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This article develops multiple novel climate risk measures (or variables) based on the television news coverage by Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business, and examines how they affect the systematic and idiosyncratic risks of clean energy firms in the United States. The measures are built on climate related keywords and cover the volume of coverage, type of coverage (climate crisis, renewable energy, and government & human initiatives), and media sentiments. We show that an increase in the aggregate measure of climate risk, as indicated by coverage volume, reduces idiosyncratic risk while increasing systematic risk. When climate risk is segregated, we find that systematic risk is positively affected by the physical risk of climate crises and transition risk from government & human initiatives, but no such impact is evident for idiosyncratic risk. Additionally, we observe an asymmetry in risk behavior: negative sentiments tend to increase idiosyncratic risk and decrease systematic risk, while positive sentiments have no significant impact. These findings remain robust to including print media and climate policy uncertainty variables, though some deviations are noted during the COVID-19 period., Comment: 29 pages, 3 figures, 6 tables

Time series data from real-world systems often display non-stationary behavior, indicating varying statistical characteristics over time. This inherent variability poses significant challenges in deciphering the underlying structural relationships within the data, particularly in correlation and causality analyses, model stability, etc. Recognizing distinct segments or regimes within multivariate time series data, characterized by relatively stable behavior and consistent statistical properties over extended periods, becomes crucial. In this study, we apply the regime identification (RegID) technique to multivariate time series, fundamentally designed to unveil locally stationary segments within data. The distinguishing features between regimes are identified using covariance matrices in a Riemannian space. We aim to highlight how regime identification contributes to improving the discovery of causal structures from multivariate non-stationary time series data. Our experiments, encompassing both synthetic and real-world datasets, highlight the effectiveness of regime-wise time series causal analysis. We validate our approach by first demonstrating improved causal structure discovery using synthetic data where the ground truth causal relationships are known. Subsequently, we apply this methodology to climate-ecosystem dataset, showcasing its applicability in real-world scenarios.

Deepfake videos, generated through AI faceswapping techniques, have garnered considerable attention due to their potential for powerful impersonation attacks. While existing research primarily focuses on binary classification to discern between real and fake videos, however determining the specific generation model for a fake video is crucial for forensic investigation. Addressing this gap, this paper investigates the model attribution problem of Deepfake videos from a recently proposed dataset, Deepfakes from Different Models (DFDM), derived from various Autoencoder models. The dataset comprises 6,450 Deepfake videos generated by five distinct models with variations in encoder, decoder, intermediate layer, input resolution, and compression ratio. This study formulates Deepfakes model attribution as a multiclass classification task, proposing a segment of VGG19 as a feature extraction backbone, known for its effectiveness in imagerelated tasks, while integrated a Capsule Network with a Spatio-Temporal attention mechanism. The Capsule module captures intricate hierarchies among features for robust identification of deepfake attributes. Additionally, the video-level fusion technique leverages temporal attention mechanisms to handle concatenated feature vectors, capitalizing on inherent temporal dependencies in deepfake videos. By aggregating insights across frames, our model gains a comprehensive understanding of video content, resulting in more precise predictions. Experimental results on the deepfake benchmark dataset (DFDM) demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method, achieving up to a 4% improvement in accurately categorizing deepfake videos compared to baseline models while demanding fewer computational resources., Comment: Rejected from jounal and will have to conduct several more experiments

Cause-effect analysis is crucial to understand the underlying mechanism of a system. We propose to exploit model invariance through interventions on the predictors to infer causality in nonlinear multivariate systems of time series. We model nonlinear interactions in time series using DeepAR and then expose the model to different environments using Knockoffs-based interventions to test model invariance. Knockoff samples are pairwise exchangeable, in-distribution and statistically null variables generated without knowing the response. We test model invariance where we show that the distribution of the response residual does not change significantly upon interventions on non-causal predictors. We evaluate our method on real and synthetically generated time series. Overall our method outperforms other widely used causality methods, i.e, VAR Granger causality, VARLiNGAM and PCMCI+.

Estimating causal relations is vital in understanding the complex interactions in multivariate time series. Non-linear coupling of variables is one of the major challenges inaccurate estimation of cause-effect relations. In this paper, we propose to use deep autoregressive networks (DeepAR) in tandem with counterfactual analysis to infer nonlinear causal relations in multivariate time series. We extend the concept of Granger causality using probabilistic forecasting with DeepAR. Since deep networks can neither handle missing input nor out-of-distribution intervention, we propose to use the Knockoffs framework (Barberand Cand`es, 2015) for generating intervention variables and consequently counterfactual probabilistic forecasting. Knockoff samples are independent of their output given the observed variables and exchangeable with their counterpart variables without changing the underlying distribution of the data. We test our method on synthetic as well as real-world time series datasets. Overall our method outperforms the widely used vector autoregressive Granger causality and PCMCI in detecting nonlinear causal dependency in multivariate time series.