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Reunión Ibérica sobre Fallas Activas y Paleosismología (3ª. 2018. Alicante), Earthquake ruptures can be accommodated through the implication of multiple different fault sections within a specific fault or fault system (multi-fault ruptures). Accordingly, seismic hazard assessments should move from considering faults as individual sources to consider them as an interacting system. In this preliminary study we explored the magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) of five different hypotheses of fault ruptures for the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (EBSZ), each one determined by rules that allow or prevent particular fault sections from rupturing together. We used the computer code SHERIFS in order to obtain the MFDs of each hypothesis. Then, we performed a consistency check to analyse the fit between every modelled MFD and the short-term seismicity rates deduced from the regional seismic catalogue. The hypotheses that allow ruptures to propagate through a part or the whole fault system produce mean maximum magnitudes (Mwmax) over 7.0-7.6 with cumulative annual rates between 10-4-10-7 earthquakes/year (eq/yr), depending on the model considered. These annual rates are much lower than those obtained from the hypotheses that prevent multi-fault ruptures, but maximum magnitudes are almost one order higher (10-4-10-6 eq/yr for Mwmax~ 6.5-7.0). For the consistency check we observed that the hypothesis that fits best the catalog is the one that allows the occurrence of long multi-fault ruptures between several major faults of the system, so this is our preferred model, but other hypotheses cannot be discarded. It is important to consider that the results of this study are preliminary, since the research is still ongoing. Improvements on the rupture models (e.g. by including more fault sources), exploration of the buffer area, completeness of the catalogue and other variables (e.g. b value) need to be done in the future to obtain more accurate results., Grupo RISKNAT, Departament de Dinàmica de la Terra i de l’Oceà, Universitat de Barcelona, España, Bureau d’Evaluation des Risques Sismiques pour la Sûreté des Installations, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Francia, Laboratoire de géologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Centre national de la recherche scientifique, Francia, Laboratoire de géologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université de recherche Paris Sciences et Lettres, Francia, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España, Departamento de Geodinámica, Estratigrafía y Paleontología, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, España

The agriculture has represented an important source of food for mankind since the ancient times. Romania is a country that has fertile soils and a climate that offers favorable conditions for agriculture. These conditions can also be found in the Oltenia S-W Region where the agriculture represents an important resource having over a million hectares that are used for grain crops and for the oleaginous plants. Within this study we are going to analyze the indicators regarding the evolution of the cultivated surfaces, the productions and the prices of the main crops (wheat, corn, sunflower): the average, the annual growth rate, the deviations in absolute scales.

This paper uses panel data to analyze factors that contributed to the rapid decline in poverty in India between 2005 and 2012. The analysis employs a nonparametric decomposition method that measures the relative contributions of different components of household livelihoods to observed changes in poverty. The results show that poverty decline is associated with a significant increase in labor earnings, explained in turn by a steep rise in wages for unskilled labor, and diversification from farm to nonfarm sources of income in rural areas. Transfers, in the form of remittances and social programs, have contributed but are not the primary drivers of poverty decline over this period. The pattern of changes is consistent with processes associated with structural transformation, which add up to a highly pro-poor pattern of income growth over the initial distribution of income and consumption. However, certain social groups (Adivasis and Dalits) are found to be more likely to stay in or fall into poverty and less likely to move out of poverty. And even as poverty has reduced dramatically, the share of vulnerable population has not.

This paper uses a set of national household surveys to study the regional Sub-Saharan Africa distribution of consumption expenditure among individuals during 1993 to 2008. The analysis puts the disparities in living standards that exist among persons in Africa into context with the disparities that exist within and between African countries. Regional interpersonal inequality has increased (from a Gini index of 52 percent in 1993 to 56 percent in 2008), driven by increasing disparities in living standards across countries, while there has been no systematic increase in within-country inequality. For the African distribution as a whole, growth of consumption expenditure (from household surveys) has been low (around 1 percent per year). This growth has been uneven and as a result the richest 5 percent of Africans received around 40 percent of the total gains, while the bottom third stagnated.

The report is part of a series of learning products with limited objectives geared towards synthesizing existing knowledge as well as learning and gaining new insights into the factors that influence design, policy implementation, and performance of development policy loans. It aims to provide fresh insights and build on previous evaluations of Bank investment projects and research and analytical work (for example, recent independent evaluation group (IEG) work on development policy operations (DPOs) includes the evaluation of poverty reduction support credits (PRSCs), first and second financial crisis evaluations (which examined crisis DPOs), recent operations policy and country services (OPCS) DPO retrospectives, and new research presented in this report on aspects of DPOs using a combination of approaches). The quality of macro frameworks in DPOs alone has not been subject of in-depth study. This report aims to contribute to filling that gap with a: (i) preliminary analysis of the quality of macro-fiscal frameworks in DPOs, and (ii) a comprehensive database of project level DPOs and related country and economic policy and statistical information, which is a byproduct of the study.

This South African Agricultural Public Expenditure Review (AgPer) is one of a series of similar studies undertaken in several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) of the African Union’s (AU) New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) which encourages governments and development partners (DPs) to target public expenditure on the agriculture sector as the most effective way of stimulating growth. The overall purpose of the budget tracking and public expenditure review is to provide recommendations to address budgetary planning, budget execution, and accountability in the agricultural sector, the creation of a reliable data base, and more effective intra- and inter-sectoral coordination. It is also aimed at stimulating increased resource allocations and to enhance the harmonization and alignment of resources around national and provincial priorities in the agricultural sector. The report aims to produce the following outputs: foundation data set for understanding reflecting the COFOG and South African nomenclature in budgeting; synthesis of the level, composition and quality of budget; and recommendations for enhancement of the budget tracking process.

Bhutan is situated between the Tibetan Plateau in the North and Indian plains in the south. The development philosophy in Bhutan is embedded in the concept of Gross National Happiness (GNH) that, as a public policy strategy, seeks to address a more meaningful purpose of development that goes beyond the fulfillment of material satisfaction. The concept is grounded in the four pillars of development; socio-economic, environment, culture, and good governance. Bhutan s record on growth and development has made it a top performer in the South Asian region. The average annual growth rate of GDP over 1980-2010 in country was more than 7.6 percent, one of the highest in the South Asian sub-continent (SAS). Bhutan, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of about US$2,000, is now classified as a lower-middle income country. However, one of the most notable features about Bhutan s macro economy is its lack of diversification, dependence on and exposure to external developments, and the high levels of year-to-year volatility in its economic growth. Public Expenditure Review (PER) begins with an overview of the macro-economic context (chapter two) and public sector management (chapter three) in Bhutan. This is followed by an analytical summary of achievements to date in the health and education sectors (chapters four and five). The PER concludes (chapter six) with policy options and recommendations which are intended to spur discussion and analysis among policy-makers in Bhutan as they look into different possibilities to increase fiscal space in domestic resources while enhancing the quality of expenditures and improving outcomes in the health and education systems.

The firming of the economic recovery is putting the policy spotlight back on the longer term challenge of faster, more inclusive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Modest investment rates despite attractive returns and low savings rates despite favorable demographics are important impediments. A virtuous cycle of faster capital accumulation, job creation (especially for the youth), and technological advancement needs to be stimulated. There are no quick fixes that can produce the desired stimulus. The quest for inclusive growth calls for a different, bolder approach. Integration of the advanced and less-developed economies and more effective integration with the global economy, using factory Southern Africa as a platform, hold considerable potential. South Africa's medium-term growth prospects point to a strengthening recovery. GDP growth is projected to be 3.5 percent in 2011, 4.1 percent in 2012 and 4.4 percent in 2013. The long term potential growth rate under the current policy environment is estimated at 3.5 percent. In light of South Africa's low national savings, the reemergence of high current account deficits, financed mostly through volatile portfolio flows, will reemerge as the biggest cause for macroeconomic concern over the medium term. With considerable strengthening of the economic recovery and GDP projected to reach its potential by 2014, the focus shifts back to the longer term challenge of raising GDP growth to 6-7 percent and making it much more inclusive to tackle the extremely high unemployment. This first issue is anchored in the national aspirations of faster and more inclusive growth, with special emphasis on the issues of savings and investment.

Benin experienced a long period of political instability and economic challenges after achieving its independence in August 1960. In 1991 a new government initiated far-reaching reforms aimed at the creation of a market-based economy, resulting in significant liberalization of Benin's political and economic system. Growth fluctuated in the range of 4-6 percent until 2000, after which it began to trend downwards, fluctuating largely in response to variation in the exchange rate as well as to movement in the prices of cotton, Benin's main export, and oil, a major import. Benin benefited from support under the Environmental and Social Assessment Framework (ESAF) and Poverty Reduction and Growth (PRGF) facilities, the latter continuously since 1993. According to an independent ex-post review (International Monetary Fund 2004), program implementation during 1993-2003 was broadly successful. Real economic growth averaged 5 percent and fiscal consolidation improved as key initial challenges arising from the Government's low revenue collection and high wage bill were addressed. But overall progress in structural reform was mixed. Initial efforts to liberalize the economy and reduce government intervention were successful, and there was progress in introducing far-reaching reforms in the cotton sector. A new poverty reduction growth facility was approved in August 2005.

Nicaragua's state domination of productive capacity from the late 1970s to 1990, coupled with the civil war of the 1980s, left the economy with hyperinflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, and an external debt that was six times gross domestic product. As a result, economic activity declined at a sharp rate. By 1993, per capita income had fallen by a full 60 percent from the 1977 level. By the early 1990s the country was receiving aid equivalent to more than 70 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Subsequent administrations tried to address the country's economic problems through fiscal and monetary discipline and market-oriented reforms to redefine the role of the state. There were some successes, for example, decisive government action reduced inflation to around 10 percent by 1995, but many reforms failed due to their slow pace and to continued political volatility. The Bank supported the reform agenda with two economic recovery credit operations in the early 1990s. The results were less positive than expected, as the government's capacity to privatize state-owned enterprises and otherwise reform the public sector wavered in the face of political instability. The lack of political consensus prompted the Bank to withdraw from structural adjustment lending for several years. An opening for re-engagement was provided in 2002 when, after several failed attempts, Nicaragua successfully implemented the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). This allowed the Bank to respond to the government's request for assistance to close a financing gap through fast disbursing budget support in the form of a programmatic structural adjustment credit. While technically a structural adjustment loan, the credit supported objectives based on budget-based goals already attained in implementing a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which had been prepared by the government in 2001. In this sense, the credit was the last structural adjustment loan and the precursor to the Poverty Reduction Support Credits (PRSCs).

Za podatke registara za rak najviše se zna zbog njihova potencijala opisivanja incidencije raka, preživljavanja i prevalencije u nacionalnim i međunarodnim okvirima. Često se za usporedbu rabe mortalitetni podaci, posebice stoga što su dostupniji za mnogo više zemalja nego podaci o morbiditetu. Ispitivanja incidencije raka u svijetu daju spoznaje o etiologiji raka, na primjer, putem opažanja razlika incidencije izme|u pojedinih područja, studija migranata ili specifično izloženih grupa. U epidemiološkim istraživanjima registar koristi za korelacijske studije, za identifikaciju slučajeva u case control studijama, za definiranje kohorte ili krajnje točke praćenja kohorte. Zbog povezivanja podataka na nivou osobe, registri su korisni i za područje genetičke epidemiologije. Cilj ovog rada je na temelju konkretne zemljopisne distribucije incidencije nekih izabranih sijela raka, a koristeći se Registrom za rak, pretpostaviti različito djelovanje uzročnih čimbenika. Primijenjena je analiza za 17 definiranih zemljopisnih područja Hrvatske. Analizirana je dobno-standardizirana prosječna godišnja stopa incidencije za izabrana sijela raka za razdoblje 1991–95. Razlike izme|u pojedinih područja prisutne su gotovo za sva prikazana sijela raka. Rezultati upućuju na potrebu daljnjih istraživanja, etioloških i drugih. Dobivene razlike u incidenciji raka između pojedinih područja Hrvatske odraz su djelovanja mnogobrojnih čimbenika: značajki populacije, makro i mikrookoline., Systematic collection of data on cancer incidence started in the US and Europe in 1930s. Today, cancer registries have an increasingly universal coverage. The application of a cancer registry may extend to include follow-ups, cancer etiology research, and cancer control programs. Of course, the applicability of a cancer registry depends on reliability and utility of the data. Cancer registries are best known for their potential to describe incidence, survival, and prevalence of cancer on a national and international level. Although poorer in quality, mortality data are frequently used in comparisons, as these are more readily available in many countries than the morbidity data. Studies of cancer incidence reveal etiology of cancers, through, for instance, observations of differences in incidence between areas, through migrant studies, or through studies of specific exposed groups (descriptive studies). A registry may serve as a referential point for a hypothesis on the roles of diet, environmental hazards, infections, and so on in the development of cancer. In epidemiological studies, the registry is used for correlational studies, case identification in case control studies, as well as to define cohorts, or the end-point of a cohort followup. Recently, the recording of data has extended not only to the anatomical site, but also to the morphology of a tumour, which serve more adequately to etiological studies. However, the assessment of a specific exposure is of ten poor, as the scarcity of cases often forces the researchers to group the data. Registries may also help to link data on an individual level, that is, in the area of genetic epidemiology. This study made use of the Croatian cancer registry founded in 1959 to investigate specific geographical distribution of cancer incidence by site – esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, colonic cancer, rectal cancer, biliary bladder cancer, lung cancer, cancer of the mammae, melanoma, cancer of the prostate, urinary bladder cancer, renal cancer, thyroid cancer, and myeloic leukemia. The objectives of the study were to see how causative agents differed in impact and to define the scope of investigations in cancer epidemiology. The investigation involved age-standardized average annual incidence rates in 17 geographical areas in Croatia for the period 1991–95. Nearly all geographical areas differed from one another in the incidence by cancer site. Interregional differences in cancer incidence in Croatia may reflect the action of multiple factors such as population characteristics, macroenvironment, and microenvironment. The results indicate a need for further studies and invite the use of epidemiological modelling, given the potentials of information technology.