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Dense gas in minihalos with masses of $10^6-10^8~M_\odot$ can shield themselves from reionization for $\sim100$ Myr after being exposed to the UV background. These self-shielded systems, often unresolved in cosmological simulations, can introduce strong absorption in quasar spectra. This paper is the first systematic study on the impact of these systems on the Ly$\alpha$ forest. We first derive the HI column density profile of photoevaporating minihalos by conducting 1D radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. We utilize these results to estimate the Ly$\alpha$ opacity from minihalos in a large-scale simulation that cannot resolve self-shielding. When the ionization rate of the background radiation is $0.03\times10^{-12}~{\rm s}^{-1}$, as expected near the end of reionization at $z\sim5.5$, we find that the incidence rate of damped Ly$\alpha$ absorbers increases by a factor of $\sim2-4$ compared to at $z=4.5$. The Ly$\alpha$ flux is, on average, suppressed by $\sim 3\%$ of its mean due to minihalos. The absorption features enhance the 1D power spectrum up to $\sim5\%$ at $k\sim0.1~h~{\rm Mpc}^{-1}~({\rm or}~10^{-3}~{\rm km}^{-1}~{\rm s})$, which is comparable to the enhancement caused by inhomogeneous reionization. The flux is particularly suppressed in the vicinity of large halos along the line-of-sight direction at separations of up to $10~h^{-1}~{\rm Mpc}$ at $r_\perp\lesssim2~h^{-1}~{\rm Mpc}$. However, these effects become much smaller for higher ionizing rates ($\gtrsim0.3\times10^{-12}~{\rm s}^{-1}$) expected in the post-reionization Universe. Our findings highlight the need to consider minihalo absorption when interpreting the Ly$\alpha$ forest at $z\gtrsim5.5$. Moreover, the sensitivity of these quantities to the ionizing background intensity can be exploited to constrain the intensity itself., Comment: 16 pages; 11 figures; Accepted for publication in ApJ

We describe the needs and opportunities for preserving cosmology datasets and simulations, and facilitating their joint analysis beyond the lifetime of individual projects. We recommend that DOE fund a new cosmology data archive center to coordinate this work across the multiple DOE computing facilities., Comment: Submitted to the Proceedings of the US Community Study on the Future of Particle Physics (Snowmass 2021). Feedback and additional co-signers are welcome

This Snowmass 2021 White Paper describes the Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4 project CMB-S4, which is designed to cross critical thresholds in our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. We provide an overview of the science case, the technical design, and project plan., Comment: Contribution to Snowmass 2021. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1908.01062, arXiv:1907.04473

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged), Comment: Submitted to the Proceedings of the US Community Study on the Future of Particle Physics (Snowmass 2021)

Cosmological data in the next decade will be characterized by high-precision, multi-wavelength measurements of thousands of square degrees of the same patches of sky. By performing multi-survey analyses that harness the correlated nature of these datasets, we will gain access to new science, and increase the precision and robustness of science being pursued by each individual survey. However, effective application of such analyses requires a qualitatively new level of investment in cross-survey infrastructure, including simulations, associated modeling, coordination of data sharing, and survey strategy. The scientific gains from this new level of investment are multiplicative, as the benefits can be reaped by even present-day instruments, and can be applied to new instruments as they come online., Comment: Contribution to Snowmass 2021

We present simulated millimeter-wavelength maps and catalogs of radio galaxies across the full sky that trace the nonlinear clustering and evolution of dark matter halos from the Websky simulation at $z<4.6$ and $M_{\rm halo}>10^{12} M_{\odot}/h$, and the accompanying framework for generating a new sample of radio galaxies from any halo catalog of positions, redshifts, and masses. Object fluxes are generated using a hybrid approach that combines (1) existing astrophysical halo models of radio galaxies from the literature to determine the positions and rank-ordering of the observed fluxes with (2) empirical models from the literature based on fits to the observed distribution of flux densities and (3) spectral indices drawn from an empirically-calibrated frequency-dependent distribution. The resulting population of radio galaxies is in excellent agreement with the number counts, polarization fractions, and distribution of spectral slopes from the data from observations at millimeter wavelengths from 20-200~GHz, including \emph{Planck}, ALMA, SPT, and ACT. Since the radio galaxies are correlated with the existing cosmic infrared background (CIB), Compton-$y$ (tSZ), and CMB lensing maps from Websky, our model makes new predictions for the cross-correlation power spectra and stacked profiles of radio galaxies and these other components. These simulations will be important for unbiased analysis of a wide variety of observables that are correlated with large-scale structure, such as gravitational lensing and SZ clusters., Comment: For code, catalogs, and maps, see https://github.com/xzackli/WebskyRadioGalaxies

The Abundance Matching Box for the Epoch of Reionization (AMBER) is a semi-numerical code for modeling the cosmic dawn. The new algorithm is not based on the excursion set formalism for reionization, but takes the novel approach of calculating the reionization-redshift field $z_\mathrm{re}(\boldsymbol{x})$ assuming that hydrogen gas encountering higher radiation intensity are photoionized earlier. Redshift values are assigned while matching the abundance of ionized mass according to a given mass-weighted ionization fraction $\bar{x}_\mathrm{i}(z)$. The code has the unique advantage of allowing users to directly specify the reionization history through the redshift midpoint $z_\mathrm{mid}$, duration $\Delta_\mathrm{z}$, and asymmetry $A_\mathrm{z}$ input parameters. The reionization process is further controlled through the minimum halo mass $M_\mathrm{min}$ for galaxy formation and the radiation mean free path $l_\mathrm{mfp}$ for radiative transfer. We implement improved methods for constructing density, velocity, halo, and radiation fields, which are essential components for modeling reionization observables. We compare AMBER with two other semi-numerical methods and find that our code more accurately reproduces the results from radiation-hydrodynamic simulations. The parallelized code is over four orders of magnitude faster than radiative transfer simulations and will efficiently enable large-volume models, full-sky mock observations, and parameter-space studies. AMBER will be made publicly available to facilitate and transform studies of the EoR., Comment: AMBER is publicly available at https://github.com/hytrac/amber

We forecast the number of galaxy clusters that can be detected via the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) signals by future cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments, primarily the wide area survey of the CMB-S4 experiment but also CMB-S4's smaller delensing survey and the proposed CMB-HD experiment. We predict that CMB-S4 will detect 75,000 clusters with its wide survey of $f_{\rm sky}$ = 50% and 14,000 clusters with its deep survey of $f_{\rm sky}$ = 3%. Of these, approximately 1350 clusters will be at $z \ge 2$, a regime that is difficult to probe by optical or X-ray surveys. We assume CMB-HD will survey the same sky as the S4-Wide{}, and find that CMB-HD will detect $\times3$ more overall and an order of magnitude more $z \ge 2$ clusters than CMB-S4. These results include galactic and extragalactic foregrounds along with atmospheric and instrumental noise. Using CMB-cluster lensing to calibrate cluster tSZ-mass scaling relation, we combine cluster counts with primary CMB to obtain cosmological constraints for a two parameter extension of the standard model ($\Lambda CDM+\sum m_{\nu}+w_{0}$). Besides constraining $\sigma(w_{0})$ to $\lesssim 1\%$, we find that both surveys can enable a $\sim 2.5-4.5\sigma$ detection of $\sum m_{\nu}$, substantially strengthening CMB-only constraints. We also study the evolution of intracluster medium by modelling the cluster virialization ${\rm v}(z)$ and find tight constraints from CMB-S4, with further factors of 3-4 improvement for CMB-HD. The binned cluster counts, Fisher matrices, and other associated products can be downloaded from https://github.com/sriniraghunathan/tSZ_cluster_forecasts., Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables; addressed minor comments from the reviewer; accepted for publication in ApJ; results can be download from https://github.com/sriniraghunathan/tSZ_cluster_forecasts

As the signal-to-noise of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) cross-correlation measurements of galaxies improves our ability to infer properties about the circumgalactic medium (CGM), we will transition from being limited by statistical uncertainties to systematic uncertainties. Using thermodynamic profiles of the CGM created from the IllustrisTNG (The Next Generation) simulations we investigate the importance of specific choices in modeling the galaxy sample. These choices include different sample selections in the simulation (stellar versus halo mass, color selections) and different fitting models (matching by the shape of the mass distribution, inclusion of a two-halo term). We forward model a mock galaxy sample into projected SZ observable profiles and fit these profiles to a generalized Navarro-Frenk-White profile using forecasted errors of the upcoming Simons Observatory experiment. We test the number of free parameters in the fits and show that this is another modeling choice that yields different results. Finally, we show how different fitting models can reproduce parameters of a fiducial profile, and show that the addition of a two-halo term and matching by the mass distribution of the sample are extremely important modeling choices to consider., Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, published in the Astrophysical Journal

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL., Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.04473

The epoch of reionization is one of the major phase transitions in the history of the universe, and is a focus of ongoing and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments with improved sensitivity to small-scale fluctuations. Reionization also represents a significant contaminant to CMB-derived cosmological parameter constraints, due to the degeneracy between the Thomson-scattering optical depth, $\tau$, and the amplitude of scalar perturbations, $A_s$. This degeneracy subsequently hinders the ability of large-scale structure data to constrain the sum of the neutrino masses, a major target for cosmology in the 2020s. In this work, we explore the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect as a probe of reionization, and show that it can be used to mitigate the optical depth degeneracy with high-sensitivity, high-resolution data from the upcoming CMB-S4 experiment. We discuss the dependence of the kSZ power spectrum on physical reionization model parameters, as well as on empirical reionization parameters, namely $\tau$ and the duration of reionization, $\Delta z$. We show that by combining the kSZ two-point function and the reconstructed kSZ four-point function, degeneracies between $\tau$ and $\Delta z$ can be strongly broken, yielding tight constraints on both parameters. We forecast $\sigma(\tau) = 0.003$ and $\sigma(\Delta z) = 0.25$ for a combination of CMB-S4 and Planck data, including detailed treatment of foregrounds and atmospheric noise. The constraint on $\tau$ is nearly identical to the cosmic-variance limit that can be achieved from large-angle CMB polarization data. The kSZ effect thus promises to yield not only detailed information about the reionization epoch, but also to enable high-precision cosmological constraints on the neutrino mass., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, comments welcome

We present a new pipeline for the efficient generation of synthetic observations of the extragalactic microwave sky, tailored to large ground-based CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory, Advanced ACTPol, SPT-3G, and CMB-S4. Such simulated observations are a key technical challenge in cosmology because of the dynamic range and accuracy required. The first part of the pipeline generates a random cosmological realization in the form of a dark matter halo catalog and matter displacement field, as seen from a given position. The halo catalog and displacement field are modeled with ellipsoidal collapse dynamics and Lagrangian perturbation theory, respectively. In the second part, the cosmological realization is converted into a set of intensity maps over the range 10 - 10^3 GHz using models based on existing observations and hydrodynamical simulations. These maps include infrared emission from dusty star forming galaxies (CIB), Comptonization of CMB photons by hot gas in groups and clusters through the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (tSZ), Doppler boosting by Thomson scattering of the CMB by bulk flows through the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (kSZ), and weak gravitational lensing of primary CMB anisotropies by the large-scale distribution of matter in the universe. After describing the pipeline and its implementation, we present the Websky maps, created from a realization of the cosmic web on our past light cone in the redshift interval 0

This paper discusses the science case for a sensitive spectro-polarimetric survey of the microwave sky. Such a survey would provide a tomographic and dynamic census of the three-dimensional distribution of hot gas, velocity flows, early metals, dust, and mass distribution in the entire Hubble volume, exploit CMB temperature and polarisation anisotropies down to fundamental limits, and track energy injection and absorption into the radiation background across cosmic times by measuring spectral distortions of the CMB blackbody emission. In addition to its exceptional capability for cosmology and fundamental physics, such a survey would provide an unprecedented view of microwave emissions at sub-arcminute to few-arcminute angular resolution in hundreds of frequency channels, a data set that would be of immense legacy value for many branches of astrophysics. We propose that this survey be carried-out with a large space mission featuring a broad-band polarised imager and a moderate resolution spectro-imager at the focus of a 3.5m aperture telescope actively cooled to about 8K, complemented with absolutely-calibrated Fourier Transform Spectrometer modules observing at degree-scale angular resolution in the 10-2000 GHz frequency range. We propose two observing modes: a survey mode to map the entire sky as well as a few selected wide fields, and an observatory mode for deeper observations of regions of specific interest., Comment: 20 pages, white paper submitted in answer to the "Voyage 2050" call to prepare the long term plan in the ESA science programme

We provide an overview of the science case, instrument configuration and project plan for the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background experiment CMB-S4, for consideration by the 2020 Decadal Survey., Comment: Project White Paper submitted to the 2020 Decadal Survey, 10 pages plus references. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1907.04473

The Simons Observatory (SO) is a ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment sited on Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert in Chile that promises to provide breakthrough discoveries in fundamental physics, cosmology, and astrophysics. Supported by the Simons Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and with contributions from collaborating institutions, SO will see first light in 2021 and start a five year survey in 2022. SO has 287 collaborators from 12 countries and 53 institutions, including 85 students and 90 postdocs. The SO experiment in its currently funded form ('SO-Nominal') consists of three 0.4 m Small Aperture Telescopes (SATs) and one 6 m Large Aperture Telescope (LAT). Optimized for minimizing systematic errors in polarization measurements at large angular scales, the SATs will perform a deep, degree-scale survey of 10% of the sky to search for the signature of primordial gravitational waves. The LAT will survey 40% of the sky with arc-minute resolution. These observations will measure (or limit) the sum of neutrino masses, search for light relics, measure the early behavior of Dark Energy, and refine our understanding of the intergalactic medium, clusters and the role of feedback in galaxy formation. With up to ten times the sensitivity and five times the angular resolution of the Planck satellite, and roughly an order of magnitude increase in mapping speed over currently operating ("Stage 3") experiments, SO will measure the CMB temperature and polarization fluctuations to exquisite precision in six frequency bands from 27 to 280 GHz. SO will rapidly advance CMB science while informing the design of future observatories such as CMB-S4., Comment: Astro2020 Decadal Project Whitepaper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1808.07445

We present the science case, reference design, and project plan for the Stage-4 ground-based cosmic microwave background experiment CMB-S4., Comment: 287 pages, 82 figures

The Cosmic Dawn and Reionization epochs remain a fundamental but challenging frontier of astrophysics and cosmology. We advocate a large-scale, multi-tracer approach to develop a comprehensive understanding of the physics that led to the formation and evolution of the first stars and galaxies. We highlight the line intensity mapping technique to trace the multi-phase reionization topology on large scales, and measure reionization history in detail. Besides 21cm, we advocate for Lya tomography mapping during the epoch of Wouthuysen-Field coupling as an additional probe of the cosmic dawn era., Comment: Astro2020 Science White Paper; 5 pages, 1 figure

In addition to being a probe of Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionization astrophysics, the 21cm line at $z>6$ is also a powerful way to constrain cosmology. Its power derives from several unique capabilities. First, the 21cm line is sensitive to energy injections into the intergalactic medium at high redshifts. It also increases the number of measurable modes compared to existing cosmological probes by orders of magnitude. Many of these modes are on smaller scales than are accessible via the CMB, and moreover have the advantage of being firmly in the linear regime (making them easy to model theoretically). Finally, the 21cm line provides access to redshifts prior to the formation of luminous objects. Together, these features of 21cm cosmology at $z>6$ provide multiple pathways toward precise cosmological constraints. These include the "marginalizing out" of astrophysical effects, the utilization of redshift space distortions, the breaking of CMB degeneracies, the identification of signatures of relative velocities between baryons and dark matter, and the discovery of unexpected signs of physics beyond the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm at high redshifts., Comment: Science white paper submitted to Decadal 2020 survey

The "cosmic dawn" refers to the period of the Universe's history when stars and black holes first formed and began heating and ionizing hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM). Though exceedingly difficult to detect directly, the first stars and black holes can be constrained indirectly through measurements of the cosmic 21-cm background, which traces the ionization state and temperature of intergalactic hydrogen gas. In this white paper, we focus on the science case for such observations, in particular those targeting redshifts z $\gtrsim$ 10 when the IGM is expected to be mostly neutral. 21-cm observations provide a unique window into this epoch and are thus critical to advancing first star and black hole science in the next decade., Comment: White paper submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey

The Dark Ages are the period between the last scattering of the cosmic microwave background and the appearance of the first luminous sources, spanning approximately 1100 < z < 30. The only known way to measure fluctuations in this era is through the 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen. Such observations have enormous potential for cosmology, because they span a large volume while the fluctuations remain linear even on small scales. Observations of 21-cm fluctuations during this era can therefore constrain fundamental aspects of our Universe, including inflation and any exotic physics of dark matter. While the observational challenges to these low-frequency 21-cm observations are enormous, especially from the terrestrial environment, they represent an important goal for cosmology., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

The epoch of reionization, when photons from early galaxies ionized the intergalactic medium about a billion years after the Big Bang, is the last major phase transition in the Universe's history. Measuring the characteristics of the transition is important for understanding early galaxies and the cosmic web and for modeling dwarf galaxies in the later Universe. But such measurements require probes of the intergalactic medium itself. Here we describe how the 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen provides a powerful probe of the reionization process and therefore important constraints on both the galaxies and intergalactic absorbers at that time. While existing experiments will make precise statistical measurements over the next decade, we argue that improved 21-cm analysis techniques - allowing imaging of the neutral gas itself - as well as improved theoretical models, are crucial for testing our understanding of this important era., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures

The early phases of galaxy formation constitute one of the most exciting frontiers in astrophysics. It is during this era that the first luminous sources reionize the intergalactic medium - the moment when structure formation affects every baryon in the Universe. Here we argue that we will obtain a complete picture of this era by combining observations of galaxies with direct measurements of the reionization process: the former will provide a detailed understanding of bright sources, while the latter will constrain the (substantial) faint source population. We further describe how optimizing the comparison of these two measurements requires near-infrared galaxy surveys covering large volumes and retaining redshift information and also improvements in 21-cm analysis, moving those experiments into the imaging regime., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures

Cosmic dawn and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) are among the least explored observational eras in cosmology: a time at which the first galaxies and supermassive black holes formed and reionized the cold, neutral Universe of the post-recombination era. With current instruments, only a handful of the brightest galaxies and quasars from that time are detectable as individual objects, due to their extreme distances. Fortunately, a multitude of multi-wavelength intensity mapping measurements, ranging from the redshifted 21 cm background in the radio to the unresolved X-ray background, contain a plethora of synergistic information about this elusive era. The coming decade will likely see direct detections of inhomogenous reionization with CMB and 21 cm observations, and a slew of other probes covering overlapping areas and complementary physical processes will provide crucial additional information and cross-validation. To maximize scientific discovery and return on investment, coordinated survey planning and joint data analysis should be a high priority, closely coupled to computational models and theoretical predictions., Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Science White Paper call

The cosmic dawn and epoch of reionization mark the time period in the universe when stars, galaxies, and blackhole seeds first formed and the intergalactic medium changed from neutral to an ionized one. Despite substantial progress with multi-wavelength observations, astrophysical process during this time period remain some of the least understood with large uncertainties on our existing models of galaxy, blackhole, and structure formation. This white paper outlines the current state of knowledge and anticipated scientific outcomes with ground and space-based astronomical facilities in the 2020s. We then propose a number of scientific goals and objectives for new facilities in late 2020s to mid 2030s that will lead to definitive measurements of key astrophysical processes in the epoch of reionization and cosmic dawn., Comment: Science White paper submitted to Astro2020 Decadal Survey

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is an imaging polarimeter that will scan the sky for 5 years in 21 frequency bands spread between 21 and 799 GHz. It will produce full-sky surveys of intensity and polarization with a final combined-map noise level of 0.87 $\mu$K arcmin for the required specifications, equivalent to 3300 Planck missions, and with our current best-estimate would have a noise level of 0.61 $\mu$K arcmin (6400 Planck missions). PICO will either determine the energy scale of inflation by detecting the tensor to scalar ratio at a level $r=5\times 10^{-4}~(5\sigma)$, or will rule out with more than $5\sigma$ all inflation models for which the characteristic scale in the potential is the Planck scale. With LSST's data it could rule out all models of slow-roll inflation. PICO will detect the sum of neutrino masses at $>4\sigma$, constrain the effective number of light particle species with $\Delta N_{\rm eff}<0.06~(2\sigma)$, and elucidate processes affecting the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring the optical depth to reionization with errors limited by cosmic variance and by constraining the evolution of the amplitude of linear fluctuations $\sigma_{8}(z)$ with sub-percent accuracy. Cross-correlating PICO's map of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect with LSST's gold sample of galaxies will precisely trace the evolution of thermal pressure with $z$. PICO's maps of the Milky Way will be used to determine the make up of galactic dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation efficiency. With 21 full sky legacy maps in intensity and polarization, which cannot be obtained in any other way, the mission will enrich many areas of astrophysics. PICO is the only single-platform instrument with the combination of sensitivity, angular resolution, frequency bands, and control of systematic effects that can deliver this compelling, timely, and broad science., Comment: Probe class mission study submitted to NASA and 2020 Decadal Panel. Executive summary: 2.5 pages; Science: 28 pages; Total: 50 pages, 36 figures

We present a detailed description and validation of our massively-parallel update to the mass-Peak Patch method, a fully predictive initial-space algorithm to quickly generate dark matter halo catalogues in very large cosmological volumes. We perform an extensive systematic comparison to a suite of N-body simulations covering a broad range of redshifts and simulation resolutions, and find that, without any parameter fitting, our method is able to generally reproduce N-body results while typically using over 3 orders of magnitude less CPU time, and a fraction of the memory cost. Instead of calculating the full non-linear gravitational collapse determined by an N-body simulation, the mass-Peak Patch method finds an overcomplete set of just-collapsed structures around a hierarchy of density-peak points by coarse-grained (homogeneous) ellipsoidal dynamics. A complete set of mass-peaks, or halos, is then determined by exclusion of overlapping patches, and second order Lagrangian displacements are used to move the halos to their final positions and to give their flow velocities. Our results show that the mass-Peak Patch method is well-suited for creating large ensembles of halo catalogues to mock cosmological surveys, and to aid in complex statistical interpretations of cosmological models., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome!

Line-intensity mapping (LIM or IM) is an emerging field of observational work, with strong potential to fit into a larger effort to probe large-scale structure and small-scale astrophysical phenomena using multiple complementary tracers. Taking full advantage of such complementarity means, in part, undertaking line-intensity surveys with galaxy surveys in mind. We consider the potential for detection of a cross-correlation signal between COMAP and blind surveys based on photometric redshifts (as in COSMOS) or based on spectroscopic data (as with the HETDEX survey of Lyman-$\alpha$ emitters). We find that obtaining $\sigma_z/(1+z)\lesssim0.003$ accuracy in redshifts and $\gtrsim10^{-4}$ sources per Mpc$^3$ with spectroscopic redshift determination should enable a CO-galaxy cross spectrum detection significance at least twice that of the CO auto spectrum. Either a future targeted spectroscopic survey or a blind survey like HETDEX may be able to meet both of these requirements., Comment: 19 pages + appendix (31 pages total), 16 figures, 6 tables; accepted for publication in ApJ

The Simons Observatory (SO) is a new cosmic microwave background experiment being built on Cerro Toco in Chile, due to begin observations in the early 2020s. We describe the scientific goals of the experiment, motivate the design, and forecast its performance. SO will measure the temperature and polarization anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background in six frequency bands: 27, 39, 93, 145, 225 and 280 GHz. The initial configuration of SO will have three small-aperture 0.5-m telescopes (SATs) and one large-aperture 6-m telescope (LAT), with a total of 60,000 cryogenic bolometers. Our key science goals are to characterize the primordial perturbations, measure the number of relativistic species and the mass of neutrinos, test for deviations from a cosmological constant, improve our understanding of galaxy evolution, and constrain the duration of reionization. The SATs will target the largest angular scales observable from Chile, mapping ~10% of the sky to a white noise level of 2 $\mu$K-arcmin in combined 93 and 145 GHz bands, to measure the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, at a target level of $\sigma(r)=0.003$. The LAT will map ~40% of the sky at arcminute angular resolution to an expected white noise level of 6 $\mu$K-arcmin in combined 93 and 145 GHz bands, overlapping with the majority of the LSST sky region and partially with DESI. With up to an order of magnitude lower polarization noise than maps from the Planck satellite, the high-resolution sky maps will constrain cosmological parameters derived from the damping tail, gravitational lensing of the microwave background, the primordial bispectrum, and the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects, and will aid in delensing the large-angle polarization signal to measure the tensor-to-scalar ratio. The survey will also provide a legacy catalog of 16,000 galaxy clusters and more than 20,000 extragalactic sources., Comment: This paper presents an overview of the Simons Observatory science goals, details about the instrument will be presented in a companion paper. The author contribution to this paper is available at https://simonsobservatory.org/publications.php (Abstract abridged) -- matching version published in JCAP

We develop a framework for joint constraints on the CO luminosity function based on power spectra (PS) and voxel intensity distributions (VID), and apply this to simulations of COMAP, a CO intensity mapping experiment. This Bayesian framework is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler coupled to a Gaussian likelihood with a joint PS + VID covariance matrix computed from a large number of fiducial simulations, and re-calibrated with a small number of simulations per MCMC step. The simulations are based on dark matter halos from fast peak patch simulations combined with the $L_\text{CO}(M_\text{halo})$ model of Li et al. (2016). We find that the relative power to constrain the CO luminosity function depends on the luminosity range of interest. In particular, the VID is more sensitive at both small and large luminosities, while the PS is more sensitive at intermediate luminosities. The joint analysis is superior to using either observable separately. When averaging over CO luminosities ranging between $L_\text{CO} = 10^4-10^7L_\odot$, and over 10 cosmological realizations of COMAP Phase 2, the uncertainties (in dex) are larger by 58 % and 30 % for the PS and VID, respectively, when compared to the joint analysis (PS + VID). This method is generally applicable to any other random field, with a complicated likelihood, as long a fast simulation procedure is available., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures. As accepted to ApJ

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is a NASA-funded study of a Probe-class mission concept. The top-level science objectives are to probe the physics of the Big Bang by measuring or constraining the energy scale of inflation, probe fundamental physics by measuring the number of light particles in the Universe and the sum of neutrino masses, to measure the reionization history of the Universe, and to understand the mechanisms driving the cosmic star formation history, and the physics of the galactic magnetic field. PICO would have multiple frequency bands between 21 and 799 GHz, and would survey the entire sky, producing maps of the polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation, of galactic dust, of synchrotron radiation, and of various populations of point sources. Several instrument configurations, optical systems, cooling architectures, and detector and readout technologies have been and continue to be considered in the development of the mission concept. We will present a snapshot of the baseline mission concept currently under development., Comment: 11 pages, 5 Figure, submitted to SPIE, Proceedings of the Conference on Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation, 2018

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is a probe-class mission concept currently under study by NASA. PICO will probe the physics of the Big Bang and the energy scale of inflation, constrain the sum of neutrino masses, measure the growth of structures in the universe, and constrain its reionization history by making full sky maps of the cosmic microwave background with sensitivity 80 times higher than the Planck space mission. With bands at 21-799 GHz and arcmin resolution at the highest frequencies, PICO will make polarization maps of Galactic synchrotron and dust emission to observe the role of magnetic fields in Milky Way's evolution and star formation. We discuss PICO's optical system, focal plane, and give current best case noise estimates. The optical design is a two-reflector optimized open-Dragone design with a cold aperture stop. It gives a diffraction limited field of view (DLFOV) with throughput of 910 square cm sr at 21 GHz. The large 82 square degree DLFOV hosts 12,996 transition edge sensor bolometers distributed in 21 frequency bands and maintained at 0.1 K. We use focal plane technologies that are currently implemented on operating CMB instruments including three-color multi-chroic pixels and multiplexed readouts. To our knowledge, this is the first use of an open-Dragone design for mm-wave astrophysical observations, and the only monolithic CMB instrument to have such a broad frequency coverage. With current best case estimate polarization depth of 0.65 microK(CMB}-arcmin over the entire sky, PICO is the most sensitive CMB instrument designed to date., Comment: 12 pages, 8 Figures, Submitted to SPIE, Proceedings of the 2018 Conference on Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation

We compare the measurements of the bispectrum and the estimate of its covariance obtained from a set of different methods for the efficient generation of approximate dark matter halo catalogs to the same quantities obtained from full N-body simulations. To this purpose we employ a large set of three-hundred realisations of the same cosmology for each method, run with matching initial conditions in order to reduce the contribution of cosmic variance to the comparison. In addition, we compare how the error on cosmological parameters such as linear and nonlinear bias parameters depends on the approximate method used for the determination of the bispectrum variance. As general result, most methods provide errors within 10% of the errors estimated from N-body simulations. Exceptions are those methods requiring calibration of the clustering amplitude but restrict this to two-point statistics. Finally we test how our results are affected by being limited to a few hundreds measurements from N-body simulation, and therefore to the bispectrum variance, by comparing with a larger set of several thousands realisations performed with one approximate method., Comment: Additional results with respect to v1, new section and new figures added. 25 pages, 1 table 18 figures

We study the accuracy of several approximate methods for gravitational dynamics in terms of halo power spectrum multipoles and their estimated covariance matrix. We propagate the differences in covariances into parameter constrains related to growth rate of structure, Alcock-Paczynski distortions and biasing. We consider seven methods in three broad categories: algorithms that solve for halo density evolution deterministically using Lagrangian trajectories (ICE-COLA, Pinocchio and PeakPatch), methods that rely on halo assignment schemes onto dark-matter overdensities calibrated with a target N-body run (Halogen, Patchy) and two standard assumptions about the full density PDF (Gaussian and Lognormal). We benchmark their performance against a set of three hundred N-body simulations, running similar sets of approximate simulations with matched initial conditions, for each method. We find that most methods reproduce the monopole to within $5\%$, while residuals for the quadrupole are sometimes larger and scale dependent. The variance of the multipoles is typically reproduced within $10\%$. Overall, we find that covariances built from approximate simulations yield errors on model parameters within $10\%$ of those from the N-body based covariance., Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, replaced to match accepted MNRAS version. Results on parameter errors changed

This paper is the first in a set that analyses the covariance matrices of clustering statistics obtained from several approximate methods for gravitational structure formation. We focus here on the covariance matrices of anisotropic two-point correlation function measurements. Our comparison includes seven approximate methods, which can be divided into three categories: predictive methods that follow the evolution of the linear density field deterministically (ICE-COLA, Peak Patch, and Pinocchio), methods that require a calibration with N-body simulations (Patchy and Halogen), and simpler recipes based on assumptions regarding the shape of the probability distribution function (PDF) of density fluctuations (log-normal and Gaussian density fields). We analyse the impact of using covariance estimates obtained from these approximate methods on cosmological analyses of galaxy clustering measurements, using as a reference the covariances inferred from a set of full N-body simulations. We find that all approximate methods can accurately recover the mean parameter values inferred using the N-body covariances. The obtained parameter uncertainties typically agree with the corresponding N-body results within 5% for our lower mass threshold, and 10% for our higher mass threshold. Furthermore, we find that the constraints for some methods can differ by up to 20% depending on whether the halo samples used to define the covariance matrices are defined by matching the mass, number density, or clustering amplitude of the parent N-body samples. The results of our configuration-space analysis indicate that most approximate methods provide similar results, with no single method clearly outperforming the others., Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures. Replaced to match accepted MNRAS version. Included Kullback-Leibler divergence

Enhanced density fluctuations on small scales would lead to the formation of numerous dark matter minihalos, so limits on the minihalo abundance can place upper bounds on the small-scale primordial power spectrum. In particular, the ultracompact minihalo (UCMH), a dark matter structure hypothesized to possess a $\rho\propto r^{-9/4}$ density profile due to its formation at $z\geq 1000$, has been used to establish an upper bound on the primordial power spectrum at scales smaller than 2 Mpc. The extreme slope of this density profile amplifies the observational signals of UCMHs. However, we recently showed via N-body simulations that the $\rho\propto r^{-9/4}$ density profile does not develop in realistic formation scenarios, throwing UCMH-derived power spectrum constraints into question. Instead, minihalos develop shallower inner profiles with power-law indices between $-3/2$ and $-1$. In this paper, we expand on that result and discuss its implications. Using a model that is calibrated to simulation results and predicts halo structures in spiked power spectra based on their formation times, we calculate new upper bounds on the primordial power spectrum based on limits on the dark matter annihilation rate within the Galaxy. We find that despite assuming shallower profiles, this minihalo model actually yields stronger constraints than the previous UCMH picture owing to its inclusion of all minihalos instead of only the earliest-forming ones., Comment: 15 pages plus appendices; 22 figures. Expanded discussion of power spectrum constraints; matches published version

Ultracompact minihalos (UCMHs) have emerged as a valuable probe of the primordial power spectrum of density fluctuations at small scales. UCMHs are expected to form at early times in regions with ${\delta\rho/\rho \gtrsim 10^{-3}}$, and they are theorized to possess an extremely compact ${\rho\propto r^{-9/4}}$ radial density profile, which enhances their observable signatures. Nonobservation of UCMHs can thus constrain the primordial power spectrum. Using $N$-body simulations to study the collapse of extreme density peaks at ${z \simeq 1000}$, we show that UCMHs forming under realistic conditions do not develop the ${\rho\propto r^{-9/4}}$ profile and instead develop either ${\rho\propto r^{-3/2}}$ or ${\rho\propto r^{-1}}$ inner density profiles depending on the shape of the power spectrum. We also demonstrate via idealized simulations that self-similarity---the absence of a scale length---is necessary to produce a halo with the ${\rho\propto r^{-9/4}}$ profile, and we argue that this implies such halos cannot form from a Gaussian primordial density field. Prior constraints derived from UCMH nonobservation must be reworked in light of this discovery. Although the shallower density profile reduces UCMH visibility, our findings reduce their signal by as little as $\mathcal O(10^{-2})$ while allowing later-forming halos to be considered, which suggests that new constraints could be significantly stronger., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures; minor changes to match published version

Poorly understood "baryonic physics" impacts our ability to predict the power spectrum of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. We study this in one sample high resolution simulation of galaxy formation and feedback, Illustris. The high resolution of Illustris allows us to probe the kSZ power spectrum on multipoles $\ell =10^3-3\times 10^4$. Strong AGN feedback in Illustris nearly wipes out gas fluctuations at $k\gtrsim1~h~\rm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and at late times, likely somewhat under predicting the kSZ power generated at $z\lesssim 1$. The post-reionization kSZ power spectrum for Illustris is well-fit by $\mathcal{D}^{z<6}_{\ell} = 1.38[\ell/3000]^{0.21}~\mu K^2$ over $3000\lesssim\ell\lesssim10000$, somewhat lower than most other reported values but consistent with the analysis of Shaw et al. Our analysis of the bias of free electrons reveals subtle effects associated with the multi-phase gas physics and stellar fractions that affect even linear scales. In particular there are fewer electrons in biased galaxies, due to gas cooling and star formation, and this leads to an electron bias less than one even at low wavenumbers. The combination of bias and electron fraction that determines the overall suppression is relatively constant, $f_e^2b^2_{e0} \sim 0.7$, but more simulations are needed to see if this is Illustris-specific. By separating the kSZ power into different terms, we find at least $6\, (10)\%$ of the signal at $\ell=3000\, (10000)$ comes from non-Gaussian connected four-point density and velocity correlations, $\left<\delta v \delta v\right>_{c}$, even without correcting for the Illustris simulation box size. A challenge going forward will be to accurately model long-wave velocity modes simultaneously with Illustris-like high resolution to capture the complexities of galaxy formation and its correlations with large scale flows., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure, submitted to ApJ

Following the first two annual intensity mapping workshops at Stanford in March 2016 and Johns Hopkins in June 2017, we report on the recent advances in theory, instrumentation and observation that were presented in these meetings and some of the opportunities and challenges that were identified looking forward. With preliminary detections of CO, [CII], Lya and low-redshift 21cm, and a host of experiments set to go online in the next few years, the field is rapidly progressing on all fronts, with great anticipation for a flood of new exciting results. This current snapshot provides an efficient reference for experts in related fields and a useful resource for nonspecialists. We begin by introducing the concept of line-intensity mapping and then discuss the broad array of science goals that will be enabled, ranging from the history of star formation, reionization and galaxy evolution to measuring baryon acoustic oscillations at high redshift and constraining theories of dark matter, modified gravity and dark energy. After reviewing the first detections reported to date, we survey the experimental landscape, presenting the parameters and capabilities of relevant instruments such as COMAP, mmIMe, AIM-CO, CCAT-p, TIME, CONCERTO, CHIME, HIRAX, HERA, STARFIRE, MeerKAT/SKA and SPHEREx. Finally, we describe recent theoretical advances: different approaches to modeling line luminosity functions, several techniques to separate the desired signal from foregrounds, statistical methods to analyze the data, and frameworks to generate realistic intensity map simulations., Comment: 99 pages, 48 figures; Endorsement and any comments welcome; To be submitted to Physics Reports