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Population genetic models only provide coarse representations of real-world ancestry. We used a pedigree compiled from 4 million parish records and genotype data from 2276 French and 20,451 French Canadian individuals to finely model and trace French Canadian ancestry through space and time. The loss of ancestral French population structure and the appearance of spatial and regional structure highlights a wide range of population expansion models. Geographic features shaped migrations, and we find enrichments for migration, genetic, and genealogical relatedness patterns within river networks across regions of Quebec. Finally, we provide a freely accessible simulated whole-genome sequence dataset with spatiotemporal metadata for 1,426,749 individuals reflecting intricate French Canadian population structure. Such realistic population-scale simulations provide opportunities to investigate population genetics at an unprecedented resolution.

Cortical arealization arises during neurodevelopment from the confluence of molecular gradients representing patterned expression of morphogens and transcription factors. However, how these gradients relate to adult brain function, and whether they are maintained in the adult brain, remains unknown. Here we uncover three axes of topographic variation in gene expression in the adult human brain that specifically capture previously identified rostral-caudal, dorsal-ventral and medial-lateral axes of early developmental patterning. The interaction of these spatiomolecular gradients i) accurately predicts the location of unseen brain tissue samples, ii) delineates known functional territories, and iii) explains the topographical variation of diverse cortical features. The spatiomolecular gradients are distinct from canonical cortical functional hierarchies differentiating primary sensory cortex from association cortex, but radiate in parallel with the axes traversed by local field potentials along the cortex. We replicate all three molecular gradients in three independent human datasets as well as two non-human primate datasets, and find that each gradient shows a distinct developmental trajectory across the lifespan. The gradients are composed of several well known morphogens (e.g., PAX6 and SIX3), and a small set of genes shared across gradients are strongly enriched for multiple diseases. Together, these results provide insight into the developmental sculpting of functionally distinct brain regions, governed by three robust transcriptomic axes embedded within brain parenchyma.

Uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) has been rapidly adopted by the population genetics community to study population structure. It has become common in visualizing the ancestral composition of human genetic datasets, as well as searching for unique clusters of data, and for identifying geographic patterns. Here we give an overview of applications of UMAP in population genetics, provide recommendations for best practices, and offer insights on optimal uses for the technique.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials., Comment: Presents final results of the TADPOLE competition. 60 pages, 7 tables, 14 figures

Efforts to build representative studies are defeated when scientists discard data from certain groups. Instead, researchers should work to balance statistical needs with fairness. Efforts to build representative studies are defeated when scientists discard data from certain groups. Instead, researchers should work to balance statistical needs with fairness.

People in the Americas represent a diverse group of populations with varying degrees of admixture among African, European, and Amerindigenous ancestries. In the United States, many populations with non-European ancestry remain understudied, and thus little is known about the genetic architecture of phenotypic variation in these populations. Using genome-wide genotype data from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos, we find that Amerindigenous ancestry has increased over time across Hispanic/Latino populations, particularly in Mexican Americans where Amerindigenous ancestry increased by an average of ∼20% over the 50-year period spanning 1940s-1990s. We find similar patterns across American cities, and replicate our observations in an independent sample of Mexican Americans. These dynamic ancestry patterns are a result of a complex interaction of several population and cultural factors, including strong ancestry-related assortative mating and subtle shifts in migration with differences in subcontinental Amerindigenous ancestry over time. These factors have shaped patterns of genetic variation, including an increase in runs of homozygosity in Amerindigenous ancestral tracts, and also influenced the genetic architecture of complex traits within the Mexican American population. We show for height, a trait correlated with ancestry, polygenic risk scores based on summary statistics from a European-based genome-wide association study perform poorly in Mexican Americans. Our findings reveal temporal changes in population structure within Hispanics/Latinos that may influence biomedical traits, demonstrating a crucial need to improve our understanding of the genetic diversity of admixed populations.

Human populations feature both discrete and continuous patterns of variation. Current analysis approaches struggle to jointly identify these patterns because of modelling assumptions, mathematical constraints, or numerical challenges. Here we apply uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP), a non-linear dimension reduction tool, to three well-studied genotype datasets and discover overlooked subpopulations within the American Hispanic population, fine-scale relationships between geography, genotypes, and phenotypes in the UK population, and cryptic structure in the Thousand Genomes Project data. This approach is well-suited to the influx of large and diverse data and opens new lines of inquiry in population-scale datasets., Author summary The demographic history of human populations features varying geographic and social barriers to mating. Over time, these barriers have led to varying levels of genetic relatedness among individuals. This population structure is informative about human history, and can have a significant impact on studies of medical genetics. Because population structure depends on myriad demographic, ecological, and social forces, a priori visualization is useful to identify subtle patterns of population structure. We use a dimension reduction method—UMAP—to visualize population structure in three genomic datasets and find previously unobserved patterns, revealing fine-scale population structure and illustrating differences between groups in traits such as white blood cell count, height, and FEV1, a measure of lung function. Using UMAP is computationally efficient and can identify fine-scale population structure in large population datasets. We find it particularly useful to reveal phenotypic variation among genetically related populations, and recommend it is a complement to principal component analysis in primary data visualization.

Genetic structure in large cohorts results from technical, sampling and demographic variation. Visualisation is therefore a first step in most genomic analyses. However, existing data exploration methods struggle with unbalanced sampling and the many scales of population structure. We investigate an approach to dimension reduction of genomic data that combines principal components analysis (PCA) with uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) to succinctly illustrate population structure in large cohorts and capture their relationships on local and global scales. Using data from large-scale genomic datasets, we demonstrate that PCA-UMAP effectively clusters closely related individuals while placing them in a global continuum of genetic variation. This approach reveals previously overlooked subpopulations within the American Hispanic population and fine-scale relationships between geography, genotypes, and phenotypes in the UK population. This opens new lines of investigation for demographic research and statistical genetics. Given its small computational cost, PCA-UMAP also provides a general-purpose approach to exploratory analysis in population-scale datasets.Author summaryBecause of geographic isolation, individuals tend to be more genetically related to people living nearby than to people living far. This is an example of population structure, a situation where a large population contains subgroups that share more than the average amount of DNA. This structure can tell us about human history, and it can also have a large effect on medical studies. We use a newly developed method (UMAP) to visualize population structure from three genomic datasets. Using genotype data alone, we reveal numerous subgroups related to ancestry and correlated with traits such as white blood cell count, height, and FEV1, a measure used to detect airway obstruction. We demonstrate that UMAP reveals previously unobserved patterns and fine-scale structure. We show that visualizations work especially well in large datasets containing populations with diverse backgrounds, which are rapidly becoming more common, and that unlike other visualization methods, we can preserve intuitive connections between populations that reflect their shared ancestries. The combination of these results and the effectiveness of the strategy on large and diverse datasets make this an important approach for exploratory analysis for geneticists studying ancestral events and phenotype distributions.