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1. Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Author

Bertram, Christoph, Brutschin, Elina, Drouet, Laurent, Luderer, Gunnar, van Ruijven, Bas, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, de Boer, Harmen-Sytze, Cui, Ryna, Daioglou, Vassilis, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Dimitris, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hultman, Nate, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Lamboll, Robin D., Mandaroux, Rahel, Rochedo, Pedro, Rogelj, Joeri, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva, Diego, Tagomori, Isabela, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, and Riahi, Keywan

Published
2024
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5. Author Correction: Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Author

van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2022
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6. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R. R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021
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8. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Author

van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2021
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11. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Author

Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2017
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12. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Author

Roelfsema, Mark, van Soest, Heleen L., Harmsen, Mathijs, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Höhne, Niklas, Iacobuta, Gabriela, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Luderer, Gunnar, Riahi, Keywan, Ueckerdt, Falko, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Gidden, Matthew, Humpenöder, Florian, Huppmann, Daniel, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gi, Keii, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Rochedo, Pedro, Schaeffer, Roberto, Oshiro, Ken, Vrontisi, Zoi, Chen, Wenying, Iyer, Gokul C., Edmonds, Jae, Kannavou, Maria, Jiang, Kejun, Mathur, Ritu, Safonov, George, and Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma

Published
2020
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20. Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment

Author

Zoi Vrontisi, Gunnar Luderer, Bert Saveyn, Kimon Keramidas, Aleluia Reis Lara, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Laurent Drouet, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Celine Guivarch, Alban Kitous, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Eoin Ó Broin, Leonidas Paroussos, and Detlef van Vuuren

Subjects
INDC, 1.5 degree, 2 degrees, integrated assessment modelling, mitigation cost, Paris Agreement, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO _2 eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO _2 emission reductions in all scenarios, primarily through high penetration of renewables and energy efficiency improvements. In combination with an increased electrification of final energy demand, low-carbon power supply is the main short-term abatement option. We find that the global macroeconomic cost of mitigation efforts does not reduce the 2020–2030 annual GDP growth rates in any model more than 0.1 percentage points in the INDC or 0.3 and 0.5 in the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively even without accounting for potential co-benefits and avoided climate damages. Accordingly, the median GDP reductions across all models in 2030 are 0.4%, 1.2% and 3.3% of reference GDP for each respective scenario. Costs go up with increasing mitigation efforts but a fragmented action, as implied by the INDCs, results in higher costs per unit of abated emissions. On a regional level, the cost distribution is different across scenarios while fossil fuel exporters see the highest GDP reductions in all INDC, 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios.

Published
2018
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23. Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 045005)

Author

Rafaj, Peter, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Krey, Volker, Schoepp, Wolfgang, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hilaire, Jérôme, Huppmann, Daniel, Klimont, Zbigniew, Kolp, Peter, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Van Vuuren, Detlef, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Environmental Science(all), Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Published
2021

24. Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °c-2 °c climate pathways under considerations of ageing population

Author

Rafaj, Peter, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Krey, Volker, Schöpp, Wolfgang, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Shinichiro, Fujimori, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hilaire, Jerome, Huppmann, Daniel, Klimont, Zbigniew, Kolp, Peter, Aleluia Reis, Lara, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Environmental Science(all), air pollution, co-benefits, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, low-carbon pathways, Paris Agreement, population ageing, health impacts
Abstract

Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2 °C and 1.5 °C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the decarbonization of energy systems and the resulting changes in premature mortality attributed to the exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter. The emission reductions differ by sectors. Sulfur emissions are mainly reduced from power plants and industry, cuts in nitrogen oxides are dominated by the transport sector, and the largest abatement of primary fine particles is achieved in the residential sector. The analysis also shows that health benefits are the largest when policies addressing climate change mitigation and stringent air pollution controls are coordinated. We decompose the key factors that determine the extent of health co-benefits, focusing on Asia: changes in emissions, urbanization rates, population growth and ageing. Demographic processes, particularly due to ageing population, counteract in many regions the mortality reductions realized through lower emissions.

Published
2021

25. Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 045005)

Author

Rafaj, Peter, primary, Kiesewetter, Gregor, additional, Krey, Volker, additional, Schoepp, Wolfgang, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Fricko, Oliver, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Harmsen, Mathijs, additional, Hilaire, Jérôme, additional, Huppmann, Daniel, additional, Klimont, Zbigniew, additional, Kolp, Peter, additional, Aleluia Reis, Lara, additional, and van Vuuren, Detlef, additional

Published
2021
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26. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021

27. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2021

28. Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 045005)

Author

Environmental Sciences, Rafaj, Peter, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Krey, Volker, Schoepp, Wolfgang, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hilaire, Jérôme, Huppmann, Daniel, Klimont, Zbigniew, Kolp, Peter, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Environmental Sciences, Rafaj, Peter, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Krey, Volker, Schoepp, Wolfgang, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hilaire, Jérôme, Huppmann, Daniel, Klimont, Zbigniew, Kolp, Peter, Aleluia Reis, Lara, and Van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2021

29. Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °c-2 °c climate pathways under considerations of ageing population

Author

Environmental Sciences, Rafaj, Peter, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Krey, Volker, Schöpp, Wolfgang, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Shinichiro, Fujimori, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hilaire, Jerome, Huppmann, Daniel, Klimont, Zbigniew, Kolp, Peter, Aleluia Reis, Lara, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Rafaj, Peter, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Krey, Volker, Schöpp, Wolfgang, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Shinichiro, Fujimori, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hilaire, Jerome, Huppmann, Daniel, Klimont, Zbigniew, Kolp, Peter, Aleluia Reis, Lara, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2021

30. Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis

Author

Rafaj, Peter, primary, Kiesewetter, Gregor, additional, Krey, Volker, additional, Schoepp, Wolfgang, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Fricko, Oliver, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Harmsen, Mathijs, additional, Hilaire, Jérôme, additional, Huppmann, Daniel, additional, Klimont, Zbigniew, additional, Kolp, Peter, additional, Aleluia Reis, Lara, additional, and van Vuuren, Detlef, additional

Published
2021
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32. Taking some heat off the NDCs?: The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Author

Environmental Sciences, Harmsen, Mathijs, Fricko, Oliver, Hilaire, Jérôme, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Drouet, Laurent, Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Keramidas, Kimon, Klimont, Zbigniew, Luderer, Gunnar, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Smith, Steven J., Environmental Sciences, Harmsen, Mathijs, Fricko, Oliver, Hilaire, Jérôme, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Drouet, Laurent, Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Keramidas, Kimon, Klimont, Zbigniew, Luderer, Gunnar, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, and Smith, Steven J.

Published
2020

33. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Author

Environmental Sciences, Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Roelfsema, Mark, van Soest, Heleen L., Harmsen, Mathijs, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Höhne, Niklas, Iacobuta, Gabriela, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Luderer, Gunnar, Riahi, Keywan, Ueckerdt, Falko, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Gidden, Matthew, Humpenöder, Florian, Huppmann, Daniel, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gi, Keii, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Rochedo, Pedro, Schaeffer, Roberto, Oshiro, Ken, Vrontisi, Zoi, Chen, Wenying, Iyer, Gokul C., Edmonds, Jae, Kannavou, Maria, Jiang, Kejun, Mathur, Ritu, Safonov, George, Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma, Environmental Sciences, Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Roelfsema, Mark, van Soest, Heleen L., Harmsen, Mathijs, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Höhne, Niklas, Iacobuta, Gabriela, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Luderer, Gunnar, Riahi, Keywan, Ueckerdt, Falko, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Gidden, Matthew, Humpenöder, Florian, Huppmann, Daniel, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gi, Keii, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Rochedo, Pedro, Schaeffer, Roberto, Oshiro, Ken, Vrontisi, Zoi, Chen, Wenying, Iyer, Gokul C., Edmonds, Jae, Kannavou, Maria, Jiang, Kejun, Mathur, Ritu, Safonov, George, and Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma

Published
2020

34. Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Author

Harmsen, Mathijs, primary, Fricko, Oliver, additional, Hilaire, Jérôme, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Keramidas, Kimon, additional, Klimont, Zbigniew, additional, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Aleluia Reis, Lara, additional, Riahi, Keywan, additional, Sano, Fuminori, additional, and Smith, Steven J., additional

Published
2019
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36. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Author

Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Bio-, hydro-, and environmental geochemistry, Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Bio-, hydro-, and environmental geochemistry, Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2017

37. Low-emission pathways in 11 major economies: comparison of cost-optimal pathways and Paris climate proposals

Author

Environmental Sciences, van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Drouet, Laurent, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Den Elzen, Michel G.J., Tavoni, Massimo, Akimoto, Keigo, Calvin, Katherine V., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Kitous, Alban, Luderer, Gunnar, Riahi, Keywan, Environmental Sciences, van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Drouet, Laurent, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Den Elzen, Michel G.J., Tavoni, Massimo, Akimoto, Keigo, Calvin, Katherine V., Fragkos, Panagiotis, Kitous, Alban, Luderer, Gunnar, and Riahi, Keywan

Published
2017

38. Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

Author

Van Soest, Heleen, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Jewell, Jessica, Kriegler, Elmar, Luderer, Gunnar, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Tavoni, Massimo, and Den Elzen, Michel

Subjects
Mitigation, Climate policy, Global and national policy comparison, Environmental Economics and Policy
Abstract

Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

Published
2016
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39. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in developing Asia

Author

Aleluia Reis, Lara, Emmerling, Johannes, Tavoni, Massimo, and Raitzer, David

Subjects
C61, Q52, mitigation, Q53, climate change, Q54, greenhouse gas, ddc:330, D58, Paris Agreement, energy
Abstract

Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2êC) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050, while 2êC scenarios may cost less than 2% of GDP. However, costs are sensitive to assumptions about international carbon markets and mitigation timing, with costs for 2êC scenarios doubling in the absence of carbon trade, and increasing the later that mitigation is initiated. Under the 2êC scenarios, annual average energy supply investments are about $300 billion above the BAU levels through 2050. Mitigation policy may substantially reduce air pollution mortality, with up to 600,000 fewer deaths in Asia annually by 2050. When costs, benefits of avoided climate change, and cobenefits are considered together, investment in mitigation policy is found to have substantial economic returns for the region - if action is taken rapidly and international carbon market mechanisms are implemented.

Published
2016

41. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

Author

Environmental Sciences, Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Leitao, Joana, Riahi, Keywan, van Dingenen, Rita, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Dentener, Frank, Drouet, Laurent, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Luderer, Gunnar, Heyes, Chris, Strefler, Jessica, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Leitao, Joana, Riahi, Keywan, van Dingenen, Rita, Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Dentener, Frank, Drouet, Laurent, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Luderer, Gunnar, Heyes, Chris, Strefler, Jessica, Tavoni, Massimo, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2016

42. Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °Câ€"2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 045005).

Author

Rafaj, Peter, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Krey, Volker, Schoepp, Wolfgang, Bertram, Christoph, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hilaire, JĂ©rĂ´me, Huppmann, Daniel, Klimont, Zbigniew, Kolp, Peter, Aleluia Reis, Lara, and van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2021
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43. Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate Assumptions.

Author

Aleluia Reis, Lara, Drouet, Laurent, Van Dingenen, Rita, and Emmerling, Johannes

Abstract

Future socioeconomic developments and climate policies will play a role in air quality improvement since greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions are highly connected. As these interactions are complex, air quality indices are useful tools to assess the sustainability of future policies. Here, we compute new global annual air quality indices to provide insights into future global and regional air quality, allowing for the evaluation of the sustainability of climate policies. We project the future concentrations of major the air pollutants for five socioeconomic pathways covering a broad range of climate radiative forcing targets in 2100, using a fast transport chemistry emulator and the emission database produced for the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our findings show that climate policies are very relevant in reducing air pollution exposure by mid-century. Climate policies will have a stronger effect on the pollution reduction timing, while socioeconomic developments will have a greater impact on the absolute pollution level. A 1.5 ∘ C policy target may prevent all regions from exceeding the annual average limit for all pollutants considered, except PM 2.5 . We emphasize the importance of considering exposure air quality indices, when assessing sustainable policies, as being more informative rather than a population-weighted average index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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