1. The role of atmospheric forcing in the mass balance and evolution of a debris-covered Himalayan glacier
- Author
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Schlich-Davies, Anya Marie, Ross, Andrew, and Quincey, Duncan
- Subjects
551.31 - Abstract
The Hindu Kush–Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH) hold the largest ice mass outside of the poles. It is estimated that 1.9 billion people depend on the major rivers that are partially sustained by meltwater from these glaciers. Glacier mass loss has accelerated over the last decade and predictions indicate that this will continue over the next century, though vary widely and are based on relatively simplistic representations of climate and glacier behaviour. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the impact of climatic drivers on glacier mass balance, and how a robust representation of mass balance influences longer-term evolution of debris-covered Khumbu Glacier in the Nepal Himalaya. A cross-disciplinary modelling approach is adopted, utilising meteorological observations and regional climate models to aid downscaling of presentday and future climate, which is used to force a distributed energy balance model. The distributed mass balance results are integrated into a 3D higher-order ice flow model to study glacier evolution under historical and future atmospheric forcing. Energy balance modelling results demonstrate that the meteorological drivers of Khumbu Glacier mass balance vary substantially over space and time. The seasonality is more marked at lower elevations, where net shortwave radiation provides much of the energy available for melt, though net longwave radiation contributes appreciably during the monsoon. Despite temperatures remaining below freezing in the Western Cwm, ablation through sublimation is simulated. The calculation of a sub-debris ablation curve for Khumbu Glacier is applied to simulated clean-ice mass balance, improving glacier-wide and altitudinal ablation rates relative to observations. By 2100, temperature is found to increase by 1.8? to 3.9? depending on the emission scenario, with highest warming in the winter. Over the coming 80 years, precipitation increases by 15%, though varies substantially between models, demonstrating the high uncertainty regarding future precipitation trends. The value of forcing the ice flow model with distributed mass balance is seen in the simulated present-day velocities, particularly of the Khumbu icefall, which match closely with remote-sensing observations. The results indicate that the stagnant debris-covered tongue has already dynamically, and perhaps physically, detached from the active Khumbu Glacier. The significant recent warming means that the active section of Khumbu Glacier is committed to a 22% volume loss by 2100, and 34% by 2300. Future increased precipitation can act to offset the impact of moderate warming on glacier mass balance. However, under the most extreme warming scenario, mass loss is significant, particularly during the monsoon. Despite having the world's highest accumulation area, Khumbu Glacier may cease to exist by 2160.
- Published
- 2021