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Over the past thirty years, the company and its environment have been the subject of lively academic discussion by several major global schools: the study of national innovation systems, and of the emergence, development and diffusion of innovation; research that analyzes value chains; institutional theory; ecosystem approach; strategic management; forecasting; planning; and foresight to assess current corporate processes and future transformations. The research landscape is still highly fragmented and characterized by several extensive gaps related to an integrated approach to the study of the company, taking into account the global trends, incentives and patterns of behavior of the key stakeholders. The paper presents the results of the research uniting different theoretical approaches on the platform of foresight: a two-loop integral ecosystem model is proposed which takes into account the influence of global trends on internal and external stakeholders of a company, including the empirical survey of more than 260 Russian companies in 2021. A set of practical recommendations for using modern foresight instruments to form, manage and transform the company ecosystem is given. A forecast of possible directions of development is made.

The paper aims to develop and apply a methodological approach that could help to reveal incentives and future strategies of key National Innovation System (NIS) players considering the influence of global social, economic, scientific, technological and ecological trends. To fulfil this aim, a blended foresight methodology was applied, grounded on the platform of economic and classic foresight theory and considering four possible directions for using foresight methods: investigating and building a common vision; supporting evidence-based decisions; promoting communication and participation; inducing transformation and integration into the decision-making process. The main results and findings of the research include a list of 19 global trends, defined from literature analysis and the author’s expert knowledge, a short description of their influence on key NIS players, including society, business, infrastructure and institutions, science, education and government; and mapping more than 35 different foresight methods that could be used for revealing incentives and future strategies of key NIS players. The article’s theoretical contribution to economic theory consists of several parts. First, a NIS conception is examined through the prism of global trends and a dynamic aspect, whereas it is mostly investigated from statistical and static perspectives. Second, applying foresight as an instrument for researching NIS as a system is a developing academic area with some theoretical gaps, considered in this article by designing a conceptional research framework. Third, blending different foresight methods is always a craft, and the approach applied in this article contributes to it. Finally, the article presents several important trends which will appear in NIS and its key players’ transformation in the nearest 5–10 years. From practical implications, this article could be useful for proactive policymakers in the field of science, technology and innovation policy at national and regional levels for designing and providing measures for supporting innovation systems effectively. Foresight practitioners and experts are offered useful, practical ideas of different foresight methods and their possible combinations for everyday activities.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the recent Russian Science and Technology Foresight – a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology (S&T) development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation’s competitive advantages. It was organised as a complex project involving dozens of organizations performing particular tasks under the overall coordination by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and more than 2,000 experts in various S&T fields. Design/methodology/approach Its methodology embraced a set of qualitative and quantitative methods and combined technology push and market pool approaches. For seven S&T areas (information and communication technologies, biotechnologies, medicine and health, new materials and nanotechnologies, rational use of nature, transportation and space systems, energy efficiency and energy saving), the following types of results have been obtained: global trends, national challenges and windows of opportunities; new markets and niches; innovation products and services; prospective technologies and R&D fields (50 thematic groups, over 1,000 items for all areas); assessment of the country’s positions vis-à-vis global leaders; recommendations for S&T and innovation policies. Findings The paper covers prospective drivers of economic growth and relevant implications for anticipatory evidence-based policy; discussions of national challenges and building a common vision of the future among key stakeholders; the role of Foresight in particular as a communication platform that helps integrating stakeholder interests; strengthening existing and developing new capacities to increase national competitiveness; and to move up along existing and emerging global value chains. Originality/value The Russian S&T Foresight, being deeply integrated in the national policy, can be considered as an exemplar tool for “wiring up” the national innovation system (NIS) of an emerging economy with its specific features and problems facing large-scale challenges.

Purpose Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape. Design/methodology/approach The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia. Findings The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility. Practical implications The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate. Originality/value A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study.

Purpose This study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on Russia. As the trends are validated, an algorithm is proposed to assess the contribution of separate trends to Russian energy exports. Findings Experimental quantitative scenarios are conducted to assess the prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040 under the given exogenous scenario calculations of the IEA. Factor analysis allows for an assessment of the contribution of separate factors in dynamics of net energy imports into the regional economies. The future prospects for fossil fuels’ exports on regional markets are considered. Priority markets for Russian energy exporters are identified. Practical implications The results of the paper may be used by decision-makers for adjustments in the system of government policy or corporate strategy. Originality/value The paper provides an algorithm to assess energy export flows to macroregions based upon the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative information. Experimental scenario calculations of the Russian fossil fuels’ exports are provided. Strategic decision-making map is elaborated.

Purpose This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system. Design/methodology/approach To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of experience in performing foresight exercises for Russian policy makers of their institution. Findings Thereby, the paper highlights the implications arising from the interaction between sectoral and national components of TFS and on application of the results of foresight studies (implemented within the framework of TFS) for the strategic planning. Originality/value Russia has a long history of technological planning and forecasting and engages regularly in extensive foresight activities of both national and sectoral relevance. Also, Russia’s leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of such foresight activities which are outlined by a national law since 2014.

This paper reports on the result of a major foresight exercise commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation on the prospective developments of the agriculture and food industry up to the year 2030. The exercise identified economic, technological, social and ecological trends that will greatly influence both supply and demand in the industry. The findings provide a decision base for policy-makers to improve the technology base and to ease the reliance on technology imports. The country’s agricultural producers have been struggling with the introduction of new technologies, and customers are showing conservative demand patterns. Previous research showed that technology transfer into Russian agricultural enterprises suffers from a low knowledge level especially in receiving organizations. The country’s own S&T system requires support both for technology development and technology transfer, especially for breeding of best-suited plants and animals for local circumstances. Furt...

A key element of any government's Science, Technology and Innovation policy is stable analytical infrastructure to support strategic decision making. Experience from many countries shows that substantial policy decision making requires collecting and analysing a broad range of information to develop proactive and future-oriented policies. Accordingly, infrastructure providing this information as well as evidence for policy-making must possess the capabilities for collecting, assessing, and processing information. However, information in this context is highly specific and subject related information, which is frequently embodied within expert knowledge holders. Therefore, information management in this light imposes special challenges on infrastructure. The present study discusses some methodological approaches and practical studies to set up a network of STI Foresight network in Russia, integrated into the national Foresight and planning system. We outline the principles for goal setting, network architecture, creating a network of experts, selecting key information products, and methodological support. Russia's STI Foresight network, built on principles presented here, has been fully operational since 2011 and provides expertise on a large scale for a variety of governmental and industry organizations.

Rapid changes in Science & Technology (S&T) along with breakthroughs in products and services concern a great deal of policy and strategy makers and lead to an ever increasing number of Foresight and other types of forward-looking work. At the outset, the purpose of these efforts is to investigate emerging S&T areas, set priorities and inform policies and strategies. However, there is still no clear evidence on the mutual linkage between science and strategy, which may be attributed to Foresight and S&T policy making activities. The present paper attempts to test the hypothesis that both science and strategy affect each other and this linkage can be investigated quantitatively. The evidence for the mutual attribution of science and strategy is built on a quantitative trend monitoring process drawing on semantic analysis of large amount of textual data and text mining tools. Based on the proposed methodology the similarities between science and strategy documents along with the overlaps between them across a certain period of time are calculated using the case of the Agriculture and Food sector, and thus the linkages between science and strategy are investigated.

The goal of this research is to add to the existing corpus of knowledge concerning particular green finance instrument - green bonds. It tries to answer some questions relevant for both scholars and business in order to reinforce the development of green bonds market. One of these questions is whether green bonds issuance cause positive market reaction. Resent activities in global agenda, starting from United Nations Sustainable Goals released in 2015 and endings huge public attention for green issues in 2019 impose additional burden on companies’ competitiveness. Our major hypothesis is that ecological factors affect investors’ decisions whose portfolios and investment declarations are getting to be more aligned with global ecological agenda. The green bonds issuance provide a signal for investors that the issuing firm is involved in sustainable development and hence its stock may be included in the portfolio. The study discovers the significance of the “green” label for the stock market reaction. Alongside, it studies some other features of green bonds, fostering their evolvement and justifying their costs for issuers.

Under the transition to a market economy Russian science, technology and innovation (STI) has changed dramatically. After the crisis of late 1990s, the government declared science and technology (S&T) as one of national priorities and started increasingly investing in this sector but it has not led to the tangible output like a bigger volume of high-tech exports or a higher share of international publications. A number of policy instruments have been introduced to increase the efficiency of STI policies. One of them is S&T Foresight. The activities aimed at identification of national S&T priorities and series of Foresight studies have helped to understand which areas are most promising for sustaining existing competitive advantages and building new ones via gradual shift from the resource-based economy towards the technology-oriented one. The paper presents the design and organisation of a large-scale Russian S&T Foresight exercise as a fully-fledged instrument of the national STI policy and discusses the achieved results and their use for policies at different levels.

We present a new approach to technology road mapping (TR) which allows one to assess interactions of technologies and markets. Unlike the traditional methodology of TR that mostly relies on qualitative techniques, the proposed approach combines qualitative and quantitative methods. This bottom-up economic model allows the aggregation of estimates on different levels from the product group to industry used to quantify the market development. The KLEMS (capital, labor, energy, materials and services) production factors and multifactor productivity embedded in the model play the role of parameters measuring interactions between market outputs and technology innovation according to market-pull and technology-push effects. The qualitative methods include: STEEPV trend identification, 2 × 2 scenario analysis, and expert procedures. This allows for decreasing the number of parameters, inputs and calculations in the economic model. At the same time, balance between qualitative and quantitative techniques provide more realistic estimates for technological and market parameters. The assessment of interactions between technologies and markets is illustrated using the case of civil aircraft manufacturing in Russia. Technology impact is measured in terms of output growth of the industry.

Environmental management, technologies, products and services are commonly expected to provide significant economic opportunities for companies and countries. This is mainly due to increasing awareness among politicians, academics and the wider population on the importance of environmental aspects in daily life. Consequently demand for environmentally friendly solutions is expected to grow continuously in the next decade. The present study is part of a broader research project which examines the long-term science and technology (S&T) agenda in Russia up to 2030. The project's results were approved by the Prime Minister of Russia in early January 2014. Researchers from the National Research University Higher School of Economics carried out the research project at the request of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science between 2011 and 2013. The research comprised six interrelated spheres: ICT; biotechnology, medicine and public health; new materials and nanotechnologies; environmental management; transport and space systems; and energy efficiency and energy conservation. For each sphere, the project explored in-depth the global emergent challenges and opportunities, the risks, and their degree of influence on Russia. The authors analysed the most important potential market niches, products and services that are capable of radically shaping world markets and highlighted their competitive advantages. Within the framework of these priority science areas authors emphasised several spheres of particular potential value and compared the level of research carried out in Russia and the leading countries. The current paper also covers the analyses the natural resources sector made within a project aimed at integration of national and sectoral S&T Foresight studies funded by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science. Findings show that the potential applications for environmental products and services are manifold. The study is based on a thorough analysis of expert opinions and their assessment of future applications and the development of demand for these applications. However the authors note that the expert opinions included in the assessment of prospective products, services and markets, despite being based on rigorous assessment, still reflect expectations. Their opinions incorporate a degree of uncertainty especially with regard to how and when (or whether) the markets, technologies, products and services will develop in the expected ways.

Alexander Giglavy - Deputy Director for Science, Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies). Address: Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies), 16 Lomonosovsky av., Moscow, 119296, Russian Federation. E-mail: giglavy@yandex.ru Alexander Sokolov - Deputy Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, and Director, International Research and Educational Foresight Center, National Research University - Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University - Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: sokolov@hse.ruGulnara Abdrakhmanova - Director, Centre for Statistics and Monitoring of Information Society, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University - Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University - Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: gabdrakhmanova@hse.ruAlexander Chulok - Head, Division for S&T Foresight, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University - Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University - Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: achulok@hse.ruVasily Burov - Chairman of the Board, WikiVote! Address: office 2, 7 bld. 1, Fadeeva str., Moscow, 125047, Russian Federation. E-mail: burov@wikivote.ruInformation and communication technologies (ICT) radically transform many areas of human activity thus attracting great attention of researchers. However, the dynamics of ICT development depends on the global challenges and broader trends that define long-term S&T priorities. What factors that will influence the future of the ICT industry? What technological solutions will determine its characteristics in the next 15-20 years? These and similar questions were considered by the HSE ISSEK specialists in co-operation with the colleagues from other research entities while investigating trends in S&T at the global and national levels. The experts have analyzed socio-economic and S&T challenges affecting the ICT sector, advanced R&D fields, markets for innovative products and services, estimated the «windows of opportunities» for Russia. As a result, the strategic directions of blueprint research which ensure the basis for the creation of innovative products and new markets for the medium- and long-term (beyond 2020) perspective. Foresight results have been validated by the representatives of leading companies, research centers, universities and international organizations.Among the solutions expected in the period up to 2030 are the prototypes of systems implementing the new computing principles and multi-language software for extraction and formalization of knowledge, technologies dealing with «big data», new analytical tools (personal analytic systems, means of the real time data processing, mobile analytics, etc.). Markets for novel technology solutions are expected to be rapidly growing in healthcare, energy, engineering and transport, as well as in personal usage of ICT products and services.The study allows to conclude that in the medium to long term, the ICT sector will retain a high growth dynamic and will have transformative impact on virtually all areas of human life. The life cycle of technologies, related products and services will shorten. In this context, R&D development plays a crucial role for keeping up with competitors. Russian science has a certain potential in much of the considered areas, although one can hardly perceive Russia as gaining global leadership. A breakthrough level of research is observed, for example, in telecommunication technologies (communication, networking and content distribution).

Foresight has become a widely used instrument for detecting challenges and opportunities countries are likely to face in the foreseeable future. Over the last decades it has developed from purely technology foresight towards a broader spectrum of themes covered including those related to societal and economic issues. This development in accordance with changing economic and technological frameworks imposes new challenges on national science, technology and innovation (STI) policies which need to find near time responses to anticipated changes. National science and technology (S&T) foresight systems are aimed at preparing evidence based anticipatory STI policy mixes, which enable countries to meeting future challenges. Such systems need to be flexible and well structured, include ongoing methodological progress and strongly support communication of a vast variety of stakeholders.

This paper reviews national features in the general evolution of science and technology (S&T) foresight over the last decade. Foresight has made a transition from thematic papers and policy briefs to a complex set of methods integrated in the framework of S&T and innovation policy making. Foresight also addresses broad social and economic issues along with conventional S&T problems. It focuses often on interdisciplinary fields and cross-sector problems. It has witnessed the introduction of such new methods as weak signals and wild cards, and it has benefited from the integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Russian S&T foresight follows global trends. It has given support for revisions of the national S&T priorities and critical technologies. In 2007-2010, two cycles of the National S&T Foresight (initiated by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation) were completed. They resulted in the creation of frameworks and expert networks for future studies. Foresight culture has been finding deeper roots in Russia. The paper addresses mainly the key features of the third (ongoing) cycle of the national S&T Foresight (2011) against the background of the first two cycles and the international trends. This cycle represents a wider coverage of issues (macroeconomic scenarios, trends in basic research, S&T resources, future demand for skills, and global drivers of S&T developments); more complicated methodologies (bibliometric analysis, expert panels, surveys, roadmapping, and quantitative models); and a combination of “market pull” and “technology push” approaches toward estimating future developments. This cycle is building a wider network of experts at new Foresight centres at various Russian research universities. It concludes with a discussion of some barriers still to be overcome in Foresight studies: integration of sectoral visions, deeper analyses of some scientific disciplines, stronger integration into policy making, and spreading among business and research communities.Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

The paper highlights certain results of the Long-term science and technology foresight on key Russia’s economic sectors obtained in 2007-2008. One of the primary goals of the forecast is to determine main science and technology progress trends in major RF economic sectors with due consideration to strategic social and economic objectives, the transfer of Russian economy to the innovation development path and the achievement of target indicators set in the Long-term concept of RF social and economic development for the period up to 2020.

The paper highlights certain results of the Long-term science and technology foresight on key Russia’s economic sectors obtained in 2007–2008. One of the primary goals of the forecast is to determine main science and technology progress trends in major RF economic sectors with due consideration to strategic social and economic objectives, the transfer of Russian economy to the innovation development path and the achievement of target indicators set in the Long-term concept of RF social and economic development for the period up to 2020. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

The paper presents results of a comprehensive analysis of the cardiovascular diseases (CVD) situation, both in the global and Russian contexts. It introduces original data illustrating the declining mortality rate from CVD, and the diminishing contribution of these diseases to overall mortality rate--globally and, to a larger extent, in developed countries. The paper also analyses the reasons for continuing CVD epidemic in Russia. Based on factual evidence, it argues that those include insufficient expenditures on treating CVD patients, and critically inadequate funding of prevention programmes. Unsatisfactory use of these funds to subsidise Russian regions (without taking into account their actual needs determined by the CVD mortality rate) only makes the problem worse. Through modelling, "average" efficiency of the Russian health care system in reducing CVD mortality was revealed. The paper describes various scenarios for future development of the Russian CVD situation. In the context of innovation-based scenario, the advantages of technologicalforesight are analysed; specifically, the authors summarise major S & T development trends in the health sector (using data of the Russian S & T Foresight 2030), which could significantly contribute to stopping the CVD epidemic in Russia.

Currently the framework conditions for science and technology and innovation (STI) policy have changed significantly in Russia: a system of technology forecasting has been established, which focuses on ensuring the future needs of the manufacturing sector of the national economy. This system was supposed to be the main part of the state strategy planning system which is currently being formed. Over the last decade dozens of science and technology forward-looking projects have been implemented, among which 3 cycles of long-term S&T Foresight stand out prominently. The Foresight was developed by the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation. The development of the 3rd cycle of long-term Foresight includes both normative («market pull») and research («technology push») approaches. The project involved more than 2,000 experts and more than 200 organizations. Within the project a network of six sectoral Foresight centers was created on the basis of leading universities. The article describes the most important issues of future studies in Russia and presents the principles which formed the basis for the long-term science and technology (S&T) Foresight until 2030. The authors explore its position in the national technology Foresight system and the possibilities for the implementation of its results by the key stakeholders of the national innovation system and on the level of STI policy. Eventually Russian experience could be fairly interesting and useful for many other countries with similar socio-economic features and barriers