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Between the 16 and 18 October 2003, some amounts of precipitation greater than 225mm and sea waves higher than 8.5m were recorded in Catalonia (NE Spain) and near its coast. Some rivers in the NE of the region were overflowed and the sea swell produced several damages near the coast. In order to analyse this case and to improve the forecasting of events like this, two methodologies have been applied: one deterministic and another one, probabilistic. The deterministic analysis has been made by using the MM5 mesoscale model. A 48 h simulation has been designed for three domains connected with two way nesting and having 54, 18, 6 km horizontal grid resolution and vertical resolution of 23 levels, and it has been initialised with the NCEP Analyses. The simulation suggests that orography played an important role on the precipitation generation (maxima were located where the wind at low levels impinged on the mountain ranges perpendicularly). The strong pressure gradient produced in the North of Catalonia and West part of the Gulf of Lyon, was the responsible of the great marine alteration. On the other hand, the 6 km resolution precipitation forecast for Catalonia is accurate, since it shows a spatial distribution and amounts quite similar to the observations obtained from 315 automatic rain gauges. The analogous technique applied here, considers the meteorological situations similar to the current one, in terms of the 850 and 1000 hPa geopotential fields at 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC from the NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis for the period 1958-2003. Two windows have been considered, the first one from 60° N to 30° N and from 30° W to 30° E, and the second one, centred in Catalonia, from 45° N to 37.5° N and from 5° W to 10° E. The best 100 analogous have been selected and the comparison of the results with those obtained for other heavy rainfall events has been also done. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Montseny brook newt ( Calotriton arnoldi ) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km 2 holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi . We used the rainfall-runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near-future (2031-2050) and far-future (2081-2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation., Competing Interests: None declared.