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One of the major threats in rice agriculture is the Tungro virus, which is transmitted semi-persistently to rice plants via green rice leafhoppers called Nephotettix Virescens. Tungro is polycyclic and complex disease of rice associated by dual infection with Rice Tungro Bacilliform Virus (RTBV) and Rice Tungro Spherical Virus (RTSV). Interaction of the two viruses results in the degeneration of the host. In this paper, we used a plant-vector system of ordinary differential equations to model the spread of the disease in a model rice field. Parameter values were obtained from studies on the entomology of Nephotettix Virescens and infection rates of RTSV and RTBV. The system was analyzed for equilibrium solutions, and solved numerically for susceptible rice varieties (Taichung Native 1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Least Squares (LS), Least Median Squares (LMdS), Reweighted Least Squares (RLS) and Trimmed Least Squares (TLS) estimators are used to obtain parameter estimates of AR models using DE algorithm. The empirical study indicated that, the RLS estimator seems to be very reasonable because of having smaller root mean square error (RMSE), particularly for the Gaussian AR(1) process with unknown drift and additive outliers. Moreover, while LS performs well on shorter processes with less percentage and smaller magnitude of additive outliers (AOs); RLS and TLS compare favorably with respect to LS for longer AR processes. Thus, this study recommends the Reweighted Least Squares estimator as an alternative to the LS estimator in the case of autoregressive processes with additive outliers. The experiment also demonstrates that Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm obtains optimal solutions for fitting first-order autoregressive processes with outliers using the estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an age-structured malaria transmission model and perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission. We subdivide the human population into two: preschool humans (below 5 years) and the rest of the human population (above 5 years). We then consider two sets of baseline parameters, one for areas of high transmission and the other for areas of low transmission. We compute the sensitivity indices of the reproductive number and the endemic equilibrium point with respect to the two sets of baseline parameters. Our simulations reveal that in areas of either high or low transmission, the reproductive number is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito on the rest of the human population. For areas of low transmission, we find that the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito. For the rest of the human population it is most sensitive to the rate of acquiring temporary immunity. In areas of high transmission, the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans and the rest of the human population are both most sensitive to the birth rate of humans. This suggests that strategies that target the mosquito biting rate on pre-school humans and those that shortens the time in acquiring immunity can be successful in preventing the spread of malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]