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Market risk with its major components, such as the risk of interest rate instruments, currency risk, and risk related to stock and commodity investigations, represents the risk of losses in balance sheet and off-balance sheet positions, resulting from negative market price movements. Portfolios of instruments traded for short-term profits, called trading portfolios, are exposed to market risk or risk of loss, resulting from changes in the prices of instruments, such as stocks, bonds, and currencies. This paper, through theoretical and empirical methods, assesses risk by using the probability distribution of daily variations in government bond yields. Long-term government securities in most cases have a higher return due to the higher level of risk assumed regarding changes in risk factors such as interest rates, which, when raised above a certain threshold, cause a price decrease, which illustrates the price sensitivity to long-term bonds. Using Value at Risk as the main element for determining the maximum possible loss on investment in a trading book, as well as statistical tests to measure the similarity between two or more distributions such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson -Darling or Chi-squared, we identified the most representative theoretical probabilistic distribution both for the value of losses and for the frequency of risk events. At the same time, the most used distributions to manage the market risk by advanced methods and, of course, the distributions used in this paper, were Weibull and Pareto (including the generalized form), as well as other distributions, because they better capture the asymmetry in queues and the presence of thick tails. Modeling the distribution of losses requires choosing from a set of probable distributions, the one with the highest log-likelihood.

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Copyright of Industria Textila is the property of Institutul National de Cercetare-Dezvoltare pentru Textile si Pielarie and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the context of the growing pace of technological development and that of the transition to the knowledge-based economy, wealth management strategies have become subject to the application of new ideas. One of the fields of research that are increasing in influence in the scientific community is that of reinforcement learning-based algorithms. This trend is also manifesting in the domain of economics, where the algorithms have found a use in the field of stock trading. The use of algorithms has been tested by researchers in the last decade due to the fact that by applying these new concepts, fund managers could obtain an advantage when compared to using classic management techniques. The present paper will test the effects of applying these algorithms on the Romanian market, taking into account that it is a relatively new market, and compare it to the results obtained by applying classic optimization techniques based on passive wealth management concepts. We chose the Romanian stock market due to its recent evolution regarding the FTSE Russell ratings and the fact that the country is becoming an Eastern European hub of development in the IT sector, these facts could indicate that the Romanian stock market will become even more significant in the future at a local and maybe even at a regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002). This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims at analysing several options concerning the economic policies Romania should adopt in the following years, in order to attenuate the long term vulnerabilities within the process of joining to the Euro zone, with the observation that, the economic policies proposed in the current work were selected mainly based on the decisive factors for the real equilibrium exchange rate in Romania. Fulfilling the nominal criteria for adhesion can prove itself to be more facile but not able to ensure, on a long term and in a sustainable manner, reaching an optimum for the economy that adheres irreversibly to the Euro zone. It is important to analyze how the competitiveness of other economies evolved prior and after joining the Euro zone, from the perspective of identifying some economic policies meant to ensure the accomplishment of the real convergence criteria to the Euro zone for Romania's case, on a long term. The economic policies proposed by the authors try to help covering the greatest delays for Romania in comparison with other states in the Euro zone and which, unsolved, can create in time significant vulnerabilities on a long term, having a negative impact for many generations of Romanians from now on. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the process of preparing a state for the accession to the Euro Zone it is essential to analyze the price competitiveness of that state's economy and the challenges that entrepreneurs will have to face in the new economic environment. In the present paper the authors want to capture some aspects of the competitiveness of the Romanian economy and implicit its entrepreneurs with emphasis on price competitiveness, whereas accession to the Euro Zone implies giving up to the independence of exchange rate policy, with a huge impact on price competitiveness. For this purpose this study will highlight a few elements on the relative importance of price competitiveness of entrepreneurs' exports performance. The process of accessing Euro Zone creates significant changes in the existing way of conducting business and impacts significantly entire business environment - and this will become evident also for Romania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we present some reasons why the financial institutions and the entities active in the Romanian economy have to strengthen their institutional partnership, for the benefit of the entire community. We also analyze the economic factors that interfere into this partnership, and also the possible ways and means of optimization. The study and, particularly the proposed solutions may represent a viable option for an efficient management of the development process of the local communities in Romania. We bring scientific and practical arguments that there is a big need for this partnership, as currently, we are experiencing a big lack of mutual trust that is perceived as a gap in the cooperation between the owners of financial resources, on one hand, and the entrepreneurs and the public authorities, on the other hand. Looking from a European perspective and also from the historical evolution, in Romanian's case, local economic development is a challenge that must be achieved by valuing any available resource at its best. Local resources are not always enough for financing the development needs of the communities. For progressing, they must be completed with borrowed sources. The banking loan, although it includes collateral costs and risks, represents a resource that must be used accordingly, for not losing the development opportunities. The capital insertion on the local market by banking loan generates an economic increase, social development, and can offer new working places to the local community members. Good knowledge of the lending needs, of the advantages, of the costs but also of the associated risks of the lending activity is essential for fully benefiting of such a resource in the local and regional economic and social development process, for the benefit of all the involved parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current paper aims to analyse one of the many models of evaluation for the equilibrum rate in an economy. It also briefly presents the main models and methods used in the specialized literature for the evaluation of the equilibrum exchange rate. The utilization of as many methods allows the deciders of monetary and economic policy to accurately ground the moment of one country adhesion to the euro zone. Also, an analysis can be made, whether the respective countru is ready and how fast the process of convergence to the Euro zone can evolve. In general, it is recommendable a country not to force de adhesion to the euro zone because the negative effects may occur for a long period of time, leading to a development for the respective economy under its potential. The estimated model in Romania based on data will be afterwards used for estimating the equilibrum rate and for issuing scenarios concerning its future evolution. Usually, the parity at which the national currency should be converted for an unlimited period of time, will also be around the level of the equilibrum rate. From that moment on, after attending the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II), the respective country's economy loses an equilibrum buffer - the exchange rate. Starting from that moment, the country's economy is supposed to be so performant that it absorbs the internal and external negative shocks, only relaying on the fiscal and budget policies. Hence, the particular importance of a correct evaluation for the equilibrum rate by using several models and methods, so that to be as close as possible to the equilibrum level on mid term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]