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In this study, we investigate the changing relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) and eastern African precipitation. The results show that the negative correlation has significantly weakened since the late 1970s. And the Arabian anticyclonic circulation changed concurrently with the AO. In the mid‐high troposphere, the anomalous anticyclone centred over the Arabian Peninsula in 1980–2020 moved northeastward and weakened compared to 1950–1979. Correspondingly, the anomalous downward motion over eastern Africa significantly weakened compared with that in 1950–1979, corresponding to insignificant precipitation. A further analysis suggests that AO‐related Rossby wave trains in the upper troposphere may modulate the Arabian anticyclone. From 1950 to 1979, the wave activity preferred propagating eastward from the Mediterranean to Russia along a high‐latitude path. In contrast, during 1980–2020, it tended to emanate southeastward towards Saudi Arabia, with a notably stronger and more eastward extension than in the earlier period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of northern polar vortex in the stratosphere (SPV) in December‐January on Asia's surface air temperature (SAT) in February has been examined using reanalysis data sets and a barotropic model. An out‐of‐phase interannual linkage between the SPV in December‐January and SAT in February during 1979–2022 has been observed, that is, a strong (weak) SPV corresponds to a cooling (warming) over Asia. Approximately 25% of the SAT over Asia in February can be explained by the SPV in December‐January. This relationship between the SPV and SAT is independent of the Arctic Oscillation. The influence of the SPV on SAT over Asia cannot be solely explained by radiative processes, but is instead related to circulation anomalies in the troposphere. A stronger SPV tends to result in negative geopotential height anomalies with cyclonic circulation over Asia. The SPV‐related geopotential height over Asia is accompanied by a weakened teleconnection pattern between the North Atlantic and Asia, with three centers from the northeastern Atlantic‐eastern Europe‐Asia, and fewer stationary waves propagated from North Atlantic into Asia. These anomalous circulation patterns and anomalous northerly wind over Central Asia in February are beneficial to the colder air transportation from the higher latitudes to Asia, facilitating a surface cooling over Asia. Our results shed light on the interannual linkage between SPV and SAT over Asia, suggesting that the SPV in December‐January could be considered as a new predicator of SAT in February over Asia. Plain Language Summary: Scientists and the public have become increasingly aware of the significant influences of the stratosphere on tropospheric weather and climate. While numerous studies have focused on the crucial roles of stratospheric anomalies in shaping surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Europe and North America, relatively little attention has been given to understanding the potential impacts of stratospheric polar vortex over Arctic (SPV) on SAT over Asia. In this study, we found a robust and out‐of‐phase linkage between the SPV in December‐January and SAT in February over Asia during 1979–2022. A stronger SPV tends to induce an anomalous cyclonic circulation characterized by negative geopotential height, facilitating the transport of colder air from higher latitudes to Asia, thereby contributing a cooling effect on the surface. Our findings suggest that the December‐January SPV can serve as a predictor for SAT in February over Asia. Key Points: A strong (weak) SPV in December‐January tends to result in a cooling (warming) over Asia in February on interannual timescalesThe out‐of‐phase linkage between December‐January SPV and February surface air temperature (SAT) is independent of AO in FebruaryThe influence of SPV on Asia SAT is related to the tropospheric circulation anomalies via dynamic process, rather than radiative process [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow is particularly impacted by climate change and therefore there is an urgent need to understand the temporal and spatial variability of depth of snowfall (HN) trends. However, the analysis of historical HN observations on large‐scale areas is often impeded by lack of continuous long‐term time series availability. This study investigates HN trends using observed time series spanning the period 1920–2020 from 46 sites in the Alps at different elevations. To discern patterns and variations in HN over the years, our analysis focuses also on key parameters such as precipitation (P), mean air temperature (TMEAN), and large‐scale synoptic descriptors, that is, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices. Our findings reveal that in the last 100 years and below 2000 m a.s.l., despite a slight increase in winter precipitation, there was a decrease in HN over the Alps, especially for southern and low‐elevation sites. The South‐West and South‐East regions experienced an average loss of 4.9 and 3.8%/decade, respectively. A smaller relative loss was found in the Northern region (2.3%/decade). The negative HN trends can be mainly explained by an increase of TMEAN by 0.15°C/decade. Most of the decrease in HN occurred mainly between 1980 and 2020, as a result of a more pronounced increase in TMEAN. This is also confirmed by the change of the running correlation between HN and TMEAN, NAO, AO over time, which until 1980 were not correlated at all, while the correlation increased in later years. This suggests that in more recent years favourable combinations of temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pattern have become more crucial for snowfall to occur. On the other hand, no correlation was found with the AMO index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the "warm Arctic, cold East Asia" (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we present a TO definition based on a spatially cohesive and distinct region of tornado activity and present a TO intensity index using tornado characteristics within the TO region. In developing this index, we present a support vector regression-based detrending methodology to remove the secular trends within tornado reporting. The resulting TO definition suggests a decline in TO activity of roughly 1 TO per 4–5 years, with a similar decline in TO intensity. In addition, the relationship between this new quantification of TOs and common North American interannual and monthly climate variability indices is explored, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific North American Oscillation. In general, the links between these teleconnections and TO frequency and intensity were minimal (and sometimes in opposition when comparing TO frequency and intensity), but interesting patterns emerged that may offer an initial pathway to exploring longer-term TO predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2022, the United States (US) experienced an extreme cold event. Its duration was 5 days, and it ranked third in intensity (−9.16 °C) during the period from 1979 to 2022. During the Early Stage (12–16 December), the surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly peaked at 2.98 °C. In the Development Stage (17–21 December), cold air moved towards North America (NA). This event reached its peak during the Outbreak Stage (22–26 December), with a minimum SAT anomaly of −9.16 °C. Concurrently, high pressure occurred in Alaska and the Archipelago region, while low-pressure centers occurred in the US. The U-component of wind (U-wind) was in a negative anomaly in the northern part of NA. The negative anomaly of the V-component of wind (V-wind) moved southward. These atmospheric structural changes facilitated the southward movement of cold air from the Arctic to NA. Furthermore, a positive (negative) U-wind anomaly was observed to obstruct (promote) the southward progression of cold air to NA. A linear regression analysis indicated that a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) correlated with the accumulation of cold air in the Arctic, while a positive Arctic High led to the transport of cold air to NA. In an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, EOF1 (16.3%) was characterized by a warm Arctic and cold northern part of NA pattern, reflecting the cold air from the Arctic region moving southward into NA, while EOF2 (14.4%) depicted a cold Arctic and cold NA pattern, characterizing the outbreak of cold events in the US. In January 2024, the US experienced another extreme cold event. Its maximum intensity was −9.50 °C, and its duration was 8 days. The course of the two cold events was very similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fram Strait is one of the main gateways for fresh water leaving the Arctic Ocean toward the deep‐water formation regions of the North Atlantic. Monitoring transport through Fram Strait is important to quantify the impact of Arctic amplification on the hydrography in lower latitudes. We update existing time series from the moorings in the western Fram Strait and investigate the monthly and interannual variability of the liquid freshwater transport (FWT, reference salinity 34.9), volume transport and freshwater content between 2003 and 2020. We examine composites and correlations of sea‐level pressure (SLP) reanalysis, and remote‐sensing dynamic‐ocean topography (DOT) in the Arctic Ocean. We identify two remote forcing mechanisms of FWT: (a) North Pole convergence freshens the region north of Fram Strait 13–24 months before high FWT events. (b) Beaufort Gyre weakening allows spreading of fresh water to the margins of the Arctic Basin zero to 9 months before high FWT events. In addition a third mechanism occurs locally, (b) Fram Strait northerly winds confine freshwater to the Greenland shelf and drive stronger southward FWT. Additionally, we find a decreasing trend in the total volume transport, concurrent with weakening northerly winds and reducing north‐south DOT gradient across the strait. We also examined correlations between the Fram Strait time series and the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Ocean Oscillation. Both are found to correlate positively with the total volume transport, while the Arctic Oscillation correlates negatively with FWT with 1‐year lag. Plain Language Summary: The East Greenland Current brings fresh water from the central Arctic Ocean to lower latitudes. The exported fresh water affects stratification, and can contribute to variations of the global meridional overturning circulation. In Fram Strait, between Greenland and Svalbard, the properties of this current have been systematically monitored using moored instruments. We present updated time series of freshwater transport from the moorings in the Fram Strait, and analyze their variability between 2003 and 2020. We identify three mechanisms that contribute to high freshwater transport in the Strait. (a) 13–24 months before, clockwise wind anomalies in the Eurasian Arctic drive converging current anomalies and freshen the area preconditioning fresh outflow events. (b) 0–9 months before, anticlockwise wind anomalies in the Canadian Arctic drive diverging current anomalies directing fresh water to the periphery and Fram Strait. (c) Northerly winds over the strait drive southward transport instantly. We find additionally that total volume transport in the Fram Strait decreases in relation to weakening northerlies that could be a result of a warming Greenland. Key Points: Fram Strait local northerly winds force instant southward volume and freshwater transportArctic Ocean large‐scale wind variability forces two distinguished lagged responses of freshwater content and transport in Fram StraitBetween 2004 and 2019 freshwater transport shows no trend but total volume transport of the East Greenland Current decreases by ∼0.1 SV/year [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time‐series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region's marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper trophic‐level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), an ice‐obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish of the ice‐associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multi‐state capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models, and perturbation analysis, we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980 to 2019 for the individually marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from <20 to >200 breeding pairs from 1975 to 1990 in response to increased availability of nesting cavities, before experiencing intermittent declines to <50 pairs in 2021. Immigration and apparent survival were the primary demographic parameters affecting population growth with sea ice extent in late summer and fall the primary environmental driver. The initial growth occurred during a period of primarily negative winter Arctic Oscillations (WAO) and extensive summer sea ice. The decline began when an extremely positive WAO in 1989/1990 initiated changes in atmospheric and oceanographic circulation causing major reductions in summer sea ice throughout the region. The three‐decade decline in the population saw plateaus or minor growth with increasing frequency of negative WAOs and increasing declines following two previously identified "tipping points" in sea ice loss. Breeding success at the study colony declined with decreased availability of Arctic cod due to sea ice loss and increasing sea surface temperature and is presumed to have occurred at the source colonies for immigrants where similar oceanographic changes were occurring. Quasi‐extinction of the colony (reduction to <25 pairs) is predicted within the next two decades. The sensitivity of Mandt's black guillemot to multi‐decadal changes in the Arctic's cryopelagic ecosystem makes it an excellent sentinel species for the region with its recent collapse having dire implications for the Arctic Ocean's constituent species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) in northern China is home to one of the most prominent loess records in the world, reflecting past eolian dust activity in East Asia. However, their interpretation is hampered by ambiguity in the origin of loess‐forming dust and an incomplete understanding of the circulation forcing dust accumulation. In this study, we used a novel modeling approach combining a dust emission model FLEXDUST with simulated back trajectories from FLEXPART to trace the dust back to where it was emitted. Over 21 years (1999–2019), we modeled back trajectories for fine (∼2 μm) and super‐coarse (∼20 μm) dust particles at six CLP sites during the peak dust storm season from March to May. FLEXPART source‐receptor relationships are combined with the dust emission inventory from FLEXDUST to create site‐dependent high‐resolution maps of the source contribution of deposited dust. The nearby dust emission areas were found to be the main source of dust to the CLP. Dust deposition across the CLP was found to predominantly occur via wet removal, with also some super‐coarse dust from distant emission regions being wet deposited following high‐level tropospheric transport. The high topography located on the downwind side of the emission area plays an essential role in forcing the emitted super‐coarse dust upward. On an interannual scale, the phase of the Arctic Oscillation in the preceding winter was found to have a strong association with the spring deposition rate on the CLP, while the strength of the East Asian Winter Monsoon was less influential. Plain Language Summary: The dust deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) in northern China provide an extensive record of changes in past dust activity in East Asia. In this work, we combine an atmosphere transport model with a dust emission model to trace the dust backward to where it was emitted. Choosing six locations at the CLP where we traced the dust back to emissions over a 21‐year period during the most active dust months from March until May, for which we investigated how different parts of the CLP were influenced by the different dust emission areas, transport mechanisms, and wind patterns. We find that dust is mainly brought from the emission areas located near the CLP, and that dust from far‐away emission areas in Central Asia has the potential to reach the CLP in smaller amounts. Furthermore, our results show that wet removal of dust by precipitation is important for dust deposition on the CLP, a mechanism that is often overlooked when explaining variations in past dust activity. On a year‐to‐year basis the dust deposition rate over the CLP was found to be connected to the high‐latitude northern hemisphere's climate oscillation (Arctic Oscillation) rather than the regional East Asian winter monsoon. Key Points: The source contribution of emitted dust aerosols to the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is mapped using backward trajectory modelingDistant dust emission regions in Central Asia have a non‐negligible impact on the CLP, with wet deposited dust showing a clearer connectionStrong dust deposition years over the CLP are associated with the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The co-occurrence of multiple hazards can either exacerbate or mitigate risks. The interrelationships between multiple hazards greatly depend on the spatiotemporal scale and can be difficult to detect from large to local scales. In this paper, we identified coastal regions worldwide where the leading tropical (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and polar (Arctic Oscillation, AO; Southern Annular Mode, SAM) modes of climate variability simultaneously modify the seasonal conditions of multiple hazards, including the near-surface wind speed and swell and wind-sea wave powers. We classified the results at the national and municipal levels, with a focus on multiple hazards simultaneously occurring in space and time. The results revealed that the ENSO modulates multiple hazards, affecting approximately 40% of coastal countries, while the polar annular modes affect approximately 30% of coastal countries. The ENSO induced a greater diversity of multiple hazards, with Asian countries (e.g., Indonesia experienced increases of + 2% in wind and + 7% in swell) and countries in the Americas (e.g., Peru exhibited increases of + 1.5% in wind and + 6% in wind-sea) the most notably affected. The SAM imposed a greater influence on swells in the eastern countries of ocean basins (+ 2.5% in Chile) than in other countries, while the influence of the AO was greater in Norway and the UK (+ 12% for wind-sea and 8% for swell). Low-lying islands exhibited notable variations in pairwise hazards between phases and seasons. Our results could facilitate the interpretation of multihazard interactions and pave the way for a wide range of potential implementations of different coastal industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific basin, is an important low-frequency climate phenomenon. Leveraging data spanning from 1871 to 2010, we employed machine learning models to predict the PDO based on variations in several climatic indices: the Niño3.4, North Pacific index (NPI), sea surface height (SSH), and thermocline depth over the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) region (SSH_KOE and Ther_KOE), as well as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). A comparative analysis of the temporal and spatial performance of six machine learning models was conducted, revealing that the Gated Recurrent Unit model demonstrated superior predictive capabilities compared to its counterparts, through the temporal and spatial analysis. To better understand the inner workings of the machine learning models, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was adopted to present the drivers behind the model's predictions and dynamics for modeling the PDO. Our findings indicated that the Niño3.4, North Pacific index, and SSH_KOE were the three most pivotal features in predicting the PDO. Furthermore, our analysis also revealed that the Niño3.4, AMO, and Ther_KOE indices were positively associated with the PDO, whereas the NPI, SSH_KOE, and AO indices exhibited negative correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic, Antarctica and the Tibetan Plateau in the high mountains of Asia are called the Earth's three poles and have exhibited the most intense warming worldwide in recent decades. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and South Asia High (SAH) are the most influential and stable large-scale systems affecting the three poles. The global carbon neutrality targets (1.5 °C/2°C), which promote sustainable development, and the future evolution of these large-scale systems will have implications for global climate projections at the three poles. In this study, our evaluation revealed the satisfactory performance of the multi-initial-value ensemble mean of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in capturing the observed AO, AAO and SAH patterns. Based on the simulations derived from the CESM Low Warming Experiment, the warming in the three poles will be significantly greater than the global mean when the global warming reaches 1.5 °C/2°C. Under the 1.5 °C global warming level (GWL), a stronger center of action over the North Atlantic will lead to an enhanced influence of the AO on the surface air temperature (SAT) in northern Europe. However, all of the centers of action for the AO and its remote influence on the SAT in the Northern Hemisphere will be weaker when global warming reaches 2 °C. For the AAO, the pair of centers of action in the southern pole and Southern Ocean will weaken under the 1.5 °C scenario, leading to a stronger influence of the AAO on the SAT in the Antarctic Peninsula and a weaker effect in East Antarctica and its surrounding seas. In contrast, the eastward movement of the centers of action over the Southern Ocean under the 2 °C scenario will weaken the teleconnection between the AAO and summer SAT across the Antarctic. During the 21st century, over the third pole, the SAH will move southeastward with significantly increased interannual variability. The change in the SAH at the 1.5 °C GWL will contribute to a warmer summer and less precipitation in Northeast China. Under the 2 °C scenario, the greater movement and strengthening of the SAH will lead to more precipitation and cooler summers in the Yangtze River. Our results suggest that the AO/AAO/SAH are related to the regional climate in a carbon-neutral world. This study has important implications for decadal climate predictions in a future 1.5 °C/2°C warmer world, offering insights into the associated climate risks across the three poles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Gobi Desert (GD) is one of the major global dust sources, where dust events are frequent. Based on satellite observations, we compiled extreme dust events (EDEs) over the GD during spring since 2000. Among all 43 extreme events, EDEs on 4–10 April 2001 (EDE 2001) and 14–19 March 2021 (EDE 2021) are the most pronounced, due to the longest duration and the most intense strength, while the generation mechanisms underlying these two EDEs are different. EDE 2001 is associated with extreme westerlies, which are caused by an abnormal low-pressure due to the extreme Eurasian teleconnection (EU). However, EDE 2021 is attributable to extreme droughts, which are caused by an abnormal high-pressure due to the extreme Arctic Oscillation (AO) and West Pacific teleconnection (WP). Moreover, the trends in EU, AO, and WP combined with the analysis of all EDEs indicate a shift in the dominant factor of EDEs over the GD from extreme winds to extreme droughts. Therefore, regional droughts should be given more importance in future EDE forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many previous studies have examined the influence of Arctic sea ice on the weather/climate of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the precursor signals of Arctic sea ice regarding East Asian winter low temperatures, which are important for climate prediction, have received little attention. This study identified an out‐of‐phase relationship between the autumn sea ice area of the Kara Sea (SICK) and subsequent winter minimum temperature in Northeast China (NEC) during 1979–2019, that is, diminished SICK facilitates cooling anomalies at NEC. Further results showed that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) acts as a bridge in the linkage between the autumn SICK and minimum temperature in NEC. Diminished autumn SICK leads to a weakened polar vortex in both the troposphere and the stratosphere in the subsequent winter through vertical propagation of planetary waves, contributing to a negative phase of the AO. Accordingly, the SICK is followed by anomalous Rossby wave train that originates from Mediterranean Sea and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia. Thus, the SICK has substantially influences on the Mongolia cyclone and minimum temperature in NEC by modulation of the AO. Moreover, the shrinking SICK could lead to the upper‐level decelerated westerly anomalies at East Asia through altering the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and induce negative minimum temperature anomalies at NEC. The results of this study have importance regarding the prediction of low temperature anomalies over NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre plays a critical role in climate and marine ecosystems. This study investigates the response of the liquid freshwater in the Beaufort Gyre to various wind perturbations using numerical simulations. A new diagnostic called "freshwater renewal" is introduced, which quantifies the amount of freshwater that has entered the Beaufort Gyre since a specific point in time. The findings reveal that the process of freshwater renewal is persistently efficient in the Beaufort Gyre region, occurring irrespective of the gyre's status. The spatial distribution of freshwater renewal varies, influenced by factors such as wind forcing and gyre circulation patterns. Cyclonic wind perturbation associated with a negative Beaufort high sea level pressure anomaly triggers freshwater release from the Beaufort Gyre, with freshwater export and renewal dependent on wind-perturbation locations and time scales. While some released Beaufort Gyre freshwater exits the Arctic Ocean through the Davis and Fram Straits, a considerable portion could remain within the Arctic Ocean for many years under specific conditions. Wind perturbation associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation enhances the Arctic export of Beaufort Gyre freshwater, mainly through the Fram Strait. The Arctic export of total freshwater and the Arctic export of the portion originating from the Beaufort Gyre have different time scales and magnitudes. Hence, it is essential to collectively examine different freshwater components in order to assess the role of Arctic export in the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble forecasts have been shown to better predict observed Atlantic climate variability than that of their own ensemble members. This phenomenon—termed the signal‐to‐noise paradox—is found to be widespread across models, timescales, and climate variables, and has wide implications. The signal‐to‐noise paradox can be interpreted as forecasts underestimating the amplitude of predictable signals on seasonal‐to‐decadal timescales. The cause of this remains unknown. Here, we examine sea level pressure variability from a very large multi‐model ensemble of uninitialized atmosphere‐only simulations, focusing on boreal winter. To assess signal‐to‐noise errors, the ratio of predictable components (RPC) is examined globally, as well as for regional climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, and an Arctic index. Our analyses reveal significant correlations between the multi‐model ensemble‐mean and observations over large portions of the globe, particularly the tropics, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. However, RPC values greater than one are apparent over many extratropical regions and in all four climate indices. Higher‐resolution models produce greater observation‐model correlations and greater RPC values than lower‐resolution models in all four climate indices. We find that signal‐to‐noise errors emerge more clearly at higher resolution, but the amplitudes of predictable signals do not increase with resolution, at least across the range of resolutions considered here. Our results suggest that free‐running atmospheric models underestimate predictable signals in the absence of sea surface temperature biases, implying that signal‐to‐noise errors originate in the atmosphere or in ocean–atmosphere coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the authors quantitatively investigated the joint impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) over Indo‐Myanmar in boreal winter from 1981 to 2018, and found that there is a significant in‐phase variation between them. When the warm ENSO co‐occurs with the positive AO, the NPP in more than 80% of the grids in the study region significantly increases by approximately 24 gC m−2. For the cold ENSO plus the negative AO, the regionally averaged NPP anomalies are approximately −10 gC m−2, and the local minimum is as low as −60 gC m−2. The combination of AO and ENSO can explain approximately 36% of the total variance of NPP in Indo‐Myanmar. The AO/ENSO linkages to the NPP are very likely due to regional precipitation anomalies through atmospheric circulation. In association with the positive (negative) AO, the Rossby wave, propagating eastward along the subtropical jet stream, brings an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over Indo‐Myanmar. This enhances (weakens) Indo‐Myanmar Trough, and resulting in more (less) regional precipitation. During the warm (cold) ENSO, through the Gill‐type response, an anomalous high (low)‐pressure appears in the lower and middle troposphere over Philippine‐South China Sea. The Walker circulation is also weaker (stronger) than normal. These are conducive to anomalous southerly (northerly) winds in Indochina. As a result, in the warm ENSO plus positive AO winters, the mean precipitation anomaly in Indo‐Myanmar increased by 27% as averaged for five data sets. In contrast, when the cold ENSO co‐occurs with negative AO, the precipitation is significantly reduced where the largest anomaly exceeds 100 mm in the ERA5. The precipitation changes are consistent with the local NPP anomalies, whereas the temperature does not seem to be a dominant limiting factor. Plain Language Summary: Vegetation is closely dependent on regional climatic conditions such as temperature and precipitation, whereas these meteorological elements are sensitive to large‐scale climate factors. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the vegetation drivers and underlying physical mechanisms. In this research, we focused on investigating the joint impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) over Indo‐Myanmar in boreal winter from 1981 to 2018, the results show that the combination of AO and ENSO can explain approximately 36% of the total variance in regional NPP. The AO/ENSO linkages to the NPP are very likely due to regional precipitation anomalies through atmospheric circulation. In association with the positive (negative) AO, an eastward Rossby wave propagating along the subtropical jet stream brings an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over Indo‐Myanmar. During the warm (cold) ENSO, a southerly (northerly) wind anomaly prevails over Indochina via the Gill‐type response and weaker (stronger) Walker circulation than normal. As a result, when the warm (cold) ENSO co‐occurs with the positive (negative) AO winters, Indo‐Myanmar could experience more (less) precipitation than normal, which can lead to more NPP here. Key Points: There is a significant and robust in‐phase variation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and net primary productivity (NPP) over Indo‐Myanmar in boreal winterThe combination of AO and ENSO can explain 36% of the total variance in NPPPrecipitation plays a critical bridge in teleconnection between AO/ENSO and local NPP and explains nearly 40% of the total variance in NPP [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the JRA-55 reanalysis data, the persistent downward impacts of the weak stratospheric polar vortex (WPV) events are examined. The WPV events with persistent tropospheric impacts are selected and classified into two groups according to whether there is a phase switch of the surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) around the onset day of the cases. The results suggested a one-month longer duration of the tropospheric impacts for the cases with preexisting negative AO anomalies in the troposphere (i.e., the −AO-pre-WPV events), than the cases with a phase switch of the surface AO from positive to negative (i.e., the +AO-pre-WPV events). The connections between the precursory surface AO anomalies and the following downward propagation are found to be closely related to the different events background state of the two types of events. A strong signal of the east quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at 30 hPa is observed during the −AO-pre-WPV events, which induces an anomalous poleward propagation of the planetary waves and convergence anomalies of the wave flux in the lower stratosphere. This slow-changing QBO signal exerts continuous wave forcing in the polar region of the lower stratosphere during the −AO-pre-WPV events and delays the recovery of the polar vortex, leading to the long-persistent tropospheric impacts. Moreover, after the background state of each independent case is removed, the preexisting negative surface AO for the −AO-pre-WPV events also disappears. However, the downward propagation during the +AO-pre-WPV events has not been affected with the events background removed, probably because the QBO signal is quite weak. The results reveal the possible role of the precursory surface AO and the background QBO on the downward propagation of the WPV events, which may offer useful information for the subseasonal prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have shown that the springtime Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a strong influence on the subsequent Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Nevertheless, not every AO is followed by IOD and ENSO. This study divides the spring AO into three types: followed by both IOD and ENSO (AO-Both), followed by ENSO only (AO-ENSO), and followed by IOD only (AO-IOD). In the AO-Both type, the Pacific component of the AO, which is characterized by a dipole pattern, induces sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific that extend southward to the tropical Pacific via a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. The generated tropical SST anomalies influence subsequent ENSO via tropical air-sea interaction and impact autumn IOD via modulation of the tropical Walker circulation. In the AO-ENSO type, the Pacific component of the AO is featured by a mono-pole anomaly pattern with a center over the mid-latitude northeast Pacific. The northeast Pacific atmospheric anomalies propagate southward and lead to surface zonal wind anomalies in the tropical central Pacific via the WES feedback that influence subsequent ENSO via tropical air-sea interaction. In the AO-IOD type, the Pacific component of the AO is weak. Spring AO-related atmospheric heating anomalies over the North Atlantic excite a wave train extending from the North Atlantic to the western Pacific. The associated low-level wind anomalies induce SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent, which play a crucial role in influencing subsequent IOD. This study suggests that the spatial pattern of the AO plays a critical role in determining its impact on tropical climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals a strong relationship between the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) in boreal spring and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in following autumn. A positive spring PMM tends to be followed by a positive IOD and vice versa. The mechanism for the influence of the PMM on the IOD is then investigated. Positive spring PMM-related cyclonic and SST warming anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific propagate southward to the equatorial central Pacific in the following summer via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. SST warming and enhanced atmospheric heating in summer in the equatorial central Pacific induce an anomalous Walker circulation with ascending anomalies over the tropical central Pacific and descending anomalies over the Maritime Continent. The descending anomalies over the Maritime Continent result in southeasterly wind anomalies off the west coast of Sumatra, which lead to cold SST anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean via modulating surface heat flux and upwelling of cold water. The associated increase in zonal SST gradient in the tropical Indian Ocean leads to low-level easterly wind anomalies and contributes to warm SST anomalies in the western tropical Indian Ocean via oceanic dynamic process. The warm and cold SST anomalies in the tropical western and southeastern Indian Ocean further develop to an IOD event in the following autumn via a positive air-sea interaction. The above process for the PMM influence on IOD can be simulated in the long historical simulations of coupled climate models. This study suggests that the spring PMM is a potential precursor for the occurrence of IOD event in the following autumn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the variability of coastal extreme sea levels globally by utilizing nearly three decades of along-track, multi-mission satellite altimetry data. An altimetry-based global coastal database of the non-tidal residual sea level component has been produced. The climate variability of extremes is modeled through a parametric, non-stationary statistical model. This model captures intra-annual, inter-annual and long-term variations in non-tidal residual return levels. Comparisons with tide gauge data demonstrate the ability of altimetry data to capture the variability of coastal extreme sea levels. Our findings reveal a greater complexity in the monthly variability patterns of non-tidal residual extremes in tropical latitudes, often exhibiting multiple storm periods, contrasting with coasts in extratropical latitudes, which are mostly controlled by a winter–summer pattern. This study also highlights the significant influence of established climate circulation patterns on sea level extremes. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation pattern leads to increases of over 25% in non-tidal residual return levels in Northwestern Europe with respect to a neutral phase. Furthermore, return levels in the western coast of Central America could be 50% higher during El Niño compared to La Niña. Our results show a robust increasing trend in non-tidal residual return levels along most global coastlines. A comparative analysis shows that variations during the 1995–2020 period were primarily driven by intra-annual variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, a connection between the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was found in observations. The boreal winter seasonal mean amplitude of the daily MJO is anticorrelated with the QBO winds measured at 50 hPa. We investigate whether this relationship is captured in reforecasts of past winters in a seasonal prediction system, and find the ensemble mean response does not show this association, with essentially zero correlation. By repeated subsampling of the ensemble reforecast data, we also show that the observed correlation is very unlikely to arise merely as the result of sampling in the relatively short observational record. Instead, we conclude that the reforecasts genuinely cannot capture the observed QBO–MJO seasonal relationship. We also consider the boreal winter seasonal mean response of tropical convection to the QBO and its influence on the subtropics. We find that the reforecasts are able to capture the stationary pattern found in the observed outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) over the tropical west Pacific in response to the QBO. We also find that the associated upper tropospheric divergence in observations interacts with the west Pacific subtropical jet to produce atmospheric Rossby wave patterns that propagate across the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. These extratropical waves have the potential to interfere with the climatological waves in midlatitudes, modifying the strength of the midlatitude annular mode through interactions with the extratropical stratosphere. However, the observed influence on wavenumber 1 is not captured by the reforecasts, suggesting a weak extratropical influence and a partial explanation for the weaker‐than‐observed QBO teleconnection to the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the ERA‐5 reanalysis datasets, NCEP/NCAR sea ice concentration (SIC) and observed winter surface wind speed (WSWS) in northwest China during 1979–2020, this study examined the regime shift of the leading mode of observed WSWS in northwest China and investigated its possible link with the winter Barents–Kara Sea (BKS) SIC. The leading mode of observed WSWS in northwest China showed negative anomalies in southern and northeastern Xinjiang, Gansu, western and northern Shaanxi Provinces, and positive anomalies in northwestern and middle Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia Provinces. The signs of WSWS in the leading mode is generally opposite to their trends during 1979–2020. Leading principal component (PC1) of observed WSWS in northwest China underwent an obvious decreasing regime shift in 2003/04, as well as the winter BKS SIC. There are significant correlations between PC1 and BKS SIC on both interdecadal and interannual timescales. Decadal decrease of BKS SIC is accompanied with a positive phase of Scandinavia pattern (SP) with positive anomalies of 500‐hPa geopotential height over subtropical North Atlantic, Arctic‐Ural region and southern Asia, and negative anomalies over northern North Atlantic‐West Europe and Siberia regions. BKS SIC and SP significantly influenced the Northern China Wind Index (NCWI) at 200 hPa on interdecadal timescale, which was related to the PC1 on both interdecadal and interannual timescales after removing the signal of Arctic Oscillation. Meridional configuration of Siberian cyclonic anomaly and southern Asian anticyclonic anomaly associated with the winter BKS SIC could enhance the intensity of NCWI, which favoured the increase of observed WSWS in northwest China and thereby may contribute to the regime shift in 2003/04 of the leading mode. However, there were still some stations showing decreasing regime shift, which mainly located at the region of steeping terrain. These decreasing changes of WSWS may be related to circumfluence effect of terrain, urbanization and local microclimate, and these reasons still need further detailed study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous offshore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline, leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season—a signal then amplified by the ice–albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE; a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in global climate model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counterintuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large, or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More important, periods with weak correlation between winter FSIAE and the following Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes generally dominate over late-winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the winter FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline at the onset of the melt season is a ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traveling quasi-5-day oscillations (Q5DOs) with different wavenumbers are independently observed in the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere during many recent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, but their common activities during SSWs are still unclear. Based on the geopotential height data measured by the Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) from August 2004 to March 2021, we statistically investigate the characteristics of the Q5DOs during eight Arctic major SSW events. The amplitudes of the Q5DOs are obtained by a new fitting method, which inhibits the effect of rapid changes in stationary planetary waves during SSWs. Our results reveal a robust feature that Q5DOs were enhanced during all interested SSW events. Our analysis indicates that eastward and westward propagating Q5DOs can be simultaneously enhanced during SSWs. Additionally, the wavenumbers of the enhanced Q5DOs are found to be associated with the geometry of polar vortices. Extremely strong westward Q5DOs with wavenumber 2 are consistently observed during split-type major SSWs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to reconstruct the last century's climatic oscillations in the Arctic region around the Fram Strait using high-resolution analysis of foraminiferal assemblages as proxies for surface and deep-water mass properties. In this area, warm Atlantic water masses are advected to the Arctic Ocean through the West Spitsbergen Current, representing the northernmost tip of the Global Thermohaline Circulation. The interaction between the cold Arctic and the warm Atlantic water masses significantly influences the entire foraminiferal community. Planktic species such as Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Turborotalita quinqueloba are respectively used as indicators of cold Arctic water and warm Atlantic water masses. Among the main benthic species, Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi, Epistominella exigua, and Oridorsalis tener stand out, serving as proxies for the bottom water mass current velocity and paleoproductivity. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction obtained with the foraminiferal assemblages, together with data from satellite monitoring of the sea ice extent and the long-term record of the annual temperature of the West Spitsbergen Current measured over the last 50 years, support the evidence of a progressively rising heat influx into the Arctic Ocean due to an increasing Atlantic water inflow, forcing the consequent decay of the sea ice extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar sea surface height observation by radar altimeters requires missions with high-latitude orbit and specific processing to observe the sea-ice-covered region within fractures in the ice. Here, we combine sea surface height estimates from different radar satellites over the ice-free and ice-covered polar oceans to create cross-calibrated along-tracks and gridded products over the Arctic Ocean (2011–2021) and the Southern Ocean (2013–2021). The sea surface height from our regional polar products is in great agreement with tide gauges and bottom pressure recorders at monthly timescales in seasonally to year-round ice-covered regions. Thanks to the use of several missions and the mapping strategy, our multi-mission products have a greater resolution than mono-mission products. Part of the sea level variability of the Arctic Ocean product is related to the Arctic Oscillation atmospheric circulation. At long term, the Arctic altimetry sea level is coherent with in-situ steric height evolution in the Beaufort gyre, and negative sea level trends over the 10-year period are observed in the East Siberian slope region, which may be related to the local freshwater decrease observed by other studies. Our regional polar sea level products are limited by current understanding of the sea-ice lead measurements, and homogenization of these polar products with global sea level products needs to be tackled.

Abstract The Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time‐series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region's marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper trophic‐level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), an ice‐obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish of the ice‐associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multi‐state capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models, and perturbation analysis, we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980 to 2019 for the individually marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from 200 breeding pairs from 1975 to 1990 in response to increased availability of nesting cavities, before experiencing intermittent declines to

In this study, cold waves (CW) were set and classified in different severity levels by applying standardized index (Z score) of minimum temperature (MT) in the period of 1951–2019, and also, the frequency of monthly, annual and decadal occurrence of CW was calculated and analyzed. The results showed that there was a decreasing linear trend in distribution of temporal changes of CW. The probability for annual occurrence of CW (which annually reaches 42 times or less) was 99%, and the probability of its occurrence for more than 42 waves was 1%. The trend analysis of time series component represented a significant reduction in the cold waves frequency (CWF) in the study area. Also the results of the trend analysis for the severity levels of occurrence of different cold waves showed that despite the significant reduction in the CWF, none of the classes had a significant trend except the reducing trend of annual cold waves frequency (ACWF). Investigating the decadal condition of CWF displays an increased incidence of CW from 70 s and stepwise reduction in the CWF from the 1981 to 2010, and consequently, the general trend of decadal occurrence of CW was decreasing. The twenty-first-century prediction of the CWF shows the CWF will decrease significantly compared to the long-term average of the twentieth century. The results obtained from the correlation and Morlet wavelet analysis (MWA) between the levels of CW severities with Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnections indicated that the correlation between CWF is in-phase, positive and incremental. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the interannual variability of winter mean surface air temperature (SAT) and subseasonal SAT reversal in North China, which have profound impacts on national life and economic activities. The analysis explores the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of these variations and their relationship with the Eurasian Zonal Circulation (EZ). The findings reveal distinct interdecadal changes in North China's winter mean SAT, along with a general subseasonal reversal of cold and warm conditions. In comparison to the North Atlantic oscillation/Arctic Oscillation, the EZ has a more significant influence on the interannual variability of winter and subseasonal reversals. Strong EZ years are associated with the weakening of the Siberian High and the Ural Blocking High, causing the East Asian Trough to move eastward, which leads to the retention of cold air from the north and increased SAT in North China. Conversely, weak EZ years exhibit opposite circulation patterns. The winter mean EZ is influenced by preceding autumn Arctic sea ice concentrations (SIC). Reduced autumn SIC results in decreased heat flux and reduced eddy energy, leading to substantial attenuation of the winter storm track across Scandinavia and Western Asia. This attenuation, mediated through the interaction between eddies and mean flow, triggers a slowdown of Eurasian zonal circulation and intensification of the Siberian High. These conditions favor a positive phase of the winter Scandinavia pattern, facilitating the transport of cold Arctic air into North China. Likewise, subseasonal reversals in SIC influence corresponding alterations in the EZ. Plain Language Summary: The winter surface air temperatures (SAT) in North China exhibit notable interdecadal variations and distinct intra‐seasonal changes. These intra‐seasonal variations lead to subseasonal reversals, where early winter may be unusually warm, followed by later winter turning unusually cold, or vice versa. These subseasonal SAT fluctuations are influenced by atmospheric circulation anomalies. In this study, we investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of the mean winter SAT and subseasonal SAT reversals in North China, focusing on their interannual variability. We emphasize the significant impact of anomalous zonal circulation over the middle and high latitudes in Eurasia and explore the relative influence of the Arctic as a boundary forcing factor in circulation anomalies. Key Points: The winter surface air temperature (SAT) and subseasonal SAT reversal in North China have noteworthy interannual variationsThe Eurasian Zonal Circulation (EZ) strongly influences winter SAT and subseasonal reversal variabilityThe physical mechanisms linking autumn Arctic sea ice concentrations to EZ is examined [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow is the most important component of the Arctic climatic and hydrological system and is directly vulnerable to climate change. In recent decades, observations have indicated significant decreases in the Arctic snow cover and snowfall rate, whereas water discharge from circumpolar Arctic river basins into the Arctic Ocean has increased. To evaluate the contribution, not well quantified, of snow to the river discharge increase, we conducted sensitivity simulations with surface air temperature and precipitation as climatic treatment variables, combining a land surface model and a distributed discharge model. Variables were treated assuming higher climate variations in the Arctic cold season in 1979–2018. The surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface model were set as inflows in the discharge model to estimate river discharge. Snowmelt mostly converted to surface runoff, accounting for 73.6% of the anomalous surface runoff increase and inducing the simulated peak discharge in spring and early summer. This relationship was enhanced by the winter precipitation increase. Snow loss induced by higher air temperature contributed to the decrease in the peak and annual discharges, but caused the peak discharge to occur earlier. Additionally, warmer temperature increased the proportion of rainfall in the partitioning of precipitation, causing more subsurface runoff, particularly in autumn and winter. These results provide a first separate evaluation of factors influencing Arctic water discharge, including seasonal hydrographs, and illustrate the influence of climate warming-induced snowfall and rainfall variations on the circumpolar Arctic river discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, winter Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) has experienced a most prominent decline over Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). However, what regulates the time scale and spatial structure of the SIC variability over the Eurasian Arctic is unclear. Here, we find that the SIC variability over the Eurasian Arctic exhibits two major modes: decadal dipole mode with antiphase variation between the BKS and East Greenland (EG), and interannual monopole mode with in-phase variation between the BKS and EG. This decadal mode mainly results from interdecadal changes in ocean heat transports (OHTs) through Barents Sea Opening (BSO) and EG, lagging the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation by 7–16 years. The positive SIC dipole mode with a decrease over the BKS and an increase over the EG is also tied to the negative Arctic Oscillation comprised of Ural blocking and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, the SIC loss of the interannual monopole mode mainly stems from the positive Arctic dipole comprised of Ural blocking and positive NAO through interannual changes in the BSO OHT and atmospheric moisture or heat transport. We further highlight that interannual atmospheric transports and BSO OHT associated with the Arctic dipole contribute to ~66% and ~34% of the interannual variability of the Eurasian Arctic SIC during 1960-2017, respectively. On decadal timescales, the relative contributions of atmospheric transports associated with Arctic Oscillation and OHT to the Eurasian Arctic SIC variability are ~19% and ~81%, respectively. Especially, the contribution of decadal atmospheric transports is significantly intensified during 2000–2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The synoptic cold surge is a weather event that frequently occurs in the Northern Hemisphere, often causing severe damage accompanied with intense winds and precipitation. It is reported that the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation can affect the cold surge. However, on interacting with tropical circulation, the cold surge potentially links to the Antarctic sea‐ice loss with influence extending to Tropics. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the potential link between Antarctic sea‐ice loss and Northern Hemisphere cold surges and corresponding wind–precipitation compound events. To study this link, twin numerical experiments using a physically based atmosphere model with a prescribed 30% Antarctic sea‐ice loss scenario were used. The results show that the cold surge occurs more frequently in most regions of the world, except for central North America and central Eurasia. In Europe, the cold surges occur closer to the lower latitudes in the Antarctic sea‐ice loss scenario. Additionally, the Antarctic sea‐ice loss can result in intensified wind and precipitation extremes within compound events. The intensified precipitation extremes are caused by increased moisture transportation by tropical easterlies and higher local temperature after the cold surge occurrence, providing more moisture available for precipitation in East Asia and East North America, respectively. Overall, the results of the numerical experiments provide evidence that Antarctic sea‐ice loss influences cold surges in Northern Hemisphere through atmospheric teleconnections. It is important to continue investigating the link between Antarctic sea‐ice loss and weather events like cold surges, as this research can help improve our understanding of the impacts of polar climate change on lower latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the 24 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin (WRB) from 1951 to 2013, as well as the runoff data from the mainstream of the Weihe River, the temporal and spatial variations in water balance in the WRB and its relationships with runoff, the drought index, and the climate index were analyzed. The results indicate that the water balance in the WRB has been in a deficit state over the past 63 years, showing a weak declining trend with a decreasing rate of −20.04 mm/decade. Water balance is closely related to potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and precipitation (P). At the annual time scale, P plays a dominant role in water balance for 6–8 months in the WRB. The distribution of the water deficit (WD) in the WRB is uneven throughout the year, with the largest deficit occurring in June and the smallest values generally occurring in September. Furthermore, there are significant multi-scale correlations between water deficit and climate indices such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the WRB. In addition, water deficit is also influenced by human activities, such as irrigation, as well as climate factors and socio-economic factors. Studying the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of water deficit and its influencing factors in the WRB is helpful toward deeply understanding the supply and demand dynamics of water resources in the basin and providing a theoretical basis and scientific guidance for the rational utilization of water resources and the high-quality development of the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using multiple observational and reanalysis data, this paper investigates the impact of the interdecadal shift in summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on precipitation in East Asia, by removing ENSO influences. The results indicate that the lower-layer activity center of summer AO in Atlantic shifted eastward after the mid-1980s. This regime shift of summer AO has a significant impact on precipitation in East Asia. Before the mid-1980s, the key regions in which precipitation was affected by AO in East Asia were northern East Asia and Northeastern China and adjacent regions. After the mid-1980s, the key regions in which precipitation was affected by AO in East Asia were central Inner Mongolia and Southern China. The mechanism of precipitation changes can be attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport related to AO changes. After the mid-1980s, the influence of AO on geopotential height over northern East Asia weakened; meanwhile, the impact of AO on geopotential height over China increased. Consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport in East Asia also underwent interdecadal changes before and after the mid-1980s. The differences in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport in East Asia can be traced back to the North Atlantic. Before the mid-1980s, wave activity flux related to summer AO tended to propagate in high latitudes and subtropics; after the mid-1980s, the wave activity flux changed in its subtropical path and propagated eastward from the North Atlantic through the Middle East to China, significantly affecting the summer precipitation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given sea ice's importance in global climate regulation, fully understanding the role of natural temperature and atmospheric patterns like the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in its variability is critical. While instrumental AMO and reliable AO records are available since the mid‐1800s and 1958, respectively, satellite sea‐ice concentration data sets start only in 1979, limiting the shared timespan to study their interplay. Growth increments of the coralline algae, Clathromorphum compactum, can provide sea‐ice proxy information for years prior to 1979. We present a seasonal 210‐year algal record from Lancaster Sound in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago capturing low frequency AMO/NAO variability and high frequency interannual AO/NAO prior to 2000. We suggest that sea‐ice variability here is strongly coupled to these large‐scale climate processes, and that sea‐ice cover was greater and the AO more negative in the early and late 19th century compared to the 20th. Plain Language Summary: Arctic sea‐ice variability is dually related to air/ocean temperatures and dynamic forces (wind patterns and ocean currents). While long‐term basin‐averaged temperature trends (i.e., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) tend to influence variability over decades, cyclical wind patterns (e.g., Arctic Oscillation), may instead influence it seasonally and interannually. When the Atlantic Multidecadal and/or Arctic Oscillation (AMO/AO) are in a positive phase, warmer air and winds tend to export sea‐ice out of the Arctic, and vice‐versa during negative phases. Unfortunately, the span of the satellite sea‐ice cover record is too short to study long‐term sea‐ice variability driven by these patterns. Therefore, proxy records are required to fill this gap. The tree‐ring‐like growth bands of an Arctic coralline red algae have produced multi‐centennial proxy sea‐ice cover records. We present a 210‐year algal sea‐ice proxy record, showing a relationship with instrumental AMO (1861–present) and AO records (1958–2000). It also suggests that the AO was more negative and sea‐ice cover was greater during the 19th century in comparison to the 20th century. Due to sea‐ice's role in global climate at different timescales, this record can be utilized to tune climate models or constrain the relative influence of internal forcing on sea‐ice behavior. Key Points: Annual algal growth increment widths (sea ice cover proxy) correlate most strongly with summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) trendsAbrupt width increases in the early 1800s and 1920s capture sea‐ice cover decreases in phase with or slightly lagging behind +AMO phasesThe algal proxy record from Lancaster Sound captures +AO‐related sea‐ice export into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unprecedented sea ice loss in the Arctic is due to its stronger surface warming than other parts across the globe, resulting in far‐flung effects on weather and climate at different spatial and temporal scales. We investigate how Arctic Sea ice and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are associated at seasonal scale and when preconditioned by Arctic Oscillation (AO) phases. This study also examines the potential predictability using correlation and composite analysis. The results indicate a significant decline in sea ice extent (SIE) at a rate of 0.055 Mkm2/year (p < 0.05). The strong association between SIE and precipitation in the Indian region is confirmed by correlation values ranging from −0.6 to 0.6 (p < 0.05). The spatial patterns of seasonal SIE and precipitation association remain consistent for 1979–2021. We found that the prevailing AO phases influence the association of sea ice with ISMR precipitation. The high correlation between SIE and ISMR anomalies suggests that Arctic Sea ice could be a reliable predictor for ISMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU) and its two variants (EU1 and EU2) are the representative wintertime atmospheric teleconnections over Eurasian continent. They are mainly indicative of the local features and closely related to other teleconnection patterns. What are the major interannual climate modes over mid‐high latitude Eurasia in boreal winter is still an open question. With the ERA5 reanalysis data sets after removing the linear impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), three wintertime climate modes over mid‐high latitude Eurasia are identified by the first three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the anomalous relative tendency (ART) of 500 hPa geopotential height. They approximately explain 75% of the interannual variance in total. The three climate modes have combined features of EU‐like patterns with Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West Atlantic (WA) teleconnections, respectively, and they are named EU‐AO, EU‐NAO and EU‐WA climate modes accordingly. All the three climate modes originate mainly from the North Atlantic and demonstrate clear Rossby wave trains downstream to East Asia along the great circle route, and they can be primarily stimulated and maintained by positive air‐sea feedback over North Atlantic regarding to the obvious North Atlantic tripole‐like sea surface temperature patterns. Interannual climate variations over the most Eurasian continent are strongly linked to and well reproduced by the three ENSO‐independent climate modes, which can be applied as the important signals for monitoring and predicting winter interannual climate variabilities over mid‐high latitude Eurasia. Plain Language Summary: The climate signals from mid‐high latitudes have been getting more and more prominent for the extreme events in Eurasian continent during recent years, and they are generally demonstrated as the integrated features of multiple typical teleconnection patterns, which are usually interfered by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Filtering out the linear impact of ENSO, the first three empirical orthogonal function modes of the anomalous relative tendency of 500 hPa geopotential height are regarded as the major interannual ENSO‐independent wintertime climate modes over mid‐high latitude Eurasia. They have combined features of two typical teleconnection patterns, originating from the North Atlantic and exerting strong effects on Eurasian climate through downstream propagated planetary wave trains, and their spatial patterns are gradually shifted southwestward in order. Moreover, their generation and maintenance are primarily associated with the North Atlantic tripole‐like sea surface temperature and its positive interaction with the local atmosphere. The three ENSO‐independent climate modes are responsible for most of interannual variations of precipitation and temperature over Eurasian continent, and they can be applied as metrics for climate monitoring and climate prediction over Eurasia in boreal winter. Key Points: Three ENSO‐independent climate modes over mid‐high latitude Eurasia are identified as the combination of two typical teleconnection patternsNorth Atlantic tripole‐like sea surface temperature is the key factor causing the three ENSO‐independent climate modes via its forced local Rossby wave sourceThe three ENSO‐independent climate modes primarily determine the interannual variability over mid‐high latitude Eurasia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term variation in the static stability of lower atmosphere (SSLA) in the Arctic Mediterranean is investigated using reanalysis data. Climatological SSLA is categorized into a high-value region (Polar Region) and two low-value regions in the Norwegian Sea (Region-A) and southern part of Iceland (Region-B). The variations of SSLA are divided into trends and oscillations. In the Polar Region, SSLA exhibited a decreasing trend due to Arctic warming and sea ice decline, with negligible oscillatory variations. In Region-A and Region-B, the trends of SSLA are insignificant, while the oscillatory variation becomes obvious. SSLA there are highly correlated to Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index and vertical velocity. The driving factors in weakening SSLA are vertical velocity and surface heating, related to enhanced warm water advection dominated by AO. The variation of SSLA in turn feeds back the vertical velocity and AO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño can be categorized into long and short decaying cases in terms of the lengths of decaying phases. We find that the difference between long and short decaying El Niño emerges as early as the decaying spring, rather than the decaying summer mentioned in previous studies. Observational evidence suggests that this difference corresponds to the different positions of the spring Aleutian low (AL). Further analysis using 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations suggests that the AL that extends southeastward into the northeastern subtropical Pacific contributes to the long decaying El Niño. The northeastern subtropical Pacific AL, with an anomalous southwesterly on the southeast edge, is associated with warming in situ, which further induces cyclonic circulation anomalies over the eastern tropical Pacific as Gill's response. The anomalous westerly at the equator along the southern side of the cyclonic circulation anomalies is related to positive SST anomalies over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and therefore the persistence of El Niño in the decaying spring. On the other hand, the AL restricted to the North Pacific contributes to anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the central Pacific and favors the decline of El Niño through the seasonal footprint mechanism. Moreover, the models that reproduce many more long (short) decaying El Niño cases tend to simulate the AL southeastward extension (restriction over the North Pacific) during the El Niño decaying spring. The results imply that the AL position in the El Niño decaying spring could be a precursor to the length of El Niño decaying phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing evidence has shown that marine heatwaves (MHWs) have destructive impacts on marine ecosystems, and understanding the causes of these events is beneficial for mitigating the associated adverse effects on the provision of ecosystem services. During the 2019/20 boreal winter, a long-lasting extreme MHW event was recorded (over 90 days) in the Yellow Sea (YS). Observations and numerical experiments revealed that the unprecedented winter MHW event was initiated and sustained by a significant decrease in ocean heat loss in the YS, which may be associated with the pronounced weakening of the Siberian high system induced by an extreme positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event. A weakened northerly wind is the essential prerequisite, while the extreme AO event is only a trigger for the winter MHW in the YS. It was also found that the extreme winter MHW event is likely to substantially affect the seasonal evolution of the vertical thermal structure, which may have a great impact on the whole ecosystem in the YS. This study provides new insights for the prediction of winter MHWs in the YS, as well as their effects on marine ecosystems in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is an important strategic area in China. However, frequent extreme precipitation events have caused great economic losses and human casualties in this region. In this article, we explore the spatial and temporal links between extreme precipitation events and Sunspot Number (SSN), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in this important economic belt. According to the research findings, all of the extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) except for consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) showed an upward trend in the YREB over the 59 years. The spatial distributions of very wet days (R95p), extremely wet days (R99p), max 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) and max 5-day precipitation amount (Rx5day) had similar distribution patterns, showing decreasing trends from east to west. The EPIs generally had a 2–4-year band, suggesting stronger and more elusive changes. The wavelet coherence (WTC) spectra suggested that SSN, ENSO, AO, and PDO have different effects on extreme precipitation events during different time periods. Before 1985, the SSN, ENSO, AO, PDO and extreme precipitation events shared similar oscillation periods, but after 1985, their oscillation periods were no longer consistent with each other. In addition, solar activity and the AO mainly had negative correlations with extreme precipitation events, while the ENSO and PDO had predominantly positive correlations with the EPIs. This paper provides a reference for national economic strategic planning and natural resource management in the YREB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) is one of the major transboundary basins globally, facing ongoing challenges due to flood and drought disasters. Particularly in the past two decades, the basin has experienced an increased frequency of meteorological drought events, posing serious threats to the local socio-economic structures and ecological systems. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the meteorological drought characteristics in the LMRB and identify the impact and correlation of atmospheric circulation on the meteorological drought in the basin. Specifically, the different levels of meteorological drought events were defined using the Run Theory based on the seasonal and annual SPEI from 1980 to 2018. The time lag correlation between meteorological drought events and the EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), were analyzed in the LMRB. Our results indicated that, from a temporal perspective, the period from November to April of the following year was particularly prone to meteorological droughts in the basin. In terms of spatial distribution, the primary agricultural regions within the basin, including Thailand, Eastern Cambodia, and Vietnam, were highly susceptible to meteorological droughts. Further analysis revealed a teleconnection between drought events in the LMRB and atmospheric circulation factors. The sensitivity of the basin's drought timing to its response decreased in the order of the ENSO > AO > NAO > PDO. In general, the ENSO had the most substantial influence on drought events in the basin, with the strongest response relationship, while the upper reaches of the basin displayed the most significant response to the AO; the occurrence and progression of meteorological droughts in this area synchronized with the AO. These findings enhance our understanding of drought-prone areas in the LMRB, including the meteorological factors and driving mechanisms involved. This information is valuable for effectively mitigating and managing drought risks in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the spectral analysis results obtained for air temperature and ice cover on the East Siberian Sea shelf reconstructed for the past five thousand years, empirical forecast models have been constructed to record the "natural trend scenario" of these climatic parameters in the coming centuries. Based on the forecast construction results, the duration of the ice-free period, as well as the near-surface air temperature, will tend to increase in the future. The studies conducted make it possible to suggest the anthropogenic influence on the temperature and ice conditions in the studied region in the industrial period. Taking into account this factor, it can be assumed that the studied natural phenomena will have a higher rate than is indicated by the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interpreting changes in climate extremes indices and related large-scale teleconnection factors is critical to addressing intensified climate change. The spatiotemporal trend in SU25 (summer days) and ID0 (icing days), as well as the contribution rates of large-scale circulation factors, were investigated using daily maximum temperature data from 93 stations in the Shandong Peninsula and 8 metrics of large-scale teleconnections from 1961 to 2017. The results showed that SU25 increased significantly while ID0 decreased significantly in the Shandong Peninsula during the study period. SU25 ranged from 66.3 to 155.1 days and gradually declined from inland to coast. ID0 ranged from 4.7 to 24.8 days and decreased roughly from north to south. SU25 had a significant negative correlation with longitude, while the trend of SU25 had a significant positive correlation with longitude. ID0 had a significant positive correlation with both latitude and longitude, while the trend of ID0 had a significant negative correlation with both latitude and longitude. The abrupt years of SU25 were concentrated in 1965, 1976, 1977, 1994, 2007, and 2012, respectively. The change point of ID0 at each station was most concentrated in 1970, 1972, 1986, and 1988, respectively. In the future, SU25 in most stations will continue to increase, while ID0 in almost all the stations will decrease. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was the most important factor influencing SU25 change. Both the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and AMO made significant contributions to the ID0 change. The combined results of the two factors were usually greater than the results of the single circulation factor, and the contributions to SU25 and ID0 were mostly nonlinear enhancement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events has attracted substantial attention from the media and scholars alike. Herein, these events are investigated further, particularly in respect of their relation with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We define a Pacific pattern–Arctic rapid tropospheric daily warming (Pacific-RTDW) event, when the Arctic winter daily warming is triggered by a warm humid air mass that is transported by storms from the North Pacific into the Arctic. An anomalous northwest–southeast dipole pattern at 500-hPa geopotential is identified spanning from the Arctic to the North Pacific and associated with AO. The dipole pattern could favor the occurrence of Pacific-RTDW events because it induces a strong southerly in the middle troposphere, which mid-high-latitude storms may follow into the Arctic. In particular, the correlation between AO and the occurrence frequency of Pacific-RTDW events has strengthened since the early 1980s. This shift is attributed to the intensified Pacific storm-track (PST) activity intensity, which is possibly related to the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and has induced stronger synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks to low-frequency flows since this period. Accordingly, stronger feedbacks of the synoptic-scale eddies could provide a favorable condition for the formation of such a dipole pattern associated with the AO, bolstering the connection between AO and Pacific-RTDW events. In contrast, the eddy feedback to the flow is not strong enough and is, therefore, unable to provide favorable conditions before this period due to the comparatively weak PST intensity. Significance Statement: The Arctic winter daily warming event may lead to more severe cold air outbreaks invading the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. We explored the climatic conditions favorable for the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events, thereby revealing that the correlated atmospheric circulation features a northwest–southeast dipole pattern. Additionally, since the early 1980s, the intensified Pacific storm-track activity is believed to have contributed to strengthening of the correlation between the Arctic Oscillation and the occurrence frequency of Arctic winter daily warming events. The findings here are expected to assist in prediction of future Arctic winter daily warming events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]