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We use a sample of 40 developing and emerging countries over the period 1995–2015 to assess the effectiveness of international reserve holding as a crisis mitigator. We test the relevance of the reserve accumulation decreasing returns assumption by estimating the most recent version of the PSTR model. We find that increasing stocks of international reserves allows domestic authorities to mitigate the negative impacts of financial and banking vulnerabilities on GDP growth rates leading to reject the decreasing returns assumption. This evidence is robust to sensitivity checks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims to empirically identify the determinants of the debt crisis that occurred within the framework of 15 core EU member countries (EU-15). Contrary to previous empirical studies that tend to use event-based crisis indicators, our study develops a continuous fiscal stress index to identify the debt crises in the EU-15 and employs three different estimation techniques, namely self-organizing map, multivariate logit and panel Markov regime switching models. Our estimation results show first that the study correctly identifies the time and the length of the debt crisis in each EU-15-member country. Empirical results then indicate, via three different models, that the debt crisis in the EU-15 is the consequence of deterioration of both financial and macroeconomic variables such as nonperforming loans over total loans, GDP growth, unemployment rates, primary balance over GDP, and cyclically adjusted balance over GDP. Furthermore, variables measuring governance quality, such as voice and accountability, regulatory quality, and government effectiveness, also play a significant role in the emergence and the duration of the debt crisis in the EU-15. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we test the existence of financial development threshold effects, firstly, between financial development and long-term growth, and, secondly, between financial development and long-term GDP. We also ask whether such effects may explain the link financial development - convergence/ divergence to the advanced countries’ growth. Our work builds on that of Aghion, Howitt, and Mayer-Foulkes (2004). It differs from previous work about assumptions and methodology. Estimates are performed with GMM dynamic panel data techniques for 112 emerging and developing countries from 1975 to 2007. The results show a positive but vanishing effect of financial development on steady-state GDP, from a critical (an average) level of financial development. They do not validate, however, the assumption that the marginal impact of financial development on the steady-state growth rate is more favorable than the degree of financial development is low. We support only partially the role that the financial development could play in the acceleration of the convergence of emerging and developing economies towards the world frontier growth.

The paper explores (former) transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

This paper assesses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American integration process. Over the period 1991-2007, we analyze a sample of five Latin-American countries focusing on the feasibility of a monetary union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study the issue of business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks. First, we assess the international disturbances influence on the domestic business cycles. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries' responses to shocks. .

During the 90s, recurrent exchange rate crises in emerging markets have shown the extreme fragility of soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. As a result, numerous academic economists but also International institutions have promoted a new consensus: domestic authorities have to choose their exchange rate regime between only two solutions called corner solutions or extreme regimes: hard pegs or independent floating. This paper questions de relevance of this consensus. We stress the main advantages and costs of each corner solution. We conclude by stressing that intermediate regimes associated to an inflation targeting framework seem a better solution for emerging countries than corner solutions.

During the 90s emerging markets have been hit by recurrent exchange rate crises. Almost all these countries shared a common characteristic: they adopted in previous years soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. International institutions and academic economists interpreted this intrinsic fragility of soft pegs as a consequence of the increasing international capital mobility. From this perspective, the exchange-rate regime is seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark trade-off among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Soft pegs seem incompatible with international financial integration. As a result, a new consensus appeared: the choice of domestic authorities is limited to corner solutions: hard pegs on the one side; independent floating on the other side. This paper proposes a contribution to the analysis of exchange rate regimes choice by emerging markets. The new consensus is questioned by considering that emerging countries are confronted not in the choice between extreme solutions, but rather with the choice of the degree of fixity- or the degree of flexibility- of the exchange rate.