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The European Union's Natura 2000 (N2000) is among the largest international networks of protected areas. One of its aims is to secure the status of a predetermined set of (targeted) bird and butterfly species. However, nontarget species may also benefit from N2000. We evaluated how the terrestrial component of this network affects the abundance of nontargeted, more common bird and butterfly species based on data from long-term volunteer-based monitoring programs in 9602 sites for birds and 2001 sites for butterflies. In almost half of the 155 bird species assessed, and particularly among woodland specialists, abundance increased (slope estimates ranged from 0.101 [SD 0.042] to 3.51 [SD 1.30]) as the proportion of landscape covered by N2000 sites increased. This positive relationship existed for 27 of the 104 butterfly species (estimates ranged from 0.382 [SD 0.163] to 4.28 [SD 0.768]), although most butterflies were generalists. For most species, when land-cover covariates were accounted for these positive relationships were not evident, meaning land cover may be a determinant of positive effects of the N2000 network. The increase in abundance as N2000 coverage increased correlated with the specialization index for birds, but not for butterflies. Although the N2000 network supports high abundance of a large spectrum of species, the low number of specialist butterflies with a positive association with the N2000 network shows the need to improve the habitat quality of N2000 sites that could harbor open-land butterfly specialists. For a better understanding of the processes involved, we advocate for standardized collection of data at N2000 sites.Efectos de Natura 2000 sobre las Especies No Focales de Aves y Mariposas con Base en Datos de Ciencia Ciudadana Resumen La red Natura 2000 (N2000) de la Unión Europea está entre las redes internacionales más grandes de áreas protegidas. Uno de sus objetivos es asegurar el estado de un conjunto predeterminado de especies de aves y mariposas (focales). Sin embargo, las especies no focales también pueden beneficiarse con la N2000. Evaluamos cómo el componente terrestre de esta red afecta la abundancia de las especies de aves y mariposas no focales más comunes con base en los datos de programas de monitoreo voluntario a largo plazo en 9,602 sitios para aves y en 2,001 sitios para mariposas. En casi la mitad de las 155 especies de aves evaluadas, particularmente entre aquellas especies especialistas en zonas boscosas, la abundancia incrementó (los estimaciones de la pendiente variaron desde 0.101 [DS 0.042] hasta 3.51 [DS 1.30]) conforme incrementó la proporción del paisaje cubierto por sitios de la N2000. Esta relación positiva existió en 27 de las 104 especies de mariposas (con una variación de estimaciones desde 0.382 [DS 0.163] hasta 4.28 [DS 0.768]), aunque la mayoría de las especies de mariposas fueron generalistas. Cuando se consideraron las covarianzas de cobertura de suelo estas relaciones positivas no fueron evidentes para la mayoría de las especies, lo que significa que la cobertura de suelo puede ser una determinante de los efectos positivos de la red N2000. El incremento en la abundancia conforme aumentó la cobertura de la N2000 estuvo correlacionado con el índice de especialización de las aves, pero no el de las mariposas. Aunque la red N2000 sostiene la abundancia alta de un espectro amplio de especies, el bajo número de mariposas especialistas con una asociación positiva a la red N2000 demuestra la necesidad de mejorar la calidad del hábitat de los sitios N2000 que podrían albergar a mariposas especialistas de campo abierto. Para un mejor entendimiento de los procesos involucrados, promovemos una recolección estandarizada de datos en los sitios de la red N2000.欧盟的 Natura 2000(N2000) 是全球最大的保护地网络之一, 它的目标之一是保护一批目标鸟类和蝴蝶物种的现状。不过, 非目标物种也可能从 N2000 中获益。本研究评估了该网络陆地保护区如何影响更为常见的非目标鸟类和蝴蝶的丰度, 所用数据来自长期的志愿者监测项目, 包括了 9602 个鸟类监测点和 2001 个蝴蝶监测点。在评估的 155 种鸟类中, 几乎一半的鸟类, 特别是林地专性种, 在 N2000 位点覆盖的景观比例上升时数量增加 (斜率估计值在 0.101 [SD 0.042] 到3.51 [SD 1.30] 之间) 。虽然大多数蝴蝶都是广幅种, 但 104 种蝴蝶中也有 27 种存在这种正相关关系 (斜率估计值在 0.382 [SD 0.163] 到 4.28 [SD 0.768]) 。对于大多数物种来说, 当考虑土地覆盖协变量时, 这样的正相关关系并不明显, 这意味着土地覆盖可能是 N2000 网络能否对物种产生积极影响的关键因素。物种的丰度随着 N2000 覆盖度增加而增加的现象与鸟类的生境特化指数相关, 而在蝴蝶中则无关。虽然 N2000 网络使许多物种得以维持较高丰度, 但获得其积极影响的蝴蝶专性种数量仍较少, 这说明需要在 N2000 网络中提高专性生活在开阔地的蝴蝶的生境质量。为了更好地理解其中的过程, 我们建议收集更多标准化的 N2000 位点数据。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

Trait-based analyses explaining the different responses of species and communities to environmental changes are increasing in frequency. European butterflies are an indicator group that responds rapidly to environmental changes with extensive citizen science contributions to documenting changes of abundance and distribution. Species traits have been used to explain long- and short-term responses to climate, land-use and vegetation changes. Studies are often characterised by limited trait sets being used, with risks that the relative roles of different traits are not fully explored. Butterfly trait information is dispersed amongst various sources and descriptions sometimes differ between sources. We have therefore drawn together multiple information sets to provide a comprehensive trait database covering 542 taxa and 25 traits described by 217 variables and sub-states of the butterflies of Europe and Maghreb (northwest Africa) which should serve for improved trait-based ecological, conservation-related, phylogeographic and evolutionary studies of this group of insects. We provide this data in two forms; the basic data and as processed continuous and multinomial data, to enhance its potential usage., Measurement(s) resources • Egg Laying • larval environment • pupal environment • geographic location • behavior • size • voltinism • phenology • host plant Technology Type(s) digital curation Factor Type(s) species Sample Characteristic - Organism Papilionoidea Sample Characteristic - Location Europe • Northwest Africa Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12998828

Transect counts are one of the most popular approaches to assess and monitor butterfly diversity, especially with the background of biodiversity loss. This method was developed in Europe, but its transferability is seldom tested across the world. To assess transferability, we compared butterfly richness estimates based on transect counts in Spain, Germany and central China, a region with a considerably different biogeographic history and more diverse butterfly fauna compared to Europe. We found that the efficiency of transect counts was much lower in China than in the other two regions. Apart from the fact that traditional transect counts may undersample canopy species which are predominant in central China, higher efficiency in Europe may be primarily attributed to different patterns of butterfly richness likely caused by different biogeographic and anthropogenic land-use history. Our results highlight that great caution is needed when transect count methods are transferred to other regions of the world, especially to particularly species rich areas with a high number of rare species. Low detectability of certain species can substantially mask species richness estimates, and we suggest to carefully adapt sampling effort and perhaps combine transect counts with other methods to ensure more realistic assessment of species richness in such regions.

Insect conservation needs sound information on species distribution trends. Developing this evidence relies—in practice—on long-term engagement of volunteers who observe and record species over large spatial and temporal scales. Many biodiversity monitoring schemes, including those for insects, are highly dependent on conservation-based citizen science programs with a long-term continuity. As these schemes are built entirely on good will, the nature of social relations and networks is pivotal to success. We assess the working mechanism of a monitoring scheme that is citizen-based as a case study. The German Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (hereafter TMD for “Tagfalter-Monitoring Deutschland”) operates, as many other citizen science monitoring schemes, through an overarching national network of regional subnetworks of volunteers and a central scientific coordination. Using a questionnaire survey paired with a visual social network assessment, we investigate how participants interact within these networks and assess their motivations to engage. We characterise the functionality of this social network based on mechanism of coordination and participation, flows of information and knowledge exchange among recorders, regional and central coordinators, academic scientists and institutions. By analyzing the interactions, we show how the social network facilitates and ensures various communication modes and thereby fosters long-term engagement, stability and growth of the scheme. We identify the central role of project coordination and the importance of social relations within citizen-based monitoring programs for engagement and personal satisfaction. Based on our empirical study, we derive a set of recommendations for establishing and maintaining successful volunteer networks in insect citizen-based monitoring programs.

Responses of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) to climate change remain mostly unexplored. Here, for the first time, we investigate the impact of climate change on both presence/absence and abundances of hoverfly species. We used generalized linear models to analyse the relationships of climatic and soil variables with the occurrence and abundance of Cheilosia species on the Balkan Peninsula. Our results show that the ranges of all and the abundances of many species are projected to decrease in the future. Climatically suitable conditions for mountainous species are predicted to generally shift northwards. Species adapted to high mountains are projected to almost vanish from the Balkans and only regions of the Alps would remain suitable for them. We found climatic variables were more important in determining abundance than occurrence. Given that environmental factors differed in terms of their impact on abundance and occurrence, we highlight the importance of monitoring both parameters to ensure effective conservation. Considering the different projected responses of hoverflies to future climate change, as well as their value as pollinators and the increasing threats they currently face, knowledge on their responses to the major drivers of their life-histories is indispensable for proper management and conservation action. We reveal that nationally-designated protected areas are insufficient to conserve the species considered here, both currently and under projected climate change. We recommend implementation of an integrated conservation management plan that can provide a continuum of protected areas along the Dinaric mountain chain to facilitate movement of species to enhance species survival.

The occurrence of the Dusky Large Blue Butterfly (Maculinea nausithous) critically depends on the availability of two key resources: the Great Burnet (Sanguisorba officinalis) as primary nectar source for adults, for egg laying and early larval development, and the host ant Myrmica rubra as the food of late instar larvae. Thus, their distributions are key parameters shaping habitat suitability, and we expected that overlapping of both resources would have a strong impact on the size of local M. nausithous populations. Their egg density may be affected (a) by the fraction of host plants per site located within My. rubra activity ranges at the patch scale, or (b) by the availability of host plants with host ants in close range at the local scale, due to the potential ability of butterfly females to detect their host ants. To test the above hypothesis, we recorded spatial distribution patterns of host plants and host ants on 29 study sites in south-western Germany and related them to egg density data of M. nausithous. We found a positive relationship between co-occurence of host plant and host ant and M. nausithous egg density at the patch scale, whereas no correlation was found at the local scale. Thus, focal populations are strongly limited by the abundance of host plants, covered with My. rubra activity, as ant-mediated oviposition could not be proved. Our results underline the importance of resource distribution; the understanding of its impacts may provide useful insights into how M. nausithous habitats can be managed in order increase their carrying capacity.

Succession is a key ecological process that supports our understanding of community assembly and biotic interactions. Dispersal potential and dispersal strategies, such as wind- or animal-dispersal, have been assumed to be highly relevant for the success of plant species during succession. However, research yielded varying results on changes in dispersal modes between successional stages. Here, we test the hypotheses that (a) vascular plant species that use a number of dispersal modes dominate in early stages of succession while species specialized on one/few dispersal modes increase in abundance towards later stages of succession; (b) species well adapted to wind-dispersal (anemochory) will peak in abundance in early successional stages and (c) species well adapted to adhesive dispersal (epizoochory) will increase with proceeding succession. We test these hypotheses in four sites within agriculturally dominated landscapes in Germany. Agricultural use in these sites was abandoned 20–28 years ago, leaving them to secondary succession. Sites have been monitored for plant biodiversity ever since. We analyze changes in plant species richness and abundance, number of dispersal modes and two ranking indices for wind- and adhesive dispersal by applying generalized linear mixed-effect models. We used both abundance-weighted and unweighted dispersal traits in order to gain a comprehensive picture of successional developments. Hypothesis (a) was supported by unweighted but not abundance-weighted data. Anemochory showed no consistent changes across sites. In contrast, epizoochory (especially when not weighted by abundance) turned out to be an indicator of the transition from early to mid-successional stages. It increased for the first 9–16 years of succession but declined afterwards. Species richness showed an opposing pattern, while species abundance increased asymptotically. We suggest that plant-animal interactions play a key role in mediating these processes: By importing seeds of highly competitive plant species, animals are likely to promote the increasing abundance of a few dominant, highly epizoochorous species. These species outcompete weak competitors and species richness decreases. However, animals should as well promote the subsequent increase of species richness by disturbing the sites and creating small open patches. These patches are colonized by weaker competitors that are not necessarily dispersed by animals. The changes in the presence of epizoochorous species indicate the importance of plant traits and related plant–animal interactions in the succession of plant communities.

Aim Conventional species distribution models (SDMs) usually focus on the species level but disregard intraspecific variability. Phylogeographic structure and evolutionary significant units (ESU) have been proposed as pragmatic proxies to incorporate intraspecific differentiation in SDMs. Nevertheless, the efficiency of using these proxies in SDMs has been poorly investigated. We analysed how the projections of current and future climatically suitable areas can be affected when using ESU‐based or lineage‐based models compared to a species‐level model.[br/] Location West‐Palaearctic region.[br/] Methods As examples, we used three bumblebee species (133,787 observations). We assessed potential climatic niche differentiation between species level, lineages and ESUs, by determining the niche position and niche breadth for each classification level by outlying mean index analyses. Subsequently, we developed SDMs for each species and classification level separately using boosted regression trees prior to a comparison of their performances. Finally, we used the alternative models to project the extent of climatically suitable areas in 2070.[br/] Results We found that in spite of highly similar overall model accuracy, integrating intraspecific variability significantly increases model sensitivity (i.e., better predicting presences) while decreased model specificity (i.e., over‐predicting the range). Consequently, both predictions of current and projections of future suitable conditions differed among the three approaches.[br/] Main conclusions We showed that although integrating lineage or ESU information did not improve the accuracy of conventional species‐level SDMs, it led to considerably different conclusions. As SDM‐based climatic risk assessments are increasingly used to help and improve conservation plans, divergences and limitations of each modelling approach should be taken into account for developing efficient biodiversity management strategies. Lineage and ESU‐based SDMs offer the advantage to draw attention to species in which allopatric populations could display physiologically different responses to climate change when they lead to different results than species‐based models.

LEGATO stands for “Land-use intensity and Ecological EnGineering—Assessment Tools for risks and Opportunities in irrigated rice based production systems.”

Aim Niche‐based models often ignore spatial variation in the climatic niche of a species across its occupied range and the related variation in the response to changing climate conditions. This assumption may lead to inaccurate predictions of species distribution shifts under climate change. Models have been developed to address this issue, but most of them depend upon prior knowledge on evolutionary lineages, phenotypic traits or ecological processes underlying local adaptation or adaptive plasticity. As such information is often lacking, these models are not frequently used to predict distribution shifts for many species. This limits our ability to explore general patterns of change across species. Innovation Here, we propose a modelling framework that can be applied across a large sample of species to assess their distribution shifts under future climate while exploring the effect of intraspecific spatial variation in the response to climate conditions. The proposed approach does not require a detailed understanding of the processes underlying such variation. The geographical distribution of a species is split into spatial subsets along the gradient of occupied climate conditions. These subsets are considered as proxies for intraspecific spatial niche variation. Local models are built with each subset and their predictions are assembled across the study area under different dispersal assumptions. Using European butterflies as an example, we show that this approach can be used to explore the uncertainty about predicted distribution shifts arising from intraspecific spatial variation in sensitivity and response to changing climate conditions. Main conclusions Our modelling approach is not intended to replace advanced modelling methods based on species‐specific knowledge of ecological and evolutionary processes, but it is useful as an exploratory tool to detect species for which detailed information on intraspecific responses to climate conditions is likely to make a difference for prediction of future distribution shifts. Framework Programme FP6 of the European Commission, Grant/Award Number: GOCE-CT-2003-506675; FP7 Environment, Grant/Award Number: 308454; Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles, Grant/Award Number: ARC-grant 17/22-086; Fonds National de la Recherche Luxembourg, Grant/Award Number: FNR-AFR PHD-09-121

The Irano‐Turanian (IT) floristic region is considered an important center of origin for many taxa. However, there is a lack of studies dealing with typical IT genera that also occur in neighboring areas. The species‐rich monocot genus Gagea Salisb. shows a center of diversity in IT region and a distribution in adjacent regions, therefore representing a good study object to investigate spatial and temporal relationships among IT region and its neighboring areas (East Asia, Euro‐Siberia, Himalaya, and Mediterranean). We aimed at (a) testing the origin of the genus and of its major lineages in the IT region, (b) reconstructing divergence times, and (c) reconstructing colonization events. To address these problems, sequences of the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of 418 individuals and chloroplast intergenic spacers sequences (psbA‐trnH, trnL‐trnF) of 497 individuals, representing 116 species from all sections of the genus and nearly its entire distribution area were analyzed. Divergence times were estimated under a random molecular clock based on nrITS phylogeny, which was the most complete data set regarding the representation of species and distribution areas. Ancestral distribution ranges were estimated for the nrITS data set as well as for a combined data set, revealing that Gagea most likely originated in southwestern Asia. This genus first diversified there starting in the Early Miocene. In the Middle Miocene, Gagea migrated to the Mediterranean and to East Asia, while migration into Euro‐Siberia took place in the Late Miocene. During the Pleistocene, the Arctic was colonized and Gagea serotina, the most widespread species, reached North America. The Mediterranean basin was colonized multiple times from southwestern Asia or Euro‐Siberia. Most of the currently existing species originated during the last 3 Ma.

International trade of species facilitates the establishment of nonnative organisms. Highlighting areas potentially suitable for invasive species (risk areas) allows for effective importation regulations to prevent the spread of and the potential damage caused by such species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict risk areas but they usually disregard intraspe-cific differentiation and corresponding differences in climatic requirements. We used Bombus terrestris as an example of a commonly traded species and developed SDMs at the species-and subspecies-level to assess the value of subspecific information for risk area predictions. We show that species-level models are less efficient than subspecies-based SDMs and that risk areas differ considerably between subspecies. Therefore, the invasive potential of a species can depend on the subspecies imported and the particular climatic condition of the target area. This paves the way to novel policy-relevant guidelines to legislate for smart regulations instead of complete import interdictions.

gricultural landscapes and ecosystem services in South-East sia—the LEGATO-Project osef Settelea,b,∗, Joachim H. Spangenberga,c, Kong Luen Heongd,q, enjamin Burkharde,f, Jesus Victor Bustamanteg, Jimmy Cabbigatg, o Van Chienh, Monina Escaladai, Volker Greschoa,j, Le Huu Haik, lexander Harpkea, Finbarr G. Horgand, Stefan Hotesl, Reinhold Jahnm, ngolf Kuhna,b, Leonardo Marquezn, Martin Schadlera,b, Vera Tekkeno, oris Vetterleina, Sylvia “Bong” Villareald, Catrin Westphalp, Martin Wiemersa

Bumble bees represent one of the most important groups of pollinators. In addition to their ecological and economic relevance , they are also a highly charismatic group which can help to increase the interest of people in realizing, enjoying and conserving natural systems. However, like most animals, bum-ble bees are sensitive to climate. In this atlas, maps depicting potential risks of climate change for bumble bees are shown together with informative summary statistics, ecological background information and a picture of each European species. Thanks to the EU FP7 project STEP, the authors gathered over one million bumblebee records from all over Europe. Based on these data, they modelled the current climatic niche for almost all European species (56 species) and projected future climatically suitable conditions using three climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. While under a moderate change scenario only 3 species are projected to be at the verge of extinction by 2100, 14 species are at high risk under an intermediate change scenario. Under a most severe change scenario as many as 25 species are projected to lose almost all of their climatically suitable area, while a total of 53 species (77% of the 69 European species) would lose the main part of their suitable area. Climatic risks for bumblebees can be extremely high, depending on the future development of human society, and the corresponding effects on the climate. Strong mitigation strategies are needed to preserve this important species group and to ensure the sustainable provision of pollination services, to which they considerably contribute. On the front cover: Bombus hyperboreus, an Arctic bumblebee species that is threatened by global warming

This article provides an overview about the Bode River catchment that was selected as the hydrological observatory and main region for hydro-ecological research within the TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories Harz/Central German Lowland Observatory. It first provides information about the general characteristics of the catchment including climate, geology, soils, land use, water quality and aquatic ecology, followed by the description of the interdisciplinary research framework and the monitoring concept with the main components of the multi-scale and multi-temporal monitoring infrastructure. It also shows examples of interdisciplinary research projects aiming to advance the understanding of complex hydrological processes under natural and anthropogenic forcings and their interactions in a catchment context. The overview is complemented with research work conducted at a number of intensive research sites, each focusing on a particular functional zone or specific components and processes of the hydro-ecological system.

The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial.Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Aim We investigate the importance of interacting species for current and potential future species distributions, the influence of their ecological characteristics on projected range shifts when considering or ignoring interacting species, and the consistency of observed relationships across different global change scenarios.

International audience; In the Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies by Settele et al. (2008) some errors occurred for which we apologize and herewith present the corrections.

In 2005 a nationwide monitoring scheme for butterflies (and diurnal moths) was launched in Germany. Coordinated by the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, it started as an integral part of the public relations campaign "Abenteuer Schmetterling" (Adventure Butterfly) with German public television and an environmental NGO as partners. The core objectives of the monitoring scheme are (a) to provide a central element for the analysis of biodiversity and (b) to investigate and develop the role of butterflies as indicators for the state of biodiversity. Both are aims at a regional, national, and European scale. After three years of monitoring (2005-2007), first results and experiences are presented. We show that the use of multiple media (TV, internet, community-level activities) yielded high responsiveness from the public and high recruitment of volunteers. We further show that the quality of data is likely to qualify for scientific analyses of abundances and phenology and therefore possibly for t...

Aim: Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data are available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar. Location: Europe. Methods: The distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale (continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in species richness. Results: In Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale models. In Belgium/Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a larger decrease in richness than broad-scale models. In Spain, both models projected a slight decrease in richness. We obtained similar projections based on restricted-scale and broad-scale models only in Spain because the climatic conditions available here covered the warm part of the distributions of butterflies better than in Finland and Belgium/Netherlands. Main conclusions: Restricted-scale models that fail to capture the warm part of species distributions produce biased estimates of future changes in species richness when projected under climatic conditions with no modern analogue in the study area. We recommend the use of distribution data beyond the boundaries of the study area to capture the part of the species response curves reflecting the climatic conditions that will prevail within that area in the future.

The overarching aim of the atlas is to communicate the potential risks of climatic change to the future of European butterflies. The main objectives are to: (1) provide a visual aid to discussions on climate change risks and impacts on biodiversity and thus contribute to risk communication as a core element of risk assessment; (2) present crucial data on a large group of species which could help to prioritise conservation efforts in the face of climatic change; (3) reach a broader audience through the combination of new scientific results with photographs of all treated species and some straight forward information about the species and their ecology. The results of this atlas show that climate change is likely to have a profound effect on European butterflies. Ways to mitigate some of the negative impacts are to (1) maintain large populations in diverse habitats; (2) encourage mobility across the landscape; (3) reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses; (4) allow maximum time for species adaptation; (4) conduct further research on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity. The book is a result of long-term research of a large international team of scientists, working at research institutes and non-governmental organizations, many within the framework of projects funded by the European Commission.