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Abstract Background Physical inactivity is a global public health problem. A practical solution would be to build physical activity into the daily routine by using active modes of transport. Choice of transport mode can influence cancer risk through their effects on levels of physical activity, sedentary time, and environmental pollution. This review synthesizes existing evidence on the associations of specific transport modes with risks of site-specific cancers. Methods Relevant literature was searched in PubMed, Embase, and Scopus from 1914 to 17th February 2023. For cancer sites with effect measures available for a specific transport mode from two or more studies, random effects meta-analyses were performed to pool relative risks (RR) comparing the highest vs. lowest activity group as well as per 10 Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET) hour increment in transport-related physical activity per week (∼150 min of walking or 90 min of cycling). Results 27 eligible studies (11 cohort, 15 case-control, and 1 case-cohort) were identified, which reported the associations of transport modes with 10 site-specific cancers. In the meta-analysis, 10 MET hour increment in transport-related physical activity per week was associated with a reduction in risk for endometrial cancer (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83–0.997), colorectal cancer (RR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.91–0.99) and breast cancer (RR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.89–0.996). The highest level of walking only or walking and cycling combined modes, compared to the lowest level, were significantly associated with a 12% and 30% reduced risk of breast and endometrial cancers respectively. Cycling, compared to motorized modes, was associated with a lower risk of overall cancer incidence and mortality. Conclusion Active transport appears to reduce cancer risk, but evidence for cancer sites other than colorectum, breast, and endometrium is currently limited.

Abstract Background High ambient air temperatures in Africa pose significant health and behavioral challenges in populations with limited access to cooling adaptations. The built environment can exacerbate heat exposure, making passive home cooling adaptations a potential method for protecting occupants against indoor heat exposure. Methods We are conducting a 2-year community-based stratified cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) implementing sunlight-reflecting roof coatings, known as “cool roofs,” as a climate change adaptation intervention for passive indoor home cooling. Our primary research objective is to investigate the effects of cool roofs on health, indoor climate, economic, and behavioral outcomes in rural Burkina Faso. This cRCT is nested in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), a population-based dynamic cohort study of all people living in a geographically contiguous area covering 59 villages, 14305 households and 28610 individuals. We recruited 1200 participants, one woman and one man, each in 600 households in 25 villages in the Nouna HDSS. We stratified our sample by (i) village and (ii) two prevalent roof types in this area of Burkina Faso: mud brick and tin. We randomized the same number of people (12) and homes (6) in each stratum 1:1 to receiving vs. not receiving the cool roof. We are collecting outcome data on one primary endpoint - heart rate, (a measure of heat stress) and 22 secondary outcomes encompassing indoor climate parameters, blood pressure, body temperature, heat-related outcomes, blood glucose, sleep, cognition, mental health, health facility utilization, economic and productivity outcomes, mosquito count, life satisfaction, gender-based violence, and food consumption. We followed all participants for 2 years, conducting monthly home visits to collect objective and subjective outcomes. Approximately 12% of participants (n = 152) used smartwatches to continuously measure endpoints including heart rate, sleep and activity. Discussion Our study demonstrates the potential of large-scale cRCTs to evaluate novel climate change adaptation interventions and provide evidence supporting investments in heat resilience in sub-Saharan Africa. By conducting this research, we will contribute to better policies and interventions to help climate-vulnerable populations ward off the detrimental effects of extreme indoor heat on health. Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) DRKS00023207. Registered on April 19, 2021.

ABSTRACTTo be realistic and meaningful, positive ageing conceptualisations should involve a diverse range of perspectives. Yet, problematically, perspectives are often distinguished as ‘researcher versus older adult’. In this scoping review, we suggest that distinguishing perspectives based on the data collection and interpretation approach is more meaningful. Guided by Arksey and O’Malley’s scoping review framework, we explored diverse positive ageing literature (from across conceptual origins and discourses) to clarify how positive ageing for community-dwelling older adults has been conceptualised. To reflect diverse data and interpretation perspectives, we considered both etic (closed/validatory) and emic (open/exploratory) approaches and developed a conceptual model of positive ageing that consolidated diverse literature and approaches. We synthesised 75 articles and determined that etic and emic approaches generally included similar features; however, emic approaches considered more comprehensive and complex features. Our multidimensional and holistic positive ageing model illustrates the range of unique factors which contribute to the health and well-being of older adults. Furthermore, we find that positive ageing literature largely focuses on individualistic behaviours. Future positive ageing research and policy would have more traction, in our view, if it included wider structural environments to stimulate real-world change. We offer our conceptual model as a useful guide.

Summary: Five billion people lack access to surgical care worldwide; climate change is the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. This review studies how climate change could be integrated into national surgical planning in the Western Pacific region. We searched databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Global Health) for articles on climate change and surgical care. Findings were categorised using the modified World Health Organisation Health System Building Blocks Framework. 220 out of 2577 records were included. Infrastructure: Operating theatres are highly resource-intensive. Their carbon footprint could be reduced by maximising equipment longevity, improving energy efficiency, and renewable energy use. Service delivery Tele-medicine, outreaches, and avoiding desflurane could reduce emissions. Robust surgical systems are required to adapt to the increasing burden of surgically treated diseases, such as injuries from natural disasters. Finance: Climate change adaptation funds could be mobilised for surgical system strengthening. Information systems: Sustainability should be a key performance indicator for surgical systems. Workforce: Surgical providers could change clinical, institutional, and societal practices. Governance: Planning in surgical care and climate change should be aligned. Climate change mitigation is essential in the regional surgical care scale-up; surgical system strengthening is also necessary for adaptation to climate change.

Abstract Reducing motorized transport and increasing active transport (i.e. transport by walking, cycling and other active modes) may reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve health. But, active modes of transport are not zero emitters. We aimed to quantify GHG emissions from food production required to fuel extra physical activity for walking and cycling. We estimate the emissions (in kgCO2e) per kilometre travelled for walking and cycling from energy intake required to compensate for increased energy expenditure, and data on food-related GHG emissions. We assume that persons who shift from passive modes of transport (e.g. driving) have increased energy expenditure that may be compensated with increased food consumption. The GHG emissions associated with food intake required to fuel a kilometre of walking range between 0.05 kgCO2e/km in the least economically developed countries to 0.26 kgCO2e/km in the most economically developed countries. Emissions for cycling are approximately half those of walking. Emissions from food required for walking and cycling are not negligible in economically developed countries which have high dietary-related emissions. There is high uncertainty about the actual emissions associated with walking and cycling, and high variability based on country economic development. Our study highlights the need to consider emissions from other sectors when estimating net-emissions impacts from transport interventions.

We aim to understand how a streetscape intervention, Te Ara Mua- Future Streets, designed to improve the ease and safety of active modes, influenced perceptions of neighbourhood safety and security in Māngere, New Zealand. In this controlled intervention study, survey, focus group and in-depth interview data on neighbourhood perceptions were gathered from adults and children in 2014 and 2017, before and after the intervention. General Linear Mixed Modelling (GLMM) was used to undertake a difference in differences analysis of the individual level survey data on traffic and neighbourhood safety perceptions. Focus group and interview data were analysed thematically. Survey data indicate improvements in neighbourhood safety but not traffic safety perceptions after the streetscape upgrade. Conversely, focus group and interview data suggest enduring fears around people and dogs, but an easing of traffic-related fears attributed to safer crossings and slower vehicle speeds. Our contrasting quantitative and qualitative findings demonstrate a complex interplay of neighbourhood people and place attributes in shaping residents’ experiences of safety and security, and therefore the importance of combining personal safety and traffic safety, as well as multiple measures, when investigating pathways between built environment change and active travel.

Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government implemented nationwide traffic restrictions and self-quarantine measures from January 23 to April 8 (in Wuhan), 2020. We estimated how these measures impacted ambient air pollution and the subsequent consequences on health and the health-related economy in 367 Chinese cities. A random forests modeling was used to predict the business-as-usual air pollution concentrations in 2020, after adjusting for the impact of long-term trend and weather conditions. We calculated changes in mortality attributable to reductions in air pollution in early 2020 and health-related economic benefits based on the value of statistical life (VSL). Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, we estimated 1239 (95% CI: 844–1578) PM2.5-related deaths were avoided, as were 2777 (95% CI: 1565–3995) PM10-related deaths, 1587 (95% CI: 98–3104) CO-related deaths, 4711 (95% CI: 3649–5781) NO2-related deaths, 215 (95% CI: 116–314) O3-related deaths, and 1088 (95% CI: 774–1421) SO2-related deaths. Based on the reduction in deaths, economic benefits for in PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, O3, and SO2 were 1.22, 2.60, 1.36, 4.05, 0.20, and 0.95 billion USD, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the substantial benefits in human health and health-related costs due to improved urban air quality during the COVID lockdown period in China in early 2020.

In low-cycling countries like Aotearoa New Zealand, women are much less likely to cycle. Previous research has identified improvements to cycling infrastructure and increasing gender equality as key ways to open up cycling to women. The electric bicycle (or e-bike) may be another tool that could be used to lift women’s cycling rates. In this paper we explored findings from the Electric City research project in Auckland, Aotearoa New Zealand that touched on aspects of gender and e-cycling experience. We used data from interviews with three groups, e-cyclists, e-bike retailers, and cycling planners and policy-makers, to gain insights into the gendered dimensions of the e-cycling assemblage (rider, bike, environment). The results showed that e-bikes act as a cycling enabler for women in ways that both reinforce as well as challenge aspects of traditional gender socialisation: E-bikes enable women to meet traditional care responsibilities, and achieve traditional feminine expectations of presentation on a bike. However, they also increase women’s cycling confidence and assertiveness, provide less fit women with more empowering physical activity experiences, improve the quality of bikes available to women, and can create more inclusive bike retail environments. We concluded that these benefits are less likely to be available to lower-income women, due to the high cost of e-bikes.

Summary: Background: Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change. Methods: In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities. Findings: We estimated that in the period 2080–95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441–7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760–100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific. Interpretation: Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future. Funding: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, and Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness.

Abstract Background Efforts to improve health equity should be informed by the best available evidence. However, equity-related research is inconsistently indexed, and uses a variety of terms to describe key concepts, making it difficult to reliably identify all relevant studies. We report the development and validation of a search strategy for studies investigating whether the effects of interventions differ by ethnicity or socio-economic status, using the field of transport and health as an example. Methods Adapting previously described methods, we followed four steps: generation of a test set of eligible studies, search strategy development, search strategy validation, and documentation. Results Drawing from 12 systematic reviews, supplemented by additional studies identified by experts and colleagues, we identified a test set of 11 studies that met our eligibility criteria. We assigned five studies to a development set, which we used to develop and refine our search strategy. We assigned the remaining six studies to a validation set, against which we tested our final search strategy. The final search strategy identified all studies in both validation and development sets. Conclusions The validated search strategy derived in this study facilitates the conduct of systematic reviews and other literature searches investigating whether the effects of interventions differ by ethnicity or socio-economic status and may be further developed in future for other equity-focused searches and reviews.

OBJECTIVE: Studies of loud noise exposure and vestibular schwannomas (VS) have shown conflicting results. The population-based INTERPHONE case‒control study was conducted in 13 countries during 2000–2004. In this paper, we report the results of analyses on the association between VS and self-reported loud noise exposure. METHODS: Self-reported noise exposure was analyzed in 1024 VS cases and 1984 matched controls. Life-long noise exposure was estimated through detailed questions. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using adjusted conditional logistic regression for matched sets. RESULTS: The OR for total work and leisure noise exposure was 1.6 (95% CI 1.4–1.9). OR were 1.5 (95% CI 1.3–1.9) for only occupational noise, 1.9 (95% CI 1.4–2.6) for only leisure noise and 1.7 (95% CI 1.2–2.2) for exposure in both contexts. OR increased slightly with increasing lag-time. For occupational exposures, duration, time since exposure start and a metric combining lifetime duration and weekly exposure showed significant trends of increasing risk with increasing exposure. OR did not differ markedly by source or other characteristics of noise. CONCLUSION: The consistent associations seen are likely to reflect either recall bias or a causal association, or potentially indicate a mixture of both.

Climate change is disruptive because virtually all aspects of our lives are best located in the Goldilocks zone: the place where it is “not too hot and not too cold but just right”. Rising greenhouse gases are heating the globe faster than has ever occurred before, and record-breaking intense, extreme weather is becoming more common. In the last three years unexpectedly severe hurricanes, heatwaves and forest fires have affected millions of people. What makes disruption dangerous? I suggest low predictability, high scale, speed and lack of reversibility are good guides. Risks to health are direct and indirect and include also the “transition risks” associated with responses to climate change. Sometimes disruption is welcome because it provides opportunities for radical action that would not be possible otherwise: in this vein, it has been argued that climate change is “not just a challenge, but the greatest public health opportunity of the 21st century”. The co-benefits agenda (justifying climate interventions on the basis of positive outcomes in other sectors) is beguiling: it promises a relatively smooth way forward, but might an emphasis on win-win interventions distract from the radical changes that are needed? There are other reasons for caution – the intersection of climate and health policies may contain trade-offs as well as synergies, and the prospect of future gains that outweigh immediate losses is seldom, on its own, sufficient to change in-grained behaviours and policies. Keywords: Climate change, Health, Co-benefits, Mitigation, Transport, Air pollution

Abstract Objective: To determine if global warming has changed the balance of summer and winter deaths in Australia. Methods: Counts of summer and winter cause‐specific deaths of subjects aged 55 and over for the years 1968–2018 were entered into a Poisson time‐series regression. Analysis was stratified by states and territories of Australia, by sex, age and cause of death (respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases). The warmest and coldest subsets of seasons were compared. Results: Warming over 51 years was associated with a long‐term increase in the ratio of summer to winter mortality from 0.73 in the summer of 1969 to 0.83 in the summer of 2018. The increase occurred faster in years that were warmer than average. Conclusions: Mortality in the warmest and coldest times of the year is converging as annual average temperatures rise. Implications for public health: If climate change continues, deaths in the hottest months will come to dominate the burden of mortality in Australia.

As air pollution varies significantly in both space and time, commuter exposure may differ considerably depending on the route taken between home to work. This is especially the case for active mode commuters who often have a wider range of route choices available to them compared with those traveling by private motor vehicle or by public transport. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of route choice on air pollution exposure among active commuters, and to estimate, based on modeling, the health benefits able to be achieved from air pollution exposure reductions, modeled across a population, through route optimization. We searched for studies that used portable personal air pollution monitoring equipment during active mode commuting, and reported measurements of air quality on at least two routes, either as a journey to work or to school. The World Health Organization (WHO) model AirQ+ was then exploited to estimate the premature deaths attributable to air pollution according to route choice. Ten publications were identified that met the inclusion criteria. Ultrafine particle counts (UFP), black carbon (BC), and carbon monoxide (CO) were the most commonly measured pollutants in the studies identified. The exposures associated with “high exposure” and “low exposure” routes (categorized based on differences in traffic counts on the roads along the commute route or walking on opposite sides of the road with different levels of traffic traveling in each direction) were found to vary on average by 30 ± 8%, 42 ± 35%, and 55 ± 17% for BC, CO and UFP, respectively. On the basis of modeling, and on the estimated exposures to BC, up to 36 out of 10,000 deaths could be prevented by choosing a low exposure route compared with a high exposure route during active commuting. The results of this study may be useful for both individuals in their commute planning, and also for urban transport planners as impetus for investing in infrastructure to support healthy active mode commuting.

Heavy rainfall is associated with increased risk of waterborne disease. However, it is not known whether the risk increment differs between wet and dry regions. We examined this question in New Zealand, which has a wide geographical variation of annual rainfall totals (10th–90th percentile difference ≥3000 mm).We conducted a nested case-crossover study within a prospective child cohort (born in 2009–2010) for assessing transient health effects when modified by longitudinal exposures to rainfall. Short-term heavy rainfall effects on hospitalizations due to enteric bacterial and viral infectious causes at lag of 0–14 days were assessed using a Cox regression model adjusted for daily temperature, relative humidity and evapotranspiration. We derived quantiles of time-weighted long-term rainfall levels at the children’s homes and these were added as an interaction term to the short-term effect model.Hospitalization risks were higher two days after heavy rainfall days (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.73 [1.10–2.70]). The lowest-observable-adverse-effect-level was detected at the 94th percentile of daily rainfall total. Hospital admissions 1–2 days after heavy rainfall increased most in locations with the lowest and highest long-term rainfall. An interaction of this kind between short-term weather and long-term climate has not been reported previously. It is relevant to climate change risk assessments given global projections of increasing intensity of precipitation, against a background of more severe, and possibly more frequent, droughts and flooding.

Abstract Objective: As relatively little is known about how socioeconomic position might have affected health prior to the Second World War, we aimed to study lifespan by occupational class in two cohorts in New Zealand. Methods: The first study included men on the electoral rolls in Dunedin in the period 1893 to 1902. The second study used an established cohort of male military personnel who were recruited for the First World War. Linear regression was used to estimate lifespan by occupational class. Results: The first study of 259 men on the electoral rolls found no substantive lifespan differences between the high and low occupational class groups. But the second study of 2,406 military personnel found that men in the three highest occupational classes lived 3.5 years longer (95%CI: 0.3–6.8 years) than the three lowest classes (in the multivariable analysis adjusting for age in 1918 and rurality of occupation). Conclusions: We found no significant lifespan differences in one cohort, but a second cohort is the earliest demonstration to our knowledge of substantial differences in mortality by socioeconomic position in this country prior to the 1960s. Implications for public health: This study provides historical context to the long‐term efforts to address health inequalities in society.

Abstract Background Evidence is mounting to suggest a causal relationship between the built environment and people’s physical activity behaviours, particularly active transport. The evidence base has been hindered to date by restricted consideration of cost and economic factors associated with built environment interventions, investigation of socioeconomic or ethnic differences in intervention effects, and an inability to isolate the effect of the built environment from other intervention types. The aims of this systematic review were to identify which environmental interventions increase physical activity in residents at the local level, and to build on the evidence base by considering intervention cost, and the differential effects of interventions by ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Methods A systematic database search was conducted in June 2015. Articles were eligible if they reported a quantitative empirical study (natural experiment or a prospective, retrospective, experimental, or longitudinal research) investigating the relationship between objectively measured built environment feature(s) and physical activity and/or travel behaviours in children or adults. Quality assessment was conducted and data on intervention cost and whether the effect of the built environment differed by ethnicity or socioeconomic status were extracted. Results Twenty-eight studies were included in the review. Findings showed a positive effect of walkability components, provision of quality parks and playgrounds, and installation of or improvements in active transport infrastructure on active transport, physical activity, and visits or use of settings. There was some indication that infrastructure improvements may predominantly benefit socioeconomically advantaged groups. Studies were commonly limited by selection bias and insufficient controlling for confounders. Heterogeneity in study design and reporting limited comparability across studies or any clear conclusions to be made regarding intervention cost. Conclusions Improving neighbourhood walkability, quality of parks and playgrounds, and providing adequate active transport infrastructure is likely to generate positive impacts on activity in children and adults. The possibility that the benefits of infrastructure improvements may be inequitably distributed requires further investigation. Opportunities to improve the quality of evidence exist, including strategies to improve response rates and representativeness, use of valid and reliable measurement tools, cost-benefit analyses, and adequate controlling for confounders.

Abstract Background The health status of Indigenous populations of Australia and New Zealand (NZ) Māori manifests as life expectancies substantially lower than the total population. Accurate assessment of time trends in mortality and life expectancy allows evaluation of progress in reduction of health inequalities compared to the national or non-Indigenous population. Methods Age-specific mortality and life expectancy (at birth) (LE) for Indigenous populations (Australia from 1990 and NZ from 1950); and all Australia and non-Māori NZ (from 1890), males (M) and females (F), were obtained from published sources and national statistical agency reports. Period trends were assessed for credible estimates of Indigenous LE, and the LE gap compared to the total population for Australia, and non-Māori for NZ. Period trends in premature adult mortality, as cumulative probability of dying over 15–59 years, were assessed similarly. The relative contribution of differences in age-specific mortality to the LE gap between Indigenous and the all-Australia population, and the non-Māori NZ, was estimated for each country by sex for the most recent period: 2010–2012 for Australia, 2012–2014 for NZ. Results LE increased for all populations, although LE gaps between Indigenous and all Australia showed little change over time. LE gaps between NZ Māori and non-Māori increased significantly from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, and since then have fallen again. Recent LE gaps in Australia (M 12.5; F 12.0 years in 2010–2012) were larger than in NZ (M 7.3; F 6.8 years in 2012–2014). Premature adult mortality (15–59 years) improved for all populations, but mortality ratios show little change since 2000, with Indigenous at 3½-4 times that of all Australians, and Māori 2–3 times that of non-Māori. Using decomposition analysis, the age interval contributing most strongly to differences in LE between Indigenous and all Australia was 35–59 years, but between Māori and non-Māori it was 60–74 years. Conclusion In Australia and NZ, Indigenous LE and adult mortality are improving in absolute terms, but not relative to the entire or non-Indigenous populations, causing gaps in life expectancy to persist.

Since 2001, a synthesizing element in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports has been a summary of how risks in a particular system could change with additional warming above pre-industrial levels, generally accompanied by a figure called the burning embers. We present a first effort to develop burning embers for climate change risks for heat-related morbidity and mortality, ozone-related mortality, malaria, diseases carried by Aedes sp., Lyme disease, and West Nile fever. We used an evidence-based approach to construct the embers based on a comprehensive global literature review. Projected risks for these health outcomes under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and >2 °C of warming were used to estimate at what temperatures risk levels increased from undetectable to medium, high, and very high, from the pre-industrial baseline, under three adaptation scenarios. Recent climate change has likely increased risks from undetectable to moderate for heat-related morbidity and mortality, ozone-related mortality, dengue, and Lyme disease. Recent climate change also was assessed as likely beginning to affect the burden of West Nile fever. A detectable impact of climate change on malaria is not yet apparent but is expected to occur with additional warming. The risk for each climate-sensitive health outcome is projected to increase as global mean surface temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, with the extent and pace of adaptation expected to affect the timing and magnitude of risks. The embers may be an effective tool for informing efforts to build climate-resilient health systems including through vulnerability, capacity, and adaptation assessments and the development of national adaptation plans. The embers also can be used to raise awareness of future threats from climate change and advocate for mitigation actions to reduce the overall magnitude of health risks later this century and to expand current adaptation efforts to protect populations now.

BackgroundClimate change may significantly affect human health. The possible effects of high ambient temperature must be better understood, particularly in terms of certain diseases' sensitivity to heat (as reflected in relative risks [RR]) and the consequent disease burden (number or fraction of cases attributable to high temperatures), in order to manage the threat.PurposeThis study investigated the number of deaths attributable to abnormally high ambient temperatures in Seoul, South Korea, for a wide range of diseases.MethodThe relationship between mortality and daily maximum temperature using a generalized linear model was analyzed. The threshold temperature was defined as the 90th percentile of maximum daily temperatures. Deaths were classified according to ICD-10 codes, and for each disease, the RR and attributable fractions were determined. Using these fractions, the total number of deaths attributable to daily maximum temperatures above the threshold value, from 1992 to 2009, was calculated. Data analyses were conducted in 2012-2013.ResultsHeat-attributable deaths accounted for 3,177 of the 271,633 deaths from all causes. Neurological (RR 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11) and mental and behavioral disorders (RR 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07) had relatively high increases in the RR of mortality. The most heat-sensitive diseases (those with the highest RRs) were not the diseases that caused the largest number of deaths attributable to high temperatures.ConclusionThis study estimated RRs and deaths attributable to high ambient temperature for a wide variety of diseases. Prevention-related policies must account for both particular vulnerabilities (heat-sensitive diseases with high RRs) and the major causes of the heat mortality burden (common conditions less sensitive to high temperatures).

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the individual-level association of income poverty with being underweight, using tobacco, drinking alcohol, having access only to unsafe water and sanitation, being exposed to indoor air pollution and being obese. METHODS: Using survey data for as many countries as possible, we estimated the relative risk association between income or assets and risk factors at the individual level within 11 medium- and low-income subregions of WHO. WHO and The World Bank data on the prevalence of risk factors and income poverty (defined as living on < US$ 1.00 per day, US$ 1-2.00 per day and > US$ 2.00 per day) were analysed to impute the association between poverty and risk factors for each subregion. The possible effect of poverty reduction on the prevalence of risk factors was estimated using population-attributable risk percentages. FINDINGS: There were strong associations between poverty and malnutrition among children, having access only to unsafe water and sanitation, and being exposed to indoor air pollution within each subregion (relative risks were twofold to threefold greater for those living on < US$ 1.00 per day compared with those living on > US$ 2.00 per day). Associations between poverty and obesity, tobacco use and alcohol use varied across subregions. If everyone living on < US$ 2.00 per day had the risk factor profile of those living on > US$ 2.00 per day, 51% of exposures to unimproved water and sanitation could be avoided as could 37% of malnutrition among children and 38% of exposure to indoor air pollution. The more realistic, but still challenging, Millennium Development Goal of halving the number of people living on < US$ 1.00 per day would achieve much smaller reductions. CONCLUSION: To achieve large gains in global health requires both poverty eradication and public health action. The methods used in this study may be useful for monitoring pro-equity progress towards Millennium Development Goals.

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.

BackgroundIt is known that experience of a previous crash is related to incidence of future crashes in a cohort of New Zealand cyclists. This paper investigated if the strength of such association differed by crash involvement propensity and by the need for medical care in the previous crash.MethodsThe Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four national databases. The crash involvement propensity was estimated using propensity scores based on the participants' demographic, cycling and residential characteristics. Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed with multivariate and propensity score adjustments. Analyses were then stratified by quintiles of the propensity score.ResultsA total of 801 (31.0%) participants reported having experienced at least one bicycle crash in the twelve months prior to the baseline survey. They had a higher risk of experiencing crash events during follow-up (hazard ratio (HR): 1.43; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.60) but in the stratified analysis, this association was significant only in the highest two quintiles of the propensity score where the likelihood of having experienced a crash was more than 33%. The association was stronger for previous crashes that had received medical care (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.88) compared to those that had not (HR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.49).ConclusionsPrevious crash experience increased the risk of future crash involvement in high-risk cyclists and the association was stronger for previous crashes attended medically. What distinguishes the high risk group warrants closer investigation, and the findings indicate also that health service providers could play an important role in prevention of bicycle crash injuries.

The biological and physical environment of the planet is changing at an unprecedented rate as a result of human activity, and these changes may have an enormous impact on human health. One of the goals of human development is to protect health in the face of rapid environmental change, but we often fail to do this. The aim in this paper is to distinguish between socioeconomic aspects of development that are likely to be protective and those that are likely to increase vulnerability (the capacity for loss resulting from environmental change). Examples include climate change in the Pacific. We conclude that protecting human health in a changing world requires us to take steps to minimize harmful change wherever possible, and at the same time to be prepared for surprises. The goals of mitigation (reducing or preventing change) and adaptation (response to change) are not mutually exclusive. In fact, steps to make populations more resilient in the face of change are often similar to those that are needed to lighten the load on the environment. We need social policies that convert economic growth into human development. Wider application of sustainable development concepts is part of the solution. In particular, there is a need to promote health as an essential asset of poor and vulnerable populations. It is their key to productivity and to surviving shocks; it is also the key to achieving broader development goals such as universal education. For these reasons it is in the interests of all sectors - economic, social and environmental - to play their particular roles in protecting and improving health.