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919 results on '"Allen, Myles"'

4. Early NRS Leg and Back Thresholds Predict Clinical Recovery after MIS Transforaminal Lumbar Interbody Fusion for Degenerative Spine Disease

Author

DiSilvestro, Kevin J., Bay, Annika, Kwas, Cole T., Asada, Tomoyuki, Hirase, Takashi, Zhang, Joshua, Doran, William G., Singh, Nishtha, Durbas, Atahan, Araghi, Kasra, Tuma, Olivia C., Korsun, Maximillian K., Kim, Eric T., Simon, Chad Z., Zhao, Eric R., Allen, Myles RJ, Mai, Eric, Subramanian, Tejas, Iyer, Sravisht, and Qureshi, Sheeraz A.

Published
2024
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6. Predictors for Failure to Respond to Erector Spinae Plane Block Following Minimally Invasive Transforaminal Lumbar Interbody Fusion

Author

Mai, Eric, Zhang, Joshua, Lu, Amy Z., Bovonratwet, Patawut, Kim, Eric, Simon, Chad Z., Kwas, Cole, Allen, Myles, Asada, Tomoyuki, Singh, Nishtha, Tuma, Olivia, Araghi, Kasra, Korsun, Maximilian, Kim, Yeo Eun, Heuer, Annika, Vaishnav, Avani, Dowdell, James, Wetmore, Douglas S., Qureshi, Sheeraz A., and Iyer, Sravisht

Published
2024
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7. Preoperative Physical Therapy is Associated with Decreased Length of Stay and Improved Postoperative Mobility in Patients with Sarcopenia Undergoing Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery

Author

Hirase, Takashi, Lovecchio, Francis, Allen, Myles, Achebe, Chukwuebuka C., Mazzucco, Michael, Uzzo, Robert N., Kazarian, Gregory S., Asada, Tomoyuki, Nakarai, Hiroyuki, Subramanian, Tejas, Simon, Chad, Durbas, Atahan, Kaidi, Austin, Araghi, Kasra, Samuel, Justin, Kwas, Cole, Albert, Todd J., and Kim, Han Jo

Published
2024
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8. Impact of Preoperative Symptom Duration on Patient-Reported Outcomes Following Cervical Disc Replacement for Cervical Radiculopathy

Author

Mai, Eric, Kim, Eric, Kaidi, Austin, Subramanian, Tejas, Simon, Chad Z., Asada, Tomoyuki, Kwas, Cole, Zhang, Joshua, Araghi, Kasra, Singh, Nishtha, Tuma, Olivia, Korsun, Maximilian, Allen, Myles, Heuer, Annika, Sheha, Evan D., Dowdell, James, Huang, Russel C., Albert, Todd J., Qureshi, Sheeraz A., and Iyer, Sravisht

Published
2024
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10. Limited Improvement with Minimally Invasive Lumbar Decompression Alone for Degenerative Scoliosis with Cobb Angle over 20 Degrees: The Impact of Decompression Location

Author

Asada, Tomoyuki, Simon, Chad Z., Singh, Nishtha, Tuma, Olivia, Subramanian, Tejas, Araghi, Kasra, Lu, Amy Z., Mai, Eric, Kim, Yeo Eun, Allen, Myles R J., Korsun, Maximilian, Zhang, Joshua, Kwas, Cole, Singh, Sumedha, Dowdell, James, Sheha, Evan D., Qureshi, Sheeraz A., and Iyer, Sravisht

Published
2024
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11. The Impact of Posterior Intervertebral Osteophytes on PROMs Following L5-S1 ALIF and TLIF

Author

Zhao, Eric, Hirase, Takashi, Kim, Andrew G., Du, Jerry Y., Amen, Troy B., Araghi, Kasra, Subramanian, Tejas, Kamil, Robert, Shahi, Pratyush, Fourman, Mitchell S., Asada, Tomoyuki, Simon, Chad Z., Singh, Nishtha, Korsun, Maximilian, Tuma, Olivia, Zhang, Joshua, Lu, Amy Z., Mai, Eric, Kim, Yeo Eun, Allen, Myles R J., Kwas, Cole, Dowdell, James, Sheha, Evan D., Qureshi, Sheeraz, and Iyer, Sravisht

Published
2024
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13. Short-segment fusion versus isolated decompression in lumbar spinal canal stenosis patients with Cobb angles over 20 degrees

Author

Asada, Tomoyuki, Simon, Chad Z., Durbas, Atahan, Allen, Myles R.J., DiSilvestro, Kevin J., Hirase, Takashi, Singh, Nishtha, Bovonratwet, Patawut, Bay, Annika, Subramanian, Tejas, Mai, Eric, Kim, Yeo Eun, Korsun, Maximillian K., Tuma, Olivia C., Araghi, Kasra, Zhang, Joshua, Kim, Eric T., Kwas, Cole T., Lu, Amy Z., Vaishnav, Avani S., Dowdell, James E., Sheha, Evan D., Qureshi, Sheeraz A., and Iyer, Sravisht

Published
2024
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14. Sustainable financing of permanent CO2 disposal through a Carbon Takeback Obligation

Author

Jenkins, Stuart, Mitchell-Larson, Eli, Haszeldine, Stuart, and Allen, Myles

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

Unless there is immediate, unprecedented, reduction in global demand for carbon-intensive energy and products, then capture and permanent storage of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually will be needed before mid-century to meet Paris Agreement goals. Yet competition from cheaper, temporary, carbon storage means that permanent disposal remains starved of investment, currently representing about 0.1% of Energy and Industrial Process (EIP) emissions. This stored fraction must reach 100% to stop EIPs causing global warming. Here we show that a cost-effective transition can occur by mandating an increasing stored fraction through a progressive Carbon Takeback Obligation (CTO) on fossil fuel producers and importers. Projected costs of storage to the consumer are lower than pricing carbon emissions in conventional 1.5{\deg}C scenarios until the 2040s, and comparable or lower thereafter. A CTO combined with measures to reduce CO2 production would deliver the lowest-risk pathway to achieving net zero., Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, SI available on request

Published
2020

18. The Attribution of February Extremes over North America: A Forecast-Based Storyline Study.

Author

Lee, Donghyun, Sparrow, Sarah, Leach, Nicholas, Osprey, Scott, Lee, Jinah, and Allen, Myles

Subjects
ANTHROPOGENIC effects on nature, LEAD time (Supply chain management), HEAT waves (Meteorology), ATMOSPHERIC models, SURFACE temperature
Abstract

The importance of extreme event attribution rises as climate change causes severe damage to populations resulting from unprecedented events. In February 2019, a planetary wave shifted along the U.S.–Canadian border, simultaneously leading to troughing with anomalous cold events and ridging over Alaska and northern Canada with abnormal warm events. Also, a dry-stabilized anticyclonic circulation over low latitudes induced warm extreme events over Mexico and Florida. Most attribution studies compare the climate model simulations under natural or actual forcing conditions and assess probabilistically from a climatological point of view. However, in this study, we use multiple ensembles from an operational forecast model, promising statistical as well as dynamically constrained attribution assessment, often referred to as the storyline approach to extreme event attribution. In the globally averaged results, increasing CO2 concentrations lead to distinct warming signals at the surface, resulting mainly from diabatic heating. Our study finds that CO2-induced warming eventually affects the possibility of extreme events in North America, quantifying the impact of anthropogenic forcing over less than a week's forecast simulation. Our study assesses the validity of the storyline approach conditional on the forecast lead times, which is hindered by rising noise in CO2 signals and the declining performance of the forecast model. The forecast-based storyline approach is valid for at least half of the land area within a 6-day lead time before the target extreme occurrence. Our attribution results highlight the importance of achieving net-zero emissions ahead of schedule to reduce the occurrence of severe heatwaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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20. The meaning of net zero and how to get it right

Author

Fankhauser, Sam, Smith, Stephen M., Allen, Myles, Axelsson, Kaya, Hale, Thomas, Hepburn, Cameron, Kendall, J. Michael, Khosla, Radhika, Lezaun, Javier, Mitchell-Larson, Eli, Obersteiner, Michael, Rajamani, Lavanya, Rickaby, Rosalind, Seddon, Nathalie, and Wetzer, Thom

Published
2022
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21. Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets

Author

Allen, Myles R., Peters, Glen P., Shine, Keith P., Azar, Christian, Balcombe, Paul, Boucher, Olivier, Cain, Michelle, Ciais, Philippe, Collins, William, Forster, Piers M., Frame, Dave J., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fyson, Claire, Gasser, Thomas, Hare, Bill, Jenkins, Stuart, Hamburg, Steven P., Johansson, Daniel J. A., Lynch, John, Macey, Adrian, Morfeldt, Johannes, Nauels, Alexander, Ocko, Ilissa, Oppenheimer, Michael, Pacala, Stephen W., Pierrehumbert, Raymond, Rogelj, Joeri, Schaeffer, Michiel, Schleussner, Carl F., Shindell, Drew, Skeie, Ragnhild B., Smith, Stephen M., and Tanaka, Katsumasa

Published
2022
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22. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Author

Forster, Piers M., primary, Smith, Chris, additional, Walsh, Tristram, additional, Lamb, William F., additional, Lamboll, Robin, additional, Hall, Bradley, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Ribes, Aurélien, additional, Rosen, Debbie, additional, Gillett, Nathan P., additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, von Schuckmann, Karina, additional, Trewin, Blair, additional, Allen, Myles, additional, Andrew, Robbie, additional, Betts, Richard A., additional, Borger, Alex, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Broersma, Jiddu A., additional, Buontempo, Carlo, additional, Burgess, Samantha, additional, Cagnazzo, Chiara, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Gettelman, Andrew, additional, Gütschow, Johannes, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jenkins, Stuart, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Kadow, Christopher, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Killick, Rachel E., additional, Krummel, Paul B., additional, Minx, Jan C., additional, Myhre, Gunnar, additional, Naik, Vaishali, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Pirani, Anna, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Szopa, Sophie, additional, Thorne, Peter, additional, Kovilakam, Mahesh V. M., additional, Majamäki, Elisa, additional, Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka, additional, van Marle, Margreet, additional, Hoesly, Rachel M., additional, Rohde, Robert, additional, Schumacher, Dominik, additional, van der Werf, Guido, additional, Vose, Russell, additional, Zickfeld, Kirsten, additional, Zhang, Xuebin, additional, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, additional, and Zhai, Panmao, additional

Published
2024
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23. Level-specific Comparison of 3D Navigated and Robotic Arm-Guided Screw Placement: An Accuracy Assessment of 1210 Pedicle Screws in Lumbar Surgery

Author

Asada, Tomoyuki, primary, Subramanian, Tejas, additional, Simon, Chad Z., additional, Singh, Nishtha, additional, Hirase, Takashi, additional, Araghi, Kasra, additional, Lu, Amy Z., additional, Mai, Eric, additional, Kim, Yeo Eun, additional, Tuma, Olivia, additional, Allen, Myles R J, additional, Kim, Eric, additional, Korsun, Maximilian, additional, Zhang, Joshua, additional, Kwas, Cole, additional, Dowdell, James, additional, Iyer, Sravisht, additional, and Qureshi, Sheeraz A., additional

Published
2024
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26. Supplementary material to "fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections"

Author

Smith, Chris, primary, Cummins, Donald P., additional, Fredriksen, Hege-Beate, additional, Nicholls, Zebedee, additional, Meinshausen, Malte, additional, Allen, Myles, additional, Jenkins, Stuart, additional, Leach, Nicholas, additional, Mathison, Camilla, additional, and Partanen, Antti-Ilari, additional

Published
2024
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29. Operationalizing the net-negative carbon economy

Author

Bednar, Johannes, Obersteiner, Michael, Baklanov, Artem, Thomson, Marcus, Wagner, Fabian, Geden, Oliver, and Allen, Myles

Subjects
Emissions credit trading -- Analysis, Air quality management -- Economic aspects -- Management, Carbon rationing -- Analysis -- Management, Company business management, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will probably be exhausted within this decade.sup.1,2. Carbon debt.sup.3 generated thereafter will need to be compensated by net-negative emissions.sup.4. However, economic policy instruments to guarantee potentially very costly net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) have not yet been devised. Here we propose intertemporal instruments to provide the basis for widely applied carbon taxes and emission trading systems to finance a net-negative carbon economy.sup.5. We investigate an idealized market approach to incentivize the repayment of previously accrued carbon debt by establishing the responsibility of emitters for the net removal of carbon dioxide through 'carbon removal obligations' (CROs). Inherent risks, such as the risk of default by carbon debtors, are addressed by pricing atmospheric CO.sub.2 storage through interest on carbon debt. In contrast to the prevailing literature on emission pathways, we find that interest payments for CROs induce substantially more-ambitious near-term decarbonization that is complemented by earlier and less-aggressive deployment of CDR. We conclude that CROs will need to become an integral part of the global climate policy mix if we are to ensure the viability of ambitious climate targets and an equitable distribution of mitigation efforts across generations. To enable net-negative CO.sub.2 emissions, the repayment of previously accrued carbon debt by establishing the responsibility for the net removal of CO.sub.2 by carbon-emitting parties through carbon removal obligations is necessary., Author(s): Johannes Bednar [sup.1] [sup.2] , Michael Obersteiner [sup.1] [sup.2] , Artem Baklanov [sup.1] [sup.3] , Marcus Thomson [sup.4] , Fabian Wagner [sup.1] , Oliver Geden [sup.1] [sup.5] , Myles [...]

Published
2021
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31. Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

Author

Mitchell, Daniel, AchutaRao, Krishna, Allen, Myles, Bethke, Ingo, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Forster, Piers M, Fuglestvedt, Jan, Gillett, Nathan, Haustein, Karsten, Ingram, William, Iversen, Trond, Kharin, Viatcheslav, Klingaman, Nicholas, Massey, Neil, Fischer, Erich, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Scinocca, John, Seland, Øyvind, Shiogama, Hideo, Shuckburgh, Emily, Sparrow, Sarah, Stone, Dáithí, Uhe, Peter, Wallom, David, Wehner, Michael, and Zaaboul, Rashyd

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Earth sciences
Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006-2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.

Published
2017

33. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023 : annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Author

Forster, Piers M., Smith, Chris, Walsh, Tristram, Lamb, William F., Lamboll, Robin, Hall, Bradley, Hauser, Mathias, Ribes, Aurélien, Rosen, Debbie, Gillett, Nathan P., Palmer, Matthew D., Rogelj, Joeri, Von Schuckmann, Karina, Trewin, Blair, Allen, Myles, Andrew, Robbie, Betts, Richard A., Borger, Alex, Boyer, Tim, Broersma, Jiddu A., Buontempo, Carlo, Burgess, Samantha, Cagnazzo, Chiara, Cheng, Lijing, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gettelman, Andrew, Gütschow, Johannes, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jenkins, Stuart, Lan, Xin, Morice, Colin, Mühle, Jens, Kadow, Christopher, Kennedy, John, Killick, Rachel E., Krummel, Paul B., Minx, Jan C., Myhre, Gunnar, Naik, Vaishali, Peters, Glen P., Pirani, Anna, Pongratz, Julia, Schleussner, Carl Friedrich, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Szopa, Sophie, Thorne, Peter, Kovilakam, Mahesh V.M., Majamäki, Elisa, Jalkanen, Jukka Pekka, Van Marle, Margreet, Hoesly, Rachel M., Rohde, Robert, Schumacher, Dominik, Van Der Werf, Guido, Vose, Russell, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Zhang, Xuebin, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Zhai, Panmao, Forster, Piers M., Smith, Chris, Walsh, Tristram, Lamb, William F., Lamboll, Robin, Hall, Bradley, Hauser, Mathias, Ribes, Aurélien, Rosen, Debbie, Gillett, Nathan P., Palmer, Matthew D., Rogelj, Joeri, Von Schuckmann, Karina, Trewin, Blair, Allen, Myles, Andrew, Robbie, Betts, Richard A., Borger, Alex, Boyer, Tim, Broersma, Jiddu A., Buontempo, Carlo, Burgess, Samantha, Cagnazzo, Chiara, Cheng, Lijing, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gettelman, Andrew, Gütschow, Johannes, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jenkins, Stuart, Lan, Xin, Morice, Colin, Mühle, Jens, Kadow, Christopher, Kennedy, John, Killick, Rachel E., Krummel, Paul B., Minx, Jan C., Myhre, Gunnar, Naik, Vaishali, Peters, Glen P., Pirani, Anna, Pongratz, Julia, Schleussner, Carl Friedrich, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Szopa, Sophie, Thorne, Peter, Kovilakam, Mahesh V.M., Majamäki, Elisa, Jalkanen, Jukka Pekka, Van Marle, Margreet, Hoesly, Rachel M., Rohde, Robert, Schumacher, Dominik, Van Der Werf, Guido, Vose, Russell, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Zhang, Xuebin, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, and Zhai, Panmao

Abstract

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5-10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014-2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850-1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Humaninduced w

Published
2024

34. Nature-based solutions can help cool the planet -- if we act now

Author

Girardin, Cécile A. J., Jenkins, Stuart, Seddon, Nathalie, Allen, Myles, Lewis, Simon L., Wheeler, Charlotte E., and Griscom, Bronson W.

Subjects
Cooling -- Methods, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

Analysis suggests that to limit global temperature rise, we must slash emissions and invest now to protect, manage and restore ecosystems and land for the future. Analysis suggests that to limit global temperature rise, we must slash emissions and invest now to protect, manage and restore ecosystems and land for the future., Author(s): Cécile A. J. Girardin, Stuart Jenkins, Nathalie Seddon, Myles Allen, Simon L. Lewis, Charlotte E. Wheeler, Bronson W. Griscom, Yadvinder Malhi Author Affiliations: Nature-based solutions can help cool the [...]

Published
2021
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38. AERA-MIP: Emission pathways, remaining budgets and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC global warming stabilization

Author

Silvy, Yona, primary, Frölicher, Thomas L., additional, Terhaar, Jens, additional, Joos, Fortunat, additional, Burger, Friedrich A., additional, Lacroix, Fabrice, additional, Allen, Myles, additional, Bernadello, Raffaele, additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Brovkin, Victor, additional, Buzan, Jonathan R., additional, Cadule, Patricia, additional, Dix, Martin, additional, Dunne, John, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Georgievski, Goran, additional, Hajima, Tomohiro, additional, Jenkins, Stuart, additional, Kawamiya, Michio, additional, Kiang, Nancy Y., additional, Lapin, Vladimir, additional, Lee, Donghyun, additional, Lerner, Paul, additional, Mengis, Nadine, additional, Monteiro, Estela A., additional, Paynter, David, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Romanou, Anastasia, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Sparrow, Sarah, additional, Stofferahn, Eric, additional, Tjiputra, Jerry, additional, Tourigny, Etienne, additional, and Ziehn, Tilo, additional

Published
2024
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39. The Impact of Posterior Intervertebral Osteophytes on Patient-Reported Outcome Measures After L5-S1 Anterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion and Transforaminal Lumbar Interbody Fusion

Author

Zhao, Eric, primary, Hirase, Takashi, additional, Kim, Andrew G., additional, Du, Jerry Y., additional, Amen, Troy B., additional, Araghi, Kasra, additional, Subramanian, Tejas, additional, Kamil, Robert, additional, Shahi, Pratyush, additional, Fourman, Mitchell S., additional, Asada, Tomoyuki, additional, Simon, Chad Z., additional, Singh, Nishtha, additional, Korsun, Maximilian, additional, Tuma, Olivia C., additional, Zhang, Joshua, additional, Lu, Amy Z., additional, Mai, Eric, additional, Kim, Ashley Yeo Eun, additional, Allen, Myles R.J., additional, Kwas, Cole, additional, Dowdell, James E., additional, Sheha, Evan D., additional, Qureshi, Sheeraz A., additional, and Iyer, Sravisht, additional

Published
2024
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41. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2017 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidis, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Hoerling, Marty, Stott, Peter A., Owen, Rebecca, Vano, Julie A., Dettinger, Michael D., Cifelli, Rob, Curtis, David, Dufour, Alexis, Miller, Kathleen, Olsen, J. Rolf, Wilson, Anna M., Nerem, R. S., Fasullo, J., Hoell, Andrew, Perlwitz, Judith, Dewes, Candida, Wolter, Klaus, Rangwala, Imtiaz, Quan, Xiao-Wei, Eischeid, Jon, Wang, Hailan, Schubert, Siegfried D., Koster, Randal D., Chang, Yehui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Betts, Richard A., Stott, Peter A., de Abreu, Rafael C., Cunningham, Christopher, Rudorff, Conrado M., Rudorff, Natalia, Abatan, Abayomi A., Dong, Buwen, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sparrow, Sarah N., Navarro, Juan C. Acosta, Ortega, Pablo, García-Serrano, Javier, Guemas, Virginie, Tourigny, Etienne, Cruz-García, Rubén, Massonnet, François, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Kew, Sarah F., Philip, Sjoukje Y., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Otto, Friederike E. L., Vautard, Robert, van der Schrier, Gerard, Funk, Chris, Hoell, Andrew, Nicholson, Sharon, Korecha, Diriba, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid, Teshome, Fetene, Hailermariam, Kinfe, Segele, Zewdu, Harrison, Laura, Tadege, Abebe, Atheru, Zachary, Pomposi, Catherine, Pedreros, Diego, Rimi, Ruksana H., Haustein, Karsten, Barbour, Emily J., Allen, Myles R., Takahashi, Chiharu, Shiogama, Hideo, Imada, Yukiko, Kosaka, Yu, Mori, Masato, Arai, Miki, Kamae, Youichi, Watanabe, Masahiro, Min, Seung-Ki, Kim, Yeon-Hee, Park, In-Hong, Lee, Donghyun, Sparrow, Sarah, Wallom, David, Stone, Dáithí, Sun, Ying, Dong, Siyan, Zhang, Xuebin, Stott, Peter, Hu, Ting, Wang, Shanshan, Yuan, Xing, Wu, Renguang, Chen, Yang, Chen, Wei, Su, Qin, Luo, Feifei, Sparrow, Sarah, Tian, Fangxing, Dong, Buwen, Tett, Simon F. B., Lott, Fraser C., Wallom, David, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Tan, Jianguo, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., King, A. D., Cougnon, E. A., Grose, M. R., Oliver, E. C. J., Holbrook, N. J., Lewis, S. C., Pourasghar, F., Hope, Pandora, Black, Mitchell T., Lim, Eun-Pa, Dowdy, Andrew, Wang, Guomin, Pepler, Acacia S., and Fawcett, Robert J. B.

Published
2019

42. An analysis of ways to decarbonize conference travel after COVID-19

Author

Klöwer, Milan, Hopkins, Debbie, Allen, Myles, and Higham, James

Subjects
Epidemics -- Social aspects -- Environmental aspects -- United States, Travel -- Health aspects -- Environmental aspects -- United States, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

Biennials, regional hubs and virtual attendance can slash emissions, new calculations show. Biennials, regional hubs and virtual attendance can slash emissions, new calculations show., Author(s): Milan Klöwer, Debbie Hopkins, Myles Allen, James Higham Author Affiliations: An analysis of ways to decarbonize conference travel after COVID-19 Some 28,000 people travelled to the American Geophysical Union's [...]

Published
2020
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43. chapter 8: ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ON THE 2018 SUMMER WARM SPELL IN EUROPE: THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SPATIO-TEMPORAL SCALES: We demonstrate that, in attribution studies, events defined over longer time scales generally produce higher probability ratios due to lower interannual variability, reconciling seemingly inconsistent attribution results of Europe's 2018 summer heatwaves in reported studies

Author

Leach, Nicholas J., Li, Sihan, Sparrow, Sarah, van Oldenborgh, GeertJan, Lott, Fraser C., Weisheimer, Antje, and Allen, Myles R.

Subjects
Summer -- Environmental aspects, Hot weather -- Environmental aspects, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

The summer of 2018 was extremely warm in parts of Europe, particularly Scandinavia, the Iberian Peninsula, and central Europe, with a range of all-time temperature records set across the continent [...]

Published
2020
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45. Objective Climate Model Predictions Using Jeffreys' Prior: the General Multivariate Normal Case

Author

Jewson, Stephen, Rowlands, Dan, and Allen, Myles

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then be simplified by making parametric assumptions about the distribution of the output from the climate model. The most obvious assumption to make is that the climate model output is normally distributed, in which case evaluating the prior becomes a question of evaluating gradients in the parameters of the normal distribution. In previous work we have considered the special cases of diagonal (but not constant) covariance matrix, and constant (but not diagonal) covariance matrix. We now derive expressions for the general multivariate normal distribution, with non-constant non-diagonal covariance matrix. The algebraic manipulation required is more complex than for the special cases, and involves some slightly esoteric matrix operations including taking the expectation of a vector quadratic form and differentiating the determinants, traces and inverses of matrices.

Published
2010

46. Objective Probabilistic Forecasts of Future Climate Based on Jeffreys' Prior: the Case of Correlated Observables

Author

Jewson, Stephen, Rowlands, Dan, and Allen, Myles

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

To include parameter uncertainty into probabilistic climate forecasts one must first specify a prior. We advocate the use of objective priors, and, in particular, the Jeffreys' Prior. In previous work we have derived expressions for the Jeffreys' Prior for the case in which the observations are independent and normally distributed. These expressions make the calculation of the prior much simpler than evaluation directly from the definition. In this paper, we now relax the independence assumption and derive expressions for the Jeffreys' Prior for the case in which the observations are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution with constant covariances. Again, these expressions simplify the calculation of the prior: in this case they reduce it to the calculation of the differences between the ensemble means of climate model ensembles based on different parameter settings. These calculations are simple enough to be applied to even the most complex climate models.

Published
2010

47. A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior

Author

Jewson, Stephen, Rowlands, Dan, and Allen, Myles

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered computationally unfeasible. We propose an approximation that we believe makes it feasible, and derive closed-form expressions for various simple cases.

Published
2009

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