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As city governments take steps towards establishing emissions reduction targets, the atmospheric research community is increasingly able to assist in tracking emissions reductions. Researchers have established systems for observing atmospheric greenhouse gases in urban areas with the aim of attributing greenhouse gas concentration enhancements (and thus emissions) to the region in question. However, to attribute enhancements to a particular region, one must isolate the component of the observed concentration attributable to fluxes inside the region by removing the background, which is the component due to fluxes outside. In this study, we demonstrate methods to construct several versions of a background for our carbon dioxide and methane observing network in the Washington, DC, and Baltimore, MD, metropolitan region. Some of these versions rely on transport and flux models, while others are based on observations upwind of the domain. First, we evaluate the backgrounds in a synthetic data framework, and then we evaluate against real observations from our urban network. We find that backgrounds based on upwind observations capture the variability better than model-based backgrounds, although care must be taken to avoid bias from biospheric carbon dioxide fluxes near background stations in summer. Model-based backgrounds also perform well when upwind fluxes can be modeled accurately. Our study evaluates different background methods and provides guidance in determining background methodology that can impact the design of urban monitoring networks.

We present the organization, structure, instrumentation, and measurements of the Northeast Corridor greenhouse gas observation network. This network of tower-based in situ carbon dioxide and methane observation stations was established in 2015 with the goal of quantifying emissions of these gases in urban areas in the northeastern United States. A specific focus of the network is the cities of Baltimore, MD, and Washington, DC, USA, with a high density of observation stations in these two urban areas. Additional observation stations are scattered throughout the northeastern US, established to complement other existing urban and regional networks and to investigate emissions throughout this complex region with a high population density and multiple metropolitan areas. Data described in this paper are archived at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and can be found at https://doi.org/10.18434/M32126 (Karion et al., 2019).

Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation requires understanding the dominant processes controlling fluxes of these trace gases at increasingly finer spatial and temporal scales. Trace gas fluxes can be estimated using a variety of approaches that translate observed atmospheric species mole fractions into fluxes or emission rates, often identifying the spatial and temporal characteristics of the emission sources as well. Meteorological models are commonly combined with tracer dispersion models to estimate fluxes using an inverse approach that optimizes emissions to best fit the trace gas mole fraction observations. One way to evaluate the accuracy of atmospheric flux estimation methods is to compare results from independent methods, including approaches in which different meteorological and tracer dispersion models are used. In this work, we use a rich data set of atmospheric methane observations collected during an intensive airborne campaign to compare different methane emissions estimates from the Barnett Shale oil and natural gas production basin in Texas, USA. We estimate emissions based on a variety of different meteorological and dispersion models. Previous estimates of methane emissions from this region relied on a simple model (a mass balance analysis) as well as on ground-based measurements and statistical data analysis (an inventory). We find that in addition to meteorological model choice, the choice of tracer dispersion model also has a significant impact on the predicted downwind methane concentrations given the same emissions field. The dispersion models tested often underpredicted the observed methane enhancements with significant variability (up to a factor of 3) between different models and between different days. We examine possible causes for this result and find that the models differ in their simulation of vertical dispersion, indicating that additional work is needed to evaluate and improve vertical mixing in the tracer dispersion models commonly used in regional trace gas flux inversions.

Advances in natural gas extraction technology have led to increased activity in the production and transport sectors in the United States and, as a consequence, an increased need for reliable monitoring of methane leaks to the atmosphere. We present a statistical methodology in combination with an observing system for the detection and attribution of fugitive emissions of methane from distributed potential source location landscapes such as natural gas production sites. We measure long (> 500 m), integrated open-path concentrations of atmospheric methane using a dual frequency comb spectrometer and combine measurements with an atmospheric transport model to infer leak locations and strengths using a novel statistical method, the non-zero minimum bootstrap (NZMB). The new statistical method allows us to determine whether the empirical distribution of possible source strengths for a given location excludes zero. Using this information, we identify leaking source locations (i.e., natural gas wells) through rejection of the null hypothesis that the source is not leaking. The method is tested with a series of synthetic data inversions with varying measurement density and varying levels of model–data mismatch. It is also tested with field observations of (1) a non-leaking source location and (2) a source location where a controlled emission of 3.1 × 10−5 kg s−1 of methane gas is released over a period of several hours. This series of synthetic data tests and outdoor field observations using a controlled methane release demonstrates the viability of the approach for the detection and sizing of very small leaks of methane across large distances (4+ km2 in synthetic tests). The field tests demonstrate the ability to attribute small atmospheric enhancements of 17 ppb to the emitting source location against a background of combined atmospheric (e.g., background methane variability) and measurement uncertainty of 5 ppb (1σ), when measurements are averaged over 2 min. The results of the synthetic and field data testing show that the new observing system and statistical approach greatly decreases the incidence of false alarms (that is, wrongly identifying a well site to be leaking) compared with the same tests that do not use the NZMB approach and therefore offers increased leak detection and sizing capabilities.

Natural gas infrastructure releases methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated emission rate associated with the production and transportation of natural gas is uncertain, hindering our understanding of its greenhouse footprint. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional emission rates from natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania. An inventory of CH4 emissions was compiled for major sources in Pennsylvania. This inventory served as input emission data for the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry enabled (WRF-Chem), and atmospheric CH4 mole fraction fields were generated at 3 km resolution. Simulated atmospheric CH4 enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations obtained from a 3-week flight campaign in May 2015. Modelled enhancements from sources not associated with upstream natural gas processes were assumed constant and known and therefore removed from the optimization procedure, creating a set of observed enhancements from natural gas only. Simulated emission rates from unconventional production were then adjusted to minimize the mismatch between aircraft observations and model-simulated mole fractions for 10 flights. To evaluate the method, an aircraft mass balance calculation was performed for four flights where conditions permitted its use. Using the model optimization approach, the weighted mean emission rate from unconventional natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania approach is found to be 0.36 % of total gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.27 and 0.45 % of production. Similarly, the mean emission estimates using the aircraft mass balance approach are calculated to be 0.40 % of regional natural gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.08 and 0.72 % of production. These emission rates as a percent of production are lower than rates found in any other basin using a top-down methodology, and may be indicative of some characteristics of the basin that make sources from the north-eastern Marcellus region unique.

We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four extra-urban sites including two marine sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one continental site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one continental/mid-troposphere site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ∼ 1 ppm CO2 and ∼ 10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. Urban and suburban sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ∼ 20 ppm CO2 and ∼ 150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ∼ 15 ppm CO2 and ∼ 80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00–16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine background estimate is ∼ 10 and ∼ 15 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement near downtown LA for CO2 and CH4, respectively. Overall, analytical and background uncertainties are small relative to the local CO2 and CH4 enhancements; however, our results suggest that reducing the uncertainty to less than 5 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement will require detailed assessment of the impact of meteorology on background conditions.

Non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors are a low-cost way to observe carbon dioxide concentrations in air, but their specified accuracy and precision are not sufficient for some scientific applications. An initial evaluation of six SenseAir K30 carbon dioxide NDIR sensors in a lab setting showed that without any calibration or correction, the sensors have an individual root mean square error (RMSE) between ∼ 5 and 21 parts per million (ppm) compared to a research-grade greenhouse gas analyzer using cavity enhanced laser absorption spectroscopy. Through further evaluation, after correcting for environmental variables with coefficients determined through a multivariate linear regression analysis, the calculated difference between the each of six individual K30 NDIR sensors and the higher-precision instrument had an RMSE of between 1.7 and 4.3 ppm for 1 min data. The median RMSE improved from 9.6 for off-the-shelf sensors to 1.9 ppm after correction and calibration, demonstrating the potential to provide useful information for ambient air monitoring.

Northern high-latitude carbon sources and sinks, including those resulting from degrading permafrost, are thought to be sensitive to the rapidly warming climate. Because the near-surface atmosphere integrates surface fluxes over large ( ∼ 500–1000 km) scales, atmospheric monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) mole fractions in the daytime mixed layer is a promising method for detecting change in the carbon cycle throughout boreal Alaska. Here we use CO2 and CH4 measurements from a NOAA tower 17 km north of Fairbanks, AK, established as part of NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), to investigate regional fluxes of CO2 and CH4 for 2012–2014. CARVE was designed to use aircraft and surface observations to better understand and quantify the sensitivity of Alaskan carbon fluxes to climate variability. We use high-resolution meteorological fields from the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (hereafter, WRF-STILT), along with the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (PolarVPRM), to investigate fluxes of CO2 in boreal Alaska using the tower observations, which are sensitive to large areas of central Alaska. We show that simulated PolarVPRM–WRF-STILT CO2 mole fractions show remarkably good agreement with tower observations, suggesting that the WRF-STILT model represents the meteorology of the region quite well, and that the PolarVPRM flux magnitudes and spatial distribution are generally consistent with CO2 mole fractions observed at the CARVE tower. One exception to this good agreement is that during the fall of all 3 years, PolarVPRM cannot reproduce the observed CO2 respiration. Using the WRF-STILT model, we find that average CH4 fluxes in boreal Alaska are somewhat lower than flux estimates by Chang et al. (2014) over all of Alaska for May–September 2012; we also find that enhancements appear to persist during some wintertime periods, augmenting those observed during the summer and fall. The possibility of significant fall and winter CO2 and CH4 fluxes underscores the need for year-round in situ observations to quantify changes in boreal Alaskan annual carbon balance.

This paper describes the atmospheric modeling that underlies the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) science analysis, including its meteorological and atmospheric transport components (polar variant of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) models), and provides WRF validation for May–October 2012 and March–November 2013 – the first 2 years of the aircraft field campaign. A triply nested computational domain for WRF was chosen so that the innermost domain with 3.3 km grid spacing encompasses the entire mainland of Alaska and enables the substantial orography of the state to be represented by the underlying high-resolution topographic input field. Summary statistics of the WRF model performance on the 3.3 km grid indicate good overall agreement with quality-controlled surface and radiosonde observations. Two-meter temperatures are generally too cold by approximately 1.4 K in 2012 and 1.1 K in 2013, while 2 m dewpoint temperatures are too low (dry) by 0.2 K in 2012 and too high (moist) by 0.6 K in 2013. Wind speeds are biased too low by 0.2 m s−1 in 2012 and 0.3 m s−1 in 2013. Model representation of upper level variables is very good. These measures are comparable to model performance metrics of similar model configurations found in the literature. The high quality of these fine-resolution WRF meteorological fields inspires confidence in their use to drive STILT for the purpose of computing surface influences ("footprints") at commensurably increased resolution. Indeed, footprints generated on a 0.1° grid show increased spatial detail compared with those on the more common 0.5° grid, better allowing for convolution with flux models for carbon dioxide and methane across the heterogeneous Alaskan landscape. Ozone deposition rates computed using STILT footprints indicate good agreement with observations and exhibit realistic seasonal variability, further indicating that WRF-STILT footprints are of high quality and will support accurate estimates of CO2 and CH4 surface–atmosphere fluxes using CARVE observations.

Recent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional-scale air quality model (WRF-Chem) to simulate high ozone (O3) episodes during the winter of 2013 over the Uinta Basin (UB) in northeastern Utah, which is densely populated by thousands of oil and NG wells. The high-resolution meteorological simulations are able qualitatively to reproduce the wintertime cold pool conditions that occurred in 2013, allowing the model to reproduce the observed multi-day buildup of atmospheric pollutants and the accompanying rapid photochemical ozone formation in the UB. Two different emission scenarios for the oil and NG sector were employed in this study. The first emission scenario (bottom-up) was based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Inventory (NEI) (2011, version 1) for the oil and NG sector for the UB. The second emission scenario (top-down) was based on estimates of methane (CH4) emissions derived from in situ aircraft measurements and a regression analysis for multiple species relative to CH4 concentration measurements in the UB. Evaluation of the model results shows greater underestimates of CH4 and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the simulation with the NEI-2011 inventory than in the case when the top-down emission scenario was used. Unlike VOCs, the NEI-2011 inventory significantly overestimates the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), while the top-down emission scenario results in a moderate negative bias. The model simulation using the top-down emission case captures the buildup and afternoon peaks observed during high O3 episodes. In contrast, the simulation using the bottom-up inventory is not able to reproduce any of the observed high O3 concentrations in the UB. Simple emission reduction scenarios show that O3 production is VOC sensitive and NOx insensitive within the UB. The model results show a disproportionate contribution of aromatic VOCs to O3 formation relative to all other VOC emissions. The model analysis reveals that the major factors driving high wintertime O3 in the UB are shallow boundary layers with light winds, high emissions of VOCs from oil and NG operations compared to NOx emissions, enhancement of photolysis fluxes and reduction of O3 loss from deposition due to snow cover.

Urban environments are the primary contributors to global anthropogenic carbon emissions. Because much of the growth in CO2 emissions will originate from cities, there is a need to develop, assess, and improve measurement and modeling strategies for quantifying and monitoring greenhouse gas emissions from large urban centers. In this study the uncertainties in an aircraft-based mass balance approach for quantifying carbon dioxide and methane emissions from an urban environment, focusing on Indianapolis, IN, USA, are described. The relatively level terrain of Indianapolis facilitated the application of mean wind fields in the mass balance approach. We investigate the uncertainties in our aircraft-based mass balance approach by (1) assessing the sensitivity of the measured flux to important measurement and analysis parameters including wind speed, background CO2 and CH4, boundary layer depth, and interpolation technique, and (2) determining the flux at two or more downwind distances from a point or area source (with relatively large source strengths such as solid waste facilities and a power generating station) in rapid succession, assuming that the emission flux is constant. When we quantify the precision in the approach by comparing the estimated emissions derived from measurements at two or more downwind distances from an area or point source, we find that the minimum and maximum repeatability were 12 and 52%, with an average of 31%. We suggest that improvements in the experimental design can be achieved by careful determination of the background concentration, monitoring the evolution of the boundary layer through the measurement period, and increasing the number of downwind horizontal transect measurements at multiple altitudes within the boundary layer.

Accurate measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) in humid air have been made using the cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) technique. The measurements of CO mole fractions are determined from the strength of its spectral absorption in the near-infrared region (~1.57 μm) after removing interferences from adjacent carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) absorption lines. Water correction functions that account for the dilution and pressure-broadening effects as well as absorption line interferences from adjacent CO2 and H2O lines have been derived for CO2 mole fractions between 360–390 ppm and for reported H2O mole fractions between 0–4%. The line interference corrections are independent of CO mole fractions. The dependence of the line interference correction on CO2 abundance is estimated to be approximately −0.3 ppb/100 ppm CO2 for dry mole fractions of CO. Comparisons of water correction functions from different analyzers of the same type show significant differences, making it necessary to perform instrument-specific water tests for each individual analyzer. The CRDS analyzer was flown on an aircraft in Alaska from April to November in 2011, and the accuracy of the CO measurements by the CRDS analyzer has been validated against discrete NOAA/ESRL flask sample measurements made on board the same aircraft, with a mean difference between integrated in situ and flask measurements of −0.6 ppb and a standard deviation of 2.8 ppb. Preliminary testing of CRDS instrumentation that employs improved spectroscopic model functions for CO2, H2O, and CO to fit the raw spectral data (available since the beginning of 2012) indicates a smaller water vapor dependence than the models discussed here, but more work is necessary to fully validate the performance. The CRDS technique provides an accurate and low-maintenance method of monitoring the atmospheric dry mole fractions of CO in humid air streams.

Traditional techniques for measuring the mole fractions of greenhouse gases in the well-mixed atmosphere have required dry sample gas streams (dew point < −25 °C) to achieve the inter-laboratory compatibility goals set forth by the Global Atmosphere Watch programme of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO/GAW) for carbon dioxide (±0.1 ppm in the Northern Hemisphere and ±0.05 ppm in the Southern Hemisphere) and methane (±2 ppb). Drying the sample gas to low levels of water vapour can be expensive, time-consuming, and/or problematic, especially at remote sites where access is difficult. Recent advances in optical measurement techniques, in particular cavity ring down spectroscopy, have led to the development of greenhouse gas analysers capable of simultaneous measurements of carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour. Unlike many older technologies, which can suffer from significant uncorrected interference from water vapour, these instruments permit accurate and precise greenhouse gas measurements that can meet the WMO/GAW inter-laboratory compatibility goals (WMO, 2011a) without drying the sample gas. In this paper, we present laboratory methodology for empirically deriving the water vapour correction factors, and we summarise a series of in-situ validation experiments comparing the measurements in humid gas streams to well-characterised dry-gas measurements. By using the manufacturer-supplied correction factors, the dry-mole fraction measurements have been demonstrated to be well within the GAW compatibility goals up to a water vapour concentration of at least 1%. By determining the correction factors for individual instruments once at the start of life, this water vapour concentration range can be extended to at least 2% over the life of the instrument, and if the correction factors are determined periodically over time, the evidence suggests that this range can be extended up to and even above 4% water vapour concentrations.

In March 2009 the NOAA/ESRL/GMD Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Gases Group collaborated with the US Coast Guard (USCG) to establish the Alaska Coast Guard (ACG) sampling site, a unique addition to NOAA's atmospheric monitoring network. This collaboration takes advantage of USCG bi-weekly Arctic Domain Awareness (ADA) flights, conducted with Hercules C-130 aircraft from March to November each year. Flights typically last 8 h and cover a large area, traveling from Kodiak up to Barrow, Alaska, with altitude profiles near the coast and in the interior. NOAA instrumentation on each flight includes a flask sampling system, a continuous cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) carbon dioxide (CO2)/methane (CH4)/carbon monoxide (CO)/water vapor (H2O) analyzer, a continuous ozone analyzer, and an ambient temperature and humidity sensor. Air samples collected in flight are analyzed at NOAA/ESRL for the major greenhouse gases and a variety of halocarbons and hydrocarbons that influence climate, stratospheric ozone, and air quality. We describe the overall system for making accurate greenhouse gas measurements using a CRDS analyzer on an aircraft with minimal operator interaction and present an assessment of analyzer performance over a three-year period. Overall analytical uncertainty of CRDS measurements in 2011 is estimated to be 0.15 ppm, 1.4 ppb, and 5 ppb for CO2, CH4, and CO, respectively, considering short-term precision, calibration uncertainties, and water vapor correction uncertainty. The stability of the CRDS analyzer over a seven-month deployment period is better than 0.15 ppm, 2 ppb, and 4 ppb for CO2, CH4, and CO, respectively, based on differences of on-board reference tank measurements from a laboratory calibration performed prior to deployment. This stability is not affected by variation in pressure or temperature during flight. We conclude that the uncertainty reported for our measurements would not be significantly affected if the measurements were made without in-flight calibrations, provided ground calibrations and testing were performed regularly. Comparisons between in situ CRDS measurements and flask measurements are consistent with expected measurement uncertainties for CH4 and CO, but differences are larger than expected for CO2. Biases and standard deviations of comparisons with flask samples suggest that atmospheric variability, flask-to-flask variability, and possible flask sampling biases may be driving the observed flask versus in situ CO2 differences rather than the CRDS measurements.

Abstract Instrumented aircraft measuring air composition in the Uinta Basin, Utah, during February 2012 and January-February 2013 documented dramatically different atmospheric ozone (O3) mole fractions. In 2012 O3 remained near levels of ∼40 ppb in a well-mixed 500–1000 m deep boundary layer while in 2013, O3 mole fractions >140 ppb were measured in a shallow (∼200 m) boundary layer. In contrast to 2012 when mole fractions of emissions from oil and gas production such as methane (CH4), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and combustion products such as carbon dioxide (CO2) were moderately elevated, in winter 2013 very high mole fractions were observed. Snow cover in 2013 helped produce and maintain strong temperature inversions that capped a shallow cold pool layer. In 2012, O3 and CH4 and associated NMHCs mole fractions were not closely related. In 2013, O3 mole fractions were correlated with CH4 and a suite of NMHCs identifying the gas field as the primary source of the O3 precursor NMHC emissions. In 2013 there was a strong positive correlation between CH4 and CO2 suggesting combustion from oil and natural gas processing activities. The presence of O3 precursor NMHCs through the depth of the boundary layer in 2013 led to O3 production throughout the layer. In 2013, O3 mole fractions increased over the course of the week-long episodes indicating O3 photochemical production was larger than dilution and deposition rates, while CH4 mole fractions began to level off after 3 days indicative of some air being mixed out of the boundary layer. The plume of a coal-fired power plant located east of the main gas field was not an important contributor to O3 or O3 precursors in the boundary layer in 2013.

A one hour integrated flask sampling system to collect air in automated NOAA/ESRL 12-flask packages is described. The integrating compressor system uses a mass flow controller to regulate the flow of air through a 15 l volume, thus providing a mixture of air collected over an hour-long period. By beginning with a high flow rate of 3.8 standard liters per minute and gradually decreasing the flow rate over time to 0.29 standard liters per minute it is possible to obtain a nearly uniformly time averaged sample of air and collect it into a pressurized 0.7 l flask. The weighting function determining the air mixture obtained is described in detail. Laboratory and field tests demonstrate that the integrated sample approximates a simple mean of air collected during the one-hour sampling time.

Direct quantification of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) in atmospheric samples can be used to examine several carbon cycle and air quality questions. We collected in situ CO2, CO, and CH4 measurements and flask samples in the boundary layer and free troposphere over Sacramento, California, USA, during two aircraft flights over and downwind of this urban area during spring of 2009. The flask samples were analyzed for Δ14CO2 and CO2 to determine the recently added CO2ff mole fraction. A suite of greenhouse and other trace gases, including hydrocarbons and halocarbons, were measured in the same samples. Strong correlations were observed between CO2ff and numerous trace gases associated with urban emissions. From these correlations we estimate emission ratios between CO2ff and these species, and compare these with bottom-up inventory-derived estimates. Recent county level inventory estimates for carbon monoxide (CO) and benzene from the California Air Resources Board CEPAM database are in good agreement with our measured emission ratios, whereas older emissions inventories appear to overestimate emissions of these gases by a factor of two. For most other trace species, there are substantial differences (200–500%) between our measured emission ratios and those derived from available emission inventories. For the first flight, we combine in situ CO measurements with the measured CO:CO2ff emission ratio of 14 ± 2 ppbCO/ppmCO2 to derive an estimate of CO2ff mole fraction throughout this flight, and also estimate the biospheric CO2 mixing ratio (CO2bio) from the difference of total and fossil CO2. The resulting CO2bio varies dramatically from up to 8 ± 2 ppm in the urban plume to −6 ± 1 ppm in the surrounding boundary layer air. Finally, we use the in situ estimates of CO2ff mole fraction to infer total fossil fuel CO2 emissions from the Sacramento region, using a mass balance approach. The resulting emissions are uncertain to within a factor of two due to uncertainties in wind speed and boundary layer height. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate urban-scale CO2ff from atmospheric radiocarbon measurements shows that CO2ff can be used to verify and improve emission inventories for many poorly known anthropogenic species, separate biospheric CO2, and indicates the potential to constrain CO2ff emissions if transport uncertainties are reduced.

Abstract We report the CH4 emission flux from the city of Indianapolis, IN, the site of the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) project for developing, assessing, and improving top-down and bottom-up approaches for quantifying urban greenhouse gas emissions. Using an aircraft-based mass balance approach, we find that the average CH4 emission rate from five flight experiments in 2011 is 135 ± 58 (1σ) moles s-1 (7800 ± 3300 kg hr-1). The effective per capita CH4 emission rate for Indianapolis is 77 kg CH4 person-1 yr-1, a figure that is less than the national anthropogenic CH4 emission (∼91 kg CH4 person-1 yr-1) but considerably larger than the global figure (∼48 kg CH4 person-1 yr-1). We consistently observed elevated CH4 concentrations at specific coordinates along our flight transects downwind of the city. Inflight investigations as well as back trajectories using measured wind directions showed that the elevated concentrations originated from the southwest side of the city where a landfill and a natural gas transmission regulating station (TRS) are located. Street level mobile measurements downwind of the landfill and the TRS supported the results of aircraft-based data, and were used to quantify the relative contributions from the two sources. We find that the CH4 emission from the TRS was negligible relative to the landfill, which was responsible for 33 ± 10% of the citywide emission flux. A regression of propane versus methane from aircraft flask samples suggests that the remaining citywide CH4 emissions (∼67%) derive from the natural gas distribution system. We discuss the combination of surface mobile observations and aircraft city-wide flux measurements to determine the total flux and apportionment to important sources.

Urban regions emit a large fraction of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that contribute to modern-day climate change. As such, a growing number of urban policymakers and stakeholders are adopting emission reduction targets and implementing policies to reach those targets. Over the past two decades research teams have established urban GHG monitoring networks to determine how much, where, and why a particular city emits GHGs, and to track changes in emissions over time. Coordination among these efforts has been limited, restricting the scope of analyses and insights. Here we present a harmonized data set synthesizing urban GHG observations from cities with monitoring networks across North America that will facilitate cross-city analyses and address scientific questions that are difficult to address in isolation.

Responses to COVID-19 have resulted in unintended reductions of city-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here, we detect and estimate decreases in CO2 emissions in Los Angeles and Washington DC/Baltimore during March and April 2020. We present three lines of evidence using methods that have increasing model dependency, including an inverse model to estimate relative emissions changes in 2020 compared to 2018 and 2019. The March decrease (25%) in Washington DC/Baltimore is largely supported by a drop in natural gas consumption associated with a warm spring whereas the decrease in April (33%) correlates with changes in gasoline fuel sales. In contrast, only a fraction of the March (17%) and April (34%) reduction in Los Angeles is explained by traffic declines. Methods and measurements used herein highlight the advantages of atmospheric CO2 observations for providing timely insights into rapidly changing emissions patterns that can empower cities to course-correct CO2 reduction activities efficiently.

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate.

We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four "extra-urban" sites including two "marine" sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one "continental" site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one "continental/mid-troposphere" site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ~1 ppm CO2 and ~10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. "Urban" and "suburban" sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ~20 ppm CO2 and ~150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ~15 ppm CO2 and ~80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00-16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine background estimate is ~10 and ~15 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement near downtown LA for CO2 and CH4, respectively. Overall, analytical and background uncertainties are small relative to the local CO2 and CH4 enhancements; however, our results suggest that reducing the uncertainty to less than 5 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement will require detailed assessment of the impact of meteorology on background conditions.

Relationships between boreal wildfire emissions and day-to-day variations in meteorological variables are complex and have important implications for the sensitivity of high-latitude ecosystems to climate change. We examined the influence of environmental conditions on boreal fire emissions and fire contributions to regional trace gas variability in interior Alaska during the summer of 2013 using two types of analysis. First, we quantified the degree to which meteorological and fire weather indices explained regional variability in fire activity using four different products, including active fires, fire radiative power, burned area, and carbon emissions. Second, we combined daily emissions from the Alaskan Fire Emissions Database (AKFED) with the coupled Polar Weather Research and Forecasting/Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model to estimate fire contributions to trace gas concentration measurements at the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment-NOAA Global Monitoring Division (CRV) tower in interior Alaska. Tower observations during two high fire periods were used to estimate CO and CH4 emission factors. We found that vapor pressure deficit and temperature had a level of performance similar to more complex fire weather indices. Emission factors derived from CRV tower measurements were 134 ± 25 g CO per kg of combusted biomass and 7.74 ± 1.06 g CH4 per kg of combusted biomass. Predicted daily CO mole fractions from AKFED emissions were moderately correlated with CRV observations (r = 0.68) and had a high bias. The modeling system developed here allows for attribution of emission factors to individual fires and has the potential to improve our understanding of regional CO, CH4, and CO2 budgets.

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥ 50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the zero curtain period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y(-1), ∼ 25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼ 6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

The implementation and accuracy of a low-rate (~1 Hz) horizontal wind measurement system is described for a fixed-wing aircraft without modification to the airframe. The system is based on a global positioning system (GPS) compass that provides aircraft heading and a ground-referenced velocity, which, when subtracted from the standard true airspeed, provides estimates of the horizontal wind velocity. A series of tests was performed flying "L"-shaped patterns above the boundary layer, where the winds were assumed to be horizontally homogeneous over the area bounded by the flight (approximately 25km2). Four headings were flown at each altitude at a constant airspeed. Scaling corrections for both heading and airspeed were found by minimizing the variance in the 1-s wind measurements; an upper limit to the error was then computed by calculating the variance of the corrected wind measurements on each of the four headings. A typical uncertainty found in this manner tends to be less than 0.2ms-1. The measurement system described herein is inexpensive and relatively easy to implement on single-engine aircraft. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

We investigated the ability of three planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate boundary layer turbulence in the "gray zone" (i.e., resolutions from 100 m to 1 km). The three schemes chosen are the well-established MYNN PBL scheme and the two newest PBL schemes added to WRF: the three-dimensional scale-adaptive turbulent kinetic energy scheme (SMS-3DTKE) and the E–ε parameterization scheme (EEPS). The SMS-3DTKE scheme is designed to be scale aware and avoid the double counting of TKE in simulations within the gray zone. We evaluated their performance using aircraft measurements obtained during three research flights immediately downwind of Manhattan, New York City, New York. The MYNN PBL scheme simulates TKE best, despite not being scale aware and slightly underestimating TKE from observations, whereas the SMS-3DTKE scheme appears to be overly scale aware for the three flights examined, in particular, when combined with the MM5 surface layer scheme. The EEPS scheme significantly underestimates TKE, mostly in the elevated layers of the boundary layer. In addition, we examined the impact of flow over tall buildings on observed TKE and found that only the windiest day showed a significant increase in TKE directly downwind of Manhattan. This impact was not reproduced by any of the model configurations, regardless of the land-use data selected, although the better resolved National Land Cover Database (NLCD) land use led to a slight improvement of the spatial distribution of TKE, implying that more explicit representation of the impact of tall buildings may be needed to fully capture their impact on boundary layer turbulence. Significance Statement: Because the majority of the world's population lives in cities, it is important to accurately simulate the atmosphere above and around these cities including the turbulence caused by tall buildings. This turbulence can significantly impact the mixing and dilution of air pollutants and other toxins in highly populated urban environments. The scale of cities often falls into what is known as the "gray zone" for turbulence modeling, which has been analyzed theoretically before but rarely in varied real-world conditions. Our analysis around New York City, New York, suggests that model turbulence schemes can match observations relatively well even at gray zone scales, although newer schemes require refinement, and all schemes tend to underestimate turbulence downwind of tall buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]