Search

The objective of this article was to identify the variables that determined the radical change occurred in the structure of the Peruvian agricultural exports, as changing from the predominance of traditional products to non-traditional ones. As this change is fundamentally related to the great growth of non-traditional exports, led by fruit exports, the variables that determined said growth were identified. To this end, under the hypothesis that the determinants are on the supply side, with prior theoretical foundation that puts emphasis on supply factors, using the econometric technique of Ordinary Least Squares, econometric regressions were performed for the four main exported non-traditional products (grape, avocado, blueberry, asparagus). In this way, it was found that its export growth is mainly due to the greater allocation of land to these products, and to a lesser degree to the increase in productivity, thus configuring a change in the structure of the sector exports., El objetivo de este artículo consistió en identificar las variables que determinaron el cambio radical ocurrido en la estructura de las exportaciones agrícolas peruanas, al pasar del predominio de los productos tradicionales hacia los no tradicionales. Ya que tal cambio está relacionado fundamentalmente al gran crecimiento de las exportaciones no tradicionales, lideradas por las exportaciones de frutas, se identificaron las variables que determinaron dicho crecimiento. Para ello, bajo la hipótesis de que los determinantes están en el lado de la oferta, previa fundamentación teórica que pone énfasis en los factores de la oferta, utilizando la técnica econométrica de los Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios, se efectuaron regresiones econométricas para los cuatro principales productos no tradicionales exportados (uva, palta, arándano, espárrago). Así, se halló que su crecimiento exportador se debió fundamentalmente a la mayor asignación de tierras a estos productos, y en menor grado al incremento en la productividad, configurándose de esa manera un cambio en la estructura de las exportaciones del sector.

Forecasting the prices of hogs has always been a popular field of research. Such information has played an essential role in decision-making for farmers, consumers, corporations, and governments. It is hard to predict hog prices because too many factors can influence them. Some of the factors are easy to quantify, but some are not. Capturing the characteristics behind the price data is also tricky considering their non-linear and non-stationary nature. To address these difficulties, we propose Heterogeneous Graph-enhanced LSTM (HGLTSM), which is a method that predicts weekly hog price. In this paper, we first extract the historical prices of necessary agricultural products in recent years. Then, we utilize discussions from the online professional community to build heterogeneous graphs. These graphs have rich information of both discussions and the engaged users. Finally, we construct HGLSTM to make the prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that forum discussions are beneficial to hog price prediction. Moreover, our method exhibits a better performance than existing methods.

Introduction: This paper proposes a teaching strategy to the rural population based on the Design Thinking model, which teaches different thinking, through the use of practical learning as a catalyst for knowledge. Methodology: The above considers the creation of productive chains associated with an enterprise, which will serve as support in negotiations, contact with companies, and knowledge manager for the rural population, which historically and generally has not received fair trade and market conditions (Salcedo, 2013) in addition to the worrying low educational and economic levels. Results: That is why we intend to solve the previous situation using a tool that allows us to think differently, given the association with the concepts of innovation, creation of products and companies. Conclusions: that it will serve as support for the aromatic cultivation population in the lower Sumapaz, and more striking products are designed that satisfy a specific value proposition. Introducción: el presente artículo propone una estrategia de enseñanza a la población campesina basada en el modelo de Design Thinking, el cual enseña a pensar diferente, mediante el uso del aprendizaje práctico como catalizador del conocimiento. Metodología: se analiza la creación de cadenas productivas asociadas a un emprendimiento agroindustrial, que servirán de apoyo en negociaciones, contacto con empresas, y gestión del conocimiento para la población campesina, la cual históricamente y a nivel general no ha recibido condiciones justas de comercio y mercado (Salcedo, 2013), además de los preocupantes bajos niveles educativos y económicos. Resultados: se intentó resolver la anterior situación usando una herramienta que permita pensar diferente, dada la asociación con los conceptos de innovación, creación de productos y empresas. Conclusiones: se espera que sirva como apoyo a la población cultivadora de aromáticas en el bajo Sumapaz, y se diseñen productos más llamativos que satisfagan una propuesta de valor determinada.

Resumen Desde la década de los 90, Colombia ha firmado diferentes acuerdos de libre comercio con diversos países y comunidades, a fin de liberar los aranceles de importación de varios productos agropecuarios sensibles a grandes volúmenes de importaciones, como es el caso del maíz, alimento básico de la canasta familiar, el cual ha presentado una disminución en la producción en los últimos veinte años. Este artículo propone una evaluación de los efectos del Tratado de Libre Comercio celebrado con Estados Unidos a través del modelo lineal mixto, teniendo como variable respuesta los precios semanales del maíz blanco y amarillo comercializado en las principales plazas de mercado colombianas, en un lapso de tiempo comprendido entre junio de 1996 hasta diciembre de 2016. Donde se encontró una disminución en los precios de comercialización en el tiempo, generando repercusiones sobre el ingreso del productor de maíz colombiano por tonelada producida. Abstract Since the 1990s, Colombia has negotiated various free trade agreements with different countries and communities, eliminating import tariffs on different agricultural products that are sensitive to large volumes of importations, such as corn, a staple food in the family basket, which has shown a decrease in production in the last 20 years. This article proposes an evaluation of the effects of the Free Trade Agreement signed with the United States through the linear mixed model, having as a response variable the weekly prices of white and yellow corn marketed in the main Colombian market places in a period of time between June 1996 and December 2016, where there was a decrease in market prices, with repercussions on the incomes of Colombian corn producers. Resumo Desde os anos 90 Colômbia concordou vários acordos de livre comércio com diferentes países e comunidades, liberando as tarifas de importação de diferentes sensível a grandes volumes de importação de produtos agrícolas, como no caso do milho amarelo, o alimento básico na cesta, que apresentou uma diminuição na produção ao longo dos últimos 20 anos. Este artigo propõe uma avaliação dos efeitos do pacto de livre comércio com os Estados Unidos através do modelo linear misto, com a resposta preços semanais variáveis de milho amarelo vendidos nas principais praças do mercado colombiano, durante um período de tempo entre junho 1996 até 2016 Dezembro, que encontraram uma diminuição dos preços no mercado, gerando impacto sobre o produtor de milho colombiana.

Cet article est une contribution à l'ouvrage « 150 idées pour la réussite de nos agricultures ». Ce livre résulte d'un appel à idées de la SAF –Société des agriculteurs de France, devenue le Think tank Saf agr'iDées– lancé à l'occasion de ses 150 ans. Le livre présente les 150 suggestions et recommandations retenues regroupées par grandes thématiques. Cette contribution "Pour une revalorisation de l'agriculture et des agriculteurs " souligne la nécessité d'une revalorisation du prix des produits agricoles et de l'image de l'agriculture.

Cameroon (officially regarded as the Republic of Cameroon) is a country with vast natural resources and a population of 22.8 million people. It is also culturally and geographically very diverse. Due to its geographical and cultural diversity, Cameroon is often referred to as “Africa in miniature.” This country is currently considered as a lower middle-income country by the World Bank through social indicators and levels of poverty, which are below those for comparing countries. However, the Government of Cameroon aims to achieve a state of higher middle-income by 2035. There exists a huge potential for economic growth and poverty reduction in Cameroon. Indeed, over the last decade, the country has been characterized by a positive economic growth, spurred by large public investments in infrastructure. However, to attain the higher middle-income status by 2035, growth needs to accelerate further. As the public sector alone cannot bring this about, much more private investments are necessary. Doing so also requires improvements in the business environment.However, despite more than a decade of economic growth, national poverty has remained almost unchanged. While Cameroon is urbanizing rapidly, poverty remains a rural phenomenon and is increasingly concentrated in northern Cameroon.The aim of the book is to provide an overview of the main issues, challenges, and prospects faced by Cameroon. The book is composed of conceptual and empirical studies of Cameroonian scholars gathered together in order to provide descriptions and explanations of the main issues as well as policy recommendations to support decisions-makers. These considerations are those of Cameroonians for Cameroon.The book is organized into two volumes. The first one, entitled “Governance and Businesses”, is devoted to issues relating to public governance, investment climate, insecurity, globalization, business development, and activities that are sources of employment in Cameroon. The second volume, entitled “Environment and People”, deals with issues concerning the management of cross cutting economic services, the conservation of forests, the sustainable development of agricultural activities, the role of women, the immobility of workers, problems of development and poverty alleviation, millennium development goals, the performance of microfinance institutions, multilingualism, and education in Cameroon.

This paper investigates whether Burkinabe maize farmers’ fertilizer-use decisionsare correlated with their risk and time preferences. We conducted a survey and a se-ries of hypothetical experiments on a sample of 1,500 farmers. We find that morepatient farmers do use more fertilizer, but it is only because they plant more maize (afertilizer-intensive crop) rather than because they use more fertilizer per hectare ofmaize planted. Conversely, we find no statistically significant link between risk aver-sion and fertilizer use. We use a simple two-period model, which suggests that riskaversion may indeed have an ambiguous effect on fertilizer use.

The analysis of food price volatility is really important in economics. Understanding why do prices evolve as they do and explaining what are the sources of price variations is a central question for economies worldwide, and especially for African economies. Indeed, food price volatility often appears as one of the fundamental characteristics of agricultural markets. Thus, without such information, forecasting price evolutions is very difficult and providing adequate recommendations to policy-makers becomes a challenge. The objective of this chapter is, on the one hand, to explain the various theoretical views of the determinants of food price volatility in the economic literature and, on the other hand, to measure food price volatility in Cameroon as well as to find out factors that influence this volatility. Specifically, the chapter analyses the trajectory of food price series and identifies the determinants of their fluctuations by using an ARMA, an ARMA-X, a GARCH, and a GARCH-X model. Unlike previous studies, we assume that food price volatility on Cameroonian markets is the result of domestic/local factors as well as external factors coming from the world market.Two main results have been found. First, although there is a general tendency to assert that food price volatility has increased over time, we were unable to confirm this hypothesis. One potential explanation relies on the fact that imported cereals have many potential substitutes in Cameroon. Second, food price volatility in Cameroon is mostly determined by local/domestic factors such as price volatility of other agricultural and non-agricultural products, and not by external factors such as price volatility of crude oil or imported cereals, as well as by specific political events to this country, but not by the 2008 food crisis; suggesting the existence of a low price transmission between international and Cameroonian markets. Consequently, the three recommendations aiming at policy-makers to reduce the impacts of food price volatility in Cameroon are the development and improvement of existing development programs or the implementation of specific projects supporting local food production that are substitute to imported food commodities such as local cereals or roots and tubers; the control of fuel price fluctuations in the country and the improvement of transport infrastructure; and the following of price behavior patterns of 3 commodities out of 7 and 3 markets out of 5 to have a good understanding on what is going on in Cameroon regarding food price fluctuations and volatility.

We use recently available Chinese data from 2005m1 to 2016m2 to examine the impact of monetary policy on agricultural price using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005). Results show the superiority of a FAVAR model with three variables and three factors over other specifications. Impulse response functions show that both money supply and interest rate have no impact on agricultural price in the long-run (beyond 50 months). However, results indicate the considerable short-run impact of monetary policy on agricultural price. According to forecasting error variance decompositions, the interest rate could account more for the fluctuations in agricultural price than the money supply.

We investigate whether the fluctuations of agricultural output prices may be a contributing factor to the low level of production intensification in developing countries. We analyze the specific effect of maize price risks on fertilizer use decisions in Burkina Faso, distinguishing between the predictable (trends and seasonality for example) and unpredictable (volatility) components of price fluctuations. By introducing these two components into Isik (2002)'s framework, we establish that both are theoretically expected to decrease fertilizer use. We conduct an empirical assessment of our model applied to the maize sector in Burkina Faso, by combining a database on local cereal markets and a panel database on farm households’ production choices over the 2009-2011 period. We control for individual assets and access to fertilizers, and we establish that: higher maize prices increase fertilizer use; unpredictable maize price fluctuations decrease the level of fertilizer use; while predictable maize price fluctuations have no significant effect on fertilizer use. Our results suggest that policy-makers should focus on output price volatility, as a factor which may impede the intensification of agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This report shows how competition policy can help African countries boost inclusive and sustainable development. Prepared by the World Bank Group (WBG) in partnership with the African Competition Forum, the study reviews the implementation of competition frameworks in Africa and examines competition issues that affect market performance in three important sectors for Africa's competitiveness: cement, fertilizers, and telecoms. It uses the WBG's Markets and Competition Policy Assessment Tool to identify how competition rule and their enforcement could be made more effective, and to highlight economic and regulatory characteristics of cement, fertilizers and telecoms markets that dampen competition and increase the risk of anticompetitive business practices. Conservative estimates put forward by this report suggest that addressing weak competition in principle staple foods across three countries would have the effect of lifting around 500,000 people above the poverty line by lowering consumer prices. Fundamental market reforms to increase competition in key input services would also boost economic growth. For example, professional services reforms would deliver an additional 0.16–0.43 percent of additional annual gross domestic product growth. While the benefits of competition are clearly observable in Africa, considerable effort is still required to ensure effective implementation of competition laws and incorporation of competition principles in government policies.

After 2005, commodity prices experienced their longest and broadest boom since World War II. Agricultural prices have now come down considerably since their 2011 peak, but are still 40 percent higher in real terms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses the main arguments on the causes of the agricultural price cycle. It broadens the scope of analysis by focusing on six agricultural commodities, and identifies the relative weights of key quantifiable drivers of their prices. It concludes that increases in real income negatively affect real agricultural prices, as predicted by Engel's Law. Energy prices matter most (not surprisingly, given the energy-intensive nature of agriculture), followed by stock-to-use ratios and, to a lesser extent, exchange rate movements. The cost of capital affects prices only marginally, probably because it not only influences demand, but also evokes a supply response.

This paper examines the effects of market integration on household consumption using data on seven food and two energy markets across South Sudan. The analysis reveals that markets in South Sudan are highly segmented. Price differences for narrowly defined products, across cities exceed in some cases 100 percent. In addition, price volatility increased substantially following the imposition of the trade restrictions with Sudan. This increase tends to hurt disproportionately the poor, who cannot smooth purchasing decisions over time because of liquidity constraints. Transportation costs explain almost half of the variation in food prices across space, and improving the quality of roads has a large potential to reduce prices in the most expensive towns. On the basis of this price effect, the simulations suggest that bringing all road quality across states to that of primary roads can yield a reduction in poverty from the rate of 51.7 percent in 2009 to between 42.8 and 46.9 percent. These estimates have to be interpreted as conservative, as they do not take into account the second-order effects of road construction from increased trade that will result from better road connectivity.

Thirty years ago, a vast share of low- and middle-income countries was heavily state controlled. The liberalizations of the 1980s and 1990s had greatly different effects on growth in countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. A comparative framework is used to document these differences, and a model is developed to formally analyze how liberalization affects production and income distribution when the institutions that govern production and exchange are also affected. Hypotheses are derived for how endogenous institutional adjustments affect the growth response to liberalization. These insights motivate a series of explanations for the differences in performance across regions and commodities following liberalization. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

This work summarizes background papers prepared for the World Bank Group with significant input from government counterparts and other development partners. It takes stock of major recent developments and argues that a lot has been achieved in the last decade in terms of production of commodities for export and food consumption, with favorable impact on rural poverty reduction. It also argues that the two factors driving the recent agricultural performance, namely favorable international prices and expansion of the agricultural frontier, have reached their limits. So while trade policies are broadly on target, much can be done by focusing on the productivity of small family agriculture and improving competitiveness by reducing transaction costs (logistics) affecting small, medium, and large commercial farms. In the short to medium term, the household income of the rural poor will continue to depend largely on agriculture. Thus interventions will need to take into account the heterogeneity of smallholder agriculture while simultaneously increasing its resilience to climate risks through climate-smart agriculture.

This paper addresses the role of market remoteness in explaining maize price volatility in Burkina Faso. A model of price formation is introduced to demonstrate formally that transport costs between urban and rural markets exacerbate maize price volatility. Empirical support is provided to the proposition by exploring an unusually rich data set of monthly maize price series across 28 markets over 2004-13. The methodology relies on an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to investigate the statistical effect of road quality and distance from urban consumption centers on maize price volatility. The analysis finds that maize price volatility is greatest in remote markets. The results also show that maize-surplus markets and markets bordering Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo have experienced more volatile prices than maize-deficit and non-bordering markets. The findings suggest that enhancing road infrastructure would strengthen the links between rural markets and major consumption centers, thereby also stabilizing maize prices.

This article examines the impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on prices in its agricultural sector. The analysis uses a new methodology to estimate nominal protection rates in China's agricultural sector before its accession to the WTO. These new measures account for differences in commodity quality within China and between China and world markets. The analysis shows that some of China's agricultural commodities are well above world market prices and others are well below. The article also assesses market integration and efficiency in China. It finds high degrees of integration between coastal and inland markets and between regional and village markets. The remarkable improvements in market performance in recent years mean that if increased imports or exports affect China's domestic price near the border, producers throughout most of China will feel the price shifts.

We analyze how a change in agricultural input price impacts the selection process and market shares in foreign markets for firms in the final agrifood good sector. To do so we develop a model with heterogeneous firms and intermediate good where input use is technologically constrained. We show that the effect of input price depends on labor productivity and fixed costs. Moreover, we show that a decrease in input price in all countries can decrease the probability to enter foreign markets, through export or horizontal foreign direct investment (HFDI). Finally, we show that the decrease of the intermediate good price always increases the share of HFDI relative to export, even if it can modify the HFDI-Export trade-off in favor of HFDI or export., Nous construisons un modèle théorique où une variation des prix agricoles (secteur intermédiaire) modifie à la fois le processus de sélection des firmes agroalimentaire (secteur final) sur les marchés étrangers, et la répartition de leurs parts de marché. En supposant que l'utilisation du bien agricole est contrainte technologiquement (processus de transformation du bien agricole en bien agroalimentaire) nous montrons que l'effet du prix agricole est une fonction du niveau de productivité de la firme agroalimentaire et des coûts fixes d'accès aux marchés étrangers. De plus, nous montrons qu'une baisse globale du prix agricole peut réduire la probabilité d'entrer sur les marchés étrangers, que ce soit via des exportations ou des Investissement Directs à l'Étranger (IDE). Enfin, nous montrons que la diminution du prix agricole augmente toujours la part des IDE par rapport aux exportations, même si l'arbitrage entre ces deux modalités peut être modifié en faveur de l'un ou de l'autre.

This study estimates the benefits that Indian farmers derive from market and weather information delivered to their mobile phones by a commercial service called Reuters Market Light (RML). We conduct a controlled randomized experiment in 100 villages of Maharashtra. Treated farmers associate RML information with a number of decisions they have made, and we find some evidence that treatment affected spatial arbitrage and crop grading. But the magnitude of these effects is small. We find no statistically significant average effect of treatment on the price received by farmers, crop value-added, crop losses resulting from rainstorms, or the likelihood of changing crop varieties and cultivation practices. Although disappointing, these results are in line with the market take-up rate of the RML service in the study districts, which shows small numbers of clients in aggregate and a relative stagnation in take-up over the study period. JEL codes: O13, Q11, Q13. The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether agricultural information distributed through mobile phones generates economic benefits to farmers. We implement a randomized controlled trial of a commercial service entitled Reuters Market Light (RML) offered by the largest and best-established private provider of agricultural price information in India at the time of the experiment. Operating in Maharashtra and other Indian states, RML distributes price, weather, and crop advisory information through SMS messages. We offered a one-year free subscription to RML to a random sample of farmers to test whether they obtain higher prices for their agricultural output.

This study aims to improve our understanding of the extent and speed of the transmission of international cereal prices to local markets in developing countries. We analyse two samples of price transmission (PT) estimates, one extracted from a comprehensive literature sample of 31 published papers and studies on cereal price transmission and one containing of own estimates of cereal PT using the FAO’s GIEWS dataset. We also present the results of a non-parametric analysis of PT in which we analyse the share of periods in which domestic and international prices have jointly increased or decreased. We find a higher share of cointegrated commodity market pairs in the literature sample (79% compared to 43%). This may be due to publication bias. Cointegration is more prevalent for maize market pairs and less prevalent for rice market pairs. Both the literature and the GIEWS-based estimates point to average long-run PT coefficients of roughly 0.75 and average short-run adjustment parameters of roughly 0.09-0.11. In most cases domestic prices adjust to deviations from the long-run price relationship, but international prices do not. The only notable exception to this rule is rice, which suggests that the determination of international rice prices differs fundamentally from the determination of international wheat and maize prices. In a subsequent meta-regression analysis we measure how much of the variation in the samples of PT estimates can be explained by country- or product-specific factors. However, this analysis fails to generate compelling results. An analysis of domestic price volatility reveals that median volatility has increased since July 2007.

This study examines the dynamic relationship between world oil prices and twenty four world agricultural commodity prices accounting for changes in the relative strength of US dollar in a panel setting. We employ panel cointegration and Granger causality methods for a panel of twenty four agricultural products based on monthly prices ranging from January 1980 to February 2010. The empirical results provide strong evidence on the impact of world oil price changes on agricultural commodity prices. Contrary to the findings of many studies in the literature that report neutrality of agricultural prices to oil price changes, we find strong support for the role of world oil prices on prices of several agricultural commodities. The positive impact of a weak dollar on agricultural prices is also confirmed. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

The report is organized into nine chapters. Chapter one provides the introduction to the report. Chapter two presents alternative approaches to agribusiness development and chapter three discusses the role of agribusiness incubators. Chapter four discusses the challenges of agribusiness incubators and chapter five presents a typology of agribusiness incubators. Chapter six elaborates on the evolution of incubators over time. Chapter seven presents the analysis of impact and cost-benefits. Chapter eight summarizes good practices and lessons learned. Chapter nine presents the recommendations.

International audience; Soaring agricultural prices in 2007/2008, followed by decreasing prices in 2009/2010 then a new surge in late 2010/ 2011, have placed the management of agricultural price volatility at the heart of policy debates. Many developing countries have implemented policies to limit agricultural price volatility and its adverse effects, without always achieving the expected results. Analysis of recent experiences in Africa shows that in order to be effective, a policy measure must meet four conditions: it must be based on robust knowledge; it must be predictable; its funding must be secured; and its enforcement must be monitored.; La flambée des prix des produits agricoles de 2007/2008, suivie d'une baisse en 2009/2010, puis d'une nouvelle hausse en 2010/2011, a placé la gestion de l'instabilité des prix agricoles au coeur des débats politiques. De nombreux pays en développement ont mis en oeuvre des politiques pour limiter l'instabilité des prix agricoles et ses effets préjudiciables, sans toujours atteindre les résultats escomptés. L'analyse d'expériences récentes en Afrique montre que, pour être efficace, chaque mesure politique suppose de satisfaire quatre conditions : elle doit s'appuyer sur des connaissances solides ; elle doit être prévisible ; son financement doit être assuré ; et sa mise en oeuvre contrôlée.

The approach taken in this report reflects the view of the collaborating international organizations that price volatility and its effects on food security is a complex issue with many dimensions, agricultural and non-agricultural, short and long-term, with highly differentiated impacts on consumers and producers in developed and developing countries. The report begins with a discussion of volatility and of the ways in which volatility affects countries, businesses, consumers and farmers. Lessons learned from recent experiences are briefly reviewed as well as the factors determining likely levels of volatility in future. This report offers suggestions for a systematic and internationally coordinated response building on the lessons learned as a result of the 2007-2008crisis. It is important to distinguish between policy options designed to prevent or reduce price volatility and those designed to mitigate its consequences. Both types of intervention are explored in detail. Scope is identified for actions at individual, national, regional and international level. Some would help to avert a threat; others are in the nature of contingency plans to improve readiness, while still others address long-term issues of resilience. Finally, the report explores mechanisms of international cooperation to implement this report's recommendations and to monitor progress.

The quantitative of wine produced worldwide in the 2010-2011 harvest was much less than in the previous one. Despite that, there was an upturn in volumes exported, and in global wine consumption. For the first time in fifteen years, the growth in exports has come from the 27-member European Union, not the southern hemisphere countries or the United States. This trend has ment lower stocks and upward presure on prices paid to producers. The global wine market remains unstable, and the benefits of the new European wine growing and wine making policy have yet to make themselves felt.

Également édité en anglais; La production mondiale vinifiée de la campagne 2010-2011 est restée à des niveaux bien inférieurs à ceux de la campagne précédente. Malgré cela, les exportations en volume et la consommation mondiale de vin ont enregistré une reprise. Pour la première fois depuis une quinzaine d’années, la progression des exportations est le fait des pays de l’UE à 27 et non plus celui des pays de l’hémisphère Sud et des Etats-Unis. Ces tendances induisent une baisse des stocks et une pression à la hausse des prix payés à la production. L’instabilité du marché mondial du vin se poursuit et les effets positifs de la nouvelle politique vitivinicole européenne tardent à se faire sentir.

International audience; Soaring agricultural prices in 2007/2008, followed by decreasing prices in 2009/2010 then a new surge in late 2010/ 2011, have placed the management of agricultural price volatility at the heart of policy debates. Many developing countries have implemented policies to limit agricultural price volatility and its adverse effects, without always achieving the expected results. Analysis of recent experiences in Africa shows that in order to be effective, a policy measure must meet four conditions: it must be based on robust knowledge; it must be predictable; its funding must be secured; and its enforcement must be monitored.; La flambée des prix des produits agricoles de 2007/2008, suivie d'une baisse en 2009/2010, puis d'une nouvelle hausse en 2010/2011, a placé la gestion de l'instabilité des prix agricoles au coeur des débats politiques. De nombreux pays en développement ont mis en oeuvre des politiques pour limiter l'instabilité des prix agricoles et ses effets préjudiciables, sans toujours atteindre les résultats escomptés. L'analyse d'expériences récentes en Afrique montre que, pour être efficace, chaque mesure politique suppose de satisfaire quatre conditions : elle doit s'appuyer sur des connaissances solides ; elle doit être prévisible ; son financement doit être assuré ; et sa mise en oeuvre contrôlée.

Oil prices are thought to have direct effect on agricultural prices followed by an indirect effect through the exchange rate. This paper examines the short- and long-run interdependence between world oil prices, lira-dollar exchange rate, and individual agricultural commodity prices (wheat, maize, cotton, soybeans, and sunflower) in Turkey. To this end, the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach and generalized impulse-response analysis for identification of the long- and short-run interrelationships are applied to the monthly data spanning from January 1994 to March 2010. The impulse-response analysis suggests the Turkish agricultural prices do not significantly react to oil price and exchange rate shocks in the short-run. The long-run causality analysis reveals that the changes in oil prices and appreciation/depreciation of the Turkish lira are not transmitted to agricultural commodity prices in Turkey. Hence, our results support neutrality of agricultural commodity markets in Turkey to both direct and indirect effects of oil price changes. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

The effects of the exchange rate, the U.S. agricultural price, the domestic income, and the interest rate on the U.S. net farm income are investigated in a cointegration framework. For this purpose, the Phillips-Hansen fully-modified cointegration (FM-OLS) procedure is applied to annual data for the period 1957–2008. Results suggest that there exists the long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. net farm income and the selected macroeconomic variables. We also find that the exchange rate and U.S. agricultural price are more important than other variables in determining the U.S. net farm income.

This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agricultural and other trade distortions using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture will increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day) slightly and by almost 1 percent if other goods trade is also liberalized; but the number of people living on less than $2 a day will fall by almost 1 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while South Asia where half of the world's poor reside will experience an increase in extreme (but not moderate) poverty incidence due to high rates of protection afforded to its unskilled labor-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes also are projected to be mild, but again exhibit a strong regional pattern: inequality falls in Latin America, which is characterized by high initial inequality, and rises in South Asia, has relatively low income inequality.