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Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper explores advanced cross-temporal forecasting models and their potential to enhance forecasting accuracy. First, we propose a novel approach that leverages validation errors, rather than traditional in-sample errors, for covariance matrix estimation and forecast reconciliation. Second, we introduce decision-based aggregation levels for forecasting and reconciliation where certain horizons are based on the required decisions in practice. Third, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the models not only on their ability to minimize errors but also on their effectiveness in reducing decision costs, such as penalties in ancillary services. Our results show that statistical-based hierarchies tend to adopt less conservative forecasts and reduce revenue losses. On the other hand, decision-based reconciliation offers a more balanced compromise between accuracy and decision cost, making them attractive for practical use.

Hierarchical time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making in various domains while presenting significant challenges for modelling as they involve multiple levels of aggregation, constraints, and availability of information. This study explores the influence of distinct information utilisation on the accuracy of hierarchical forecasts, proposing and evaluating locals and a range of Global Forecasting Models (GFMs). In contrast to local models, which forecast each series independently, we develop GFMs to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information, improving both forecasting performance and computational efficiency. We employ reconciliation methods to ensure coherency in forecasts and use the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) and Multiple Comparisons with the Best (MCB) tests to assess statistical significance. The findings indicate that GFMs possess significant advantages for hierarchical forecasting, providing more accurate and computationally efficient solutions across different levels in a hierarchy. Two specific GFMs based on LightGBM are introduced, demonstrating superior accuracy and lower model complexity than their counterpart local models and conventional methods such as Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).

Attributing answers to source documents is an approach used to enhance the verifiability of a model's output in retrieval augmented generation (RAG). Prior work has mainly focused on improving and evaluating the attribution quality of large language models (LLMs) in RAG, but this may come at the expense of inducing biases in the attribution of answers. We define and examine two aspects in the evaluation of LLMs in RAG pipelines, namely attribution sensitivity and bias with respect to authorship information. We explicitly inform an LLM about the authors of source documents, instruct it to attribute its answers, and analyze (i) how sensitive the LLM's output is to the author of source documents, and (ii) whether the LLM exhibits a bias towards human-written or AI-generated source documents. We design an experimental setup in which we use counterfactual evaluation to study three LLMs in terms of their attribution sensitivity and bias in RAG pipelines. Our results show that adding authorship information to source documents can significantly change the attribution quality of LLMs by 3% to 18%. Moreover, we show that LLMs can have an attribution bias towards explicit human authorship, which can serve as a competing hypothesis for findings of prior work that shows that LLM-generated content may be preferred over human-written contents. Our findings indicate that metadata of source documents can influence LLMs' trust, and how they attribute their answers. Furthermore, our research highlights attribution bias and sensitivity as a novel aspect of brittleness in LLMs.

Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) diagnostic to be a major global cause of death, necessitating innovative solutions. Addressing the critical importance of early CAD detection and its impact on the mortality rate, we propose the potential of one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNN) to enhance detection accuracy and reduce network complexity. This study goes beyond traditional diagnostic methodologies, leveraging the remarkable ability of 1D-CNN to interpret complex patterns within Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals without depending on feature extraction techniques. We explore the impact of varying sample lengths on model performance and conduct experiments involving layers reduction. The ECG data employed were obtained from the PhysioNet databases, namely the MIMIC III and Fantasia datasets, with respective sampling frequencies of 125 Hz and 250 Hz. The highest accuracy for unseen data obtained with a sample length of 250. These initial findings demonstrate the potential of 1D-CNNs in CAD diagnosis using ECG signals and highlight the sample size's role in achieving high accuracy.

Prediction and optimisation are two widely used techniques that have found many applications in solving real-world problems. While prediction is concerned with estimating the unknown future values of a variable, optimisation is concerned with optimising the decision given all the available data. These methods are used together to solve problems for sequential decision-making where often we need to predict the future values of variables and then use them for determining the optimal decisions. This paradigm is known as forecast and optimise and has numerous applications, e.g., forecast demand for a product and then optimise inventory, forecast energy demand and schedule generations, forecast demand for a service and schedule staff, to name a few. In this extended abstract, we review a digital twin that was developed and applied in wastewater treatment in Urban Utility to improve their operational efficiency. While the current study is tailored to the case study problem, the underlying principles can be used to solve similar problems in other domains., Comment: A bit thin, but an interesting application of ML methods for decision making

An important unexplored aspect in previous work on user satisfaction estimation for Task-Oriented Dialogue (TOD) systems is their evaluation in terms of robustness for the identification of user dissatisfaction: current benchmarks for user satisfaction estimation in TOD systems are highly skewed towards dialogues for which the user is satisfied. The effect of having a more balanced set of satisfaction labels on performance is unknown. However, balancing the data with more dissatisfactory dialogue samples requires further data collection and human annotation, which is costly and time-consuming. In this work, we leverage large language models (LLMs) and unlock their ability to generate satisfaction-aware counterfactual dialogues to augment the set of original dialogues of a test collection. We gather human annotations to ensure the reliability of the generated samples. We evaluate two open-source LLMs as user satisfaction estimators on our augmented collection against state-of-the-art fine-tuned models. Our experiments show that when used as few-shot user satisfaction estimators, open-source LLMs show higher robustness to the increase in the number of dissatisfaction labels in the test collection than the fine-tuned state-of-the-art models. Our results shed light on the need for data augmentation approaches for user satisfaction estimation in TOD systems. We release our aligned counterfactual dialogues, which are curated by human annotation, to facilitate further research on this topic.

In most recent studies, gender bias in document ranking is evaluated with the NFaiRR metric, which measures bias in a ranked list based on an aggregation over the unbiasedness scores of each ranked document. This perspective in measuring the bias of a ranked list has a key limitation: individual documents of a ranked list might be biased while the ranked list as a whole balances the groups' representations. To address this issue, we propose a novel metric called TExFAIR (term exposure-based fairness), which is based on two new extensions to a generic fairness evaluation framework, attention-weighted ranking fairness (AWRF). TExFAIR assesses fairness based on the term-based representation of groups in a ranked list: (i) an explicit definition of associating documents to groups based on probabilistic term-level associations, and (ii) a rank-biased discounting factor (RBDF) for counting non-representative documents towards the measurement of the fairness of a ranked list. We assess TExFAIR on the task of measuring gender bias in passage ranking, and study the relationship between TExFAIR and NFaiRR. Our experiments show that there is no strong correlation between TExFAIR and NFaiRR, which indicates that TExFAIR measures a different dimension of fairness than NFaiRR. With TExFAIR, we extend the AWRF framework to allow for the evaluation of fairness in settings with term-based representations of groups in documents in a ranked list., Comment: Accepted at the 46th European Conference on Information Retrieval (ECIR 2024)

Identifying user intents in information-seeking dialogs is crucial for a system to meet user's information needs. Intent prediction (IP) is challenging and demands sufficient dialogs with human-labeled intents for training. However, manually annotating intents is resource-intensive. While large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be effective in generating synthetic data, there is no study on using LLMs to generate intent-aware information-seeking dialogs. In this paper, we focus on leveraging LLMs for zero-shot generation of large-scale, open-domain, and intent-aware information-seeking dialogs. We propose SOLID, which has novel self-seeding and multi-intent self-instructing schemes. The former improves the generation quality by using the LLM's own knowledge scope to initiate dialog generation; the latter prompts the LLM to generate utterances sequentially, and mitigates the need for manual prompt design by asking the LLM to autonomously adapt its prompt instruction when generating complex multi-intent utterances. Furthermore, we propose SOLID-RL, which is further trained to generate a dialog in one step on the data generated by SOLID. We propose a length-based quality estimation mechanism to assign varying weights to SOLID-generated dialogs based on their quality during the training process of SOLID-RL. We use SOLID and SOLID-RL to generate more than 300k intent-aware dialogs, surpassing the size of existing datasets. Experiments show that IP methods trained on dialogs generated by SOLID and SOLID-RL achieve better IP quality than ones trained on human-generated dialogs., Comment: Accepted at NAACL 2025

Nowadays, the demand for image transmission over wireless networks has surged significantly. To meet the need for swift delivery of high-quality images through time-varying channels with limited bandwidth, the development of efficient transmission strategies and techniques for preserving image quality is of importance. This paper introduces an innovative approach to Joint Source-Channel Coding (JSCC) tailored for wireless image transmission. It capitalizes on the power of Compressed Sensing (CS) to achieve superior compression and resilience to channel noise. In this method, the process begins with the compression of images using a block-based CS technique implemented through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) structure. Subsequently, the images are encoded by directly mapping image blocks to complex-valued channel input symbols. Upon reception, the data is decoded to recover the channel-encoded information, effectively removing the noise introduced during transmission. To finalize the process, a novel CNN-based reconstruction network is employed to restore the original image from the channel-decoded data. The performance of the proposed method is assessed using the CIFAR-10 and Kodak datasets. The results illustrate a substantial improvement over existing JSCC frameworks when assessed in terms of metrics such as Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) and Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) across various channel Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNRs) and channel bandwidth values. These findings underscore the potential of harnessing CNN-based CS for the development of deep JSCC algorithms tailored for wireless image transmission.

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of human experts versus Large Language Models (LLMs) in the retail sector, particularly during standard and promotional sales periods. Utilizing a controlled experimental setup with 123 human forecasters and five LLMs, including ChatGPT4, ChatGPT3.5, Bard, Bing, and Llama2, we evaluated forecasting precision through Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Our analysis centered on the effect of the following factors on forecasters performance: the supporting statistical model (baseline and advanced), whether the product was on promotion, and the nature of external impact. The findings indicate that LLMs do not consistently outperform humans in forecasting accuracy and that advanced statistical forecasting models do not uniformly enhance the performance of either human forecasters or LLMs. Both human and LLM forecasters exhibited increased forecasting errors, particularly during promotional periods and under the influence of positive external impacts. Our findings call for careful consideration when integrating LLMs into practical forecasting processes.

The Knapsack Problem is a classic problem in combinatorial optimisation. Solving these problems may be computationally expensive. Recent years have seen a growing interest in the use of deep learning methods to approximate the solutions to such problems. A core problem is how to enforce or encourage constraint satisfaction in predicted solutions. A promising approach for predicting solutions to constrained optimisation problems is the Lagrangian Dual Framework which builds on the method of Lagrangian Relaxation. In this paper we develop neural network models to approximate Knapsack Problem solutions using the Lagrangian Dual Framework while improving constraint satisfaction. We explore the problems of output interpretation and model selection within this context. Experimental results show strong constraint satisfaction with a minor reduction of optimality as compared to a baseline neural network which does not explicitly model the constraints.

Renewable energy generation is of utmost importance for global decarbonization. Forecasting renewable energies, particularly wind energy, is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty in wind energy generation, which depends on weather conditions. Recent advances in hierarchical forecasting through reconciliation have demonstrated a significant increase in the quality of wind energy forecasts for short-term periods. We leverage the cross-sectional and temporal hierarchical structure of turbines in wind farms and build cross-temporal hierarchies to further investigate how integrated cross-sectional and temporal dimensions can add value to forecast accuracy in wind farms. We found that cross-temporal reconciliation was superior to individual cross-sectional reconciliation at multiple temporal aggregations. Additionally, machine learning based forecasts that were cross-temporally reconciled demonstrated high accuracy at coarser temporal granularities, which may encourage adoption for short-term wind forecasts. Empirically, we provide insights for decision-makers on the best methods for forecasting high-frequency wind data across different forecasting horizons and levels., Comment: 41 pages, 14 figures

Increasing activity and the number of devices online are leading to increasing and more diverse cyber attacks. This continuously evolving attack activity makes signature-based detection methods ineffective. Once malware has infiltrated into a LAN, bypassing an external gateway or entering via an unsecured mobile device, it can potentially infect all nodes in the LAN as well as carry out nefarious activities such as stealing valuable data, leading to financial damage and loss of reputation. Such infiltration could be viewed as an insider attack, increasing the need for LAN monitoring and security. In this paper we aim to detect such inner-LAN activity by studying the variations in Address Resolution Protocol (ARP) calls within the LAN. We find anomalous nodes by modelling inner-LAN traffic using hierarchical forecasting methods. We substantially reduce the false positives ever present in anomaly detection, by using an extreme value theory based method. We use a dataset from a real inner-LAN monitoring project, containing over 10M ARP calls from 362 nodes. Furthermore, the small number of false positives generated using our methods, is a potential solution to the "alert fatigue" commonly reported by security experts.

Retrieval with extremely long queries and documents is a well-known and challenging task in information retrieval and is commonly known as Query-by-Document (QBD) retrieval. Specifically designed Transformer models that can handle long input sequences have not shown high effectiveness in QBD tasks in previous work. We propose a Re-Ranker based on the novel Proportional Relevance Score (RPRS) to compute the relevance score between a query and the top-k candidate documents. Our extensive evaluation shows RPRS obtains significantly better results than the state-of-the-art models on five different datasets. Furthermore, RPRS is highly efficient since all documents can be pre-processed, embedded, and indexed before query time which gives our re-ranker the advantage of having a complexity of O(N) where N is the total number of sentences in the query and candidate documents. Furthermore, our method solves the problem of the low-resource training in QBD retrieval tasks as it does not need large amounts of training data, and has only three parameters with a limited range that can be optimized with a grid search even if a small amount of labeled data is available. Our detailed analysis shows that RPRS benefits from covering the full length of candidate documents and queries., Comment: Accepted at ACM Transactions on Information Systems (ACM TOIS journal)

In this paper we propose a novel approach for combining first-stage lexical retrieval models and Transformer-based re-rankers: we inject the relevance score of the lexical model as a token in the middle of the input of the cross-encoder re-ranker. It was shown in prior work that interpolation between the relevance score of lexical and BERT-based re-rankers may not consistently result in higher effectiveness. Our idea is motivated by the finding that BERT models can capture numeric information. We compare several representations of the BM25 score and inject them as text in the input of four different cross-encoders. We additionally analyze the effect for different query types, and investigate the effectiveness of our method for capturing exact matching relevance. Evaluation on the MSMARCO Passage collection and the TREC DL collections shows that the proposed method significantly improves over all cross-encoder re-rankers as well as the common interpolation methods. We show that the improvement is consistent for all query types. We also find an improvement in exact matching capabilities over both BM25 and the cross-encoders. Our findings indicate that cross-encoder re-rankers can efficiently be improved without additional computational burden and extra steps in the pipeline by explicitly adding the output of the first-stage ranker to the model input, and this effect is robust for different models and query types., Comment: Accepted at ECIR 2023

Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.

In this paper, we examine the concept of the predict and optimise problem with specific reference to the third Technical Challenge of the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society. In this competition, entrants were asked to forecast building energy use and solar generation at six buildings and six solar installations, and then use their forecast to optimize energy cost while scheduling classes and batteries over a month. We examine the possible effect of underforecasting and overforecasting and asymmetric errors on the optimisation cost. We explore the different nature of loss functions for the prediction and optimisation phase and propose to adjust the final forecasts for a better optimisation cost. We report that while there is a positive correlation between these two, more appropriate loss functions can be used to optimise the costs associated with final decisions.

Forecasting and optimisation are two major fields of operations research that are widely used in practice. These methods have contributed to each other growth in several ways. However, the nature of the relationship between these two fields and integrating them have not been explored or understood enough. We advocate the integration of these two fields and explore several problems that require both forecasting and optimisation to deal with the uncertainties. We further investigate some of the methodologies that lie at the intersection of machine learning with prediction and optimisation to address real-world problems. Finally, we provide several research directions for those interested to work in this domain.

Term-based ranking with pre-trained transformer-based language models has recently gained attention as they bring the contextualization power of transformer models into the highly efficient term-based retrieval. In this work, we examine the generalizability of two of these deep contextualized term-based models in the context of query-by-example (QBE) retrieval in which a seed document acts as the query to find relevant documents. In this setting -- where queries are much longer than common keyword queries -- BERT inference at query time is problematic as it involves quadratic complexity. We investigate TILDE and TILDEv2, both of which leverage BERT tokenizer as their query encoder. With this approach, there is no need for BERT inference at query time, and also the query can be of any length. Our extensive evaluation on the four QBE tasks of SciDocs benchmark shows that in a query-by-example retrieval setting TILDE and TILDEv2 are still less effective than a cross-encoder BERT ranker. However, we observe that BM25 could show a competitive ranking quality compared to TILDE and TILDEv2 which is in contrast to the findings about the relative performance of these three models on retrieval for short queries reported in prior work. This result raises the question about the use of contextualized term-based ranking models being beneficial in QBE setting. We follow-up on our findings by studying the score interpolation between the relevance score from TILDE (TILDEv2) and BM25. We conclude that these two contextualized term-based ranking models capture different relevance signals than BM25 and combining the different term-based rankers results in statistically significant improvements in QBE retrieval. Our work sheds light on the challenges of retrieval settings different from the common evaluation benchmarks., Comment: Proceedings of the 2022 ACM SIGIR International Conference on the Theory of Information Retrieval