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In this paper, the wind direction (WD) behaviour with respect to the variability of other meteorological parameters (i.e., rainfall (R), temperature (T), relative humidity (Rh), solar radiation (SR) and wind speed (U)) was studied in a multi-scale way. To carry out this study, the Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) framework was applied to a Guadeloupe archipelago dataset from 2016 to 2021. Thus, the time-dependent intrinsic correlation (TDIC) analysis based on multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD) was performed. For time scales between ∼3 days and ∼7 months, the localized positive and negative correlations between WD and the meteorological parameters have been identified. The alternation between these correlations was more significant for T and Rh. With regard to SR and U, there was a dominance of a negative correlation with WD. We assumed that the micro-climate previously identified in the literature for the study area plays a key role in these behaviours. A strong positive correlation between WD and R was found from ∼7 months to ∼2.5 years. At the annual scale, the relationships between WD and all meteorological parameters were long range and no significant transition in correlation was observed showing the impact of the Earth’s annual cycle on climatic variables. All these results clearly show the influence of R-T-Rh-SR-U on WD over different time scales.

Studying atmospheric temperature characteristics is crucial under climate change, as it helps us to understand the changing patterns in temperature that have significant implications for the environment, ecosystems, and human well-being. This study presents the comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of scaling behavior of daily temperature series across the whole Indian mainland, using a Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). The analysis considered 1° × 1° datasets of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) (TDTR = Tmax − Tmin) from 1951 to 2016 to compare their scaling behavior for the first time. Our results indicate that the Tmin series exhibits the highest persistence (with the Hurst exponent ranging from 0.849 to unity, and a mean of 0.971), and all four-temperature series display long-term persistence and multifractal characteristics. The variability of the multifractal characteristics is less significant in North–Central India, while it is highest along the western coast of India. Moreover, the assessment of multifractal characteristics of different temperature series during the pre- and post-1976–1977 period of the Pacific climate shift reveals a notable decrease in multifractal strength and persistence in the post-1976–1977 series across all regions. Moreover, for the detection of climate change and its dominant driver, we propose a new rolling window multifractal (RWM) framework by evaluating the temporal evolution of the spectral exponents and the Hurst exponent. This study successfully captured the regime shifts during the periods of 1976–1977 and 1997–1998. Interestingly, the earlier climatic shift primarily mitigated the persistence of the Tmax series, whereas the latter shift significantly influenced the persistence of the Tmean series in the majority of temperature-homogeneous regions in India.

Abstract Lakes help increase the sustainability of the natural environment and decrease food chain risk, agriculture, ecosystem services, and leisure recreational activities locally and globally. Reliable simulation of monthly lake water levels is still an ongoing demand for multiple environmental and hydro-informatics engineering applications. The current research aims to utilize newly developed hybrid data-intelligence models based on the ensemble adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) coupled with metaheuristics algorithms for lake water-level simulation by considering the effect of seasonality on Titicaca Lake water-level fluctuations. The classical ANFIS model was trained using three metaheuristics nature-inspired optimization algorithms, including the genetic algorithm (ANFIS-GA), particle swarm optimizer (ANFIS-PSO), and whale optimization algorithm (ANFIS-WOA). For determining the best set of the input variables, an evolutionary approach based on several lag months has been utilized prior to the lake water-level simulation process using the hybrid models. The proposed hybrid models were investigated for accurately simulating the monthly water levels at Titicaca Lake. The ANFIS-WOA model exhibited the best prediction performance for lake water-level pattern measurement in this study. For the best scenario (the inputs were $${X}_{t-1},\; {X}_{t-2}, \;{X}_{t-3}, \;{X}_{t-4}, \; {X}_{t-12}$$ X t - 1 , X t - 2 , X t - 3 , X t - 4 , X t - 12 ) the ANFIS-WOA model attained root mean square error (RMSE $$\approx$$ ≈ 0.08 m), mean absolute error (MAE $$\approx$$ ≈ 0.06 m), and coefficient of determination (R 2 $$\approx$$ ≈ 0.96). Also, the results showed that long-term seasonal memory for this lake is suitable input for lake water-level models so that the long-term dynamic memory of 1-year time series for lake water-level data is the best input for estimating the water level of Titicaca Lake.

This study analyzed the multifractal characteristics of daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) time series of the Tabriz and Urmia stations of northwestern Iran and its cross-correlation with five other meteorological variables. The results of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) of ETo, temperature, pressure, relative humidity solar radiation, and wind velocity showed that all the time series of both stations exhibited multifractality and long memory persistence with higher persistence and complexity in the datasets of Urmia station. Then, a multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD)-(MFDFA) coupled framework was proposed to identify the dominant modes suitable for the forecasting of the different variables. The examination of reconstructed time series consistently displayed an increase in persistence and multifractality. The cross-correlation between different candidate variables and ETo was examined using a recently proposed multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) method. The results showed that in each pair-wise cross-correlation analysis, the joint persistence is approximately half of the persistence of an individual time series, reinforcing the universality in the fractal cross-correlation analysis. The cross-correlation properties displayed diverse patterns in different pair-wise combinations of cross-correlation analysis despite the similarity of patterns among the data of the two stations.

The Caribbean basin is a geographical area with a high prevalence of asthma due to mineral dust. As such, it is crucial to analyze the dynamic behavior of particulate pollutants in this region. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than or equal to 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5 and PM10) using Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT)-based approaches, including the time-dependent intrinsic correlation (TDIC) and time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation (TDICC) frames. The study utilized datasets from Puerto Rico from between 2007 and 2010 to demonstrate the relationships between two primary particulate matter concentration datasets of air pollution across multiple time scales. The method first decomposes both time series using improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) to obtain the periodic scales. The Hilbert spectral analysis identified two dominant peaks at a weekly scale for both PM types. High amplitude contributions were sustained for long and continuous time periods at seasonal to intra-seasonal scales, with similar trends in spectral amplitude observed for both types of PM except for monthly and intra-seasonal scales of six months. The TDIC method was used to analyze the resulting modes with similar periodic scales, revealing the strongest and most stable correlation pattern at quarterly and annual cycles. Subsequently, lagged correlations at each time scale were analyzed using the TDICC method. For high-frequency PM10 intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) less than a seasonal scale, the value of the IMF at a given time scale was found to be dependent on multiple antecedent values of PM2.5. However, from the quarterly scale onward, the correlation pattern of the PM2.5-PM10 relationship was stable, and IMFs of PM10 at these scales could be modeled by the lag 1 IMF of PM2.5. These results demonstrate that PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are dynamically linked during the passage of African dust storms.

The multifractal properties of six acknowledged agro-meteorological parameters, such as reference evapotranspiration (ET0), wind speed (U), incoming solar radiation (SR), air temperature (T), air pressure (P), and relative air humidity (RH) of five stations in California, USA were examined. The investigation of multifractality of datasets from stations with differing terrain conditions using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) showed the existence of a long-term persistence and multifractality irrespective of the location. The scaling exponents of SR and T time series are found to be higher for stations with higher altitudes. Subsequently, this study proposed using the novel multifractal cross correlation (MFCCA) method to examine the multiscale-multifractal correlations properties between ET0 and other investigated variables. The MFCCA could successfully capture the scale dependent association of different variables and the dynamics in the nature of their associations from weekly to inter-annual time scales. The multifractal exponents of P and U are consistently lower than the exponents of ET0, irrespective of station location. This study found that joint scaling exponent was nearly the average of scaling exponents of individual series in different pairs of variables. Additionally, the α-values of joint multifractal spectrum were lower than the α values of both of the individual spectra, validating two universal properties in the MFCCA studies for agro-meteorological time series. The temporal evolution of cross-correlation determined by the MFCCA successfully captured the dynamics in the nature of associations in the P-ET0 link.

This paper presented trend analysis of droughts in Kerala, Telangana, and Orissa meteorological subdivisions in India and proposed a framework for drought prediction by employing the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)‐based prediction models. The study used 3‐month standardized precipitation index (SPI3) for drought analysis. The trend analysis of SPI3 series for the period 1871–2012 using Mann–Kendall method showed statistically significant increasing trend in Kerala and Telangana subdivisions and a decreasing trend in Orissa subdivision. In addition, the non‐linear trend component extracted from EMD showed statistically significant changes in all the three subdivisions. Then, the study proposed a hybrid approach for prediction of short‐term droughts by coupling multivariate extension of EMD (MEMD) with stepwise linear regression (SLR) and genetic programming (GP) methods. First, the multivariate dataset comprising the SPI3 series of current and lagged time steps are decomposed using the MEMD. Then, SLR/GP models are developed to predict each subseries of SPI3 of desired time step considering the subseries of predictor variables at the corresponding timescales as inputs. The resulting models at different timescales are recombined to obtain the SPI3 values of the desired time step. The method is applied for prediction of short‐term droughts in the three subdivisions. The results obtained by the hybrid models are compared with that obtained by conventional prediction models using M5 Model Trees and GP. The rigorous performance evaluation based on multiple statistical criteria clearly exhibited the superiority of the hybrid approaches (i.e., prediction models with MEMD‐based decomposition over models without decomposition) for prediction of SPI3 in three subdivisions. Further, the study found that MEMD‐GP model performs marginally better than the MEMD‐SLR model due to its efficacy in modelling high frequency modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]