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Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.

Statistical tools are crucial for a variety of hydrological applications, whether to model processes and enhance understanding and knowledge or to design infrastructure systems. Given the rapid evolution of statistical methods and the need for a solid theoretical foundation for their correct application, a multidisciplinary community STAtistics in HYdrology Working Group (STAHY-WG) aggregated under the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) umbrella to contribute to this research field. Now, more than 15 years since its inception, this paper summarizes the main achievements of this productive community collaboration in four (of many) branches of statistical hydrology: extreme value analysis, multivariate analysis, time series analysis, and regionalization. The aim is to provide an overview of recent developments, offer practical suggestions (e.g. software packages), and outline future challenges to support scientists and practitioners in their endeavours within the realm of statistical hydrology studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of green roofs, a low-impact development practice, can be an effective means of reducing direct runoff in urban centers. Green roof modeling can enable efficient design by preliminarily grasping the behavior of the green roof system according to specific configurations. In this study, we aimed to find appropriate evapotranspiration and parameter optimization schemes for HYDRUS-1D, a commonly used modeling tool for green roofs. Comparative studies of this sort in the context of green roof runoff modeling have not been conducted previously and are important in guiding users to overcome the difficulties of choosing the right numerical schemes for an accurate prediction of runoff from a green roof. As a study site, the Portland Building Ecoroof in Portland, Oregon, USA, was chosen, as green roof configurations and observed data for climate and runoff were available. From the simulation results of the runoff volume, the Blaney–Criddle method, which was considered an alternative, was found to be appropriate for calculating evapotranspiration from a green roof (R2 = 0.82) relative to the Hargreaves method built in HYDRUS-1D (R2 = 0.46). In addition, this study showed that the optimization method using the harmony search algorithm, which was proposed as an alternative optimizer, was better (R2 = 0.95) than that of the HYDRUS-1D's own optimization module (R2 = 0.82) in calibrating HYDRUS-1D for green roof runoff. The findings are thought to be useful in guiding modelers who are considering using HYDRUS-1D for green roof runoff simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we propose a probabilistic metric, the formative drought rate (FDR), to quantify drought propagation. It is the probability that a meteorological drought in precipitation forms a hydrological drought in streamflow. Drought events were identified based on the standardized precipitation index and streamflow drought index, respectively, at 1‐, 3‐, 6‐ and 12‐month timescales. The method was tested in three river basins in Turkey (Kucuk Menderes, Gediz and Ergene). In each river basin, meteorological stations were coupled with streamflow gauging stations to form pairs of stations depending on their distance from each other and the length of their common record periods. The FDR was calculated across all timescales for each pair of stations. It was found capable to describe the river basin‐specific spatial and temporal variability of drought propagation. As the FDR is defined in the form of probability, it is expected to be a useful metric for quantifying propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought. Thus, it carries a potential for scientific research and practice in water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]