1. Severe Convectively Induced Turbulence Hitting a Passenger Aircraft and Its Forecast by the ECMWF IFS Model.
- Author
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Gisinger, S., Bramberger, M., Dörnbrack, A., and Bechtold, P.
- Subjects
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JET streams , *WEATHER forecasting , *TURBULENCE , *LEAD time (Supply chain management) , *AIRCRAFT occupants , *THUNDERSTORMS - Abstract
Atmospheric turbulence poses a major risk to aviation. Besides airframe damage, it can cause injuries of passengers and crew when encountered unexpectedly. The Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 was on its way from London to Singapore when severe turbulence was encountered over Myanmar on 21 May 2024. In this study, it is analyzed how well the turbulence was predicted by the turbulent eddy dissipation rate (EDR) forecast index of the ECMWF integrated forecasting system (IFS). It was found that ECMWF IFS was able to predict the convection and associated turbulence 24 hr in advance. The state‐of‐the‐art probabilistic EDR forecasts based on IFS ensemble members predicted probabilities for EDR >0.18 ${ >} 0.18$m2/3 ${\mathrm{m}}^{2/3}$s−1 ${\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ between 10% and 40% over Myanmar with higher values for shorter lead time (8‐hr forecast). Individual members predicted EDR >0.3 ${ >} 0.3$m2/3 ${\mathrm{m}}^{2/3}$s−1 ${\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$. Knowledge about the characteristics of convection in the IFS forecasts is required to make proper use of the probabilities determined from the ensemble for such cases. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric turbulence is a threat to aircraft because it is invisible to pilots in the absence of clouds and therefore often encountered unexpectedly. Turbulence is usually found close to mountains, near the atmospheric jet streams, or thunderstorms. A severe turbulence encounter can damage the airframe and cause injuries of passengers and crew. The Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 was on its way from London to Singapore when severe turbulence was encountered over Myanmar on 21 May 2024. Abrupt rapid changes in flight altitude including a drop of 178 ft left one passenger dead and dozens injured. In this study, it was found, that the turbulence forecast of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was able to predict the convection in the area and the associated turbulence 24 hr in advance. However, convection cannot be exactly predicted in time and space, so knowledge about the characteristics of the forecast of convection is needed to properly interpret such turbulence forecasts. Key Points: Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 encountered severe turbulence in an area where developing convection was presentECMWF IFS was able to predict the occurrence of convection and associated convectively induced turbulence more than 24 hr in advanceProbabilities from ensemble forecasts must be taken with care when convection is involved because of the variability in time and space [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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