Search

Training Naval and Marine Corp Aviators is an expensive, time-consuming process, and both branches use the Aviation Service Test Battery (ASTB) to screen applicants before flight training. The ASTB helps ensure aviation applicants are prepared and capable of completing the rigorous aviation training pipeline to ensure resources are well spent. This test has undergone several revisions since its introduction in World War II and most recently in 2012 by substituting and revising portions of the test. Among the updates is a complex testing section using a joystick, throttle, and headphones meant to resemble actual flying in the Primary Flight Training closely. This study examines how effectively the ASTB-E reduces attrition within the aviation community and how each of the new sections contributes to assessing applicants., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Navy Reserves augment the active duty with sailors who live away from fleet concentration areas. Thus, they must travel to provide support. Reservists bring civilian expertise that is specific to mission areas of their supported units. To get the right sailors with the right skills to the right command at the right time, this study develops a tool seeking to optimize the cost efficiency of personnel-billet assignments within a defined budget, without sacrificing their readiness. Using a tailored mixed-method approach, this research focuses on the reserve travel component and a series of qualitative matching scales. This thesis develops a prototype to increase qualitative matches between reserve personnel and their billets while also reducing travel costs. The prototype is based on a specific community of officers, and this study finds that optimal personnel-billet matches’ value can be sustained for this community, but for 64 percent of the original cost. Future researchers can apply this prototype and alter the matching scales to the specific needs of each community. Ultimately, the prototype developed in this study seeks to maximize cost-effective use of the reserve labor supply, and ensures reservists bring the critical skills and experience to our strategic warfighting readiness, aligned with the vision of the Chief of Navy Reserve., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Reserve, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Using detailed data on evaluation and promotion outcomes of active-duty sailors and officers from 2014 to 2022, we find that earning a recommendation of Early Promote (EP) and receiving individual trait average scores above the reporting senior cumulative average (RSCA) are most predictive of promotion across ranks and communities. We find mixed results for socio-demographic and evaluation characteristics assumed to have a negative impact on promotion. Being non-white or a "1 of 1" evaluation (non-competitive summary group) is negatively associated with promotion in some rank and community combinations. Being female or married is positively associated with promotion in some rank and community combinations. However, these results are inconsistent across all ranks and communities, and we fail to find consistent patterns in the data that point to racial or gender bias substantively disadvantaging minorities or women.

Performance evaluation, when executed properly, is one of the key aspects of talent management that not only enables organizations to accomplish their missions, but also promotes better performance, advancement, and retention of the right talents. Past studies have indicated shortcomings in the Navy’s current performance evaluation system (PES). Identifying and implementing successful practices of other services’ PES could improve the Navy’s accuracy of assessing service members’ performances, which could ultimately increase the overall quality of mission readiness of the fleet as well as the individual Sailors. This is a qualitative thesis aimed to aid decision makers as they continue to improve and modernize the Navy’s PES. The methodology includes (1) conducting an overview of the services’ PESs based on current instructions and policies, (2) analyzing the Navy’s PES by comparing and contrasting with other services’ PESs, (3) conducting a thorough literature review to gather and synthesize best practices on the different PESs, and (4) facilitating focus group discussions with Navy SMEs in talent management.

Between 2000 and 2020, the civilian nursing labor market continued to evolve to meet the needs of society putting additional strain on the military nursing labor market. In particular, the demand for nurses has outpaced supply in specific specialties and geographical regions, resulting in the continued rising of real wages and increased incentives to attract nurses. This can have significant implications for the Navy Nurse Corps planners, as the Nurse Corps is in direct competition with the labor market. This study examines the civilian market wages of nurses between 2000 and 2018 disaggregated by census region, specialty, and years of experience and then assesses the relationship to the military nursing market. Additionally, this study analyzes how the military-civilian wage differential affects retention in the Navy Nurse Corps. The multivariate regression model indicates that while controlling for basic demographics, prior-enlisted experience, duty station census region, and nursing specialty, a $1,000 increase in the military-civilian wage differential will increase the odds of a nurse remaining on active duty by 17.2 percent at the three-year decision point and 9.2 percent at the ten-year decision point. The key findings of this study will enable the Navy Nurse Corps planners to continue to make effective and targeted decisions regarding recruiting and retention while competing in a highly competitive civilian labor market.

Since 2016, the photographs of officers being considered for selection have been removed and reinstated twice in the Officer Promotion Selection Boards (PSB), making PSBs an ideal setting to detect whether implicit or explicit bias occurs in the U.S. Navy. Using data from Defense Manpower Data Center and PSBs, I specify linear probability models to estimate the promotion outcomes of minority and female officers before and after the policy change of masking officer photos from the board. This study is similar to civilian studies on taste-based and statistical discrimination, such as blind auditions. I find that promotion outcomes are not statistically significantly changing in relation to the policy change. However, when controlling for the interaction of the photo masking policy and an indicator for minority, minorities are significantly less likely to promote to commander. I also utilize the racial, ethnic, and gender composition of the board to analyze its effect on promotion of minorities and women separately. I find that board composition does have a statistically significant impact on minorities’ promotion to lieutenant commander. On the other hand, I do not find that board composition has a significant effect on minorities’ promotions to commander and captain. Ultimately, however, due to the limitations of zone status and FITREP information in the data, this study is unable to confirm or disprove whether masking photos hurts diversity and inclusion.

Tuition assistance (TA) is one of many voluntary education programs available to Marines to facilitate continuing their education and increase knowledge within the force. This program could thus support the Commandant of the Marine Corps’ call for preparing the force for the future by increasing knowledge management and retention. In March of 2019, the Marine Corps removed eligibility restrictions on TA to expand the opportunity of continued education to more Marines. This study determines what effect, if any, was achieved by the policy change with respect to utilization rate, type of individual TA user, and type of institutions chosen for high education. The analysis utilizes data from the Total Force Data Warehouse (TFDW), the Navy College Management Information System (NCMIS), and the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). As intended, the 2019 policy change increased TA usage. Specifically, the rank most impacted by the policy is E3, which showed a significant increase in TA usage; however, the policy also resulted in a decrease in overall course success and an increase in the use at for-profit institutions. This study recommends further investigation of this topic covering a longer time frame, with data capable of accounting for potential selection bias, and a comparison between different branches of service.

The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a forcing function, requiring industry—both civilian and military—to quickly adapt to maximizing telework. In this thesis, I look at the academic literature as well as military reports to analyze how the Navy could adjust its telework policy to maximize its benefits. I find that telework shows overall increased productivity and quality of life for employees, and that the risks associated with shifting traditionally on-site work to remote work are outweighed by the benefits. It is clear that telework will remain a staple in both the civilian and federal workforces. The Navy must adapt its policies to ensure it is competitive in recruiting and retaining younger generations entering the workforce.

With the introduction of technologically complex aircraft such as the F-35 in the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), it is increasingly important to retain RAAF members in the aviation technical workforce to capitalize on their experience, skills, and knowledge. Using quantitative regression analysis, this thesis examines whether awards predict the probability of separation and promotion of members in the RAAF aviation technical workforce. Using individual-level personnel data from 2016 to 2020, I estimate Linear Probability retention and promotion models. The results indicate that members with B or C promotion codes who receive awards perceived as less prestigious are 36% less likely to separate in the following year. By contrast, receiving an award shows no difference in the likelihood of separation for high-performing members (i.e., those with A promotion codes). Further, receiving any type of award increases a senior member’s probability of promotion by 45.8%, and each additional award increases the promotion probability by 22.9%. Awards of any type had no discernable effect on the promotion likelihood of junior members of the aviation technical workforce. These findings indicate awards might work as a retention tool for members who are performing well (those with B or C promotion codes) but are not considered competitive for promotion, providing insights into the management of rewards for the RAAF aviation technical workforce to incentivize retention and performance.

The Navy Explosive Ordnance Disposal (NEOD) community continues to struggle to retain officers at eight to ten years of commissioned service (YCS). In an effort to incentivize more officers to stay, the Navy implemented an officer retention bonus (ORB) in 2005. Since its inception, the bonus has had a statistically significant increase in retention but has diminished in its attractiveness over time, as fewer and fewer officers take the bonus each year. The object of this project is to study the effectiveness of monetary incentives, specifically the ORB, and its ability to influence the retention decisions of Navy EOD officers at critical career points. Using demographic data from the Officer Personnel Information System (OPINS) from various Navy EOD year groups, a logistic regression analysis was run to quantify the relationship between ORB amounts and "take" decisions. Based on the regression results, ORB amounts were shown to be statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. These findings were then used to develop a logit model. Using this model, it was shown that in order to return to the targeted 75 percent "take" rate, the ORB amount would need to be increased and adjusted for inflation. Therefore, it is recommended that the ORB be updated, at a minimum, on a periodic basis to keep pace with inflation, if it is to remain competitive with earnings potential outside of the Navy., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, This project will review the Navy performance evaluation system and make recommendations to the Navy for changes. The assessment will involve two parts. The first part will be an analysis of the current performance evaluation research literature and Department of Defense (DoD) Service-level policies to identify a set of best practices. The second part will involve focus groups with Navy subject matter experts (SME) and stakeholders, namely past and current board members, to get their impressions of the Navy Performance Evaluation System, their opinions on how other services do Performance Evaluations, and their top recommendations to address current issues in the Navy Performance Evaluation System. The PIs will use the focus group recommendations as inputs in a survey where Navy personnel quantify/rank the recommendations to arrive at the top recommendations selected by the surveyed population. This three-pronged approach will provide the Navy a unique set of recommendations for change based on qualitative and quantitative data. This project supports the Task Force One Navy LOE#2: Talent Management, in particular LOE #2.5 and 2.6 on selection board processes., N1 - Manpower, Personnel, Training & Education, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Marine Corps’ current manpower system focuses on producing quantity over quality and fails to encourage those it wants and needs to keep to increase the diversity and longevity of its officer corps. A renewed emphasis has been placed on understanding what factors may affect an officer’s decision to remain serving. Literature suggests that a mentoring relationship may have a positive effect on retention. In this study, we first explore the predictive power of socio-demographic variables on retention, updating findings from previous studies. Multivariate analysis findings confirm the previous findings that married officers with dependent children are more likely to choose to retain throughout measured retention milestones. Furthermore, the U.S. Naval Academy (USNA) continues to show the highest retention rates among other commissioning sources. We then focus on the officers commissioned from a Naval Reserve Officer Training Corps (NROTC) program to examine how a mentor’s (Marine Officer Instructor) performance and shared attributes with a mentee (midshipman) predict retention behavior for the mentee at the 5- and 7-year milestones. Our findings do not definitively indicate that a mentor’s performance or having shared attributes with a mentee are significant predictive factors for a mentee’s retention decisions, suggesting that additional work on the mentor-mentee relationship and its effect on retention is warranted.

Survey and polling data suggest that the U.S. homeschooled student population is increasing. Annual Marine Corps enlistments of homeschool graduates are also rising after a provision contained in the 2014 National Defense Authorization Act granted homeschoolers the same enlistment status as high school graduates. The purpose of this study is to determine how these trends impact Marine Corps recruiting efforts and whether homeschooled students differ significantly from the Marine Corps’ primary recruiting market, traditional high school graduates. Statistical variations between homeschool and high school graduates are analyzed by examining yearly observations of enlisted accessions from fiscal year 2011 through fiscal year 2020. Regression analysis is used to test for a distinguishable difference between Marines whose highest education credential is either a homeschool or high school diploma. Performance and quality are measured across mental, physical, and behavioral categories selected to represent the “whole Marine concept.” Results ultimately reveal no statistically observable difference exists between Marines who graduated from a traditional four-year high school and those who enlisted with a homeschool diploma., Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Results of all special and general courts-martial in the Marine Corps from January 2017 to August 2020 were analyzed for systemic differences in terms of trial outcomes and punishments. Trial outcomes were obtained from the Marine Corps' legal database and combined with demographic and service data obtained from the Total Force Data Warehouse. Multiple regression analysis was performed with trial outcomes and various categories of punishments awarded utilized as outcome variables. Racial/ethnic, demographic, and service information were utilized as explanatory and control variables. The race/ethnicity of trial personnel, to include trial counsel, defense counsel, and military judge, were also analyzed to determine whether they impacted the outcome of the trial, or whether there were any effects on the interaction between the race/ethnicity of the accused and trial personnel. Outcomes were also analyzed within certain categories of misconduct, specifically trials where Marines were charged with misconduct concerning drug use, sexual misconduct, and the general article. The population representation of the Marine Corps was compared to the demographic makeup of the court-martial sample populations to identify instances of over- and under-representation. Significant over-representation of Black Marines and under-representation of White Marines was found in the courts-martial population. Trial outcomes and punishments were generally not influenced by any racial/ethnic factors., http://archive.org/details/analyzingoutcome1094567162, Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

To support the modern warfighters tasked with increasing demands in a constantly changing global environment, it is imperative that the defense acquisition system continue to evolve to maintain its capability and flexibility. In this effort, growing a talented, experienced, and well-qualified civilian workforce will be vital. As part of this broad effort, the Section 809 Panel has recommended change to the DoD’s career management framework to grow and augment the workforce, and the DoD AWF Strategic Plan — FY 2016 – FY 2021 has emphasized efforts since 2010 to restore and restructure the AWF after a period of twenty years of shrinkage. This technical research report is the second in a proposed series of three linked studies to provide a cutting-edge modeling and simulation tool that leverages the increase in availability of AWF data and the large increases in computing power in the last decades. Building on the proof-of-concept model created as part of the first-year effort, we continue our development of a “Dynamic Retention Model (DRM)” designed from the ground-up for the AWF. Using a large personnel dataset of the acquisition workforce as well as a representative dataset of the civilian population from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate our DRM. DRM is a leading-edge technique that uses a powerful mathematical/econometric technique called dynamic programming. It takes a complex, multi-period problem (such as the lifetime labor market decisions of an acquisition worker) and breaks it down into simpler, one-period sub-problems in a recursive manner. Solving a single-period problem “nests” the future decisions that the worker will make, allowing the estimation and prediction of complex behavior in a surprisingly manageable framework. With estimates from the model, we simulate how various modifications in personnel policies, such as changes in salary structure and bonuses, would have affected the labor market decisions of the workforce. In particular, our mo

In recruiting, the phrase “you recruit who you are” describes a presumed relationship—recruiters attract and enlist individuals who are similar to themselves or within their in-group. This research evaluates the correlation of high-quality recruiters on high-quality enlistees. For the 264,681 recruiter-enlistee pairs from 2011 to 2019, quality is defined and determined for both recruiters and enlistees with five metrics using DOD enlistment standards and Marine Corps promotion and retention standards. I use linear probability models with RSS fixed effects and year fixed effects to hold constant market conditions and variations across years. Based on the five metrics, I find that high-quality recruiters have a consistently positive estimated effect on high-quality enlistees across all metrics with several effects statistically significant. I surmise that, by determining which Marines are high-quality prior to their assignment to recruiting, the Marine Corps may affect the quality of the enlistees at accession. Because force design necessitates higher-quality accessions, this thesis therefore recommends that the Marine Corps consider sending more high-quality Marines to recruiting duty to potentially improve the quality of the warfighting organization. Conversely, if the Marine Corps does not prioritize and send high-quality Marines to recruiting duty, then the Marine Corps may pay the price with lower quality enlistees.

This study investigates the impact of high school quality and peer group characteristics on the misconduct and attrition of enlisted Marines. Multivariate regression models employ personnel data from the USMC Total Force Data Warehouse on 22,177 enlisted Marines who joined the USMC during fiscal year 2013 and high school identifiers from the Common Core of Data. Misconduct incidents per year of service, propensity to commit misconduct, propensity to attrite within six years, and propensity to attrite under undesirable circumstances are regressed on high school quality, the number of fellow Marines from the same high school, and demographic breakdown of those fellow Marines. The model results show that high school quality, in itself, does not impact misconduct or attrition. Attending a high-quality high school does, however, amplify the negative impact that a higher Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score has on propensity to attrite within six years. High school enlistment peer group size does not significantly impact misconduct or attrition. The percentage of high school enlistment peer group that consists of female, black, or Hispanic Marines does not impact the misconduct or attrition outcomes for those groups. We recommend that the USMC not invest time or resources toward recruiting Marines specifically from high-quality high schools, recruiting larger peer groups from each school, or achieving a specific demographic breakdown of recruits from each school.

This research addresses the decreasing worth of the Servicemembers’ Group Life Insurance (SGLI) payout based on the year a servicemember dies. The SGLI maximum has stagnated at $400,000 for over 16 years and nearly every other servicemember entitlement or benefit has increased in this timeframe. Using four principal steps, this research first determines what the SGLI maximum should be using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and compounding inflation rates. Second, it conducts trend analysis to determine statistically significant predictors of servicemember death trends and forecasts servicemember deaths, end strengths, and inflation rates for ex post analysis. Third, it determines the feasibility of the proposed increases using historical payout-to-contribution ratios to determine sustainable contribution rates for monthly premiums. Fourth, it discusses alternatives to still provide benefit to servicemembers and beneficiaries, regardless of policy change. The ultimate recommendation is to increase the SGLI maximum to $525,000 in 2021, then continue to increase at 5-year intervals to correct for inflation, ultimately increasing to $605,000 in 2041 at which point it can be reassessed or have the interval increases continue. With a 95 percent confidence interval, the models predicted between 757 and 2,596 annual servicemember deaths; total service end strengths between 798,529 and 2,300,810; and inflation rates between 0.44 and 5.56 percent until 2041., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The U.S. Navy is currently considering a transformation of its personnel performance evaluation system to ensure retention and promotion processes that are less subjective and contribute to a more efficient personnel management system. In this thesis, using an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach, we examine the process and criteria used by the U.S. Navy to select officers from the unrestricted line (URL) for O-5 promotion. We find that the Navy lags in using personality traits and measures of emotional intelligence metrics in its leadership selection and promotion processes, metrics that are considered increasingly important in selecting leaders in the civilian sector. We use historical personnel records to estimate predictive O-5 promotion models in the URL community. Officers’ educational background is the closest measure we have from the existing Navy personnel data when trying to distinguish between officers more likely to exhibit hard skills (associated with technical degrees) versus soft skills (associated with non-technical degrees). We find that officers with technical degrees promote to the O-5 rank at similar rates with officers with either a mix of technical and non-technical degrees or those with exclusive non-technical degrees. We recommend that the Navy start collecting measures of personality traits and emotional intelligence to use in more efficient, less subjective personnel selection and promotion processes., http://archive.org/details/analysisofopromo1094564906, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Sailors are difficult to recruit, expensive to train, and hard to retain. This is particularly true in the technical sailor community. Retention of both technical and non-technical sailors is critical to future manning continuity and capability within the Royal Australian Navy. This research employs machine learning to analyze Royal Australian Navy exit survey data collected between 1999 and 2018 to better predict the attitudes and behaviors of a sailor voluntarily separating between four and eight years of service. Furthermore, this study analyzes in particular whether technical sailors behave differently compared to non-technical sailors. In comparison to traditional modeling techniques, the analysis finds that machine learning can more accurately detect differences in the attitudes and behaviors of technical and non-technical sailors when they are deciding to voluntarily separate from service. Furthermore, the analysis can identify differences in sentiment across periods of time covering key career milestones. This analysis and its findings may now be employed to analyze specific critical target groups in both the Royal Australian Navy technical and non-technical sailor communities to understand their attitudes and behaviors, and help support current and future sailor retention policy initiatives., http://archive.org/details/usingmachinelear1094564123, Lieutenant Commander, Royal Australian Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Navy uses “zones” to define promotion eligibility of its officers in each of the control grades, O4–O6. Recent shifts in policy have begun to move the promotion system away from strict zone eligibility in favor of a more merit-based system that have re-defined zones. Despite recent steps to minimize the effects of promotion zone, such as removing zone labels from officer records, little to no research exists that supports such a policy change or other proposed alterations. Using data from Navy Personnel Command, we use linear probability models to show that recent policy removing zone labels from promotion-eligible officer records increases probabilities of promotion both below and above-zone while lowering probabilities of promotion for in-zone officers. Additionally, using data from the Defense Manpower Data Center, we use Cox Survival analysis to show that attrition rates decline for previously fast-tracking officers and increase for slow-tracking officers. Moreover, we show that promotion probabilities increase for fast-tracking officers while they decrease for slow-trackers. Based on our findings we therefore recommend expanding below-zone selections to allow for a more robust naval officer workforce and that if limits must be made, they should made towards above-zone eligible officers. Future studies should look to secure data that would allow statistical methods that isolate zones and determine the causality and effects that zones have on an officer., http://archive.org/details/analysisofpromot1094564894, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This research examines the applicability of machine learning algorithms to best predict the probability of reenlistment of enlisted first-term Marines. Given the availability of data today, machine learning can be a useful tool to make policy decisions that can impact the future Fleet Marine Force. This thesis uses demographic data, pre-boot-camp data, performance indicators, legal data, awards data, and selective reenlistment bonus indicators to identify factors that contribute to the prediction of reenlistment. This thesis applies data from the Total Force Data Warehouse (TFDW) and fits machine learning algorithms to assess their prediction accuracy. Measuring machine learning models by accuracy alone is not sufficient. An evaluation of top predictors is conducted to choose the best-preforming machine learning algorithm. Given the data used in this thesis, the machine learning algorithm that best predicts the probability of reenlistment is the C5 algorithm. Variables associated with deployment and performance are among the top ten predictors of importance.

Modern navies face a highly competitive labor market, particularly in technical and medical specialties. Among other issues, long deployment times contribute to difficulties in recruiting, resulting in vacancies and shortfalls in manning on board seagoing units. Another challenge worldwide navies face is the reduced availability of platforms. Multi-crewing concepts offer a way to increase efficient use of the scarce platforms. These concepts generally separate crews from ships as independent elements that require specific scheduling. The present study finds that previously introduced scheduling optimizations for personnel and ships do not consider permanent and temporary personnel shortfalls. The study assumes that a certain vacancy rate will lead to an increased level of interchangeability within crews that may reduce force readiness or result in the collapse of the crewing system. In this thesis I create a generic crewing model and simulate different vacancy states to analyze their impact on crew composition. The model incorporates a constraint of maximum absences for each individual in the crews, focusing on the resulting increase in personnel turnover and number of unmanned billets. It finds that the vacancy rate exponentially affects the resulting number of unmanned billets and increases the additional turnover rate, which has a negative effect on a crew’s performance., http://archive.org/details/longtermimpactof1094562288, Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant Commander, German Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines retention in the Navy Medicine and Surface Warfare communities using an administrative dataset from Defense Manpower Data Center and the Milestone Survey from the Office of the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Manpower, Personnel, Training, and Education) (OPNAV N1). Through a combination of descriptive and multivariate logistic models, we find that being a female, having dependents, and being Hispanic are most correlated with separation outcomes in the administrative data. Our survey results indicate that the top reasons for leaving are impact on family, civilian job opportunities, and work-life balance. The top reasons for staying are medical and dental benefits, monetary compensation and retirement, and current job satisfaction. We find that while there is a considerable variation in the intent to leave percentage across communities in the survey, the percent of service members who actually left the Navy voluntarily in the administrative data are similar across the communities. We recommend that the Navy focus on improving the quality of life for members and their families. An additional consideration includes shifting the timeline for assignment of Navy Medicine junior officers to their first sea duty tours and deployments.

This report addresses deficiencies in our understanding of service members’ career trajectories. The insights generated will be used to construct more sophisticated and useful models of long run manpower projections, allowing complex simulations to predict the impact of personnel policy changes. This will allow Navy leadership to avoid unanticipated shocks to service member supply and quality. This report proceeds along two lines. First, we collect a dataset of Navy officers and examine their career trajectory, paying particular attention to their educational background and sociodemographic characteristics. Using long-term trend, as well as regression analysis, we find significant retention rate differences over the long run across gender, marital and dependent status, race, and education level. While the long run trends and regression results are illuminating, we should be wary of drawing definite conclusions about the innate ability or desire of officers to stay or separate based on these analyses. Without a formal model to distinguish between correlation and causation, we should recognize that the findings in this study primarily help direct our modeling efforts in subsequent years. Second, we provide an in-depth description of dynamic programming models, demonstrating their usefulness and internal consistency for predicting rational, forward-looking agents making choices that affect their future. We provide a detailed technical description of the model, defining value functions, Bellman’s equations, and other concepts necessary to program, estimate, solve, and simulate a dynamic programming model. We then propose the path forward to examine how service members in different communities may make different career choices.

Although females represent almost half of the U.S. civilian labor force, they account for less than 15 percent of the officers in the U.S. military. To account for this discrepancy, this thesis tests for gender bias within the U.S. military by analyzing unique datasets derived from Naval Postgraduate School. We first conduct a randomized control trial by means of a survey (n=234). One group responds to scenarios relating to one gender; the second group responds to the same scenarios but relating to the opposite gender. We then use statistical analysis and ordinary least squares models to compare responses between genders. Second, using NPS student evaluations of teaching (n=175,093), we conduct t tests, examine the correlation of evaluation questions on instructor effectiveness, and employ ordinary least squares models using student and course fixed effects, and instructor and course fixed effects while controlling for student, instructor, class and school characteristics to analyze how gender influences evaluations. Our results identify that students favor matched gender pairs, with the effect largest among male pairs. We found this effect to be of marginal economic significance. These findings may indicate the effectiveness of gender equality training, or may reflect the current social climate concerning gender bias.

This report addresses deficiencies in our understanding of service members’ career trajectories. The insights generated will be used to construct more sophisticated and useful models of long run manpower projections, allowing complex simulations to predict the impact of personnel policy changes. This will allow Navy leadership to avoid unanticipated shocks to service member supply and quality. This report proceeds along two lines. First, we collect a dataset of Navy officers and examine their career trajectory, paying particular attention to their educational background and sociodemographic characteristics. Using long-term trend, as well as regression analysis, we find significant retention rate differences over the long run across gender, marital and dependent status, race, and education level. While the long run trends and regression results are illuminating, we should be wary of drawing definite conclusions about the innate ability or desire of officers to stay or separate based on these analyses. Without a formal model to distinguish between correlation and causation, we should recognize that the findings in this study primarily help direct our modeling efforts in subsequent years. Second, we provide an in-depth description of dynamic programming models, demonstrating their usefulness and internal consistency for predicting rational, forward-looking agents making choices that affect their future. We provide a detailed technical description of the model, defining value functions, Bellman’s equations, and other concepts necessary to program, estimate, solve, and simulate a dynamic programming model. We then propose the path forward to examine how service members in different communities may make different career choices., Prepared for: OPNAV N81 Assessment Division, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Although females represent almost half of the U.S. civilian labor force, they account for less than 15 percent of the officers in the U.S. military. To account for this discrepancy, this thesis tests for gender bias within the U.S. military by analyzing unique datasets derived from Naval Postgraduate School. We first conduct a randomized control trial by means of a survey (n=234). One group responds to scenarios relating to one gender; the second group responds to the same scenarios but relating to the opposite gender. We then use statistical analysis and ordinary least squares models to compare responses between genders. Second, using NPS student evaluations of teaching (n=175,093), we conduct t tests, examine the correlation of evaluation questions on instructor effectiveness, and employ ordinary least squares models using student and course fixed effects, and instructor and course fixed effects while controlling for student, instructor, class and school characteristics to analyze how gender influences evaluations. Our results identify that students favor matched gender pairs, with the effect largest among male pairs. We found this effect to be of marginal economic significance. These findings may indicate the effectiveness of gender equality training, or may reflect the current social climate concerning gender bias., http://archive.org/details/theidentificatio1094558369, Outstanding Thesis, Major, Australian Army, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.