Search

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the CDC issued guidance advising patients and providers to adopt social distancing practices such as home-based infusions (H-BI).We performed a mixed methods evaluation to summarize perceptions, concerns, and experiences with H-BI among all inflammatory bowel disease patients 18-90 years of age who transitioned to home-based infliximab or vedolizumab infusions between March to July 2020 at a tertiary care center. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed using an iterative, inductive thematic approach. Baseline characteristics and outcome on safety, COVID-19 transmission, delays in infusions, and H-BI persistence were collected.Of the 57 participants who transitioned to H-BI, 20 (33%) responded. Four major categories and six major themes related to expectations, experience, perceived safety, and logistical factors were identified. Initial perceptions were mixed, however these resolved. One patient developed COVID-19, one patient experienced an adverse event, 12 (21%) patients experienced an infusion delay, and 6 (11%) patients transitioned from H-BI.Despite mixed initial perceptions, respondents had a positive experience with most respondents planning to continue H-BI after the pandemic resolves. Several real-world actionable barriers were identified related to scheduling, communication between stakeholders, and nursing quality. No major safety concerns were identified.

Background Web-based portals can enhance communication between patients and providers to support IBD self-management and improve care. We aimed to identify portal use patterns of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to inform future web portal-based interventions and portal design. Methods Patients with IBD receiving care at the University of Michigan between 2012 and 2021 were identified. Meta-data from electronic logs of each patient’s most recent year of portal use were abstracted. Portal engagement was characterized in terms of intensity (ie, frequency of use); comprehensiveness (ie, number of portal functions used); and duration (ie, quarters per year of portal use). We used k-means clustering, a machine-learning technique, to identify groupings of portal users defined in terms of engagement features. Results We found 5605 patients with IBD who had accessed their portal account at least once. The average age was 41.2 years (SD 16.7), 3035 (54.2%) were female, and 2214 (39.5%) received immune-targeted therapies. We identified 3 patterns of portal engagement: (1) low intensity users (29.5%); (2) moderate intensity, comprehensive, and sustained users (63.3%); and (3) high intensity, comprehensive, sustained users (7.2%). Patients with more intense, comprehensive, and sustained use of the portal were older, female, with more comorbidities, and were more likely to receive immune-targeted therapies. Conclusion Understanding distinct patterns of portal use can inform portal-based interventions and portal design. Patient portals may be particularly helpful in delivering assistance to those with comorbidities and those receiving immune-targeted therapies—many of whom demonstrate more intense, comprehensive, and sustained portal use.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) affects over 290 million people globally and only 10% have been diagnosed, presenting a severe gap that must be addressed. We developed logistic regression and machine learning (random forest) models to accurately identify patients with HBV, using only easily-obtained demographic data from a population-based data set. APPROACH & RESULTS We identified participants with data on hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), birth year, sex, race/ethnicity, and birthplace from 10 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2018) and divided them into two cohorts: training (cycles 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10; n = 39,119) and validation (cycles 1, 4, 7, 9; n = 21,569). We then developed and tested our two models. The overall cohort was 49.2% male, 39.7% White, 23.2% Black, 29.6% Hispanic, and 7.5% Asian/Other, with a median birth year of 1973. In multivariable logistic regression, the following factors were associated with HBV infection: birth year 1991 or after (adjusted OR [aOR] of 0.28, P < 0.001), male sex (aOR 1.49, P = 0.0080), Black and Asian/Other vs. White (aOR 5.23 and 9.13, P < 0.001 for both), and being United States-born (vs. foreign-born) (aOR 0.14, P < 0.001). We found that the machine learning model consistently outperformed the logistic regression model, with higher AUROC values (0.83 vs. 0.75 in validation cohort, P < 0.001) and better differentiation of high and low risk individuals. CONCLUSIONS Our machine learning model provides a simple, targeted approach to HBV screening, using only easily-obtained demographic data.

The large amount of data on COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy presents a unique opportunity to better understand COVID-19 vaccination uptake. However, the utility of this data is unclear, particularly, how representative the surveys are of general populations; how easy the data is to use; and how valid the outcome (intent to be vaccinated) is. We explore this in the World Bank’s High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS), which were conducted longitudinally in over 50 countries between 2020 and 2021. A subset of the HFPS contained questions on vaccination hesitancy. We compared the demographic results from four surveys against the most recent census to determine representativeness of sample; and vaccination intent/actual vaccination against government reported vaccination rates. While the surveys were generally representative of population sizes and rural/urban split, they tended to over-sample men and older people. The surveys also omitted several key indicators. We also found that self-reported vaccination was higher than actual vaccination rates. As such, it is important to consider challenges in the data. It is also important to consider the ease of data use. However, even when these challenges arise there are still opportunities for meaningful use of the data.

Background Factors influencing the health of populations are interdisciplinary. However, datasets which measure health outcomes often lack disciplinary breath. Data on health outcomes can be combined with datasets on other factors, such as political violence or development. However, this is difficult, due to different levels of geographic support; differing dataset formats and structures; differences in sampling procedures and wording; and the stability of temporal trends. We present a computational package to combine spatially misaligned datasets to analyze multi-dimensional factors in health outcomes. Methods We used data from the World Bank’s High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) from Kenya, Indonesia, and Malawi. These data were curated and combined with data on political violence, electoral competitiveness, and economic development. Using the Sub-National Geospatial Data Archive (SUNGEO) system, the combined data were then analyzed to determine 1) stability of vaccination preferences (in Indonesia) and 2) the association between the aforementioned factors on vaccination preferences using a stochastic process model (Markov Chain) with two states, being vaccine willing and vaccine hesitant (in all three countries). Results In Indonesia, vaccine-acceptance is more persistent than vaccine-hesitancy from round to round: the probability of staying acceptant was 0.97, whereas the probability of staying hesitant was 0.67. In Indonesia and Kenya, decreased political violence associated with decreased levels of vaccination hesitancy (-16 and -23 percentage points difference (ppd) respectively); though no significant association was seen in Malawi. Similarly, in Indonesia and Kenya (though not Malawi), increased electoral competitiveness was associated with decreased levels of vaccination hesitancy (-30 and -17ppd respectively). Increased economic development was also associated with decreased vaccination hesitancy in Indonesia and Kenya. Conclusion It is possible to combine spatially misaligned and incompatible datasets. As an exemplar, we found that vaccination hesitancy was aligned with political violence and electoral uncompetitiveness - compatible with past results that vaccination hesitancy was associated with government distrust. We recommend that either work in governmental institutions be strengthened through the promotion of non-violent, democratic elections; or that vaccination be separated from government.

Inadequate bowel preparation undermines the quality of colonoscopy, but patients likely to be affected are difficult to identify beforehand. This study aimed to develop, validate, and compare prediction models for bowel preparation inadequacy using conventional logistic regression (LR) and random forest machine learning (RFML). We created a retrospective cohort of patients who underwent outpatient colonoscopy at a single VA medical center between January 2012 and October 2015. Candidate predictor variables were chosen after a literature review. We extracted all available predictor variables from the electronic medical record, and bowel preparation from the endoscopy database. The data were split into 70% training and 30% validation sets. Multivariable LR and RFML were used to predict preparation inadequacy as a dichotomous outcome. The cohort included 6,885 Veterans, of whom 964 (14%) had inadequate preparation. Using LR, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the validation cohort was 0.66 (95% CI 0.62, 0.69) and the Brier score, in which a lower score indicates better performance, was 0.11. Using RFML, the AUC for the validation cohort was 0.61 (95% CI 0.58, 0.65) and the Brier score was 0.12. LR and RFML had similar performance in predicting bowel preparation, which was modest and likely insufficient for use in practice. Future research is needed to identify additional predictor variables and to test other machine learning algorithms. At present, endoscopy units should focus on universal strategies to enhance preparation adequacy.

Gastroenterology has been an early leader in bridging the gap between artificial intelligence (AI) model development and clinical trial validation, and in recent years we have seen the publication of several randomized clinical trials examining the role of AI in gastroenterology. As AI applications for clinical medicine advance rapidly, there is a clear need for guidance surrounding AI-specific study design, evaluation, comparison, analysis and reporting of results. Several initiatives are in the publication or pre-publication phase including AI-specific amendments to minimum reporting guidelines for clinical trials, society task force initiatives aimed at priority use cases and research priorities, and minimum reporting guidelines that guide the reporting of clinical prediction models. In this paper, we examine applications of AI in clinical trials and discuss elements of newly published AI-specific extensions to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials and Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials statements that guide clinical trial reporting and development. We then review AI applications at the pre-trial level in both endoscopy and other subfields of gastroenterology and explore areas where further guidance is needed to supplement the current guidance available at the pre-trial level.

Background Although imaging, endoscopy, and inflammatory biomarkers are associated with future Crohn disease (CD) outcomes, common laboratory studies may also provide prognostic opportunities. We evaluated machine learning models incorporating routinely collected laboratory studies to predict surgical outcomes in U.S. Veterans with CD. Methods Adults with CD from a Veterans Health Administration, Veterans Integrated Service Networks (VISN) 10 cohort examined between 2001 and 2015 were used for analysis. Patient demographics, medication use, and longitudinal laboratory values were used to model future surgical outcomes within 1 year. Specifically, data at the time of prediction combined with historical laboratory data characteristics, described as slope, distribution statistics, fluctuation, and linear trend of laboratory values, were considered and principal component analysis transformations were performed to reduce the dimensionality. Lasso regularized logistic regression was used to select features and construct prediction models, with performance assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic using 10-fold cross-validation. Results We included 4950 observations from 2809 unique patients, among whom 256 had surgery, for modeling. Our optimized model achieved a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.78 (SD, 0.002). Anti-tumor necrosis factor use was associated with a lower probability of surgery within 1 year and was the most influential predictor in the model, and corticosteroid use was associated with a higher probability of surgery. Among the laboratory variables, high platelet counts, high mean cell hemoglobin concentrations, low albumin levels, and low blood urea nitrogen values were identified as having an elevated influence and association with future surgery. Conclusions Using machine learning methods that incorporate current and historical data can predict the future risk of CD surgery.

Background Self-reported tobacco pack-year history plays a large role in decisions about low-dose CT screening for lung cancer, yet is challenging to measure accurately. Research Question To what extent does random measurement error in pack-year information impact screening decisions and screening effectiveness? Study Design and Methods Retrospective cohort study of 10,449 patients with pack-year history documented at least twice between October 2013 and July 2017 across 8 academic Veterans Affairs sites. Outcome measures included (1) observed reliability of pack-year information based on all repeat measures for the study population and (2) each person’s statistically “true” pack-year information based on best linear unbiased predictor from a multilevel linear random effects model. To examine how unreliability leads to misclassification of screening eligibility and inaccuracy in estimating lung cancer risk, we simulated pack-year observations for each person, first comparing simulated pack-year and lung cancer risk values with true values, then comparing outcomes when basing screening decisions on unreliable pack-year information vs true information. Results Reliability of assessing pack-year information in routine practice varied across sites. Thus, we examined the clinical impact of two different levels of reliability, based on the range of intraclass correlation coefficients observed. Using a ≥ 30-pack-year threshold led to a high rate of eligibility misclassifications (48.1% misclassified with higher reliability pack-year information and 60.7% misclassified with lower reliability information). However, using a lung cancer risk threshold leads to fewer misclassifications (47.3%-49.7% misclassified when using lower reliability pack-year information) and maintains screening effectiveness better when using unreliable pack-year information. Interpretation Random error in real-world pack-year assessments leads to a substantial rate of misclassifying who should be offered CT screening if a ≥ 30-pack-year criterion is used. However, using a lung cancer risk threshold mitigates the impact of unreliable pack-year information. Decision-makers concerned about the impact of unreliable pack-year information should consider using risk-based approaches to CT screening.

Our objective was to review and exemplify how selected applications of artificial intelligence (AI) might facilitate and improve inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) care and to identify gaps for future work in this field. IBD is highly complex and associated with significant variation in care and outcomes. The application of AI to IBD has the potential to reduce variation in healthcare delivery and improve quality of care. AI refers to the ability of machines to mimic human intelligence. The range of AI’s ability to perform tasks that would normally require human intelligence varies from prediction to complex decision-making that more closely resembles human thought. Clinical applications of AI have been applied to study pathogenesis, diagnosis, and patient prognosis in IBD. Despite these advancements, AI in IBD is in its early development and has tremendous potential to transform future care.

Although management of inflammatory bowel disease follows a similar approach for all adults, there are certain characteristics making its treatment more challenging in older patients. The advent of novel medical treatments has changed the paradigm of inflammatory bowel disease, with an increasing focus on preventing disease progression in addition to controlling symptoms. The safety of these therapies in the elderly needs to be considered. Management of inflammatory bowel disease in the elderly is confounded by comorbidities that can increase the risk of medication or surgical complications; polypharmacy and altered pharmacokinetics also increase the risk of drug-drug interactions and adverse events.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment can significantly reduce the risk of liver-related mortality; however, many patients remain unaware of their infection in clinical practice. The aim of this study is to compare the effectiveness of inreach, with and without mailed outreach, to increase HCV screening and follow-up in a large, difficult-to-reach patient population. METHODS: We conducted a pragmatic randomized clinical trial from August 2018 to May 2019 in a large safety-net health system. Patients born between 1945 and 1965 were randomly assigned (1:1) to inreach with an electronic health record reminder to providers (n = 6,195) or inreach plus mailed HCV screening outreach (n = 6,191) to complete HCV antibody screening. Outreach also included processes to promote HCV RNA testing among those with a positive HCV antibody and linkage to care among those with positive HCV RNA. The primary outcome was completion of HCV antibody testing within 3 months of randomization (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03706742). RESULTS: We included 12,386 eligible patients (median age 60 years; 46.5% Hispanic, 33.0% Black, and 16.0% White). In intent-to-treat analyses, HCV screening completion was significantly higher among inreach-plus-outreach patients than inreach-alone patients at 3 months (14.6% vs 7.4%, P < 0.001) and 6 months (17.4% vs 9.8%, P < 0.001) after randomization. Among those who completed HCV screening within 6 months, a higher proportion of inreach-plus-outreach patients with positive antibody results completed RNA testing within 3 months than inreach-alone patients (81.1% vs 57.1%, respectively, P = 0.02); however, linkage to care within 3 months of HCV infection confirmation did not significantly differ between the 2 groups (48.1% vs 75.0%, respectively, P = 0.24). DISCUSSION: Among difficult-to-reach patients, a combination of inreach and mailed outreach significantly increased HCV screening compared with inreach alone. However, HCV screening completion in both arms remained low, highlighting a need for more intensive interventions.

BACKGROUND & AIMSAcute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a life-threatening presentation of ulcerative colitis requiring prompt treatment. Infliximab (IFX) rescue therapy can prevent colectomy in patients with ASUC.METHODSWe performed a cohort study of adult patients hospitalized with ASUC between 01/2014 – 02/2021 who received infliximab rescue therapy. Using multivariable logistic regression, baseline and longitudinal laboratory predictors of colectomy within 90 days of index hospitalization were identified and used to develop a risk prediction model and prognostic scoring system to identifying patients at risk for colectomy. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) analysis.RESULTS166 patients with ASUC who received infliximab rescue therapy were identified. Overall, 24.7% (n=41) underwent colectomy within 90 days. Multivariate analysis revealed that colectomy within 90 days could be predicted by having a calculated IFX clearance of >53L/d (OR 2.28, 95% CI 0.99, 5.22), a day 0 absolute C-reactive protein (CRP) > 91mg/L (OR 3.49, 95% CI 1.58 to 8.08), a decrease in CRP of < 43% from day 0 to day 3 (OR 4.13, 95% CI 1.84 to 9.94), and a decrease in CRP of < 9% from the day of IFX administration to one day post-IFX administration (OR 4.20, 95% CI 1.74 to 10.4). Using these predictors, two highly accurate prognostic scoring system were developed to identify patients at risk for requiring colectomy both prior to administering infliximab (AUC 0.76) and after administer infliximab rescue therapy (AUC 0.81).CONCLUSIONWe identified important baseline and longitudinal laboratory predictors of colectomy within 90-days among patients with ASUC receiving infliximab rescue therapy and developed accurate prognostic scores to determine risk of colectomy. These scores can be used risk-stratify patients and facilitate personalized management.

Studies suggest that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) may contribute to inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) exacerbations. We examined whether variation in the likelihood of IBD exacerbations is attributable to NSAID.In a cohort of patients with IBD (2004-2015), we used 3 analytic methods to examine the likelihood of an exacerbation after an NSAID exposure. First, we matched patients by propensity for NSAID use and examined the association between NSAID exposure and IBD exacerbation using an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. To assess for residual confounding, we estimated a previous event rate ratio and used a self-controlled case series analysis to further explore the relationship between NSAID and IBD exacerbations.We identified 15,705 (44.8%) and 19,326 (55.2%) IBD patients with and without an NSAID exposure, respectively. Findings from the Cox proportional hazards model suggested an association between NSAID and IBD exacerbation (hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.33). However, the likelihood of an IBD exacerbation in the NSAID-exposed arm preceding NSAID exposure was similar (hazard ratio 1.30; 95% confidence interval 1.21-1.39). A self-controlled case series analysis of 3,968 patients who had both an NSAID exposure and IBD exacerbation demonstrated similar exacerbation rates in the 1 year preceding exposure, 2-6 weeks postexposure, and 6 weeks to 6 months postexposure, but a higher incidence in 0-2 weeks postexposure, suggesting potential confounding by reverse causality.While we see an association between NSAID and IBD exacerbations using traditional methods, further analysis suggests this may be secondary to residual bias. These findings may reassure patients and clinicians considering NSAID as a nonopioid pain management option.

Clear communication of statistical approaches can ensure healthcare research is well understood, reduce major errors and promote the advancement of science. Yet in contrast to the increasing complexity of data and analyses, published methods sections are at times insufficient for describing necessary details. Therefore, ensuring the quality, transparency and reproducibility of statistical approaches in healthcare research is essential.1 2 Such concerns are not just theoretical and have direct implications for research in the quality and safety field. For example, the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program was instituted in 2012 by the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and imposed financial penalties on hospitals with high readmission rates. Subsequent studies sought to determine the extent to which this programme was successful in reducing readmissions without promoting unintended consequences, such as increased mortality. Clearly defining the success or failure of this programme is essential, but in 2018 two prominent articles using the same CMS data set presented opposing results.3 4 These conflicts are undoubtedly due to differences in analytical choices, but specific differences are challenging to reconcile given statistical code was unavailable to readers. In another recent example, a major article was retracted due to the discovery of a statistical coding error that reversed the categorisation of treatment and control groups.5 This clinical trial examined a support programme for hospitalised patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, originally reporting a lower risk of hospitalisation and emergency department visits, but in actuality demonstrating the support programme was associated with harm. Both cases demonstrate how better practices with statistical coding sharing at the time of publication may improve the quality of research. While the utility of statistical code sharing may seem self-evident, it occurs more infrequently than one would expect.2 We believe a principal barrier to statistical code sharing is …

Background and aims Several major factors limit our understanding of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). First, human HCCs are infrequently biopsied for diagnosis and thus are not often biologically interrogated. Second, HCC initiation and progression are strongly influenced by the cirrhotic microenvironment, and the exact contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic tumor factors are unclear. A powerful approach to examine the personalized biology of liver cancers and the influence of host tissues is with patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models. In Asia, HCCs from patients with hepatitis B virus have been efficiently converted into PDXs, but few parallel efforts from the west have been reported. Approach and results In a large-scale analysis, we implanted 93 HCCs and 8 cholangiocarcinomas (CCAs) to systematically analyze host factors and to define an optimized platform for PDX development from both surgical and biopsy samples. NOD Scid IL-2Rγ-/- (NSG) mice that had undergone partial hepatectomy (PHx) represented the best combination of engraftability, growth, and passageability, but overall rates were low and indicative of a unique intrinsic biology for HCCs in the United States. PDX models preserved the histology and genetic features of parental tumors, and ultimately, eight models were usable for preclinical studies. Intriguingly, HCC PDXs were differentially sensitive to regorafenib and sorafenib, and CCA PDXs were also highly sensitive to regorafenib. Conclusions PDX models functionalize early and advanced stage HCCs and revealed unique biological features of liver cancers from the United States.

Background Massive amounts of patient data are captured daily in electronic medical records (EMR). Utilizing the power of such large data may help identify disease associations and generate hypotheses that can lead to a better understanding of disease associations and mechanisms. We aimed to comprehensively identify and validate associations between inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and concurrent comorbid diagnoses. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study using EMR data collected between 1986 and 2009 at a large tertiary referral center to identify associations with a diagnosis of IBD. The resulting associations were externally validated using the Truven MarketScan database, a large nationwide dataset of private insurance claims. Results A total of 6225 IBD patients and 31 125 non-IBD controls identified using EMR data were used to abstract 41 comorbid diagnoses associated with an IBD diagnosis. The strongest associations included Clostridiodes difficile infection, pyoderma gangrenosum, parametritis, pernicious anemia, erythema nodosum, and cytomegalovirus infection. Two IBD association clusters were found, including diagnoses of nerve conduction abnormalities and nonspecific inflammatory conditions of organs outside the gut. These associations were validated in a national cohort of 80 907 patients with IBD and 404 535 age- and sex-matched controls. Conclusion We leveraged a big data approach to identify several associations between IBD and concurrent comorbid diagnoses. EMR and big data provide the opportunity to explore disease associations with large sample sizes. Further studies are warranted to refine the characterization of these associations and evaluate their usefulness for increasing our understanding of disease associations and mechanisms.

Background & Aims Guidelines suggest endoscopic screening of individuals who are at increased risk for Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Tools based on clinical factors are available for identifying patients at risk, but only some have been validated. We aimed to compare and validate available tools. Methods We performed a prospective study of 1241 patients, ages 40 to 79 years, presenting either for their first esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) or their first endoscopic therapy of early neoplastic BE, from April 2015 through June 2018. We calculated risk scores for 6 previously published tools (the Gerson, Locke, Thrift, Michigan BE pREdiction Tool [M-BERET], Nord-Trondelag Health Study [HUNT], and Kunzmann tools). We also investigated the accuracy of frequency and duration of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), using data from a randomly selected 50% of patients undergoing their first EGD. We compared the ability of all these tools to discriminate patients with BE and early neoplasia from patients without BE, using findings from endoscopy as the reference standard. Results BE was detected in 81 of 1152 patients during their first EGD (7.0%). GERD symptoms alone identified patients with BE with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) of 0.579. All of the tools were more accurate in identifying patients with BE than the frequency and duration of GERD (AuROC for GERD, 0.579 vs range for other tools, 0.660–0.695), and predicted risk correlated well with observed risk (calibration). The AUROCs of the HUNT tool (0.796), the M-BERET (0.773), and the Kunzmann tool (0.763) were comparable in discriminating between patients with early neoplasia (n = 94) vs no BE. Each tool was more accurate in discriminating BE with early neoplasia than GERD frequency and duration alone (AuROC, 0.667; P Conclusions The HUNT, M-BERET, and Kunzmann tools identify patients with BE with AuROC values ranging from 0.665 to 0.695, and discriminate patients with early neoplasia from patients without BE with AuROC values ranging from 0.763 to 0.796. These tools are more accurate than frequency and duration of GERD in identifying individuals at risk for neoplastic BE.

Background 5-aminosalicylate (5-ASA) medications have a long history of use for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease and continue to be widely prescribed today. The effectiveness of 5-ASAs in ulcerative colitis is clear; however, studies have shown little benefit for induction or maintenance treatment of Crohn disease (CD). We aimed to quantify usage and examine trends in 5-ASA prescription rates in patients with CD. Methods Using a retrospective design, we queried a national database of commercially insured patients (Truven-Health databases) between 2009 and 2014 to identify patients with CD aged 18 to 65 years. Prescription rates for 5-ASA medications including sulfasalazine, mesalamine, olsalazine, and balsalazide were calculated for each calendar year. Regression models were used to examine year-to-year trends in prescription rates and identify patient factors associated with 5-ASA use. Results We identified 132,804 patients with CD, of whom 37.3% (n = 49,529) received a 5-ASA prescription during the study period. From 2009 to 2014, the overall prescription rates of 5-ASAs declined from 42.9% to 30.0% (P < 0.001). Patient factors independently associated with 5-ASA use included younger age, male sex, multimorbidity, and a health maintenance organization insurance plan, while controlling for the region of residence. Conclusions About 1 in 3 privately insured patients with CD received 5-ASA prescriptions despite their questionable effectiveness; however, in an encouraging trend, prescription rates significantly decreased from 2009 to 2014. This high prescription rate may reflect a gap in providers’ knowledge regarding the available evidence—an opportunity for cost savings with improved health care delivery.

BackgroundIn response to the development of highly effective but expensive new medications, policymakers, payors, and health systems are considering novel and pragmatic ways to provide these medications to patients. One approach is to target these treatments to those most likely to benefit. However, to maximize the fairness of these policies, and the acceptance of their implementation, the values and beliefs of patients should be considered. The provision of treatments for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in the resource-constrained context of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) offered a real-world example of this situation, providing the opportunity to test the value of using Democratic Deliberation (DD) methods to solicit the informed opinions of laypeople on this complex issue.MethodsWe recruited Veterans (n = 30) from the VHA to attend a DD session. Following educational presentations from content experts, participants engaged in facilitated small group discussions to: 1) identify strategies to overcome CHC treatment barriers and 2) evaluate, vote on, and modify/improve two CHC treatment policies – “first come, first served” (FCFS) and “sickest first” (SF). We used transcripts and facilitators’ notes to identify key themes from the small group discussions. Additionally, participants completed pre- and post-DD surveys.ResultsMost participants endorsed the SF policy over the FCFS policy, emphasizing the ethical and medical appropriateness of treating the sickest first. Concerns about SF centered on the difficulty of implementation (e.g., how is “sickest” determined?) and unfairness to other Veterans. Proposed modifications focused on: 1) the need to consider additional health factors, 2) taking behavior and lifestyle into account, 3) offering education and support, 4) improving access, and 5) facilitating better decision-making.ConclusionsDD offered a robust and useful method for addressing the allocation of the scarce resource of CHC treatment. Participants were able to develop a modified version of the SF policy and offered diverse recommendations to promote fairness and improve quality of care for Veterans. DD is an effective approach for incorporating patient preferences and gaining valuable insights for critical healthcare policy decisions in resource-limited environments.

Achieving practice change can be challenging when guidelines shift from a selective risk-based strategy to a broader population health strategy, as occurred for hepatitis C (HCV) screening (2012-2013). We aimed to evaluate patient and provider barriers that contributed to suboptimal HCV screening and linkage-to-care rates after implementation of an intervention to improve HCV screening and linkage-to-care processes in a large, public integrated healthcare system following the guidelines change. As part of a mixed-methods study, we collected data through patient surveys (n = 159), focus groups (n = 9) and structured observation of providers and staff (n = 9). We used these findings to then inform domains for the second phase, which consisted of semi-structured interviews with patients across the screening-treatment continuum (n = 24) and providers and staff at primary care and hepatology clinics (n = 21). We transcribed and thematically analysed interviews using an integrated inductive and deductive framework. We identified lack of clarity about treatment cost, treatment complications and likelihood of cure as ongoing patient-level barriers to screening and linkage to care. Provider-level barriers included scepticism about establishing HCV screening as a quality metric given competing clinical priorities, particularly for patients with multiple comorbidities. However, most felt positively about adding HCV as a quality metric to enhance HCV screening and linkage to care. Provider engagement yielded suggestions for process improvements that resulted in increased stakeholder buy-in and real-time enhancements to the HCV screening process intervention. Systematic data collection at baseline and during practice change implementation may facilitate adoption and adaptation to improve HCV screening guideline implementation. Findings identified several key opportunities and lessons to enhance the impact of practice change interventions to improve HCV screening and treatment delivery.

BACKGROUND: Safety of anti-tumour necrosis factor-α (TNFα) therapy in people with a history of cancer and with an immune-mediated disease is unknown. We aimed to assess the risk of recurrence of initial cancer or development of a new primary cancer after treatment with anti-TNFα therapy.METHODS: In this Danish, population-based cohort study we recruited adults (≥18 years) with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), rheumatoid arthritis, or psoriasis and a primary cancer diagnosed between Jan 1, 1999 and Dec 31, 2016. Patients were recruited from the prospectively recorded Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Cancer Registry. Participants were matched 1:10 between the treatment group who received anti-TNFα therapy and the control group (no anti-TNFα therapy) and we excluded individuals with a cancer diagnosed before their first anti-TNFα treatment (or before matching date for controls), individuals diagnosed with IBD, rheumatoid arthritis, or psoriasis after anti-TNFα initiation (or respective match date for controls), and individuals who received anti-TNFα with fewer than five matched controls. Using adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated the primary outcome of development of recurrent or new primary cancer in patients who received anti-TNFα therapy compared with patients who did not receive this therapy, matched by sex, immune-mediated disease type, cancer type, and time from initial cancer diagnosis to first anti-TNFα registration.FINDINGS: Overall, 25 738 patients with immune-mediated disease and a history of cancer were identified. 434 patients who received anti-TNFα therapy after their initial cancer were matched to 4328 patients in the control group. During 18 752 person-years (median 5·6 years [IQR 2·8-7·9]) of follow up, 635 individuals developed recurrent or new primary cancer, 72 of whom had received anti-TNFα therapy and 563 of whom were in the control group. The median time between anti-TNFα treatment and recurrent or new primary cancer diagnosis was 2·8 years (IQR 1·7-5·4). The incidence of recurrent or new primary cancer development was 30·3 cases (95% CI 24·0-38·2) per 1000 person-years in the anti-TNFα treatment group and 34·4 cases (31·7-37·3) per 1000 person-years in the control group, yielding an adjusted hazard ratio of 0·82 (95% CI 0·61-1·11).INTERPRETATION: Use of anti-TNFα therapy was not associated with recurrent or new primary cancer development in patients with previous cancer. Timing of anti-TNFα therapy after an initial cancer diagnosis did not influence recurrent or new primary cancer development. This observation might guide clinical decision making among providers treating immune-mediated diseases with anti-TNFα medications.FUNDING: None.

Summary Background Although rectal indometacin 100 mg is effective in reducing the frequency and severity of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in high-risk patients, the optimal dose is unknown, and pancreatitis incidence remains high. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of two dose regimens of rectal indometacin on the frequency and severity of pancreatitis after ERCP in high-risk patients. Methods In this randomised, double-blind, comparative effectiveness trial, we enrolled patients from six tertiary medical centres in the USA. Eligible patients were those at high risk for the development of pancreatitis after ERCP. We randomly assigned eligible patients (1:1) immediately after ERCP to receive either two 50 mg indometacin suppositories and a placebo suppository (standard-dose group) or three 50 mg indometacin suppositories (high-dose group). 4 h after the procedure, patients assigned to the high-dose group received an additional 50 mg indometacin suppository, whereas patients in the standard-dose group received an additional placebo suppository. The randomisation schedule, stratified according to study centre and with no other restrictions, was computer generated by an investigator who was uninvolved in the clinical care of any participants, distributed to the sites, and kept by personnel not directly involved with the study. These same personnel were responsible for packaging the drug and placebo in opaque envelopes. Patients, study personnel, and treating physicians were masked to study group assignment. The primary outcome of the study was the development of pancreatitis after ERCP. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT01912716 , and enrolment is complete. Findings Between July 9, 2013, and March 22, 2018, 1037 eligible patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive either standard-dose (n=515) or high-dose indometacin (n=522). Pancreatitis after ERCP occurred in 141 (14%) of 1037 patients—76 (15%) of 515 patients in the standard-dose indometacin group and 65 (12%) of 522 patients in the high-dose indometacin group (risk ratio [RR] 1·19, 95% CI 0·87–1·61; p=0·32). We observed 19 adverse events that were potentially attributable to study drug. Clinically significant bleeding occurred in 14 (1%) of 1037 patients—six (1%) of 515 patients in the standard-dose indometacin group and eight (2%) of 522 patients in the high-dose indometacin group (p=0·79). Three (1%) of 522 patients in the high-dose indometacin group developed acute kidney injury versus none in the standard-dose group (p=0·25). A non-ST elevation myocardial infarction occurred in the standard-dose indometacin group 2 days after ERCP. A transient ischaemic attack occurred in the high-dose indometacin group 5 days after ERCP. All 19 adverse events, in addition to the 141 patients who developed pancreatitis after ERCP, were considered serious as all required admission to hospital. We observed no allergic reactions or deaths at 30 day follow-up. Interpretation Dose escalation to rectal indometacin 200 mg did not confer any advantage compared with the standard 100 mg regimen, with pancreatitis incidence remaining high in high-risk patients. Current practice should continue unchanged. Further research should consider the pharmacokinetics of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to determine the optimal timing of their administration to prevent pancreatitis after ERCP. Funding American College of Gastroenterology.

Background & Aims: There is controversy regarding the overall value of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis given the lack of data from randomized-controlled trials. To address this issue, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies evaluating the benefits and harms of HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: We performed a search of the Medline and EMBASE databases and national meeting abstracts from January 2014 through July 2020 for studies reporting early-stage HCC detection, curative treatment receipt, or overall survival, stratified by HCC surveillance status, among patients with cirrhosis. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) and hazard ratios, according to HCC surveillance status, were calculated for each outcome using the DerSimonian and Laird method for random effects models. Results: We identified 59 studies including 145,396 patients with HCC, which was detected by surveillance in 41,052 (28.2%) cases. HCC surveillance was associated with improved early-stage detection (RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.73–1.98; I2 = 82%), curative treatment receipt (RR 1.83, 95% CI 1.69–1.97; I2 = 75%), and overall survival (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.61–0.72; I2 = 78%) after adjusting for lead-time bias; however, there was notable heterogeneity in all pooled estimates. Four studies examined surveillance-related physical harms due to false positive or indeterminate surveillance results, but no studies examined potential financial or psychological harms. The proportion of patients experiencing surveillance-related physical harms ranged from 8.8% to 27.5% across studies, although most harms were mild in severity. Conclusion: HCC surveillance is associated with improved early detection, curative treatment receipt, and survival in patients with cirrhosis, although there was heterogeneity in pooled estimates. Available data suggest HCC surveillance is of high value in patients with cirrhosis, although continued rigorous studies evaluating benefits and harms are still needed. Lay summary: There has been ongoing debate about the overall value of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis given the lack of data from randomized-controlled trials. In a systematic review of contemporary cohort studies, we found that HCC screening is associated with improved early detection, curative treatment receipt, and survival in patients with cirrhosis, although there were fewer data quantifying potential screening-related harms. Available data suggest HCC screening is of high value in patients with cirrhosis, although continued studies evaluating benefits and harms are still needed.

Background Countries making up the Nordic region - Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden - have minimal socioeconomic, cultural, and geographical differences between them, allowing for a fair comparative analysis of the health policy and economy trade-off in their national approaches towards mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods This study utilized publicly available COVID-19 data of the Nordic countries from January 2020 to January 3, 2021. COVID-19 epidemiology, public health and health policy, health system capacity, and macroeconomic data were analysed for each Nordic country. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify changes in temporal trends using average monthly percent change (AMPC) and average weekly percent change (AWPC). Results Sweden's health policy, being by far the most relaxed response to COVID-19, was found to have the largest COVID-19 incidence and mortality, and the highest AWPC increases for both indicators (13.5, 95% CI = 5.6, 22.0, P < 0.001; 6.3, 95% CI = 3.5, 9.1, P < 0.001). Den-mark had the highest number of COVID-19 tests per capita, consistent with their approach of increased testing as a preventive strategy for disease transmission. Iceland had the second-highest number of tests per capita due to their mass-testing, contact tracing, quarantine and isolation response. Only Norway had a significant increase in unemployment (AMPC = 2.8%, 95% CI = 0.7-4.9, P < 0.009) while the percentage change in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was insignificant for all countries. Conclusions There was no trade-off between public health policy and economy during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Nordic region. Sweden's relaxed and delayed COVID-19 health policy response did not benefit the economy in the short term, while leading to disproportionate COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality.

Acute optic neuritis (ON) is variably treated with glucocorticoids. We aimed to describe factors associated with glucocorticoid use. In this retrospective, longitudinal cohort study of insured patients in the United States (2005–2019), adults 18–50 years old with one inpatient or ≥2 outpatient diagnoses of ON within 90 days were included. Glucocorticoid use was classified as none, any dose, and high-dose (>100 mg prednisone equivalent ≥1 days). The primary outcome was glucocorticoid receipt within 90 days of the first ON diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed the relationship between glucocorticoid use and sociodemographics, comorbidities, clinician specialty, visit number, and year. Of 3026 people with ON, 65.8% were women (n = 1991), median age (interquartile range) was 38 years (31,44), and 68.6% were white (n = 2075). Glucocorticoids were received by 46% (n = 1385); 54.6% (n = 760/1385) of whom received high-dose. The odds of receiving glucocorticoids were higher among patients with multiple sclerosis (OR 1.61 [95%CI 1.28–2.04]; P < .001), MRI (OR 1.75 [95%CI 1.09–2.80]; P = .02), 3 (OR 1.80 [95%CI 1.46–2.22]; P < .001) or more (OR 4.08 [95%CI 3.37–4.95]; P < .001) outpatient ON visits, and in certain regions. Compared to ophthalmologists, patients diagnosed by neurologists (OR 1.36 [95%CI: 1.10–1.69], p = .005), emergency medicine (OR 3.97 [95%CI: 2.66–5.94]; P < .001) or inpatient clinicians (OR 2.94 [95%CI: 2.22–3.90]; P < .001) had higher odds of receiving glucocorticoids. Use increased 1.1% annually (P < .001). Demyelinating disease, care intensity, setting, region, and clinician type were associated with glucocorticoid use for ON. To optimize care, future studies should explore reasons for ON care variation, and patient/clinician preferences.

Objective To summarize and investigate the comparative efficacy and safety of targeted disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) for active psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Methods Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) evaluating efficacy and safety of targeted synthetic DMARDs (tofacitinib, apremilast) as well as biological DMARDs (guselkumab, ustekinumab, secukinumab, ixekizumab, brodalumab, clazakizumab, abatacept, adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, certolizumab, and golimumab) were identified by systemic literature review. Traditional meta-analysis and network meta-analysis using a random effects model were performed to estimate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI to compare and rank these treatments according to ACR20 response, 75% improvement in psoriasis area and severity index (PASI75), numbers of adverse events (AE) and serious adverse events (SAE). Similar analyses were conducted among biologic-naive population and biologic-experienced/failed population. Results We deemed 29 RCTs eligible, including 10,204 participants and 17 treatments. During induction therapy (first 12–16 weeks), all treatments except clazakizumab were more efficacious than placebo in achieving ACR20 and PASI75. Although tofacitinib, apremilast, and ixekinumab 80 mg every 2 weeks had a higher rate of AE, no significant difference was revealed for SAE among all treatments. Network meta-analysis demonstrated that infliximab, golimumab, etanercept, adalimumab, guselkumab, and secukinumab 300 mg outperformed other drugs in achieving both ACR20 and PASI75. Infliximab, guselkumab, adalimumab, golimumab, secukinumab (300 mg and 150 mg), and ustekinumab (45 mg and 90 mg) are characterized by both high efficacy and safety. Similar rankings were observed in the analysis among biologic-naive patients. Moreover, ustekinumab, secukinumab (300 mg and 150 mg), ixekizumab, abatacept, certolizumab pegol, tofacitinib, and apremilast were still associated with higher ACR20 compared to placebo while ustekinumab, secukinumab (300 mg), ixekizumab and tofacitinib with higher PASI75 among biologic-experienced/failed patients. Conclusion Regarding the overall risk-benefit profile, infliximab, guselkumab, adalimumab, golimumab, secukinumab, and ustekinumab may be safer and more efficacious treatments than the other targeted DMARDs for active PsA during induction therapy.