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Background Fewer than half of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to psychotherapy. Pre-emptively informing patients of their likelihood of responding could be useful as part of a patient-centered treatment decision-support plan. Methods This prospective observational study examined a national sample of 807 patients beginning psychotherapy for MDD at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients completed a self-report survey at baseline and 3-months follow-up (data collected 2018–2020). We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict psychotherapy response at 3 months using baseline survey, administrative, and geospatial variables in a 70% training sample. Model performance was then evaluated in the 30% test sample. Results 32.0% of patients responded to treatment after 3 months. The best ML model had an AUC (SE) of 0.652 (0.038) in the test sample. Among the one-third of patients ranked by the model as most likely to respond, 50.0% in the test sample responded to psychotherapy. In comparison, among the remaining two-thirds of patients, Conclusions Patients with MDD could pre-emptively be informed of their likelihood of responding to psychotherapy using a prediction tool based on self-report data. This tool could meaningfully help patients and providers in shared decision-making, although parallel information about the likelihood of responding to alternative treatments would be needed to inform decision-making across multiple treatments.

Purpose: To investigate the associations of childhood adversities (CAs) with lifetime onset and transitions across suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) among incoming college students. Methods: Web-based self-report surveys administered to 20,842 incoming college students from nine countries (response rate 45.6%) assessed lifetime suicidal ideation, plans and attempts along with seven CAs: parental psychopathology, three types of abuse (emotional, physical, sexual), neglect, bully victimization, and dating violence. Logistic regression estimated individual- and population-level associations using CA operationalizations for type, number, severity, and frequency. Results: Associations of CAs with lifetime ideation and the transition from ideation to plan were best explained by the exact number of CA types (OR range 1.32–52.30 for exactly two to seven CAs). Associations of CAs with a transition to attempts were best explained by the frequency of specific CA types (scaled 0–4). Attempts among ideators with a plan were significantly associated with all seven CAs (OR range 1.16–1.59) and associations remained significant in adjusted analyses with the frequency of sexual abuse (OR = 1.42), dating violence (OR = 1.29), physical abuse (OR = 1.17) and bully victimization (OR = 1.17). Attempts among ideators without plan were significantly associated with frequency of emotional abuse (OR = 1.29) and bully victimization (OR = 1.36), in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Population attributable risk simulations found 63% of ideation and 30–47% of STB transitions associated with CAs. Conclusion: Early-life adversities represent a potentially important driver in explaining lifetime STB among incoming college students. Comprehensive intervention strategies that prevent or reduce the negative effects of CAs may reduce subsequent onset of STB.

Background Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Methods A 2018–2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample. Results In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors. Conclusions Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.

BackgroundThe most common treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD) is antidepressant medication (ADM). Results are reported on frequency of ADM use, reasons for use, and perceived effectiveness of use in general population surveys across 20 countries.MethodsFace-to-face interviews with community samples totaling n = 49 919 respondents in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys asked about ADM use anytime in the prior 12 months in conjunction with validated fully structured diagnostic interviews. Treatment questions were administered independently of diagnoses and asked of all respondents.Results3.1% of respondents reported ADM use within the past 12 months. In high-income countries (HICs), depression (49.2%) and anxiety (36.4%) were the most common reasons for use. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), depression (38.4%) and sleep problems (31.9%) were the most common reasons for use. Prevalence of use was 2–4 times as high in HICs as LMICs across all examined diagnoses. Newer ADMs were proportionally used more often in HICs than LMICs. Across all conditions, ADMs were reported as very effective by 58.8% of users and somewhat effective by an additional 28.3% of users, with both proportions higher in LMICs than HICs. Neither ADM class nor reason for use was a significant predictor of perceived effectiveness.ConclusionADMs are in widespread use and for a variety of conditions including but going beyond depression and anxiety. In a general population sample from multiple LMICs and HICs, ADMs were widely perceived to be either very or somewhat effective by the people who use them.

The Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS®) surveys collect standardized information about patient experiences of care from nationally representative samples of people with Medicare to support consumers’ enrollment choices and enable the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to monitor care quality and incentivize high quality patient-centered care. Since 2007, protocols for data collection, analysis, and reporting have evolved to address expanded Medicare coverage options and a shift from a single survey vendor to a model in which health plans hire approved vendors to administer the survey. During that time, response rates for all types of surveys have declined; increasing effort has gone toward increasing survey participation, especially among people whose preferred language is not English. In this paper, we describe the history, goals, and current use of the Medicare CAHPS surveys. We also summarize key methodological issues, such as sample design, field implementation and data cleaning, adjustment, scoring, and report production. Additionally, we discuss issues that may arise more generally in managing a large, annual national survey that has direct impact on policy, and consider how a long-running survey of this nature may need to evolve to reflect changes in health care delivery and promote standardization in survey administration while maintaining survey content.

Emotion reactivity (ER) and distress intolerance (DI) may be associated with increased suicide attempt (SA) risk among U.S. Army soldiers.In this case-control study, 74 soldiers recently hospitalized for SA (cases) were compared with 133 control soldiers from the same Army installations selected based on either propensity score matching (n = 103) or reported 12-month suicide ideation (SI) (n = 30). Controls were weighted to represent the total Army population at the study sites and the subpopulation of 12-month ideators. Participants completed questionnaires assessing ER, DI, and other psychosocial variables. Logistic regression analyses examined whether ER and DI differentiated SA cases from the general population and from 12-month ideators before and after controlling for additional important risk factors (sociodemographic characteristics, stressors, mental disorders).In univariate analyses, ER differentiated SA cases from both the general population (OR = 2.5[95%CI = 1.7-3.6]) and soldiers with 12-month SI (OR = 2.5[95%CI = 1.3-4.6]). DI also differentiated cases from the general population (OR = 2.9[95%CI = 2.0-4.1]) and 12-month ideators (OR = 1.9[95%CI = 1.1-3.5]). These associations persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, stressors, and mental disorders.Findings provide evidence that higher ER and DI are associated with increased risk of SA among soldiers, even after adjusting for known risk factors. Prospective research with larger samples is needed.

Sarcopenia, an age-related loss of muscle mass and function, may predict adverse outcomes for patients with urological cancers. However, the clinical implications and significance of sarcopenic obesity are not well understood. We systematically reviewed data on the prevalence and prognostic impact of sarcopenic obesity for patients with renal cell carcinoma, urothelial carcinoma and prostate cancer undergoing treatment.We searched EMBASE®, PubMed®/MEDLINE® and Scopus® for relevant original articles and abstracts published between January 2010 and February 2021. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) and progression-free survival. The secondary outcome was the prevalence of sarcopenic obesity.A total of 15 studies comprising 3,866 patients were included. Of the 10 studies that evaluated survival outcomes, the association between sarcopenic obesity and survival was mixed. One of 10 studies showed a significant association of sarcopenic obesity with OS (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.51-0.98; p=0.04). One additional study showed reported a trend for shorter OS (p=0.05) associated with sarcopenic obesity. Others reported that it is an adverse prognostic factor for CSS (HR 5.0, 95% CI 1.4-16.7; p=0.01). All other studies did not demonstrate that sarcopenic obesity was of prognostic relevance with regard to OS, CSS and progression-free survival. Overall, its mean prevalence was 27% (range 11-63).There is considerable heterogeneity in methods used to define sarcopenic obesity in the literature, and current data are limited. Future studies are needed to further understand the relationship of obesity and sarcopenia on the clinical trajectory of patients with urological cancer.

Background Physician responsiveness to patient preferences for depression treatment may improve treatment adherence and clinical outcomes. Objective To examine associations of patient treatment preferences with types of depression treatment received and treatment adherence among Veterans initiating depression treatment. Design Patient self-report surveys at treatment initiation linked to medical records. Setting Veterans Health Administration (VA) clinics nationally, 2018–2020. Participants A total of 2582 patients (76.7% male, mean age 48.7 years, 62.3% Non-Hispanic White) Main Measures Patient self-reported preferences for medication and psychotherapy on 0–10 self-anchoring visual analog scales (0=“completely unwilling”; 10=“completely willing”). Treatment receipt and adherence (refilling medications; attending 3+ psychotherapy sessions) over 3 months. Logistic regression models controlled for socio-demographics and geographic variables. Key Results More patients reported strong preferences (10/10) for psychotherapy than medication (51.2% versus 36.7%, McNemar χ21=175.3, p Conclusions Mismatches between treatment preferences and treatment type received were common and associated with worse treatment adherence for psychotherapy. Future research could examine ways to decrease mismatch between patient preferences and treatments received and potential effects on patient outcomes.

Claims of dramatic increases in clinically significant anxiety and depression early in the COVID-19 pandemic came from online surveys with extremely low or unreported response rates.To examine trend data in a calibrated screening for clinically significant anxiety and depression among adults in the only US government benchmark probability trend survey not disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.This survey study used the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a monthly state-based trend survey conducted over the telephone. Participants were adult respondents in the 50 US states and District of Columbia who were surveyed March to December 2020 compared with the same months in 2017 to 2019.Monthly state COVID-19 death rates.Estimated 30-day prevalence of clinically significant anxiety and depression based on responses to a single BRFSS item calibrated to a score of 6 or greater on the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.84). All percentages are weighted based on BRFSS calibration weights.Overall, there were 1 429 354 respondents, with 1 093 663 in 2017 to 2019 (600 416 [51.1%] women; 87 153 [11.8%] non-Hispanic Black; 826 334 [61.5%] non-Hispanic White; 411 254 [27.8%] with college education; and 543 619 [56.8] employed) and 335 691 in 2020 (182 351 [51.3%] women; 25 517 [11.7%] non-Hispanic Black; 250 333 [60.5%] non-Hispanic White; 130 642 [29.3%] with college education; and 168 921 [54.9%] employed). Median within-state response rates were 45.9% to 49.4% in 2017 to 2019 and 47.9% in 2020. Estimated 30-day prevalence of clinically significant anxiety and depression was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7) percentage points higher in March to December 2020 (12.4%) than March to December 2017 to 2019 (12.1%). This estimated increase was limited, however, to students (2.4 [95% CI, 0.8 to 3.9] percentage points) and the employed (0.9 [95% CI, 0.5 to 1.4] percentage points). Estimated prevalence decreased among the short-term unemployed (-1.8 [95% CI, -3.1 to -0.5] percentage points) and those unable to work (-4.2 [95% CI, -5.3 to -3.2] percentage points), but did not change significantly among the long-term unemployed (-2.1 [95% CI, -4.5 to 0.5] percentage points), homemakers (0.8 [95% CI, -0.3 to 1.9] percentage points), or the retired (0.1 [95% CI, -0.6 to 0.8] percentage points). The increase in anxiety and depression prevalence among employed people was positively associated with the state-month COVID-19 death rate (1.8 [95% CI, 1.2 to 2.5] percentage points when high and 0.0 [95% CI, -0.7 to 0.6] percentage points when low) and was elevated among women compared with men (2.0 [95% CI, 1.4 to 2.5] percentage points vs 0.2 [95% CI, -0.1 to 0.6] percentage points), Non-Hispanic White individuals compared with Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals (1.3 [95% CI, 0.6 to 1.9] percentage points vs 1.1 [95% CI, -0.2 to 2.5] percentage points and 0.7 [95% CI, -0.1 to 1.5] percentage points), and those with college educations compared with less than high school educations (2.5 [95% CI, 1.9 to 3.1] percentage points vs -0.6 [95% CI, -2.7 to 1.4] percentage points).In this survey study, clinically significant US adult anxiety and depression increased less during 2020 than suggested by online surveys. However, this modest aggregate increase could mask more substantial increases in key population segments (eg, first responders) and might have become larger in 2021 and 2022.

OBJECTIVE: Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans (D‐SNPs) were intended to provide better care for beneficiaries eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid through better coordination of these two programs. DATA SOURCES: 671 913 dual eligible (DE) respondents to the 2009‐2019 Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey. STUDY DESIGN: We compared the 2015‐2019 experiences of DE beneficiaries in D‐SNPs relative to fee‐for‐service Medicare (FFS) and non‐SNP Medicare Advantage (MA) using propensity‐score weighted linear regression. Comparisons were made to 2009‐2014. 12 patient experience measures were considered. DATA COLLECTION METHODS: Annual mail survey with telephone follow‐up of non‐respondents. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: More than 65% of DE beneficiaries enrolled in FFS. Of 12 measures, D‐SNP performance was higher than non‐SNP MA on two (P

Racial inequities in clinical performance diminish overall health care system performance; however, quality assessments have rarely incorporated reliable measures of racial inequities. We studied care for more than one million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with cancer to assess the feasibility of calculating reliable practice-level measures of racial inequities in chemotherapy-associated emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to estimate adjusted practice-level Black-White differences in these events and described differences across practices. We calculated reliable inequity measures for 426 and 322 practices, depending on the measure. These practices reflected fewer than 10 percent of practices treating Medicare beneficiaries with chemotherapy, but they treated approximately half of all White and Black Medicare beneficiaries receiving chemotherapy and two-thirds of Black Medicare beneficiaries receiving chemotherapy. Black patients experienced chemotherapy-associated ED visits and hospitalizations at higher rates (54.2 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively) than White patients (45.7 percent and 31.9 percent, respectively). The median within-practice Black-White difference was 8.1 percentage points for chemotherapy-associated ED visits and 2.7 percentage points for chemotherapy-associated hospitalizations. Additional research is needed to identify other reliable measures of racial inequities in health care quality, measure care inequities in smaller practices, and assess whether providing practice-level feedback could improve equity.

Synopsis: We review trend and cohort surveys and administrative data comparing prevalence of mental disorders during, versus, and before the COVID-19 pandemic along with changes in mental health disparities. The best evidence suggests that clinically significant anxiety-depression point prevalence increased by RR=1.3-1.5 during the pandemic compared to before. Although substantial, this level of increase is much less than the implausibly high RR=5.0-8.0 estimates reported in trend studies early in the pandemic based on less appropriate comparisons. Disparities in anxiety-depression prevalence appear to have increased since before the pandemic among people younger than 60 years of age, racial/ethnic minorities, and people with less than a 4-year college degree. Changes in prevalence also occurred during the pandemic, but relative prevalence appears not to have changed substantially over this time based on sex, age, education, or race/ethnicity.

Background Deployment-related experiences might be risk factors for soldier suicides, in which case identification of vulnerable soldiers before deployment could inform preventive efforts. We investigated this possibility by using pre-deployment survey and administrative data in a sample of US Army soldiers to develop a risk model for suicide attempt (SA) during and shortly after deployment. Methods Data came from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers Pre-Post Deployment Survey (PPDS). Soldiers completed a baseline survey shortly before deploying to Afghanistan in 2011–2012. Survey measures were used to predict SAs, defined using administrative and subsequent survey data, through 30 months after deployment. Models were built using penalized regression and ensemble machine learning methods. Results Significant pre-deployment risk factors were history of traumatic brain injury, 9 + mental health treatment visits in the 12 months before deployment, young age, female, previously married, and low relationship quality. Cross-validated AUC of the best penalized and ensemble models were .75–.77. 21.3–40.4% of SAs occurred among the 5–10% of soldiers with highest predicted risk and positive predictive value (PPV) among these high-risk soldiers was 4.4–5.7%. Conclusions SA can be predicted significantly from pre-deployment data, but intervention planning needs to take PPV into consideration.

In 2014, hypertension guidelines for older adults endorsed increased use of fixed-dose combinations, prioritized thiazide diuretics and calcium channel blockers (CCBs) for Black patients, and no longer recommend beta-blockers as first-line therapy.To evaluate older adults' antihypertensive use following guideline changes.Time series analysis.Twenty percent national sample of Medicare Part D beneficiaries aged 66 years and older with hypertension.Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC8) guidelines MAIN MEASURES: Quarterly trends in prevalent and initial antihypertensive use were examined before (2008 to 2013) and after (2014 to 2017) JNC8. Analyses were conducted among all beneficiaries with hypertension, beneficiaries without chronic conditions that might influence antihypertensive selection (hypertension-only cohort), and among Black patients, given race-based guideline recommendations.The number of beneficiaries with hypertension increased from 1,978,494 in 2008 to 2,809,680 in 2017, the proportions using antihypertensives increased from 80.3 to 81.2%, and the proportion using multiple classes and fixed-dose combinations declined (60.8 to 58.1% and 20.7 to 15.1%, respectively, all P.01). Prior to JNC8, the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, and CCBs was increasing. Use of CCBs as initial therapy increased more rapidly following JNC8 (relative change in quarterly trend 0.15% [95% CI, 0.13-0.18%), especially among Black beneficiaries (relative change 0.44% [95% CI, 0.21-0.68%]). Contrary to guidelines, the use of thiazides and combinations as initial therapy consistently decreased in the hypertension-only cohort (13.8 to 8.3% and 25.1 to 15.7% respectively). By 2017, 65.9% of Black patients in the hypertension-only cohort were initiated on recommended first-line or combination therapy compared to 80.3% of non-Black patients.Many older adults, particularly Black patients, continue to be initiated on antihypertensive classes not recommended as first-line, indicating opportunities to improve the effectiveness and equity of hypertension care and potentially reduce antihypertensive regimen complexity.

Adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) are common among civilian trauma survivors and military veterans. These APNS, as traditionally classified, include posttraumatic stress, post-concussion syndrome, depression, and regional or widespread pain. Traditional classifications have come to hamper scientific progress because they artificially fragment APNS into siloed, syndromic diagnoses unmoored to discrete components of brain functioning and studied in isolation. These limitations in classification and ontology slow the discovery of pathophysiologic mechanisms, biobehavioral markers, risk prediction tools, and preventive/treatment interventions. Progress in overcoming these limitations has been challenging, because such progress would require studies that both evaluate a broad spectrum of posttraumatic sequelae (to overcome fragmentation) and also perform in-depth biobehavioral evaluation (to index sequelae to domains of brain function). This article summarizes the methods of the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA (AURORA) Study. AURORA conducts a large scale (n = 5,000 target sample) in-depth assessment of APNS development using a state-of-the-art battery of self-report, neurocognitive, physiologic, digital phenotyping, psychophysical, neuroimaging, and genomic assessments, beginning in the early aftermath of trauma and continuing for one year. The goals of AURORA are to achieve improved phenotypes, prediction tools, and understanding of molecular mechanisms to inform the future development and testing of preventive and treatment interventions.

ImportanceMedicare Advantage health plans covered 37% of beneficiaries in 2018, and coverage increased to 48% in 2022. Whether Medicare Advantage plans provide similar care for patients presenting with specific clinical conditions is unknown.ObjectiveTo compare 30-day mortality and treatment for Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (MI) from 2009 to 2018.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsRetrospective cohort study that included 557 309 participants with ST-segment elevation [acute] MI (STEMI) and 1 670 193 with non–ST-segment elevation [acute] MI (NSTEMI) presenting to US hospitals from 2009-2018 (date of final follow up, December 31, 2019).ExposuresEnrollment in Medicare Advantage vs traditional Medicare.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was adjusted 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included age- and sex-adjusted rates of procedure use (catheterization, revascularization), postdischarge medication prescriptions and adherence, and measures of health system performance (intensive care unit [ICU] admission and 30-day readmissions).ResultsThe study included a total of 2 227 502 participants, and the mean age in 2018 ranged from 76.9 years (Medicare Advantage STEMI) to 79.3 years (traditional Medicare NSTEMI), with similar proportions of female patients in Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare (41.4% vs 41.9% for STEMI in 2018). Enrollment in Medicare Advantage vs traditional Medicare was associated with significantly lower adjusted 30-day mortality rates in 2009 (19.1% vs 20.6% for STEMI; difference, −1.5 percentage points [95% CI, −2.2 to −0.7] and 12.0% vs 12.5% for NSTEMI; difference, −0.5 percentage points [95% CI, −0.9% to −0.1%]). By 2018, mortality had declined in all groups, and there were no longer statically significant differences between Medicare Advantage (17.7%) and traditional Medicare (17.8%) for STEMI (difference, 0.0 percentage points [95% CI, −0.7 to 0.6]) or between Medicare Advantage (10.9%) and traditional Medicare (11.1%) for NSTEMI (difference, −0.2 percentage points [95% CI, −0.4 to 0.1]). By 2018, there was no statistically significant difference in standardized 90-day revascularization rates between Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare. Rates of guideline-recommended medication prescriptions were significantly higher in Medicare Advantage (91.7%) vs traditional Medicare patients (89.0%) who received a statin prescription (difference, 2.7 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 4.2] for 2018 STEMI). Medicare Advantage patients were significantly less likely to be admitted to an ICU than traditional Medicare patients (for 2018 STEMI, 50.3% vs 51.2%; difference, −0.9 percentage points [95% CI, −1.8 to 0.0]) and significantly more likely to be discharged to home rather than to a postacute facility (for 2018 STEMI, 71.5% vs 70.2%; difference, 1.3 percentage points [95% CI, 0.5 to 2.1]). Adjusted 30-day readmission rates were consistently lower in Medicare Advantage than in traditional Medicare (for 2009 STEMI, 13.8% vs 15.2%; difference, −1.3 percentage points [95% CI, −2.0 to −0.6]; and for 2018 STEMI, 11.2% vs 11.9%; difference, 0.6 percentage points [95% CI, −1.5 to 0.0]).Conclusions and RelevanceAmong Medicare beneficiaries with acute MI, enrollment in Medicare Advantage, compared with traditional Medicare, was significantly associated with modestly lower rates of 30-day mortality in 2009, and the difference was no longer statistically significant by 2018. These findings, considered with other outcomes, may provide insight into differences in treatment and outcomes by Medicare insurance type.

The authors sought to identify predictors of imminent suicide attempt (within 30 days) among U.S. Army soldiers following their first documented suicidal ideation.Using administrative data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers, the authors identified 11,178 active-duty Regular Army enlisted soldiers (2006-2009) with medically documented suicidal ideation and no prior medically documented suicide attempts. The authors examined risk factors for suicide attempt within 30 days of first suicidal ideation using logistic regression analyses, including sociodemographic and service-related characteristics, psychiatric diagnoses, physical health care visits, injuries, and history of family violence or crime perpetration or victimization.Among soldiers with first documented suicidal ideation, 830 (7.4%) attempted suicide, 46.3% of whom (N=387) attempted suicide within 30 days (rate, 35.4 per 1,000 soldiers). Following a series of multivariate analyses, the final model identified females (odds ratio=1.3, 95% CI=1.0, 1.8), combat medics (odds ratio=1.6, 95% CI=1.1, 2.2), individuals with an anxiety disorder diagnosis prior to suicidal ideation (odds ratio=1.3, 95% CI=1.0, 1.6), and those who received a sleep disorder diagnosis on the same day as the recorded suicidal ideation (odds ratio=2.3, 95% CI=1.1, 4.6) as being more likely to attempt suicide within 30 days. Black soldiers (odds ratio=0.6, 95% CI=0.4, 0.9) and those who received an anxiety disorder diagnosis on the same day as suicidal ideation (odds ratio=0.7, 95% CI=0.5, 0.9) were less likely.Suicide attempt risk is highest in the first 30 days following ideation diagnosis and is more likely among women, combat medics, and soldiers with an anxiety disorder diagnosis before suicidal ideation and a same-day sleep disorder diagnosis. Black soldiers and those with a same-day anxiety disorder diagnosis were at decreased risk. These factors may help identify soldiers at imminent risk of suicide attempt.

Background Psychiatric comorbidities may complicate depression treatment by being associated with increased role impairments. However, depression symptom severity might account for these associations. Understanding the independent associations of depression severity and comorbidity with impairments could help in treatment planning. This is especially true for depressed Veterans, who have high psychiatric comorbidity rates. Methods 2,610 Veterans beginning major depression treatment at the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) were administered a baseline self-report survey that screened for diverse psychiatric comorbidities and assessed depression severity and role impairments. Logistic and generalized linear regression models estimated univariable and multivariable associations of depression severity and comorbidities with impairments. Population attributable risk proportions (PARPs) estimated the relative importance of depression severity and comorbidities in accounting for role impairments. Results Nearly all patients (97.8%) screened positive for at least one comorbidity and half (49.8%) for 4+ comorbidities. The most common positive screens were for generalized anxiety disorder (80.2%), posttraumatic stress disorder (77.9%), and panic/phobia (77.4%). Depression severity and comorbidities were significantly and additively associated with impairments in multivariable models. Associations were attenuated much less for depression severity than for comorbidities in multivariable versus univariable models. PARPs indicated that 15–60% of role impairments were attributable to depression severity and 5–32% to comorbidities. Limitations The screening scales could have over-estimated comorbidity prevalence. The cross-sectional observational design cannot determine either temporal or causal priorities. Conclusions Although positive screens for psychiatric comorbidity are pervasive among depressed VHA patients, depression severity accounts for most of the associations of these comorbidities with role impairments.

Suicide is a leading cause of death. A substantial proportion of the people who die by suicide come into contact with the health care system in the year before their death. This observation has resulted in the development of numerous suicide prediction tools to help target patients for preventive interventions. However, low sensitivity and low positive predictive value have led critics to argue that these tools have no clinical value. We review these tools and critiques here. We conclude that existing tools are suboptimal and that improvements, if they can be made, will require developers to work with more comprehensive predictor sets, staged screening designs, and advanced statistical analysis methods. We also conclude that although existing suicide prediction tools currently have little clinical value, and in some cases might do more harm than good, an even-handed assessment of the potential value of refined tools of this sort cannot currently be made because such an assessment would depend on evidence that currently does not exist about the effectiveness of preventive interventions. We argue that the only way to resolve this uncertainty is to link future efforts to develop or evaluate suicide prediction tools with concrete questions about specific clinical decisions aimed at reducing suicides and to evaluate the clinical value of these tools in terms of net benefit rather than sensitivity or positive predictive value. We also argue for a focus on the development of individualized treatment rules to help select the right suicide-focused treatments for the right patients at the right times. Challenges will exist in doing this because of the rarity of suicide even among patients considered high-risk, but we offer practical suggestions for how these challenges can be addressed.

Objectives: Comorbidity is a common feature of mental disorders. However, needs assessment surveys focus largely on individual disorders rather than on comorbidity even though the latter is more important for predicting suicidal thoughts and behaviors. In the current report, we take a step beyond this conventional approach by presenting data on the prevalence and correlates (sociodemographic factors, college-related factors, and suicidal thoughts and behaviors) of the main multivariate profiles of common comorbid Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-IV disorders among students participating in the first phase of the World Health Organization World Mental Health International College Student initiative. Method: A web-based mental health survey was administered to first year students in 19 colleges across eight countries (Australia, Belgium, Germany, Mexico, Northern Ireland, South Africa, Spain, United States; 45.5% pooled response rate) to screen for seven common DSM-IV mental disorders: major depression, mania/hypomania, generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, alcohol use disorder, and drug use disorder. We focus on the 14,348 respondents who provided complete data; 38.4% screened positive for at least one 12-month disorder. Results: Multivariate disorder profiles were detected using latent class analysis (LCA). The least common class (C1; 1.9% of students) was made up of students with high comorbidity (four or more disorders, the majority including mania/hypomania). The remaining 12-month cases had profiles of internalizing–externalizing comorbidity (C2; 5.8%), internalizing comorbidity (C3; 14.6%), and pure disorders (C4; 16.1%). The 1.9% of students in C1 had much higher prevalence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors than other students. Specifically, 15.4% of students in C1 made a suicide attempt in the 12 months before the survey compared with 1.3–2.6% of students with disorders in C2–4, 0.2% of students with lifetime disorders but no 12-month disorders (C5), and 0.1% of students with no lifetime disorders (C6). Conclusions: In line with prior research, comorbid mental disorders were common; however, sociodemographic correlates of LCA profiles were modest. The high level of comorbidity underscores the need to develop and test transdiagnostic approaches for treatment in college students.

BACKGROUND: Decades-long efforts to require parity between behavioral and physical health insurance coverage culminated in the comprehensive federal Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between federal parity and changes in mental health care utilization and spending, particularly among high utilizers. RESEARCH DESIGN: Difference-in-differences analyses compared changes before and after exposure to federal parity vs. a comparison group SUBJECTS: Commercially-insured enrollees aged 18–64 with a mental health disorder drawn from 24 states where self-insured employers were newly subject to federal parity in 2010 (exposure group), but small employers were exempt before-and-after parity (comparison group). 11,226 exposure group members were propensity score matched (1:1) to comparison group members, all of whom were continuously enrolled from 1 year pre- to 1–2 years post-policy. MEASURES: Mental health outpatient visits, out-of-pocket spending for these visits, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations. RESULTS: Relative to comparison group members, mean out-of-pocket spending per outpatient mental health visit declined among exposure enrollees by $0.74(1.40,0.07) and $2.03(3.17,0.89) in years 1 and 2 after the policy, respectively. Corresponding annual mental health visits increased by 0.31(0.12,0.51) and 0.59(0.37,0.81) per enrollee. Difference-in-difference changes were larger for the highest baseline quartile mental health care utilizers (Year 2: 0.76 visits per enrollee [0.14,1.38]; relative increase 10.07%) and spenders (Year 2: $−2.28 [−3.76,−0.79]; relative reduction 5.91%) There were no significant difference-in-differences changes in emergency department visits or hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: In 24 states, commercially-insured high utilizers of mental health services experienced modest increases in outpatient mental health visits 2 years post-parity.

Objective Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) does not account for social risk factors in risk adjustment, and this may lead the program to unfairly penalize safety-net hospitals. Our objective was to determine the impact of adjusting for social risk factors on HRRP penalties. Study design Retrospective cohort study. Data sources/study setting Claims data for 2 952 605 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF) or pneumonia from December 2012 to November 2015. Principal findings Poverty, disability, housing instability, residence in a disadvantaged neighborhood, and hospital population from a disadvantaged neighborhood were associated with higher readmission rates. Under current program specifications, safety-net hospitals had higher readmission ratios (AMI, 1.020 vs 0.986 for the most affluent hospitals; pneumonia, 1.031 vs 0.984; and CHF, 1.037 vs 0.977). Adding social factors to risk adjustment cut these differences in half. Over half the safety-net hospitals saw their penalty decline; 4-7.5 percent went from having a penalty to having no penalty. These changes translated into a $17 million reduction in penalties to safety-net hospitals. Conclusions Accounting for social risk can have a major financial impact on safety-net hospitals. Adjustment for these factors could reduce negative unintended consequences of the HRRP.

The tax penalty for noncompliance with the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate is to be eliminated starting in 2019. We investigated the potential impact of this change on enrollees' decisions to purchase insurance and on individual-market premiums. In a survey of enrollees in the individual market in California in 2017, 19 percent reported that they would not have purchased insurance had there been no penalty. We estimated that premiums would increase by 4-7 percent if these enrollees were not in the risk pool. The percentages of enrollees who would forgo insurance were higher among those with lower income and education, Hispanics, and those who had been uninsured in the prior year, relative to the comparison groups. Compared to older enrollees and those with two or more chronic conditions, respectively, younger enrollees and those with no chronic conditions were also more likely to say that they would not have purchased insurance. Eliminating the mandate penalty alone is unlikely to destabilize the California individual market but could erode coverage gains, especially among groups whose members have historically been less likely to be insured.

Understanding health disparity causes is an important first step toward developing policies or interventions to eliminate disparities, but their nature makes identifying and addressing their causes challenging. Potential causal factors are often correlated, making it difficult to distinguish their effects. These factors may exist at different organizational levels (e.g., individual, family, neighborhood), each of which needs to be appropriately conceptualized and measured. The processes that generate health disparities may include complex relationships with feedback loops and dynamic properties that traditional statistical models represent poorly. Because of this complexity, identifying disparities’ causes and remedies requires integrating findings from multiple methodologies. We highlight analytic methods and designs, multilevel approaches, complex systems modeling techniques, and qualitative methods that should be more broadly employed and adapted to advance health disparities research and identify approaches to mitigate them.

OBJECTIVES: To compare use of diabetes medications between beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) and traditional Medicare (TM). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of Medicare enrollment and Part D Event claims during 2015–2016. METHODS: Data came from 1,027,884 TM and 838,420 MA beneficiaries who received at least one prescription for an oral or injectable diabetes medication. After matching MA and TM enrollees by demographic characteristics and geography, we analyzed use of medication overall, choices of first diabetes medication for those new to medication, and patterns of adding medications. RESULTS: Overall and for patients on one, two, or three diabetes medications, use of metformin was higher in MA by about 3 percentage points, but use of newer medication classes was 5.1 percentage points higher in TM overall (21.3% vs. 16.2%). Use of guideline-recommended first-line agents was higher in MA. For those who started metformin first, use of a sulfonylurea as a second medication was 7.8 percentage points higher in MA than TM (61.5% v. 53.7%), while use of medications from newer classes was 7.7 percentage points lower (22.0% v. 29.7%). Mean total spending was $149 higher in TM for those taking one medication and $298 higher for those on two medications. Differences in spending among MA plans were of similar magnitude to the MA-TM differences. CONCLUSIONS: MA enrollees are more likely to be treated with metformin and sulfonylureas and less likely to receive costly newer medications than those in TM, but there also is substantial variation within MA. A limitation of the study is that we could not assess glucose control using HbA(1C) levels.

Introduction: Although religious attendance can act as a protective health factor likely through social support and inherent beliefs, little is known about the relationship between the frequency of religious attendance and ideal cardiovascular health (ICH), particularly in older women, many of whom attend religious activities. Methods: We utilized the Women’s Health Study (WHS) follow-up psychosocial stress cohort (n=24360; mean age=71.8, SD= 5.8 years) to evaluate the cross-sectional relationship between current religious service attendance and ICH, as defined by the American Heart Association 2020 ICH score. Frequency of religious attendance was classified as never, at least once a year, at least once a month, and at least once a week. Results: Compared to women who never attend religious services, women who participate in religious services at least once a week are more likely to be hypertensive and hypercholesterolemic, less likely to be smokers or to use alcohol, less physically active, had lower education levels and more likely to earn < $50,000 annually/household. In age-adjusted models, religious service attendance at least once a month and once a week was associated with a 17% and 36 % higher odds of ICH, respectively. This relationship persisted in models that additionally adjusted for race/ethnicity, education, income, psychological status and social support for women who attended religious services at least once a week [Table]. Conclusion: Among women in the Women’s Health Study, compared to non-attenders women who attended religious services weekly displayed a 30% higher odds of ideal cardiovascular health, despite adjustment for social support and other risk factors. These data suggest that religious attendance may be beneficial to the cardiovascular health of older women via additional mechanisms beyond social support.

To investigate the associations of childhood adversities (CAs) with lifetime onset and transitions across suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) among incoming college students.Web-based self-report surveys administered to 20,842 incoming college students from nine countries (response rate 45.6%) assessed lifetime suicidal ideation, plans and attempts along with seven CAs: parental psychopathology, three types of abuse (emotional, physical, sexual), neglect, bully victimization, and dating violence. Logistic regression estimated individual- and population-level associations using CA operationalizations for type, number, severity, and frequency.Associations of CAs with lifetime ideation and the transition from ideation to plan were best explained by the exact number of CA types (OR range 1.32-52.30 for exactly two to seven CAs). Associations of CAs with a transition to attempts were best explained by the frequency of specific CA types (scaled 0-4). Attempts among ideators with a plan were significantly associated with all seven CAs (OR range 1.16-1.59) and associations remained significant in adjusted analyses with the frequency of sexual abuse (OR = 1.42), dating violence (OR = 1.29), physical abuse (OR = 1.17) and bully victimization (OR = 1.17). Attempts among ideators without plan were significantly associated with frequency of emotional abuse (OR = 1.29) and bully victimization (OR = 1.36), in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Population attributable risk simulations found 63% of ideation and 30-47% of STB transitions associated with CAs.Early-life adversities represent a potentially important driver in explaining lifetime STB among incoming college students. Comprehensive intervention strategies that prevent or reduce the negative effects of CAs may reduce subsequent onset of STB.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: Response rates to patient surveys used to evaluate the quality of care have declined in recent years. We assessed several strategies to improve survey response rates, specifically the use of shorter, simpler, more motivational text as recommended by Dillman (2018) (ie, how completing the survey would help other beneficiaries choose plans) in prenotification and cover letters and streamlining the front‐end screener items that assess survey eligibility. STUDY DESIGN: In the context of the 2018 Medicare Advantage (MA) Disenrollment Reasons Survey, a monthly survey of disenrollees from MA plans, we implemented a three‐arm randomized experiment (using randomized block design) blocked by MA plan. (1) The control arm (N = 43,277) received the standard survey with prenotification and cover letters. (2) Experimental arm 1 (N=2,484) received the standard survey with modified prenotification and cover letters. (3) Experimental arm 2 (N = 2,484) received the standard survey with streamlined screener questions and modified prenotification and cover letters. We used regression modeling to compare response rates by arm, adjusting for person‐level characteristics (age, gender, dual eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid or low‐income supplement eligibility, and rurality as defined by Beale Code) and fixed effects for MA plan. The disenrollment survey protocol consists of a prenotification letter followed by a mailed survey with cover letter; nonrespondents receive a second mailed survey with cover letter. POPULATION STUDIED: Random sample of 48,245 Medicare beneficiaries who voluntarily disenrolled from a Medicare Advantage plan in December 2018 and were mailed a disenrollment reasons survey to complete in February‐March 2019. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Adjusted response rates were 2.3‐2.5 percentage points higher in each experimental arm (33.2% and 33.0%)) than in the standard arm (30.7%). Thus, overall, the experimental arm modifications increased response rates by 2.4 percentage points (95% CI: [1.1‐3.7], (P

Purpose Schools provide access to mental health services for traditionally underserved youth. However, there is variability in the types of school-based services students receive (e.g., school counseling, services in separate classrooms, or schools serving students with psychiatric disorders). Prior research has typically not distinguished among these different types of school-based services. The present study examines sociodemographic characteristics and disorders associated with the types of services received in schools. Methods Data were analyzed from a sample of adolescent–parent pairs in the U.S. National Comorbidity Survey Adolescent Supplement who received school mental health services (N = 1,204). DSM-IV diagnoses were based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview administered to adolescents and questionnaires self-administered to parents. Adolescents (aged 13–18 years) and parents also responded to questions about lifetime school-based mental health service receipt. Results Among those receiving school-based mental health services, almost one-third (29.7%) received services in a separate classroom and almost one-fourth (22.3%) in a separate school. Increased likelihood of lifetime placement in a separate classroom or school was detected among older youth, males, blacks, Latinos, youth with learning disabilities, those whose parents had fewer years of education, and those who received community-based mental health services. Oppositional defiant disorder was associated with increased lifetime placement in a separate school. Conclusions The results advance the evidence base by indicating that racial/ethnic minority youth and those whose parents have fewer years of education were more likely to receive school-based mental health services in separate settings. These results provide more context to studies of school-based mental health service receipt.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals are rapidly increasing efforts to improve the pediatric inpatient experience. However, hospitals often do not know what to target for improvement. To determine what matters most to families, we assessed which aspects of experience have the strongest relationships with parents’ willingness to recommend a hospital. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 17 727 surveys completed from November 2012 to January 2014 by parents of children hospitalized at 69 hospitals in 34 states using the Child Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Survey. Hierarchical logistic regressions predicted the “top box” for willingness to recommend from measures of specific care dimensions (nurse-parent communication, doctor-parent communication, communication about medicines, keeping parents informed about the child’s care, privacy with providers, preparing to leave the hospital, mistakes and concerns, child comfort, cleanliness, and quietness), adjusting for parent-child characteristics. Relative importance was assessed by using partially standardized adjusted odds ratios (aORs). RESULTS: Child comfort (aOR 1.50; 95% confidence interval 1.41–1.60) and nurse-parent communication (aOR 1.50; 95% confidence interval 1.42–1.58) showed the strongest relationships with willingness to recommend, followed by preparing to leave the hospital, doctor-parent communication, and keeping parents informed. Privacy and quietness were not significantly associated with willingness to recommend in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study uncovered highly valued dimensions that are distinct to pediatric care. Hospitals that care for children should consider using dedicated pediatric instruments to measure and track their performance. Improvement efforts should focus on creating an age-appropriate environment, improving the effectiveness of provider interactions, and engaging parents to share their values and concerns.

Persistent suicide ideation (SI) is known to be a risk factor for subsequent suicidal behaviors. Reducing SI persistence among people with a history of SI consequently might be a useful target for preventive intervention; however, basic information is lacking about patterns and predictors of SI persistence. We report preliminary retrospective data on annual SI persistence in a representative sample of 3,501 U.S. Army soldiers with lifetime SI from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Reports about age-of-onset and number of years with SI were used to estimate two definitions of persistence: persistence beyond year-of-onset and proportional annual persistence (i.e., percentage of years with SI since year-of-onset). Results revealed that for 47.8% of respondents with lifetime SI, their SI did not persist beyond the year-of-onset. For the 52.2% whose SI did persist beyond the year-of-onset, the median (interquartile range) proportional annual persistence was 33% (17-67%). Significant predictors of increased persistence were different for respondents with preenlistment SI onset (prior histories of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD], bipolar disorder, and panic disorder) and postenlistment SI onset (male, combat support military occupation specialty, prior histories of ADHD, panic disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder). These predictors of persistence are different from the predictors of SI onset, suggesting that secondary preventive interventions to reduce SI persistence may need to focus on different factors than primary preventive interventions to reduce SI onset. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Rapidly urbanizing areas of Latin America experience elevated but unevenly distributed levels of violence. Extensive research suggests that individual exposure to violence is associated with higher odds of both internalizing (anxiety and mood) and externalizing (substance and intermittent explosive) mental disorders. Less research, however, has focused on how neighborhood-level violence, as an indicator of broader neighborhood contexts, might relate to the mental health of residents, independently of an individual’s personal exposure. We used multilevel analyses to examine associations of neighborhood-level violence with individual-level past-year mental disorders, controlling for individual-level violence exposure. We used data from 7,251 adults nested in 83 neighborhoods within five large Latin American cities as part of the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Accounting for individual-level violence exposure, living in neighborhoods with more violence was associated with significantly elevated odds of individual-level internalizing disorders, but not externalizing disorders. Caution should be exercised when making causal inferences regarding the effects of neighborhood-level violence in the absence of experimental interventions. Nevertheless, neighborhood context, including violence, should be considered in the study of mental disorders. These findings are particularly relevant for rapidly urbanizing areas with high levels of violence, such as Latin America.

Summary Background The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) was a 10 year, multisector, rural development project, initiated in 2005, operating across ten sites in ten sub-Saharan African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In this study, we aimed to estimate the project's impact, target attainment, and on-site spending. Methods In this endline evaluation of the MVP, we retrospectively selected comparison villages that best matched the project villages on possible confounding variables. Cross-sectional survey data on 40 outcomes of interest were collected from both the project and the comparison villages in 2015. Using these data, as well as on-site spending data collected during the project, we estimated project impacts as differences in outcomes between the project and comparison villages; target attainment as differences between project outcomes and prespecified targets; and on-site spending as expenditures reported by communities, donors, governments, and the project. Spending data were not collected in the comparison villages. Findings Averaged across the ten project sites, we found that impact estimates for 30 of 40 outcomes were significant (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] for these outcomes excluded zero) and favoured the project villages. In particular, substantial effects were seen in agriculture and health, in which some outcomes were roughly one SD better in the project villages than in the comparison villages. The project was estimated to have no significant impact on the consumption-based measures of poverty, but a significant favourable impact on an index of asset ownership. Impacts on nutrition and education outcomes were often inconclusive (95% UIs included zero). Averaging across outcomes within categories, the project had significant favourable impacts on agriculture, nutrition, education, child health, maternal health, HIV and malaria, and water and sanitation. A third of the targets were met in the project sites. Total on-site spending decreased from US$132 per person in the first half of the project (of which $66 was from the MVP) to $109 per person in the second half of the project (of which $25 was from the MVP). Interpretation The MVP had favourable impacts on outcomes in all MDG areas, consistent with an integrated rural development approach. The greatest effects were in agriculture and health, suggesting support for the project's emphasis on agriculture and health systems strengthening. The project conclusively met one third of its targets. Funding The Open Society Foundations, the Islamic Development Bank, and the governments of Japan, South Korea, Mali, Senegal, and Uganda.

Public quality reports for Medicare Advantage health plans include 11 measures of patient experiences reported in the annual Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems surveys. Computing summaries at the health plan level (of multiple measures in multiple years) yields an array-structured random variable. To summarize associations among measures and years, we model the variance-covariance matrix governing the plan-level vectors of yearly quality measures as a Kronecker product of an across-measure matrix and an across-year matrix, or a sum of such Kronecker products. This approach extends separable covariance structure to Fay-Herriot models. In addition, we develop linear combinations of Kronecker products similar to principal components for array random variables. To each Kronecker-product term, we apply post hoc analyses suited to the corresponding dimension of the cross-classification: 1-way factor analysis for the across-measure factor and time-series analysis to the across-year factor. These methods draw out key patterns of variation in the quality measures over time and suggest new strategies for reporting quality information to consumers.

Prior research has shown that most known risk factors for suicide attempts in the general population actually predict suicide ideation rather than attempts among ideators. Yet clinical interest in predicting suicide attempts often involves the evaluation of risk among patients with ideation. We examined a number of characteristics of suicidal thoughts hypothesized to predict incident attempts in a retrospective analysis of lifetime ideators (N = 3,916) drawn from a large (N = 29,982), representative sample of United States Army soldiers. The most powerful predictors of first nonfatal lifetime suicide attempt in a multivariate model controlling for previously known predictors (e.g., demographics, mental disorders) were: recent onset of ideation, presence and recent onset of a suicide plan, low controllability of suicidal thoughts, extreme risk-taking or "tempting fate," and failure to answer questions about the characteristics of one's suicidal thoughts. A predictive model using these risk factors had strong accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = .93), with 66.2% of all incident suicide attempts occurring among the 5% of soldiers with highest composite predicted risk. This high concentration of risk in this retrospective study suggests that a useful clinical decision support model could be constructed from prospective data to identify those with highest risk of subsequent suicide attempt. (PsycINFO Database Record

Background: Sexual assault is a global concern with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), one of the common sequelae. Early intervention can help prevent PTSD, making identification of those at high risk for the disorder a priority. Lack of representative sampling of both sexual assault survivors and sexual assaults in prior studies might have reduced the ability to develop accurate prediction models for early identification of high-risk sexual assault survivors. Methods: Data come from 12 face-to-face, cross-sectional surveys of community-dwelling adults conducted in 11 countries. Analysis was based on the data from the 411 women from these surveys for whom sexual assault was the randomly selected lifetime traumatic event (TE). Seven classes of predictors were assessed: socio-demographics, characteristics of the assault, the respondent's retrospective perception that she could have prevented the assault, other prior lifetime TEs, exposure to childhood family adversities and prior mental disorders. Results: Prevalence of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV (DSM-IV) PTSD associated with randomly selected sexual assaults was 20.2%. PTSD was more common for repeated than single-occurrence victimization and positively associated with prior TEs and childhood adversities. Respondent's perception that she could have prevented the assault interacted with history of mental disorder such that it reduced odds of PTSD, but only among women without prior disorders (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1–0.9). The final model estimated that 40.3% of women with PTSD would be found among the 10% with the highest predicted risk. Conclusions: Whether counterfactual preventability cognitions are adaptive may depend on mental health history. Predictive modelling may be useful in targeting high-risk women for preventive interventions. The ESEMeD project is funded by the European Commission (Contracts QLG5-1999-01042; SANCO 2004123, and EAHC 20081308), the Piedmont Region (Italy)), Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain (FIS 00/0028), Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Spain (SAF 2000-158-CE), Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBER CB06/02/0046, RETICS RD06/0011 REM-TAP), and other local agencies and by an unrestricted educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline.

The United States continues to experiment with health care delivery and financing innovations, but relatively little attention is given to the public health system and its capacity for improving health status in the U.S. population at large. The public health system operates as a multisector enterprise in which government agencies work in conjunction with private and voluntary organizations to identify health risks in the population and to mobilize community‐wide actions that prevent and contain these risks. The Affordable Care Act and related health reform initiatives are generating new interest in the question of how best to expand and integrate public health approaches into the larger U.S. health system. The research articles featured in this issue of Health Services Research cluster around two broad topics: how public health agencies can deliver services efficiently and how public health agencies can interact productively with other elements of the health system. The results suggest promising avenues for aligning medical care and public health practices.

Key Points Question Do primary care professional (PCP) patient panels who receive more low-value care rate their health care experiences more favorably? Findings This quality improvement study of 100 743 PCPs with a mean of 258 patients each constructed a composite score of low-value care exposure for each PCP patient panel and estimated its association with patient ratings of health care. With 1 exception (waiting room time), all observed associations between low-value care exposure and health care experience ratings (overall health care, timely access to nonurgent care, timely access to urgent care, personal physician, and interactions with personal physician) were small and/or lacked statistical significance. Meaning This study did not find evidence that more low-value care for a PCP patient panel was associated with more favorable patient ratings of their health care experiences., Importance Patient reviews of health care experiences are increasingly used for public reporting and alternative payment models. Critics have argued that this incentivizes physicians to provide more care, including low-value care, undermining efforts to reduce wasteful practices. Objective To assess associations between rates of low-value service provision to a primary care professional (PCP) patient panel and patients’ ratings of their health care experiences. Design, Setting, and Participants This quality improvement study used Medicare fee-for-service claims from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2014, for a random 20% sample of beneficiaries to identify beneficiaries for whom each of 8 low-value services could be ordered but would be considered unnecessary. The study also used health care experience reports from independently sampled beneficiaries who responded to the 2010-2015 Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) Medicare fee-for-service survey. Statistical analysis was performed from January 1, 2019, to December 9, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes were health care experience ratings from Medicare beneficiaries who responded to the CAHPS survey from 2 domains, namely “Your Health Care in the Last 6 Months” (overall health care, office wait time, timely access to nonurgent care, and timely access to urgent care) and “Your Personal Doctor” (overall personal physician and a composite score for interactions with personal physician). Beneficiaries in both samples were attributed to the PCP with whom they had the most spending. For each PCP, a composite score of low-value service exposure was constructed using the 20% sample; this score represented the adjusted relative propensity of the PCP patient panel to receive low-value care. The association between low-value service exposure and health care experience ratings reported by the CAHPS respondents in the PCP patient panel was estimated using regression analysis. Results The final sample had 100 743 PCPs, with a mean of approximately 258 patients per PCP. Only 1 notable association was found; more low-value care exposure was associated with more frequent reports of having to wait more than 15 minutes after the scheduled time of an appointment (a mean of 0.448 points lower CAHPS score on a 10-point scale for PCP patient panels who received the most low-value care vs the least low-value care). Although some other associations were statistically significant, their magnitudes were substantially smaller than those typically considered meaningful in other CAHPS literature and were inconsistent in direction across levels of low-value service exposure. Conclusions and Relevance This quality improvement study found that more low-value care exposure for a PCP patient panel was not associated with more favorable patient ratings of their health care experiences., This quality improvement study assesses associations between rates of low-value service provision to a primary care professional patient panel and patients’ ratings of their health care experiences.

6533 Background: Equity is now recognized as an essential aspect of health care quality. Racial inequities in clinical performance diminish overall system performance. We assessed the feasibility and reliability of practice-level measures of racial disparities in chemotherapy-associated emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Methods: Using fee-for-service Medicare data, we identified 1,196,970 Black or White fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with cancer receiving chemotherapy in 2016-2019, who were attributed to 5511 oncology practices that treated at least 1 Black and 1 White beneficiary (96.4% of all beneficiaries). We studied two CMS quality measures: chemotherapy associated ED visits and chemotherapy associated hospitalizations. For each outcome, we estimated multi-level models with separate practice-level random intercepts for Black and White patients to quantify practice-level Black-White disparities in adjusted rates of these measures and assess the associations of these rates with the proportion of Black patients in the practice. Results: Overall, 108,177 Black and 966,381 White beneficiaries with cancer were treated at 1321 practices with reliable estimates (reliability ≥70%) of Black-White differences in rates of chemotherapy-associated ED visits; 101,411 Black and 915,895 White beneficiaries were treated at 1,012 practices with reliable estimates of chemotherapy-associated hospitalizations. These practices treated 80% or more of all Black and White beneficiaries; 10% of these practices treated 75% of Black beneficiaries. The median adjusted Black-White rate difference across practices was +8.9% [interquartile interval (IQI) +5.0%, +12.8%; 5th, 95th percentile -1.8 to +19.2%] for chemotherapy associated ED visits and +4.4% [IQI +1.3%, +7.7%; 5th, 95th percentile -3.5% to +13.5%] for chemotherapy associated hospitalizations. Chemotherapy-associated ED visit rates were 3.2 percentage points higher for Black vs White patients (P