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Accurate forecasting techniques for a stochastic pattern of water demand are essential for any city that faces high variability in climate factors and a shortage of water resources. This study was the first research to assess the impact of climatic factors on urban water demand in Iraq, which is one of the hottest countries in the world. We developed a novel forecasting methodology that includes data preprocessing and an artificial neural network (ANN) model, which we integrated with a recent nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithm [marine predators algorithm (MPA)]. The MPA-ANN algorithm was compared with four nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithms. Nine climatic factors were examined with different scenarios to simulate the monthly stochastic urban water demand over 11 years for Baghdad City, Iraq. The results revealed that (1) precipitation, solar radiation, and dew point temperature are the most relevant factors; (2) the ANN model becomes more accurate when it is used in combination with the MPA; and (3) this methodology can accurately forecast water demand considering the variability in climatic factors. These findings are of considerable significance to water utilities in planning, reviewing, and comparing the availability of freshwater resources and increasing water requests (i.e., adaptation variability of climatic factors). Validerad;2022;Nivå 2;2022-11-09 (johcin)

Accurate streamflow prediction is significant when developing water resource management and planning, forecasting floods, and mitigating flood damage. This research developed a novel methodology that involves data pre-processing and an artificial neural network (ANN) optimised with the coefficient-based particle swarm optimisation and chaotic gravitational search algorithm (CPSOCGSA-ANN) to forecast the monthly water streamflow. The monthly streamflow data of the Tigris River at Amarah City, Iraq, from 2010 to 2020, were used to build and evaluate the suggested methodology. The performance of CPSOCGSA was compared with the slim mold algorithm (SMA) and marine predator algorithm (MPA). The principal findings of this research are that data pre-processing effectively improves the data quality and determines the optimum predictor scenario. The hybrid CPSOCGSA-ANN outperformed both the SMA-ANN and MPA-ANN algorithms. The suggested methodology offered accurate results with a coefficient of determination of 0.91, and 100% of the data were scattered between the agreement limits of the Bland–Altman diagram. The research results represent a further step toward developing hybrid models in hydrology applications. Validerad;2022;Nivå 2;2022-10-04 (hanlid)