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Summary The Eurasian Holocene (beginning c. 12 thousand years ago) encompassed some of the most significant changes in human evolution, with far-reaching consequences for the dietary, physical and mental health of present-day populations. Using an imputed dataset of >1600 complete ancient genome sequences, and new computational methods for locating selection in time and space, we reconstructed the selection landscape of the transition from hunting and gathering, to farming and pastoralism across West Eurasia. We identify major selection signals related to metabolism, possibly associated with the dietary shift occurring in this period. We show that the selection on loci such as the FADS cluster, associated with fatty acid metabolism, and the lactase persistence locus, began earlier than previously thought. A substantial amount of selection is also found in the HLA region and other loci associated with immunity, possibly due to the increased exposure to pathogens during the Neolithic, which may explain the current high prevalence of auto-immune disease, such as psoriasis, due to genetic trade-offs. By using ancient populations to infer local ancestry tracks in hundreds of thousands of samples from the UK Biobank, we find strong genetic differentiation among ancient Europeans in loci associated with anthropometric traits and susceptibility to several diseases that contribute to present-day disease burden. These were previously thought to be caused by local selection, but in fact can be attributed to differential genetic contributions from various source populations that are ancestral to present-day Europeans. Thus, alleles associated with increased height seem to have increased in frequency following the Yamnaya migration into northwestern Europe around 5,000 years ago. Alleles associated with increased risk of some mood-related phenotypes are overrepresented in the farmer ancestry component entering Europe from Anatolia around 11,000 years ago, while western hunter-gatherers show a strikingly high contribution of alleles conferring risk of traits related to diabetes. Our results paint a picture of the combined contributions of migration and selection in shaping the phenotypic landscape of present-day Europeans that suggests a combination of ancient selection and migration, rather than recent local selection, is the primary driver of present-day phenotypic differences in Europe.

Over the past decade, summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been used to detect and quantify polygenic adaptation in humans. Several studies have reported signatures of natural selection at sets of SNPs associated with complex traits, like height and body mass index. However, more recent studies suggest that some of these signals may be caused by biases from uncorrected population stratification in the GWAS data with which these tests are performed. Moreover, past studies have predominantly relied on SNP effect size estimates obtained from GWAS panels of European ancestries, which are known to be poor predictors of phenotypes in non-European populations. Here, we collated GWAS data from multiple anthropometric and metabolic traits that have been measured in more than one cohort around the world, including the UK Biobank, FINRISK, Chinese NIPT, Biobank Japan, APCDR and PAGE. We then evaluated how robust signals of polygenic adaptation are to the choice of GWAS cohort used to identify associated variants and their effect size estimates, while using the same panel to obtain population allele frequencies (The 1000 Genomes Project). We observe many discrepancies across tests performed on the same phenotype and find that GWAS meta-analyses produce scores with strong overdispersion across populations. This results in apparent signatures of polygenic adaptation which are not observed when using effect size estimates from biobank-based GWAS of homogeneous ancestries. Indeed, we were able to artificially create score overdispersion when taking a homogeneous cohort like the UK Biobank, and simulating a meta-analysis on multiple subsets of the cohort. This suggests that extreme caution should be taken in the execution and interpretation of future tests of polygenic adaptation based on population differentiation, especially when using summary statistics from GWAS meta-analyses.

Over the past decade, summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been used to detect and quantify polygenic adaptation in humans. Several studies have reported signatures of natural selection at sets of SNPs associated with complex traits, like height and body mass index. However, more recent studies suggest that some of these signals may be caused by biases from uncorrected population stratification in the GWAS data with which these tests are performed. Moreover, past studies have predominantly relied on SNP effect size estimates obtained from GWAS panels of European ancestries, which are known to be poor predictors of phenotypes in non-European populations. Here, we collated GWAS data from multiple anthropometric and metabolic traits that have been measured in more than one cohort around the world, including the UK Biobank, FINRISK, Chinese NIPT, Biobank Japan, APCDR and PAGE. We then evaluated how robust signals of polygenic score overdispersion (which have been interpreted as suggesting polygenic adaptation) are to the choice of GWAS cohort used to identify associated variants and their effect size estimates. We did so while using the same panel to obtain population allele frequencies (The 1000 Genomes Project). We observe many discrepancies across tests performed on the same phenotype and find that association studies performed using multiple different cohorts, like meta-analyses and mega-analyses, tend to produce polygenic scores with strong overdispersion across populations. This results in apparent signatures of polygenic adaptation which are not observed when using effect size estimates from biobank-based GWASs of homogeneous ancestries. Indeed, we were able to artificially create score overdispersion when taking the UK Biobank cohort and simulating a meta-analysis on multiple subsets of the cohort. Finally, we show that the amount of overdispersion in scores for educational attainment - a trait with strong social implications and high potential for misinterpretation - is also strongly dependent on the specific GWAS used to build them. This suggests that extreme caution should be taken in the execution and interpretation of future tests of polygenic score overdispersion based on population differentiation, especially when using summary statistics from a GWAS that combines multiple cohorts.

Detailed modeling of a species’ history is of prime importance for understanding how natural selection operates over time. Most methods designed to detect positive selection along sequenced genomes, however, use simplified representations of past histories as null models of genetic drift. Here, we present the first method that can detect signatures of strong local adaptation across the genome using arbitrarily complex admixture graphs, which are typically used to describe the history of past divergence and admixture events among any number of populations. The method—called Graph-aware Retrieval of Selective Sweeps (GRoSS)—has good power to detect loci in the genome with strong evidence for past selective sweeps and can also identify which branch of the graph was most affected by the sweep. As evidence of its utility, we apply the method to bovine, codfish and human population genomic data containing multiple population panels related in complex ways. We find new candidate genes for important adaptive functions, including immunity and metabolism in under-studied human populations, as well as muscle mass, milk production and tameness in specific bovine breeds. We are also able to pinpoint the emergence of large regions of differentiation due to inversions in the history of Atlantic codfish.

SummarySeveral major migrations and population turnover events during the later Stone Age (after c. 11,000 cal. BP) are believed to have shaped the contemporary population genetic diversity in Eurasia. While the genetic impacts of these migrations have been investigated on regional scales, a detailed understanding of their spatiotemporal dynamics both within and between major geographic regions across Northern Eurasia remains largely elusive. Here, we present the largest shotgun-sequenced genomic dataset from the Stone Age to date, representing 317 primarily Mesolithic and Neolithic individuals from across Eurasia, with associated radiocarbon dates, stable isotope data, and pollen records. Using recent advances, we imputed >1,600 ancient genomes to obtain accurate diploid genotypes, enabling previously unachievable fine-grained population structure inferences. We show that 1) Eurasian Mesolitic hunter-gatherers were more genetically diverse than previously known, and deeply divergent between the west and the east; 2) Hitherto genetically undescribed hunter-gatherers from the Middle Don region contributed significant ancestry to the later Yamnaya steppe pastoralists; 3) The genetic impact of the transition from Mesolithic hunter-gatherers to Neolithic farmers was highly distinct, east and west of a “Great Divide” boundary zone extending from the Black Sea to the Baltic, with large-scale shifts in genetic ancestry to the west. This include an almost complete replacement of hunter-gatherers in Denmark, but no substantial shifts during the same period further to the east; 4) Within-group relatedness changes substantially during the Neolithic transition in the west, where clusters of Neolithic farmer-associated individuals show overall reduced relatedness, while genetic relatedness remains high until ~4,000 BP in the east, consistent with a much longer persistence of smaller localised hunter-gatherer groups; 5) A fast-paced second major genetic transformation beginning around 5,000 BP, with Steppe-related ancestry reaching most parts of Europe within a 1,000 years span. Local Neolithic farmers admixed with incoming pastoralists in most parts of Europe, whereas Scandinavia experienced another near-complete population replacement, with similar dramatic turnover-patterns also evident in western Siberia; 6) Extensive regional differences in the ancestry components related to these early events remain visible to this day, even within countries (research conducted using the UK Biobank resource). Neolithic farmer ancestry is highest in southern and eastern England while Steppe-related ancestry is highest in the Celtic populations of Scotland, Wales, and Cornwall. Overall, our findings show that although the Stone-Age migrations have been important in shaping contemporary genetic diversity in Eurasia, their dynamics and impact were geographically highly heterogeneous.