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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

In this work we present downscaling experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to test the sensitivity to resolving aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions on simulated regional climate for the EURO-CORDEX domain. The sensitivities mainly focus on the aerosol–radiation interactions (direct and semi-direct effects) with four different aerosol optical depth datasets (Tegen, MAC-v1, MACC, GOCART) being used and changes to the aerosol absorptivity (single scattering albedo) being examined. Moreover, part of the sensitivities also investigates aerosol–cloud interactions (indirect effect). Simulations have a resolution of 0.44∘ and are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. A basic evaluation is performed in the context of seasonal-mean comparisons to ground-based (E-OBS) and satellite-based (CM SAF SARAH, CLARA) benchmark observational datasets. The impact of aerosols is calculated by comparing it against a simulation that has no aerosol effects. The implementation of aerosol–radiation interactions reduces the direct component of the incoming surface solar radiation by 20 %–30 % in all seasons, due to enhanced aerosol scattering and absorption. Moreover the aerosol–radiation interactions increase the diffuse component of surface solar radiation in both summer (30 %–40 %) and winter (5 %–8 %), whereas the overall downward solar radiation at the surface is attenuated by 3 %–8 %. The resulting aerosol radiative effect is negative and is comprised of the net effect from the combination of the highly negative direct aerosol effect (−17 to −5 W m−2) and the small positive changes in the cloud radiative effect (+5 W m−2), attributed to the semi-direct effect. The aerosol radiative effect is also stronger in summer (−12 W m−2) than in winter (−2 W m−2). We also show that modelling aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions can lead to small changes in cloudiness, mainly regarding low-level clouds, and circulation anomalies in the lower and mid-troposphere, which in some cases, mainly close to the Black Sea in autumn, can be of statistical significance. Precipitation is not affected in a consistent pattern throughout the year by the aerosol implementation, and changes do not exceed ±5 % except for the case of unrealistically absorbing aerosol. Temperature, on the other hand, systematically decreases by −0.1 to −0.5 ∘C due to aerosol–radiation interactions with regional changes that can be up to −1.5 ∘C.

Exploring Unprecedented Extremes What: Facing the urgent challenge of extreme weather and climate-related events, our societal frameworks for 'resilience' and 'adaptation' are proving to be insufficient. This paper introduces the [...]

We analyze the first cohabitation with a partner as one of the key events in the transition to adulthood and consider its interdependencies with other life events, using life course data from the survey AID:A 2019 of the German Youth Institute (DJI). A remarkable finding is that for men, cohabitation with a partner usually occurs after an individual’s entry into permanent employment.

Abstract Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, which in combination with rising population enhances exposure to major floods. An improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that cause extreme precipitation events would help to advance predictions and projections of such events. To date, such analyses have typically been performed rather unsystematically and over limited areas (e.g., the U.S.) which has resulted in contradictory findings. Here we present the Multi‐Object Analysis of Atmospheric Phenomenon algorithm that uses a set of 12 common atmospheric variables to identify and track tropical and extra‐tropical cyclones, cut‐off lows, frontal zones, anticyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs), jets, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and equatorial waves. We apply the algorithm to global historical data between 2001–2020 and associate phenomena with hourly and daily satellite‐derived extreme precipitation estimates in major climate regions. We find that MCSs produce the vast majority of extreme precipitation in the tropics and some mid‐latitude land regions, while extreme precipitation in mid and high‐latitude ocean and coastal regions are dominated by cyclones and ARs. Importantly, most extreme precipitation events are associated with phenomena interacting across scales that intensify precipitation. These interactions are a function of the intensity (i.e., rarity) of extreme events. The presented methodology and results could have wide‐ranging applications including training of machine learning methods, Lagrangian‐based evaluation of climate models, and process‐based understanding of extreme precipitation in a changing climate.

Two convection-permitting climate models project similar increases in peak rainfall intensities from mesoscale convective storms across Europe by 2100, but project contrasting changes to storm frequency, size, and speed due to differences in the representation of dynamical responses to global warming.

Theory indicates that tropical cyclone (TC) intensity should respond to environmental temperature changes near the surface and in the TC outflow layer. While the sensitivity of TC intensity to sea surface temperature is well understood, less is known about the role of upper-level stratification. In this paper, we combine historical data analysis and idealised modelling to explore the extent to which historical low-level warming and upper-level stratification can explain observed trends in the TC intensity distribution. Observations and modelling agree that historical global environmental temperature changes coincide with higher lifetime maximum intensities. Observations suggest the response depends on the TC intensity itself. Hurricane-strength storms have intensified at twice the rate of weaker storms per unit surface and upper-tropospheric warming, and we find faster warming of low-level temperatures in hurricane environments than the tropical mean. Idealised simulations respond in the expected sense to various imposed changes in the near-surface temperature and upper-level stratification representing present-day and end-of-century thermal profiles and agree with TCs operating as heat engines. Removing upper-tropospheric warming or stratospheric cooling from end-of-century experiments results in much smaller changes in potential intensity or realised intensity than between present day and the end of the century. A larger proportional change in thermodynamic disequilibrium compared to thermodynamic efficiency in our simulations suggests that disequilibrium, not efficiency, is responsible for much of the intensity increase from present day to the end of the century. The limited change in efficiency is attributable to nearly constant outflow temperature in the simulated TCs among the experiments. Observed sensitivities are generally larger than modelled sensitivities, suggesting that observed TC intensity change responds to a combination of the temperature change and other environmental factors.

Introduction Individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID) often suffer from hearing loss, in most cases undiagnosed or inappropriately treated. The implementation of a programme of systematic hearing screening, diagnostics, therapy initiation or allocation and long-term monitoring within the living environments of individuals with ID (nurseries, schools, workshops, homes), therefore, seems beneficial.Methods and analysis The study aims to assess the effectiveness and costs of a low-threshold screening programme for individuals with ID. Within this programme 1050 individuals with ID of all ages will undergo hearing screening and an immediate reference diagnosis in their living environment (outreach cohort). The recruitment of participants in the outreach group will take place within 158 institutions, for example, schools, kindergartens and places of living or work. If an individual fails the screening assessment, subsequent full audiometric diagnostics will follow and, if hearing loss is confirmed, initiation of therapy or referral to and monitoring of such therapy. A control cohort of 141 participants will receive an invitation from their health insurance provider via their family for the same procedure but within a clinic (clinical cohort). A second screening measurement will be performed with both cohorts 1 year later and the previous therapy outcome will be checked. It is hypothesised that this programme leads to a relevant reduction in the number of untreated or inadequately treated cases of hearing loss and strengthens the communication skills of the newly or better-treated individuals. Secondary outcomes include the age-dependent prevalence of hearing loss in individuals with ID, the costs associated with this programme, cost of illness before-and-after enrolment and modelling of the programme’s cost-effectiveness compared with regular care.Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved by the Institutional Ethics Review Board of the Medical Association of Westphalia-Lippe and the University of Münster (No. 2020-843 f-S). Participants or guardians will provide written informed consent. Findings will be disseminated through presentations, peer-reviewed journals and conferences.Trial registration number DRKS00024804.

Aggrecan (ACAN) is localized in the intervertebral disc (IVD) in unique compartment-specific patterns where it contributes to the tissue structure and mechanical function together with collagens. The extracellular matrix (ECM) of the IVD undergoes degenerative changes during aging, misuse or trauma, which inevitably alter the biochemical and biomechanical properties of the tissue. A deeper understanding of these processes can be achieved in genetically engineered mouse models, taking into account the multifaceted aspects of IVD development. In this study, we generated aggrecan insertion mutant mice (AcaniE5/iE5) by interrupting exon 5 coding for the G1 domain of ACAN, and analyzed the morphological and mechanical properties of the different IVD compartments during embryonic development. Western blotting using an antibody against the total core protein failed to detect ACAN in cartilage extracts, whereas immunohistochemistry by a G1-specific antibody showed weak signals in vertebral tissues of AcaniE5/iE5 mice. Homozygous mutant mice are perinatally lethal and characterized by short snout, cleft palate and disproportionate dwarfism. Whole-mount skeletal staining and µ-CT analysis of AcaniE5/iE5 mice at embryonic day 18.5 revealed compressed vertebral bodies with accelerated mineralization compared to wild type controls. In AcaniE5/iE5 mice, histochemical staining revealed collapsed extracellular matrix with negligible sulfated glycosaminoglycan content accompanied by a high cellular density. Collagen type II deposition was not impaired in the IVD of AcaniE5/iE5 mice, as shown by immunohistochemistry. Mutant mice developed a severe IVD phenotype with deformed nucleus pulposus and thinned cartilaginous endplates accompanied by a disrupted growth plate structure in the vertebral body. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging demonstrated a denser collagen network with thinner fibrils in the mutant IVD zones compared to wild type. Nanoscale AFM indentation revealed bimodal stiffness distribution attributable to the softer proteoglycan moiety and harder collagenous fibrils of the wild type IVD ECM. In AcaniE5/iE5 mice, loss of aggrecan resulted in a marked shift of the Young’s modulus to higher values in all IVD zones. In conclusion, we demonstrated that aggrecan is pivotal for the determination and maintenance of the proper stiffness of IVD and vertebral tissues, which in turn could play an essential role in providing developmental biomechanical cues.

Following eye gaze is fundamental for many social‐cognitive abilities, for example, when judging what another agent can or cannot know. While the emergence of gaze following has been thoroughly studied on a group level, we know little about (a) the developmental trajectory beyond infancy and (b) the sources of individual differences. In Study 1, we examined gaze following across the lifespan (N = 478 3‐ to 19‐year‐olds from Leipzig, Germany; and N = 240 20‐ to 80‐year‐old international, remotely tested adults). We found a steep performance improvement during preschool years, in which children became more precise in locating the attentional focus of an agent. Precision levels then stayed comparably stable throughout adulthood with a minor decline toward old age. In Study 2, we formalized the process of gaze following in a computational cognitive model that allowed us to conceptualize individual differences in a psychologically meaningful way (N = 60 3‐ to 5‐year‐olds, 50 adults). According to our model, participants estimate pupil angles with varying levels of precision based on observing the pupil location within the agent's eyes. In Study 3, we empirically tested how gaze following relates to vector following in non‐social settings and perspective‐taking abilities (N = 102 4‐ to 5‐year‐olds). We found that gaze following is associated with both of these abilities but less so with other Theory of Mind tasks. This work illustrates how the combination of reliable measurement instruments and formal theoretical models allows us to explore the in(ter)dependence of core social‐cognitive processes in greater detail. Research Highlights: Gaze following develops beyond infancy. The highest precision levels in localizing attentional foci are reached in young adulthood with a slight decrease towards old age.We present a computational model that describes gaze following as a process of estimating pupil angles and the corresponding gaze vectors.The model explains individual differences and recovers signature patterns in the data. To estimate the relation between gaze‐ and vector following, we designed a non‐social vector following task.We found substantial correlations between gaze following and vector following, as well as Level 2 perspective‐taking. Other Theory of Mind tasks did not correlate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with two planetary boundary layer schemes, ACM2 and MYNN, convection‐permitting model (CPM) regional climate simulations were conducted for a 6‐year period, including a one‐year spin‐up period, at a 15‐km grid spacing covering entire South America and a nested convection‐permitting 3‐km grid spacing covering the Peruvian central Andes region. These two CPM simulations along with a 4‐km simulation covering South America produced by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), three gridded precipitation products, and rain gauge data in Peru and Brazil, are used to document the characteristics of precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian central Andes region. Results show that all km‐scale simulations generally capture the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation and MCSs at both seasonal and diurnal scales, although biases exist in aspects such as precipitation intensity and MCS frequency, size, propagation speed, and associated precipitation intensity. The 3‐km simulation using MYNN scheme generally outperforms the other simulations in capturing seasonal and diurnal precipitation over the mountain, while both it and the 4‐km simulation demonstrate superior performance in the western Amazon Basin, based on the comparison to the gridded precipitation products and gauge data. Dynamic factors, primarily low‐level jet and terrain‐induced uplift, are the key drivers for precipitation and MCS genesis along the east slope of the Andes, while thermodynamic factors control the precipitation and MCS activity in the western Amazon Basin and over elevated mountainous regions. The study suggests model improvements and better model configurations for future regional climate projections. Plain Language Summary: We ran high‐resolution model simulations at a 3‐km grid spacing with ACM2 and MYNN planetary boundary layer schemes for a 6‐year period, including a 1‐year spin‐up, to investigate precipitation and storm patterns in the Peruvian central Andes region. Other data sets including a 4‐km simulation produced by National Center for Atmospheric Research, three gridded precipitation products, and rain gauge data in Peru and Brazil were collected for comparison and evaluation. We found that all km‐scale simulations capture overall patterns of precipitation and storms at both seasonal and sub‐daily time scales, although some discrepancies exist in precipitation intensity and storm details. Compared to the gridded precipitation products and gauge data, the 3‐km simulation using MYNN scheme generally outperforms the other simulations in capturing seasonal and diurnal precipitation over the mountain, while both it and the 4‐km simulation demonstrate superior performance in the western Amazon Basin. Low‐level wind and terrain‐induced uplift are the key drivers for precipitation and storm genesis along the Andes' eastern slopes, while factors associated with vertical structures of temperature and humidity control the precipitation and storm activity in the western Amazon Basin and mountain regions. The study suggests model improvements and better model configurations for future regional climate projections. Key Points: Characteristics of precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian Central Andes are investigated based on convection‐permitting simulationsWRF3km_MYNN outperforms in simulating mountain precipitation; both it and WRF4km_SAAG show superior performance in western AmazonDynamic factors dominate precipitation and MCSs on the Andean east slope, while thermodynamic factors are dominant in western Amazon Basin [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]