38 results on '"Aich, Valentin"'
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2. Closing the Water Cycle from Observations across Scales : Where Do We Stand?
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Dorigo, Wouter, Dietrich, Stephan, Aires, Filipe, Brocca, Luca, Carter, Sarah, Cretaux, Jean-François, Dunkerley, David, Enomoto, Hiroyuki, Forsberg, René, Güntner, Andreas, Hegglin, Michaela I., Hollmann, Rainer, Hurst, Dale F., Johannessen, Johnny A., Kummerow, Christian, Lee, Tong, Luojus, Kari, Looser, Ulrich, Miralles, Diego G., Pellet, Victor, Recknagel, Thomas, Vargas, Claudia Ruz, Schneider, Udo, Schoeneich, Philippe, Schröder, Marc, Tapper, Nigel, Vuglinsky, Valery, Wagner, Wolfgang, Yu, Lisan, Zappa, Luca, Zemp, Michael, and Aich, Valentin
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- 2021
3. Increasing compound warm spells and droughts in the Mediterranean Basin
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Vogel, Johannes, Paton, Eva, Aich, Valentin, and Bronstert, Axel
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- 2021
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4. Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
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Van Loon, Anne F., Kchouk, Sarra, Matanó, Alessia, Tootoonchi, Faranak, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Hassaballah, Khalid E. A., Wu, Minchao, Wens, Marthe L. K., Shyrokaya, Anastasiya, Ridolfi, Elena, Biella, Riccardo, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Barendrecht, Marlies H., Bastos, Ana, Cavalcante, Louise, de Vries, Franciska T., Garcia, Margaret, Mård, Johanna, Streefkerk, Ileen N., Teutschbein, Claudia, Tootoonchi, Roshanak, Weesie, Ruben, Aich, Valentin, Boisier, Juan P., Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Du, Yiheng, Galleguillos, Mauricio, Garreaud, René, Ionita, Monica, Khatami, Sina, Koehler, Johanna K. L., Luce, Charles H., Maskey, Shreedhar, Mendoza, Heidi D., Mwangi, Moses N., Pechlivanidis, Ilias G., Ribeiro Neto, Germano G., Roy, Tirthankar, Stefanski, Robert, Trambauer, Patricia, Koebele, Elizabeth A., Vico, Giulia, Werner, Micha, Van Loon, Anne F., Kchouk, Sarra, Matanó, Alessia, Tootoonchi, Faranak, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Hassaballah, Khalid E. A., Wu, Minchao, Wens, Marthe L. K., Shyrokaya, Anastasiya, Ridolfi, Elena, Biella, Riccardo, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Barendrecht, Marlies H., Bastos, Ana, Cavalcante, Louise, de Vries, Franciska T., Garcia, Margaret, Mård, Johanna, Streefkerk, Ileen N., Teutschbein, Claudia, Tootoonchi, Roshanak, Weesie, Ruben, Aich, Valentin, Boisier, Juan P., Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Du, Yiheng, Galleguillos, Mauricio, Garreaud, René, Ionita, Monica, Khatami, Sina, Koehler, Johanna K. L., Luce, Charles H., Maskey, Shreedhar, Mendoza, Heidi D., Mwangi, Moses N., Pechlivanidis, Ilias G., Ribeiro Neto, Germano G., Roy, Tirthankar, Stefanski, Robert, Trambauer, Patricia, Koebele, Elizabeth A., Vico, Giulia, and Werner, Micha
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- 2024
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5. Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
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Van Loon, Anne F., primary, Kchouk, Sarra, additional, Matanó, Alessia, additional, Tootoonchi, Faranak, additional, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, additional, Hassaballah, Khalid E. A., additional, Wu, Minchao, additional, Wens, Marthe L. K., additional, Shyrokaya, Anastasiya, additional, Ridolfi, Elena, additional, Biella, Riccardo, additional, Nagavciuc, Viorica, additional, Barendrecht, Marlies H., additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Cavalcante, Louise, additional, de Vries, Franciska T., additional, Garcia, Margaret, additional, Mård, Johanna, additional, Streefkerk, Ileen N., additional, Teutschbein, Claudia, additional, Tootoonchi, Roshanak, additional, Weesie, Ruben, additional, Aich, Valentin, additional, Boisier, Juan P., additional, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, additional, Du, Yiheng, additional, Galleguillos, Mauricio, additional, Garreaud, René, additional, Ionita, Monica, additional, Khatami, Sina, additional, Koehler, Johanna K. L., additional, Luce, Charles H., additional, Maskey, Shreedhar, additional, Mendoza, Heidi D., additional, Mwangi, Moses N., additional, Pechlivanidis, Ilias G., additional, Ribeiro Neto, Germano G., additional, Roy, Tirthankar, additional, Stefanski, Robert, additional, Trambauer, Patricia, additional, Koebele, Elizabeth A., additional, Vico, Giulia, additional, and Werner, Micha, additional
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- 2024
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6. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups
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Waha, Katharina, Krummenauer, Linda, Adams, Sophie, Aich, Valentin, Baarsch, Florent, Coumou, Dim, Fader, Marianela, Hoff, Holger, Jobbins, Guy, Marcus, Rachel, Mengel, Matthias, Otto, Ilona M., Perrette, Mahé, Rocha, Marcia, Robinson, Alexander, and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
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- 2017
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7. Analysis of multi-dimensional hydrological alterations under climate change for four major river basins in different climate zones
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Wang, Xiaoyan, Yang, Tao, Wortmann, Michel, Shi, Pengfei, Hattermann, Fred, Lobanova, Anastasia, and Aich, Valentin
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- 2017
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8. Quantification and interpretation of suspended-sediment discharge hysteresis patterns: How much data do we need?
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Aich, Valentin, Zimmermann, Alexander, and Elsenbeer, Helmut
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- 2014
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9. Closing the water cycle from observations across scales: where do we stand?
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Dorigo, Wouter, Dietrich, Stephan, Aires, Filipe, Brocca, Luca, Carter, Sarah, Cretaux, Jean-François, Dunkerley, David, Enomoto, Hiroyuki, Forsberg, René, Güntner, Andreas, Hegglin, Michaela I., Hollmann, Rainer, Hurst, Dale F., Johannessen, Johnny A., Kummerow, Christian, Lee, Tong, Luojus, Kari, Looser, Ulrich, Miralles, Diego, Pellet, Victor, Recknagel, Thomas, Vargas, Claudia Ruz, Schneider, Udo, Schoeneich, Philippe, Schröder, Marc, Tapper, Nigel, Vuglinsky, Valery, Wagner, Wolfgang, Yu, Lisan, Zappa, Luca, Zemp, Michael, Aich, Valentin, Dorigo, Wouter, Dietrich, Stephan, Aires, Filipe, Brocca, Luca, Carter, Sarah, Cretaux, Jean-François, Dunkerley, David, Enomoto, Hiroyuki, Forsberg, René, Güntner, Andreas, Hegglin, Michaela I., Hollmann, Rainer, Hurst, Dale F., Johannessen, Johnny A., Kummerow, Christian, Lee, Tong, Luojus, Kari, Looser, Ulrich, Miralles, Diego, Pellet, Victor, Recknagel, Thomas, Vargas, Claudia Ruz, Schneider, Udo, Schoeneich, Philippe, Schröder, Marc, Tapper, Nigel, Vuglinsky, Valery, Wagner, Wolfgang, Yu, Lisan, Zappa, Luca, Zemp, Michael, and Aich, Valentin
- Abstract
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(10), (2021): E1897–E1935, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0316.1., Life on Earth vitally depends on the availability of water. Human pressure on freshwater resources is increasing, as is human exposure to weather-related extremes (droughts, storms, floods) caused by climate change. Understanding these changes is pivotal for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) defines a suite of essential climate variables (ECVs), many related to the water cycle, required to systematically monitor Earth’s climate system. Since long-term observations of these ECVs are derived from different observation techniques, platforms, instruments, and retrieval algorithms, they often lack the accuracy, completeness, and resolution, to consistently characterize water cycle variability at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we review the capability of ground-based and remotely sensed observations of water cycle ECVs to consistently observe the hydrological cycle. We evaluate the relevant land, atmosphere, and ocean water storages and the fluxes between them, including anthropogenic water use. Particularly, we assess how well they close on multiple temporal and spatial scales. On this basis, we discuss gaps in observation systems and formulate guidelines for future water cycle observation strategies. We conclude that, while long-term water cycle monitoring has greatly advanced in the past, many observational gaps still need to be overcome to close the water budget and enable a comprehensive and consistent assessment across scales. Trends in water cycle components can only be observed with great uncertainty, mainly due to insufficient length and homogeneity. An advanced closure of the water cycle requires improved model–data synthesis capabilities, particularly at regional to local scales., WD acknowledges ESA’s QA4EO (ISMN) and CCI Soil Moisture projects. WD, CRV, AG, and KL acknowledge the G3P project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement 870353. MIH and MS acknowledge ESA’s CCI Water Vapour project. MS and RH acknowledges the support by the EUMETSAT member states through CM SAF. DGM acknowledges support from the European Research Council (ERC) under Grant Agreement 715254 (DRY–2–DRY). Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004)., 2022-04-01
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- 2022
10. How Well Do We Understand the Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?
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Crisp, David, Dolman, Han, Tanhua, Toste, McKinley, Galen A., Hauck, Judith, Bastos, Ana, Sitch, Stephen, Eggleston, Simon, Aich, Valentin, Crisp, David, Dolman, Han, Tanhua, Toste, McKinley, Galen A., Hauck, Judith, Bastos, Ana, Sitch, Stephen, Eggleston, Simon, and Aich, Valentin
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- 2022
11. How Well Do We Understand the Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?
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Crisp, David, primary, Dolman, Han, additional, Tanhua, Toste, additional, McKinley, Galen A., additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Eggleston, Simon, additional, and Aich, Valentin, additional
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- 2022
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12. How Well Do We Understand the Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?
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Crisp, David, primary, Dolman, Han, additional, Tanhua, Toste, additional, McKinley, Galen A, additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Eggleston, Simon, additional, and Aich, Valentin, additional
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- 2021
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13. Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean
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Vogel, Johannes, primary, Paton, Eva, additional, and Aich, Valentin, additional
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- 2021
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14. Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean
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Vogel, Johannes Joscha, Paton, Eva Nora, and Aich, Valentin
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seasonality ,crop failure ,ökologische Vulnerabilität ,mediterranean basin ,Ernteausfall ,Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie ,577 Ökologie ,550 Geowissenschaften ,Saisonalität ,Extern ,Mittelmeerraum ,ecosystem vulnerability ,kombinierte Wetterereignisse ,ddc:550 ,compound events ,ddc:577 - Abstract
Mediterranean ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and the associated increase in climate anomalies. This study investigates extreme ecosystem responses evoked by climatic drivers in the Mediterranean Basin for the time span 1999–2019 with a specific focus on seasonal variations as the seasonal timing of climatic anomalies is considered essential for impact and vulnerability assessment. A bivariate vulnerability analysis is performed for each month of the year to quantify which combinations of the drivers temperature (obtained from ERA5-Land) and soil moisture (obtained from ESA CCI and ERA5-Land) lead to extreme reductions in ecosystem productivity using the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR; obtained from the Copernicus Global Land Service) as a proxy. The bivariate analysis clearly showed that, in many cases, it is not just one but a combination of both drivers that causes ecosystem vulnerability. The overall pattern shows that Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to three soil moisture regimes during the yearly cycle: they are vulnerable to hot and dry conditions from May to July, to cold and dry conditions from August to October, and to cold conditions from November to April, illustrating the shift from a soil-moisture-limited regime in summer to an energy-limited regime in winter. In late spring, a month with significant vulnerability to hot conditions only often precedes the next stage of vulnerability to both hot and dry conditions, suggesting that high temperatures lead to critically low soil moisture levels with a certain time lag. In the eastern Mediterranean, the period of vulnerability to hot and dry conditions within the year is much longer than in the western Mediterranean. Our results show that it is crucial to account for both spatial and temporal variability to adequately assess ecosystem vulnerability. The seasonal vulnerability approach presented in this study helps to provide detailed insights regarding the specific phenological stage of the year in which ecosystem vulnerability to a certain climatic condition occurs. How to cite. Vogel, J., Paton, E., and Aich, V.: Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean, Biogeosciences, 18, 5903–5927, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5903-2021, 2021., Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe; 1252
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- 2021
15. Global Terrestrial Network of Water Resources Observation Infrastructures
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Dietrich, Stephan, primary, Aich, Valentin, additional, Dorigo, Wouter, additional, Recknagel, Thomas, additional, Koethe, Harald, additional, and Egglestone, Simon, additional
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- 2021
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16. Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?
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Von Schuckmann, Karina, Cheng, Lijing, Palmer, Matthew D., Hansen, James, Tassone, Caterina, Aich, Valentin, Adusumilli, Susheel, Beltrami, Hugo, Boyer, Tim, Cuesta-valero, Francisco José, Desbruyères, Damien, Domingues, Catia, García-garcía, Almudena, Gentine, Pierre, Gilson, John, Gorfer, Maximilian, Haimberger, Leopold, Ishii, Masayoshi, Johnson, Gregory C., Killick, Rachel, King, Brian A., Kirchengast, Gottfried, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, Lyman, John, Marzeion, Ben, Mayer, Michael, Monier, Maeva, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, Purkey, Sarah, Roemmich, Dean, Schweiger, Axel, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Shepherd, Andrew, Slater, Donald A., Steiner, Andrea K., Straneo, Fiammetta, Timmermans, Mary-louise, Wijffels, Susan E., Von Schuckmann, Karina, Cheng, Lijing, Palmer, Matthew D., Hansen, James, Tassone, Caterina, Aich, Valentin, Adusumilli, Susheel, Beltrami, Hugo, Boyer, Tim, Cuesta-valero, Francisco José, Desbruyères, Damien, Domingues, Catia, García-garcía, Almudena, Gentine, Pierre, Gilson, John, Gorfer, Maximilian, Haimberger, Leopold, Ishii, Masayoshi, Johnson, Gregory C., Killick, Rachel, King, Brian A., Kirchengast, Gottfried, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, Lyman, John, Marzeion, Ben, Mayer, Michael, Monier, Maeva, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, Purkey, Sarah, Roemmich, Dean, Schweiger, Axel, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Shepherd, Andrew, Slater, Donald A., Steiner, Andrea K., Straneo, Fiammetta, Timmermans, Mary-louise, and Wijffels, Susan E.
- Abstract
Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radi
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- 2020
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17. One simulation, different conclusions - the baseline period makes the difference!
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Liersch, Stefan, Drews, Martin, Pilz, Tobias, Salack, Seyni, Sietz, Diana, Aich, Valentin, Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl, Gädeke, Anne, Halsnæs, Kirsten, Thiery, Wim, Huang, Shaochun, Lobanova, Anastasia, Koch, Hagen, Hattermann, Fred, Liersch, Stefan, Drews, Martin, Pilz, Tobias, Salack, Seyni, Sietz, Diana, Aich, Valentin, Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl, Gädeke, Anne, Halsnæs, Kirsten, Thiery, Wim, Huang, Shaochun, Lobanova, Anastasia, Koch, Hagen, and Hattermann, Fred
- Abstract
The choice of the base period, intentionally chosen or not, as a reference for assessing future changes of any projected variable can play an important role for the resulting statement. In regional climate impact studies, well-established or arbitrarily chosen baselines are often used without being questioned. Here we investigated the effects of different baseline periods on the interpretation of discharge simulations from eight river basins in the period 1960-2099. The simulations were forced by four bias-adjusted and downscaled Global Climate Models under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). To systematically evaluate how far the choice of different baselines impacts the simulation results, we developed a similarity index that compares two time series of projected changes. The results show that 25% of the analysed simulations are sensitive to the choice of the baseline period under RCP 2.6 and 32% under RCP 8.5. In extreme cases, change signals of two time series show opposite trends. This has serious consequences for key messages drawn from a basin-scale climate impact study. To address this problem, an algorithm was developed to identify flexible baseline periods for each simulation individually, which better represent the statistical properties of a given historical period.
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- 2020
18. Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Kunduz River Basin, Afghanistan
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Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad, primary, Soltani, Salim, additional, and Aich, Valentin, additional
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- 2020
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19. Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?
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von Schuckmann, Karina, primary, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, Hansen, James, additional, Tassone, Caterina, additional, Aich, Valentin, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Beltrami, Hugo, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, additional, Desbruyères, Damien, additional, Domingues, Catia, additional, García-García, Almudena, additional, Gentine, Pierre, additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gorfer, Maximilian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Killick, Rachel, additional, King, Brian A., additional, Kirchengast, Gottfried, additional, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, additional, Lyman, John, additional, Marzeion, Ben, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Monier, Maeva, additional, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, additional, Purkey, Sarah, additional, Roemmich, Dean, additional, Schweiger, Axel, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, and Wijffels, Susan E., additional
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- 2020
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20. Heat stored in the Earth system: Where does the energy go? The GCOS Earth heat inventory team
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von Schuckmann, Karina, primary, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, Tassone, Caterina, additional, Aich, Valentin, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Beltrami, Hugo, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, additional, Desbruyères, Damien, additional, Domingues, Catia, additional, García-García, Almudena, additional, Gentine, Pierre, additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gorfer, Maximilian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Killik, Rachel, additional, King, Brian A., additional, Kirchengast, Gottfried, additional, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, additional, Lyman, John, additional, Marzeion, Ben, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Monier, Maeva, additional, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, additional, Purkey, Sarah, additional, Roemmich, Dean, additional, Schweiger, Axel, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, and Wijffels, Susan E., additional
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- 2020
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21. WMO STEWARDSHIP MATURITY MATRIX FOR CLIMATE DATA (SMM-CD) – Developed under the High Quality Global Data Management Framework for Climate
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Lief, Christina, Peng, Ge, Baddour, Omar, Wright, William, Aich, Valentin, and Siegmund, Peter
- Abstract
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations with 192 member states and territories. WMO provides the framework for international cooperation for the development of meteorology, climatology, and operational hydrology. WMO is committed to, and continues to, facilitate free and unrestricted exchange of meteorological and related data and information, products, and services.The WMO Commission for Climatology (CCl) inter-programme initiative called High Quality Global Data Management Framework for Climate (HQ-GDMFC) aims at making use of high quality climate data needed for developing climate services for policy and decision making in a variety of applications. A key priority of HQ-GDMFC is to harmonise the definitions and processes and to develop a manual to guide collaborative entities on standards and best practices in the field of data management and stewardship. The International Workshop on Information Management, which was convened by WMO CCl and CBS (Commission for Basic Systems), Geneva, Switzerland, in 2017, included a recommendation for a project plan for climate datasets and access. A key conclusion was that a concept of trusted datasets needs to be defined by a process endorsed by WMO. Datasets must meet standards defined by a maturity index approach. Based on these findings, an International Expert Group on Climate Data Modernisation (IEG-CDM) meeting was held at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) in De Bilt, Netherlands in 2018 to develop a climate data-specific version of the maturity model, to be used to assess the “trustworthiness” of climate datasets. Consequently the Stewardship Maturity Matrix for Climate Data Working Group within the IEG-CDM developed the WMO Stewardship Maturity Matrix for Climate Data (SMM-CD) self assessment tool. Subject Matter Experts can use this tool to evaluate 12 aspects, grouped in 4 categories, each scored from level 1 to 5 on the data stewardship of their dataset along with justifications. On this poster for each aspect the five level descriptions are provided. This provides users with information on the quality of the dataset and a measure of trustworthiness. As the first phase, 18 well-utilized global climate datasets identified by IEG-CDM have been assessed and the SMM-CD assessments are currently under review by the WMO CCL Expert-Team for Data Development and Stewardship.
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- 2019
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22. Climate or land use?
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Aich, Valentin, Liersch, Stefan, Vetter, Tobias, Andersson, Jafet C. M., Müller, Eva Nora, and Hattermann, Fred Fokko
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ddc:550 ,Institut für Geowissenschaften - Abstract
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
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- 2017
23. Heat stored in the Earth system: Where does the energy go? The GCOS Earth heat inventory team.
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Schuckmann, Karina von, Cheng, Lijing, Palmer, Matthew D., Tassone, Caterina, Aich, Valentin, Adusumilli, Susheel, Beltrami, Hugo, Boyer, Tim, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, Desbruyères, Damien, Domingues, Catia, García-García, Almudena, Gentine, Pierre, Gilson, John, Gorfer, Maximilian, Haimberger, Leopold, Ishii, Masayoshi, Johnson, Gregory C., Killik, Rachel, and King, Brian A.
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ENTHALPY ,HEAT ,ATMOSPHERIC composition ,CLIMATE sensitivity ,INVENTORIES ,GLOBAL warming - Abstract
Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat - and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system - is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory, and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960-2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the past 58 years, with a total heat gain of 393 ± 40 ZJ, which is equivalent to a heating rate of 0.42 ± 0.04 W m
-2 . The majority of the heat gain (89 %) takes place in the global ocean (0-700 m: 53 %; 700-2000 m: 28 %; > 2000 m: 8 %), while it amounts to 6 % for the land heat gain, to 4 % available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and to 1 % for atmospheric warming. These new estimates indicate a larger contribution of land and ice heat gain (10 % in total) compared to previous estimates (7 %). There is a regime shift of the Earth heat inventory over the past 2 decades, which appears to be predominantly driven by heat sequestration into the deeper layers of the global ocean, and a doubling of heat gain in the atmosphere. However, a major challenge is to reduce uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory, which can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, as well as to establish an international framework for concerted multi-disciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2020
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24. Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level
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Huang, Shaochun, primary, Kumar, Rohini, additional, Rakovec, Oldrich, additional, Aich, Valentin, additional, Wang, Xiaoyan, additional, Samaniego, Luis, additional, Liersch, Stefan, additional, and Krysanova, Valentina, additional
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- 2018
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25. Lightning: A New Essential Climate Variable
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Aich, Valentin, primary, Holzworth, Robert, additional, Goodman, Steven, additional, Kuleshov, Yuriy, additional, Price, Colin, additional, and Williams, Earle, additional
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- 2018
- Full Text
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26. Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide-a synthesis
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Krysanova, Valentina, Vetter, Tobias, Eisner, Stephanie, Huang, Shaochun, Pechlivanidis, Ilias, Strauch, Michael, Gelfan, Alexander, Kumar, Rohini, Aich, Valentin, Arheimer, Berit, Chamorro, Alejandro, van Griensven, Ann, Kundu, Dipangkar, Lobanova, Anastasia, Mishra, Vimal, Plotner, Stefan, Reinhardt, Julia, Seidou, Ousmane, Wang, Xiaoyan, Wortmann, Michel, Zeng, Xiaofan, Hattermann, Fred F., Krysanova, Valentina, Vetter, Tobias, Eisner, Stephanie, Huang, Shaochun, Pechlivanidis, Ilias, Strauch, Michael, Gelfan, Alexander, Kumar, Rohini, Aich, Valentin, Arheimer, Berit, Chamorro, Alejandro, van Griensven, Ann, Kundu, Dipangkar, Lobanova, Anastasia, Mishra, Vimal, Plotner, Stefan, Reinhardt, Julia, Seidou, Ousmane, Wang, Xiaoyan, Wortmann, Michel, Zeng, Xiaofan, and Hattermann, Fred F.
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- 2017
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27. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups
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World Bank Group, Waha, Katharina, Krummenauer, Linda, Adams, Sophie, Aich, Valentin, Baarsch, Florent, Coumou, Dim, Fader, Marianela, Hoff, Holger, Jobbins, Guy, Marcus, Rachel, Mengel, Mathias, Otto, Ilona M., Perrette, M., Rocha, Marcia, Robinson, Alexander, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, World Bank Group, Waha, Katharina, Krummenauer, Linda, Adams, Sophie, Aich, Valentin, Baarsch, Florent, Coumou, Dim, Fader, Marianela, Hoff, Holger, Jobbins, Guy, Marcus, Rachel, Mengel, Mathias, Otto, Ilona M., Perrette, M., Rocha, Marcia, Robinson, Alexander, and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
- Abstract
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change. These biophysical impacts paired with other pressures and a lack of resilience in some countries cause high vulnerabilities within these sectors and for social dimensions in the MENA region. The agricultural sector, of which 70 percent is rain-fed, is highly exposed to changing climatic conditions. This is of critical importance as the agriculture sector is the largest employer in many Arab countries and contributes significantly to national economies. Impacts will be high in a 2 °C world, as, e.g., annual water discharge, already critically low, is projected to drop by another 15–45% (75% in a 4 °C world) and unusual heat extremes projected to affect about one-third of the land area with likely consequences for local food production. As a consequence, deteriorating rural livelihoods associated with declining agricultural productivity will continue to contribute to migration flows, often to urban areas as already observed. The region could be heavily challenged by both rising food and water demand given its projected increase in population that may double by 2070. As a result, the regions already substantial import dependency could increase and thus its vulnerability to agricultural impacts well beyond its country borders. A severe and sustained pressure on resources could contribute to further social unrest in the already unstable political environment that currently characterizes parts of the region. While the particular societal responses to such changes are hard to foresee, it is clear that extreme impacts would constitute unprecedented challenges to the social systems affected.
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- 2017
28. Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis
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Krysanova, Valentina, primary, Vetter, Tobias, additional, Eisner, Stephanie, additional, Huang, Shaochun, additional, Pechlivanidis, Ilias, additional, Strauch, Michael, additional, Gelfan, Alexander, additional, Kumar, Rohini, additional, Aich, Valentin, additional, Arheimer, Berit, additional, Chamorro, Alejandro, additional, van Griensven, Ann, additional, Kundu, Dipangkar, additional, Lobanova, Anastasia, additional, Mishra, Vimal, additional, Plötner, Stefan, additional, Reinhardt, Julia, additional, Seidou, Ousmane, additional, Wang, Xiaoyan, additional, Wortmann, Michel, additional, Zeng, Xiaofan, additional, and Hattermann, Fred F, additional
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- 2017
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29. Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations
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Aich, Valentin, primary, Akhundzadah, Noor, additional, Knuerr, Alec, additional, Khoshbeen, Ahmad, additional, Hattermann, Fred, additional, Paeth, Heiko, additional, Scanlon, Andrew, additional, and Paton, Eva, additional
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- 2017
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30. Hochwasser im Niger Einzugsgebiet im Kontext des Globalen Wandels
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Aich, Valentin (Dr.)
- Subjects
ddc:550 ,Institut für Geowissenschaften - Abstract
In the last decade, the number and dimensions of catastrophic flooding events in the Niger River Basin (NRB) have markedly increased. Despite the devastating impact of the floods on the population and the mainly agriculturally based economy of the riverine nations, awareness of the hazards in policy and science is still low. The urgency of this topic and the existing research deficits are the motivation for the present dissertation. The thesis is an initial detailed assessment of the increasing flood risk in the NRB. The research strategy is based on four questions regarding (1) features of the change in flood risk, (2) reasons for the change in the flood regime, (3) expected changes of the flood regime given climate and land use changes, and (4) recommendations from previous analysis for reducing the flood risk in the NRB. The question examining the features of change in the flood regime is answered by means of statistical analysis. Trend, correlation, changepoint, and variance analyses show that, in addition to the factors exposure and vulnerability, the hazard itself has also increased significantly in the NRB, in accordance with the decadal climate pattern of West Africa. The northern arid and semi-arid parts of the NRB are those most affected by the changes. As potential reasons for the increase in flood magnitudes, climate and land use changes are attributed by means of a hypothesis-testing framework. Two different approaches, based on either data analysis or simulation, lead to similar results, showing that the influence of climatic changes is generally larger compared to that of land use changes. Only in the dry areas of the NRB is the influence of land use changes comparable to that of climatic alterations. Future changes of the flood regime are evaluated using modelling results. First ensembles of statistically and dynamically downscaled climate models based on different emission scenarios are analyzed. The models agree with a distinct increase in temperature. The precipitation signal, however, is not coherent. The climate scenarios are used to drive an eco-hydrological model. The influence of climatic changes on the flood regime is uncertain due to the unclear precipitation signal. Still, in general, higher flood peaks are expected. In a next step, effects of land use changes are integrated into the model. Different scenarios show that regreening might help to reduce flood peaks. In contrast, an expansion of agriculture might enhance the flood peaks in the NRB. Similarly to the analysis of observed changes in the flood regime, the impacts of climate- and land use changes for the future scenarios are also most severe in the dry areas of the NRB. In order to answer the final research question, the results of the above analysis are integrated into a range of recommendations for science and policy on how to reduce flood risk in the NRB. The main recommendations include a stronger consideration of the enormous natural climate variability in the NRB and a focus on so called “no-regret” adaptation strategies which account for high uncertainty, as well as a stronger consideration of regional differences. Regarding the prevention and mitigation of catastrophic flooding, the most vulnerable and sensitive areas in the basin, the arid and semi-arid Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian regions, should be prioritized. Eventually, an active, science-based and science-guided flood policy is recommended. The enormous population growth in the NRB in connection with the expected deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions is likely to enhance the region´s vulnerability to flooding. A smart and sustainable flood policy can help mitigate these negative impacts of flooding on the development of riverine societies in West Africa. Während des vergangenen Jahrzehnts nahmen die Anzahl und die Ausmaße von katastrophalen Hochwassern im Einzugsgebiet des Nigerflussess (NEZG) deutlich zu. Trotz der verheerenden Auswirkungen der Hochwasserkatastrophen auf die Menschen und die hauptsächlich auf Landwirtschaft basierende Wirtschaft der Anrainerstaaten wird das Thema von Politik und Wissenschaft noch kaum beachtet. Die vorliegende Dissertation ist die erste ausführliche Analyse des steigenden Hochwasserrisikos im NEZG. Die Forschungsstrategie basiert auf vier Fragen nach (1) der Art der Veränderungen des Hochwasserrisikos, (2) den Ursachen der Veränderungen im Hochwasserregime, (3) den zukünftigen Entwicklungen im Hochwasserregime hinsichtlich der erwartenden Klima- und Landnutzungswandel und (4) den aus den Untersuchungen abgeleiteten Empfehlungen zur Reduzierung des Hochwasserrisikos im NEZG. Die Frage nach den Merkmalen der Veränderungen im Hochwasserrisiko wurde mithilfe von statistischen Untersuchungen beantwortet. Die Analysen zeigen, dass neben den Risikofaktoren Exponiertheit und Verwundbarkeit auch die Hochwasserstände selbst im NEZG in den letzten Jahrzehnten signifikant und entsprechend der typischen dekadischen Klimamuster Westafrikas angestiegen sind. Als potentielle Ursachen des Hochwasseranstiegs werden Klima- und Landnutzungswandel untersucht. Zwei verschiedene Ansätze, basierend auf Daten sowie auf Simulationen, führen zu ähnlichen Ergebnissen und zeigen, dass der Einfluss der Klimaveränderungen im Allgemeinen größer als der des Landnutzungswandels ist. Das zukünftige Hochwasserrisiko wird anhand des öko-hydrologisches Modells SWIM abgeschätzt. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf das Hochwasserregime ist auf Grund des problematischen Niederschlagssignals unsicher. Tendenziell werden aber höhere Maximalabflüsse erwartet. Der Effekt der Landnutzungsänderung beeinflusst das Hochwasserverhalten ebenfalls stark, besonders in den trockenen Gebieten. Verschiedene Szenarien zeigen, dass Renaturierung hülfe, Hochwasserspitzen zu kappen. Eine Ausweitung der Agrarflächen dagegen würde die Hochwässer im NEZG weiter verstärken Zentrale Empfehlungen sind eine stärkere Einbeziehung der enorm starken natürlichen Klimavariabilität im NEZG und eine Fokussierung auf sogenannte „no-regret“ Anpassungsstrategien. Dabei sollte den verwundbarsten Regionen des Einzugsgebiets, den ariden und semi-ariden Regionen, Priorität eingeräumt werden. Die enorme Bevölkerungszunahme im NEZG verbunden mit der zu erwartenden Verschlechterung der Umwelt- und Klimabedingungen wird mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit auch die Verwundbarkeit bezüglich Hochwässer weiter ansteigen lassen. Eine vernünftige und nachhaltige Hochwasserpolitik kann helfen, die negativen Folgen auf die Entwicklung der Anrainerstaaten des Nigerflusses abzumindern.
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- 2015
31. Analysis of multi-dimensional hydrological alterations under climate change for four major river basins in different climate zones
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Wang, Xiaoyan, primary, Yang, Tao, additional, Wortmann, Michel, additional, Shi, Pengfei, additional, Hattermann, Fred, additional, Lobanova, Anastasia, additional, and Aich, Valentin, additional
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- 2016
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32. Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change
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Aich, Valentin, primary, Liersch, Stefan, additional, Vetter, Tobias, additional, Fournet, Samuel, additional, Andersson, Jafet C.M., additional, Calmanti, Sandro, additional, van Weert, Frank H.A., additional, Hattermann, Fred F., additional, and Paton, Eva N., additional
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- 2016
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33. Time Series Analysis of Floods across the Niger River Basin
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Aich, Valentin, primary, Koné, Bakary, additional, Hattermann, Fred, additional, and Paton, Eva, additional
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- 2016
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34. Climate or Land Use?-Attribution of Changes in River Flooding in the Sahel Zone
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Aich, Valentin, Liersch, Stefan, Vetter, Tobias, Andersson, Jafet, Mueller, Eva N., Hattermann, Fred F., Aich, Valentin, Liersch, Stefan, Vetter, Tobias, Andersson, Jafet, Mueller, Eva N., and Hattermann, Fred F.
- Abstract
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
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- 2015
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35. LIGHTNING: A NEW ESSENTIAL CLIMATE VARIABLE.
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Aich, Valentin, Holzworth, Robert, Goodman, Steven J., Kuleshov, Yuriy, Price, Colin, and Williams, Earle
- Published
- 2019
36. Climate or Land Use?—Attribution of Changes in River Flooding in the Sahel Zone
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Aich, Valentin, primary, Liersch, Stefan, additional, Vetter, Tobias, additional, Andersson, Jafet, additional, Müller, Eva, additional, and Hattermann, Fred, additional
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- 2015
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37. Development of Wet-Bulb-Temperatures in Germany with special regard to conventional thermal Power Plants using Wet Cooling Towers
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Aich, Valentin, primary, Strauch, Ulrike, additional, Sieck, Kevin, additional, Leyens, Dirk, additional, Jacob, Daniela, additional, and Paeth, Heiko, additional
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- 2011
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38. Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?
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von Schuckmann, Karina, Cheng, Lijing, Palmer, Matthew D., Hansen, James, Tassone, Caterina, Aich, Valentin, Adusumilli, Susheel, Beltrami, Hugo, Boyer, Tim, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, Desbruyères, Damien, Domingues, Catia, García-García, Almudena, Gentine, Pierre, Gilson, John, Gorfer, Maximilian, Haimberger, Leopold, Ishii, Masayoshi, Johnson, Gregory C., Killick, Rachel, King, Brian A., Kirchengast, Gottfried, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, Lyman, John, Marzeion, Ben, Mayer, Michael, Monier, Maeva, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, Purkey, Sarah, Roemmich, Dean, Schweiger, Axel, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Shepherd, Andrew, Slater, Donald A., Steiner, Andrea K., Straneo, Fiammetta, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, and Wijffels, Susan E.
- Subjects
13. Climate action ,14. Life underwater ,7. Clean energy - Abstract
Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on best available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOI https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2 (von Schuckmann et al., 2020)., Earth System Science Data, 12 (3), ISSN:1866-3516, ISSN:1866-3508
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