Cailleret, Maxime, Dakos, Vasilis, Jansen, Steven, Robert, Elisabeth M. R., Aakala, Tuomas, Amoroso, Mariano Martin, Antos, Joe A., Bigler, Christof, Bugmann, Harald, Caccianaga, Marco, Camarero, Jesus Julio, Cherubini, Paolo, Coyea, Marie R., Cufar, Katarina, Das, Adrian J., Davi, Hendrik, Gea Izquierdo, Guillermo, Gillner, Sten, Haavik, Laurel J., Hartmann, Henrik, Heres, Ana Maria, Hultine, Kevin R., Janda, Pavel, Kane, Jeffrey M., Kharuk, Viachelsav I., Kitzberger, Thomas, Klein, Tamir, Levanic, Tom, Linares, Juan Carlos, Lombardi, Fabio, Mäkinen, Harri, Mészáros, Ilona, Metsaranta, Juha M., Oberhuber, Walter, Papadopoulos, Andreas, Petritan, Any Mary, Rohner, Brigitte, Sangüesa Barreda, Gabriel, Smith, Jeremy M., Stan, Amanda B., Stojanovic, Dejan B., Suarez, Maria Laura, Svoboda, Miroslav, Trotsiuk, Volodymyr, Villalba, Ricardo, Westwood, Alana R., Wyckoff, Peter H., Martínez Vilalta, Jordi, Boreal forest dynamics and biodiversity research group, Department of Forest Sciences, Forest Ecology and Management, Institut des cellules souches pour le traitement et l'étude des maladies monogéniques (I-STEM), Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne (UEVE)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Systematic Botany and Ecology, Universität Ulm - Ulm University [Ulm, Allemagne], Centre méditérannéen de médecine moléculaire (C3M), Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) (UNS), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), University of Helsinki, Institute of terrestrial ecosystems, Department of Environmental Sciences, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)-Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Avalanche Research WSL, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Unité de Recherches Forestières Méditerranéennes (URFM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Forest Botany and Forest Zoology, Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Czech University of Life Science, Universidad Nacional del Comahue [Neuquén] (UNCOMA), Agricultural Research Organization, Slovenian Forestry Institute, Dipartimento AGR, Università degli Studi Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria, Natural Resources Institute Finland, University of Debrecen, Leopold Franzens Univ Innsbruck, Inst Bot, Innsbruck, Austria, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Department of Forestry and Natural Environment Management, Technological Education Institute of Lamia, Institute of Terretrial Ecosystems, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, University of Novi Sad, Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales [Mendoza] (CONICET-IANIGLA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo [Mendoza] (UNCUYO), Ecolog Unit, and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [Barcelona] (UAB)
Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms. Fil: Cailleret, Maxime. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Suiza Fil: Dakos, Vasilis. Université Montpellier II; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Jansen, Steven. Universitat Ulm; Alemania Fil: Robert, Elisabeth M. R.. Royal Museum For Central Africa; Bélgica. Vrije Unviversiteit Brussel; Bélgica. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Centre de Recerca Ecológica I Aplicacions Forestals; España Fil: Aakala, Tuomas. University of Helsinski; Finlandia Fil: Amoroso, Mariano Martin. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina Fil: Antos, Joe A.. University of Victoria; Canadá Fil: Bigler, Christof. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Suiza Fil: Bugmann, Harald. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Suiza Fil: Caccianaga, Marco. Università degli Studi di Milano; Italia Fil: Camarero, Jesus Julio. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología; España. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España Fil: Cherubini, Paolo. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza Fil: Coyea, Marie R.. Laval University; Canadá Fil: Cufar, Katarina. University Of Ljubljana; Eslovenia Fil: Das, Adrian J.. United States Geological Survey; Estados Unidos Fil: Davi, Hendrik. Unité de Recherche des Forets Méditerranéennes; Francia Fil: Gea Izquierdo, Guillermo. Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria. Centro de Investigación Forestal; España Fil: Gillner, Sten. Institute of Forest Botany and Forest Zoology; Alemania Fil: Haavik, Laurel J.. USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection; Estados Unidos. University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Hartmann, Henrik. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; Alemania Fil: Heres, Ana Maria. Universitatea Transilvania Din Brasov; Rumania. Basque Centre For Climate Change; España Fil: Hultine, Kevin R.. Desert Botanical Garden. Conservation and Collections. Department of Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Janda, Pavel. Czech University of Life Sciences; República Checa Fil: Kane, Jeffrey M.. Humboldt State University; Estados Unidos Fil: Kharuk, Viachelsav I.. Siberian Federal University; Rusia Fil: Kitzberger, Thomas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina Fil: Klein, Tamir. Weizmann Institute of Science; Israel Fil: Levanic, Tom. Slovenian Forestry Institute; Eslovenia Fil: Linares, Juan Carlos. Universidad Pablo de Olavide; España Fil: Lombardi, Fabio. Universita Della Calabria.; Italia Fil: Mäkinen, Harri. Natural Resources Institute Finland; Finlandia Fil: Mészáros, Ilona. Debreceni Egyetem Természettudományi És Technológiai Kar; Hungría Fil: Metsaranta, Juha M.. Northern Forestry Centre; Canadá Fil: Oberhuber, Walter. Universidad de Innsbruck; Austria Fil: Papadopoulos, Andreas. Technological Educational Institute of Stereas Elladas; Grecia Fil: Petritan, Any Mary. Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt Fur Wald, Schnee Und Landschaft Eth-bereichs; Alemania Fil: Rohner, Brigitte. Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt Fur Wald, Schnee Und Landschaft Eth-bereichs; Alemania Fil: Sangüesa Barreda, Gabriel. Universidad de Valladolid; España Fil: Smith, Jeremy M.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: Stan, Amanda B.. Northern Arizona University; Estados Unidos Fil: Stojanovic, Dejan B.. University Of Novi Sad; Serbia Fil: Suarez, Maria Laura. Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria Bariloche; Argentina Fil: Svoboda, Miroslav. Czech University Of Life Sciences Prague; República Checa Fil: Trotsiuk, Volodymyr. Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; República Checa. Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt Fur Wald, Schnee Und Landschaft Eth bereichs; Alemania. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Alemania Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Cientifícas y Tecnológicas; Argentina Fil: Westwood, Alana R.. University of Alberta; Canadá Fil: Wyckoff, Peter H.. University Of Minnesota System; Estados Unidos Fil: Martínez Vilalta, Jordi. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; España. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Centre de Recerca Ecológica I Aplicacions Forestals; España