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This study estimates the present and future distribution potential of 12 thermophilic and rare tree species for Europe based on climate-soil sensitive species distribution models (SDMs), and compares them to the two major temperate and boreal tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies). We used European national forest inventory data with 1.3 million plots to predict the distribution of the 12 + 2 tree species in Europe today and under future warming scenarios of +2.9 and +4.5 °C. The SDMs that were used to calculate the distributions were in a first step only given climate variables for explanation. In a second step, deviations which could not be explained by the climate models were tested in an additional soil variable-based model. Site-index models were applied to the found species distribution to estimate the growth performance (site index) under the given climate. We find a northward shift of 461 km and 697 km for the thermophilic species over the regarded time period from 2060 to 2080 under a warming scenario of 2.9 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. Potential winners of climatic warming have their distribution centroid below 48°N. Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies will lose great parts of their potential distribution range (approx. 55 and 60%, respectively). An index of area gain and growth performance revealed Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Quercus cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia as interesting alternatives in managed temperate forests currently dominated by F. sylvatica and P. abies. The 12 investigated species are already in focus in forestry and it has been shown that the changing climate creates conditions for a targeted promotion in European forests. Nevertheless, area winners exhibited lower growth performances. So, forest conversion with these warm-adapted species goes hand in hand with loss of overall growth performance compared to current species composition. So, the results are a premise for a further discussion on the ecological consequences and the consistency with forest socio-economic goals and conservation policies.

Key message Volume predictions of sample trees are basic inputs for essential National Forest Inventory (NFI) estimates. The predicted volumes are rarely comparable among European NFIs because of country-specific dbh-thresholds and differences regarding the inclusion of the tree parts stump, stem top, and branches. Twenty-one European NFIs implemented harmonisation measures to provide consistent stem volume predictions for comparable forest resource estimates. Context The harmonisation of forest information has become increasingly important. International programs and interest groups from the wood industry, energy, and environmental sectors require comparable information. European NFIs as primary source of forest information are well-placed to support policies and decision-making processes with harmonised estimates. Aims The main objectives were to present the implementation of stem volume harmonisation by European NFIs, to obtain comparable growing stocks according to five reference definitions, and to compare the different results. Methods The applied harmonisation approach identifies the deviations between country-level and common reference definitions. The deviations are minimised through country-specific bridging functions. Growing stocks were calculated from the un-harmonised, and harmonised stem volume estimates and comparisons were made. Results The country-level growing stock results differ from the Cost Action E43 reference definition between − 8 and + 32%. Stumps and stem tops together account for 4 to 13% of stem volume, and large branches constitute 3 to 21% of broadleaved growing stock. Up to 6% of stem volume is allocated below the dbh-threshold. Conclusion Comparable volume figures are available for the first time on a large-scale in Europe. The results indicate the importance of harmonisation for international forest statistics. The presented work contributes to the NFI harmonisation process in Europe in several ways regarding comparable NFI reporting and scenario modelling.

14 Pág., The quantification of forests available for wood supply (FAWS) is essential for decision-making with regard to the maintenance and enhancement of forest resources and their contribution to the global carbon cycle. The provision of harmonized forest statistics is necessary for the development of forest associated policies and to support decision-making. Based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from 13 European countries, we quantify and compare the areas and aboveground dry biomass (AGB) of FAWS and forest not available for wood supply (FNAWS) according to national and reference definitions by determining the restrictions and associated thresholds considered at country level to classify forests as FAWS or FNAWS. FAWS represent between 75 and 95 % of forest area and AGB for most of the countries in this study. Economic restrictions are the main factor limiting the availability of forests for wood supply, accounting for 67 % of the total FNAWS area and 56 % of the total FNAWS AGB, followed by environmental restrictions. Profitability, slope and accessibility as economic restrictions, and protected areas as environmental restrictions are the factors most frequently considered to distinguish between FAWS and FNAWS. With respect to the area of FNAWS associated with each type of restriction, an overlap among the restrictions of 13.7 % was identified. For most countries, the differences in the FNAWS areas and AGB estimates between national and reference definitions ranged from 0 to 5 %. These results highlight the applicability and reliability of a FAWS reference definition for most of the European countries studied, thereby facilitating a consistent approach to assess forests available for supply for the purpose of international reporting., This research was supported by the Specific contract n. 18 “Use of National Forest Inventories data to estimate area and above ground biomass in European forests not available for wood supply” in the context of the Framework contract for the provision of forest data and services supporting the European Forest Data Centre 2012/ S 78-127532 of 21/04/2012 of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission; the EG-013-72 agreement of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA) and the INIA belonging to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN); and the project No.APVV-15-0265 granted by the Slovak Research and Development Agency.

We simulated Austrian forests under different sustainable management scenarios. A reference scenario was compared to scenarios focusing on the provision of bioenergy, enhancing the delivery of wood products, and reduced harvesting rates. The standing stock of the stem biomass, carbon in stems, and the soil carbon pool were calculated for the period 2010&ndash, 2100. We used the forest growth model C&acirc, ldis and the soil carbon model Yasso07. The wood demand of all scenarios could be satisfied within the simulation period. The reference scenario led to a small decrease of the stem biomass. Scenarios aiming at a supply of more timber decreased the standing stock to a greater extent. Emphasizing the production of bioenergy was successful for several decades but ultimately exhausted the available resources for fuel wood. Lower harvesting rates reduced the standing stock of coniferous and increased the standing stock of deciduous forests. The soil carbon pool was marginally changed by different management strategies. We conclude that the production of long-living wood products is the preferred implementation of climate-smart forestry. The accumulation of carbon in the standing biomass is risky in the case of disturbances. The production of bioenergy is suitable as a byproduct of high value forest products.

Anthropogenic GHG emissions add a fast reinforcing feedback cycle to global carbon dynamics which continues to influence GHG concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere. When looking at forest carbon cycles there is potential in utilizing another feedback cycle, namely the carbon cycle involving harvested wood products. To assess the potential of the mitigation options arising from these carbon flows, the forest-based sector in Austria was modelled to assess causal links, dependencies and dynamics involved in GHG-relevant processes. Carbon dynamics were investigated in forests and forest soil carbon, the forest product chain and life-cycle analyses for substitution of conventional products with wood products in a cascade of different modelling approaches and paradigms, and the results synthesized. It was found that material use of products from domestic timber sources has the highest climate change mitigation efficiency when originating from sustainably managed forests regarding biomass stocks. The emissions saved through building up a carbon stock from harvested wood products and through emissions substitution can be as high as ∼20 years of total annual Austrian emissions in 90 years. Additional conservation measures while sustaining sawnwood production and the related GHG benefits at a high level had the highest contribution to an overall carbon sink.

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, articles 3.3 and 3.4 stipulate that some voluntary activities leading to an additional carbon (C) sequestration in soils could be accounted as C sinks in national greenhouse gas inventories. These additional C stocks should be verifiable. In this work, we assess the feasibility of verifying the effects of changes in land use or management practice on soil organic carbon (SOC), by comparing minimum detectable changes in SOC concentration for existing European networks suitable for soil monitoring. Among the tested scenarios, the minimum detectable changes differed considerably among the soil-monitoring networks (SMNs). Considerable effort would be necessary for some member states to reach acceptable levels of minimum detectable change for C sequestration accounting. For SOC, a time interval of about 10 years would enable the detection of some simulated large changes in most European countries. In almost all cases, the minimum detectable change in SOC stocks remains greater than annual greenhouse gases emissions. Therefore, it is unlikely that SMNs could be used for annual national C accounting. However, the importance of organic C in soil functions, and as an indicator of soil condition and trends, underlines the importance of establishing effective national SMNs.