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2. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2024
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5. Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2 degrees warmer and food-secure world – supplementary spatial data

Author

Kok, M., Meijer, J., Zeist, W.-J., Hilbers, J.P., Immovilli, M., Janse, J.H., Stehfest, E., Bakkenes, M., Tabeau, A., Schipper, A.M., Alkemade, R., Kok, M., Meijer, J., Zeist, W.-J., Hilbers, J.P., Immovilli, M., Janse, J.H., Stehfest, E., Bakkenes, M., Tabeau, A., Schipper, A.M., and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 294913.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access)

Published
2023

7. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.

Abstract

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Published
2023
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9. Science on ecosystems and people to support the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Author

Schröter, M., Berbés-Blázquez, M., Albert, C., Hill, R., Krause, T., Loos J., Mannetti, L., Martín-López, B., Neelakantan, A., Parrotta, J., Quintas-Soriano, C., Abson, D., Alkemade, R., Amelung, B., Baptiste, B., Barrios, E., Djoudi, H., Drakou, E., Durance, I., García Llorente, M., Geneletti, D., Harmáčková, Z., Jacobs, S., Kaiser, N., Kingsley, J., Klain, S., Martínez-Harms, M., Murali, R., O’Farrell, P., Pandit, R., Pereira, L., Rana, S., Riechers, M., Rusch, G., Sala, J., Schulp, C., Sitas, N., Subramanian, S., Villasante, S., and Oudenhoven, A.P.E. van

Subjects
Ecosystems Research, Biology
Published
2023

14. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.

Abstract

The expert group on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services initiated the development of the Nature Futures Framework for developing scenarios of positive futures for nature, to help inform assessments of policy options. This new scenarios and modelling Framework seeks to open up diversity and plurality of perspectives by differentiating three main value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature (intrinsic values of nature), Nature for Society (instrumental values) and Nature as Culture (relational values). This paper describes how the Nature Futures Framework can be applied in modelling to support policy processes by identifying key interventions for change in realizing a diversity of desirable futures. First, the paper introduces and elaborates on key building blocks of the framework for developing qualitative scenarios and translating them into quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the Nature Futures frontier representing diverse preferences, ii) incorporating mutual and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems in Nature Futures scenarios, and iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems with complementary knowledge and data. This paper then presents three possible application approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios to support the i) review, ii) implementation and iii) design phases of policy processes. The main objective of this paper is to facilitate the integration of the relational values of nature in models, through improved indicators and other forms of evidence, and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life to identify science- and knowledge-based interventions and to enhance ecological understanding for achieving sustainable futures. The paper aims at stimulating the development of new scenarios and models based on this new framework by a wide c

Published
2021

16. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author

Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, F.A.J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J.C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G.M., Ohashi, H., Popp, Alexander, Purvis, A., Schipper, A.M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Meijl, H. van, Zeist, W.J. van, Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A.J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.B.N., Vuuren, D.P. van, Ware, C., Watson, J.E.M., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 228862.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)

Published
2020

17. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author

Rosa, I.M.D., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C.A., Hurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, Paul, Martins, I.S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Purvis, A., Alkemade, R., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Ferrier, S., Guerra, C.A., Hurtt, G., Kim, H., Leadley, Paul, Martins, I.S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., Vuuren, Detlef P. van, and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 217156.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)

Published
2020

18. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2020

19. Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

Author

Veerkamp, C.J., Dunford, R.W., Harrison, P.A., Mandryk, M., Priess, Jörg, Schipper, A.M., Stehfest, E., Alkemade, R., Veerkamp, C.J., Dunford, R.W., Harrison, P.A., Mandryk, M., Priess, Jörg, Schipper, A.M., Stehfest, E., and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). Our results showed that (i) climate and land use change will continue to pose significant threats to biodiversity and some ecosystem services, even in the most optimistic scenario; (ii) none of the four scenarios achieved overall preservation of BES in Europe; and (iii) targeted policies (e.g. on climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management) and behavioural change (e.g. reducing meat consumption, water-saving behaviour) reduced the magnitude of BES loss. These findings stress the necessity of more ambitious policies and actions if BES in Europe are to be safeguarded. We further found that the multi-modelling approach was critical to account for complementary BES dimensions and highlighted different sources of uncertainties (e.g. related to land use allocation, driving forces behind BES changes, trade assumptions), which facilitated nuanced and contextualised insights with respect to possible BES futures.

Published
2020

20. Reversing terrestrial biodiversity declines due to habitat loss: a multi-model assessment

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Published
2019

21. Bending the curve on terrestrial biodiversity loss: a multi model assessment

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Dürauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Vuuren, D., van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Published
2018

23. New EU-level scenarios on the future of ecosystem services

Author

Schröter, M., Bonn, A., Klotz, S., Seppelt, R., Baessler, C., Priess, Jörg, Hauck, J., Haines-Young, R., Alkemade, R., Mandryk, M., Veerkamp, C.J., Bela, G., Berry, P., Dunford, R., Harrison, P., Keune, H., Kok, M., Kopperoinen, L., Lazarova, T., Maes, J., Pataki, G., Preda, E., Schleyer, C., Vadineanu, A., Zulian, G., Schröter, M., Bonn, A., Klotz, S., Seppelt, R., Baessler, C., Priess, Jörg, Hauck, J., Haines-Young, R., Alkemade, R., Mandryk, M., Veerkamp, C.J., Bela, G., Berry, P., Dunford, R., Harrison, P., Keune, H., Kok, M., Kopperoinen, L., Lazarova, T., Maes, J., Pataki, G., Preda, E., Schleyer, C., Vadineanu, A., and Zulian, G.

Abstract

New European Union level scenarios have been developed in the FP7 project OpenNESS to fill a thematic gap in existing broad-scale environmental scenarios to assess the uncertainties and risks of different drivers of change for natural capital and ecosystem service provision. The scenarios are aiming at applicability for science and policy-making at different scales, including the European level and regional and local scales. The scenarios are going beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios, making broader assumptions in covering different types of ecosystem services, and different pathways of ecosystem services provision, including risks of ecosystem service losses. The main research question is addressing uncertainties and risks related to land-use change, exemplified via impacts on a provisioning and a regulating service. The approach is based on participatory scenario development and integrated modelling with the CLIMSAVE modelling framework. Four scenarios were developed (WealthBeing, UnitedWeStand, EcoCentre, RuralRevival). Simulations of the combinations of driving forces caused land-use changes up to +65% for forest, or −37% for grassland, both in UnitedWeStand. The most extreme changes highlighted here for scenario UnitedWeStand can mainly be attributed to the highest increase in irrigation efficiency (+58%) and crop yields (+50%), an almost constant human population in Europe (+1%), moderate increases in meat demands (+10%) and increasing food imports (+10%). In terms of ecosystem services provision, no clear winners and losers could be identified in the four scenarios, but rather different mixes of trade-offs and synergies. Thus, drivers within Europe as well as trade with land-intensive commodities and the policies steering them contribute to lower or increased pressures and risks of ecosystem services loss, e.g., on agricultural land in Europe and the countries of trading partners.

Published
2019

24. Assessing biodiversity responses to changes in climate and land use

Author

Leemans, R., Alkemade, R., Kok, K., Nuñez Ramos, Sarahi, Leemans, R., Alkemade, R., Kok, K., and Nuñez Ramos, Sarahi

Abstract

Biodiversity loss due to changes in climate and land use has been assessed recently. The earliest biodiversity assessments already showed that species are declining faster than at any time in the past and that ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating. Moreover, these assessments indicated that the projected changes in climate and land use likely drive further biodiversity losses in the 21st century, both directly and in synergy with each other. This accumulated evidence positions climate change and land-use change among the major human-induced direct drivers of biodiversity loss. Climate change affects biodiversity as climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, largely determine the geographical distributions of species. Hence, in areas where climate is less suitable, species shift their geographical ranges and go extinct locally. Land-use change poses immediate threats to biodiversity as the conversion of natural habitats (e.g. forests, wetlands and grasslands) into agricultural land results in populations decline and extinctions become more likely. These adverse effects consequently change ecosystems functioning and potentially affect the supply of ecosystems services and thus human well-being. Although research on climate and land-use change impacts on biodiversity and the consequent implications was repeatedly conducted, the range of estimates for these impacts remains disturbingly large. Moreover, such research relied on climate-change scenarios that depict relatively small increases in global mean temperatures (i.e. <2°C). Nowadays, the plausibility of climate-change scenarios which overshoot the 2°C policy target from The Paris Agreement, is rapidly increasing. Advances are thus needed to better understand how biodiversity will respond to such larger changes, including quantifications of the expected biodiversity decline at different climate and land-use change levels, and the effect derived from interaction mechanisms between these drivers. Further

Published
2019

25. Supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., Young, L., Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerk, F.A., Di Marco, M., Dürauer, M., Doelman, J.C., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N.D., Cornell, S.E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlik, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., van Duuren, D., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Abstract

The archive provides supporting material for the article entitled “Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy”, published in the Nature journal (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y). It contains: i) the final version of the methodological report (updating the initial version [DOI:10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241] for this article), ii) geospatial land-use projections generated by land-use models for the various scenarios described in the article, iii) aggregated land-use model projections for other variables used in the article, iv) the code, input data and output data of the various biodiversity models applied to the land use projections, v) the code and side data to produce numbers and figures presented in the article.”

Published
2019

26. Report on the workshop ‘Global Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’

Author

Okayasu, S., Schoolenberg, M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Pereira, H., Lundquist, C., Cheung, W., Rondinini, C., Halouani, G., Kim, H.J., Miller, B., Hirsch, T., Abbasov, R., Arneth, A., Diaw, M.C., Eddy, T., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hickler, T., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Johnson, J., Kok, M., Leadly, P., Leclere, D., Navarro, L., Ohashi, H., Peterson, G., Schipper, G., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Okayasu, S., Schoolenberg, M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Pereira, H., Lundquist, C., Cheung, W., Rondinini, C., Halouani, G., Kim, H.J., Miller, B., Hirsch, T., Abbasov, R., Arneth, A., Diaw, M.C., Eddy, T., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hickler, T., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Johnson, J., Kok, M., Leadly, P., Leclere, D., Navarro, L., Ohashi, H., Peterson, G., Schipper, G., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Visconti, P., and van Vuuren, D.

Published
2019

27. Grotere verscheidenheid als reactie op de afnemende biodiversiteit : Inauguratie Prof. dr. Rob Alkemade 12 september 2019

Author

Alkemade, R. and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Prof. dr. R. (Rob) Alkemade, werkzaam bij het Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, is per 1 maart 2019 benoemd tot buitengewoon hoogleraar aan de WUR voor zijn leerstoel ‘Global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling’. In de nieuwe opdracht richt hij zich op thema’s rond (het modelleren van) ecosysteemdiensten en biodiversiteit. De afgelopen jaren heeft hij zich onder andere beziggehouden met het ontwikkelen van het mondiale biodiversiteitmodel GLOBIO. Dit betoog is gebaseerd op de inaugurele rede van Alkemade en omvat ook de bodembiodiversiteit waar hij eerder zijn sporen in heeft verdiend.

Published
2019

28. Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century

Author

Leclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Barrett, M., Bunting, G., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Chaudhary, A., Cornell, S., De Palma, A., Declerck, F., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J., Durauer, M., Ferrier, S., Freeman, R., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Herrero, M., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Kram, T., Krisztin, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Mace, G., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., Van Meijl, H., Van Vuuren, D., Van Zeist, W., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Watson, J., Wu, W., and Young, L.

Subjects
land-use change, scenarios, biodiversity
Published
2018

29. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Published
2018

30. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Published
2018

31. Interregional flows of ecosystem services: Concepts, typology and four cases

Author

Schröter, Matthias, Koellner, T., Alkemade, R., Arnhold, S., Bagstad, K.J., Erb, K.-H., Frank, Karin, Kastner, T., Kissinger, M., Liu, J., López-Hoffman, L., Maes, J., Marques, A., Martín-López, B., Meyer, C., Schulp, C.J.E., Thober, Jule, Wolff, S., Bonn, Aletta, Schröter, Matthias, Koellner, T., Alkemade, R., Arnhold, S., Bagstad, K.J., Erb, K.-H., Frank, Karin, Kastner, T., Kissinger, M., Liu, J., López-Hoffman, L., Maes, J., Marques, A., Martín-López, B., Meyer, C., Schulp, C.J.E., Thober, Jule, Wolff, S., and Bonn, Aletta

Abstract

Conserving and managing global natural capital requires an understanding of the complexity of flows of ecosystem services across geographic boundaries. Failing to understand and to incorporate these flows into national and international ecosystem assessments leads to incomplete and potentially skewed conclusions, impairing society’s ability to identify sustainable management and policy choices. In this paper, we synthesise existing knowledge and develop a conceptual framework for analysing interregional ecosystem service flows. We synthesise the types of such flows, the characteristics of sending and receiving socio-ecological systems, and the impacts of ecosystem service flows on interregional sustainability. Using four cases (trade of certified coffee, migration of northern pintails, flood protection in the Danube watershed, and information on giant pandas), we test the conceptual framework and show how an enhanced understanding of interregional telecouplings in socio-ecological systems can inform ecosystem service-based decision making and governance with respect to sustainability goals.

Published
2018

35. The impact of hunting on tropical mammal and bird populations

Author

Benitez Lopez, A., Alkemade, R., Ingram, D.J., Verweij, P.A., Eikelboom, J.A.J., Huijbregts, M.A.J., Benitez Lopez, A., Alkemade, R., Ingram, D.J., Verweij, P.A., Eikelboom, J.A.J., and Huijbregts, M.A.J.

Abstract

Item does not contain fulltext

Published
2017

36. The impact of hunting on tropical mammal and bird populations

Author

Energy System Analysis, Energy and Resources, Benítez-López, A., Alkemade, R., Schipper, A. M., Ingram, D. J., Verweij, P. A., Eikelboom, J. A. J., Huijbregts, M. A. J., Energy System Analysis, Energy and Resources, Benítez-López, A., Alkemade, R., Schipper, A. M., Ingram, D. J., Verweij, P. A., Eikelboom, J. A. J., and Huijbregts, M. A. J.

Published
2017

37. Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century. Report from an IPBES visioning workshop held on 4-8 September 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand

Author

Lundquist, C.J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Carvalho Ribeiro, S., Davies, K., Greenaway, A., Hauck, Jennifer, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H., King, N., Lazarova, T., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Ravera, F., van den Brink, T., Argumedo, A., Arida, C., Armenteras, D., Ausseil, A.G., Baptiste, B., Belanger, J., Bingham, K., Bowden-Kerby, A., Cao, M., Carino, J., Van Damme, P.A., Devivo, R., Dickson, F., Dushimumuremyi, J.P., Ferrier, S., Flores-Díaz, A., Foley, M., Garcia Marquez, J., Giraldo-Perez, P., Greenhaigh, S., Hamilton, D.J., Hardison, P., Hicks, G., Hughey, K., Kahui-McConnell, R., Karuri-Sebina, G., De Kock, M., Leadley, P., Lemaitre, F., Maltseva, E., de Mattos Scaramuzza, C.A., Metwally, M., Nelson, W., Ngo, H., Neumann, C., Norrie, C., Perry, J., Quintana, R., Rodriguez Osuna, V.E., Roehrl, C., Seager, J., Sharpe, H., Shortland, T., Shulbaeva, P., Sumaila, U.R., Takahashi, Y., Titeux, N., Tiwari, S., Trisos, C., Ursache, A., Wheatley, A., Wilson, D., Wood, S., van Wyk, E., Yue, T.X., Zulfikar, D., Lundquist, C.J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Carvalho Ribeiro, S., Davies, K., Greenaway, A., Hauck, Jennifer, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H., King, N., Lazarova, T., Pereira, L., Peterson, G., Ravera, F., van den Brink, T., Argumedo, A., Arida, C., Armenteras, D., Ausseil, A.G., Baptiste, B., Belanger, J., Bingham, K., Bowden-Kerby, A., Cao, M., Carino, J., Van Damme, P.A., Devivo, R., Dickson, F., Dushimumuremyi, J.P., Ferrier, S., Flores-Díaz, A., Foley, M., Garcia Marquez, J., Giraldo-Perez, P., Greenhaigh, S., Hamilton, D.J., Hardison, P., Hicks, G., Hughey, K., Kahui-McConnell, R., Karuri-Sebina, G., De Kock, M., Leadley, P., Lemaitre, F., Maltseva, E., de Mattos Scaramuzza, C.A., Metwally, M., Nelson, W., Ngo, H., Neumann, C., Norrie, C., Perry, J., Quintana, R., Rodriguez Osuna, V.E., Roehrl, C., Seager, J., Sharpe, H., Shortland, T., Shulbaeva, P., Sumaila, U.R., Takahashi, Y., Titeux, N., Tiwari, S., Trisos, C., Ursache, A., Wheatley, A., Wilson, D., Wood, S., van Wyk, E., Yue, T.X., and Zulfikar, D.

Published
2017

38. Opportunity Cost Estimation of Ecosystem Services

Author

Ruijs, A., Kortelainen, M., Wossink, A., Schulp, C.J.E., Alkemade, R., Ruijs, A., Kortelainen, M., Wossink, A., Schulp, C.J.E., and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Land-use changes rank among the most significant drivers of change in ecosystem services worldwide. The enhancement of important services such as biodiversity and carbon sequestration requires modifications in land-use that can lead to the decline in other ecosystems services. Targeting the most suitable areas for particular land-uses based on comparative advantages requires opportunity cost information across large regions. This is a demanding task because the input–output relations are ill-defined and determined by spatially heterogeneous operational and environmental conditions. To address this methodological challenge, this paper presents a two-stage semiparametric technique that enables multi-dimensional production possibility frontiers to be estimated from data provided by biophysical models. Specific advantages of the proposed frontier approach are its flexibility with regard to assumptions on the convexity of the production possibility set and its freedom from any separability assumptions for the input–output space and the space of the heterogeneous background variables. The method is illustrated for a case study of 18 Central and Eastern European countries. Results show that opportunity costs of changes in ecosystem services provision differ substantially between regions. Those areas having already relatively high levels of carbon sequestration have a comparative advantage in sequestering carbon. Opportunity costs of biodiversity are generally positively related with the level of biodiversity up to a turning point after which they are negatively related. To illustrate the policy consequences of the observed economies and diseconomies of scope we compare two management regimes to illustrate the potential gains from smart land management.

Published
2017
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39. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Author

Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akcakaya, R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A.M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K.A., Harrison, P.A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, R.J.J., Hernández, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H.J., King, N., Kok, M.T.J., Kolomytsev, G.O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C.J., García Márquez, J., Meyer, C., Navarro, L.M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, H.T., Ninan, K.N., Palomo, M.G., Pereira, L.M., Peterson, G.D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A.M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, N., van Vuuren, D., Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akcakaya, R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A.M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K.A., Harrison, P.A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, R.J.J., Hernández, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H.J., King, N., Kok, M.T.J., Kolomytsev, G.O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C.J., García Márquez, J., Meyer, C., Navarro, L.M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, H.T., Ninan, K.N., Palomo, M.G., Pereira, L.M., Peterson, G.D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A.M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, N., and van Vuuren, D.

Abstract

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Published
2017

40. New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications

Author

Priess, Jörg, Hauck, Jennifer, Haines-Young, R., Alkemade, R., Mandryk, M., Veerkamp, C., Gyorgyi, B., Dunford, R., Berry, P., Harrison, P., Dick, J., Keune, H., Kok, K., Kopperoinen, L., Lazarova, T., Maes, J., Pataki, G., Preda, E., Schleyer, Christian, Görg, Christoph, Vadineanu, A., Zulian, G., Priess, Jörg, Hauck, Jennifer, Haines-Young, R., Alkemade, R., Mandryk, M., Veerkamp, C., Gyorgyi, B., Dunford, R., Berry, P., Harrison, P., Dick, J., Keune, H., Kok, K., Kopperoinen, L., Lazarova, T., Maes, J., Pataki, G., Preda, E., Schleyer, Christian, Görg, Christoph, Vadineanu, A., and Zulian, G.

Abstract

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders.In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach.

Published
2017

42. Building scenarios and models of drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem change.

Author

Ferrier, S., Ninan, K.N., Leadley, P., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Brotons, L., Cheung, W.W.L., Christensen, V., Harhash, K.A., Kabubo-Mariara, J., Lundquist, C., Obersteiner, M., Pereira, H., Peterson, G., Pichs-Madruga, R., Ravindranath, N., Rondinini, C., Wintle, B.A., Cantele, M., Ahmed, M.T., Cui, X., Cury, P., Fall, S., Kellner, K., Verburg, P., Ferrier, S., Ninan, K.N., Leadley, P., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Brotons, L., Cheung, W.W.L., Christensen, V., Harhash, K.A., Kabubo-Mariara, J., Lundquist, C., Obersteiner, M., Pereira, H., Peterson, G., Pichs-Madruga, R., Ravindranath, N., Rondinini, C., Wintle, B.A., Cantele, M., Ahmed, M.T., Cui, X., Cury, P., Fall, S., Kellner, K., and Verburg, P.

Published
2016

43. Simulating Land Use Policies Targeted to Protect Biodiversity with the CLUE-Scanner Model

Author

Verburg, P.H., Lesschen, J.P., Koomen, E., Perez-Soba, M., Trisurat, Y., Shrestha, R.P., Alkemade, R., Spatial analysis & Decision Support, Spatial Economics, Trisurat, Y., Shrestha, R.P., and Alkemade, R.

Subjects
CB - Bodemkwaliteit en Nutriënten, media_common.quotation_subject, Biodiversity, Context (language use), landgebruik, Leerstoelgroep Landdynamiek, models, habitats, Measurement of biodiversity, media_common.cataloged_instance, Land Dynamics, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Quality (business), Wageningen Environmental Research, CGI - Earth Observation, European union, SS - Soil Quality and Nutrients, Environmental planning, modellen, media_common, SDG 15 - Life on Land, biodiversity, climatic change, Land use, CGI - Aardobservatie, business.industry, Environmental resource management, biodiversiteit, land use, klimaatverandering, Incentive, Geography, business
Abstract

This chapter presents an integrated modelling approach for assessing land use changes and its effects on biodiversity. A modelling framework consisting of a macro-economic model, a land use change model, and biodiversity indicator models is described and illustrated with a scenario study for the European Union. A reference scenario is compared to a scenario in which a number of possible policies for conservation and protection of biodiversity are assumed to have been implemented. The results are evaluated by an indicator of the habitat quality for biodiversity and an indicator of landscape connectivity. The results illustrate that land use change has spatially diverse impacts on biodiversity. The effectiveness of the assumed policies is region and context dependent. The modelling framework can thus provide ex-ante assessments of policies and identify critical regions for biodiversity conservation and assist in targeting policies and incentives to protect biodiversity in vulnerable areas. © 2011, IGI Global.

Published
2011

44. Approaches to defining a planetary boundary for biodiversity

Author

Mace, G.M., Reyers, B., Alkemade, R., Biggs, R., Stuart Chapin, F., Cornell, S.E., and Diaz, S.

Subjects
biosphere, WIMEK, plant functional traits, extinction, conservation, Environmental Systems Analysis, Milieusysteemanalyse, tipping points, tree mortality, phylogenetic diversity, global biodiversity, ecosystem services, time
Abstract

The idea that there is an identifiable set of boundaries, beyond which anthropogenic change will put the Earth system outside a safe operating space for humanity, is attracting interest in the scientific community and gaining support in the environmental policy world. Rockstrom et al. (2009) identify nine such boundaries and highlight biodiversity loss as being the single boundary where current rates of extinction put the Earth system furthest outside the safe operating space. Here we review the evidence to support a boundary based on extinction rates and identify weaknesses with this metric and its bearing on humanity's needs. While changes to biodiversity are of undisputed importance, we show that both extinction rate and species richness are weak metrics for this purpose, and they do not scale well from local to regional or global levels. We develop alternative approaches to determine biodiversity loss boundaries and extend our analysis to consider large-scale responses in the Earth system that could affect its suitability for complex human societies which in turn are mediated by the biosphere. We suggest three facets of biodiversity on which a boundary could be based: the genetic library of life; functional type diversity; and biome condition and extent. For each of these we explore the science needed to indicate how it might be measured and how changes would affect human societies. In addition to these three facets, we show how biodiversity's role in supporting a safe operating space for humanity may lie primarily in its interactions with other boundaries, suggesting an immediate area of focus for scientists and policymakers.

Published
2014

45. How sectors can contribute to sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity

Author

Kok, M., Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Boelee, E., Christensen, V., van Eerdt, M., van der Esch, S., Janse, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E., Kram, T., Lazarova, T., Linderhof, V.G.M., Lucas, P., Mandryk, M., Meijer, J., van Oorschot, M., Teh, L., van Hoof, L.J.W., Westhoek, H., and Zagt, R.

Subjects
Groene Economie en Ruimte, Leerstoelgroep Irrigatie en waterbouwkunde, Public Administration and Policy, Life Science, Bos- en Natuurbeleid, Bestuurskunde, Visserij, Irrigation and Water Engineering, Forest and Nature Conservation Policy, Green Economy and Landuse
Published
2014

46. Developing a methodology for a species-based indicator for biodiversity on agricultural land in the EU

Author

Overmars, K.P., Schulp, C.J.E., Alkemade, R., Verburg, P.H., Temme, A.J.A.M., Omtzigt, N., Schaminee, J.H.J., Spatial analysis & Decision Support, and Amsterdam Global Change Institute

Subjects
SDG 15 - Life on Land
Abstract

In Europe agricultural areas are of great importance to biodiversity conservation. One of the aims of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after 2013 is to avoid additional loss of agriculture-related biodiversity. Farmland biodiversity is a public good that provides ecosystem services necessary for the sustainability of agriculture itself as well as for a sustainable environment as a whole. To evaluate policies such as the CAP and to monitor the development of biodiversity in agricultural areas, specifically designed indicators are needed. Current EU-level indicators of agricultural biodiversity are often limited to a specific species group, for example the group of farmland birds, and are not designed for evaluation of future policies. This study presents a methodology for a new indicator that is targeted specifically at biodiversity in agricultural areas, considering a large variety of species and focussing on policy. The methodology combines maps of the potential occurrence of 132 relevant species (plants and vertebrates) on a 50 km grid, with detailed information (1 km grid) on the influence of environmental pressures on these species. A first indicator map on a 1 km grid for the EU is provided, based on available data. This map shows great variety in the state of the biodiversity of agricultural areas in the EU. Generally speaking, biodiversity in agricultural areas in the south and east of the EU is in a better state than in the west and north. However, spatial variability is high between and even within regions. The presented indicator may be used to explore the dynamics of biodiversity following policy interventions, using the biodiversity map or by modelling the effect of policies on the environmental pressures that form the basis of the indicator. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2014

49. MOVE, nationaal model voor de vegetatie, versie 3. De kans op voorkomen van ca. 900 plantensoorten als functie van 7 omgevingsvariabelen

Author

Heer M de, Alkemade R, Bakkenes M, Esbroek M van, Hinsberg A van, Zwart D de, LBG, and ECO

Subjects
natuurplanner, model, milieu, verzuring, beheer, ecotoxicologie, logistische regressie, vermesting, vegetatie, saliniteit, verdroging, move
Abstract

As a part of the decision support system 'De Natuurplanner' the vegetation model MOVE is primarily applied to national environmental outlooks. MOVE uses multiple logistic regression to predict the incidence of plant species as a function of environmental conditions. Over 900 plant species are included in MOVE. The response functions of MOVE 2 used eutrofication, acidification and moisture as explanatory variables. This study extends the model with variables in the areas of vegetation structure, heavy metals, salinity and regional differences. The empirical basis for the response curves was also enlarged to over 100,000 records and the models statistically tested.

Published
2012

50. Modeling species distribution

Author

Trisurat, Yongyut, Toxopeus, A.G., Trisurat, Y., Shrestha, R.P., Alkemade, R., Department of Natural Resources, UT-I-ITC-FORAGES, and Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation

Published
2011

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