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This paper presents the global analysis of two extended decreases in the galactic cosmic-ray intensity observed by worldwide networks of ground-based detectors in 2012. This analysis is capable of separately deriving the cosmic-ray density (or omnidirectional intensity) and anisotropy, each as a function of time and rigidity. A simple diffusion model along the spiral field line between Earth and a cosmic-ray barrier indicates the long duration of these events, resulting from about 190° eastern extent of a barrier such as an interplanetary shock followed by the sheath region and/or the corotating interaction region (CIR). It is suggested that the coronal mass ejection merging with and compressing the preexisting CIR at its flank can produce such an extended barrier. The derived rigidity spectra of the density and anisotropy both vary in time during each event period. In particular we find that the temporal feature of the “phantom Forbush decrease (FD)” reported in an analyzed period is dependent on rigidity, and looks quite different at different rigidities. From these rigidity spectra of the density and anisotropy, we derive the rigidity spectrum of the average parallel mean free path of pitch angle scattering along the spiral field line and infer the power spectrum of the magnetic fluctuation and its temporal variation. The possible physical cause of the strong rigidity dependence of the phantom FD is also discussed. These results demonstrate the high-energy cosmic rays observed at Earth responding to remote space weather.

To this day, the prediction of space weather effects near the Earth suffers from a fundamental problem: The radial propagation speed of "halo" CMEs (i.e. CMEs pointed along the Sun-Earth-line that are known to be the main drivers of space weather disturbances) towards the Earth cannot be measured directly because of the unfavorable geometry. From inspecting many limb CMEs observed by the LASCO coronagraphs on SOHO we found that there is usually a good correlation between the radial speed and the lateral expansion speed Vexp of CME clouds. This latter quantity can also be determined for earthward-pointed halo CMEs. Thus, Vexp may serve as a proxy for the otherwise inaccessible radial speed of halo CMEs. We studied this connection using data from both ends: solar data and interplanetary data obtained near the Earth, for a period from January 1997 to 15 April 2001. The data were primarily provided by the LASCO coronagraphs, plus additional information from the EIT instrument on SOHO. Solar wind data from the plasma instruments on the SOHO, ACE and Wind spacecraft were used to identify the arrivals of ICME signatures. Here, we use "ICME" as a generic term for all CME effects in interplanetary space, thus comprising not only ejecta themselves but also shocks as well. Among 181 front side or limb full or partial halo CMEs recorded by LASCO, on the one hand, and 187 ICME events registered near the Earth, on the other hand, we found 91 cases where CMEs were uniquely associated with ICME signatures in front of the Earth. Eighty ICMEs were associated with a shock, and for 75 of them both the halo expansion speed Vexp and the travel time Ttr of the shock could be determined. The function Ttr=203-20.77*ln (Vexp) fits the data best. This empirical formula can be used for predicting further ICME arrivals, with a 95% error margin of about one day. Note, though, that in 15% of comparable cases, a full or partial halo CME does not cause any ICME signature at Earth at all; every fourth partial halo CME and every sixth limb halo CME does not hit the Earth (false alarms). Furthermore, every fifth transient shock or ICME or isolated geomagnetic storm is not caused by an identifiable partial or full halo CME on the front side (missing alarms).

We present height-time diagrams of the halo coronal mass ejection observed on July 25th (1999) from the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO), on board of the Solar and Heliopheric Observatory (SOHO) able to observe the solar corona from 2 to 32 solar radii. We used a technique in which the LASCO images are divided in angular slices and placed side by side at different observation times, thus producing height-time diagrams. We identify a small deceleration of the July 25th halo CME around the south pole of the sun.

For a set of 16 magnetic cloud events measured at 1 AU we investigated the magnetic field and plasma parameters in order to characterize the pressure differences between the structure and the environment. The asymmetry profile of the magnetic cloud field strength seems to be related to the magnetic pressure difference between the front and the rear medium, possibly by a compression process.

Para un grupo de 16 nubes magnéticas observadas a 1 UA se realizó un estudio del campo magnético y de los parámetros del plasma con objeto de caracterizar la diferencia de presiones entre las nubes del medio circundante. La asimetría del perfil de la intensidad del campo magnético de la nube parece estar relacionada con la diferencia de presiones magnéticas entre las partes frontal y posterior del medio ambiente, debido probablemente a un proceso de compresión. Se describen brevemente algunas consecuencias geofísicas. doi: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2000.39.1.309

Introduction: Older patients are at higher risk of chemotherapy-induced toxicity, raising interest in less toxic anti-HER2 regimens for older persons with HER2-positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Patients and methods: This phase II study randomized (1:1) patients with HER2+ MBC, aged 70+ or frail 60+, to first line chemotherapy with metronomic oral cyclophosphamide (M) + Trastuzumab (T) and Pertuzumab (P) or TP alone. T-DM1 was offered in case of progression. Results: In total, 39 and 41 patients were randomized to TP and TPM arm respectively. Median follow-up is 54.0 months. 24-month PFS was 18.7% (95% CI 8.2–32.4) and 28.7% (95% CI 15.8–43.0), respectively. A total of 49 (61.3%) patients died of whom 37 (75.5%) from disease progression; number of deaths per arm was 27 (69.2%) for TP and 22 (53.7%) for TPM. There was no significant difference in OS between the two arms (median OS TP vs TPM: 32.1 vs 37.5 months, p 0.25). Among the 40 patients who have started T-DM1 after disease progression on TP/TPM, PFS rate at 6 months after start of T-DM1 was 43.6% (95% CI: 27.7–58.5) and grade 3 or higher AE occurred in 18 pts (45%). Conclusions: Metronomic chemotherapy-based dual blockade (TPM), followed by T-DM1 after progression, provides an active and relatively well tolerated treatment option in an older/frail HER2+ MBC population, with a median survival of over 3 years. Nevertheless, the majority of this older/frail population died from breast cancer, highlighting the need for well tolerated and efficacious treatments in these patients.