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2. Health economic analysis of polygenic risk score use in primary prevention of coronary artery disease - A system dynamics model.

Author

Vernon, ST, Brentnall, S, Currie, DJ, Peng, C, Gray, MP, Botta, G, Mujwara, D, Nicholls, SJ, Grieve, SM, Redfern, J, Chow, C, Levesque, J-F, Meikle, PJ, Jennings, G, Ademi, Z, Wilson, A, Figtree, GA, Vernon, ST, Brentnall, S, Currie, DJ, Peng, C, Gray, MP, Botta, G, Mujwara, D, Nicholls, SJ, Grieve, SM, Redfern, J, Chow, C, Levesque, J-F, Meikle, PJ, Jennings, G, Ademi, Z, Wilson, A, and Figtree, GA

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Primary prevention programs utilising traditional risk scores fail to identify all individuals who suffer acute cardiovascular events. We aimed to model the impact and cost effectiveness of incorporating a Polygenic risk scores (PRS) into the cardiovascular disease CVD primary prevention program in Australia, using a whole-of-system model. METHODS: System dynamics models, encompassing acute and chronic CVD care in the Australian healthcare setting, assessing the cost-effectiveness of incorporating a CAD-PRS in the primary prevention setting. The time horizon was 10-years. RESULTS: Pragmatically incorporating a CAD-PRS in the Australian primary prevention setting in middle-aged individuals already attending a Heart Health Check (HHC) who are determined to be at low or moderate risk based on the 5-year Framingham risk score (FRS), with conservative assumptions regarding uptake of PRS, could have prevented 2, 052 deaths over 10-years, and resulted in 24, 085 QALYs gained at a cost of $19, 945 per QALY with a net benefit of $724 million. If all Australians overs the age of 35 years old had their FRS and PRS performed, and acted upon, 12, 374 deaths and 60, 284 acute coronary events would be prevented, with 183, 682 QALYs gained at a cost of $18, 531 per QALY, with a net benefit of $5, 780 million. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating a CAD-PRS in a contemporary primary prevention setting in Australia would result in substantial health and societal benefits and is cost-effective. The broader the uptake of CAD-PRS in the primary prevention setting in middle-aged Australians, the greater the impact and the more cost-effective the strategy.

Published
2024

6. Impact of epilepsy surgery on quality of life: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Author

Shakhatreh, L, Foster, E, Siriratnam, P, Neal, A, Carney, PW, Jackson, GD, O'Brien, TJ, Kwan, P, Chen, Z, Ademi, Z, Shakhatreh, L, Foster, E, Siriratnam, P, Neal, A, Carney, PW, Jackson, GD, O'Brien, TJ, Kwan, P, Chen, Z, and Ademi, Z

Abstract

Improved quality of life (QoL) is an important outcome goal following epilepsy surgery. This study aims to quantify change in QoL for adults with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) who undergo epilepsy surgery, and to explore clinicodemographic factors associated with these changes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. All studies reporting pre- and post-epilepsy surgery QoL scores in adults with DRE via validated instruments were included. Meta-analysis assessed the postsurgery change in QoL. Meta-regression assessed the effect of postoperative seizure outcomes on postoperative QoL as well as change in pre- and postoperative QoL scores. A total of 3774 titles and abstracts were reviewed, and ultimately 16 studies, comprising 1182 unique patients, were included. Quality of Life in Epilepsy Inventory-31 item (QOLIE-31) meta-analysis included six studies, and QOLIE-89 meta-analysis included four studies. Postoperative change in raw score was 20.5 for QOLIE-31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.9-30.1, I2 = 95.5) and 12.1 for QOLIE-89 (95% CI = 8.0-16.1, I2 = 55.0%). This corresponds to clinically meaningful QOL improvements. Meta-regression demonstrated a higher postoperative QOLIE-31 score as well as change in pre- and postoperative QOLIE-31 score among studies of cohorts with higher proportions of patients with favorable seizure outcomes. At an individual study level, preoperative absence of mood disorders, better preoperative cognition, fewer trials of antiseizure medications before surgery, high levels of conscientiousness and openness to experience at the baseline, engagement in paid employment before and after surgery, and not being on antidepressants following surgery were associated with improved postoperative QoL. This study demonstrates the potential for epilepsy surgery to provide clinically meaningful improvements in QoL, as well as identifies clinicodemographic factors a

Published
2023

7. Considering equity and cost-effectiveness in assessing a parenting intervention to promote early childhood development in rural Vietnam

Author

Baek, Y, Ademi, Z, Tran, T, Owen, A, Nguyen, T, Luchters, S, Hipgrave, DB, Hanieh, S, Tran, H, Biggs, B-A, Fisher, J, Baek, Y, Ademi, Z, Tran, T, Owen, A, Nguyen, T, Luchters, S, Hipgrave, DB, Hanieh, S, Tran, H, Biggs, B-A, and Fisher, J

Abstract

Considering equity in early childhood development (ECD) is important to ensure healthy development for every child. Equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis can further guide decision makers to maximize outcomes with limited resources while promoting equity. This cost-effectiveness study aimed to examine the equity impacts of a multicomponent ECD intervention in rural Vietnam. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the intervention with a 30-month time horizon from the service provider and household perspectives with equity considerations. Data were from a cluster-randomized controlled trial comparing the intervention with the local standard of care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per child cognitive development score gained were estimated by household wealth quintile and maternal education level, adjusted for cluster effects and baseline characteristics such as maternal parity and age. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs, and non-parametric cluster bootstrapping was used to examine uncertainty around ICERs. Children in the intervention had higher cognitive development scores than those in the control arm across all subgroups. Based on intervention recurrent cost, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children from the poorest quintile (-US$6) compared to those from the richest quintile (US$16). Similarly, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children whose mothers had the lowest education level (-US$0.02) than those with mothers who had the highest education level (US$7). Even though our findings should be interpreted with caution due to the insufficient study power, the findings suggest that the intervention could promote equity while improving child cognitive development with greater cost-effectiveness in disadvantaged groups.

Published
2023

8. Projecting the incidence and costs of major cardiovascular and kidney complications of type 2 diabetes with widespread SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Author

Morton, J, Marquina, C, Shaw, JE, Liew, D, Polkinghorne, KR, Ademi, Z, Magliano, DJ, Morton, J, Marquina, C, Shaw, JE, Liew, D, Polkinghorne, KR, Ademi, Z, and Magliano, DJ

Abstract

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Whether sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) are cost-effective based solely on their cardiovascular and kidney benefits is unknown. We projected the health and economic outcomes due to myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among people with type 2 diabetes, with and without CVD, under scenarios of widespread use of these drugs. METHODS: We designed a microsimulation model using real-world data that captured CVD and ESKD morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2040. The populations and transition probabilities were derived by linking the Australian Diabetes Registry (1.1 million people with type 2 diabetes) to hospital admissions databases, the National Death Index and the ESKD Registry using data from 2010 to 2019. We modelled four interventions: increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the total population with type 2 diabetes, and increase in use of SGLT2is or GLP-1 RAs to 75% of the secondary prevention population (i.e. people with type 2 diabetes and prior CVD). All interventions were compared with current use of SGLT2is (20% of the total population) and GLP-1 RAs (5% of the total population). Outcomes of interest included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs (from the Australian public healthcare perspective) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We applied 5% annual discounting for health economic outcomes. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at AU$28,000 per QALY gained. RESULTS: The numbers of QALYs gained from 2020 to 2040 with increased SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA use in the total population (n=1.1 million in 2020; n=1.5 million in 2040) were 176,446 and 200,932, respectively, compared with current use. Net cost differences were AU$4.2 billion for SGLT2is and AU$20.2 billion for GLP-1 RAs, and the ICERs were AU$23,717 and AU$100,705 per QALY gained, respectively. In the secondary preve

Published
2023

9. Promoting early childhood development in Viet Nam: cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a cluster-randomised trial.

Author

Baek, Y, Ademi, Z, Tran, T, Owen, A, Nguyen, T, Luchters, S, Hipgrave, DB, Hanieh, S, Tran, H, Biggs, B-A, Fisher, J, Baek, Y, Ademi, Z, Tran, T, Owen, A, Nguyen, T, Luchters, S, Hipgrave, DB, Hanieh, S, Tran, H, Biggs, B-A, and Fisher, J

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Economic evaluations are critical to ensure effective resource use to implement and scale up child development interventions. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent early childhood development intervention in rural Viet Nam. METHODS: We did a cost-effectiveness study alongside a cluster-randomised trial with a 30-month time horizon. The study included 669 mothers from 42 communes in the intervention group, and 576 mothers from 42 communes in the control group. Mothers in the intervention group attended Learning Clubs sessions from mid-pregnancy to 12 months after delivery. The primary outcomes were child cognitive, language, motor, and social-emotional development at age 2 years. In this analysis, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the intervention compared with the usual standard of care from the service provider and household perspectives. We used non-parametric bootstrapping to examine uncertainty, and applied a 3% discount rate. FINDINGS: The total intervention cost was US$169 898 (start-up cost $133 692 and recurrent cost $36 206). The recurrent cost per child was $58 (1 341 741 Vietnamese dong). Considering the recurrent cost alone, the base-case ICER was $14 and mean ICER of 1000 bootstrap samples was $14 (95% CI -0·48 to 30) per cognitive development score gained with a 3% discount rate to costs. The ICER per language and motor development score gained was $22 and $20, respectively, with a 3% discount rate to costs. INTERPRETATION: The intervention was cost-effective: the ICER per child cognitive development score gained was 0·5% of Viet Nam's gross domestic product per capita, alongside other benefits in language and motor development. This finding supports the scaling up of this intervention in similar socioeconomic settings. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Grand Challenges Canada. TRANSLATION: For the Vietnamese translation of the abstract see

Published
2023

10. The burden and trend of diseases and their risk factors in Australia, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Islam, SMS, Uddin, R, Maddison, R, Ball, K, Livingstone, KM, Khan, A, Salmon, J, Ackerman, IN, Adair, T, Adegboye, OA, Ademi, Z, Adhikary, RK, Ahinkorah, BO, Alam, K, Alene, KA, Alif, SM, Amare, AT, Ameyaw, EK, Aminde, LN, Anderlini, D, Angell, B, Ansar, A, Antony, B, Anyasodor, AE, Arnet, VK, Astell-Burt, T, Atorkey, P, Awoke, MA, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Bagheri, N, Barnett, A, Baune, BT, Bhandari, D, Bhaskar, S, Biswas, RK, Borschmann, R, Boufous, S, Briggs, AM, Buchbinder, R, Bulamu, NB, Burns, RA, Carvalho, AF, Cerin, E, Cherbuin, N, Chowdhury, EK, Ciobanu, LG, Clark, SR, Cross, M, Dadi, AF, de Courten, B, De Leo, D, de Luca, K, Doyle, KE, Edvardsson, D, Edvardsson, K, Efendi, F, Endalamaw, A, Fauk, NK, Feng, X, Fitzgibbon, BM, Flavel, J, Gebreyohannes, EAA, Gesesew, HA, Gill, TK, Godinho, MA, Gupta, B, Gupta, VK, Hambisa, MT, Hamiduzzaman, M, Hankey, GJ, Hassanian-Moghaddam, H, Hay, SI, Hebert, JJ, Huda, MM, Huda, TM, Islam, MM, Islam, MS, Islam, RM, Kaambwa, B, Kandel, H, Kassie, GM, Kelly, JT, Kerr, JA, Kiross, GT, Knibbs, LD, Kulkarni, VV, Lalloo, R, Le, LKD, Leigh, J, Leung, J, Li, S, Mahumud, RA, Mamun, AA, Marzan, MB, McGrath, JJ, Mehlman, ML, Meretoja, A, Mersha, AG, Miller, TR, Mitchell, PB, Mokdad, AH, Morawska, L, Mpundu-Kaambwa, C, Mude, W, Murray, CJL, Kandel, SN, Nyanhanda, T, Obamiro, KO, Peden, AE, Pesudovs, K, Polkinghorne, KR, Rahman, A, Rahman, MA, Ratan, ZA, Rawal, L, Reifels, L, Renzaho, AMN, Robinson, SR, Roshandel, D, Rumisha, SF, Saunders, PA, Sawyer, SM, Schlaich, MP, Schutte, AE, Seidu, A-A, Sharma, S, Shorofi, SA, Siabani, S, Singh, A, Singh, BB, Slater, H, Stephens, JH, Stokes, MA, Subedi, NS, Sumi, CD, Sun, J, Sundstrom, J, Szoeke, CEI, Tadakamadla, SK, Takahashi, K, Taylor, J, Tessema, MBT, Thrift, AG, To, QG, Tollosa, DN, Tran, MTN, Vandelanotte, C, Varghese, BM, Veerman, LJ, Wang, N, Ward, P, Woodward, M, Wubishet, BL, Xu, X, Ye, P, Bin Zaman, S, Zarghami, A, Zhang, J, Crawford, DA, Islam, SMS, Uddin, R, Maddison, R, Ball, K, Livingstone, KM, Khan, A, Salmon, J, Ackerman, IN, Adair, T, Adegboye, OA, Ademi, Z, Adhikary, RK, Ahinkorah, BO, Alam, K, Alene, KA, Alif, SM, Amare, AT, Ameyaw, EK, Aminde, LN, Anderlini, D, Angell, B, Ansar, A, Antony, B, Anyasodor, AE, Arnet, VK, Astell-Burt, T, Atorkey, P, Awoke, MA, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayano, G, Bagheri, N, Barnett, A, Baune, BT, Bhandari, D, Bhaskar, S, Biswas, RK, Borschmann, R, Boufous, S, Briggs, AM, Buchbinder, R, Bulamu, NB, Burns, RA, Carvalho, AF, Cerin, E, Cherbuin, N, Chowdhury, EK, Ciobanu, LG, Clark, SR, Cross, M, Dadi, AF, de Courten, B, De Leo, D, de Luca, K, Doyle, KE, Edvardsson, D, Edvardsson, K, Efendi, F, Endalamaw, A, Fauk, NK, Feng, X, Fitzgibbon, BM, Flavel, J, Gebreyohannes, EAA, Gesesew, HA, Gill, TK, Godinho, MA, Gupta, B, Gupta, VK, Hambisa, MT, Hamiduzzaman, M, Hankey, GJ, Hassanian-Moghaddam, H, Hay, SI, Hebert, JJ, Huda, MM, Huda, TM, Islam, MM, Islam, MS, Islam, RM, Kaambwa, B, Kandel, H, Kassie, GM, Kelly, JT, Kerr, JA, Kiross, GT, Knibbs, LD, Kulkarni, VV, Lalloo, R, Le, LKD, Leigh, J, Leung, J, Li, S, Mahumud, RA, Mamun, AA, Marzan, MB, McGrath, JJ, Mehlman, ML, Meretoja, A, Mersha, AG, Miller, TR, Mitchell, PB, Mokdad, AH, Morawska, L, Mpundu-Kaambwa, C, Mude, W, Murray, CJL, Kandel, SN, Nyanhanda, T, Obamiro, KO, Peden, AE, Pesudovs, K, Polkinghorne, KR, Rahman, A, Rahman, MA, Ratan, ZA, Rawal, L, Reifels, L, Renzaho, AMN, Robinson, SR, Roshandel, D, Rumisha, SF, Saunders, PA, Sawyer, SM, Schlaich, MP, Schutte, AE, Seidu, A-A, Sharma, S, Shorofi, SA, Siabani, S, Singh, A, Singh, BB, Slater, H, Stephens, JH, Stokes, MA, Subedi, NS, Sumi, CD, Sun, J, Sundstrom, J, Szoeke, CEI, Tadakamadla, SK, Takahashi, K, Taylor, J, Tessema, MBT, Thrift, AG, To, QG, Tollosa, DN, Tran, MTN, Vandelanotte, C, Varghese, BM, Veerman, LJ, Wang, N, Ward, P, Woodward, M, Wubishet, BL, Xu, X, Ye, P, Bin Zaman, S, Zarghami, A, Zhang, J, and Crawford, DA

Abstract

BACKGROUND: A comprehensive understanding of temporal trends in the disease burden in Australia is lacking, and these trends are required to inform health service planning and improve population health. We explored the burden and trends of diseases and their risk factors in Australia from 1990 to 2019 through a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: In this systematic analysis for GBD 2019, we estimated all-cause mortality using the standardised GBD methodology. Data sources included primarily vital registration systems with additional data from sample registrations, censuses, surveys, surveillance, registries, and verbal autopsies. A composite measure of health loss caused by fatal and non-fatal disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) was calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs). Comparisons between Australia and 14 other high-income countries were made. FINDINGS: Life expectancy at birth in Australia improved from 77·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·9-77·1) in 1990 to 82·9 years (82·7-83·1) in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 637·7 deaths (95% UI 634·1-641·3) to 389·2 deaths (381·4-397·6) per 100 000 population. In 2019, non-communicable diseases remained the major cause of mortality in Australia, accounting for 90·9% (95% UI 90·4-91·9) of total deaths, followed by injuries (5·7%, 5·3-6·1) and communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (3·3%, 2·9-3·7). Ischaemic heart disease, self-harm, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stroke, and colorectal cancer were the leading causes of YLLs. The leading causes of YLDs were low back pain, depressive disorders, other musculoskeletal diseases, falls, and anxiety disorders. The leading risk factors for DALYs were high BMI, smoking, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and drug use. Between 1990 and 2019, all-cause DALYs decreased

Published
2023

11. Long-term cost-effectiveness of implementing a lifestyle intervention during pregnancy to reduce the incidence of gestational diabetes and type 2 diabetes.

Author

Lloyd, M, Morton, J, Teede, H, Marquina, C, Abushanab, D, Magliano, DJ, Callander, EJ, Ademi, Z, Lloyd, M, Morton, J, Teede, H, Marquina, C, Abushanab, D, Magliano, DJ, Callander, EJ, and Ademi, Z

Abstract

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine the long-term cost-effectiveness and return on investment of implementing a structured lifestyle intervention to reduce excessive gestational weight gain and associated incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to compare the health and cost-effectiveness outcomes for (1) a structured lifestyle intervention during pregnancy to prevent GDM and subsequent type 2 diabetes; and (2) current usual antenatal care. Life table modelling was used to capture type 2 diabetes morbidity, mortality and quality-adjusted life years over a lifetime horizon for all women giving birth in Australia. Costs incorporated both healthcare and societal perspectives. The intervention effect was derived from published meta-analyses. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to capture the impact of uncertainty in the model. RESULTS: The model projected a 10% reduction in the number of women subsequently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes through implementation of the lifestyle intervention compared with current usual care. The total net incremental cost of intervention was approximately AU$70 million, and the cost savings from the reduction in costs of antenatal care for GDM, birth complications and type 2 diabetes management were approximately AU$85 million. The intervention was dominant (cost-saving) compared with usual care from a healthcare perspective, and returned AU$1.22 (95% CI 0.53, 2.13) per dollar invested. The results were robust to sensitivity analysis, and remained cost-saving or highly cost-effective in each of the scenarios explored. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates significant cost savings from implementation of a structured lifestyle intervention during pregnancy, due to a reduction in adverse health outcomes for women during both the perinatal period and over their lifetime.

Published
2023

32. Personal healthcare costs borne by younger people living with arthritis in Australia: An exploratory observational study

Author

Berkovic, D, Ayton, D, Briggs, AM, Ademi, Z, Ackerman, IN, Berkovic, D, Ayton, D, Briggs, AM, Ademi, Z, and Ackerman, IN

Abstract

Arthritis is a long-term musculoskeletal disease, requiring ongoing management. However, the financial burden of managing arthritis is under-explored and is yet to be quantified from the perspective of individuals with the condition. Using an exploratory observational design, this study aimed to quantify arthritis-related costs borne by a sample of working-age adults aged 18-50 years who responded to the study advertisement. Participants completed a weekly cost diary for 6 weeks, detailing their personal non-reimbursed (out-of-pocket) arthritis-related costs. Financial distress was measured using the InCharge Financial Distress/Financial Well-Being Scale. Costs data were analysed descriptively. Mann-Whitney U tests were used to examine relationships between residential location or employment status and out-of-pocket costs. Linear regression and Spearman's rho were used to estimate relationships between age or years since diagnosis and out-of-pocket costs, and between out-of-pocket costs and financial distress respectively. Sixteen adults (median age 40 years, 100% female) with a range of arthritis conditions (median (IQR): 8 (7.5) years since diagnosis) including rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and ankylosing spondylitis completed the six-week cost diary. All participants reported out-of-pocket expenditure related to arthritis. The median per-person expenditure across the 6 weeks was AUD 1635. The highest reported costs per participant across the 6 weeks were for medical expenses (median AUD 197) and allied health appointments (median AUD 190). In total, the cohort spent AUD 15,272 across the study period. Perceived financial distress was high: median (IQR) financial distress 7 (2.25) on a 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest) scale. Positive relationships between age and costs, and between costs and financial distress were identified. These findings help us understand fiscal expenditure and related distress relevant to younger individuals with arthr

Published
2022

34. Lifetime impact of being underweight or overweight/obese during childhood in Vietnam

Author

Baek, Y, Owen, AJ, Fisher, J, Tran, T, Ademi, Z, Baek, Y, Owen, AJ, Fisher, J, Tran, T, and Ademi, Z

Abstract

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about lifetime burden of child malnutrition. This study aimed to estimate the lifetime impact of being underweight or overweight/obese during childhood in Vietnam. METHODS: We developed a life table model in combination with a Markov model for Vietnamese children aged 5-19 years and simulated until they reached 75 years of age or died using published data. The starting year was 2019 and the model estimated number of deaths, years of life lived and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) with an annual discount rate of 3%. We performed scenario, one-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of uncertainties in input parameters. RESULTS: The model estimated 9.68 million deaths (6.44 million men and 3.24 million women), 622 million years of life lived (317 million men and 305 million women), and 601 million QALYs (308 million men and 293 million women). Scenario analyses showed that the reduction in either underweight or overweight/obesity alone, and reduction in both underweight and overweight/obesity resulted in fewer deaths, more years of life lived and more QALYs gained. In the scenario where everyone was a healthy weight, the model estimated 577,267 fewer deaths (6.0% less), 2 million more years of life lived (0.3% more), and 3 million QALYs gained (0.6% more) over base-case results which represents current situation in Vietnam. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that addressing underweight and overweight/obesity will contribute to reducing deaths and increasing years of life lived and QALYs. Policies and interventions in alignment with Sustainable Development Goals to address underweight and overweight/obesity are necessary to achieve health for all.

Published
2022

35. Prospective multisite cohort study of patient-reported outcomes in adults with new-onset seizures

Author

Foster, E, Chen, Z, Vaughan, DN, Tailby, C, Carney, PW, D'Souza, W, Yong, HMA, Nicolo, J-P, Pellinen, J, de Albornoz, SC, Liew, D, O'Brien, TJ, Kwan, P, Ademi, Z, Foster, E, Chen, Z, Vaughan, DN, Tailby, C, Carney, PW, D'Souza, W, Yong, HMA, Nicolo, J-P, Pellinen, J, de Albornoz, SC, Liew, D, O'Brien, TJ, Kwan, P, and Ademi, Z

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: New-onset seizures affect up to 10% of people over their lifetime, however, their health economic impact has not been well-studied. This prospective multicenter study will collect patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) from adults with new-onset seizures seen in six Seizure Clinics across Melbourne, Australia and The University of Colorado, USA. METHODS: Approximately 450 eligible patients will be enrolled in the study at or following their initial attendance to Seizure Clinics at the study hospitals. Inclusion criteria for the study group are those with new-onset acute symptomatic seizures, new-onset unprovoked seizures, and new-onset epilepsy. Inclusion criteria for the three comparator groups are those with noncardiac syncope, those with psychogenic nonepileptic seizures, as well as published PROMs data from the Australian general population. Exclusion criteria are those aged less than 18 years, those with a preexisting epilepsy diagnosis, and those with intellectual disabilities or other impairments which would preclude them from comprehending and completing the questionnaires. Patients will complete eight online questionnaires regarding the effect that their seizures (or seizure mimics) have had on various aspects of their life. These questionnaires will be readministered at 6 and 12 months. Patients with new-diagnosis epilepsy will also be asked to share the reasons why they have accepted or declined antiseizure medications. ANALYSIS: Primary outcome measures will be quality of life, work productivity, informal care needs, and mood, at baseline compared to 6 and 12 months later for those with new-onset seizures and comparing these outcomes to those in the three comparator groups. Secondary outcomes include mapping of QoLIE-31 to the EQ-5D-5L in epilepsy, modelling indirect costs of new-onset seizures, and exploring why patients may or may not wish to take antiseizure medications. SIGNIFICANCE: These data will form an evidence-base for future stud

Published
2022

36. The Cost-Effectiveness of Supplemental Carnosine in Type 2 Diabetes

Author

Menon, K, de Courten, B, Magliano, DJ, Ademi, Z, Liew, D, Zomer, E, Menon, K, de Courten, B, Magliano, DJ, Ademi, Z, Liew, D, and Zomer, E

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the cost-effectiveness of 1 g daily of carnosine (an over the counter supplement) in addition to standard care for the management of type 2 diabetes and compare it to standard care alone. Dynamic multistate life table models were constructed in order to estimate both clinical outcomes and costs of Australians aged 18 years and above with and without type 2 diabetes over a ten-year period, 2020 to 2029. The dynamic nature of the model allowed for population change over time (migration and deaths) and accounted for the development of new cases of diabetes. The three health states were 'Alive without type 2 diabetes', 'Alive with type 2 diabetes' and 'Dead'. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were obtained from published sources. The main outcome of interest was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per year of life saved (YoLS) and cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Over the ten-year period, the addition of carnosine to standard care treatment resulted in ICERs (discounted) of AUD 34,836 per YoLS and AUD 43,270 per QALY gained. Assuming the commonly accepted willingness to pay threshold of AUD 50,000 per QALY gained, supplemental dietary carnosine may be a cost-effective treatment option for people with type 2 diabetes in Australia.

Published
2022

37. Integrating the Biology of Cardiovascular Disease into the Epidemiology of Economic Decision Modelling via Mendelian Randomisation

Author

Ademi, Z, Morton, J, Liew, D, Nicholls, SJ, Zoungas, S, Ference, BA, Ademi, Z, Morton, J, Liew, D, Nicholls, SJ, Zoungas, S, and Ference, BA

Abstract

Health economic analyses are essential for health services research, providing decision-makers and payers with evidence about the value of interventions relative to their opportunity cost. However, many health economic approaches are still limited, especially regarding the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this article, we discuss some limitations to current health economic models and then outline an approach to address these via the incorporation of genomics into the design of health economic models for CVD. We propose that when a randomised clinical trial is not possible or practical, health economic models for primary prevention of CVD can be based on Mendelian randomisation analyses, a technique to assess causality in observational data. We discuss the advantages of this approach, such as integrating well-known disease biology into health economic models and how this may overcome current statistical approaches to assessing the benefits of interventions. We argue that this approach may provide the economic argument for integrating genomics into clinical practice and the efficient targeting of newer therapeutics, transforming our approach to the primary prevention of CVD, thereby moving from reactive to preventive healthcare. We end by discussing some limitations and potential pitfalls of this approach.

Published
2022

38. Estimating the benefits of obesity prevention on productivity: an Australian perspective

Author

Menon, K, de Courten, B, Ademi, Z, Owen, AJ, Liew, D, Zomer, E, Menon, K, de Courten, B, Ademi, Z, Owen, AJ, Liew, D, and Zomer, E

Abstract

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity poses one of the biggest public health challenges globally. In addition to the high costs of obesity to the healthcare system, obesity also impacts work productivity. We aimed to estimate the benefits of preventing obesity in terms of years of life, productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) and associated costs over 10 years. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Dynamic life table models were constructed to estimate years of life and PALYs saved if all new cases of obesity were prevented among Australians aged 20-69 years from 2021 to 2030. Life tables were sex specific and the population was classified into normal weight, overweight and obese. The model simulation was first undertaken assuming currently observed age-specific incidences of obesity, and then repeated assuming all new cases of obesity were reduced by 2 and 5%. The differences in outcomes (years of life, PALYs, and costs) between the two modelled outputs reflected the potential benefits that could be achieved through obesity prevention. All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum. RESULTS: Over the next 10 years, 132 million years of life and 81 million PALYs would be lived by Australians aged 20-69 years, contributing AU$17.0 trillion to the Australian economy in terms of GDP. A 5% reduction in new cases of obesity led to a gain of 663 years of life and 1229 PALYs, equivalent to AU$262 million in GDP. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of obesity is projected to result in substantial economic gains due to improved health and productivity. This further emphasises the need for public health prevention strategies to reduce this growing epidemic.

Published
2022

39. Projected Return on Investment From Implementation of a Lifestyle Intervention to Reduce Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes

Author

Lloyd, M, Teede, H, Bailey, C, Callander, E, Ademi, Z, Lloyd, M, Teede, H, Bailey, C, Callander, E, and Ademi, Z

Abstract

IMPORTANCE: Structured antenatal diet and physical activity interventions have been shown to be associated with reduced adverse pregnancy outcomes and recommended to be routinely offered to all pregnant women. The health cost implications of population-level implementation are unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the budget impact associated with integrating structured diet and physical activity interventions into routine antenatal care. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This economic evaluation was conducted from the perspective of Australian health funders. An open-source decision-tree model was constructed to compare the projected budget outcomes of implementing lifestyle intervention vs usual care. Scenario, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were completed. The study setting was Australian health services, and the study population was all Australian women projected to give birth in the years 2022 to 2026 (approximately 330 000 per year). INTERVENTIONS: Structured diet and physical activity intervention provided by trained health professionals, integrated into routine antenatal care. Comparator was usual care, which currently in Australia does not include routine structured lifestyle interventions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Return on investment (ROI) ratio for lifestyle intervention (cost of intervention divided by cost savings attributable to reduced maternal and infant adverse events) from the perspective of Australian health care funders. Adverse events were obtained from a published meta-analysis and population data. Costs were estimated from aggregate trial data and clinical pathways and valued at the year incurred. RESULTS: Intervention offered an ROI ratio of 4.75 over the 5-year program; hence every Australian dollar spent on implementation produced an estimated return of A$4.75. The projected total 5-year intervention cost was A$205 million ($151 million), with cost offsets (from reduced incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes) of A$102

Published
2022

40. The effect of epilepsy surgery on productivity: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Author

Siriratnam, P, Foster, E, Shakhatreh, L, Neal, A, Carney, PW, Jackson, GD, O'Brien, TJ, Kwan, P, Chen, Z, Ademi, Z, Siriratnam, P, Foster, E, Shakhatreh, L, Neal, A, Carney, PW, Jackson, GD, O'Brien, TJ, Kwan, P, Chen, Z, and Ademi, Z

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: An important but understudied benefit of resective epilepsy surgery is improvement in productivity; that is, people's ability to contribute to society through participation in the workforce and in unpaid roles such as carer duties. Here, we aimed to evaluate productivity in adults with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) pre- and post-resective epilepsy surgery, and to explore the factors that positively influence productivity outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using four electronic databases: Medline (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), EBM Reviews - Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Cochrane Library. All studies over the past 30 years reporting on pre- and post-resective epilepsy surgical outcomes in adults with DRE were eligible for inclusion. Meta-analysis was performed to assess the post-surgery change in employment outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1005 titles and abstracts were reviewed. Seventeen studies, comprising 2056 unique patients, were suitable for the final quantitative synthesis and meta-analysis. Resective epilepsy surgery resulted in a 22% improvement in overall productivity (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.40). The factors associated with increased post-surgery employment risk ratios were lower pre-surgical employment in the workforce (relative risk ratio [RRR] =0.34; 95% CI: 0.15-0.74), shorter follow-up duration (RRR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90-0.99), and lower mean age at time of surgery (RRR= 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94-0.99). The risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions and was low for most variables except "measurement of exposure." SIGNIFICANCE: There is clear evidence that resective surgery in eligible surgical DRE patients results in improved productivity. Future work may include implementing a standardized method for collecting and reporting productivity in epilepsy cohorts and focusing on ways to reprioritize health care res

Published
2022

41. Predictors of Stigma and Health-Related Quality of Life Among People Living with HIV in Northern Thailand

Author

Rayanakorn, A, Ong-artborirak, P, Ademi, Z, Chariyalertsak, S, Rayanakorn, A, Ong-artborirak, P, Ademi, Z, and Chariyalertsak, S

Abstract

HIV-related stigma and discrimination have been a significant barrier to accessing health care, hence contributing to poor health outcomes. This study aimed to investigate factors associated with HIV-related stigma and discrimination and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among people living with HIV in rural Thailand setting. A cross-sectional convenience sample of 161 HIV-positive Thai patients was recruited from a single rural district hospital using a self-administered questionnaire entailing sociodemographic information, the 12-item stigma scale, the Medical Outcomes Study HIV Health Survey (MOS-HIV), and the EuroQoL 5-Dimension 5-Level (EQ-5D-5L). Linear regression and the multi-variable analyses were used to investigate factors associated with stigma and HRQoL, whereas the correlations between stigma and quality of life variables were tested by Pearson correlations. Being married and duration of antiretroviral therapy were negatively correlated with HIV stigma, while increased age was inversely associated with HRQoL. Being employed and having sufficient money for living contributed positively to predict HRQoL. HIV stigma was negatively associated with mental health summary (MHS) and visual analog scale (VAS) score, whereas duration diagnosed with HIV and the use of two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors in combination with protease inhibitor regimen were negative factors associated with VAS and health utility, respectively. The findings confirm complex and inseparable associations of factors relating to HIV-related stigma and HRQoL. The development of effective interventions tailored at individual level is warranted to address this gap.

Published
2022

43. Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Author

Roth, G, Mensah, G, Johnson, C, Addolorato, G, Ammirati, E, Baddour, L, Barengo, N, Beaton, A, Benjamin, E, Benziger, C, Bonny, A, Brauer, M, Brodmann, M, Cahill, T, Carapetis, J, Catapano, A, Chugh, S, Cooper, L, Coresh, J, Criqui, M, Decleene, N, Eagle, K, Emmons-Bell, S, Feigin, V, Fernandez-Sola, J, Fowkes, G, Gakidou, E, Grundy, S, He, F, Howard, G, Hu, F, Inker, L, Karthikeyan, G, Kassebaum, N, Koroshetz, W, Lavie, C, Lloyd-Jones, D, Lu, H, Mirijello, A, Temesgen, A, Mokdad, A, Moran, A, Muntner, P, Narula, J, Neal, B, Ntsekhe, M, Moraes de Oliveira, G, Otto, C, Owolabi, M, Pratt, M, Rajagopalan, S, Reitsma, M, Ribeiro, A, Rigotti, N, Rodgers, A, Sable, C, Shakil, S, Sliwa-Hahnle, K, Stark, B, Sundstrom, J, Timpel, P, Tleyjeh, I, Valgimigli, M, Vos, T, Whelton, P, Yacoub, M, Zuhlke, L, Murray, C, Fuster, V, Fowkes, F, Misganaw, A, Oliveira, G, Sliwa, K, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abdi, A, Abedi, A, Aboyans, V, Abrha, W, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abushouk, A, Acharya, D, Adair, T, Adebayo, O, Ademi, Z, Advani, S, Afshari, K, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agasthi, P, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, M, Aji, B, Akalu, Y, Akande-Sholabi, W, Aklilu, A, Akunna, C, Alahdab, F, Al-Eyadhy, A, Alhabib, K, Alif, S, Alipour, V, Aljunid, S, Alla, F, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Almustanyir, S, Al-Raddadi, R, Amegah, A, Amini, S, Aminorroaya, A, Amu, H, Amugsi, D, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Andrei, T, Andrei, C, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Anteneh, Z, Antonazzo, I, Antony, B, Anwer, R, Appiah, L, Arabloo, J, Arnlov, J, Artanti, K, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awan, A, Awoke, M, Ayele, H, Ayza, M, Azari, S, B, D, Baheiraei, N, Baig, A, Bakhtiari, A, Banach, M, Banik, P, Baptista, E, Barboza, M, Barua, L, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bejot, Y, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Berman, A, Bezabih, Y, Bhagavathula, A, Bhaskar, S, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Birhanu, M, Boloor, A, Brant, L, Brenner, H, Briko, N, Butt, Z, Caetano dos Santos, F, Cahill, L, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Camera, L, Campos-Nonato, I, Cantu-Brito, C, Car, J, Carrero, J, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Catala-Lopez, F, Cerin, E, Charan, J, Chattu, V, Chen, S, Chin, K, Choi, J, Chu, D, Chung, S, Cirillo, M, Coffey, S, Conti, S, Costa, V, Cundiff, D, Dadras, O, Dagnew, B, Dai, X, Damasceno, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Davletov, K, De la Cruz-Gongora, V, De la Hoz, F, De Neve, J, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Derbew Molla, M, Derseh, B, Desai, R, Deuschl, G, Dharmaratne, S, Dhimal, M, Dhungana, R, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Dokova, K, Douiri, A, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Eagan, A, Ebtehaj, S, Eftekhari, A, Eftekharzadeh, S, Ekholuenetale, M, El Nahas, N, Elgendy, I, Elhadi, M, El-Jaafary, S, Esteghamati, S, Etisso, A, Eyawo, O, Fadhil, I, Faraon, E, Faris, P, Farwati, M, Farzadfar, F, Fernandes, E, Fernandez Prendes, C, Ferrara, P, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Flood, D, Fukumoto, T, Gad, M, Gaidhane, S, Ganji, M, Garg, J, Gebre, A, Gebregiorgis, B, Gebregzabiher, K, Gebremeskel, G, Getacher, L, Obsa, A, Ghajar, A, Ghashghaee, A, Ghith, N, Giampaoli, S, Gilani, S, Gill, P, Gillum, R, Glushkova, E, Gnedovskaya, E, Golechha, M, Gonfa, K, Goudarzian, A, Goulart, A, Guadamuz, J, Guha, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Hachinski, V, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haile, T, Hamadeh, R, Hamidi, S, Hankey, G, Hargono, A, Hartono, R, Hashemian, M, Hashi, A, Hassan, S, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, S, Hayat, K, Heidari, G, Herteliu, C, Holla, R, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Huang, J, Humayun, A, Iavicoli, I, Ibeneme, C, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Iqbal, U, Irvani, S, Islam, S, Islam, R, Iso, H, Iwagami, M, Jain, V, Javaheri, T, Jayapal, S, Jayaram, S, Jayawardena, R, Jeemon, P, Jha, R, Jonas, J, Jonnagaddala, J, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, J, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kahlon, T, Kalani, R, Kalhor, R, Kamath, A, Kamel, I, Kandel, H, Kandel, A, Karch, A, Kasa, A, Katoto, P, Kayode, G, Khader, Y, Khammarnia, M, Khan, M, Khan, E, Khatab, K, Kibria, G, Kim, Y, Kim, G, Kimokoti, R, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kivimaki, M, Kolte, D, Koolivand, A, Korshunov, V, Koulmane Laxminarayana, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Krishnamoorthy, V, Kuate Defo, B, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, G, Kumar, N, Kurmi, O, Kusuma, D, Kwan, G, La Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Lallukka, T, Lan, Q, Lasrado, S, Lassi, Z, Lauriola, P, Lawrence, W, Laxmaiah, A, Legrand, K, Li, M, Li, B, Li, S, Lim, S, Lim, L, Lin, H, Lin, Z, Lin, R, Liu, X, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lugo, A, M, N, Madotto, F, Mahmoudi, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malik, A, Mamun, A, Manafi, N, Mansournia, M, Mantovani, L, Martini, S, Mathur, M, Mazzaglia, G, Mehata, S, Mehndiratta, M, Meier, T, Menezes, R, Meretoja, A, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Michalek, I, Miller, T, Mirrakhimov, E, Mirzaei, H, Moazen, B, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohammad, Y, Mohammad, D, Mohammed, S, Mohammed, M, Mokhayeri, Y, Molokhia, M, Montasir, A, Moradi, G, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Moreno Velasquez, I, Morze, J, Mubarik, S, Muruet, W, Musa, K, Nagarajan, A, Nalini, M, Nangia, V, Naqvi, A, Narasimha Swamy, S, Nascimento, B, Nayak, V, Nazari, J, Nazarzadeh, M, Negoi, R, Neupane Kandel, S, Nguyen, H, Nixon, M, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nouthe, B, Nowak, C, Odukoya, O, Ogbo, F, Olagunju, A, Orru, H, Ortiz, A, Ostroff, S, Padubidri, J, Palladino, R, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Parekh, U, Park, E, Parvizi, M, Pashazadeh Kan, F, Patel, U, Pathak, M, Paudel, R, Pepito, V, Perianayagam, A, Perico, N, Pham, H, Pilgrim, T, Piradov, M, Pishgar, F, Podder, V, Polibin, R, Pourshams, A, Pribadi, D, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Ur Rahman, M, Rahman, M, Rahmani, A, Rakovac, I, Ram, P, Ramalingam, S, Rana, J, Ranasinghe, P, Rao, S, Rathi, P, Rawal, L, Rawasia, W, Rawassizadeh, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, A, Rezapour, A, Riahi, S, Roberts-Thomson, R, Roever, L, Rohloff, P, Romoli, M, Roshandel, G, Rwegerera, G, Saadatagah, S, Saber-Ayad, M, Sabour, S, Sacco, S, Sadeghi, M, Saeedi Moghaddam, S, Safari, S, Sahebkar, A, Salehi, S, Salimzadeh, H, Samaei, M, Samy, A, Santos, I, Santric-Milicevic, M, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sarveazad, A, Sathish, T, Sawhney, M, Saylan, M, Schmidt, M, Schutte, A, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, S, Sha, F, Shahabi, S, Shahid, I, Shaikh, M, Shamali, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Shawon, M, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Shin, M, Shin, J, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Shuval, K, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, T, Silva, D, Singh, J, Mtech, A, Skryabin, V, Skryabina, A, Soheili, A, Spurlock, E, Stockfelt, L, Stortecky, S, Stranges, S, Suliankatchi Abdulkader, R, Tadbiri, H, Tadesse, E, Tadesse, D, Tajdini, M, Tariqujjaman, M, Teklehaimanot, B, Temsah, M, Tesema, A, Thakur, B, Thankappan, K, Thapar, R, Thrift, A, Timalsina, B, Tonelli, M, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Tripathi, A, Tripathy, J, Truelsen, T, Tsegay, G, Tsegaye, G, Tsilimparis, N, Tusa, B, Tyrovolas, S, Umapathi, K, Unim, B, Unnikrishnan, B, Usman, M, Vaduganathan, M, Valdez, P, Vasankari, T, Velazquez, D, Venketasubramanian, N, Vu, G, Vujcic, I, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y, Wang, F, Wei, J, Weintraub, R, Weldemariam, A, Westerman, R, Winkler, A, Wiysonge, C, Wolfe, C, Wubishet, B, Xu, G, Yadollahpour, A, Yamagishi, K, Yan, L, Yandrapalli, S, Yano, Y, Yatsuya, H, Yeheyis, T, Yeshaw, Y, Yilgwan, C, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yusefzadeh, H, Zachariah, G, Zaman, S, Zaman, M, Zamanian, M, Zand, R, Zandifar, A, Zarghi, A, Zastrozhin, M, Zastrozhina, A, Zhang, Z, Zhang, Y, Zhang, W, Zhong, C, Zou, Z, Zuniga, Y, Roth G. A., Mensah G. A., Johnson C. O., Addolorato G., Ammirati E., Baddour L. M., Barengo N. C., Beaton A. Z., Benjamin E. J., Benziger C. P., Bonny A., Brauer M., Brodmann M., Cahill T. J., Carapetis J., Catapano A. L., Chugh S. S., Cooper L. T., Coresh J., Criqui M., DeCleene N., Eagle K. A., Emmons-Bell S., Feigin V. L., Fernandez-Sola J., Fowkes G., Gakidou E., Grundy S. M., He F. J., Howard G., Hu F., Inker L., Karthikeyan G., Kassebaum N., Koroshetz W., Lavie C., Lloyd-Jones D., Lu H. S., Mirijello A., Temesgen A. M., Mokdad A., Moran A. E., Muntner P., Narula J., Neal B., Ntsekhe M., Moraes de Oliveira G., Otto C., Owolabi M., Pratt M., Rajagopalan S., Reitsma M., Ribeiro A. L. P., Rigotti N., Rodgers A., Sable C., Shakil S., Sliwa-Hahnle K., Stark B., Sundstrom J., Timpel P., Tleyjeh I. M., Valgimigli M., Vos T., Whelton P. K., Yacoub M., Zuhlke L., Murray C., Fuster V., Beaton A., Carapetis J. R., Chugh S., Criqui M. H., DeCleene N. K., Fowkes F. G. R., Kassebaum N. J., Koroshetz W. J., Misganaw A. T., Mokdad A. H., Oliveira G. M. M., Otto C. M., Owolabi M. O., Reitsma M. B., Rigotti N. A., Sable C. A., Shakil S. S., Sliwa K., Stark B. A., Tleyjeh I. I., Zuhlke L. J., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Abdi A., Abedi A., Aboyans V., Abrha W. A., Abu-Gharbieh E., Abushouk A. I., Acharya D., Adair T., Adebayo O. M., Ademi Z., Advani S. M., Afshari K., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Ahmad S., Ahmadi S., Ahmed M. B., Aji B., Akalu Y., Akande-Sholabi W., Aklilu A., Akunna C. J., Alahdab F., Al-Eyadhy A., Alhabib K. F., Alif S. M., Alipour V., Aljunid S. M., Alla F., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almustanyir S., Al-Raddadi R. M., Amegah A. K., Amini S., Aminorroaya A., Amu H., Amugsi D. A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei T., Andrei C. L., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Anteneh Z. A., Antonazzo I. C., Antony B., Anwer R., Appiah L. T., Arabloo J., Arnlov J., Artanti K. D., Ataro Z., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Awan A. T., Awoke M. A., Ayele H. T., Ayza M. A., Azari S., B D. B., Baheiraei N., Baig A. A., Bakhtiari A., Banach M., Banik P. C., Baptista E. A., Barboza M. A., Barua L., Basu S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Bennett D. A., Bensenor I. M., Berman A. E., Bezabih Y. M., Bhagavathula A. S., Bhaskar S., Bhattacharyya K., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Birhanu M. M., Boloor A., Brant L. C., Brenner H., Briko N. I., Butt Z. A., Caetano dos Santos F. L., Cahill L. E., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L. A., Campos-Nonato I. R., Cantu-Brito C., Car J., Carrero J. J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C. A., Catala-Lopez F., Cerin E., Charan J., Chattu V. K., Chen S., Chin K. L., Choi J. -Y. J., Chu D. -T., Chung S. -C., Cirillo M., Coffey S., Conti S., Costa V. M., Cundiff D. K., Dadras O., Dagnew B., Dai X., Damasceno A. A. M., Dandona L., Dandona R., Davletov K., De la Cruz-Gongora V., De la Hoz F. P., De Neve J. -W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Derbew Molla M., Derseh B. T., Desai R., Deuschl G., Dharmaratne S. D., Dhimal M., Dhungana R. R., Dianatinasab M., Diaz D., Djalalinia S., Dokova K., Douiri A., Duncan B. B., Duraes A. R., Eagan A. W., Ebtehaj S., Eftekhari A., Eftekharzadeh S., Ekholuenetale M., El Nahas N., Elgendy I. Y., Elhadi M., El-Jaafary S. I., Esteghamati S., Etisso A. E., Eyawo O., Fadhil I., Faraon E. J. A., Faris P. S., Farwati M., Farzadfar F., Fernandes E., Fernandez Prendes C., Ferrara P., Filip I., Fischer F., Flood D., Fukumoto T., Gad M. M., Gaidhane S., Ganji M., Garg J., Gebre A. K., Gebregiorgis B. G., Gebregzabiher K. Z., Gebremeskel G. G., Getacher L., Obsa A. G., Ghajar A., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Giampaoli S., Gilani S. A., Gill P. S., Gillum R. F., Glushkova E. V., Gnedovskaya E. V., Golechha M., Gonfa K. B., Goudarzian A. H., Goulart A. C., Guadamuz J. S., Guha A., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haile T. G., Hamadeh R. R., Hamidi S., Hankey G. J., Hargono A., Hartono R. K., Hashemian M., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hassen H. Y., Havmoeller R. J., Hay S. I., Hayat K., Heidari G., Herteliu C., Holla R., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Huang J., Humayun A., Iavicoli I., Ibeneme C. U., Ibitoye S. E., Ilesanmi O. S., Ilic I. M., Ilic M. D., Iqbal U., Irvani S. S. N., Islam S. M. S., Islam R. M., Iso H., Iwagami M., Jain V., Javaheri T., Jayapal S. K., Jayaram S., Jayawardena R., Jeemon P., Jha R. P., Jonas J. B., Jonnagaddala J., Joukar F., Jozwiak J. J., Jurisson M., Kabir A., Kahlon T., Kalani R., Kalhor R., Kamath A., Kamel I., Kandel H., Kandel A., Karch A., Kasa A. S., Katoto P. D. M. C., Kayode G. A., Khader Y. S., Khammarnia M., Khan M. S., Khan M. N., Khan M., Khan E. A., Khatab K., Kibria G. M. A., Kim Y. J., Kim G. R., Kimokoti R. W., Kisa S., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kolte D., Koolivand A., Korshunov V. A., Koulmane Laxminarayana S. L., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krishnamoorthy V., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kulkarni V., Kumar G. A., Kumar N., Kurmi O. P., Kusuma D., Kwan G. F., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lallukka T., Lan Q., Lasrado S., Lassi Z. S., Lauriola P., Lawrence W. R., Laxmaiah A., LeGrand K. E., Li M. -C., Li B., Li S., Lim S. S., Lim L. -L., Lin H., Lin Z., Lin R. -T., Liu X., Lopez A. D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P. A., Lugo A., M N. K., Madotto F., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malik A. A., Mamun A. A., Manafi N., Mansournia M. A., Mantovani L. G., Martini S., Mathur M. R., Mazzaglia G., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M. M., Meier T., Menezes R. G., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Michalek I. M., Miller T. R., Mirrakhimov E. M., Mirzaei H., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohammad Y., Mohammad D. K., Mohammed S., Mohammed M. A., Mokhayeri Y., Molokhia M., Montasir A. A., Moradi G., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Morze J., Mubarik S., Muruet W., Musa K. I., Nagarajan A. J., Nalini M., Nangia V., Naqvi A. A., Narasimha Swamy S., Nascimento B. R., Nayak V. C., Nazari J., Nazarzadeh M., Negoi R. 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W., Tsilimparis N., Tusa B. S., Tyrovolas S., Umapathi K. K., Unim B., Unnikrishnan B., Usman M. S., Vaduganathan M., Valdez P. R., Vasankari T. J., Velazquez D. Z., Venketasubramanian N., Vu G. T., Vujcic I. S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang F., Wei J., Weintraub R. G., Weldemariam A. H., Westerman R., Winkler A. S., Wiysonge C. S., Wolfe C. D. A., Wubishet B. L., Xu G., Yadollahpour A., Yamagishi K., Yan L. L., Yandrapalli S., Yano Y., Yatsuya H., Yeheyis T. Y., Yeshaw Y., Yilgwan C. S., Yonemoto N., Yu C., Yusefzadeh H., Zachariah G., Zaman S. B., Zaman M. S., Zamanian M., Zand R., Zandifar A., Zarghi A., Zastrozhin M. S., Zastrozhina A., Zhang Z. -J., Zhang Y., Zhang W., Zhong C., Zou Z., Zuniga Y. M. H., Murray C. J. 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A., Mensah G. A., Johnson C. O., Addolorato G., Ammirati E., Baddour L. M., Barengo N. C., Beaton A. Z., Benjamin E. J., Benziger C. P., Bonny A., Brauer M., Brodmann M., Cahill T. J., Carapetis J., Catapano A. L., Chugh S. S., Cooper L. T., Coresh J., Criqui M., DeCleene N., Eagle K. A., Emmons-Bell S., Feigin V. L., Fernandez-Sola J., Fowkes G., Gakidou E., Grundy S. M., He F. J., Howard G., Hu F., Inker L., Karthikeyan G., Kassebaum N., Koroshetz W., Lavie C., Lloyd-Jones D., Lu H. S., Mirijello A., Temesgen A. M., Mokdad A., Moran A. E., Muntner P., Narula J., Neal B., Ntsekhe M., Moraes de Oliveira G., Otto C., Owolabi M., Pratt M., Rajagopalan S., Reitsma M., Ribeiro A. L. P., Rigotti N., Rodgers A., Sable C., Shakil S., Sliwa-Hahnle K., Stark B., Sundstrom J., Timpel P., Tleyjeh I. M., Valgimigli M., Vos T., Whelton P. K., Yacoub M., Zuhlke L., Murray C., Fuster V., Beaton A., Carapetis J. R., Chugh S., Criqui M. H., DeCleene N. K., Fowkes F. G. R., Kassebaum N. J., Koroshetz W. J., Misganaw A. T., Mokdad A. H., Oliveira G. M. M., Otto C. M., Owolabi M. O., Reitsma M. B., Rigotti N. A., Sable C. A., Shakil S. S., Sliwa K., Stark B. A., Tleyjeh I. I., Zuhlke L. J., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Abdi A., Abedi A., Aboyans V., Abrha W. A., Abu-Gharbieh E., Abushouk A. I., Acharya D., Adair T., Adebayo O. M., Ademi Z., Advani S. M., Afshari K., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Ahmad S., Ahmadi S., Ahmed M. B., Aji B., Akalu Y., Akande-Sholabi W., Aklilu A., Akunna C. J., Alahdab F., Al-Eyadhy A., Alhabib K. F., Alif S. M., Alipour V., Aljunid S. M., Alla F., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almustanyir S., Al-Raddadi R. M., Amegah A. K., Amini S., Aminorroaya A., Amu H., Amugsi D. A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei T., Andrei C. L., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Anteneh Z. A., Antonazzo I. C., Antony B., Anwer R., Appiah L. T., Arabloo J., Arnlov J., Artanti K. D., Ataro Z., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Awan A. T., Awoke M. A., Ayele H. T., Ayza M. A., Azari S., B D. B., Baheiraei N., Baig A. A., Bakhtiari A., Banach M., Banik P. C., Baptista E. A., Barboza M. A., Barua L., Basu S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Bennett D. A., Bensenor I. M., Berman A. E., Bezabih Y. M., Bhagavathula A. S., Bhaskar S., Bhattacharyya K., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Birhanu M. M., Boloor A., Brant L. C., Brenner H., Briko N. I., Butt Z. A., Caetano dos Santos F. L., Cahill L. E., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L. A., Campos-Nonato I. R., Cantu-Brito C., Car J., Carrero J. J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C. A., Catala-Lopez F., Cerin E., Charan J., Chattu V. K., Chen S., Chin K. L., Choi J. -Y. J., Chu D. -T., Chung S. -C., Cirillo M., Coffey S., Conti S., Costa V. M., Cundiff D. K., Dadras O., Dagnew B., Dai X., Damasceno A. A. M., Dandona L., Dandona R., Davletov K., De la Cruz-Gongora V., De la Hoz F. P., De Neve J. -W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Derbew Molla M., Derseh B. T., Desai R., Deuschl G., Dharmaratne S. D., Dhimal M., Dhungana R. R., Dianatinasab M., Diaz D., Djalalinia S., Dokova K., Douiri A., Duncan B. B., Duraes A. R., Eagan A. W., Ebtehaj S., Eftekhari A., Eftekharzadeh S., Ekholuenetale M., El Nahas N., Elgendy I. Y., Elhadi M., El-Jaafary S. I., Esteghamati S., Etisso A. E., Eyawo O., Fadhil I., Faraon E. J. A., Faris P. S., Farwati M., Farzadfar F., Fernandes E., Fernandez Prendes C., Ferrara P., Filip I., Fischer F., Flood D., Fukumoto T., Gad M. M., Gaidhane S., Ganji M., Garg J., Gebre A. K., Gebregiorgis B. G., Gebregzabiher K. Z., Gebremeskel G. G., Getacher L., Obsa A. G., Ghajar A., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Giampaoli S., Gilani S. A., Gill P. S., Gillum R. F., Glushkova E. V., Gnedovskaya E. V., Golechha M., Gonfa K. B., Goudarzian A. H., Goulart A. C., Guadamuz J. S., Guha A., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haile T. G., Hamadeh R. R., Hamidi S., Hankey G. J., Hargono A., Hartono R. K., Hashemian M., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hassen H. Y., Havmoeller R. J., Hay S. 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Abstract

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside

Published
2020

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