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An optimization model was used to gain insight into cost‐effective monitoring plans for aflatoxins along the maize supply chain. The model was based on a typical Dutch maize chain, with maize grown in the Black Sea region, and transported by ship to the Netherlands for use as an ingredient in compound feed for dairy cattle. Six different scenarios, with different aflatoxin concentrations at harvest and possible aflatoxin production during transport, were used. By minimizing the costs and using parameters such as the concentration, the variance of the sampling plan, and the monitoring and replacement costs, the model optimized the control points (CPs; e.g., after harvest, before or after transport by sea ship), the number of batches sampled at the CP, and the number of samples per batch. This optimization approach led to an end‐of‐chain aflatoxin concentration below the predetermined limit. The model showed that, when postharvest aflatoxin production was not possible, it was most cost‐effective to collect samples from all batches and replace contaminated batches directly after the harvest, since the replacement costs were the lowest at the origin of the chain. When there was aflatoxin production during storage, it was most cost‐effective to collect samples and replace contaminated batches after storage and transport to avoid the duplicate before and after monitoring and replacement costs. Further along the chain a contaminated batch is detected, the more stakeholders are involved, the more expensive the replacement costs and possible recall costs become.

Insects have tremendous potential for utilising the waste generated from other agricultural sectors to produce high value protein. The by-product of insect production, insect waste streams, can be recycled and repurposed for promoting the health of crops and soil as the chitin, present in the moulted skins, acts as a substrate for beneficial microbes that aid in plant protection. However, because insect waste streams are currently in the research and development phase, little information regarding its potential as a crop and soil health promoter is available. To address this information gap, this research explores experts’ knowledge of the characteristics and application of insect waste streams as a crop and soil health promoter. To conduct this research, a two-step expert elicitation approach was used consisting of semi-structured interviews followed by a Delphi study. Interviews were conducted with six experts. Topics arising from the interviews that produced conflicting expert opinions were tested in the Delphi study. Fourteen experts participated in the Delphi study in an attempt to reach an agreement on these topics. The results of this research indicate that insect waste streams could be produced as a granulate-type compost, seed coating, or impregnated into a biodegradable seedling cup. To use insect waste streams, farmers should apply it next to the roots of each plant during the time of planting. Experts were unable to reach an agreement on some topics (e.g. dosage recommendations and expected yield changes). A brief discussion of insect waste streams’ legal context is also provided. The results of this research contribute the first description of insect waste streams as a crop and soil health promoter. Such results serve as a tool to potentially aid in its uptake thus progressing towards circular agriculture.

The book takes on a systematic treatment of dynamic decision making and performance measurement. The analytical foundations of the dynamic production technology are introduced and developed in detail for several primal representations of the technology with an emphasis on dynamic directional distance functions. Dynamic cost minimization and dynamic profit maximization are developed for primal and dual representations of the dynamic technology. A dynamic production environment can be characterized as one where current production decisions impact future production possibilities. Consequently, the dynamic perspective of production relationships necessarily involves the close interplay between stock and flow elements in the transformation process and how current decisions impact the changes in future stocks. Stock elements in the production transformation process can involve physical elements that can be effectively employed in the transformation process, which can include the stock of technical knowledge and expertise available to the decision maker during the decision period. The dynamic generalization of concepts measuring the production structure (e.g., economies of scale, economies of scope, capacity utilization) and performance (e.g., allocative, scale and technical inefficiency, productivity) are developed from primal and dual perspectives. As an important source of productivity growth, production efficiency analysis is the subject of countless studies. Yet, theoretical and empirical studies focusing on production efficiency have ignored typically the time interdependence of production decisions and the adjustment paths of the firm over time. The empirical implementation of these production and performance measures is developed at length for both nonparametric and econometric approaches.

Early 2013, high concentrations of aflatoxin M1 were found in the bulk milk of a few dairy farms in the Netherlands. These high concentrations were caused by aflatoxin B1 contaminated maize from Eastern Europe that was processed into compound feed, which was fed to dairy cows. Since the contamination was discovered in the downstream stages of the supply chain, multiple countries and parties were involved and recalls of the feed were necessary, resulting into financial losses. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct short-term financial losses related to the 2013 aflatoxin incident for the maize traders, the feed industry, and the dairy sector in the Netherlands. First, the sequence of events of the incident was retrieved. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model was built to combine the scarce and uncertain data to estimate the direct financial losses for each stakeholder. The estimated total direct financial losses of this incident were estimated to be between 12 and 25 million euros. The largest share, about 60%, of the total losses was endured by the maize traders. About 39% of the total losses were for the feed industry, and less than 1% of the total losses were for the dairy sector. The financial losses estimated in this study should be interpreted cautiously due to limitations associated with the quality of the data used. Furthermore, this incident led to indirect long-term financial effects, identified but not estimated in this study.

The presence of hazards (e.g., contaminants, pathogens) in food/feed, water, plants, or animals can lead to major economic losses related to human and animal health or the rejection of batches of food or feed. Monitoring these hazards is important but can lead to high costs. This study aimed to find the most cost-effective sampling and analysis (S&A) plan in the cases of the mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) in a wheat batch and aflatoxins (AFB1 ) in a maize batch. An optimization model was constructed, maximizing the number of correct decisions for accepting/rejecting a batch of cereals, with a budget as major constraint. The decision variables were the choice of the analytical method: instrumental method (e.g., liquid chromatography combined with mass-spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)), enzyme-linked-immuno-assay (ELISA), or lateral flow devices (LFD), the number of incremental samples collected from the batch, and the number of aliquots analyzed. S&A plans using ELISA showed to be slightly more cost effective than S&A plans using the other two analytical methods. However, for DON in wheat, the difference between the optimal S&A plans using the three different analytical methods was minimal. For AFB1 in maize, the cost effectiveness of the S&A plan using instrumental methods or ELISA were comparable whereas the S&A plan considering onsite detection with LFDs was least cost effective. In case of nonofficial controls, which do not have to follow official regulations for sampling and analysis, onsite detection with ELISA for both AFB1 in maize and DON in wheat, or with LFDs for DON in wheat, could provide cost-effective alternatives.

This study reviews the methods used to determine the cost-effectiveness of monitoring plans for hazards in animals (diseases), plants (pests), soil, water, food, and animal feed, and assesses their applicability to food safety hazards. The review describes the strengths and weaknesses of each method, provides examples of different applications, and concludes with comments about their applicability to food safety. A systematic literature search identified publications assessing the cost-effectiveness of monitoring plans in the life sciences. Publications were classified into 4 groups depending on their subject: food safety, environmental hazards, animal diseases, or pests. Publications were reviewed according to the type of model and input data used, and the types of costs included. Three types of models were used: statistical models, simulation models, and optimization models. Input data were either experimental, historical, or simulated data. Publications differed according to the costs included. More than half the publications only included monitoring costs, whereas other publications included monitoring and management costs, or all costs and benefits. Only a few publications were found in the food safety category and all were relatively recent studies. This suggests that cost-effectiveness analysis of monitoring strategies in food safety is just starting and more research is needed to improve the cost-effectiveness of monitoring hazards in foods.

When designing effective voluntary vaccination strategies against animal disease epidemics, policy-makers need to take into account that different groups of farmers base their participation decisions on different considerations. Using the past Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic of 2006–2009 in Europe as an example, this paper uses the Reasoned Action Approach to identify a set of attitudinal beliefs being the major drivers behind the intended decision to participate in voluntary vaccination. The results show that there is heterogeneity among farmers in these beliefs. In particular, perceived risk, which was captured by a risk attitude and a risk perception of the farmer, and personality traits are associated with variability in beliefs about vaccination against Bluetongue. The patterns found between perceived risk, personality traits and other farm and farmer characteristics were discussed in relation to the governance of animal health.

Recently developed innovations may improve the economic and environmental sustainability of pig production systems. Generic models are needed to assess the impact of innovations on farm performance. Here we developed a stochastic bio-economic farm model for a typical farrow-to-finish pig farm to assess the impact of innovations on private and social profits. The model accounts for emissions of greenhouse gases from feed production and manure by using the shadow price of CO2, and for stochasticity of economic and biological parameters. The model was applied to assess the impact of using locally produced alternative feed sources (i.e. co-products) in the diets of finishing pigs on private and social profits of a typical Brazilian farrow-to-finish pig farm. Three cases were defined: a reference case (with a standard corn–soybean meal-based finishing diet), a macauba case (with a macauba kernel cake-based finishing diet) and a co-products case (with a co-products-based finishing diet). Pigs were assumed to be fed to equal net energy intakes in the three cases. Social profits are 34% to 38% lower than private profits in the three cases. Private and social profits are about 11% and 14% higher for the macauba case than the reference case, whereas they are 3% and 7% lower for the co-products case, respectively. Environmental costs are higher under the alternative cases than the reference case suggesting that other benefits (e.g. costs and land use) should be considered to utilize co-products. The CV of farm profits is between 75% and 87% in the three cases following from the volatility of prices over time and variations in biological parameters between fattening pigs.

Food safety monitoring faces the challenge of tackling multiple chemicals along the various stages of the food supply chain. Our study developed a methodology for optimizing sampling for monitoring multiple chemicals along the dairy supply chain. We used a mixed integer nonlinear programming approach to maximize the performance of the sampling in terms of reducing the risk of the potential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in the population. Decision variables are the number of samples collected and analyzed at each stage of the food chain (feed mills, dairy farms, milk trucks, and dairy processing plants) for each chemical, given a predefined budget. The model was applied to the case of monitoring for aflatoxin B1/M1(AFB1/M1) and dioxins in a hypothetical Dutch dairy supply chain, and results were calculated for various contamination scenarios defined in terms of contamination fraction and concentrations. Considering various monitoring budgets for both chemicals, monitoring for AFB1/M1 showed to be more effective than for dioxins in most of the considered scenarios, because AFB1/M1 could result into more DALYs than dioxins when both chemicals are in same contamination fraction, and costs for analyzing one AFB1/M1 sample are lower than for one dioxins sample. The results suggest that relatively more resources be spent on monitoring AFB1/M1 when both chemicals’ contamination fractions are low; when both contamination fractions are higher, relatively more budget should be addressed to monitoring dioxins.

The aim of the present study was to explore the relation between both farm performance and antimicrobial use (AMU) of broiler farms. Farm performance was expressed as technical efficiency, obtained by using a bootstrap data envelopment analysis. AMU was expressed as treatment incidence. Cluster analysis is used to obtain groups of farms with similar characteristics regarding technical farm performance and AMU. Results indicate that the farms within the different clusters combine different technical farm performance and different levels of AMU. Between the clusters, significant differences were found in technical farm performance, AMU, the resource intensity of the number of animals at set-up, the number of antimicrobial treatments, the number of antimicrobial treatments related to either gut health or combined problems, and the number of antimicrobial treatments with either yellow or orange active substances. Farmers who combine high levels of AMU with high technical farm performance are likely to overestimate the real economic value of AMU. Proper coordination between the farmer and the veterinarian can be crucial in that case for reducing AMU. Farms with low performance are likely to have poor farm conditions. Improving those farm conditions can help reducing the need for AMU on this kind of farms. The farm-specific conditions have to be considered in future policies aimed at reducing AMU in livestock production.

Infection of wheat by Fusarium species can lead to Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) and mycotoxin contamination, thereby reducing food quality and food safety, and leading to economic losses. Agronomic management through the implementation of various pre-harvest measures can reduce the probability of Fusarium spp. infection in the wheat field. To design interventions that could stimulate wheat farmers to (further) improve their agronomic management to reduce FHB, it is key to understand farmers’ behaviour towards adapting their management. The aim of this paper was to understand the intention, underlying behavioural constructs, and beliefs of Dutch wheat farmers to adapt their agronomic management to reduce FHB and mycotoxin contamination in wheat, applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Data were collected from 100 Dutch wheat farmers via a questionnaire. The standard TPB analysis was extended with an assessment of the robustness of the belief results to account for the statistical validity of the analysis on TPB beliefs (i.e. to address the so-called expectancy-value muddle). Forty-six percent of the farmers had a positive intention to change their management in the next 5 years. The two behavioural constructs significantly related to this intention were attitude and social norm, whereas association with the perceived behavioural control construct was insignificant indicating that farmers did not perceive any barriers to change their behaviour. Relevant attitudinal beliefs indicated specific attributes of wheat, namely yield, quality and safety (lower mycotoxin contamination). This indicates that strengthening these beliefs—by demonstrating that a change in management will result in a higher yield and quality and lower mycotoxin levels—will result in a stronger attitude and, subsequently, a higher intention to change management. Interventions to strengthen these beliefs should preferably go by the most important referents for social norms, which were the buyers and the farmer cooperatives in this study.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global threat for both human and animal health. One of the main drivers of antimicrobial resistance is inappropriate antimicrobial use in livestock production. The aim of this study was to examine the technical and economic impact of tailor-made interventions, aimed at reducing antimicrobial use in broiler production. Historical (i.e., before intervention) and observational (i.e., after intervention) data were collected at 20 broiler farms. Results indicate that average daily gain and mortality generally increased after intervention, whereas feed conversion and antimicrobial use decreased. Economic performance after interventions was generally higher than before the interventions. Sensitivity analyses on price changes confirm the robustness of the findings.

Understanding the context and drivers of farmers’ decision-making is critical to designing successful voluntary disease control interventions. This study uses a questionnaire based on the Reasoned Action Approach framework to assess the determinants of farmers’ intention to participate in a hypothetical reactive vaccination scheme against Bluetongue. Results suggest that farmers’ attitude and social pressures best explained intention. A mix of policy instruments can be used in a complementary way to motivate voluntary vaccination based on the finding that participation is influenced by both internal and external motivation. Next to informational and incentive-based instruments, social pressures, which stem from different type of perceived norms, can spur farmers' vaccination behaviour and serve as catalysts in voluntary vaccination schemes.

Labor costs did not significantly change after investment in sensor systems on dairy farms.No technical change took place after investment in sensor systems.There was no change in productivity after investment in sensor systems on dairy farms. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of investment in sensor systems on productivity change, using farm accounting data.Farm accounting data for the years 2008-2013 was available for 217 Dutch dairy farms. In addition, information was available on the adoption of sensor systems on these farms. For each farm, 5 input variables (number of dairy cows, number of hectares, total capital costs, total variable costs, and total labor costs) and 1 output variable (total revenues) were defined for each year. The Malmquist Total Factor Productivity index was used to examine productivity change for three categories of farms: farms without sensor systems, farms with sensor systems at an automatic milking system, and farms with sensor systems at a conventional milking system. The Malmquist index measures how the productivity of an individual farm changes over time and enables the contributions of technical change and technical efficiency change to be identified.Productivity did not change after investment in sensor systems on dairy farms. Furthermore, no technical change was found after investment in sensor systems, suggesting that the potential technological improvement claimed by producers of sensor systems does not materialize on dairy farms. Providing more information and guidance on how to use the output of sensor systems might improve the technical performance of the farms.

Economic values (EVs) of traits, accounting for environmental impacts and risk preferences of farmers, are required to design breeding goals that contribute to both economic and environmental sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of incorporating environmental costs and the risk preferences of farmers on the EVs of pig breeding goal traits. A breeding goal consisting of both sow efficiency and production traits was defined for a typical Brazilian farrow‐to‐finish pig farm with 1,500 productive sows. A mean‐variance utility function was employed for deriving the EVs at finishing pig level assuming fixed slaughter weight. The inclusion of risk and risk aversion reduces the economic weights of sow efficiency traits (17%) while increasing the importance of production traits (7%). For a risk‐neutral producer, inclusion of environmental cost reduces the economic importance of sow efficiency traits (3%) while increasing the importance of production traits (1%). Genetic changes of breeding goal traits by their genetic standard deviations reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and excretions of nitrogen and phosphorus per finished pig by up to 6% while increasing farm profit. The estimated EVs could be used to improve selection criteria and thereby contribute to the sustainability of pig production systems.

According to the International Plant Protection Convention and the World Trade Organization Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures, any measure against the introduction and spread of new pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis. Economic impact assessments are usually carried out using a qualitative approach, based on classifying the size of impact into five categories, from “minimal” to “massive”. Whilst the qualitative approach may be adequate in many instances, it lacks transparency and demonstrable objectivity. A quantitative approach for economic impact assessment may improve transparency and strengthen the justification for measures, if taken, but requires additional work, and it requires specific data and models. This paper, first, compares the strengths and weaknesses of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Second, it clarifies the data and models needed to conduct a quantitative economic impact assessment to support a decision on the pest quarantine status or justify management measures. Third, it identifies the criteria for choosing the appropriate level of complexity, regarding the resolution, economic technique and time frame of the quantitative approach. The greater transparency and objectivity of the quantitative vis-a-vis qualitative economic impact assessment may enhance plant health policy and decision making at national and international regulatory bodies. However, uncertainties that are inherent to this approach may weaken this position. Hence, PRAs require a mixture of quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing impacts and the exact balance of the two has to be case-specific.

This paper provides a retrospective look at a systems-oriented research program, on the increasing occurrence of parasitic weeds in rainfed rice in sub-Saharan Africa, to qualitatively assess merits and identify challenges of such approach. We gained a broad contextual overview of the problem and different stakeholders' roles, which enabled identification of entry points for innovations in parasitic weed management. At the crop level parasitic weed infestation is associated with poor soil fertility and water management. Farmers' infrequent use of inputs to control them was caused by various factors, ranging from fears of undesired side effects (agronomic) to a lack of quality control of products (institutional). Furthermore, there may be enough extension agents, but they lack the required training on (parasitic) weed management to provide farmers with advice, while their organizations do not provide them with the necessary means for farm visits. At even higher organizational levels we observed a lack of coherent policies on parasitic weed control and implementation of them. Merits and challenges of an integrated multi-stakeholder and multi-level research project are discussed.

This study compared the economic feasibility of production systems with different levels of animal welfare (AW) in the broiler, laying hen, and fattening pig sectors. Economic feasibility over a five-year time horizon was assessed using stochastic bio-economic simulation models. The results suggest that the main determinant of economic feasibility in each sector is the producer price. It is not only the level of the price premium but also the certainty and variability of this premium that is important in the decision to convert to an alternative system. From the perspective of the farm, different approaches should be followed in the three sectors to further develop the market for products with higher levels of AW. The results imply that the broiler sector has the best perspective in the short to medium term for developing this market. In the fattening pig sector, conversion options should be made more financially attractive, for example by increasing price premiums or providing conversion subsidies. The laying hen sector has the worst prospects for improving AW in the short to medium term. Therefore, given the current production systems in this sector, producer price premiums need to be increased in order to increase the adoption of alternative production systems.

The structure of livestock production is subject to driving forces that alter veterinary and economic risks of contagious livestock diseases. Insight into changes in this structure is thus important for veterinary contingency planning. The objective of this paper was to explore changes in future production structure features within the cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL), North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (LS) projected towards 2020 using the Policy Delphi method. Additionally, the findings of this study were elaborated in terms of possible implications for contagious livestock disease introduction, spread and control. Experts expected a sharp reduction in the number of farms, a sharp increase in farm size and regional concentration of livestock production, especially in NL. Increases in cross-border trade were expected, particularly in the pig sector, resulting in intensified mutual cross-border production dependency in most sectors. The cross-border region of NL-NRW-LS becomes, therefore, increasingly a single epidemiological area in which disease introduction is a shared veterinary and, consequently, economic risk. This situation results in increased need for collaboration among NL-NRW-LS to improve the joint prevention and control of contagious livestock diseases. It is concluded that veterinary policy makers should proactively anticipate these future changes in the production structure of livestock.

Decisions related to animal welfare (AW) standards depend on farmer’s multiple goals and values and are constrained by a wide range of external and internal forces. The aim of this paper is twofold, i.e., (1) to develop a theoretical framework for farmers’ AW decisions that incorporates farmers’ goals, use and non-use values and (2) to present an approach to empirically implement the theoretical framework. The farmer as a head of the farm household makes choices regarding production to maximize the utility of the household. The overall utility of the farmer is determined by his multiple objectives. For the analysis of multi-objective problems, the multiple criteria decision-making paradigm provides an appropriate theoretical framework. However, theories from the field of social-psychology are needed to facilitate the identification of all relevant aspects in the decision making (i.e., factors that explain behavior). The practical use of the conceptual framework is demonstrated using a simple numerical application of a multi-objective programming model. Two workshops were devoted to examining the scientific consistency and the practical usefulness of the approach. Implementing this approach will increase knowledge of the main factors and barriers that determine farmers’ decisions with regard to AW standards. This knowledge is relevant during the development of new AW concepts that aims to supply products that comply with above-legal AW standards for middle-market segments.

The resource-based view of the firm suggests that intangible assets have a positive impact on firm performance. This study examined the relation between intangible assets and technical efficiency of textile and clothing firms. A double bootstrap data envelopment analysis approach was used to measure and explain technical efficiency. The empirical application used a data-set of the textile and clothing industry over the period 1995–2004 with a worldwide coverage. The results show that intangible assets had a positive relation with technical efficiency of the textile and clothing firms. Debt and membership of EU had a negative relation, whereas size, membership of NAFTA, and GDP per capita were positively related with technical efficiency.

This study used a stochastic bioeconomic simulation model to simulate the business and financial risk of different broiler production systems over a 5-yr period. Simulation analysis was conducted using the @Risk add-in in MS Excel. To compare the impact of different production systems on economic feasibility, 2 cases were considered. The first case focused on the economic feasibility of a completely new system, whereas the second examined economic feasibilities when a farm switches from a conventional to an animal welfare-improving production system. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the key drivers of economic feasibility and to reveal systematic differences across production systems. The study shows that economic feasibility of systems with improved animal welfare predominantly depends on the price that farmers receive. Moreover, the study demonstrates the importance of the level and variation of the price premium for improved welfare, particularly in the first 5 yr after conversion. The economic feasibility of the production system increases with the level of welfare improvements for a sufficiently high price level for broiler meat and low volatility in producer prices. If this is not the case, however, risk attitudes of farmers become important as well as the use of potential risk management instruments.

International agreements on plant health and trade require that regulating a pest should be justified by economic impact assessment. Economic impact assessments are usually qualitative, weakening the objective and transparency of the regulation decision. This study assessed the potential economic impacts of the invasion of the plant pathogenic bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum’ into the European Union in order to economically justify a decision on its quarantine status. Direct economic impacts resulting from yield loss in potato and tomato were computed using partial budgeting at a regional scale, while total economic impacts on the potato and tomato markets were computed using partial equilibrium modelling at the EU scale. Annual direct impacts at the most likely infestation level were estimated at €222 m for the whole EU. Uncertainty analysis showed a distribution of foreseeable annual impacts with a 5th percentile of €192 m, and a 95th percentile of €512 m. Increased market prices of potato and tomato resulting from reduced supply were found to increase profits for non-infested producers and to compensate in part for the production losses of infested producers, with consumers paying for this mitigation of impacts on producers. The expected negative impact on societal welfare at the most likely infestation level is less than the estimated direct impacts, viz. €114 m/year. The potential economic impacts of ‘Ca. L. solanacearum’ in the European Union are demonstrably of major importance. Therefore, a decision to categorize this organism as a quarantine pest is supported.

In the Netherlands, outbreaks of Aujeszky's Disease (AD) are controlled by vaccination and movement restriction zones (MRZ). Although this strategy avoids the socio-ethical concerns associated with pre-emptive slaughter, it can easily result in animal welfare problems and negative economic consequences. These arise because movement restrictions result in surpluses of live (vaccinated) piglets on farms. The aim is to provide insight into the development of these surpluses and its impact and to describe how measures that allow early transportation of pigs under certain conditions and to specific destinations (channelling) could reduce these problems. For the analysis, a deterministic simulation model was developed, which calculates surpluses of piglets at multiplier farms during AD outbreaks. This is performed on a weekly basis for two areas (with and without piglet surplus), three outbreak durations (minimum, moderate and long) and three strategies for movement restrictions (strict, transports within the MRZ allowed and transports outside the MRZ allowed). The results show that in case of complete movement restrictions, surpluses of piglets varying in age and vaccination status will quickly arise. These surpluses are larger for longer epidemics and can become as large as 180-340 thousand piglets (45-75% of weekly domestic production) for moderate and long epidemics, respectively. Implementation of channelling strategies that allow earlier transportation within the MRZ can reduce surpluses by about 50% to 100-150 thousand piglets maximum. Strategies that also allow transportation outside the MRZ can reduce surpluses even further to below 100 thousand piglets. It was concluded that channelling of live piglets during AD outbreaks results in a drastic reduction of problems with accommodating ready-for-transport piglets. Moreover, it reduces shortages during movement restrictions and peak supply immediately after removing the restrictions. Channelling could therefore be an important instrument to reduce the economic and animal welfare impacts of containment measures.

The objective of this study was to develop a management information system to evaluate the tactical management of a breeder flock using individual farm analysis with a deterministic simulation model (IFAS). Individual farm analysis is a method that evaluates the performance of individual farms by comparing them with standards. In the first step of IFAS, a farm accounting system is used to compare performance indicators of a flock with the same performance indicators of the average of a group of flocks that produced in the same time period. In the next step, a deterministic simulation model is used to determine the factors causing the traced deviations in performances. Then, relevant deviations are determined based on the economic and statistical importance of each traced deviation. Finally, the deviations are identified by relevance to give farmers an indication of their strong and weak management practices.

Continuous monocropping of tobacco, excessive tillage and inadequate irrigation management have caused soil degradation in tobacco farms in the Valle de Lerma. Soil degradation due to tobacco monocropping and uncertain economic perspectives for tobacco farming call for diversification strategies for tobacco farmers. The objective of this paper is to develop useful criteria for assessing diversification activities and to provide a ranking of different diversification activities on these criteria. The Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) technique is applied to get consistent assessments of criteria and activities from experts and stakeholders. Next, goal programming methods are used to aggregate individual assessments in order to arrive at the final ranking of farming activities for diversification. The five criteria to judge production activities for tobacco diversification are contribution to income, suitability for biophysical conditions, availability of technical information, market feasibility and contribution to soil improvement. The feasibility to market the products stands out with clearly high relative weight, while the other criteria received similar weights. The obtained weights of farming activities showed that especially livestock activities and spring–summer crops are important alternatives for tobacco production. Livestock activities stand out because they have high scores on all criteria. Livestock activities and spring–summer crops will compete with tobacco for resources because tobacco is a spring–summer crop. Therefore, these activities may be more suitable for tobacco farms that operate large area of land. The results of this research can be used in optimization models for determining the optimal mix of farming activities in combination with tobacco production. Such models can provide further insights into factors determining diversification.

Automation and use of robots are increasingly being used within dairy farming and result in large amounts of real time data. This information provides a base for the new management concept of precision livestock farming. From 2003 to 2006, time series of herd mean daily milk yield were collected on 6 experimental research farms in the Netherlands. These time series were analyzed with an adaptive dynamic model following a Bayesian method to quantify the effect of heat stress. The effect of heat stress was quantified in terms of critical temperature above which heat stress occurred, duration of heat stress periods, and resulting loss in milk yield. In addition, dynamic changes in level and trend were monitored, including the estimation of a weekly pattern. Monitoring comprised detection of potential outliers and other deteriorations. The adaptive dynamic model fitted the data well; the root mean squared error of the forecasts ranged from 0.55 to 0.99kg of milk/d. The percentages of potential outliers and signals for deteriorations ranged from 5.5 to 9.7%. The Bayesian procedure for time series analysis and monitoring provided a useful tool for process control. Online estimates (based on past and present only) and retrospective estimates (determined afterward from all data) of level and trend in daily milk yield showed an almost yearly cycle that was in agreement with the calving pattern: most cows calved in winter and early spring versus summer and autumn. Estimated weekly patterns in terms of weekday effects could be related to specific management actions, such as change of pasture during grazing. For the effect of heat stress, the mean estimated critical temperature above which heat stress was expected was 17.8±0.56°C. The estimated duration of the heat stress periods was 5.5±1.03 d, and the estimated loss was 31.4±12.2kg of milk/cow per year. Farm-specific estimates are helpful to identify management factors like grazing, housing and feeding, that affect the impact of heat stress. The effect of heat stress can be decreased by modifying these factors.

World-wide, government institutions play an important role in the management of plant health. This paper develops a conceptual framework in which suppliers and demanders jointly determine the optimal level of plant health in a hypothetical market. Next this paper argues that this market falls short of reaching an optimal plant health situation due to the public good nature of plant health and due to the presence of asymmetric information. A range of commonly applied and novel solutions to this market failure are then discussed.

SUMMARYAutomated feeding and milking of dairy cows enables the application of individual cow settings for concentrate supply and milking frequency. Currently, general settings are used, based on knowledge about energy and nutrient requirements in relation to milk production at the group level. Individual settings, based on the actual individual response in milk yield, have the potential for a marked increase in economic profits. In the present study, adaptive dynamic models for online estimation of milk yield response to concentrate intake and length of milking interval are evaluated. The parameters in these models may change over time and are updated through a Bayesian approach for online analysis of time series. The main use of dynamic models lies in their ability to determine economically optimal settings for concentrate intake and milking interval length for individual cows at any day in lactation. Three adaptive dynamic models are evaluated, a model with linear terms for concentrate intake and length of milking interval, a model that also comprises quadratic terms, and an enhanced model (EM) in order to obtain more stable parameter estimates. The linear model is useful only for forecasting milk production and the estimated parameters of the quadratic model were found to be unstable. The parsimony of the EM leads to far more stable parameter estimates. It is shown that the EM is suitable for control and monitoring, and therefore promises to be a valuable tool for application within precision livestock farming.

SUMMARYThe objectives of the current study were to quantify the individual variation in daily milk yield response to concentrate intake during early lactation and to assess the economic prospects of exploiting the individual variation in milk yield response to concentrate intake. In an observational study, data from 299 cows on four farms in the first 3 weeks of the lactation were collected. Individual response in daily milk yield to concentrate intake was analysed by a random coefficient model. Marked variation in individual milk yield response to concentrate intake was found on all four farms. An economic simulation was carried out, based on the estimated parameter values in the observational study. Individual optimization of concentrate supply is compared with conventional strategies for concentrate supply based on averaged population response parameters. Applying individual economic optimal settings for concentrate supply during early lactation, potential economic gain ranges from €0·20 to €2·03/cow/day.

For nearly 30 years, technologies for more sustainable land use have been developed and promoted in Rwanda. However, these technologies have not been fully adopted. Keeping in mind that the farming population is not homogeneous with respect to socio-economic variables, this paper typifies farm households in Umutara province based on socio-economic factors influencing the adoption of new technology. A multivariate analysis approach that combines Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis allowed us to identify clearly five types of farm households and their socio-economic characteristics. The main differences between the five farm types relate to gender, age, education, risk perception, risk attitude, labour availability, land tenure and income. The five farm types are characterized by respectively having a female head (26% of the farms), being a tenant (7%), having a male and literate head (32%), having an illiterate head with no off-farm activities (18%), and being a large farm with livestock (17%). The respective farm types appeared to have adopted different types of sustainable technologies to a limited extent. Female-headed households adopted the use of compost and green manure. Young male literate farmers were the only ones using chemical fertilizers. Illiterate and full-time farmers applied fallow, manure and erosion control measures to maintain soil fertility. The use of improved livestock is adopted by large farms.

The performance of agricultural cooperatives depends on their business objectives, which are defined in different ways in the literature. We review the theoretical literature on the performance of agricultural marketing cooperatives. Studies can be divided into two classes, those that assume a single objective and those that assume multiple objectives. This classification integrates three views of the cooperatives: ( a) vertical integration of firms, ( b) independent enterprise, and ( c) coalition of firms. Empirical studies on the financial performance of cooperatives are classified into two categories, studies based on the economic theory of the firm and studies that emphasize accounting techniques. Empirical studies have failed to address the cooperatives’ objectives as represented by the theoretical literature on cooperative performance.

Plant import inspection can prevent the introduction of exotic pests and diseases, thereby averting economic losses. We explore the optimal allocation of a fixed budget, taking into account risk differentials, and the optimal-sized budget to minimise total pest costs. A partial-equilibrium market model is used to compute the economic consequences of pest invasion. An application to Dutch imports of chrysanthemum cuttings shows that the optimal allocation of a fixed inspection budget halves the cost of pest invasion compared to allocating the same budget equally over all imports. A budget increase that enables 42 per cent more inspection can reduce total societal costs by 81 per cent compared to smaller, constrained budget that ignores risk differentials. Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2009; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

In Ethiopia, use of low-quality seed potatoes by the majority of potato growers is associated with underdevelopment of the seed potato value chains. Three seed potato systems are present in Ethiopia: the informal seed system, the alternative seed system and the formal seed system. This chapter analyses the performance of seed potato value chains with respect to their ability to supply quality seed tubers to seed potato systems, by using the chain performance drivers enabling environment, technology, market structure, chain coordination, farm management, and inputs. Information obtained from literature review, secondary data and key informants’ interviews were used for the analysis. In the informal seed system, seed potato value chains suffered from a poor enabling environment such as a low quality technical support and lack of a seed quality control system; use of sub-optimal storage and transportation technologies, sub-optimal farm management practices; and little use of inputs. In the alternative seed system, main constraints were the lack of a seed potato quality control system, poor farm management practices, little use of inputs by seed potato growers, and a distorted seed potato market that resulted from involvement of institutional buyers. Chains in the formal seed potato system were characterised by little involvement of the private and public sectors in the production and supply of seed potatoes. Based on the analysis, improvement options for the three seed systems were identified.

The cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL) and the two German states of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (LS) is a large and highly integrated livestock production area. This region increasingly develops towards a single epidemiological area in which disease introduction is a shared veterinary and, consequently, economic risk. The objectives of this study were to examine classical swine fever (CSF) control strategies' veterinary and direct economic impacts for NL, NRW and LS given the current production structure and to analyse CSF's cross-border causes and impacts within the NL-NRW-LS region. The course of the epidemic was simulated by the use of InterSpread Plus, whereas economic analysis was restricted to calculating disease control costs and costs directly resulting from the control measures applied. Three veterinary control strategies were considered: a strategy based on the minimum EU requirements, a vaccination and a depopulation strategy based on NL and GER's contingency plans. Regardless of the veterinary control strategy, simulated outbreak sizes and durations for 2010 were much smaller than those simulated previously, using data from over 10 years ago. For example, worst-case outbreaks (50th percentile) in NL resulted in 30-40 infected farms and lasted for two to four and a half months; associated direct costs and direct consequential costs ranged from €24.7 to 28.6 million and €11.7 to 26.7 million, respectively. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies were efficient in controlling outbreaks, especially large outbreaks, whereas the EU minimum strategy was especially deficient in controlling worst-case outbreaks. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies resulted in low direct costs and direct consequential costs. The probability of cross-border disease spread was relatively low, and cross-border spread resulted in small, short outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Few opportunities for further cross-border harmonization and collaboration were identified, including the implementation of cross-border regions (free and diseased regions regardless of the border) in case of outbreaks within close proximity of the border, and more and quicker sharing of information across the border. It was expected, however, that collaboration to mitigate the market effects of an epidemic will create more opportunities to lower the impact of CSF outbreaks in a cross-border context.

This study aims to analyze the economic feasibility of recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) in pangasius farming in Vietnam. The study uses a capital budgeting approach and accounts for uncertainty in key parameters. Stochastic simulation is used to simulate the economic performance of medium and large farms operating with a traditional system or RAS. Data are obtained through structured surveys and a workshop in the Mekong River Delta. Results show that for large farms, net present value increases from an average of 589,000 USD/ha to 916,000 USD/ha after implementing RAS. Overall, the probability that RAS is a profitable investment is found to be 99% for both farm sizes. With RAS, the crucial parameters determining profitability are price, yield, costs of fingerling, feed, and initial investment. Findings on the robustness of the economic performance of RAS are useful to support public and private decision making towards increasing the sustainability of pangasius production.

SUMMARYDecision making on hazard surveillance in livestock product chains is a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder, and multi-criteria process that includes a variety of decision alternatives. The multi-hazard aspect means that the allocation of the scarce resource for surveillance should be optimized from the point of view of a surveillance portfolio (SP) rather than a single hazard. In this paper, we present a novel conceptual approach for economic optimization of a SP to address the resource allocation problem for a surveillance organization from a theoretical perspective. This approach uses multi-criteria techniques to evaluate the performances of different settings of a SP, taking cost-benefit aspects of surveillance and stakeholders’ preferences into account. The credibility of the approach has also been checked for conceptual validity, data needs and operational validity; the application potentials of the approach are also discussed.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a highly contagious pig disease that causes economic losses and impaired animal welfare. Improving the surveillance system for CSF can help to ensure early detection of the virus, thereby providing a better initial situation for controlling the disease. Economic analysis is required to compare the benefits of improved surveillance with the costs of implementing a more intensive system. This study presents a comprehensive economic analysis of CSF surveillance in the Netherlands, taking into account the specialized structure of Dutch pig production, differences in virulence of CSF strains and a complete list of possible surveillance activities. The starting point of the analysis is the current Dutch surveillance system (i.e. the default surveillance-setup scenario), including the surveillance activities ‘daily clinical observation by the farmer’, ‘veterinarian inspection after a call’, ‘routine veterinarian inspection’, ‘pathology in AHS’, ‘PCR on tonsil in AHS’, ‘PCR on grouped animals in CVI’ and ‘confirmatory PCR by NVWA’. Alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were proposed by adding ‘routine serology in slaughterhouses’, ‘routine serology on sow farms’ and ‘PCR on rendered animals’. The costs and benefits for applying the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were evaluated by comparing the annual mitigated economic losses because of intensified CSF surveillance with the annual additional surveillance costs. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis show that the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios with ‘PCR on rendered animals’ are effective for the moderately virulent CSF strain, whereas the scenarios with ‘routine serology in slaughterhouses’ or ‘routine serology on sow farms’ are effective for the low virulent strain. Moreover, the current CSF surveillance system in the Netherlands is cost-effective for both moderately virulent and low virulent CSF strains. The results of the cost-benefit analysis for the moderately virulent CSF strain indicate that the current surveillance system in the Netherlands is adequate. From an economic perspective, there is little to be gained from intensifying surveillance.

As of January 1st 2005, a system of reduced checks for phytosanitary inspections of certain plants and plant products imported into the European Union (EU) is in place. Under this system, plants and plant products satisfying special criteria may be inspected with a reduced frequency. These criteria are based on EU-wide data on historical volumes of import and interceptions of harmful organisms in particular products. The objective of this paper is two-fold. Firstly, the paper analyses whether proportions of interceptions of harmful organisms associated with cut flowers imported into the Netherlands ? the largest EU importer of cut flowers ? support the application of reduced checks for certain genera and trades (commodity-exporting country combinations) of cut flowers. Secondly, the paper analyses how effective the reduced checks system is in minimizing the expected costs of introduction of harmful organisms in the EU. For that, a theoretically optimal system for allocating inspection effort to commodities is described. Using an illustrative example and stochastic simulations, the expected costs of introduction of harmful organisms under the theoretically optimal system and the current system of reduced checks are compared. Examination of interceptions of harmful organisms supports application of reduced checks for most genera and trades of cut flowers in the Netherlands. The results of stochastic simulations show that reduced checks may not minimize the expected costs of introduction of harmful organisms into the EU. Accounting for possible economic impacts of harmful organisms in determining the frequencies of reduced checks may help optimize the current system

This article calculates nonparametric measures of total factor productivity growth on Dutch horticultural firms in the period 1976¿1995. Individual components of total factor productivity growth, i.e., efficiency change and technical change are regressed on socioeconomic factors reflecting the effects of the world oil crises, household and demographic characteristics, location, and investment in physical capital. Also, the article investigates the presence of inter-sector spill-overs between groups of firms with different specializations in Dutch horticulture

Diversification is often seen as a risk management tool, but specialization allows operators to exploit scale economies in single outputs and offers specialized operators more opportunities to fine-tune their skills which can promote a greater degree of technical proficiency. Measuring economies of scope facilitates the assessment of the benefits from output diversification versus specialization for operators and provides a metric for explaining and predicting trends towards specialization or diversification. However, the current literature on economies of scope provides little insight into the potential trade-off between the benefits of diversification and the presence of inefficiency in production and decision making. To remedy this shortcoming, this paper develops a measure of an effective (or behavioral) measure of scope economies which measures the benefits of diversification accounting for the contributions of allocative, congestion and technical efficiency in scaling the perfectly efficient version of scope economies. The application focuses on measuring and explaining economies of scope on Dutch crop farms.

Dutch greenhouse horticulture firms are energy-intensive and major emitters of greenhouse gases. This paper develops a theoretically consistent model that is able to describe the greenhouse firms’ behaviour regarding energy use and investments in energy technology. The behaviour of the firm is modelled using a combination of a dynamic cost function and a static profit function framework. The optimal quantity of energy is derived from the link between these two functions. The model is applied to a panel of 97 Dutch greenhouse firms over the period 2001–2008. The results show that most Dutch greenhouse firms shift from being net electricity users to net electricity producers in the long term. Investing in energy capital contributes to reducing net energy use, however it increases the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions due to an increase in electricity production. A 1 % increase of the price of gas reduces carbon dioxide emissions by 1.6 %.

Decision making in companies requires an assessment of the efficiency and productivity of individual inputs to provide insights into the scope for improvement of inputs' use. This paper estimates an input-specific Luenberger productivity growth indicator that can be decomposed to identify the contributions of input-specific technological change, technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change. These components for a specific input sum up to the aggregated indicators which are then compared with the traditional Luenberger indicator. The application focuses on panel data of Spanish and Portuguese construction firms over the period 2002-2011, accounting for three inputs: materials, labor and capital. The results show that aggregated productivity change and its components computed from the input-specific productivity indicator are different from those obtained using a traditional approach. The results also indicate that productivity change is negative for labor and capital for construction firms in both Spain and Portugal, while productivity change of materials is positive for Portugal and negative for Spain. Productivity decline is worse for capital in the Spanish construction firms, and for labor in Portugal. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid population growth and stagnation of agricultural yields in Rwanda have caused a steady decline in food production per capita, a continuous expansion towards the use of marginal land and a strong degradation of land. The challenge of simultaneously achieving food security, rural welfare, land protection and soil fertility regeneration in the face of its high population is overwhelming to Rwanda. The objectives of this article are to assess the potential impacts of the alternative agricultural technologies on income, food production and soil loss for four arable farm household types and to assess policies that could induce adoption of these technologies. These include combined use of Tithonia diversifolia (green manure) and Diammonium phosphate. The bio-economic farm household model used has a form of a mathematical form of quadratic programming model. Model results show that these alternative agricultural technologies will clearly enhance food production and income for all farm household types except the full-time farm household for which cash at the beginning of the season is too restricted to switch to the new technologies. The outcomes of the model also reveal that with alternative technologies soil loss and soil organic carbon do not entail negative economic consequences. Off-farm employment policy will have a high impact on adoption among households with small farms and less off-farm opportunities because it provides cash that is needed to adopt the new technologies.

Background This research utilizes the Reasoned Action Approach framework to study which beliefs drive the intention of farmers to participate in a voluntary vaccination scheme against Bluetongue. Scope and approach Knowing the driving beliefs can help in selecting an appropriate mix of policy instruments to enhance the participation rate and thereby improve the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of voluntary vaccination strategies. Results are used to evaluate the policy instruments used by the Dutch government in their 2008 vaccination strategy (communicative intervention and vaccine subsidization). Key findings and conclusions The paper posits that social interaction mechanisms, such as peer group pressure, might advance the design of voluntary vaccination strategies.

The present study investigated 15 broiler and 13 fattening pig farmers’ willingness-to-convert to alternative production systems with higher animal welfare standards compared to conventional production systems in The Netherlands, and explored the main barriers to the adoption of these alternative systems. Alternative production systems were categorised, according to whether farmers were required to make reversible or irreversible changes to the current farm. Two out of the four pig systems in the study were considered as reversible, whereas the other two as irreversible. One out of the four broiler systems presented was considered as reversible, whereas the other three as irreversible. Results show that to convert to a system requiring irreversible changes 83 and 85% (figures for each of the two irreversible systems) of the surveyed fattening pig farmers required a 30% or higher increase in their family income, while to convert to a system requiring reversible changes 8 and 23% of the pig farmers required a similar level of increase. Also, for each of the three irreversible systems, 62, 64 and 87% of the surveyed broiler farmers required a 30% or higher increase in their family income to a system requiring irreversible changes, while to convert to a system requiring reversible changes, 20% of the broiler farmers required a similar level of increase. Thirty-eight and 62% of the fattening pig farmers and 40% of the broiler farmers were willing to convert to the specific systems that allowed reversible changes if they knew they could earn the same income as they did in their current system. This study highlights a number of reasons for farmers’ reluctance to switch to alternative systems: perceived uncertainty about price premiums, lack of space on the farm, scarcity of land nearby the farm, risk of disease spread, the existing farm set-up, prohibition of tail docking, allowing for castration, and views that proposed alternatives were ‘farmer-unfriendly’ or impractical.

Rwandan agriculture is not able to meet its population’s food needs from its own production, which results in food insecurity. Land degradation is a serious problem which contributes to a low and declining agricultural productivity and consequently to food insecurity. The objective of this paper is to develop a bio-economic model capable of analysing the impacts of soil erosion, family planning and land consolidation policies on food security in Rwanda. The results of the bio-economic model show that a higher availability of good farm land would increase the farm income. Additionally, preserving soils against erosion and reducing risk would allow for releasing more marginal land which would increase food production for home consumption and for the market. Increasing the opportunities for off-farm employment can also increase farm household income. The outcomes of the model support the Rwanda policy on family planning, while the policy on land consolidation is not endorsed. Key words: Rwanda, land degradation, food security, bioeconomic model, family planning policy