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Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular African country extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels and impacts such as inundation, shore line change, and salt water intrusion into underground aquifers. Projections of climate change have considered coarse model resolutions. The objective of this work is to dynamically downscale the global model projections to 4-km resolution and to assess the climate change in the Sao Tome and Principe islands. The global climate projections are provided by the Canadian Earth System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling is produced by the Eta regional climate model. The baseline period is taken between 1971 and 2000, and the future climate period is taken between 2041 and 2070. The 2-m temperature simulations show good agreement with station data. The model simulates temperature more accurately than precipitation. The precipitation simulations systematically show underestimation and delay of the rainy and the dry seasons by about 1 month, a feature inherited from the global climate model. In the middle of the 21st century, projections show the strongest warming in the elevated parts of the Sao Tome Island, especially in February under RCP8.5. Warmer nights and warmer days become more frequent in the islands when compared with those in the present. While under RCP4.5, precipitation increases in the islands; under RCP8.5, it decreases everywhere in both islands. Heavy precipitation rates should increase, especially in the south-southwestern parts of the Sao Tome islands. Detailed spatial variability of the temperature and precipitation changes in the islands can only be revealed at very high spatial model resolution. Implications for the potential energy production from two major river basins are assessed in this work.

The presente research refers to the analysis of the socioeconomic impacts caused by the stoppage of the University City of the State University of Amazonas in the Community Our Lady of Nazareth Lake Test with the objective of investigating the consequences of not observing the principle of efficiency in execution of the work of the University City by its managers, verifying the curret socioeconomic situation of this local population, and finally propose ways to mitigate problems and losses resulting from the stoppage, which is a matter of common interest as it covers all social classes. The research approach is quantitative because it intends to describe a phenomenon of a particular group or Society, its research instrument was the interview. To be eficiente during the execution of a work, it is necessary to have management during the process, so the Executive Branch has instituted laws fo the public Works to be managed efficiently, namely: the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), instituted by the Decree n° 6.025/2007; the DifferentialContracting Regime (RDC), launched by Law nº 12.462/2011; and the Bidding Law, introduced by Law n° 8.666/1993. These measures sought to reduce delas and stoppages in public Works and the social and economic impacts that might be generated.

O Novo Código Florestal (NCF), Lei Federal 12.651/2012, alterou as definições para Áreas de Proteção Permanente (APP) localizadas nos topos de morro, o que reduziu drasticamente a área legalmente amparada para tal categoria de proteção. Nesse sentido, buscou-se compreender como o uso e a cobertura do solo podem alterar o regime hidrológico, utilizando-se de cenários e simulações de um modelo conceitual distribuído. Para tanto, mapearam-se as APP de topo de morro de acordo com a definição revogada e lei vigente, utilizando-se a metodologia do Modelo Digital de Elevação (MDE) invertido. Tal mapeamento embasou a elaboração de quatro cenários de Uso e Cobertura do Solo (UCS) na bacia, com diferentes percentuais de cobertura florestal. Para a simulação hidrológica utilizou-se o Modelo de Grandes Bacias do Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas (MGB-IPH), o qual foi ajustado para as condições atuais de UCS e, posteriormente, simulou-se o comportamento hidrológico mediante os diferentes cenários. De acordo com o mapeamento realizado, a redução das APP de topo de morro para a bacia do rio Sapucaí é superior a 99% com a aplicação do código vigente. Não se verificou diferenças no comportamento hidrológico da bacia considerando as condições de UCS atual e os três cenários baseados na cobertura das APP. No terceiro e quarto cenário verificou-se o aumento das vazões médias que coincide com o aumento da cobertura florestal. Destaca-se que esse aumento resultou da maior quantidade de água no solo, uma vez que o escoamento superficial foi reduzido com o aumento da cobertura florestal na sub-bacia.Palavras-chave: Simulação hidrológica, legislação ambiental, regime hidrológico Application of the MGB-IPH Hydrological Model for Simulating Land Use Scenarios in the Sapucaí River Basin (MG)A B S T R A C TThe New Forest Code (NFC), Federal Law 12.651/ 2012, changed the definitions for Permanent Protection Areas (PPA) located on the hilltops. The resolutions drastically reduced the area legally protected by this category of protection. In this sense, we sought to understand how the land use and land cover (LULC) can alter the hydrological regime, using scenarios and simulations of a distributed conceptual model. For that, the top of hill PPAs were mapped according to the revoked definition and current law, using the inverted Digital Elevation Model (DEM) methodology. Such mapping supported the development of four hypothetical LULC scenarios in the basin, with different percentages of forest cover. For the hydrological simulation, the Large Basin Model of the Institute of Hydraulic Research (MGB-IPH) was used and was adjusted to the current conditions of LULC and later, the hydrological behavior was simulated under the different scenarios. According to the mapping carried out, the reduction of PPAs at the top of the hill for the Sapucaí River basin is greater than 99% with the application of the current code. There were no significant differences in the hydrological behavior of the basin considering the current LULC conditions and the three scenarios based on PPA coverage. In the third and fourth scenarios, there was an increase in average flows that coincides with the increase in forest cover. It is noteworthy that this increase is the greater amount of water in the soil, once the runoff was reduced with the increase of the forest cover in the sub-basin.Keywords: Hydrological simulation, environmental legislation, hydrological regime