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1. Impact of lockdowns and winter temperatures on natural gas consumption in Europe

Author

Stijn Nc Dellaert, Yann Françoise, Katsumasa Tanaka, Steven J. Davis, Léna Gurriaran, Chaopeng Hong, Zhu Deng, François-Marie Bréon, Michael Obersteiner, Ivan A. Janssens, Ciais Philippe, Josep Peñuelas, Zhu Liu, Yilong Wang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), TNO Climate, Air and Sustainability [Utrecht], The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Agence d’Écologie Urbaine, University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, Plant and Vegetation Ecology (PLECO), University of Antwerp (UA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), ANR-19-MPGA-0008, National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSFC: 42001104, Generalitat de Catalunya: AGAUR‐2020PANDE00117, Y. Wang acknowledges the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant No. 42001104. K. Tanaka benefited from State assistance managed by the National Research Agency in France under the Programme d’Investissements d’Avenir under the reference ANR‐19‐MPGA‐0008. J. Penuelas acknowledges the Catalan government grant AGAUR‐2020PANDE00117, Y. Wang acknowledges the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant No. 42001104. K. Tanaka benefited from State assistance managed by the National Research Agency in France under the Programme d?Investissements d?Avenir under the reference ANR-19-MPGA-0008. J. Penuelas acknowledges the Catalan government grant AGAUR-2020PANDE00117, and ANR-19-MPGA-0008,PRATO,Achieving the Paris Agreement Temperature Targets after Overshoot(2019)

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Natural resource economics, and environment, FOS: Physical sciences, law.invention, law, Natural gas consumption, medicine, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), GE1-350, Philippe Ciais, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Biology, QH540-549.5, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Ecology, Public health, Physics, Environmental sciences, Chemistry, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Transmission (mechanics), Geography, society, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), François-Marie Bréon Investigation: Philippe Ciais Methodology: Philippe Ciais The COVID-19 pandemic: linking health
Abstract

International audience; Natural gas use accounts for ≈38% of the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions in Europe, including the EU27 and UK (Eurostat, 2021). The share of this fossil fuel in the energy mix has been growing since 1990 at the expense of oil and coal, as it is viewed as a cleaner source of energy (IEA, 2021). The main sectors using natural gas are the built environment (residential, public and commercial buildings), the industry, and the electricity production (Eurostat, 2021). In addition to steadily growing natural gas use, the COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted economic activities and the energy demand, beginning in early March of 2020. Specifically, the government policies restricted mobility and confined people at home during "lockdowns", and reduced or closed industrial and non-essential commercial activities, with impacts on gas use and pertaining CO 2 emissions. Although such impacts have been noted by recent reports (IEA, 2020a, 2020b), they have not yet been quantified and analyzed in detail. During the cold season period when the pandemic arrived in Europe, natural gas consumption is typically high due to the heating demand in the built environment, which represents 52% of the total gas consumption from all-sectors averaged over January to June. For both residential and commercial buildings, gas consumption is typically inversely proportional to daily air temperature when temperatures fall below a comfort threshold "critical

Published
2021
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2. Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages

Author

Katsumasa Tanaka, Christian Azar, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Yann Gaucher, Daniel J. A. Johansson, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg, Sweden], K.T. benefited from State assistance managed by the National Research Agency in France under the Programme d’Investissements d’Avenir under the reference ANR-19-MPGA-0008. K.T. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan). D.J.A.J. acknowledges Mistra for funding through the research program Mistra Carbon Exit. C.A. acknowledges financial support from Mistra Electric Transition, Carl Bennet Foundation AB, and Åforsk foundation. Y.G. acknowledges financial support from the programme FOCUS - Economie Circulaire du Carbone at the Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), France., and ANR-19-MPGA-0008,PRATO,Achieving the Paris Agreement Temperature Targets after Overshoot(2019)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Physics - Physics and Society, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, General Economics (econ.GN), COVID-19, FOS: Physical sciences, Paris Agreement, Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), FOS: Economics and business, Integrated assessment models, Carbon pricing, Energy investment, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Green stimulus packages, Economics - General Economics
Abstract

It has been claimed that COVID-19 public stimulus packages could be sufficient to meet the short-term energy investment needs to leverage a shift toward a pathway consistent with the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we provide complementary perspectives to reiterate that substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond stimulus packages will be needed for achieving the Paris Agreement long-term targets. Low-carbon investments will need to scale up and persist over the next several decades following short-term stimulus packages. The required total energy investments in the real world can be larger than the currently available estimates from integrated assessment models (IAMs). Existing databases from IAMs are not sufficient for analyzing the effect of public spending on emission reduction. To inform what role COVID-19 stimulus packages and public investments may play for reaching the Paris Agreement targets, explicit modelling of such policies is required.

Published
2022

3. Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios

Author

Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, Philippe Ciais, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), This research has been supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (grant no. ANR-19-MPGA-0008), Horizon 2020 (CONSTRAIN (grant no. 820829)), the Agence de la transition écologique (convention on financial support for climate services), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (grant no. JPMXD0717935715), and the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (grant no. JPMEERF20192004)., and ANR-19-MPGA-0008,PRATO,Achieving the Paris Agreement Temperature Targets after Overshoot(2019)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract

Stringent mitigation pathways frame the deployment of second-generation bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to generate negative CO2 emissions. This bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technology facilitates the achievement of the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use five state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) to explore the consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment on the climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under the CMIP6 SSP5-3.4-0S overshoot scenario keeping in mind that all these models use generic crop vegetation to simulate BECCS. First, we evaluate the land cover representation by ESMs and highlight the inconsistencies that emerge during translation of the data from integrated assessment models (IAMB) that are used to develop the scenario. Second, we evaluate the land-use change (LUC) emissions of ESMs against bookkeeping models. Finally, we show that an extensive cropland expansion for BECCS causes ecosystem carbon loss that drives the acceleration of carbon turnover and affects the CO2 fertilization effect- and climate-change-driven land carbon uptake. Over the 2000-2100 period, the LUC for BECCS leads to an offset of the CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake by 12.2 % and amplifies the climate-change-driven carbon loss by 14.6 %. A human choice on land area allocation for energy crops should take into account not only the potential amount of the bioenergy yield but also the LUC emissions, and the associated loss of future potential change in the carbon uptake. The dependency of the land carbon uptake on LUC is strong in the SSP5-3.4-OS scenario, but it also affects other Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and should be taken into account by the IAM teams. Future studies should further investigate the trade-offs between the carbon gains from the bioenergy yield and losses from the reduced CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake where BECCS is applied., Earth System Dynamics, 13 (2), ISSN:2190-4987, ISSN:2190-4979

Published
2022

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