Search

This paper investigates what may have been the cosmological and religious inspirations for the plan of the city of Parthenope-Neapolis (the historic centre of Naples, Italy), which was founded in the early fifth century BC by Greek colonists. Neapolis anticipated the strict orthogonal Hippodamian street grid plan. We argue that its geometry and geographical orientation was chosen so that Neapolis could be recognized as the city of Helios/Apollo (the sun-god of the Greeks) and Parthenope, the deified royal ancestor and/or the siren after whom the city was named. In fact, Neapolis's streets were cosmologically oriented using a sixteen-rayed hexadecagram geometry to emphasize Apollonian/solar cults. The city was also planned using a Pythagorean decagram/pentagram design with golden section proportions and inscribed geometries to symbolize the Harmony of the Spheres. These geometries were apparently inspired by the specific paths of the sun seen from the city on the solstices. Moreover, a sort of celestial light show on the spring and autumn equinoxes connected the sun, the Somma-Vesuvius volcano complex, Sant’ Elmo hill, the constellations of Taurus, Virgo/Parthenos and Aquila with the cult of Sebethos and Parthenope, the parent gods of Neapolis. Finally, Vitruvius's ideal city design appears to indicate that the novel and advanced planning of Neapolis served as a prototype for subsequent Greek and Roman cities.

I napoletani odiano la pioggia ma amano non solo il sole che risplende in gran parte dell’anno ma anche la neve che qualche volta in inverno imbianca la città. I fiocchi di neve e gli alberi innevati hanno la sorprendente capacità di lasciare i napoletani a bocca aperta. Questo libro, per la prima volta, analizza le condizioni meteorologiche che hanno indotto le nevicate più importanti degli ultimi 130 anni e parla delle suggestioni e delle emozioni che esse hanno suscitato nei napoletani. La speranza è che le numerose foto e i vari racconti siano in grado di risvegliare i ricordi in coloro che ne hanno già vissuto l’esperienza spiegando anche il perché del fenomeno.

We study whether the shallow volcanic seismic tremors related to the bradyseism observed at the Phlegraean Fields (Campi Flegrei, Pozzuoli, and Naples) from 2008 to 2020 by the Osservatorio Vesuviano could be partially triggered by local rainfall events. We use the daily rainfall record measured at the nearby Meteorological Observatory of San Marcellino in Naples and develop two empirical models to simulate the local seismicity starting from the hypothesized rainfall-water effect under different scenarios. We found statistically significant correlations between the volcanic tremors at the Phlegraean Fields and our rainfall model during years of low bradyseism. More specifically, we observe that large amounts and continuous periods of rainfall could trigger, from a few days to 1 or 2 weeks, seismic swarms with magnitudes up to M = 3. The results indicate that, on long timescales, the seismicity at the Phlegraean Fields is very sensitive to the endogenous pressure from the deep magmatic system causing the bradyseism, but meteoric water infiltration could play an important triggering effect on short timescales of days or weeks. Rainfall water likely penetrates deeply into the highly fractured and hot shallow-water-saturated subsurface that characterizes the region, reduces the strength and stiffness of the soil and, finally, boils when it mixes with the hot hydrothermal magmatic fluids migrating upward. The structural collapse of the saturated fractured soil and the mixing of the meteoric fluid with the hot deep fluids triggers the local seismic activity.

Dall’analisi di tutti i parametri meteo dell’anno 2019 emerge quanto segue: (a) la pressione atmosferica media mensile oscilla fra 1010.5 hPa di novembre e 1022.2 hPa di febbraio, con una media annua di 1015.7 hPa, con un minimo assoluto di 987.1 hPa registrato il 12 dicembre alle ore 18.50 e con un massimo assoluto di 1033.4 hPa registrato il 14 febbraio alle ore 9.00; (b) la temperatura media mensile dell’aria oscilla fra 8.7°C di gennaio e 28.2°C di agosto, con una media annua di 18.6°C, con un minimo assoluto di 1.4°C registrato il 4 gennaio alle ore 6:30 e con un massimo assoluto di 35.7°C registrato il 31 agosto alle ore 15:40; (c) l’umidità relativa media mensile oscilla fra 64.4% di giugno e 79.6% di novembre, con una media annua di 69.3%, con un minimo assoluto del 21.0% registrato il 29 giugno alle ore 16:50 e con un massimo assoluto di 95.0% registrato il 22 dicembre alle ore 2:40; (d) la radiazione solare globale media mensile oscilla fra 156.7 W/m2 di novembre e 436.7 W/m2 di agosto, con una media annua di 323.5 W/m2 e con un massimo assoluto di 1304.0 W/m2 registrato il 30 maggio alle ore 12.30; (e) l’indice UV medio mensile oscilla fra 3.0 di agosto e 8.2 di settembre, con una media annua di 4.3 e con un massimo assoluto di 11.5 registrato il 6 giugno alle ore 14:20; (f) l’intensità media mensile del vento oscilla tra 0.8 m/s di ottobre e 2.3 m/s di febbraio, con una media annua di 1.4 m/s e con la raffica più intensa di 25.5 m/s registrata il 29 ottobre alle ore 16:40; (g) la direzione del vento presenta un’orientazione da Nord in febbraio, novembre, dicembre, da Nord-Est in gennaio, da Sud in giugno , da Sud-Ovest in marzo, aprile, maggio, luglio, agosto, settembre; (h) la pioggia cumulata mensile oscilla tra il valore 0 mm di agosto e i 376.0 mm di novembre, con un valore annuale cumulato di 1012.5 mm e con un massimo giornaliero assoluto di 54.0 mm registrato il 19 dicembre.

Severe weather events cause considerable disruptions to social and economic activities. Thus, high-precision meteorological products and services should be provided in order to forecast high-impacting weather conditions a few hours in advance such as those causing flash-floods. Today, this goal is mainly fulfilled by nowcasting. However, to fully comprehend alluvial phenomena, it is necessary to analyze not only the ground hydrological aspects but also the atmospheric dynamics leading to heavy precipitating events whose territorial distribution is generally complex. Herein, we analyzed the evolution of two convective storms which occurred on September 7 and 11, 2017, in the Phlegraean area (close to Naples) and explain why the first one, but not the second one, led to a flash-flood in Bacoli and Pozzuoli. We found that the traditional forecasting techniques failed since the severity of the two storms, in particular that of the first one, was not correctly forecast by Limited Area Models (LAMs). Using rainfall data, we demonstrate that LAM failed because it did not take into account the meteorological phenomenon enhancement occurring in the Phlegraean area when storms come from south-west due to the presence of Mt. Epomeo (789 m) on the nearby island of Ischia. In fact, this mountain has a quasi-pyramidal shape and is located at just 15–20 km south-west of the Phlegraean area. Thus, short/very-short time forecasting and nowcasting methodologies are not fully satisfactory. On the contrary, real-time rain-gauge monitoring networks are necessary to achieve high-safety levels in areas subject to flash-flood hazards and to promptly alert the population.

We analyze hourly seismic data measured at the Osservatorio Vesuviano Ovest (OVO, 1972-2014) and at the Bunker Est (BKE, 1999-2014) stations on the Mt. Vesuvius. The OVO record is complete for seismic events with magnitude M > 1.9. We demonstrate that before 1996 this record presents a daily oscillation that nearly vanishes afterwards. To determine whether a daily oscillation exists in the seismic activity of the Mt. Vesuvius, we use the higher quality BKE record that is complete for seismic events with magnitude M > 0.2. We demonstrate that BKE confirms that the seismic activity at the Mt. Vesuvius is higher during nighttime than during day-time. The amplitude of the daily oscillation is enhanced during summer and damped during winter. We speculate possible links with the cooling/warming diurnal cycle of the volcanic edifice, with external geomagnetic field and with magnetostriction that should also stress the rocks. We find that the amplitude of the seismic daily cycle changes in time and has been increasing since 2008. Finally, we propose a seismic activity index to monitor the 24-hour oscillation that could be used to complement other methodologies currently adopted to determine the seismic status of the volcano and to prevent the relative hazard., 31 pages, 10 figures, 9 tables

We compare the NOAA Significant Earthquake Historical database versus typical climatic indices and the length of the day (LOD). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) record is mainly adopted because most of the analyzed earthquakes occurred at the land boundaries of the Pacific Plate. The NOAA catalog contains information on destructive earthquakes. Using advanced spectral and magnitude squared coherence methodologies, we found that the magnitude $$M\ge 7$$ earthquake annual frequency and the PDO record share common frequencies at about 9-, 20-, and 50- to 60-year periods, which are typically found in climate records and among the solar and lunar harmonics. The two records are negatively correlated at the 20- and 50- to 60-year timescales and positively correlated at the 9-year and lower timescales. We use a simple harmonic model to forecast the $$M\ge 7$$ significant earthquake annual frequency for the next decades. The next 15 years should be characterized by a relatively high $$M\ge 7$$ earthquake activity (on average 10–12 occurrences per year) with possible maxima in 2020 and 2030 and a minimum in the 2040s. On the 60-year scale, the LOD is found to be highly correlated with the earthquake record ( $$r=0.51$$ for 1900–1994, and $$r=0.95$$ for 1910–1970). However, the LOD variations appear to be too small to be the primary earthquake trigger. Our results suggest that large earthquakes are triggered by crust deformations induced by, and/or linked to climatic and oceanic oscillations induced by astronomical forcings, which also regulate the LOD.

By applying fractal geometry analysis to the drainage network of three large watercourses in America and Europe, we have calculated for the first time their fractal dimension. The aim is to interpret the geomorphologic characteristics to better understand the morphoevolutionary processes of these fluvial morphotypes; to identify and discriminate geomorphic phenomena responsible for any difference or convergence of a fractal dimension; to classify hydrographic patterns, and finally to compare the fractal degree with some geomorphic-quantitative indexes. The analyzed catchment of Russian (California, USA), Ebro (Spain), and Volturno (Italy) rivers are situated in Mediterranean-climate regions sensu Ko¨ppen, but with different geologic context and tectonic styles. Results show fractal dimensions ranging from 1.08 to 1.50. According to the geological setting and geomorphic indexes of these basins, the lower fractal degree indicates a prevailing tectonics, active or not, while the higher degree indicates the stronger erosion processes on inherited landscapes.

Dall’analisi di tutti i parametri meteo dell’anno 2017 emerge quanto segue: • La pressione atmosferica media mensile oscilla fra 1013.4 hPa di novembre e 1023.5 hPa di dicembre, con una media annua di 1017.5 hPa, con un minimo assoluto di 996.2 hPa registrato il 28 dicembre alle ore 5.20 e con un massimo assoluto di 1036.5 hPa registrato il 6 dicembre alle ore 9.20. • La temperatura dell’aria media mensile oscilla fra 8.1°C di gennaio e 27.8 °C di agosto, con una media annua di 18.2°C, con un minimo assoluto di -0.6°C registrato il 7 gennaio alle ore 6:10 e con un massimo assoluto di 36.1°C registrato il 21 luglio alle ore 17:20. • L’umidità relativa media mensile oscilla fra 62.1% di luglio e 73.8% di febbraio, con una media annua di 68.0%, con un minimo assoluto del 25.0% registrato l’11 luglio alle ore 14:10 e con un massimo assoluto di 96.0% registrato il 7 ottobre alle ore 7:10. • La radiazione solare globale media mensile oscilla fra 164.5 W/m2 di dicembre e 445.9 W/m2 di maggio, con una media annua di 329.7 W/m2 e con un massimo assoluto di 1109.0 W/m2 registrato il 27 giugno alle ore 13.10. • L’indice UV medio mensile oscilla fra 5.3 di dicembre e 8.0 di maggio, con una media annua di 6.6 e con un massimo assoluto di 12.9 registrato il 18 giugno alle ore 12:40. • L’intensità media mensile del vento oscilla tra 1.0 m/s di ottobre e 1.8 m/s di gennaio, con una media annua di 1.5 m/s e con la raffica più intensa di 23.7 m/s registrata il 7 marzo alle ore 1:30. • La direzione del vento presenta una moda da Nord nei mesi di febbraio, novembre. dicembre, da Nord-Est in gennaio, da Sud in giugno , da Sud-ovest d nei mesi di marzo, aprile, maggio. • La pioggia cumulata mensile oscilla tra il valore 0.0 mm di agosto e i 125.8 mm di ottobre, con un valore annuale cumulato di 530.1 mm e con un massimo giornaliero assoluto di 49.5 mm registrato l’11 settembre.

The time-integrated yearly values of North Atlantic Oscillation (INAO) are found to be well correlated to the sea surface temperature. The results give the feasibility of using INAO as a good proxy for climate change and contribute to a more complete picture of the full range of variability inherent in the climate system. Moreover, the extrapolation in the future of the well identified 65-year harmonic in INAO suggests a gradual decline in global warming starting from 2005.

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO but the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is considered the most representative since it links six different meteorological parameters measured over the tropical Pacific. Extreme values of MEI are correlated to the extreme values of atmospheric CO2 concentration rate variations and negatively correlated to equivalent scale extreme values of the length of day (LOD) rate variation. We evaluate a first order conversion function between MEI and the other two indexes using their annual rate of variation. The quantification of the strength of the coupling herein evaluated provides a quantitative measure to test the accuracy of theoretical model predictions. Our results further confirm the idea that the major local and global Earth-atmosphere system mechanisms are significantly coupled and synchronized to each other at multiple scales., Comment: Theoretical Applied Climatology (2012)

The El Nino phenomenon is the Earth’s strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Nino is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Nino event. At present, the next El Nino will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23–27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation, the downward propagating easterly and westerly wind regimes in the equatorial stratosphere, has been investigated according to robust statistics that utilizes the amplitude/vector probable error ratio to provide the confidence level of the investigated harmonic. The amplitude-to-noise ratio is found to be the highest in correspondence of the 28- month harmonic for each examined height; the relative amplitude and phase values are found, respectively, to decrease and increase with the height and to take about a year to descend from 15 to 70 hPa with a progressive lag of about 1 month/km. At the top of the stratosphere, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.

Cross analysis of available historical series of solar wind turbulence, atmospheric circulation, Earth’s rotation and sea surface temperature, when smoothed from the secular trend and periods shorter than 23 years, allowed a cascade climatological model to be set up that integrates the Sun-atmosphere-Earth system as a simple unit and ties solar corpuscular output to sea surface temperature through atmospheric circulation and the Earth’s rotation. An increase in solar corpuscular activity causes a deceleration of zonal atmospheric circulation which, like a torque, causes a deceleration of the Earth’s rotation that, in turn, causes a decrease in sea surface temperature. Application of this holistic model allows us to predict a gradual decline in global warming starting from the current decade.

We investigate the relationship between synoptic/local meteorological patterns and PM10 air pollution levels in the metropolitan area of Naples, Italy. We found that severe air pollution crises occurred when the 850 and 500 hpa geopotential heights and their relative temperatures present maximum values above the city. The most relevant synoptic parameter was the 850 hPa geopotential height, which is located about 1500 m of altitude. We compared local meteorological conditions (specifically wind stress, rain amount and thermal inversion) against the urban air pollution levels from 2009 to 2013. We found several empirical criteria for forecasting high daily PM10 air pollution levels in Naples. Pollution crises occurred when (a) the wind stress was between 1 and 2 m/s, (b) the thermal inversion between two strategic locations was at least 3{\deg}C/200m and (c) it did not significantly rain for at least 7 days. Beside these meteorological conditions, severe pollution crises occurred also during festivals when fireworks and bonfires are lighted, and during anomalous breeze conditions and severe fire accidents. Finally, we propose a basic model to predict PM10 concentration levels from local meteorological conditions that can be easily forecast a few days in advance. The synthetic PM10 record predicted by the model was found to correlate with the PM10 observations with a correlation coefficient close to 0.80 with a confidence greater than 99%. The proposed model is expected to provide reliable information to city officials to carry out practical strategies to mitigate air pollution effects. Although the proposed model equation is calibrated on the topographical and meteorological conditions of Naples, it should be easily adaptable to alternative locations., Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, 1 tables

Two strong heat waves in the summer of 2003 determined elevated heat discomfort conditions all across the Western Europe. In this context, the analysis of hourly Heat Index values in the city of Naples (Southern Italy) showed prolonged heat discomfort conditions during the second half of June 2003 and from the second half of July 2003 up to the first week of September 2003, resulting in highest mortality rate for persons 75 years or more.

Spectral analysis of geomagnetic activity, global air temperature, Earth’s rotation rate and zonal circulation, when smoothed from secular trend and periods shorter than 23 years, shows a concentration of energy around the 60-year period explaining more than 80% of the entire variance. This information has enabled the set-up of a cascade physical model that integrates the Sun-atmosphere-Earth system as a single unit and ties solar corpuscular radiation to global warming through Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation. Our results suggest that changes in geomagnetic activity, and in the Earth’s rotation, could be used as long- and short-term indicators, respectively, of future changes in global air temperature.

Rank-ordering analysis is applied to the intertimes between seismic events recorded in the Apennine belt between 40-42� N and 14-16� E from the 15th century onwards. It shows a power law capable of governing the intertimes between 1529 and 368 months and another power law which approximates a random simulation, for the intertimes shorter than 368 months. Only the first power law allows the computation of the return period of major events. Earthquakes with the same energy that are aligned according to different power laws imply the presence of two different populations, indicating, in turn, that the physics of seismic phenomena in the region examined is not straightforward, that the stress is probably not unidirectional and that it acts on a non-isotropic medium. The most probable estimated intertime value for the next event is found to be equal to 60 ± 20 years.

The floods that have occurred in the upper valley of the Po river (northern Italy) were classified according to an index of strength on the basis of documentary sources available at the meteorological observatory of Moncalieri since 1780. The catalogue was ascertained to be complete only for events classified at least as moderate. Application of Cantor dust statistics and rank-ordering statistics to time-occurrences of floods provided significant evidence of scale-invariance laws that might be very helpful in assessing and reducing future hazards. The increase in the fractal dimension for floods occurring after 1890 is here related to the significant increase in the number of very heavy rainfall episodes measured all over Italy.

Here we study the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area records provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). These records reveal an opposite climatic behavior: since 1978 the Arctic sea-ice area index decreased, that is, the region has warmed, while the Antarctic sea-ice area index increased, that is, the region has cooled. During the last 7 years the Arctic sea-ice area has stabilized while the Antarctic sea-ice area has increased at a rate significantly higher than during the previous decades; that is, the sea-ice area of both regions has experienced a positive acceleration. This result is quite robust because it is confirmed by alternative temperature climate indices of the same regions. We also found that a significant 4-5-year natural oscillation characterizes the climate of these sea-ice polar areas. On the contrary, we found that the CMIP5 general circulation models have predicted significant warming in both polar sea regions and failed to reproduce the strong 4-5-year oscillation. Because the CMIP5 GCM simulations are inconsistent with the observations, we suggest that important natural mechanisms of climate change are missing in the models.

The up^down motion at Campi Flegrei may be due to the internal dynamics of the system and does not necessarily require a push, such as a new input of magma, from outside. The different eruptive phases which have occurred at Campi Flegrei might be related to deterministic chaotic magma flows, similar to those studied in simple experimental systems and theoretically well schematized by the so-called Lorenz equations. Here, different convective cells are hypothesized to operate at decreasing time and spatial scales; they are found to reasonably explain the volcanic history of Campi Flegrei starting from the Campanian Ignimbrite phase, through the Yellow Tuff, up to the Monte Nuovo event and the recent bradyseismic crises. 3 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The locations of measuring stations are often inhomogeneously distributed in space, possibly because of both geophysical interests and access problems. The areal inhomogeneity of a network can be well characterised by its fractal dimension, that is an index ranging progressively from 0 (when all stations are distributed on a single point or on isolated points) to 2 (when all stations are uniformly distributed). Appreciating the scaling region, inside which the station-co-ordinates are fractally distributed, provides valuable information both on the minimum detectable scale and on the minimum resolvable dimension. The increase in the measuring capability of a network must occur through its strategic enlargement resulting in a compromise between the fractal dimension increase and local topographic necessities. An application to a rain-gauge network belonging to the Naples Section of the Italian Hydrographic Service is reported.

—The Southern Tyrrhenian basin is a region characterized by complex tectonics and large-scale geodynamic deformations, and its seismicity has been recently recognized as following fractal laws in its five dimensional set (magnitude, time and space). In particular, the time occurrences of earthquakes are found to follow a significant fractal clustering within the interval ranging from 16 minutes to 24 hours; for longer intervals, the time clustering regime was not significantly different from that of a random process. An artificial neural network is applied here to the same seismicity data set and further evidence of the nonlinear dynamic process, for which the fractal approach failed, is obtained. The monthly values of magnitude predicted by extrapolation are found to be in fair agreement with the historical data.

The high-speed particle flux (solar wind) escaping from the Sun controls the geomagnetic activity at middle latitudes. The latter is found to be negatively correlated to the difference of atmospheric pressure between January and April averaged out in the area of the Northern Adriatic. This difference is again related to the water volume flowing from the South into the Northern Adriatic Sea and is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for the occurrence of strong algal-blooms in summer. A physical model involving geomagnetic activity, mean atmospheric pressured difference between latitude 35 °N and 55 °N in the European area and atmospheric pressure difference from winter to spring in the Northern Adriatic basin is proposed. The possibility of predicting the long-term variations of geomagnetic activity allows one to obtain long-term predictions of winter minus spring pressure and therefore indications of the risk of strong summer-time algal-bloom episodes.

The volcanic seismicity occurring in Campi Flegrei during the 1983–1984 volcanic crisis is quantitatively analyzed by means of fractal (scale invariant) geometry in all its five dimensional set (magnitude, time and space). The significant power laws, relating the number of earthquakes to magnitude, time and space, within a limited range of scales, show that the Campi Flegrei region is in a critical state during the whole crisis.

The equatorial-stratospheric wind that shows a Quasi Biennial Oscillation (22–32 months) has been revisited using a dual statistical detail regarding the search of the dominance harmonics. Data were used from the Freie Universitat of Berlin since 1953 for different heights combining the observations of the three radiosonde stations. The dominant period of 28 months has been reaffirmed but with a discernible amplitude and a phase, respectively, inversely varying with height. Such a cycle suggests an estimate for the coming easterly equatorial wind occurrence at 15 hPa level at the end of 2009. The 28-month harmonic is found to take about a year to descend from 15 to 70 hPa with a progressive lag of about 1 month/km. At the top of the stratosphere, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found. Correlation with sunspot numbers and seasonal rainfall is discussed.

Many point indices have been developed to describe El Nino/Southern Oscillation, but the multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) is considered the most representative since it links six different meteorological parameters measured over the tropical Pacific. Spectral analysis with appropriate data reduction techniques of monthly values of MEI (1950–2008) has allowed the identification of a large 60-month cycle, statistically confident at a level larger than 99%. The highest values of MEI (typical of El Nino events) and the lowest values of MEI (typical of La Nina events) are concordant with respective maxima and minima values of the identified 60-month cycle.

Selected records from hundreds of raingauges located along the river basins of the largest Italian rivers, throughout the whole of Italy, show a fairly similar interannual variability. Analysis of the historical time series of these data determined very significant 11-yr, 22-yr and 44-yr variabilities that are possibly linked to coherent fluctuations in the high-speed solar wind precipitation into the atmosphere. The combined effect of such signals is found to explain 60% of the yearly rainfall variance.

An exhaustive daily rainfall and extreme air temperature series (1883-2000) was reconstructed for Agnone, a small town in Molise (Central Italy). Long-term analysis identified an increasing trend of 1.3 ± 0.4°C per 100 years, statistically confident at the 95% level, only for minimum air temperature, and of a seasonal march, reasonably stationary along the entire investigated interval, explaining more than 50% of the corresponding monthly variance, with maxima in November and July for rainfall and air temperature, respectively. Daily clustering analysis evidenced scale-invariant properties, largely dependent on the threshold value, for all the investigated parameters.

We are experiencing a period of intense anthropocentrism: humans flatter themselves they can govern the thermal machine of the ocean-atmosphere system and build models of atmospheric circulation (that solve hundreds of non-linear equations for each box of a three-dimensional grid covering the globe) to demonstrate that Earth's recent warming is attributable to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the results of such a reductionist approach are questionable, since the atmosphere and oceans form a complex interactive system that cannot be recreated in a laboratory experiment, and where the many physical and chemical processes are regulated by dynamic and thermodynamic parameters, interconnected in a non-linear way, and there are various positive and negative feedback processes. Only a holistic approach that analyses the system in its entirety, and drastically reduces the number of degree of freedom, can provide information on the way in which the global environmental system operates. When the Sun, atmospheric circulation, Earth's rotation, and sea temperature have been investigated as a single unit, the linkage between the Sun and climate is confirmed (Mazzarella, 2007, 2008); application of this integrated model provides a forecast estimate for a gradual cooling of the Earth's atmosphere in this decade.

Volcanic events have been, up to now, traditionally predicted through deterministic or probabilistic linear methods. Here a new non-linear approach is carried out, based on artificial neural networks (ANN), a non-linear physical mathematical model to interconnect data emulating animal brain behaviour. Being an artificial intelligence system, this model is able, once both the observed data records and starting values of the network’s parameters have been entered, to self-guide itself and supply the best outputs with respect to the input parameters. On varying the starting values, the exit values change too, the degree of improvement being measurable quantitatively. This model has been applied to four different volcanoes (Vesuvius, Phlegraean Fields, Etna, Hawaii) with different volcanic characteristics, in order to measure the effectiveness of the method as a general one. For this purpose, data regarding seismicity or ground displacements (vertical, radial, tangential components) were processed and predicted by means of ANN. The results are encouraging and, in many cases, in very fair agreement with the observed data.

At Vesuvius, the intervals between final effusive eruptions since 1631 AD and those between successive plinian eruptions since 25 000 yr BP follow the same power law, when separately ranked in decreasing order. So, shifts from small to large scales are possible and this might be very helpful for the assessment of hazards of future strong volcanic activity.

Allo scopo di catturare i processi dinamici non lineari intrinseci al Vesuvio su scale temporali di lungo periodo, si è realizzato un sistema ibrido costituito da una Rete Neurale Artificiale di tipo Multi-Layer Perceptron e da un Algoritmo Evolutivo di tipo Breeder, e lo si è applicato alla ben documentata attività eruttiva esibita dal Vesuvio a partire dal 1631, in termini di serie temporale del Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). I valori previsti dal sistema nel periodo di train e in quello di test ben si adattano a quelli storici.

The catalogue of eruptions occurring at Vesuvio during the period 1631–1944 is shown to be complete for the range Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) between 1.5 and 4.0. The time clustering of eruptive events, as indicated by the catalogue, shows a fractal dimension and a scaling region largely dependent on VEI. This might reflect the turbulence of the magma flowing under the volcano which is responsible for cascading of energy from large to small eddies.

The digitized lava-flow margins of well-defined extended eruptions occurring at Vesuvio in 1760, 1794, 1861, 1906, 1929 and 1944 are found to follow fractal behaviours inside a scaling region enclosed between 50 and 400 m. Although the invariance region is well respected, the fractal dimension D varies from one lava flow to another: the more irregular the lava-flow margin, the larger the value of D. The ascertained dependence of D on the duration of premonitory activity, preceding the emission of lavas, might provide some insight into the inner volcanic processes before the eruption and into the dynamical processes operating during flow emplacement.

Historical daily rainfall events, measured at different Italian stations, are found to follow fractal relationships within specific time ranges. It is found that the fractal dimension D describes the strength of the clustering of daily rainfall events in a more realistic way than the commonly used number of daily rainfall events: the more isolated the clusters, the smaller the value of D. The large dependence of D and of the specific scaling region on the threshold intensity is an indication of a more complex property of the rainfall called multifractality: a large-scale rain-field is successively broken into smaller and smaller eddies, each receiving an amount of the total field specified by a multiplicative parameter. Circumstantial evidence indicates, moreover, that the significant secular decreases of D over the Mediterranean area can be reasonably related to the simultaneous coherent decrease of zonal atmospheric circulation.

High-quality shallow, intermediate and deep shocks from the Southern Tyrrhenian area (interval: 1985-1995) are analysed to draw inferences on the complex shape of the underlying Benioff zone. The hypothesis of an active NW-oriented subduction of the lithosphere, generated and stressed by the opening of the Tyrrhenian basin, is confirmed. The fractal behaviour of seismic data in its five-dimensional set (magnitude, time and space) is significantly identified, even if within specific ranges. The light but significant variations of the different fractal dimensions measured during more recent years is explained in terms of a reduction in the fracturing degree of the Southern Tyrrhenian crust.

The catalogue of volcanic earthquakes recorded at Vesuvio (1972–1993) is shown to be complete for events with magnitude enclosed between 1.8 and 3.0. Such a result is converted in significant fractal laws (power laws) relating the distribution of earthquakes to the distribution of energy release, seismic moment, size of fractured zone and linear dimension of faults. The application of the Cantor dust model to time sequence of Vesuvio seismic and eruptive events allows the determination of significant time-clustering fractal structures. In particular, the Vesuvio eruptive activity shows a double-regime process with a stronger clustering on short-time scales than on long-time scales. The complexity of the Vesuvio system does not depend on the number of geological, geophysical and geochemical factors that govern it, but mainly on the number of their interconnections, on the intensity of such linkages and on the feed-back processes. So, all the identified fractal features are taken as evidence that the Vesuvio system is in a self-organized critical state i.e., in a marginally stable state in which a small perturbation can start a chain reaction that can lead to catastrophe. After the catatrophe, the system regulates itself and begins a new cycle, not necessarily periodic, that will end with a successive catastrophe. The variations of the fractal dimension and of the specific scale ranges, in which the fractal behaviour is found to hold, serve as possible volcanic predictors reflecting changes of the same volcanic process.

A highly significant lunar nodal tidal term has been obtained in climatic (atmospheric pressure, rainfall, evaporation, river discharge, air temperature) and oceanic (sea surface temperature, mean sea level) data from the Western Mediterranean area. Analysis of the waveforms for the examined parameters shows a sudden switch of phase at the turn of the century. A physical explanation for both the origin and the characteristics of the obtained waves is proposed.

The altitudes of the Sun and Moon have been calculated for the 541 great earthquakes (those with magnitude ⩾ 7.5) that occurred between 1897 and 1985. There is a tendency for more earthquakes to occur when the Sun or Moon is at an altitude of 30–50° above the horizon than would be expected by chance. Though neither the lunar nor the solar result is of high significance in itself, the experiments are independent so they may be combined, when they yield a significant result.

An 11-y modulation of large Italian earthquakes has been successfully identified and found to be positively linked to sunspot activity. The seismic activity appears to be modulated by the 11-y sunspot cycle through the coherent variation of geomagnetic activity. It is proposed that the two phenomena are linked by the influence of a magnetostriction process on stresses in the crust. An implication of this model is that geomagnetic storms may directly trigger large earthquakes.

In order to collect further information about recent microclimatic changes in urban areas, an analysis of the secular variations of rainfall intensity has been worked out. A significant increase in rainfall due to urbanization process has been ascertained in the last years. A detailed investigation was performed by studying the records of rainfalls, both showery and continuous, in Naples. The rainfalls were separately examined because of their different effect on the city: the former being more localized, the latter generally extending over wide areas. The analysis shows that a major portion of variance in continuous rainfall rate, in cases of static instability and low surface wind intensity, exhibits a persistence that can be described by a first-order Markov process. Moreover, for the continuous rainfalls, a method for possible prediction of the total mean rainfall rate is indicated.

The determination of lunar tides obtained by combination of a filtering process and the fixed lunar age technique is proposed. It is shown that such a method allows a reduction of the signal-to-noise ratio without altering the amplitude and the phase angle of the signal. It consequently allows the significant determination of the lunar semidiurnal component M 2 from the series of data shorter than those required by other methods and the deduction of other interesting lunisolar components which have not previously been significantly determined in surface pressure and temperature data. The analysis of the data for Gan, Vesuvian Observatory and the Eiffel Tower have provided new determinations of L 2 ( p ) and have allowed comparison between the results obtained by the present and other methods.