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Purpose of review When infants and young children present with suspected physical abuse, it is critical to follow standard guidelines and rule out alternative causes of fracture and haemorrhage. A multidisciplinary team involved in the initial evaluation typically includes paediatrics, radiology, child protective services and/or law enforcement, and in complex cases, haematology, neurology, and genetics. A comprehensive genetics consultation includes review of the history of present illness, birth and past medical history, review of growth curves, family history, physical examination, radiological findings, and when indicated, biochemical and/ or genetic testing. Recent findings A number of reports have mischaracterized several genetic disorders as child abuse mimics. There is a difference between a differential diagnosis, which includes every condition that can cause a fracture and/or subdural haemorrhage, and a mimic, so called because it can be difficult to differentiate from child abuse. In this review, we discuss the differential diagnosis for infantile fractures and subdural bleeds, highlight cardinal signs and symptoms of genetic disorders, and demonstrate that these genetic disorders can be readily differentiated and diagnosed using a stepwise approach. Genetic disorders rarely, if ever, are truly mimics of child physical abuse. Summary In cases of suspected child physical abuse, multidisciplinary evaluations by paediatric specialists, keen clinical judgment, complete physical examinations, and judicious testing provides an evidence-based, time tested approach to excluding genetic disorders and diagnosing suspected child physical abuse.

The structure of a forest dictates its function, vulnerability to mortality, and ecosystem services it provides. Many aspects of the environment and management determine forest structures, such as canopy height, stand density, carbon content, etc. Environmental factors, such as climate, limit the extent to which management can maximize structures of a forest. By understanding how climate limits forest structures over large landscapes we can better quantify the potential upper limit that a forest structure can achieve independent of management. Further, by quantifying how climate limits forest structures we can deepen our understanding of the impact climate change has had and will have on our forest resources and services. This type of information goes beyond quantifying how climate will impact the pools and fluxes of a forest, which is typically done for climate change studies over large landscapes. Estimating how climate change will impact structures will allow us to quantify how climate change will impact resources and services unquantifiable by pools and fluxes alone – such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. We quantified how maximum and minimum temperatures, and precipitation limit 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area across the European continent. We found that climate zones exist that maximize each forest structure. Further, we estimated how climate change since the 1950’s has influenced the potential structures of European forests by assessing eight individual forests throughout Europe and then Europe as a whole. All three forest structures are limited in different ways depending on their location in Europe. Though some individual forests have seen a benefit from climate change, European forests on average have lost 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% of potential forest diameter, height and basal area respectively. Further, the extremes of the climate values in our study, which may support endemic life, have already begun to vanish from the entire continent.

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species., Invasive alien pests can cause large-scale forest mortality and release carbon stored in forests. Here the authors show that climate change increases the potential range of alien pests and that their impact on the carbon cycle could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe’s forests.

National and international carbon reporting systems require information on forest carbon stocks. This information can be derived from national forest inventory data and remote sensing. Here we present the conceptual challenges in assessing forest resources across Europe by combining MODIS satellite versus terrestrial driven NPP estimates calculated from 13 national forest inventory (NFI) data covering 200.000 sampling plots. The results suggest that MODIS NPP predictions using local daily climate data and addressing stand desnsity effects, provide realistic forest productivity estimates. Ignoring these effects leads to an overestimation in the estimated carbon storage of European forests derived from satellite data.

Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time.

Optical remote sensing data-based estimates of terrestrial net primary production (NPP) are released by different projects using light use efficiency-type models. Although spatial resolution of the NPP data sets is still too coarse (500–1000 m) for single forest stands, regional monitoring of forest management and growth with 25–100 ha sampling units is feasible if the NPPSAT estimates are sensitive to forest growth differences depending on soil fertility in the area of interest. In this study, NPP estimates for 2,914 mixed forest class pixels (according to the MODIS land cover map) located in Estonia were (1) obtained from three different NPPSAT products, (2) calculated using an empirical soil potential phytoproductivity (SPP) model applied to a 1:10,000 soil map (NPPSPP), and (3) calculated using stem volume increment estimates given in a forest management inventory data base (NPPFIDB). A linear multiple regression model was then used to explore the relationships of NPPSAT with the proportion of coniferous forests, the NPPSPP and distance of the pixels from the Baltic Sea coast – the variables that have been found informative in previous studies. We found a positive moderate correlation (0.57, p < 0.001) between NPPSPP and NPPFIDB. The local or downscaled meteorological data-based NPPSAT estimates were more consistent with the NPPSPP and NPPFIDB, but the correlation with NPPSAT was weak and sometimes even negative. The range of NPP estimates in NPPSAT data sets was much narrower than the range of NPPSPP or NPPFIDB. Errors in land cover maps and in estimates of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation were identified as the main reasons for NPPSAT inconsistencies.

Pan-European gridded datasets derived from a single methodology to inform researchers, policy makers and conservationists on the state of forest structures would improve our ability to study forests independent of political boundaries and along various gradients. Although National Forest Inventory (NFI) data provide information on the characteristics of forests, including carbon content, volume, height, and age, such spatial data is not available across Europe. Before this study, remotely sensed data covering all of Europe had not been utilized to produce multiple European-focused forest structure datasets over the entire continent that are methodologically consistent and comparable. We used existing European data to develop a pan-European dataset covering tons of live tree carbon and volume per hectare, mean tree height and mean tree age by integrating remotely sensed and harmonized NFI data from 13 different European countries. We produced a pan-European map for each of the four key variables on a 0.133° grid representing the time period 2000–2010.

© 2019 The Authors FORMIT-M is a widely applicable, open-access, simple and flexible, climate-sensitive forest management simulator requiring only standard forest inventory data as input. It combines a process-based carbon balance approach with a strong inventory-based empirical component. The model has been linked to the global forest sector model EFI-GTM to secure consistency between timber cutting and demand, although prescribed harvest scenarios can also be used. Here we introduce the structure of the model and demonstrate its use with example simulations until the end of the 21st century in Europe, comparing different management scenarios in different regions under climate change. The model was consistent with country-level statistics of growing stock volumes (R 2 = 0.938) and its projections of climate impact on growth agreed with other studies. The management changes had a greater impact on growing stocks, harvest potential and carbon balance than projected climate change, at least in the absence of increased disturbance rates. ispartof: Environmental Modelling and Software vol:115 pages:128-143 status: published

Forests provide critical ecosystem services that ensure the sustainability of the environment and society. To manage forests on large scales, spatially explicit gridded data that describes the characteristics of these forests over the entire study area are required. There have been multiple efforts to create such data on regional and global scales. This type of gridded spatially explicit data on forest characteristics are typically done by integrating terrestrial forest inventory (NFI) and satellite-based remotely sensed data. Many studies that incorporate remotely sensed data and forest inventory data often directly compare pixels to inventory plots. The standard resolution of 0.0083° is typically used to integrate these two types of data sets. There is an assumption that, when producing gridded data sets incorporating forest inventory data, the finer the resolution the better the information. This assumption may seem intuitive, however at this resolution, in Europe, each 0.0083° cell has on average 1 NFI plot, which results in a sample with 0 degrees of freedom that represents 0.02% of the cell area. In this study, we challenge this assumption and we quantify the optimal resolution with which to compare and combine remotely sensed and NFI data from the largest collated and harmonized NFI data set in Europe including 196,434 plots. We determined that aggregating data with an original resolution of 0.0083° to between 0.0664° and 0.266° (or × 8 to × 32) produces the best agreement between these two forest inventory and remotely sensed data sets, and the lowest standard error in NFI data, and maintains the majority of the local-level spatial heterogeneity.

In allopatric species, reproductive isolation evolves through the accumulation of genetic incompatibilities. The degree of divergence required for complete reproductive isolation is highly variable across taxa, which makes the outcome of secondary contact between allopatric species unpredictable. Since before the Pliocene, two species of Anolis lizards, Anolis carolinensis and Anolis porcatus, have been allopatric, yet this period of independent evolution has not led to substantial species‐specific morphological differentiation, and therefore, they might not be reproductively isolated. In this study, we determined the genetic consequences of localized, secondary contact between the native green anole, A. carolinensis, and the introduced Cuban green anole, A. porcatus, in South Miami. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we found that the South Miami population formed a genetic cluster distinct from both parental species. Mitochondrial DNA revealed maternal A. porcatus ancestry for 35% of the individuals sampled from this population, indicating a high degree of cytonuclear discordance. Thus, hybridization with A. porcatus, not just population structure within A. carolinensis, may be responsible for the genetic distinctiveness of this population. Using tree‐based maximum‐likelihood analysis, we found support for a more recent, secondary introduction of A. porcatus to Florida. Evidence that ~33% of the nuclear DNA resulted from a secondary introduction supports the hybrid origin of the green anole population in South Miami. We used multiple lines of evidence and multiple genetic markers to reconstruct otherwise cryptic patterns of species introduction and hybridization. Genetic evidence for a lack of reproductive isolation, as well as morphological similarities between the two species, supports revising the taxonomy of A. carolinensis to include A. porcatus from western Cuba. Future studies should target the current geographic extent of introgression originating from the past injection of genetic material from Cuban green anoles and determine the consequences for the evolutionary trajectory of green anole populations in southern Florida.

We generalize the notion of fixed point homogeneous isometric group actions to the context of singular Riemannian foliations. We find that in some cases, positively curved manifolds admitting these so-called point leaf maximal SRF's are diffeo/homeomorphic to compact rank one symmetric spaces. In all cases, manifolds admitting such foliations are cohomology CROSSes or finite quotients of them. Among non-simply connected manifolds, we find examples of such foliations which are non-homogeneous, 15 pages

We prove that the boundary of an orbit space or more generally a leaf space of a singular Riemannian foliation is an Alexandrov space in its intrinsic metric, and that its lower curvature bound is that of the leaf space. A rigidity theorem for positively curved leaf spaces with maximal boundary volume is also established and plays a key role in the proof of the boundary problem., Comment: 7 pages

E-OBS(European Observations) is a gridded climate data set which contains maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation on a daily time step. The data can be as fine as 0.25° in resolution and extends over the entire European continent and parts of Africa and Asia. However, for studying regional or local climatic effects, a finer resolution would be more appropriate. A continental data set with resolution would allow research that is large in scale and still locally relevant. Until now, a climate data set with high spatial and temporal resolution has not existed for Europe. To fulfil this need, we produced a downscaled version of E-OBS, applying the delta method, which uses WorldClim climate surfaces to obtain a 0.008° (about 1 × 1 km) resolution climate data set on a daily time step covering the European Union. The new downscaled data set includes minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for the years 1951–2012. It is analysed against weather station data from six countries: Norway, Germany, France, Italy, Austria, and Spain. Our analysis of the downscaled data set shows a reduction in the mean bias error of 3 °C for mean daily minimum temperature and of 4 °C for mean daily maximum temperature. Daily precipitation improved by 0.15 mm on average for all weather stations in the validation. The entire data set is freely and publically available at ftp://palantir.boku.ac.at/Public/ClimateData.

The ecological impact of continental scale land-use policies that influence forest management is often difficult to quantify. European forest conservation began in 1909 with a marked increase in designated areas with the inception of Natura 2000 in the early 1990s. It has been shown that increases in European forest mortality may be linked to climate variability. Measuring productivity response to climate variability may be a valid proxy indicating a forest&rsquo, s ability to bear this disturbance. Net Primary Production (NPP) response to climate variability has also been linked to functional diversity within forests. Using a European specific annual MODIS NPP estimates, we assess the NPP response to climate variability differences between actively managed forests, which experience human interventions and conserved, Protected Area (PA) forests with minimal to no human impact. We found, on the continental scale, little to no differences in NPP response between managed and conserved forests. However, on the regional scale, differences emerge that are driven by the historic forest management practices and the potential speciation of the area. Northern PA forests show the same NPP response to climate variability as their actively managed counter parts. PA forests tend to have less NPP response to climate variability in the South and in older conserved forests. As the time a forest has been designated, as a PA, extends past its typically actively managed rotation length, greater differences begin to emerge between the two management types.

Net primary production (NPP) is an important ecological metric for studying forest ecosystems and their carbon sequestration, for assessing the potential supply of food or timber and quantifying the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. The global MODIS NPP dataset using the MOD17 algorithm provides valuable information for monitoring NPP at 1-km resolution. Since coarse-resolution global climate data are used, the global dataset may contain uncertainties for Europe. We used a 1-km daily gridded European climate data set with the MOD17 algorithm to create the regional NPP dataset MODIS EURO. For evaluation of this new dataset, we compare MODIS EURO with terrestrial driven NPP from analyzing and harmonizing forest inventory data (NFI) from 196,434 plots in 12 European countries as well as the global MODIS NPP dataset for the years 2000 to 2012. Comparing these three NPP datasets, we found that the global MODIS NPP dataset differs from NFI NPP by 26%, while MODIS EURO only differs by 7%. MODIS EURO also agrees with NFI NPP across scales (from continental, regional to country) and gradients (elevation, location, tree age, dominant species, etc.). The agreement is particularly good for elevation, dominant species or tree height. This suggests that using improved climate data allows the MOD17 algorithm to provide realistic NPP estimates for Europe. Local discrepancies between MODIS EURO and NFI NPP can be related to differences in stand density due to forest management and the national carbon estimation methods. With this study, we provide a consistent, temporally continuous and spatially explicit productivity dataset for the years 2000 to 2012 on a 1-km resolution, which can be used to assess climate change impacts on ecosystems or the potential biomass supply of the European forests for an increasing bio-based economy. MODIS EURO data are made freely available at ftp//palantir.boku.ac.at/Public/MODIS_EURO. © 2016 by the authors.

National and international carbon reporting systems require information on carbon stocks of forests. For this purpose, terrestrial assessment systems such as forest inventory data in combination with carbon estimation methods are often used. In this study we analyze and compare terrestrial carbon estimation methods from 12 European countries. The country-specific methods are applied to five European tree species (Fagus sylvatica L.;Quercus robur L.;Betula pendula Roth, Picea abies (L.) Karst.;Pinus sylvestris L.), using a standardized theoretically-generated tree dataset. We avoid any bias due to data collection and/or sample design by using this approach. We are then able to demonstrate the conceptual differences in the resulting carbon estimates with regard to the applied country-specific method. In our study we analyze (i) allometric biomass functions, (ii) biomass expansion factors in combination with volume functions and (iii) a combination of both. The results of the analysis show discrepancies in the resulting estimates for total tree carbon and for single tree compartments across the countries analyzed of up to 140. t. carbon/ha. After grouping the country-specific approaches by European Forest regions, the deviation within the results in each region is smaller but still remains. This indicates that part of the observed differences can be attributed to varying growing conditions and tree properties throughout Europe. However, the large remaining error is caused by differences in the conceptual approach, different tree allometry, the sample material used for developing the biomass estimation models and the definition of the tree compartments. These issues are currently not addressed and require consideration for reliable and consistent carbon estimates throughout Europe. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

First Online: 07 June 2016; International audience; AbstractKey messageA daily 1-km Pan-European weather dataset can drive the BIOME-BGC model for the estimation of current and future beech gross primary production (GPP). Annual beech GPP is affected primarily by spring temperature and more irregularly by summer water stress.ContextThe spread of beech forests in Europe enhances the importance of modelling and monitoring their growth in view of ongoing climate changes.AimsThe current paper assesses the capability of a biogeochemical model to simulate beech gross primary production (GPP) using a Pan-European 1-km weather dataset.MethodsThe model BIOME-BGC is applied in four European forest ecosystems having different climatic conditions where the eddy covariance technique is used to measure water and carbon fluxes. The experiment is in three main steps. First, the accuracy of BIOME-BGC GPP simulations is assessed through comparison with flux observations. Second, the influence of two major meteorological drivers (spring minimum temperature and growing season dryness) on observed and simulated inter-annual GPP variations is analysed. Lastly, the impacts of two climate change scenarios on beech GPP are evaluated through statistical analyses of the ground data and model simulations.ResultsThe weather dataset can drive BIOME-BGC to simulate most of the beech GPP evolution in all four test areas. Both observed and simulated inter-annual GPP variations are mainly dependent on minimum temperature around the beginning of the growing season, while spring/summer dryness exerts a secondary role. BIOME-BGC can also reasonably predict the impacts of the examined climate change scenarios.ConclusionThe proposed modelling approach is capable of approximately reproducing spatial and temporal beech GPP variations and impacts of expected climate changes in the examined European sites.

The STANDCARB 2.0 model was used to examine the effects of partial harvest of trees within stands on forest-related carbon (C) stores in a typical Pacific Northwest Pseudotsuga/Tsuga forest. For harvest rotation intervals of 20 to 250 years the effect of completely dispersed (that is, a checkerboard) versus completely aggregated cutting patterns (that is, single blocks) was compared. The simulations indicated that forests with frequent, but partial removal of live trees can store as much C as those with complete tree harvest on less frequent intervals. Stores in forest products generally declined as the fraction of live trees harvested declined and as the interval between harvests increased. Although the proportion of total system stores in forest products increased as the frequency of harvests and proportion of trees removed increased, this did not offset the reduction in forest C stores these treatments caused. Spatial arrangement of harvest influenced tree species composition profoundly; however, the effects of aggregated versus dispersed cutting patterns on C stores were relatively small compared to the other treatments. This study indicates that there are multiple methods to increase C stores in the forest sector including either increasing the time between harvests or reducing the fraction of trees harvested during each harvest.

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year �1 (7 kg C ha �1 year �1 ) but increases were not apparentuntil after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photo- synthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO2 enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO2 manipulation exper- iments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected.