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During the past 15 years, doses have been reconstructed to members of the public who were exposed to radiation released from Cold War Era government facilities that supported the development and testing of nuclear weapons. A major component of these exposures resulted from releases of 131 I to the atmosphere. This paper addresses the public health implications of the combined exposures from the production of radioactive lanthanum at Oak Ridge which released 131 I, and 131 I deposited in the regions around Oak Ridge resulting from atmospheric weapons testing at the Nevada Test Site. Full application of uncertainty analysis is used to quantify estimates of thyroid dose, the excess lifetime risk of thyroid neoplasms, the risk of non-neoplastic disease at high exposures, and the probability that past exposure could be responsible for present thyroid disease. The results show that fallout 131 I is a substantial contributing factor to the total exposure and excess risk of thyroid cancer for those exposed as children residing downwind of local government installations. For many persons exposed in childhood, the upper confidence limit of the estimate of PC may exceed 50 %, regardless of the location where milk was produced.

We would like to make your readers aware of numerous concerns we have with respect to the paper by A. A. Simpkins and D. M. Hamby on Uncertainty in transport factors used to calculate historic dose from 131I releases at the Savannah River Site. The paper by Simpkins and Hamby concludes by saying their uncertainty analysis would add credibility to current dose reconstruction efforts of public exposures to historic releases of 131I from the operations at the Savannah River Site, yet we have found their paper to be afflicted with numerous errors in assumptions and methodology, which in turn lead to grossly misleading conclusions. Perhaps the most egregious errors are their conclusions, which state that: a. the vegetable pathway, not the ingestion of fresh milk, was the main contributor to thyroid dose for exposure to 131I (even though dietary intake of vegetables was less in the past than at present), and b. the probability distribution assigned to the fraction of iodine released in the elemental form (Uniform 0, 0.6) is responsible for 64.6% of the total uncertainty in thyroid dose, given a unit release of 131I to the atmosphere. The assumptions used in the paper by Simpkins and Hamby leadmore » to a large overestimate of the contamination of vegetables by airborne 131I. The interception by leafy and non-leafy vegetables of freshly deposited 131I is known to be highly dependent on the growth form of the crop and the standing crop biomass of leafy material. Unrealistic assumptions are made for losses of 131I from food processing, preparation, and storage prior to human consumption. These assumptions tend to bias their conclusions toward an overestimate of the amount of 131I retained by vegetation prior to consumption. For example, the generic assumption of a 6-d hold-up time is used for the loss from radioactive decay for the time period from harvest to human consumption of fruits, vegetables, and grains. We anticipate hold-up times of many weeks, if not months, between harvest and consumption for most grains and non-leafy forms of vegetation. The combined assumptions made by Simpkins and Hamby about the fraction of fresh deposition intercepted by vegetation, and the rather short hold-up time for most vegetables consumed, probably caused the authors to conclude that the consumption of 131I-contaminated vegetables was more important to dose than was the consumption of fresh sources of milk. This conclusion is surprising, given that the consumption rate assumed for whole milk was rather large and that the value of the milk transfer coefficient was also higher and more uncertain than most distributions reported in the literature. In our experience, the parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in dose for the 131I air-deposition-vegetation-milk-human-thyroid pathway are the deposition velocity for elemental iodine, the mass interception factor for pasture vegetation, the milk transfer coefficient, and the thyroid dose conversion factor. In none of our previous investigations has the consumption of fruits, vegetables, and grains been the dominant contributor to the thyroid dose (or the uncertainty in dose) when the individual also was engaged in the consumption of even moderate quantities of fresh milk. The results of the relative contribution of uncertain input parameters to the overall uncertainty in exposure are counterintuitive. We suspect that calculational errors may have occurred in their application of the software that was used to estimate the relative sensitivity for each uncertain input variable. Their claim that the milk transfer coefficient contributed only 4% to the total uncertainty in the aggregated transfer from release to dose, and that the uncertainty in the vegetation interception fraction contributed only 3.3%, despite relatively large uncertainties assigned to both of these variables, violates our sense of face validity.« less

This report presents an evaluation of inhalation doses in scenarios for exposure of military participants at atmospheric nuclear-weapons tests at the Nevada Test Site that involved unusually high resuspension of radionuclides in previously deposited fallout by the thermal pulse or blast (shock) wave produced in an above-ground detonation. The purpose of this evaluation was to determine values of a resuspension factor, defined as the ratio of the concentration of resuspended radionuclides in air above ground to the areal concentration on the ground surface, that should be assumed in those scenarios to ensure that point estimates of inhalation dose obtained in dose reconstruction would be credible upper bounds, i.e., at least upper 95% credibility limits.

This paper presents so-called radiation effectiveness factors that are intended to represent the biological effectiveness of different radiation types, relative to high-energy Co gamma rays, for the purpose of estimating cancer risks and probability of causation of radiogenic cancers in identified individuals. Radiation effectiveness factors are expressed as subjective probability distributions to represent uncertainty that arises from uncertainties in estimates of relative biological effectiveness obtained from radiobiological studies of stochastic endpoints, limited data on biological effectiveness obtained from human epidemiological studies, and other judgments involved in evaluating the applicability of available information to induction of cancers in humans. Primarily on the basis of reviews and evaluations of available data by experts, probability distributions of radiation effectiveness factors are developed for the following radiation types: neutrons of energy less than 10 keV, 10-100 keV, 0.1-2 MeV (including fission neutrons), 2-20 MeV, and greater than 20 MeV; alpha particles of any energy emitted by radionuclides; photons of energy 30-250 keV and less than 30 keV; and electrons of energy less than 15 keV. Photons of energy greater than 250 keV and electrons of energy greater than 15 keV are assumed to have the same biological effectiveness as reference Co gamma rays and are assigned a radiation effectiveness factor of unity, without uncertainty. For neutrons and alpha particles, separate probability distributions of radiation effectiveness factors are developed for solid tumors and leukemias, and small corrections to represent an inverse dose-rate effect are applied to those distributions in cases of chronic exposure. A radiation effectiveness factor different from unity for 15-60 keV electrons is discussed but is not adopted due to a lack of relevant radiobiological data. Radiation effectiveness factors presented in this paper are incorporated in the Interactive RadioEpidemiological Program and were developed for use by The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health and U.S. Department of Labor in evaluating claims for compensation for radiogenic cancers by workers at U.S. Department of Energy facilities.

Exposures of the American public occurred nationwide from the testing of nuclear weapons in the United States, the Pacific, and the former Soviet Union. After decades of diminished public awareness on the subject of health risks resulting from exposure to fallout, the release of the National Cancer Institute's 1997 report on nationwide exposure to 131I from the Nevada Test Site (NTS) has led to renewed interest. Public requests for information are focused on individual and family health problems, the right to credible and full disclosure of information, and the need for medical care and assistance for exposure-related health problems. Public concerns have been raised regarding: (a) the lack of information on the potential health risks from exposure to all biologically significant radionuclides in fallout; (b) the lack of independent oversight that includes public participation; (c) governmental portrayal of exposures averaged over very large segments of the population without identification of much larger values for individuals or population subgroups likely to be at highest risk; and (d) a governmental response to known or suspected human exposures that consumes large periods of time and devotes considerable funding to various research-related activities before serious consideration is given to addressing health care responsibilities to exposed individuals. To some extent, these complaints and concerns are rooted in the legacy of government secrecy surrounding the development and testing of nuclear weapons, public distrust of government sources of information about radiation exposures and health risks, and the imposition of past exposures without informed consent. Members of the public participating in the oversight of dose reconstruction projects and epidemiologic studies are requesting information on the total impact from all relevant sources of exposure at each site that might contribute significantly to an individual's risk, including exposure to local releases and to NTS and global fallout. Information is being requested on individual doses and risks from these cumulative exposures, with estimates of uncertainty, including estimates of the absorbed organ dose (as opposed to the effective dose), the risk of disease incidence as opposed to the risk of a cancer fatality, and the chance that a person's diagnosed disease was caused by past exposure (i.e., the probability of causation). This paper attempts to address some of these concerns. We conclude by noting that many individuals exposed in childhood during the 1950's to 131I in fallout from nuclear weapons production and testing would qualify for compensation and medical care if the present rules for the adjudication of claims for atomic veterans and radiation workers at DOE sites were to be extended to the public.