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Climate change affects both men and women which, in turn, shapes their varied and contrasting perceptions of climate variability and change. This paper examined the gendered perceptions of climate variability and change among local communities in Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda.The objectives are threefold: - identify climatic shocks faced by the local communities; examine the perceptions of men and women of climate variability and change; and to compare their perceptions with empirical meteorological data. This study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods, with data collected from 215 respondents using survey, interviews and focused group discussions. From the findings, indicators of climate variability and change included reduced flooding events, occurrence of human diseases, increasing crop pests and diseases, dry spells and intensity of rains. There was increasing significant temperatures while rainfall was declining. Both male and female significantly associated with increasing temperatures and reduced flooding events. While climatic shocks affected both males and females, the impact was more pronounced depending on distinct livelihood activities and roles and responsibilities undertaken. The study concluded that people’s perceptions of climate change should be taken on by the government and integrated in the national climate programs that support people’s livelihoods and survival mechanisms.

An assessment of the socio-economic implications of landslide occurrence in the Kigezi highlands of South Western Uganda was conducted. Landslide occurrence is on the increase and threatens community livelihoods in these highlands. Detailed field investigations were undertaken with the help of local communities between June 2018 and May 2020 to identify and map recent and visible landslide scars in Rukiga uplands of Kigezi highlands. In the course of field inventories, 85 visible landslide scars were identified and mapped using handheld GPS receivers to produce a landslide distribution map for the study area. A socio-economic analysis was conducted to establish the effects of landslide damage on people’s livelihoods as well as their existing coping and adaptation mechanisms. The assessment was administered through field observations and surveying, focus group discussions, key informants and household interviews as well as the use of Local Government Environmental Reports. The study established an increase in the spatial-temporal distribution of landslides over the Kigezi highlands in the past 40 years. The landslides have resulted in a reduction in the quality of land, loss of lives, destruction of transport infrastructures, settlements, farmlands, crops and other socio-economic infrastructures. Therefore, it is important to look for reliable and sustainable measures to prevent landslide hazards. Total landscape reforestation with deep-rooted trees can possibly reduce the landslide risk. It is also important to undertake policy implementation for preparedness and mitigation plans against landslides in this region and in the country at large. Proper soil and water conservation measures could help in enhancing soil strength against landslide hazards.

Climate change and variability are a reality and have had marked effects on both human and ecological systems. Adaptation to such effects either directly or indirectly is viewed as a novel way of reducing the spread of the associated risks. The study was conducted in Rubanda District with a general aim of evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation measures to climate variability used by smallholder Irish potatoes farmers. Specifically, we sought to appraise small-holder Irish potato farmers’ perceptions about the effectiveness of climate variability adaptation measures and implications on Irish potato productivity. We undertook a cross-sectional study to collect data from total of 197 farmers using a structured questionnaire. Other participatory methods such as focus group discussions and key informant interview were also used to complement the household survey. Data were analyzed using SPSS Version 23 to generate descriptive statistics as well as relationships between the adaptation measures and the productivity of the Irish potatoes using a Cobb-Douglas production function. The Cobb-Douglas model revealed that the use of fertilizers was significantly and positively associated with productivity of Irish potato (P < 0.001). Furthermore, Smallholder Irish potato farmers perceived the use of technology, terracing, early planting and application of fertilizers as the most effective climate variability adaptation measures. The study recommends that measures that are cost-effective, efficient and coherent should be promoted to offset the impacts of climate variability which would include the adoption of improved potato varieties and use of fertilizers with proper management of erosion. Off-season planting of Irish potatoes in the wetlands should be discouraged by the local administration and the National Environment Management Authority. This calls for a collective action involving the agricultural practitioners and inline civil society organizations to ensure that farmers have access to such inputs.

Rainfall extremes have strong connotations to socio-economic activities and human well-being in Uganda’s Lake Victoria Basin (LVB). Reliable prediction and dissemination of extreme rainfall events are therefore of paramount importance to the region’s development agenda. The main objective of this study was to contribute to the prediction of rainfall extremes over this region using a numerical modelling approach. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate a 20-day period of extremely heavy rainfall that was observed in the March to May season of 2008. The underlying interest was to investigate the performance of different combinations of cumulus and microphysical parameterization along with the model grid resolution and domain size. The model output was validated against rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) using 5 metrics; the rainfall distribution, root mean square error, mean error, probability of detection and false alarm ratio. The results showed that the model was able to simulate extreme rainfall and the most satisfactory skill was obtained with a model setup using the Grell 3D cumulus scheme combined with the SBU_YLin microphysical scheme. This study concludes that the WRF model can be used for simulating extreme rainfall over western LVB. In the other 2 regions, central and eastern LVB, its performance is limited by failure to simulate nocturnal rainfall. Furthermore, increasing the model grid resolution showed good potential for improving the model simulation especially when a large domain is used.

The changing climate has negatively impacted food systems by affecting rainfall patterns and leading to drought, flooding, and higher temperatures which reduce food production. This study examined the ability of communities to cope with food insecurity due to the changing climate in the Serere and Buyende districts, which are two different agro-ecological zones of Uganda. We administered 806 questionnaires to households, a sample size which was determined using Yamane’s formula, with the snowball sampling method used to select the households. The questionnaire sought information, including that regarding the respondents’ resources, the effects of climate change on households, and the coping mechanisms employed to reduce the impact of climate change on food security. The data collected was coded and analyzed using the statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS). Agriculture was found to be the main source of income for 42.4% of male adults and 41.2% of female adults in Serere. In Buyende, 39.9% of males and 33.7% of females rely on selling animal, poultry, and food crops. Aggregate results further showed that 58.3% of females and 42.2% of the males from both districts had suffered from the impacts of climate change, and that the effects were more evident between March and May, when communities experienced crop failure. The study further found that the percentage of households who had three meals a day was reduced from 59.7% to 43.6%, while the number of households with no major meals a day increased from 1.3% to 1.6%. We also found that 34.3% of households reported buying food during periods of crop failure or food scarcity. Moreover, despite reporting an understanding of several coping mechanisms, many households were limited in their ability to implement the coping mechanisms by their low incomes. This reinforced their reliance on affordable mechanisms, such as growing drought-resistant crops (32.7%), rearing drought-resistant livestock breeds (26.1%), and reducing the number of meals a day (14.5%), which are mechanisms that are insufficient for solving all the climate-related food insecurity challenges. We recommend that the government intervenes by revising policies which help farmers cope with the negative effects of climate change, promoting the sensitization of farmers to employing the coping mechanisms, and subsidizing agricultural inputs, such as resistant varieties of crops, for all to afford.

Climate variability and change pose greater challenge not only to human life but to the environment at large. This study sought to evaluate the significance of institutional factors in climate variability adaptation of smallholder Irish potato farmers in Rubanda District, South Western Uganda with the objective of assessing the adaptation measures adopted by smallholder Irish potato farmers, determining the institutional factors that influence adoption of climate variability adaptation measures; and evaluating the institutional challenges that affect the adapting Irish potato farmers. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken to collect data from 197 systematically sampled smallholder farmers from two purposively selected sub counties (Muko and Bubaare) in Rubanda District, using structured questionnaires; whilst key informant interviews were used to elicit data from purposively selected personnel from the local government as well as private and civil society organizations. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relative influence of selected variables on adaptation measures against climate variability. Results indicate that smallholder Irish potato farmers are adapting to climate variability through agronomic measures such as terracing, mulching, contour ploughing, changing planting dates, early planting, crop-rotation, and technology related measures such as rain water harvesting technologies, adaptive varieties and fertilizers among others. Results from multiple linear regression analysis show that several institutional factors are influencing adoption of climate variability adaptive measures with the most significant ones being access to agricultural extension services, cultivated area and size of land owned. Despite the interventions undertaken, adaptation to climate variability is constrained by the limited access to financial/credit resources and inadequate technical capacity as well as limited access to information and irregularity of extension services. The study recommends that public and private institutions and personnel, both technical and political, at the various levels of local government, work together to improve extension services, communication as well as enhancing access to credit facilities among smallholder farmers, who will also need to further strengthen existing social groups to enhance their bargaining power.

Climate risks and vulnerability continue to disproportionately affect the urban poor given their constrained adaptive capacity. This paper examines the urban poor’s perceptions and vulnerability to climate change in Kampala. Data was collected from a proportionate sample of 534 respondents drawn from households that were randomly selected from the city’s informal settlements and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Six focus group discussions and 15 key informant interviews were conducted whose participants were purposively selected because of their knowledge and experiences. Quantitative data was analyzed using chi-square tests while content analysis was used to analyze qualitative data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions. A total of 96.6% of the households were aware of climate change, mainly perceived as rising temperatures and reduction in rainfall. Floods (53.4%) and droughts (27%) were the most commonly experienced climate risks, with the former considered more frequent and severe. Perceptions and vulnerability to climate risk varied with incomes, education level, marital status, main occupation, housing conditions and length of stay. Individuals with less wealth and education, employed in informal business and having insecure housing tenure were most vulnerable to flooding than they are to drought. The sensitivity of the urban poor communities is heightened by ecosystem degradation, poor access to urban infrastructure, utilities and services. With socio-economic attributes highly associated to climate change vulnerabilities, incorporating social dimensions and exchange of information between the vulnerable communities, planners and decision makers is necessary to inform the city’s adaptation policy and building long-term urban resilience. Partnerships are necessary between the urban authorities, communities, civil society and donors/financiers to improve housing and livelihoods in slums settlements. At the same time, strengthening co-production of climate information services, building climate change awareness, restoration of critical ecosystems and a broader inclusive adaptation planning are avenues for building resilient urban poor communities.

The study evaluates the ability of ten regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the present-day rainfall over Uganda within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period 1990–2008. The models’ ability to reproduce the space-time variability of annual, seasonal, and interannual rainfall has been diagnosed. A series of metrics have been employed to quantify the RCM-simulated rainfall pattern discrepancies and biases compared to three gridded observational datasets. It is found that most models underestimate the annual rainfall over the country; however, the seasonality of rainfall is properly reproduced by the RCMs with a bimodal component over the major part of the country and a unimodal component over the north. Models reproduce the interannual variability of the dry season (December–February) but fail with the long and short rains seasons even if the ENSO and IOD signal is correctly simulated by most models. In many aspects, the UQAM-CRCM5 RCM is found to perform best over the region. Overall, the ensemble mean of the ten RCMs reproduces the rainfall climatology over Uganda with reasonable skill.

This study examines the effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa. The impacts are analysed based on the outputs of a 25-member regional multi-model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The regional climate models were driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Global Climate Models for historical and future (RCP8.5) periods. We analyse the three major seasons over the region, namely March–May, June–September, and October–December. Results indicate widespread robust changes in the mean intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics at 1.5 °C and 2 °C GWLs especially for the June–September and October–December seasons. The March–May season is projected to shift for both GWL scenarios with the season starting and ending early. During the June–September season, there is a robust indication of delayed onset, reduction in consecutive wet days and shortening of the length of rainy season over parts of the northern sector under 2 °C GWL. During the October–December season, the region is projected to have late-onset, delayed cessation, reduced consecutive wet days and a longer season over most of the equatorial region under the 2 °C GWL. These results indicate that it is crucial to limit the GWL to below 1.5 °C as the differences between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C GWLs in some cases exacerbates changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa.

The aim of this study was to determine suitability zones of future banana growth under a changing climate to guide the design of future adaptation options in the banana sub-sector of Uganda. The study used high resolution (~1 km) data on combined bioclimatic variables (rainfall and temperature) to map suitability zones of the banana crop while the Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model temperature simulations were used to estimate the effect of rising temperature on banana growth assuming other factors constant. The downscaled future climate projections were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, A1B and A2) across the period 2011–2090. The methodology involved identification of banana-climate growth thresholds and developing suitability indices for banana production under the high mitigation (RCP 2.6, less adaptation), medium mitigation (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0, medium adaptation), no mitigation (RCP 8.5, very high adaptation) scenarios, SRES A1B and A2 scenarios. The FAO ECO-Crop tool was used to determine and map future suitability of banana growth. Banana production indices were determined using a suitability model in the Geographical Information System (GIS) spatial analyst tool. The non-linear banana-temperature regression model was used to assess the impact of future changes in temperature on banana growth. The results revealed unique and distinct banana production suitability and growth patterns for each climate scenario in the sub-periods. RCPs 2.6 and 6.5 are likely to be associated with higher levels of banana production than RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results further showed that projected temperature increase under SRES A1B will promote banana growth. In contrast, expected increases in temperatures under SRES A2 are likely to retard banana growth due to high moisture deficits. There is need to develop adaptation option for farming communities to maximize their agricultural production and incomes. The effectiveness of adaptation options needed to combat the impacts will be influenced by the magnitude of the expected climatic changes associated with each scenario, the timing of expected climate change extremes and sensitivity of the crop to climate. This study has provided critical information that will be useful for planning integrated adaptation practices in the banana farming subsector to promote productivity.

Understanding variations in rainfall in tropical regions is important due to its impacts on water resources, health and agriculture. This study assessed the dekadal rainfall patterns and rain days to determine intra-seasonal rainfall variability during the March–May season using the Mann–Kendall ( M K ) trend test and simple linear regression ( S L R ) over the period 2000–2015. Results showed an increasing trend of both dekadal rainfall amount and rain days (third and seventh dekads). The light rain days ( S L R = 0.181; M K = 0.350) and wet days ( S L R = 0.092; M K = 0.118) also depict an increasing trend. The rate of increase of light rain days and wet days during the third dekad (light rain days: S L R = 0.020; M K = 0.279 and wet days: S L R = 0.146; M K = 0.376) was slightly greater than during the seventh dekad (light rain days: S L R = 0.014; M K = 0.018 and wet days: S L R = 0.061; M K = 0.315) dekad. Seventy-four percent accounted for 2–4 consecutive dry days, but no significant trend was detected. The extreme rainfall was increasing over the third ( M K = 0.363) and seventh ( M K = 0.429) dekads. The rainfall amount and rain days were highly correlated (r: 0.43–0.72).

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming