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Recent Juno observations have greatly extended the temporal and spatial coverage of lightning detection on Jupiter. We use these data to constrain a model of moist convection and lightning generation in Jupiter's atmosphere, and derive a roughly solar abundance of water at the base of the water cloud. Shallow lightning, observed by Juno (Becker et al., 2020, Nature, 584, 55-58) and defined as flashes originating at altitudes corresponding to pressure less than 2 bars, is reproduced, as is lightning at a deeper range of pressures, including those below the water cloud base. It is found that the generation of lightning requires ammonia to stabilize liquid water at altitudes corresponding to sub-freezing temperatures. We find a range of local water abundances in which lightning is possible, including subsolar values of water--consistent with other determinations of deep oxygen abundance., Comment: 47 pages, 7 figures, to be published in Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets