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In this study, it is aimed to present a model for estimating the natural gas demand in Turkey. Natural gas consumption is considered as the dependent variable, and accordingly, macroeconomic data, climatic conditions, energy and price data, and social and cultural data are used as independent variables. In this study, in which monthly data were evaluated, 78 observations of the variables between January 2015 and June 2021 were included in the scope. MARS method was used in the Madelin analysis process. The model includes 3 basic functions and 2 variables as temperature rate and renewable energy rate. As long as temperature decreases are at reasonable levels, it is seen that the rate of increase in renewable energy has a very important effect on the decrease in natural gas consumption. In order to reduce the share of natural gas, which is 99% dependent on imports, in macroeconomic balances, it is revealed as a result of the analysis that renewable energy investments should be continued without slowing down, since we cannot control the temperature changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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