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The energy sector's digital transformation brings mutually dependent communication and energy infrastructure, tightening the relationship between the physical and the digital world. Digital twins (DT) are the key concept for this. This paper initially discusses the evolution of the DT concept across various engineering applications before narrowing its focus to the power systems domain. By reviewing different definitions and applications, we present a new definition of DTs specifically tailored to power systems. Based on the proposed definition and extensive deliberations and consultations with distribution system operators, energy traders, and municipalities, we introduce a vision of a standard DT ecosystem architecture that offers services beyond real-time updates and can seamlessly integrate with existing transmission and distribution system operators' processes, while reconciling with concepts such as microgrids and local energy communities based on a system-of-systems view. We also discuss our vision related to the integration of power system DTs into various phases of the system's life cycle, such as long-term planning, emphasizing challenges that remain to be addressed, such as managing measurement and model errors, and uncertainty propagation. Finally, we present our vision of how artificial intelligence and machine learning can enhance several power systems DT modules established in the proposed architecture., Comment: This version of the paper has been accepted for publication in a journal. After publication, it may be removed depending on the journal's requirements for copyright

This paper studies the use of conformal prediction (CP), an emerging probabilistic forecasting method, for day-ahead photovoltaic power predictions to enhance participation in electricity markets. First, machine learning models are used to construct point predictions. Thereafter, several variants of CP are implemented to quantify the uncertainty of those predictions by creating CP intervals and cumulative distribution functions. Optimal quantity bids for the electricity market are estimated using several bidding strategies under uncertainty, namely: trust-the-forecast, worst-case, Newsvendor and expected utility maximization (EUM). Results show that CP in combination with k-nearest neighbors and/or Mondrian binning outperforms its corresponding linear quantile regressors. Using CP in combination with certain bidding strategies can yield high profit with minimal energy imbalance. In concrete, using conformal predictive systems with k-nearest neighbors and Mondrian binning after random forest regression yields the best profit and imbalance regardless of the decision-making strategy. Combining this uncertainty quantification method with the EUM strategy with conditional value at risk (CVaR) can yield up to 93\% of the potential profit with minimal energy imbalance.

In a decentralized household energy system comprised of various devices such as home appliances, electric vehicles, and solar panels, end-users are able to dig deeper into the system's details and further achieve energy sustainability if they are presented with data on the electric energy consumption and production at the granularity of the device. However, many databases in this field are siloed from other domains, including solely information pertaining to energy. This may result in the loss of information (e.g. weather) on each device's energy use. Meanwhile, a large number of these datasets have been extensively used in computational modeling techniques such as machine learning models. While such computational approaches achieve great accuracy and performance by concentrating only on a local view of datasets, model reliability cannot be guaranteed since such models are very vulnerable to data input fluctuations when information omission is taken into account. This article tackles the data isolation issue in the field of smart energy systems by examining Semantic Web methods on top of a household energy system. We offer an ontology-based approach for managing decentralized data at the device-level resolution in a system. As a consequence, the scope of the data associated with each device may easily be expanded in an interoperable manner throughout the Web, and additional information, such as weather, can be obtained from the Web, provided that the data is organized according to W3C standards., Comment: Published in Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks (SEGAN) 2022

While the potential for peer-to-peer electricity trading, where households trade surplus electricity with peers in a local energy market, is rapidly growing, the drivers of participation in this trading scheme have been understudied so far. In particular, there is a dearth of research on the role of non-monetary incentives for trading surplus electricity, despite their potentially important role. This paper presents the first discrete choice experiment conducted with prosumers (i.e. proactive households actively managing their electricity production and consumption) in the Netherlands. Electricity trading preferences are analyzed regarding economic, environmental, social and technological parameters, based on survey data (N = 74). The dimensions most valued by prosumers are the environmental and, to a lesser extent, economic dimensions, highlighting the key motivating roles of environmental factors. Furthermore, a majority of prosumers stated they would provide surplus electricity for free or for non-monetary compensations, especially to energy-poor households. These observed trends were more pronounced among members of energy cooperatives. This suggests that peer-to-peer energy trading can advance a socially just energy transition. Regarding policy recommendations, these findings point to the need for communicating environmental and economic benefits when marketing P2P electricity trading platforms and for technical designs enabling effortless and customizable transactions, Comment: 44 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Energy Policy

In a decentralized household energy system consisting of various devices such as washing machines, heat pumps, and solar panels, understanding the electric energy consumption and production data at the granularity of the device helps end-users be closer to the system and further achieve the sustainability of energy use. However, many datasets in this area are isolated from other domains with records of only energy-related data. This may raise a loss of information (e.g. weather) that is relevant to the energy use of each device. A noticeable disadvantage is that many of those datasets have to be used in computational modeling approaches such as machine learning models, which are vulnerable to the data feed, to advance the understanding of energy consumption and production. Although such computational methods have achieved a high benchmark merely through a local view of datasets, the reusability cannot be firmly guaranteed when the information omission is taken into account. This paper addresses the data isolation problem in the smart energy systems area by exploring Semantic Web techniques on top of a household energy system. We propose an ontology modeling solution for the management of decentralized data at the resolution of a device in the system. As a result, the scope of the data concerning each device can be easily extended to be wider across the web and more information that may be of interest such as weather can be retrieved from the Web if the data are structured by the ontology., Comment: Published in IEEE International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST), 2021

With the inclusion of smart meters, electricity load consumption data can be fetched for individual consumer buildings at high temporal resolutions. Availability of such data has made it possible to study daily load demand profiles of the households. Clustering households based on their demand profiles is one of the primary, yet a key component of such analysis. While many clustering algorithms/frameworks can be deployed to perform clustering, they usually generate very different clusters. In order to identify the best clustering results, various cluster validation indices (CVIs) have been proposed in the literature. However, it has been noticed that different CVIs often recommend different algorithms. This leads to the problem of identifying the most suitable CVI for a given dataset. Responding to the problem, this paper shows how the recommendations of validation indices are influenced by different data characteristics that might be present in a typical residential load demand dataset. Furthermore, the paper identifies the features of data that prefer/prohibit the use of a particular cluster validation index., Comment: Published in IEEE International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST), 2021

The availability of residential electric demand profiles data, enabled by the large-scale deployment of smart metering infrastructure, has made it possible to perform more accurate analysis of electricity consumption patterns. This paper analyses the electric demand profiles of individual households located in the city Amsterdam, the Netherlands. A comprehensive clustering framework is defined to classify households based on their electricity consumption pattern. This framework consists of two main steps, namely a dimensionality reduction step of input electricity consumption data, followed by an unsupervised clustering algorithm of the reduced subspace. While any algorithm, which has been used in the literature for the aforementioned clustering task, can be used for the corresponding step, the more important question is to deduce which particular combination of algorithms is the best for a given dataset and a clustering task. This question is addressed in this paper by proposing a novel objective validation strategy, whose recommendations are then cross-verified by performing subjective validation., Comment: Published in Proc. International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST), 2020

In recent years extensive research has been conducted on the development of different models that enable energy trading between prosumers and consumers due to expected high integration of distributed energy resources. Some of the most researched mechanisms include Peer-to-Peer energy trading, Community Self-Consumption and Transactive Energy Models. Here, we present an exhaustive review of existing research around Local Energy Market integration into distribution systems, in particular benefits and challenges that the power grid can expect from integrating these models. We also present a detailed overview of methods that are used to integrate physical network constraints into the market mechanisms, their advantages, drawbacks, and scaling potential. We find that financial energy transactions do not directly reflect the physical energy flows imposed by the constraints of the installed electrical infrastructure. Therefore, ensuring the stable and reliable delivery of electricity, it is vital to understand the impact of these transactions on the grid infrastructure, e.g., impacts on the control, operation, and planning of electricity distribution systems., Comment: 27 pages, 4 tables, 4 figures

Large-scale deployment of smart meters has made it possible to collect sufficient and high-resolution data of residential electric demand profiles. Clustering analysis of these profiles is important to further analyze and comment on electricity consumption patterns. Although many clustering techniques have been proposed in the literature over the years, it is often noticed that different techniques fit best for different datasets. To identify the most suitable technique, standard clustering validity indices are often used. These indices focus primarily on the intrinsic characteristics of the clustering results. Moreover, different indices often give conflicting recommendations which can only be clarified with heuristics about the dataset and/or the expected cluster structures -- information that is rarely available in practical situations. This paper presents a novel scheme to validate and compare the clustering results objectively. Additionally, the proposed scheme considers all the steps prior to the clustering algorithm, including the pre-processing and dimensionality reduction steps, in order to provide recommendations over the complete framework. Accordingly, the proposed strategy is shown to provide better, unbiased, and uniform recommendations as compared to the standard Clustering Validity Indices., Comment: Published in IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics 2021

Smart energy systems in general, and solar energy analysis in particular, have recently gained increasing interest. This is mainly due to stronger focus on smart energy saving solutions and recent developments in photovoltaic (PV) cells. Various data-driven and machine-learning frameworks are being proposed by the research community. However, these frameworks perform their analysis - and are designed on - specific, heterogeneous and isolated datasets, distributed across different sites and sources, making it hard to compare results and reproduce the analysis on similar data. We propose an approach based on Web (W3C) standards and Linked Data technologies for representing and converting PV and weather records into an Resource Description Framework (RDF) graph-based data format. This format, and the presented approach, is ideal in a data integration scenario where data needs to be converted into homogeneous form and different datasets could be interlinked for distributed analysis., Comment: Published in Proc. International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST), 2019

Owing to the growing concern of global warming and over-dependence on fossil fuels, there has been a huge interest in last years in the deployment of Photovoltaic (PV) systems for generating electricity. The output power of a PV array greatly depends, among other parameters, on solar irradiation. However, solar irradiation has an intermittent nature and suffers from rapid fluctuations. This creates challenges when integrating PV systems in the electricity grid and calls for accurate forecasting methods of solar irradiance. In this paper, we propose a triple exponential-smoothing based forecasting methodology for intra-hour forecasting of the solar irradiance at future lead times. We use time-series data of measured solar irradiance, together with clear-sky solar irradiance, to forecast solar irradiance up-to a period of 20 minutes. The numerical evaluation is performed using 1 year of weather data, collected by a PV outdoor test facility on the roof of an office building in Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. We benchmark our proposed approach with two other common forecasting approaches: persistence forecasting and average forecasting. Results show that the TES method has a better forecasting performance as it can capture the rapid fluctuations of solar irradiance with a fair degree of accuracy., Comment: Published in International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST) 2018