Search

There has been a growing interest in resilience assessment of supply chains over the last two decades. Due to contextual differences, diverse definitions have been ascribed to resilience. Also, resilience assessment in the supply chain literature is often predicated on a fundamental assumption of infinite availability of raw materials and ignores farm-level production activities. Moreover, resilience assessment has mostly focused on individual firm-level and ignores analysis at an aggregate value chain level. This study focuses on the cocoa value chain in Ghana. Cocoa plays an essential role in the economies of producing countries like Ghana. Hence, the government is a key stakeholder in the cocoa value chains. The consequences of potential disruptions in the cocoa value chain will be dire for producing countries like Ghana that depend on foreign exchange from cocoa exports. International companies that rely on a consistent supply of cocoa beans as raw materials for their final products will also be affected. As such, three strategies that have been espoused in the literature to build the resilience of individual firm-level and aggregate chain level are domestic market liberalisation, on-farm diversification and forward integration. The study seeks to; (i) operationalise the concept of resilience for tropical commodity chains; (ii) identify the precursors of vulnerability in Ghana's cocoa value chain; (iii) evaluate ex-ante the effect of domestic market liberalisation on the aggregate resilience in Ghana's cocoa value chain; (iv) examine ex-ante the impact of chain actors' adaptive strategies on the aggregate resilience of Ghana's cocoa value chain. System dynamics modelling was deployed as the principal analytical technique to achieve objectives 2, 3, and 4. For objective 1, a Citation Network Analysis was used as the primary approach to conduct a systematic literature review. A mix of primary and secondary data was used in this study. Primary data were retrieved via focus group discussions and expert elicitation. Secondary data were collated from published articles and archival data on cocoa production and trade. Results indicate that tropical commodity chains, like most agricultural value chains, will require a farm-centric resilience assessment that considers the socioecological dimension as the primary resilience dimension, and adaptability as a central resilience element. Results also show that full liberalisation of the domestic market will enhance the resilience of the cocoa value chain at an aggregate level when; (i) government maintains a regulatory policy to curtail exploitation of smallholders, and (ii) government enacts policies that support a forward integration strategy. Moreover, the results indicate that on-farm diversification can complement the forward integration effort at the national level to build resilience in Ghana's cocoa value chain when; (i) farmers reinvest proceeds from on-farm diversification into farm maintenance, and (ii) farmers adopt good farm management practices. This study’s findings suggest that a policy direction that helps to build resilience in the cocoa value chain is one that enables free cocoa trading in-country, secures world price transmission to farmers, spearheads in-country processing, and supports on-farm investment.