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Living with wildfires in an era of climate change requires adaptation and weaving together many forms of knowledge. Empirical evidence of knowledge co-production in wildfire management is lacking in Mediterranean European areas. We explored how local ecological knowledge can be leveraged to reduce wildfire risk through an adaptation pathways process in the Montseny massif and wider Tordera River watershed of Catalonia, Spain: an area stewarded through forestry and agriculture, tourism, nature conservation, and fire management. We combined different methods (e.g., a timeline and Three Horizons framework) throughout three workshops with agents of change to co-create adaptation pathways to reduce wildfire risk, integrating a historical perspective of the landscape while envisioning desirable futures. Our results showed that local ecological knowledge and other soft adaptation strategies contribute to innovative sustainable development initiatives that can also mitigate wildfire risk. The adaptation pathways approach holds much potential to inform local policies and support wildfire-based community initiatives in diverse contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In dryland pastoral environments, political and geographical marginalization has historically led to development strategies that poorly account for individual and communities’ spatial and socio-economic realities. These development legacies, including long-standing epistemic biases in defining what should be adapted, are often insufficiently considered within adaptation research and practice. This article sets out to analyze the historical emergence and enactment of formal education as a contested adaptation pathway in southern Kenya. For this, I combine the strengths of the historically situated analyses of the pathways scholarship and feminist political ecology’s attention to the performance of intersectional relations of power in everyday livelihood practices. I bring together both archival data and qualitative primary data from focus group discussions (n = 16) and individual interviews (n = 122) conducted in three pastoral communities. The results exemplify the ways that non-climatic factors, such as increased formal school enrolment, (re)shape everyday livelihood practices and social aspirations, molding the current adaptation space. Notably, enacting formal education as an adaptation pathway requires one to navigate increasing cash pressures, mobility, and labor constraints. Wealth disparities, gendered norms, and geographies intersect to shape patterns of vulnerability, with poorer pastoralists residing further away from school centers facing difficult trade-offs on their time and resources. Understanding pathways enactments contributes to problematizing current logics of development and adaptation needs, while yielding important information on socio-spatial differentiation processes in pastoral systems. It also opens the space for further research to use these critical insights to identify alternative adaptation pathways that support more just transformations towards sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate related changes are already affecting every area of our world and will increasingly do so as global warming increases, resulting in compounding and cascading risks across multiple locations and sectors. Deliberative processes and anticipatory actions are required to adapt to the associated complex and uncertain systemic risks, with dynamic and long‐term planning needed even where there is limited knowledge of the effectiveness of adaptation. In this focus article, we examine the adaptation pathways developed for the Europe Chapter of the IPCC AR6. We argue that illustrative pathways built on quantitative and qualitative assessment of adaptation effectiveness can inform adaptation planning to manage the increasing severity of risks. We find that as the global warming level increases adaptation pathways can diverge, leading to radically different futures, for example, adaptation responses to sea level rise. We illustrate how adaptation measures for different risks interact resulting in trade‐offs, for example, increasing water scarcity. Although pathways offer a useful framework to address multiple adaptation challenges, other supporting conditions are needed for the successful implementation of adaptation, such as establishing legitimacy and buy‐in through collaboration of various actors and effective governance. Ultimately, adaptation will be increasingly more complex and constrained in a warmer world, increasing risks of losses and damages to people and nature. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for AdaptationThe Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision MakingAssessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate ChangeVulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is complex due to interacting climate risks from interacting hazards and sectors. We develop a synthetic multi‐risk test case to explore the effects of these interactions on decision‐making under deep uncertainty. The test case accounts for changes in hazard impacts and occurrence frequency due to interactions between floods and droughts. Interactions between the shipping, housing and agricultural sectors are considered as well. We use this test case to explore the utility of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi‐Risk (DAPP‐MR) framework. DAPP‐MR has been introduced to assess DRM policies' effectiveness under deep uncertainties and to develop integrated adaptive strategies considering interactions across hazards, sectors and time. With the test case, we show that the stage‐wise approach of DAPP‐MR, which gradually increases the complexity of the analysis, can facilitate the evaluation process. Earlier stages of the analysis can be used to establish the direct cause‐effect relations, later stages allow us to identify whether additional interacting factors have a significant effect on the direct cause‐effect relations. As a result, decision‐makers can gain insights into dependencies and their relevance for developing short‐to long‐term strategies under deep uncertainty. We show that multi‐risk interactions can lead to non‐linear effects that influence the outcome of the policy analysis, for example, the indirect influence of a decision in one sector on another. Future work could investigate further improving the operationalization of this staged approach as well as extending the set of uncertainties, dynamics and decision‐rules accounted for in the multi‐risk test case. Plain Language Summary: This paper addresses the complex challenge that many regions face when dealing with multiple interconnected disasters, like floods, droughts and earthquakes. Traditional Disaster Risk Management methods often fall short, particularly in long‐term planning that considers factors such as climate change. We apply a step‐by‐step approach known as "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi‐Risk (DAPP‐MR)" to assist decision‐makers in better understanding and planning for these intertwined risks over time. This paper employs a hypothetical test case where different sectors (e.g., agricultural sector) seek effective ways to prepare for and respond to flood and drought risks. The DAPP‐MR method facilitates this by breaking down the process into smaller, more manageable steps. This approach allows for an easier understanding of the direct effects of disasters and gradually incorporates more complex interactions between different risks. Our findings suggest that this step‐by‐step method can aid decision‐makers in grasping the connections between various factors and their significance in formulating both short‐ and long‐term strategies. The study also reveals that interactions between different risks can produce unexpected, nonlinear effects, adding complexity to the interpretation of policy outcomes. Key Points: A multi‐risk modeling case with interacting hazards and sectors is created to explore effects for decision‐making under deep uncertaintyDynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi‐Risk has proven effective for pathway analysis to grasp interactions and their relevance through a structured, stage‐by‐stage approachMulti‐risk interactions can alter the decision‐making outcome because of changes in performance or timings of potential pathways [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Nature provides numerous functions and services that can contribute to societal climate change adaptation. These 'adaptation services' can be sustained, latent, or novel, depend on persistence or transformation of ecosystems, and require varying co-production by people. Adaptation services also include climate mitigation. We present an approach to explore an extensive set of land use and climate scenarios that outline possible futures for a landscape, and quantify the contributions of adaptation services. We quantified adaptation success across six criteria relevant to the region, characterised the contributions of different types of adaptation services, and mapped spatial variation in contributions across the landscape. We built an integrated model of the Mackenzie District (an upland landscape of Aotearoa New Zealand), and analysed 1200 hypothetical scenarios for the period 2060–2070. We found many adaptation options, with 46% of scenarios meeting the criteria for successful adaptation. Four sustained, two latent and five novel services co-produced through financial input made diverse contributions to economic profit, profit resilience, climate change mitigation, climate risk adaptation, landscape cultural heritage and biodiversity. Successful adaptation scenarios were multifunctional, relying on alternative combinations of services allowed by spatial heterogeneity. By accounting for the numerous relationships between people and natural components within complex landscape systems, our advanced simulation approach can inform participatory pathway development by quantifying the potential for nature to contribute to future climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is complex due to interacting climate risks from interacting hazards and sectors. We develop a synthetic multi‐risk test case to explore the effects of these interactions on decision‐making under deep uncertainty. The test case accounts for changes in hazard impacts and occurrence frequency due to interactions between floods and droughts. Interactions between the shipping, housing and agricultural sectors are considered as well. We use this test case to explore the utility of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi‐Risk (DAPP‐MR) framework. DAPP‐MR has been introduced to assess DRM policies' effectiveness under deep uncertainties and to develop integrated adaptive strategies considering interactions across hazards, sectors and time. With the test case, we show that the stage‐wise approach of DAPP‐MR, which gradually increases the complexity of the analysis, can facilitate the evaluation process. Earlier stages of the analysis can be used to establish the direct cause‐effect relations, later stages allow us to identify whether additional interacting factors have a significant effect on the direct cause‐effect relations. As a result, decision‐makers can gain insights into dependencies and their relevance for developing short‐to long‐term strategies under deep uncertainty. We show that multi‐risk interactions can lead to non‐linear effects that influence the outcome of the policy analysis, for example, the indirect influence of a decision in one sector on another. Future work could investigate further improving the operationalization of this staged approach as well as extending the set of uncertainties, dynamics and decision‐rules accounted for in the multi‐risk test case.

ABSTRACTNature provides numerous functions and services that can contribute to societal climate change adaptation. These ‘adaptation services’ can be sustained, latent, or novel, depend on persistence or transformation of ecosystems, and require varying co-production by people. Adaptation services also include climate mitigation. We present an approach to explore an extensive set of land use and climate scenarios that outline possible futures for a landscape, and quantify the contributions of adaptation services. We quantified adaptation success across six criteria relevant to the region, characterised the contributions of different types of adaptation services, and mapped spatial variation in contributions across the landscape. We built an integrated model of the Mackenzie District (an upland landscape of Aotearoa New Zealand), and analysed 1200 hypothetical scenarios for the period 2060–2070. We found many adaptation options, with 46% of scenarios meeting the criteria for successful adaptation. Four sustained, two latent and five novel services co-produced through financial input made diverse contributions to economic profit, profit resilience, climate change mitigation, climate risk adaptation, landscape cultural heritage and biodiversity. Successful adaptation scenarios were multifunctional, relying on alternative combinations of services allowed by spatial heterogeneity. By accounting for the numerous relationships between people and natural components within complex landscape systems, our advanced simulation approach can inform participatory pathway development by quantifying the potential for nature to contribute to future climate change adaptation.

ABSTRACTIncreasing temperatures and sea levels, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather pose severe threats for vulnerable communities, ecosystems, and livelihoods in cities of developing countries. Realizing these threats has heightened scholarly inquiry on future risk trends of climate change and adaptation strategies in the countries of Global South and North. However, most studies are based on data of North America, Europe, and Asia. There is minimal documentation of adaptation strategies to mitigate the risk of extreme weather in cities of Sub-Saharan Africa. Hence, this study addresses this need by examining the factors influencing individual and household adaptation strategies to climate risk in Port Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria. Data was collected from 384 randomly selected household heads in different residential densities of the city. Household socioeconomic and demographic attributes, awareness of climate change and factors influencing their adaptation strategies to climate risk were assessed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The study showed that adaptation strategies adopted were reactive rather than anticipatory and varied in magnitude according to the different residential densities. Recommendations emanating from the study include integrating and implementing climate change adaptation policies and embarking on a rigorous awareness campaign to ease households’ vulnerability and augment their climate change absorptive, adaptive, and transformative abilities in the city.

A resurgence of dam planning and construction is under way in river basins where untapped hydropower potential could meet growing energy demands. Despite calls for more comprehensive evaluation of dam projects, most dams continue to be planned with traditional methods that neglect interdependencies between planning and management and cumulative impacts of multiple new dams. Using the transboundary Zambezi Watercourse as a case study where competing demands for water, energy, and food are increasing, we contribute to a novel dam planning approach that integrates sequencing of planned reservoirs with adaptive operations. While additional hydropower capacity reduces structural energy deficits, operating polices emerge as the main driver of human‐environmental tradeoffs, so much so that single‐objective operating policy selection may lead to erroneous perceptions of tradeoffs across infrastructure options. Furthermore, compared to an operation and sequencing strategy that singularly maximizes hydropower, seeking compromise through operations while constructing dams early improves environmental and irrigation objectives by 50% and 80% with an 8% loss in hydropower. Alternatively, seeking compromise only through delayed dam construction yields modest environmental and irrigation improvements of 6% and 9%, respectively, with a 22% loss in hydropower. The robustness of this result is tested under an ensemble of stochastic streamflow where environmental flow and irrigation deficits are found more sensitive to operations than shifts in water availability. The predominance of operating policies is relevant for improving multi‐objective dam planning in other river basins already fragmented by dams built in the twentieth century. Key Points: A two‐part multi‐objective framework is presented that jointly optimizes the sequencing and operations of multipurpose reservoirsOne or two existing reservoirs in a river basin may dominate human‐environmental tradeoffs with implications for planning new damsReservoir operating policies eclipse reservoir network configurations and sequencing in balancing conflicting objectives [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation pathways are a decision-focused approach to account for future uncertainties and complexities in planning and implementation of adaptation actions. The pathways approach incorporates flexibility into decision making to accommodate for changing conditions over time, and to reduce undesirable path dependencies and maladaptive consequences. While the pathways approach for adaptation planning has received great interest from both climate scientists and practitioners, there has been little specific guidance on how to implement them and how to sustain the resulting outcomes. Accordingly, pathways approaches include diversified methodologies, with scope for reorienting and adjusting methods for different decision contexts. This special issue explores both theoretical and empirical cases of adaptation pathways in different contexts. A learning framework on adaptation pathways has been developed from a systematic review of adaptation literature. In this editorial, the framework is used to characterize the twelve case studies presented in the special issue, followed by a synthesis of lessons which point to some critical research gaps in adaptation pathways. • Pathways approaches have diversified methods for different decision contexts. • Engaging stakeholders with different values, goals, and knowledge was well represented in the literature. • Pathways development underestimates the complexity of path dependencies. • Monitoring and evaluation approaches are underrepresented in pathways literature and practices. • Using a learning framework accommodates structured analysis of pathways approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an urgent need in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to enhance irrigation access to meet the challenges of growing population and climate risk. To achieve this, big investments are currently planned in large irrigation infrastructure. We believe there is danger in following this conventional approach, which requires big lumpsum investments, locking large capital into projects that do not adapt to deep uncertainties from climatic or socio-political factors. Instead, in this Perspective article, we propose an alternate "adaptive investment pathways" (AdIP) approach for planning step-wise investments towards desired objectives, implemented progressively depending on how the future unfolds, in order to gain flexibility. AdIP extends the adaptation pathways concept, which refers to a sequence of actions to be taken in response to a changing reality, and applies it to the context of development under uncertainty. Monitoring and learning is at the heart of this approach, which ensures that the plan adapts as new knowledge becomes available. Thus, AdIP internalizes risk and reduces chances of failures. For financial institutions backing development projects, following a pathway of smaller de-centralized investments lowers risk and incorporates a learning approach that allows re-thinking and adapting along the path. We illustrate the AdIP approach using the case of ephemeral sand river based small-scale irrigation in the drylands of SSA. We conclude that in face of deep uncertainties, the path to successful irrigation development in SSA requires a shift from making few large upfront investments in large-scale projects to making large numbers of smaller investments that assure flexibility. • Conventional approach to irrigation development in sub-Saharan Africa is not adaptive. • It requires large lumpsum investment that is locked-in and cannot adapt to changing climate and socio-economic environment. • We propose an adaptive investment pathways (AdIP) approach to gain flexibility and reduce risk of investment. • AdIP extends the adaptation pathways idea to the development context to seize opportunities while adapting to uncertainties. • Monitoring and learning is key to identify saturation points and trigger progressive incremental investments to meet the goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For operational use there is a need to identify a set of measures that quantify the resilience. The 'CoastRes' project, a component of the UK Climate Resilience Programme, examined how an operational interpretation of resilience might be applied to the coast, building on existing approaches to shoreline management in the UK. The development of the methodology and resulting Coastal Resilience Model has been reported elsewhere. For this communication, we provide a brief summary of the management framework, the Coastal Resilience Model (CRM) and the preparation of the datasets, so that the limitations of the data available at a national scale are clear. We then illustrate how the Coastal Resilience Model has been implemented as the web-based CRM Portal. The purpose of the portal is to allow users to explore (i) the implications of future change on local and national resilience; and (ii) their own view of the relative importance of the Performance Measures that make up the Coastal Resilience Index. By exploring the influence of these weightings it is hoped that Stakeholders can develop a shared understanding of what is important for coastal communities. The CRM Portal can be accessed at: https://coastalresilience.uk/crm/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing temperatures and sea levels, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme weather pose severe threats for vulnerable communities, ecosystems, and livelihoods in cities of developing countries. Realizing these threats has heightened scholarly inquiry on future risk trends of climate change and adaptation strategies in the countries of Global South and North. However, most studies are based on data of North America, Europe, and Asia. There is minimal documentation of adaptation strategies to mitigate the risk of extreme weather in cities of Sub-Saharan Africa. Hence, this study addresses this need by examining the factors influencing individual and household adaptation strategies to climate risk in Port Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria. Data was collected from 384 randomly selected household heads in different residential densities of the city. Household socioeconomic and demographic attributes, awareness of climate change and factors influencing their adaptation strategies to climate risk were assessed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The study showed that adaptation strategies adopted were reactive rather than anticipatory and varied in magnitude according to the different residential densities. Recommendations emanating from the study include integrating and implementing climate change adaptation policies and embarking on a rigorous awareness campaign to ease households' vulnerability and augment their climate change absorptive, adaptive, and transformative abilities in the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significance, approaches, and instruments of knowledge and capacity development (KCD) in water management are reviewed, and priorities for the future are proposed. These concepts have become more mainstream, critical in helping water organisations decide on and implement policies, and generating economic returns. Their application still tends to be often limited to education or ‘training’. KCD requires an understanding of the physical world, how institutions must be strengthened to manage it, and how pedagogical and knowledge-management tools, in turn, strengthen the institutions. The private sector first applied knowledge management. The international development theory highlighted the deficiency of governments in implementation capacity. The health and environmental communities are developing an ‘implementation science’ to enhance the capacity to operationalise know-how faster. Advances in KCD include the following: (1) knowledge and capacity converging in nested levels (individual, organisational, institutional, and societal) to cause effective action; (2) six arenas/contexts of KCD application; and (3) pedagogy and knowledge-management through which learning occurs and knowledge is imparted. KCD is a ‘sticky’, slow process. Policy analyses tend to overlook the role of KCD. The water sector is facing acute challenges: a new one of building resilient water-and-land systems and adapting to climate change, and the outstanding one of achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Thus, the current KCD must be scaled up, and also structured with a longer-term perspective to support change and reform at policy and organisational levels building on iterative adaption. Policies should become pro-active shaped by modelled forecasts; and organisations more able to change and adapt to future scenarios that are complex, uncertain, and evolving rapidly. Enhancing the capacity to implement policies, establish ‘learning organisations’, and design iterative adaptive pathways requires sustained political commitment. While adopting a long-term programme, supportive KCD activities should stay realistic and manageable. HIGHLIGHTS KCD improves water management.; Instruments are drawn from pedagogy, education, and management.; Capacity to implement policies is often deficient.; Water sector must prepare for transitions due to economic growth and climate change, demanding capacity for adaptive management.; Looking forward, a new agenda is proposed to enhance implementation capacity and design iterative adaptive pathways.;

[Display omitted] • We provide lessons on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches. • Adaptive pathways analyses are increasingly applied in practice globally. • Methods include narratives, modelling, workshops, forecasting and backcasting. • Pathways have opened up space for understanding of risks and solutions. • Ways forward include accounting for interacting pathways and transformative adaptation. Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the '10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper elaborates lessons learned on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review, we find that: a) adaptive pathways analyses have been applied widely and are moving from theory to practice; b) an adaptive pathways analysis can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; d) the complexity of adaptive pathways as a result of multiple actors, values, hazards, and actions at various scales for different purposes is a challenge, and this is increasingly considered through various extensions and combinations with other approaches. Ways forward to address weaknesses and current challenges include: accounting for coevolution between multiple actors across different scales (e.g., through interactive and multilevel pathways) and combining an adaptive pathways analysis with visioning and backcasting approaches for transformative adaptation and operationalizing climate resilient development pathways. To enable further applications in practice, it is important that experiences are shared and governance issues (e.g. long-term planning and funding) addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic adaptation policy pathways provide a roadmap for coastal communities to establish a suite of sea level rise adaptation responses based on observation-driven signals of increasing risk. This adaptation approach relies heavily on iterative assessment of sea level rise observations and model projections. Remote sensing capabilities from satellites offer an opportunity to assess a consistent set of observational data indicators, around which adaptation pathways can be built. The large-scale nature and broad coverage of satellite observations provide the benefit of consistent monitoring capabilities across the globe, for regions with differing needs, resources, and monitoring capacities. In this study, we identify four categories of data indicators that can be monitored with satellites to support decision making in adaptation pathways: sea level rise, individual processes contributing to sea level rise, impacts of sea level rise, and impacts on implemented adaptation strategies. We review these categories in relation to existing adaptation pathway signposts and the available satellite data. As we highlight the opportunities for satellite-based contributions to sea level adaptation pathways, we also outline potential limitations, opportunities to overcome these limitations, and future steps that can be taken to integrate satellite observations into adaptation pathways.

IntroductionIn 2018, the Rhine transport sector experienced an unprecedented low water crisis, during which large cargo vessels were no longer able to navigate on certain sections of the river. This led to a major disruption in inland waterway transport. This article aims at questioning how the crisis acted as a stimulus for port authorities and their customers to consider the risks for their assets and operations and as a window of opportunity for creating a new collective and for defining “solutions.”MethodologyInspired by the Impact Chain methodology, a step-by-step protocol integrating focus groups and interviews, was applied so that stakeholders affected by low waters can identify their individual and common vulnerability and define possible ways of acting (pathways).ResultsOne of these pathways, the transitional infrastructural pathway, targets to increase the water level and overcome low water levels (use of Lake Constance as a water reservoir or creation of new water storage areas; deepening of the channel at Kaub and Maxau). It appears as the most suitable because it is a technical, well-controlled process that provides a comfortable solution in the short term. It exemplifies the lock-ins set by infrastructure.DiscussionHowever, the participative approach also highlights the fundamental challenge of developing new processes and new intermodal organizations in the long term.

The Ovar coastline is characterized as one of the coastal areas with the highest vulnerability and risk of erosion in the Portuguese coast. The high-energy coast is further threatened by a permanent sediment deficit of anthropic origin, as well as sea level rise due to climate change. It is essential to define modern coastal adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of these issues on the local communities, while considering social, environmental, and economic factors. It is in this territory that the INCCA project's case study is located, involving stakeholders with technical, scientific, and operational knowledge in the co-management of the coastal stretch. In the scope of the involvement intended for the project's development, five participatory events were held, involving local authorities, civil protection, public entities, academia, and the general community. These events allowed a multidisciplinary and multi-stakeholder analysis of the challenges and possible solutions to mitigate coastal erosion, representing the definition of a shared vision for the coastline's future in this municipality. This work presents the main results of this participatory process as well as reflections on the importance of active citizenship instruments and stakeholder involvement for integrated coastal management in the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies indicate Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) on industrial land can provide substantial adaptive flood mitigation within urban catchments under climate change. To identify a cost-effective adaptive GSI network, planners need to evaluate flood mitigation capabilities of industrial properties through time and understand key characteristics informing when, where, and how GSI should be implemented for maximum effect. We applied the Hydrology-based Land Capability Assessment and Classification (HLCA+C) methodology to a catchment in Christchurch, New Zealand, to evaluate the capabilities of industrial properties clustered into Storm Water Management (SWM) zones under different climate change scenarios. SWM zone potentials and limitations were assessed to develop the most capable adaptive flood mitigation network with climate change. We prioritised six of twenty SWM zones for inclusion in the network based on their substantial flood mitigation capabilities. To maximise their capabilities through time, we orchestrated, and implemented GSI in zones incrementally, using different implementation approaches based on key characteristics determining their capability. The results indicated that the most capable zone could mitigate climate change-induced flooding, by itself, up to the end of this century under the moderate climate change scenario. However, if its capability was combined with that of five others, together they could mitigate flooding just shy of that associated with the major climate change scenario up to the end of this century. The resulting adaptive industrial GSI network not only provides substantial flood protection for communities but allows costly investments in flood mitigation structures, such as barriers and levees, to be safely delayed until their cost-effectiveness has been confirmed under increased climate certainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation pathways have been conventionally viewed as an approach for planning and identifying different adaptation options and the ways in which they can be realized. However, there has been scant consideration of the wide diversity of cultural and social processes which shape how adaptation pathways emerge. We argue that a cultural lens sheds light on differential vulnerability and the processes that enable or hinder adaptation. A cultural lens focuses intrinsically on intersectional categories which can impact the adaptive agency or resilience of individuals, households, and communities. In particular, we need to examine how cultural beliefs, norms, and practices change over time, and are reflected in adaptation pathways since livelihoods do not remain the same over the life course. Additionally, taking a broader perspective by incorporating concepts from cognitive anthropology helps us understand motivations and choices which influence adaptation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation pathways are decision-making processes which sequence actions over time to account for rapid change and future uncertainty. In developing economies pathways practice can guide climate-resilient development (CRD) but is hampered by complex political dynamics, intensified by 'resource curses' of abundant natural resources. We tested an adaptation pathways approach for large-scale natural resource development in Papua New Guinea's Bismarck Sea. We engaged with five contested development proposals for deep sea mining, oil palm and tourism to integrate CRD principles into decision-making. The process involved three steps: mapping decision-making and power, participatory pathways planning, and evaluation and learning. CRD-relevant information was fed into decision-making about the proposals. 'Political spaces' were created through participatory planning that levelled power asymmetries, enabled common interests to emerge, democratised knowledge co-production, enhanced networks and coordination, and galvanised collective action to re-design the proposals with CRD considerations. The common political interests formed leverage points for conflict transformation and collaboration. Evaluation revealed the suspension of an oil palm development to allow a landuse plan to be formulated to account for food security, conservation and climate adaptation. The study highlighted three learnings: the importance of analysing politics and power in decision-making and identifying leverage points; the challenges for researchers wishing to create political spaces; and the necessity for capacity-building amongst local knowledge brokers to continue this role. We conclude by assessing the feasibility of mainstreaming this approach into decision-making in resource curses, dubbed by one decision-maker as 'walking along with development'. • Large-scale development decisions are highly political and potentially maladaptive. • We test an adaptation pathways approach to mainstream climate change into decisions. • Analysing power enabled the creation of political spaces for conflict transformation. • Leverage points of mutual political interest allowed redesign of development proposals. • Capacity of local knowledge brokers must be supported to maintain pathways processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) were initially developed to inform decision processes relating to climate change and then extended to other natural resource management decisions, including issues around integrated water resources management. Despite their intention to support long-term planning decisions, model uptake has generally been limited, partly due to their unfulfilled capability to manage deep uncertainty issues and consider multiple perspectives and trade-offs involved when solving problems of interest. In recent years, more emphasis has been put on the need for existing models to evolve to be used for exploratory modeling and analysis to capture and manage deep uncertainty. Building new models is a solution but may face challenges in terms of feasibility and the conservation of knowledge assets. Integration and augmentation of existing models is another solution, but little guidance exists on how to realize model augmentation that addresses deep uncertainty and how to use such models for exploratory modeling purposes. To provide guidance on how to augment existing models to support decisions under deep uncertainty we present an approach for identifying minimum information requirements (MIRs) that consists of three steps: (1) invoking a decision support framework [here, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)] to synthesize information requirements, (2) characterizing misalignment with an existing integrated model, (3) designing adjustable solutions that align model output with immediate information needs. We employ the Basin Futures model to set up the approach and illustrate outcomes in terms of its effectiveness to augment models for exploratory purposes, as well as its potential for supporting the design of adaptative pathways. The results are illustrated in the context of the Brahmani River Basin (BRB) system and discussed in terms of generalization and transferability of the approach to identifying MIRs. Future work directions include the refinement and evaluation of the approach in a planning context and testing of the approach with other models.

This article considers the traditional water systems of indigenous cultures and explores their innovations as unique responses to the impacts of climate change in the global south. Local communities have been living with and developing water-responsive infrastructures for generations that engage and support the complex ecosystems they inhabit. Many of these innovations improve coastal resiliency, yet remain undocumented and unexplored in the evolution of contemporary solutions. Rooted in traditional ecological knowledge, or TEK, these technologies work symbiotically with, rather than against nature, and offer examples of a more comprehensive approach to underwater and intertidal design. These innovations are Lo—TEK, a term coined by designer and author Julia Watson, that is defined as resilient infrastructures developed by indigenous people through Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) (Watson 2019). The movement to bring these innovations to the forefront of the design field counters the idea that Lo—TEK indigenous innovation is low-tech, a term often incorrectly applied to indigenous innovation that means unsophisticated, uncomplicated, and primitive. In actuality, Lo—TEK aligns to today’s sustainable values of low-energy, low-impact and low-cost, while producing complex nature-based innovations that are inherently sustainable. Lo-TEK expands the definition of contemporary technology by rebuilding our understanding of climate resilient design using indigenous knowledge and practices that are sustainable, adaptable, and borne out of necessity. Indigenous people have learned to live symbiotically with their environments, especially water. This essay will explore the Kuttanad Kayalnilam Farming System by the Malayalis in India, the Sangjiyutang Mulberry Dyke and Fish Ponds in China, and the Ramli Lagoon farms in Ghar El Melh, Tunisia. These innovations are inherently resilient to the stresses of the climate and are multi-functional, symbiotic structures themselves. While not directly intended for protection from the new challenge of sea level rise, they can inform how we can build circular water systems that work with the environment, rather than disrupting it.

• Nature's contributions to adaptation (NCA) are critical to achieve stakeholders' desired adaptation. • Unlike the social system, ecosystem capacity for ecosystem-based adaptation implementation is not limiting. • The local community will be most challenged for activating deep leverage points. • Combinations of NCA co-production actions and leverage points open windows of opportunities for adaptation. Ecosystems support the adaptation of societies to global changes through their contributions to people's quality of life. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) implementation remains a challenge and will require changes of practices, structures and processes underpinning human and nature interactions, also considered as co-production of nature's contributions to adaptation (NCA). We analysed the levers required to implement EBA to reach a future desired by stakeholders of a mountain social-ecological system in the French Alps. Using a participatory backcasting scenario approach and a serious game, local stakeholders were invited to design a desired vision for their region in 2040 and reflect on strategies and levers for reaching it. We analysed co-production actions required to achieve adaptation objectives aligned with the vision. We then assessed how local communities can leverage these actions to navigate a desired adaptation pathway. EBA and landscape multifunctionality are critical to achieve stakeholders' vision. EBA require substantial adjustments, transformations, or new co-production actions, but natural capital was not a limiting factor for adaptation. Synergies among multiple co-production actions create windows of opportunity for local communities to achieve their vision through the combination of social levers. However, most powerful levers, like collaborative decision-making or common strategy design, appeared the most difficult to activate. EBA is mainly constrained here by social barriers reflecting the lack of collaboration and communication among stakeholders. Recognizing potential contributions of ecosystems to adaptation by maintaining and developing NCA supply can help communities to re-structure and re-think their local social-ecological system to achieve desired and sustainable pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientists increasingly cross their disciplinary boundaries and connect with local stakeholders to jointly solve complex problems. Working with stakeholders means higher legitimacy and supports practical impact of research. Games provide a tool to achieve such transdisciplinary collaboration. In this paper, we explore the use of a game in a participatory project where scientists and local stakeholders are seeking and defining a joint problem. The literature is clear that this step is essential but remains short on concrete methods. Here, we explore this potential in practice. We conducted parallel participatory processes in two alpine regions considered as socio-ecological system (SES) in Switzerland and France, both vulnerable to global change. Based on these two case studies, we co-constructed a game, integrating scientific concerns about key land use, climate change and socio-economic elements of a mountain SES (tourism, agriculture, housing and demography). With the game, we assessed the existence of joint problems connecting scientific and local interests. The game successfully engaged participants at both sites over 11 game sessions, showing potential of use in other transdisciplinary settings. By covering a wide array of issues, the game created a discussion space for listing problems and identifying where scientist and stakeholder interests overlap. In Switzerland, the game revealed no pressing joint problem to be addressed. In France, game sessions revealed, among other problems, an enduring and complex issue regarding the co-existence of inhabitants and powerful institutions. Having demonstrated the capacity of this game for joint-problem assessment, we believe other participatory research in similar SES could benefit from an early use of such an approach to frame the potential for collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies indicate Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) on industrial land can provide substantial adaptive flood mitigation within urban catchments under climate change. To identify a cost-effective adaptive GSI network, planners need to evaluate flood mitigation capabilities of industrial properties through time and understand key characteristics informing when, where, and how GSI should be implemented for maximum effect. We applied the Hydrology-based Land Capability Assessment and Classification (HLCA+C) methodology to a catchment in Christchurch, New Zealand, to evaluate the capabilities of industrial properties clustered into Storm Water Management (SWM) zones under different climate change scenarios. SWM zone potentials and limitations were assessed to develop the most capable adaptive flood mitigation network with climate change. We prioritised six of twenty SWM zones for inclusion in the network based on their substantial flood mitigation capabilities. To maximise their capabilities through time, we orchestrated, and implemented GSI in zones incrementally, using different implementation approaches based on key characteristics determining their capability. The results indicated that the most capable zone could mitigate climate change-induced flooding, by itself, up to the end of this century under the moderate climate change scenario. However, if its capability was combined with that of five others, together they could mitigate flooding just shy of that associated with the major climate change scenario up to the end of this century. The resulting adaptive industrial GSI network not only provides substantial flood protection for communities but allows costly investments in flood mitigation structures, such as barriers and levees, to be safely delayed until their cost-effectiveness has been confirmed under increased climate certainty.

The Ovar coastline is characterized as one of the coastal areas with the highest vulnerability and risk of erosion in the Portuguese coast. The high-energy coast is further threatened by a permanent sediment deficit of anthropic origin, as well as sea level rise due to climate change. It is essential to define modern coastal adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of these issues on the local communities, while considering social, environmental, and economic factors. It is in this territory that the INCCA project’s case study is located, involving stakeholders with technical, scientific, and operational knowledge in the co-management of the coastal stretch. In the scope of the involvement intended for the project’s development, five participatory events were held, involving local authorities, civil protection, public entities, academia, and the general community. These events allowed a multidisciplinary and multi-stakeholder analysis of the challenges and possible solutions to mitigate coastal erosion, representing the definition of a shared vision for the coastline’s future in this municipality. This work presents the main results of this participatory process as well as reflections on the importance of active citizenship instruments and stakeholder involvement for integrated coastal management in the 21st century.

Australian local governments are expected to be the frontline of climate change adaptation implementation, but existing institutional arrangements are inadequate. Institutional changes that make adaptation pathways part of land use planning policy are needed and how this might happen is assessed using New South Wales (NSW), Australia, as a case study. The most effective implementation mechanism is identified as an independent adaptation statute integrated with land use planning. The institutional assessment approach employed is potentially useful for identifying adaptation policy implications in planning systems and is of relevance to ogoing research into local level adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many cities in developing countries, the design and implementation of flood adaptation measures face planning challenges, they are often underdeveloped in practice. This paper aims to investigate the potential for urban flood adaptation solutions and design in practice within the context of a climate-vulnerable Southeast Asian city. We specifically explore the "design workshop" -- an essential process providing valuable experience and conditions for effective climate adaptation in Bangkok. As part of our research, the workshop was organized to introduce and experiment the implication of adaptation pathway approach with designers, urban planners, and decision-makers. Findings reveal that the design workshop provided a collaborative environment, offers transformative space for formulating integrated and context-specific flood adaptation solutions - new possibilities for urban climate resilience in the making. The application of the adaptation pathways facilitates a concrete, quantifiable, and time-bound design process for identifying and sequencing potential flood adaptation measures in Bangkok. Consequently, this paper concludes that multidisciplinary and collaborative processes, along with the introduction of adaptation pathways, stimulating urban flood adaptation planning and implementation in a more collaborative and participative way. However, it is important to note that the feasibility assessment of the proposed solutions still requires essential conditions such as policy synchronization, technical skills, and local resources. To effectively realize these strategies in real-world urban planning practice, this research suggests that local governments should consider implementing a multidisciplinary design process in urban development and flood risk management. • There are opportunities for assessing co-benefits of adaptation measures at the local level. • The flood resilience planning should incorporate real-time data to identify long-term adaptation strategies. • The local government should invite a stimulating design approach along with experimentation of various adaptive measures. • Multidisciplinary approaches are essential for successful flood resilience planning in Bangkok. • The Adaptation Pathways helps to demonstrate the possibilities for long-term perspectives in Flood Risk Management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firms today face rapidly changing and complex environments that managers and leaders must navigate carefully because confronting these changes is directly connected with success and failure in business. In particular, business leaders are adopting a new paradigm of planning, dynamic adaptive plans, which react adaptively to uncertainties by adjusting plans according to rapid changes in circumstances. However, these dynamic plans have been applied in larger-scale industries such as wastewater management in longer-range time frames. This paper follows the dynamic adaptive plan paradigm but transfers it to the technology management context with shorter-range action plans. Based on this new paradigm of risk management and technology planning, we propose a risk-adaptive technology roadmap (TRM) that can adapt to changing complex environments. First we identify risk by topic modeling based on futuristic data and then by sentiment analysis. Second, for the derived risks, we determine new and alternative plans by co-occurrence of risk-related keywords. Third, we convert an existing TRM to network topology with adaptive plans and construct a conditional probability table for the network. Finally, we estimate posterior probability and infer it by Bayesian network by adjusting plans depending on occurrence of risk events. Based on this posterior probability, we remap the paths in the previous TRM to new maps, and we apply our proposed approach to the field of artificial intelligence to validate its feasibility. Our research contributes to the possibility of using dynamic adaptive planning with technology as well as to increase the sustainability of technology roadmapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs are one of the ecosystems most sensitive to climate change. The recent loss and degradation of coral reef ecosystems is expected to continue even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. There is therefore an urgent need to develop new technologies and management approaches to coral reef conservation. Emerging technologies, however, bring new challenges for decision making as they are associated with novel risks and impacts on the reef system. We argue that accounting for multiple biophysical thresholds and identifying key decisions in the planning process are crucial to avoid perverse outcomes in coral reef conservation. We identify opportunities to apply an Adaptation Pathways (AP) framework combined with a 'values, rules and knowledge' approach to facilitate long-term and large-scale coral reef conservation by explicitly considering uncertainty with climate change impacts in the decision-making process. The AP process can be used to reconcile the diverse values of stakeholders, scientific and cultural knowledge about the system, and the policy and regulatory context within which management must occur, in order to achieve robust long-term management. Climate change is a key driver of global coral reefs decline, with current management practices are expected to be insufficient in a changing world. Long-term strategic planning is needed to reduce risks of failure in coral reef conservation. Adaptation Pathways are a promising decision approach to develop a shared view of the changing systems and challenges for the conservation of coral reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change projections for the 21st century indicate an increase in the already high number of food-insecure people in India. While considerable research on vulnerability to climate change exists, research about Indian smallholder farming systems as a whole, encompassing farming strategies and development pathways in this context, is limited. Hence, the current study examines the vulnerability of three smallholder farming systems, namely, (i) crop without livestock (CWL), (ii) crop with small ruminants (CSR), and (iii) crop with dairy (CD), in the context of climate change in Telangana, India. A mixed methods approach was used to conduct the research with a sample size of ten households per farming system. We found that households of different farming systems faced differential vulnerability due to variation in perceptions of climate change exposures, access to livelihood capitals, and the farming strategies they chose. The CWL households were highly vulnerable to increased maximum temperature and erratic rainfall, while households that farmed both crop and livestock were more vulnerable to overall reduction in precipitation. Decision-making related to farming strategies was a complex process involving several factors, of which the availability of livelihood capitals, provided by government programs, was the foremost. Due to this, households of the different farming systems pursued divergent farming strategies, leading to varying types of adaptation and climate change resilience. Among the three farming systems, the households in the CWL system had the least access to all livelihood capitals and showed the highest vulnerability as their farm strategies only helped to cope with immediate needs. The households in the CD system had access to all critical livelihood capitals, which facilitated opting for sustainable farming strategies. However, as these households were highly dependent on scarce ground water resources for production, their strategies helped only short-term adaption. The households in the CSR system, despite having access to limited capitals, adopted long-term adaptation strategies which is attributed to them being a pastoral ethnic group. Lastly, despite the existence of an integrated climate change policy, state-level development programs continue to focus more on agricultural intensification than on climate change adaptation. This stimulates farming strategies that are lucrative in the short term but endanger farming system resilience to climate change in the long term. We therefore recommend policy makers to give high priority to climate smart development in state development programs, and science-based evaluations of these programs to enable proper climate change adaptation in dryland regions that is inclusive of perspectives of different populations.

Adaptation requires planning strategies that consider the combined effect of climatic and non-climatic drivers, which are deeply uncertain. This uncertainty arises from many sources, cascades and accumulates in risk estimates. A prominent trend to incorporate this uncertainty in adaptation planning is through adaptive approaches such as the dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP). We present a quantitative DAPP application for coastal erosion management to increase its utilisation in this field. We adopt an approach in which adaptation objectives and actions have continuous quantitative metrics that evolve over time as conditions change. The approach hinges on an adaptation information system that comprises hazard and impact modelling and systematic monitoring to assess changing risks and adaptation signals in the light of adaptation pathway choices. Using an elaborated case study, we force a shoreline evolution model with waves and storm surges generated by means of stochastic modelling from 2010 to 2100, considering uncertainty in extreme weather events, climate variability and mean sea-level rise. We produce a new type of adaptation pathways map showing a set of 90-year probabilistic trajectories that link changing objectives (e.g., no adaptation, limit risk increase, avoid risk increase) and nourishment placement over time. This DAPP approach could be applied to other domains of climate change adaptation bringing a new perspective in adaptive planning under deep uncertainty.

Without adaptation, sea-level rise (SLR) will put more people at risk of flooding. This requires a timely and adequate commitment to adaptation. In this paper, we show how adaptation needs to unfold over time to manage climate-induced SLR. We use a novel scenario-neutral approach, applied globally and subsequently combined with SLR and population scenarios, to assess when, where, and how fast to adapt up to 2150. As rates of SLR accelerate, adaptation needs to occur at an increasing pace or at a larger scale. While it is certain that adaptation will be necessary, it is uncertain when and how fast. After only ∼ 0.15 m SLR relative to 2020, 1 million people need to adapt to permanent submergence and the amount of people at risk of a 100-year flood increases with 21% to 83 million people. This would occur in the next 30 (20–45) years for RCP4.5 and within 25 (18–36) years under RCP8.5, assuming no change in protection or population. The uncertainty in timing increases with higher SLR, albeit for some impacts it can still a matter of time. Population at risk of a 100-year flood doubles after 0.75 m SLR which could occur by ∼ 2080 (2068–2088), 2100 (2085–2130), or 2150 (2115-beyond 2150) under a high-end, RCP8.5, or RCP4.5 scenario respectively. The rate, at which the risk increases, differs strongly per country. In some countries an additional 1–5 million people of the present population will be at risk of a 100-year flood within the next two decades, while others have more time to adapt but will see rapid growth of risk past 2100. Combining SLR impacts with projected population change further increases the number of people at risk of a 100-year flood by ∼13% between 2040–2060 (under both RCP8.5-SSP5 and RCP4.5-SSP2). This can be managed through protecting, floodproofing or limiting developments in high-risk areas. A commitment to adaptation is inevitable to maintain risk at present levels. With increasing warnings of the potential for accelerated SLR due to rapid ice sheet melt, adaptation may need to happen faster and sooner than previously anticipated which can have consequences for how to adapt. Failure to acknowledge the potential and long-term (including beyond 2100) adaptation commitment in development and adaptation planning may lead to a commitment gap and subsequently expensive retrofitting of infrastructure, creation of stranded assets, and less time to adapt at greater cost. In contrast, considering the long-term adaptation commitment can support timely adaptation and alignment with other societal goals.

• Understanding power structures is critical for sustainable future planning. • Engaging strategic partners facilitates a sustainable adaptation pathways process. • Context-specific nature of adaptation pathways makes it difficult to replicate them. • Sustainable adaptation pathways processes require time to materialize. Adaptation Pathways have emerged as promising approaches for exploring sequences of actions to address challenges in uncertain conditions. This study elaborates on how pathway approaches operate in practice by applying a learning framework that identifies guiding propositions for successful adaptation pathways. The framework is used to analyze a transformative scenario planning case study from rural Mali. Findings confirm that adaptation pathways are highly context-specific, grounded in local institutions. The study also emphasizes that the adaptation pathways process requires a sufficient timeframe to allow for cross-level interactions and institutional changes to unfold as needed. The case demonstrates that the framework can be a useful tool for reflexive learning and identifying gaps in a structured way during pathway development. However, it needs to be adjusted to specific contexts to better capture the influence of and implications for power relations and social inequality in future adaptation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Adaptation pathways have become recognised as sequences of actions, which can be implemented progressively, depending on future dynamics • Pathways can be alternatives towards a defined objective or broad directions of change for different strategic outcomes • Pathways approaches orientate around performance-thresholds, multiple-stakeholders or transformation • Pathways are developed to meet adaptation needs, promote collaborative learning and /or enable transformations • Reflexive learning is needed on pathways approaches to realise their potential in different decision contexts. Adaptation pathways have experienced growing popularity as a decision-focussed approach in climate adaptation research and planning. Despite the increasing and broadening use of adaptation pathways reported in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic attempt to review, compare and contrast approaches to adaptation pathways design and their application. In this paper we address this gap through a literature review of conceptual and applied studies of adaptation pathways in the context of climate change. Adaptation pathways started to be conceptualised in 2010. They have become recognised as sequences of actions, which can be implemented progressively, depending on how the future unfolds and the development of knowledge. A difference between scholars is whether pathways are understood as alternative sequences of measures to realise a well-defined adaptation objective, or as broad directions of change for different strategic aims or outcomes. Analysis of case studies on adaptation pathways development showed three clusters of approaches: (a) performance-threshold oriented, (b) multi-stakeholder oriented, and (c) transformation oriented approaches. These broadly correspond to three desired outcomes of pathways development: (i) meeting short and long-term adaptation needs, (ii) promoting collaborative learning, adaptive planning and adaptive capacity, (iii) accounting for complexity and long-term change, including a potential need for transformation. Yet, as of now there is little evidence of the utility of different approaches for pathways development in different decision contexts. Scholars appear to be guided more by how they understand the adaptation problem and by what approaches are known to them, than by the context of the case. Attention is needed on who defines objectives and outcomes for pathway development. Based on the review, we present a learning framework to guide systematic reflection about why and how adaptation pathways are developed. Lessons learned by application of the framework will enable refinement of pathways approaches to make full use of the potential in different decision contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Adaptation pathways are contingent processes highly influenced by wealth, age and gender. • Social and technical aspects of climate change adaptation pathways are fundamentally intertwined. • Focusing on adaptation practices and processes as units of analysis enables identification of the mechanisms of social differentiation. • Adaptation policies and interventions should anticipate socially differentiated pathways to avoid exacerbating existing inequalities. Climate change adaptation literature on pastoralists often embraces a systems approach that uses aggregate analysis, giving a false assumption of community homogeneity. It assumes that a pastoral community is a coherent unit, an assumption that does not adequately capture the increasingly differentiated adaptation pathways. Analyzing key adaptation practices among Maasai (agro-) pastoralists' of Laikipia County, we outline how wealth, age and gender differentiate actors' adaptation pathways. We argue that adaptation pathways are political processes highly negotiated by these elements of social differentiation and that individual actors adaptation opportunities are substantially shaped by their social positions. Additionally, we make the case for using adaptation practices as focal points for adaptation pathways research because this methodological choice allows unpacking who, why and how questions in the uptake of emerging technical adaptation practices, especially how they are influenced by individual social positions of wealth, age and gender. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas host a significant part of the world population and of humankind’s adaptation needs in the face of effects of climate change, especially sea-level rise and ocean warming and acidification. Atoll islands illustrate frontline situations due to their biophysical (low elevation, small land area, 360°-exposure to waves, limited natural resources and fragile ecosystems) and human (high population densities in urban environments, low level of development, limited technical and financial capacities) characteristics. In these contexts, it is urgent to understand the space for societal adaptation and based on this, identify robust and context-specific adaptation strategies. This essay builds on the hypothesis that, given the nature of atoll islands, understanding the way and extent to which local human-driven disturbances affect the reef-island system’s capacity to provide coastal protection services, is a relevant entry point. Using the case of the Maldives, we propose to combine five types of adaptation into a generic adaptation pathway, and apply it to atoll island types going from no to highly disturbed environments. This work highlights two major conclusions: first, that diverse island profiles require different adaptation pathways; second, that in contexts under high human pressure, the window of opportunities for diversified adaptation strategies is closing fast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainable development and food security of islands in the Asia-Pacific region is severely compromised by climate change, sea level rise and compounding socio-economic issues. To achieve a step-change in food production and climate adaptation, livelihoods must rapidly transform. Food security programs continue to apply the “pipeline” model of scaling-out technological innovations, but do not account for the social-ecological complexity of islands. We tested the feasibility of scaling-out adaptation strategies in two provinces in the region: Nusa Tenggara Barat in Indonesia, and West New Britain in Papua New Guinea. Guided by a sub-district typology of resource use, we trialled a participatory, systems-based livelihood adaptation pathways approach in sub-district case studies. The process aimed to mainstream social learning and future uncertainty into community development decision-making, yielding ‘no regrets' adaptation strategies to transform livelihoods. We tested two assumptions: first, that because the contexts of all villages were homogenous, strategies were sufficiently similar to enable scaling-out across the provinces; second, that the sub-district typologies would assist scaling-out within each type. The results showed that the first assumption was untenable: there was very little similarity amongst villages' strategies; only sustainable fisheries management was scalable amongst coastal villages. The second was marginally tenable, because there were strong similarities amongst villages in an off-shore island type. When pooled into classes of adaptation strategy, most related to practice and behaviour change, and addressed systemic social issues; very few were technological. Our results suggest that scaling-out livelihood and food system innovations is not feasible due to the complex social-ecological contexts within islands, caused by steep climate gradients, natural resource and cultural diversity. We discuss the limitations of a resource use typology that aimed to mitigate this complexity and guide scaling-out. Instead we argue that appropriate social learning approaches akin to livelihood adaptation pathways must be mainstreamed into existing community development decision cycles, thereby “scaling-up” and “scaling-deep” to tackle institutional, political and cultural barriers to transformation. We discuss the implications of our recommendations for government and donor support for food security programs in islands of the Asia-Pacific region, and future research priorities.

Approaches to decision making for adaptation need to be place-centred and to consider the interacting changes that occur at different spatiotemporal scales. Τhe adaptation pathways approach provides an interesting input to this end. In this article, we fine-tune the adaptation pathways considerations to the management and governance of water in tourist islands vulnerable to water stress. We base our analysis on literature on climate change, adaptive Integrated Water Resources Management and governance, water and tourism, and social-ecological systems. We illustrate our theoretical analysis with the example of the Southern Aegean islands in Greece, based on secondary sources and interviews with stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This article explores adaptation pathways to climate change in coastal areas. • Six territorial archetypes are defined to be representative of the French coastal territories. • The pathways identify different and common resources and levers for each archetype. • A rapid rise in sea level reduces adaptation capacities for structural changes. • An ambitious and early mitigation policy results in more robust adaptation pathways. The attractiveness and urbanisation of coastal zones increase their vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise, in particular to flooding and marine erosion. In the face of the projected increase in losses and damages, the anticipation and measures needed for adaptation involve physical, socioeconomic and political dimensions at different governance levels and timescales. A large literature addresses these various issues, generally in a targeted way. Drawing on adaptive policy pathways approaches and on research results of the past decade in mainland France, this article proposes an interdisciplinary characterisation of long-term adaptation pathways in coastal areas. Among the different variables and processes of change that characterise coastal zones and their future, particular emphasis is placed on social and institutional dynamics. This work contributes to the debate about adaptive governance in a highly uncertain context as well as to recent work to explore pathways and tipping points in support of climate adaptation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past studies have projected that global mean sea levels could be up to between 0.98 and 2.92 m higher by the year 2100 than pre-industrial levels, which could seriously affect wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). However, there is currently a lack of guidelines regarding how these types of installations can adapt to sea level rise (SLR). The present research analyzes how SLR might affect WWTPs that are situated near the coastline and how they can adapt by using experiences of land subsidence as a proxy. The Tohoku region in northern Japan experienced severe land subsidence (up to − 1.14 m in Ishinomaki city) after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The authors conducted in-depth interviews with staff from three significant WWTPs in the area to elucidate the effects that land subsidence had on their operations and how they could adapt to an increase in land subsidence or SLR. The results suggest that for land subsidence of − 0.53 m (equivalent to a SLR of + 0.53 m), the surveyed WWTPs were considered to be able to operate normally, without undertaking any major adaptation actions. Critical levels that influence the vulnerability and adaptation strategies of WWTPs to SLR were identified. These critical levels can help differentiate between the three types of SLR-induced flooding that can affect the plants, namely coastal flooding, discharge flooding and groundwater inundation. WWTPs utilizing combined sewage systems may face more difficulties when adapting to SLR. Finally, the authors proposed limit-state adaptation pathways for WWTPs situated in low-lying coastal areas, including a sequence of possible countermeasures and a timeline for specific actions to take place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]