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Aims Aspirin is widely used in cardiovascular disease prevention but is also associated with an increased risk of bleeding. The net effect of aspirin on dementia and cognitive impairment is uncertain. Methods and results In the ASCEND trial, 15 480 people from the UK with diabetes and no history of cardiovascular disease were randomized to aspirin 100 mg daily or matching placebo for a mean of 7.4 years. The 15 427 ASCEND participants with no recorded dementia prior to baseline were included in this cognitive study with a primary pre-specified outcome of ‘broad dementia’, comprising dementia, cognitive impairment, or confusion. This was ascertained through participant, carer, or general practitioner report or hospital admission diagnosis, by 31 March 2019 (∼2 years beyond the scheduled treatment period). The broad dementia outcome occurred in a similar percentage of participants in the aspirin group and placebo group: 548 participants (7.1%) vs. 598 (7.8%), rate ratio 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81–1.02]. Thus, the CI excluded proportional hazards of >2% and proportional benefits of >19%. Conclusion Aspirin does not have a large proportional effect on the risk of dementia. Trials or meta-analyses with larger total numbers of incident dementia cases to increase statistical power are needed to assess whether any modest proportional 10–15% benefits of 5–7 years of aspirin use on dementia exist. Clinical Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN60635500; ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00135226.

Background Chronological age is the strongest risk factor for most chronic diseases. Developing a biomarker-based age and understanding its most important contributing biomarkers may shed light on the effects of age on later-life health and inform opportunities for disease prevention. Methods A subpopulation of 141 254 individuals healthy at baseline were studied, from among 480 019 UK Biobank participants aged 40–70 recruited in 2006–2010, and followed up for 6–12 years via linked death and secondary care records. Principal components of 72 biomarkers measured at baseline were characterized and used to construct sex-specific composite biomarker ages using the Klemera Doubal method, which derived a weighted sum of biomarker principal components based on their linear associations with chronological age. Biomarker importance in the biomarker ages was assessed by the proportion of the variation in the biomarker ages that each explained. The proportions of the overall biomarker and chronological age effects on mortality and age-related hospital admissions explained by the biomarker ages were compared using likelihoods in Cox proportional hazard models. Results Reduced lung function, kidney function, reaction time, insulin-like growth factor 1, hand grip strength, and higher blood pressure were key contributors to the derived biomarker age in both men and women. The biomarker ages accounted for >65% and >84% of the apparent effect of age on mortality and hospital admissions for the healthy and whole populations, respectively, and significantly improved prediction of mortality (p < .001) and hospital admissions (p < 1 × 10−10) over chronological age alone. Conclusions This study suggests that a broader, multisystem approach to research and prevention of diseases of aging warrants consideration.

Aims Statins are widely used to prevent cardiovascular events, but little is known about the impact of different risk factors for statin-related myopathy or their relevance to reports of other types of muscle symptom. Methods and results An observational analysis was undertaken of 171 clinically adjudicated cases of myopathy (defined as unexplained muscle pain or weakness with creatine kinase >10× upper limit of normal) and, separately, of 15 208 cases of other muscle symptoms among 58 390 individuals with vascular disease treated with simvastatin for a mean of 3.4 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent predictors of myopathy. The rate of myopathy was low: 9 per 10 000 person-years of simvastatin therapy. Independent risk factors for myopathy included: simvastatin dose, ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, medically treated diabetes, concomitant use of niacin-laropiprant, verapamil, beta-blockers, diltiazem and diuretics. In combination, these risk factors predicted more than a 30-fold risk difference between the top and bottom thirds of a myopathy risk score (hazard ratio : 34.35, 95% CI: 12.73–92.69, P across thirds = 9·1 × 10−48). However, despite the strong association with myopathy, this score was not associated with the other reported muscle symptoms (P across thirds = 0.93). Likewise, although SLCO1B1 genotype was associated with myopathy, it was not associated with other muscle symptoms. Conclusions The absolute risk of simvastatin-related myopathy is low, but individuals at higher risk can be identified to help guide patient management. The lack of association of the myopathy risk score with other muscle symptoms reinforces randomized placebo-controlled evidence that statins do not cause the vast majority of reported muscle symptoms.

BackgroundTaller adult height is associated with lower risks of ischaemic heart disease in both observational and Mendelian randomisation studies, but little is known about the causal relevance of height for different subtypes of ischaemic stroke and the mechanisms involved.MethodsHeight-associated genetic variants (up to 2,931) from previous genome-wide association studies were used to construct genetic instruments in different populations. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation approaches were used to examine the associations of genetically-determined height with ischaemic stroke and its subtypes in multiple ancestries (MEGASTROKE: 60,341 ischaemic stroke cases) supported by additional cases in Europeans (UK Biobank: 4,055 cases) and in Chinese (China Kadoorie Biobank: 10,297 cases). The associations of genetically-determined height with established cardiovascular and other risk factors were also examined in Europeans (UK Biobank: 336,750 participants) and Chinese (China Kadoorie Biobank: 58,277 participants).ResultsGenetically-determined height was inversely associated with ischaemic stroke (4% [95% CI: 1–7] lower risk per 1 standard deviation taller height in MEGASTROKE). This masked much stronger opposing associations of height with different subtypes, with a 12% (95% CI: 6–17) higher risk of cardioembolic stroke, 11% (6–16) lower risk of large-artery stroke, and 14% (9–18) lower risk of small-vessel stroke. Genetically-determined height was strongly positively associated with atrial fibrillation, lean body mass and lung function, and inversely associated with levels of LDL cholesterol and blood pressure in both Europeans and Chinese.ConclusionsIn multiple ancestries, genetic associations support the causal relevance of taller adult height for higher risk of cardioembolic stroke (in addition to atrial fibrillation) and lower risk of other ischaemic strokes, highlighting the need to properly differentiate subtypes of ischaemic stroke in both clinical practice and research.

BackgroundAge is the strongest risk factor for most chronic diseases, and yet individuals may age at different rates biologically. A biological age formed from biomarkers may be a stronger risk factor than chronological age and understanding what factors contribute to it could provide insight into new opportunities for disease prevention.Methods and findingsAmong 480,019 UK Biobank participants aged 40-70 recruited in 2006-2010 and followed up for 6-12 years via linked death registry and secondary care records, a subpopulation of 141,254 (29.4%) non-smoking adults in good health and with no medication use or disease history at baseline were identified. Independent components of 72 biomarkers measured at baseline were characterised by principal component analysis. The Klemera Doubal method (KDM), which derived a weighted sum of biomarker principal components based on the strengths of their linear associations with chronological age, was used to derive sex-specific biological ages in this healthy subpopulation. The proportions of the overall biological and chronological age effects on mortality, coronary heart disease and age-related non-fatal hospital admissions (based on a hospital frailty index) that were explained by biological age were assessed using log-likelihoods of proportional hazards models.Reduced lung function, reduced kidney function, slower reaction time, lower insulin-like-growth factor 1, lower hand grip strength and higher blood pressure were key contributors to biological age (explaining the highest percentages of its variance) in both men and women, while lower albumin, higher sex hormone-binding globulin and lower muscle mass in men, and higher liver enzymes, blood lipids and HbA1c in women were also important. Across both sexes, a 51-principal component biological age explained 66%, 80% and 63% of the age effects on mortality, coronary heart disease and hospital admissions, respectively. Restricting the biological age to the 12-13 key biomarkers corresponding to the 10 most importantly contributing principal components resulted in little change in these proportions for women, but a reduction to 53%, 63% and 50%, respectively, for men.ConclusionsThis study identified that markers of impaired function in a range of organs account for a substantial proportion of the apparent effect of age on disease and hospital admissions. It supports a broader, multi-system approach to research and prevention of diseases of ageing.

Study Hypothesis Recently, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several common variants associated with increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial infarction (MI) by 10% to 30%. The authors state that these loci explain only a small proportion of the predicted genetic risk and that all of the current loci for CAD and MI by GWAS have been discovered in European populations. The authors hypothesized that discovery of new susceptibility loci of smaller effect sizes would be aided by conducting much larger studies in addition to an emphasis on early-onset CAD and clearly defined clinical end points. Therefore, they assembled the Coronary Artery Disease (C4D) Genetics Consortium.1 ### How Was the Hypothesis Tested? The authors performed a meta-analysis of 4 large GWAS of CAD, 2 of European ancestry (PROCARDIS and HPS) and 2 of South Asian ancestry (PROMIS and LOLLIPOP), with ≈575 000 genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a discovery data set comprising 15 420 individuals with CAD (cases) (8424 Europeans and 6996 South Asians) and 15 062 control subjects. They observed little evidence for ancestry-specific associations, supporting the use of combined analyses. Furthermore, the authors state that because all individuals were genotyped on the same platform (whole-genome Illumina BeadChips), a meta-analysis of actual genotypes rather than imputed data enabled analysis of low-frequency variants (1% to 5%), which have been excluded from GWAS either because of sample size or because imputation has been required to combine data from different genotyping platforms. After the meta-analysis, they selected 59 SNPs from 50 loci that showed potential new associations from the meta-analysis of the European and South Asian studies (41 SNPs; P

Background and Purpose— Despite previous investigations, substantial uncertainty remains about the relation between body mass index (BMI) and stroke, especially in populations with a relatively low BMI but a high stroke rate. Methods— A nationally representative prospective study of mortality included 212 000 Chinese men 40 to 79 years old without known cardiovascular disease in 1990 to 1991 who were followed up for 10 years. Standardized hazard ratios were calculated for stroke mortality by baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) and BMI. Results— Mean SBP and BMI were 124 mm Hg and 21.7 kg/m 2 , respectively. During 10 years of follow-up, 5766 stroke deaths were recorded. There were strong, positive relations between BMI and SBP and between SBP and stroke mortality, with a 3-mm Hg higher baseline SBP associated with a 5.6% (95% CI, 5.3% to 6.0%; P 25 kg/m 2 ( P 2 , and among them, BMI was not associated with stroke mortality despite its strong association with BP (which continued to a BMI 2 ). The relation with BMI was similar for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke but appeared to be steeper among lifelong nonsmokers than among current smokers ( P =0.01 for difference between slopes) despite similarly positive relations between BMI and SBP and between SBP and stroke risk in both smoking categories. Conclusions— High BMI was strongly associated with increased stroke mortality only among men who were overweight or obese.

BACKGROUND: In China, there have been few large prospective studies of the associations of body mass index (BMI) with overall and cause-specific mortality that have simultaneously controlled for biases that can be caused by pre-existing disease and smoking. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 224 064 men, of whom 40 700 died during follow-up between 1990-91 and 2006. Analyses restricted to 142 214 men aged 40-79 years at baseline with no disease history and, to further reduce bias from pre-existing disease, at least 5 years of subsequent follow-up, leaving 17 800 deaths [including 4165 stroke, 1297 coronary heart disease (CHD), 3121 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)]. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) per 5 kg/m(2) calculated within either a lower (15 to

Background Lowering of LDL cholesterol reduces major vascular events, but whether more intensive therapy safely produces extra benefits is uncertain. We aimed to establish efficacy and safety of more intensive statin treatment in patients at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We undertook a double-blind randomised trial in 12 064 men and women aged 18–80 years with a history of myocardial infarction. Participants were either currently on or had clear indication for statin therapy, and had a total cholesterol concentration of at least 3·5 mmol/L if already on a statin or 4·5 mmol/L if not. Randomisation to either 80 mg or 20 mg simvastatin daily was done centrally using a minimisation algorithm. Participants were assessed at 2, 4, 8, and 12 months after randomisation and then every 6 months until final follow-up. The primary endpoint was major vascular events, defined as coronary death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or arterial revascularisation. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN74348595. Findings 6031 participants were allocated 80 mg simvastatin daily, and 6033 allocated 20 mg simvastatin daily. During a mean follow-up of 6·7 (SD 1·5) years, allocation to 80 mg simvastatin produced an average 0·35 (SE 0·01) mmol/L greater reduction in LDL cholesterol compared with allocation to 20 mg. Major vascular events occurred in 1477 (24·5%) participants allocated 80 mg simvastatin versus 1553 (25·7%) of those allocated 20 mg, corresponding to a 6% proportional reduction (risk ratio 0·94, 95% CI 0·88–1·01; p=0·10). There were no apparent differences in numbers of haemorrhagic strokes (24 [0·4%] vs 25 [0·4%]) or deaths attributed to vascular (565 [9·4%] vs 572 [9·5%]) or non-vascular (399 [6·6%] vs 398 [6·6%]) causes. Compared with two (0·03%) cases of myopathy in patients taking 20 mg simvastatin daily, there were 53 (0·9%) cases in the 80 mg group. Interpretation The 6% (SE 3·5%) reduction in major vascular events with a further 0·35 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol in our trial is consistent with previous trials. Myopathy was increased with 80 mg simvastatin daily, but intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol can be achieved safely with other regimens. Funding Merck; The Clinical Trial Service Unit also receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the British Heart Foundation.

AIMS: Plasma levels of apolipoprotein B (apoB), the main surface protein on LDL particles, and LDL-C, the amount of cholesterol in those particles, are closely correlated and, considered separately, are positive risk factors. Plasma levels of apolipoprotein A(1), the main surface protein on HDL particles, and HDL-C, the amount of cholesterol in those particles, are also closely correlated with each other and, considered separately, are negative risk factors. The interdependence of these four risk factors is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: Case-control study among 3510 acute myocardial infarction patients (without prior vascular disease, diabetes, or statin use) in UK hospitals and 9805 controls. Relative risks (age, sex, smoking, and obesity-adjusted) were more strongly related to apoB than to LDL-C and, given apoB, more strongly negatively related to apoA(1) than to HDL-C. The ratio apoB/apoA(1) was uncorrelated with time since symptom onset in cases, was reproducible in samples collected a few years apart in controls (correlation 0.81), and encapsulated almost all the predictive power of these four measurements. Its effect was continuous, substantial throughout the UK normal range [relative risk, top vs. bottom decile of this ratio, 7.3 (95% CI 5.8-9.2)] and varied little with age. The ratio apoB/apoA(1) was substantially more informative about risk (chi(1)(2) = 550) than were commonly used measures such as LDL-C/HDL-C, total/HDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, and total cholesterol (chi(1)(2) = 407, 334, 204, and 105, respectively). Given apoB and apoA(1), the relationship with risk of LDL-C was reversed, and this reversal was strengthened by appropriate allowance for random measurement errors in two correlated variables. Given usual apoB, lower LDL-C (consistent with smaller LDL particles) was associated with higher risk (P < 0.0001). During the first 8 h after symptom onset HDL-C increased by about 10%, precluding reliable assessment of the joint relationship of apoA(1) and pre-onset HDL-C with risk in such retrospective case-control studies. CONCLUSION: Apolipoprotein ratios are more informative about risk than lipid fractions are. This suggests that, among lipoprotein particles of a particular type (LDL or HDL), some smaller and larger subtypes differ in their effects on risk. Direct measurements of even more specific subtypes of lipoprotein particles may be even more informative about risk.

Several epidemiological studies have reported on the association between body mass index (BMI) and risk of esophageal cancer, but these were mostly in Western populations where many are overweight or obese. There is little direct evidence about the relationship in China where the mean BMI is relatively low and the disease rate is high. We examined the data from a populationbased prospective study of 220,000 Chinese men aged 40–79 without a previous history of cancer (mean BMI 21.7 kg/m 2 ), which included 1,082 esophageal cancer deaths during 10 years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for death from esophageal cancer by baseline BMI category were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Even among men with good self-assessed health and BMI 18.5 kg/m 2 , there was a strong inverse association between BMI and death from esophageal cancer, with each 5 kg/ m 2 higher BMI associated with 25% (95%CI: 11–36%) lower esophageal cancer mortality. This inverse association persisted when analysis was restricted to men who had never smoked or when the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. The strength of the relationship was consistent with the pooled estimate for squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus in a meta-analysis of prospective studies (31% lower relative risk per 5 kg/m 2 higher BMI; 95% CI: 25–37%), but contrasted with that for adenocarcinoma which showed a positive association with BMI. Together, these data provide reliable evidence that in many populations low BMI is associated with an increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus. ' 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Aims Statins reduce LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) and the risk of vascular events, but it remains uncertain whether there is clinically relevant genetic variation in their efficacy. This study of 18 705 individuals aims to identify genetic variants related to the lipid response to simvastatin and assess their impact on vascular risk response.Methods and results A genome-wide study of the LDL-C and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) response to 40 mg simvastatin daily was performed in 3895 participants in the Heart Protection Study, and the nine strongest associations were tested in 14 810 additional participants. Selected candidate genes were also tested in up to 18 705 individuals. There was 90% power to detect differences of 2.5% in LDL-C response (e.g. 42.5 vs. 40% reduction) in the genome-wide study and of 1% in the candidate gene study. None of the associations from the genome-wide study was replicated, and nor were significant associations found for 26 of 36 candidates tested. Novel lipid response associations with variants in LPA, CELSR2/PSRC1/SORT1, and ABCC2 were found, as well as confirmatory evidence for published associations in LPA, APOE, and SLCO1B1. The largest and most significant effects were with LPA and APOE, but were only 2–3% per allele. Reductions in the risk of major vascular events during 5 years of statin therapy among 18 705 high-risk patients did not differ significantly across genotypes associated with the lipid response.Conclusions Common genetic variants do not appear to alter the lipid response to statin therapy by more than a few per cent, and there were similar large reductions in vascular risk with simvastatin irrespective of genotypes associated with the lipid response to simvastatin. Consequently, their value for informing clinical decisions related to maximizing statin efficacy appears to be limited.

Background— Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol are established risk factors for vascular disease, but lipoprotein particle concentrations may be stronger determinants of risk. Methods and Results— Associations between vascular events and baseline concentrations of cholesterol fractions, apolipoproteins B and A 1 , and lipoprotein particles assessed by nuclear magnetic resonance were considered in the Heart Protection Study randomized trial of simvastatin versus placebo (>5000 vascular events during 5.3 years of follow-up among 20 000 participants). Major occlusive coronary events were equally strongly associated with the cholesterol- and particle-based total LDL measures; adjusted hazard ratios per 1-SD-higher level were 1.25 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16–1.34) for LDL cholesterol, 1.22 (95% CI, 1.14–1.32) for non–HDL cholesterol, 1.23 (95% CI, 1.15–1.33) for apolipoprotein B, and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16–1.35) for LDL particle number. Given the total LDL particle number, the distribution between small and large particles did not add predictive value. Associations of these different LDL-related measures were similar with arterial revascularization procedures but much weaker or nonexistent with ischemic stroke and other cardiac events (mainly heart failure). After adjustment for LDL particle number, the hazard ratios for major occlusive coronary event per 1-SD-higher level were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.86–0.96) for HDL cholesterol and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.85–0.93) for HDL particle number. Other cardiac events were inversely associated with total (hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79–0.90) and small (0.82; 95% CI, 0.76–0.89) HDL particle number but only very weakly associated with HDL cholesterol (0.94; 95% CI, 0.88–1.00). Conclusions— In a population at 2% average coronary event risk per year, cholesterol, apolipoprotein, and particle measures of LDL were strongly correlated and had similar predictive values for incident major occlusive vascular events. It is unclear whether the associations between HDL particle numbers and other cardiac events represent a causal or reverse-causal effect. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.isrctn.org/ . Unique identifier: ISRCTN48489393.

Background Lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with statin therapy results in substantial reductions in cardiovascular events, and larger reductions in cholesterol may produce larger benefits. In rare cases, myopathy occurs in association with statin therapy, especially when the statins are administered at higher doses and with certain other medications. Methods We carried out a genomewide association study using approximately 300,000 markers (and additional fine-mapping) in 85 subjects with definite or incipient myopathy and 90 controls, all of whom were taking 80 mg of simvastatin daily as part of a trial involving 12,000 participants. Replication was tested in a trial of 40 mg of simvastatin daily involving 20,000 participants. Results The genomewide scan yielded a single strong association of myopathy with the rs4363657 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) located within SLCO1B1 on chromosome 12 (P=4x10(-9)). SLCO1B1 encodes the organic anion-transporting polypeptide OATP1B1, which has been shown to regulate the hepatic uptake of statins. The noncoding rs4363657 SNP was in nearly complete linkage disequilibrium with the nonsynonymous rs4149056 SNP (r(2)=0.97), which has been linked to statin metabolism. The prevalence of the rs4149056 C allele in the population was 15%. The odds ratio for myopathy was 4.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6 to 7.7) per copy of the C allele, and 16.9 (95% CI, 4.7 to 61.1) in CC as compared with TT homozygotes. More than 60% of these myopathy cases could be attributed to the C variant. The association of rs4149056 with myopathy was replicated in the trial of 40 mg of simvastatin daily, which also showed an association between rs4149056 and the cholesterol-lowering effects of simvastatin. No SNPs in any other region were clearly associated with myopathy. Conclusions We have identified common variants in SLCO1B1 that are strongly associated with an increased risk of statin-induced myopathy. Genotyping these variants may help to achieve the benefits of statin therapy more safely and effectively. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN74348595.)

BACKGROUND: Increased body mass index (BMI) is known to be related to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in populations where many are overweight (BMI>or=25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI>or=30). Substantial uncertainty remains, however, about the relationship between BMI and IHD in populations with lower BMI levels. METHODS: We examined the data from a population-based, prospective cohort study of 222,000 Chinese men aged 40-79. Relative and absolute risks of death from IHD by baseline BMI were calculated, standardized for age, smoking, and other potential confounding factors. RESULTS: The mean baseline BMI was 21.7 kg/m2, and 1942 IHD deaths were recorded during 10 years of follow-up (6.5% of all such deaths). Among men without prior vascular diseases at baseline, there was a J-shaped association between BMI and IHD mortality. Above 20 kg/m2 there was a positive association of BMI with risk, with each 2 kg/m2 higher in usual BMI associated with 12% (95% CI 6-19%, 2P=0.0001) higher IHD mortality. Below this BMI range, however, the association appeared to be reversed, with risk ratios of 1.00, 1.09, and 1.15, respectively, for men with BMI 20-21.9, 18-19.9, and

The results of recent theoretical and experimental studies of NH3‐H2 collisions are summarized. Particular attention is paid to the possibility that the collisional propensity rules differ for excitation by ortho‐ and para‐H2.

Cross-sections have been computed for the excitation of ortho- and para-NH3 by both ortho- and para-H2, using the quantum-mechanical close-coupling method. The dependences of the cross-sections on the rotational state of the H2 molecule and on different determinations of the dispersion energy of interaction are investigated. The results are discussed in the context of recent crossed-beam measurements of NH3–H2 scattering.