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Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. Genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. Genetic monitoring supports the conservation and management of fisheries, game, and threatened populations. It also can contribute to the assessment of predicted and realized impacts of climate change, and their management. We report the first accounting of genetic monitoring efforts among countries in Europe (their ‘genetic monitoring capacity’, GMC) to determine where GMC suggests the combination of national infrastructure, political support and resources for continued and expanded monitoring. Overlaying GMC with areas where species ranges approach current and future climate niche limits (i.e., niche marginality) helps identify whether GMC coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area extent, financial resources, and conservation policy influence GMC, high values of which inconsistently match joint species patterns of climate niche marginality. Populations at niche margins likely hold genetic diversity that is important to adaptation to changing climate, and our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded genetic monitoring across the climate gradients occupied by species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries.

The species we have studied the spatiotemporal genetic change in the northern dragonhead, a plant species that has experienced a drastic population decline and habitat loss in Europe. We have added a temporal perspective to the monitoring of northern dragonhead in Norway by genotyping herbarium specimens up to 200 years old. We have also assessed whether northern dragonhead has achieved its potential distribution in Norway. To obtain the genotype data from 130 herbarium specimens collected from 1820 to 2008, mainly from Norway (83) but also beyond (47), we applied a microfluidic array consisting of 96 SNP markers. To assess temporal genetic change, we compared our new genotype data with existing data from modern samples. We used sample metadata and observational records to model the species' environmental niche and potential distribution in Norway. Our results show that the SNP array successfully genotyped all included herbarium specimens. Hence, with the appropriate design procedures, the SNP array technology appears highly promising for genotyping old herbarium specimens. The captured genetic diversity correlates negatively with distance from Norway. The historical-modern comparisons reveal similar genetic structure and diversity across space and limited genetic change through time in Norway, providing no signs of any regional bottleneck (i.e., spatiotemporal stasis). The regional areas in Norway have remained genetically divergent, however, both from each other and more so from populations outside of Norway, rendering continued protection of the species in Norway relevant. The ENM results suggest that northern dragonhead has not fully achieved its potential distribution in Norway and corroborate that the species is anchored in warmer and drier habitats. Spatiotemporal monitoring of the rare northern dragonhead (Dracocephalum ruyschiana, Lamiaceae) — SNP genotyping and environmental niche modeling herbarium specimens

Aim: We have studied population genetic change through time in the Northern dragonhead, Dracocephalum ruyschiana (Lamiaceae); a plant species that has experienced a drastic population decline and habitat loss in Europe. We aimed at adding a historic level to the monitoring of dragonhead by testing a microfluidic SNP array approach on herbarium specimens up to 200 years old and comparing the genomic results with that of modern populations in Norway. We also aimed to gain a more holistic species knowledge to guide monitoring efforts by combining herbarium genomics with ecological niche modelling (ENM). Location: Europe (mainly Norway) Methods: We have applied a microfluidic array consisting of 96 SNP markers on 130 herbarium specimens collected from 1820 to 2008. Obtained genotype data were compared with SNP data from modern samples using various population genetic analyses. We used sample metadata and observational records to model the species’ environmental niche. Results: The SNP array successfully genotyped all included herbarium specimens but was less capable of capturing diversity outside of Norway, which was genetically highly divergent from the Norwegian dragonheads. The historic-modern comparison revealed similar genetic structure in space and limited change through time in Norway. The ENM suggests that dragonhead has not fully achieved its potential distribution in Norway, which is anchored in warmer and drier regions, including areas where it does not occur today. Main conclusions: With the appropriate design procedures, the SNP array technology is promising for genotyping old herbarium specimens; an invaluable source of information from the past. We found no signs of the severe reduction in population size in our temporal genomic data of Norwegian dragonhead. Regardless, the regional populations in Norway are genetically divergent, both from each other and more so from populations outside of Norway, rendering continued protection of all existing populations of the species relevant.

The species we have studied the spatiotemporal genetic change in the northern dragonhead, a plant species that has experienced a drastic population decline and habitat loss in Europe. We have added a temporal perspective to the monitoring of northern dragonhead in Norway by genotyping herbarium specimens up to 200 years old. We have also assessed whether northern dragonhead has achieved its potential distribution in Norway. To obtain the genotype data from 130 herbarium specimens collected from 1820 to 2008, mainly from Norway (83) but also beyond (47), we applied a microfluidic array consisting of 96 SNP markers. To assess temporal genetic change, we compared our new genotype data with existing data from modern samples. We used sample metadata and observational records to model the species' environmental niche and potential distribution in Norway. Our results show that the SNP array successfully genotyped all included herbarium specimens. Hence, with the appropriate design procedures, the SNP array technology appears highly promising for genotyping old herbarium specimens. The captured genetic diversity correlates negatively with distance from Norway. The historical-modern comparisons reveal similar genetic structure and diversity across space and limited genetic change through time in Norway, providing no signs of any regional bottleneck (i.e., spatiotemporal stasis). The regional areas in Norway have remained genetically divergent, however, both from each other and more so from populations outside of Norway, rendering continued protection of the species in Norway relevant. The ENM results suggest that northern dragonhead has not fully achieved its potential distribution in Norway and corroborate that the species is anchored in warmer and drier habitats.

Despite increasing habitat fragmentation, large carnivore populations in parts of Europe have been recovering and expanding into human-dominated areas. Knowledge of animal dispersal patterns in such areas is important for their conservation, management, and coexistence with humans. We used genetic data based on 15 microsatellite markers from 312 individuals (98 females, 214 males) to assess kinship and dispersal patterns during the recovery and spatial expansion of a wild brown bear (Ursus arctos) population (2003–2010) in the humandominated landscape of Greece. We hypothesized that bear dispersal in Greece was sex-biased, with females being more philopatric and males dispersing more frequently and over greater distances. Dispersal indeed was sex-biased, with males dispersing more frequently and farther than females. Overall, females were found to be philopatric; males also appeared to be philopatric, but to a lesser degree. However, a high proportion of females displayed dispersal behavior, which may be indicative of a pre-saturation stage of the population in that part of the country. Our results indicate that dispersal may be due to evading competition and avoiding inbreeding. We also documented long-distance dispersal of bears, which is considered to be indicative of a spatially expanding population. Our results highlight the value of using noninvasive genetic monitoring data to assess kinship among individuals and study dispersal patterns in human-dominated landscapes. Brown bears remain threatened in Greece; we therefore recommend systematic genetic monitoring of the species in combination with careful habitat management to protect suitable habitat (i.e., dispersal corridors) and ultimately ensure co-existence with humans and survival of brown bears in the country. genetic relationship, Greece, kinship, spatial autocorrelation, wildlife conservation

Knowledge about the connectivity among natural populations is essential to identify management units for effective conservation actions. Conservation-minded management has led to the recovery of large carnivore populations in northern Europe, possibly restoring connectivity between the two separated, but expanding brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations on the Scandinavian peninsula to the west and Karelia, a part of the large Eurasian population, to the east. The degree of connectivity between these populations has been poorly understood, therefore we investigated the extent of connectivity between the two populations using autosomal microsatellites and Y chromosome haplotypes in 924 male bears (the dispersing sex), sampled during a period of 12 years (2005–2017) across the transborder area where these two populations meet. Our results showed that the two populations are not genetically isolated as reported in earlier studies. We detected recent asymmetrical gene flow at a rate (individuals per generation) of 4.6–5.5 (1%) from Karelia into Scandinavia, whereas the rate was approximately 27.1–34.5 (8%) in the opposite direction. We estimated historical gene flow of effective number of migrants to be between 1.7 and 2.5 between the populations. Analyses of Y chromosome markers supported these results. Successful recovery and expansion of both populations led to the restoration of connectivity, however, it is asymmetric, possibly due to different recovery histories and population densities. By aligning monitoring between neighboring countries, we were able to better understand the biological processes across the relevant spatial scale. Brown bear Genetic structure Male gene flow Microsatellites Migration Recovery Ursus arctos Wildlife monitoring Y chromosome

The Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) is a flagship species for marine conservation, but important aspects of its life history remain unknown. Concerns over imminent extinction motivated a nuclear DNA study of the species in its largest continuous subpopulation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Despite recent evidence of partial subpopulation recovery, we demonstrate that there is no reason for complacency, as the species still shares several traits that are characteristic of a critically endangered species: Mediterranean monk seals in the eastern Mediterranean survive in three isolated and genetically depauperate population clusters, with small effective population sizes and high levels of inbreeding. Our results indicated male philopatry over short distances, which is unexpected for a polygynous mammal. Such a pattern may be explained by the species’ unique breeding behavior, in which males defend aquatic territories near breeding sites, while females are often forced to search for new pupping areas. Immediate action is necessary to reverse the downward spiral of population decline, inbreeding accumulation and loss of genetic diversity. We propose concrete conservation measures for the Mediterranean monk seal focusing on reducing anthropogenic threats, increasing the population size and genetic diversity, and thus improving the long-term prospects of survival.

Conservation and management of large carnivores requires knowledge of female and male dispersal. Such information is crucial to evaluate the population’s status and thus management actions. This knowledge is challenging to obtain, often incomplete and contradictory at times. The size of the target population and the methods applied can bias the results. Also, population history and biological or environmental influences can affect dispersal on different scales within a study area. We have genotyped Eurasian lynx (180 males and 102 females, collected 2003–2017) continuously distributed in southern Finland (~23,000 km2) using 21 short tandem repeats (STR) loci and compared statistical genetic tests to infer local and sex-specific dispersal patterns within and across genetic clusters as well as geographic regions. We tested for sex-specific substructure with individual-based Bayesian assignment tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Differences between the sexes in genetic differentiation, relatedness, inbreeding, and diversity were analysed using population-based AMOVA, F-statistics, and assignment indices. Our results showed two different genetic clusters that were spatially structured for females but admixed for males. Similarly, spatial autocorrelation and relatedness was significantly higher in females than males. However, we found weaker sex-specific patterns for the Eurasian lynx when the data were separated in three geographical regions than when divided in the two genetic clusters. Overall, our results suggest male-biased dispersal and female philopatry for the Eurasian lynx in Southern Finland. The female genetic structuring increased from west to east within our study area. In addition, detection of male-biased dispersal was dependent on analytical methods utilized, on whether subtle underlying genetic structuring was considered or not, and the choice of population delineation. Conclusively, we suggest using multiple genetic approaches to study sex-biased dispersal in a continuously distributed species in which population delineation is difficult.

Large terrestrial carnivores can sometimes display strong family bonds affecting the spatial distribution of related individuals. We studied the spatial genetic relatedness and family structure of female Eurasian lynx, continuously distributed in southern Finland. We hypothesized that closely related females form matrilineal assemblages, clustering together with relatives living in the neighboring areas. We evaluated this hypothesis using tissue samples of 133 legally harvested female lynx (from year 2007 to 2015), genotyped with 23 microsatellite markers, and tested for possible spatial genetic family structure using a combination of Bayesian clustering, spatial autocorrelation, and forensic genetic parentage analysis. The study population had three potential family genetic clusters, with a high degree of admixture and geographic overlap, and showed a weak but significant negative relationship between pairwise genetic and geographic distance. Moreover, parentage analysis indicated that 64% of the females had one or more close relatives (sister, mother, or daughter) within the study population. Individuals identified as close kin consistently assigned to the same putative family genetic cluster. They also were sampled closer geographically than females on average, although variation was large. Our results support the possibility that Eurasian lynx forms matrilineal assemblages, and comparisons with males are now required to further assess this hypothesis.

Gray wolf populations have been recovering recently across Europe, a fact that poses serious challenges to the management of the species. We investigate the population genetics of wolves at the south-eastern edge of their European range, in Greece, and identify conservation priorities for the species in the country. During population monitoring efforts (1998–2014) 48 tissue and hair samples were collected and genotyped at 14 microsatellite loci. Eight samples were discarded from further downstream analysis because of possible dog-wolf admixture. Unlike many other edge populations, wolves in Greece showed high levels of genetic variation (HE = 0.73; HO = 0.66). We detected two genetic clusters of wolves but no genetic bottleneck, which suggests that the human-caused population reduction of wolves in Greece may not have been as severe as previously assumed and that enough wolves may have survived in inaccessible areas and/or neighboring countries to maintain genetic diversity. Two of the main conservation priorities identified for gray wolves in Greece are non-invasive genetic monitoring and ensuring the functional connectivity of the Natura 2000 network through the identification and protection of ecological corridors and road-less areas.

The degree of gene flow within and among populations, i.e. genetic population connectivity, may closely track demographic population connectivity. Alternatively, the rate of gene flow may change relative to the rate of dispersal. In this study, we explored the relationship between genetic and demographic population connectivity using the Scandinavian brown bear as model species, due to its pronounced male dispersal and female philopatry. Thus, we expected that females would shape genetic structure locally, whereas males would act as genetic mediators among regions. To test this, we used eight validated microsatellite markers on 1531 individuals sampled noninvasively during country-wide genetic population monitoring in Sweden and Norway from 2006 to 2013. First, we determined sex-specific genetic structure and substructure across the study area. Second, we compared genetic differentiation, migration/gene flow patterns, and spatial autocorrelation results between the sexes both within and among genetic clusters and geographic regions. Our results indicated that demographic connectivity was not a reliable indicator of genetic connectivity. Among regions, we found no consistent difference in long-term gene flow and estimated current migration rates between males and females. Within regions/genetic clusters, only females consistently displayed significant positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating male-biased small-scale dispersal. In one cluster, however, males showed a dispersal pattern similar to females. The Scandinavian brown bear population has experienced substantial recovery over the last decades; however, our results did not show any changes in its large-scale population structure compared to previous studies, suggesting that an increase in population size and dispersal of individuals does not necessary lead to increased genetic connectivity. Thus, we conclude that both genetic and demographic connectivity should be estimated, so as not to make false assumptions about the reality of wildlife populations.

Human—bear conflicts occur frequently in the Pasvik Valley, Norway. We used a variant of the hair-trapping method with higher densities of traps (2.5 × 2.5 km grid) to detect brown bears moving near human settlements and livestock. We distributed 20 hair traps for one month close to a farm with frequent observations of grazing bears. The study area consisted of one area close to the farm, and one adjacent area without settlements. We collected 85 hair samples and identified 13 different individuals by STR analysis. In the farm area, we detected 4 different males once, and a female that was detected in both areas. In comparison, nine bears (2 males and 7 females) were detected for more than one week in the area without settlements, suggesting lower roaming activity. Conclusively, hair trapping has the potential to survey bears at specific locations of importance to the wildlife management.

We present data on the species composition of helminths in brown bears (Ursus arctos) from the Murmansk Region, Russia. The absence of any information about helminths of brown bear in the region necessitated the conduct of these studies. Samples were collected in 2014 and 2015 in the southern part of the Kola Peninsula from the White Sea coastal habitats. Annually, in the study area, 1-3 bears are legally hunted and biological samples for examination are very difficult to obtain. Therefore, we used fecal samples. We studied 93 feces and identified parasite eggs identified in 43 of them by morphometric criteria. The surveys revealed eggs of the following helminths: Dicrocoelium sp., Diphyllobothrium sp., Anoplocephalidae, Capillariidae, Baylisascaris sp., Strongylida 1, and Strongylida 2. These results represent the first reconnaissance stage, which allowed characterizing the taxonomic diversity and prevalence of parasites of brown bears of the Kola Peninsula.

The number of effective breeders (N b) and effective population size (N e) are population parameters reflective of evolutionary potential, susceptibility to stochasticity, and viability. We have estimated these parameters using the linkage disequilibrium‐based approach with LDNE through the latest phase of population recovery of the brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Finland (1993–2010; N = 621). This phase of the recovery was recently documented to be associated with major changes in genetic composition. In particular, differentiation between the northern and the southern genetic cluster declined rapidly within 1.5 generations. Based on this, we have studied effects of the changing genetic structure on N b and N e, by comparing estimates for whole Finland with the estimates for the two genetic clusters. We expected a potentially strong relationship between estimate sizes and genetic differentiation, which should disappear as the population recovers and clusters merge. Consistent with this, our estimates for whole Finland were lower than the sum of the estimates of the two genetic clusters and both approaches produced similar estimates in the end. Notably, we also found that admixed genotypes strongly increased the estimates. In all analyses, our estimates for N e were larger than N b and likely reflective for brown bears of the larger region of Finland and northwestern Russia. Conclusively, we find that neglecting genetic substructure may lead to a massive underestimation of N b and N e. Our results also suggest the need for further empirical analysis focusing on individuals with admixed genotypes and their potential high influence on N b and N e.

We here describe 34 novel microsatellite loci from the brown bear (Ursus arctos) identified using a next-generation sequencing approach. While we found allelic variation in 30 of these, we selected 16 polymorphic microsatellites (11 di- and 5 tetranucleotide repeats) for four multiplex-PCR assays based on genetic variability, PCR performance and interpretability. Applying these assays for the 16 novel microsatellites, we screened 31 brown bears from a northern European population. The number of alleles encountered at single loci was between 4 and 10, and expected and observed heterozygosities ranged between 0.66–0.85 and 0.60–0.97, respectively. Seven of 120 pairwise locus combinations showed linkage disequilibrium and one locus deviated from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, while no null-alleles were detected. Our novel multiplex-PCR assays may be useful in forensics, parentage and population genetic studies.

Loss of connectivity and habitat destruction may lead to genetic depletion of wild animal populations, especially in species requiring large, connected territories as the brown bear (Ursus arctos). Brown bear populations of North Western Russia, Finland and Northern Norway have been assumed to form one large, continuous population; however this hypothesis has not been tested sufficiently. We have genotyped 1,887 samples from 2005 to 2008 from four distinct areas and used the resulting DNA profiles from 146 different individuals to analyze the genetic diversity, population structure, and the migration rates among groups. In addition, we have tested for traces of previous genetic bottlenecks. Individuals from Eastern Finland and Russian Karelia were grouped in the same cluster (“Karelia”), while distinctive subpopulations of brown bears were detected in the north (“Pasvik”), and the east (“Pinega”). All three subpopulations displayed high genetic variation, with expected heterozygosities (HE) of 0.77–0.81, but differentiation among the clusters was relatively low (average FST = 0.051, P < 0.001). No evidence of genetic bottlenecks in the past was found. We detected a highly significant isolation-by-distance (IBD) pattern. For Pasvik, self-recruitment was found to be very high (96%), pointing to the possibility of genetic isolation. In contrast, between Karelia and Pinega we detected high, bi-directional migration rates (~30%), indicating genetic exchange. Conclusively, despite of a substantial influence of IBD on the genetic structure in the region, we detected considerable variation in connectivity among the identified clusters that could not be explained solely by the distance between them.

Noninvasively collected genetic data can be used to analyse large-scale connectivity patterns among populations of large predators without disturbing them, which may contribute to unravel the species' roles in natural ecosystems and their requirements for long-term survival. The demographic history of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Northern Europe indicates several extinction and recolonization events, but little is known about present gene flow between populations of the east and west. We used 12 validated microsatellite markers to analyse 1580 hair and faecal samples collected during six consecutive years (2005-2010) in the Pasvik Valley at 70°N on the border of Norway, Finland and Russia. Our results showed an overall high correlation between the annual estimates of population size (N(c) ), density (D), effective size (N(e) ) and N(e) /N(c) ratio. Furthermore, we observed a genetic heterogeneity of ∼0.8 and high N(e) /N(c) ratios of ∼0.6, which suggests gene flow from the east. Thus, we expanded the population genetic study to include Karelia (Russia, Finland), Västerbotten (Sweden) and Troms (Norway) (477 individuals in total) and detected four distinct genetic clusters with low migration rates among the regions. More specifically, we found that differentiation was relatively low from the Pasvik Valley towards the south and east, whereas, in contrast, moderately high pairwise F(ST) values (0.91-0.12) were detected between the east and the west. Our results indicate ongoing limits to gene flow towards the west, and the existence of barriers to migration between eastern and western brown bear populations in Northern Europe.

A set of 13 dinucleotide STR loci (G1A, G10B, G1D, G10L, MU05, MU09, MU10, MU15, MU23, MU26, MU50, MU51, MU59) were selected as candidate markers for a DNA forensic profiling system for Northern European brown bear ( Ursus arctos ). We present results from validation of the markers with respect to their sensitivity, species specificity and performance (precision, heterozygote balance and stutter ratios). All STRs were amplified with 0.6ng template input, and there were no false bear genotypes in the cross-species amplification tests. The validation experiments showed that stutter ratios and heterozygote balance was more pronounced than in the tetranucleotide loci used in human forensics. The elevated ratios of stutter and heterozygote balance at the loci validated indicate that these dinucleotide STRs are not well suited for interpretation of individual genotypes in mixtures. Based on the results from the experimental validations we discuss the challenges related to genotyping dinucleotide STRs in single source samples. Sequence studies of common alleles showed that, in general, the size variation of alleles corresponded with the variation in number of repeats. The samples characterized by sequence analysis may serve as standard DNA samples for inter laboratory calibration. A total of 479 individuals from eight Northern European brown bear populations were analyzed in the 13 candidate STRs. Locus MU26 was excluded as a putative forensic marker after revealing large deviations from expected heterozygosity likely to be caused by null-alleles at this locus. The remaining STRs did not reveal significant deviations from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium expectations except for loci G10B and MU10 that showed significant deviations in one population each, respectively. There were 9 pairwise locus comparisons that showed significant deviation from linkage equilibrium in one or two out of the eight populations. Substantial genetic differentiation was detected in some of the pairwise population comparisons and the average estimate of population substructure ( F ST ) was 0.09. The average estimate of inbreeding ( F IS ) was 0.005. Accounting for population substructure and inbreeding the total average probability of identity in each of the eight populations was lower than 1.1×10 −9 and the total average probability of sibling identity was lower than 1.3×10 −4 . The magnitude of these measurements indicates that if applying these twelve STRs in a DNA profiling system this would provide individual specific evidence.

Recovery of natural populations occurs often with simultaneous or subsequent range expansions. According to population genetic theory, genetic structuring emerges at the expansion front together with decreasing genetic diversity, owing to multiple founder events. Thereupon, as the expansion proceeds and connectivity among populations is established, homogenization and a resurgence of genetic diversity are to be expected. Few studies have used a fine temporal scale combined with genetic sampling to track range expansions as they proceed in wild animal populations. As a natural experiment, the historical eradication of large terrestrial carnivores followed by their recovery and recolonization may facilitate empirical tests of these ideas. Here, using brown bear (Ursus arctos) as model species, we tested predictions from genetic theory of range expansion. Individuals from all over Finland were genotyped for every year between 1996 and 2010 using 12 validated autosomal microsatellite markers. A latitudinal shift of about 110 km was observed in the distribution and delineation of genetic clusters during this period. As the range expansion proceeded, we found, as theory predicts, that the degree of genetic structure decreased, and that both genetic variation and admixture increased. The genetic consequences of range expansions may first be detected after multiple generations, but we found major changes in genetic composition after just 1.5 generations, accompanied by population growth and increased migration. These rapid genetic changes suggest an ongoing concerted action of geographical and demographic expansion combined with substantial immigration of bears from Russia during the recovery of brown bears within the large ecosystem of northern Europe.

The development of wildlife genetics combined with non-invasive sampling might be both an economic benefit for the society and a benefit for the survival of the threatened species. The aims of this study are to develop a quality assured approach for DNA profiling of brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) in Northern Europe using material from non-invasive sampling and to generate a population database that can be used for conservation management as well as a reference database for forensic purposes. Non-invasive sampling was performed by the collection of scats in the field and by using sets of hair traps in a grid pattern in specified geographical areas. Genotypes from 12 STR loci were determined for 232 Norwegian bears. Initial analysis of the entire sample indicated a high level of substructure. Thus, the sample was divided into four geographically different populations consisting of 206 individuals for further validation of the markers. Ten STRs (G1D, G10L, Mu05, Mu09, Mu10, Mu15, Mu23, Mu50, Mu51, and Mu59) conformed to Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) expectations with only minor deviations, while the remaining two STR loci (Mu26 and G10B) were excluded from our set of putative forensic profiling system markers after revealing significant deviations from HWE in all four sub-populations. The average estimate of population substructure for Norwegian bears using 10 STRs ( F ST ) was determined to be 0.1, while the estimate for inbreeding ( F IS ) was −0.02. Accounting for the F ST -value, the average probability of identity (PI ave ) was 5.67×10 −10 and the average probability of sibling identity (PI sib ) was 1.68×10 −4 . In Norway, this brown bear DNA profiling system has been applied to forensic casework.