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Liquidity is the ease of converting an asset (physical/digital) into cash or another asset without loss and is shown by the relationship between the time scale and the price scale of an investment. This article examines the illiquidity of Bitcoin (BTC). Bitcoin hash rate information was collected at three different time intervals; parallel to these data, textual information related to these intervals was collected from Twitter for each day. Due to the regression nature of illiquidity prediction, approaches based on recurrent networks were suggested. Seven approaches: ANN, SVM, SANN, LSTM, Simple RNN, GRU, and IndRNN, were tested on these data. To evaluate these approaches, three evaluation methods were used: random split (paper), random split (run) and linear split (run). The research results indicate that the IndRNN approach provided better results., Peer Reviewed

The global food system is characterized by market concentration and oligopoly. In our article, we focus on the most powerful input supply and machinery companies and analyze how these firms create value, both economic and otherwise, from big data. In digital capitalism, data is valorized across sectors; personal data is aggregated into large-scale datasets, a practice that feeds economic concentration and monopolization. Big data also has become central to the business model for agricultural companies; it is a claim made by the companies themselves. Yet, little is known about their specific strategies to do so. We aim to fill this gap, asking how is agricultural data transformed into value by the most powerful agribusinesses and ag-tech firms? Through the lens of assetization, we examine corporate strategies for transforming agricultural data into value. We draw on literature from food studies, specifically political economic analyses of the historical practices of agricultural corporations, as well as literature from critical data studies that investigates data as an asset. For our analysis, we rely on a variety of gray literature and public-facing documents: financial documents, sustainability and shareholder reports, terms of use, license agreements, and news articles. Our results contribute to the critical data studies literature on agricultural big data by identifying three main strategies of assetization: securing relationships and dependence, price-setting and data sharing, and product development and targeted marketing. The strategies have socio-ecological implications; our results indicate the reproduction of asymmetrical power relations in the agri-food system favoring corporations and the continuation of long-standing dynamics of inequalities., Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttps://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347, Peer Reviewed

The COVID-19 pandemic plunged economies into recessions and advancements in artificial intelligence create widespread automation of job tasks. A debate around how to address these challenges has moved the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI) center stage. However, existing UBI research mainly focuses on economic aspects and normative arguments but lacks an individual perspective that goes beyond examining the association between socio-demographic characteristics and UBI support. We add to this literature by investigating not only socio-demographic but also psychological predictors of UBI acceptance in a multivariate analysis using a representative sample of the German working population collected in 2020 (N = 1986). Our results indicate that being more supportive of a UBI went along with being comparably younger, of East-German origin, and more in favor of equal living standards, as well as perceiving one’s economic situation to be worse and the threat of the corona-pandemic to be higher., Peer Reviewed

Was sind Diffusionsmodelle? Wie funktionieren sie? Können sie basierend auf Text Prompts Bilder generieren die zum Trainieren von Klassifizierungsalgorithmen genutzt werden? Dies sind die Hauptfragen, die ich in dieser Arbeit zu beantworten versuchen werde. Ich werde versuchen, verschiedene Bilder von statistischen Diagrammen, die aus der Open-Source-Bibliothek Wikimedia Commons stammen, zu klassfizieren. Insgesamt enthält diese Bibliothek fast 100 Millionen Medienelemente. Eine laissez - faire Politik bezüglich der Erstellung von Kategorien und dem Hochladen von Bildern, hat zu vielen unbeschrifteten oder falsch klassifizierten Bildern sowie zum Teil sehr kleinen Nischenklassen geführt. Ich werde diese Probleme angehen, indem ich Bildklassifizierungsalgorithmen auf bereinigten Datensätzen von Instanzen ausgewählter Kategorien trainiere. Ich werde daraufhin die Trainings- und Validierungssets mit variierend vielen generitren Bildern erweitern und untersuchen wie sich verschiedene Performanzmetriken in Abhängigkeit von der Anzahl bzw. dem Anteil der generierten Bilddaten verändern. Ich werde einige Ergebnisse präsentieren. Zwei Haupterkenntnisse sind, dass die generative Dateierweiterung sehr gut für konzeptionell unterschiedliche Kategorien funktioniert und bei ähnlicheren Klassen weniger gute Ergebnisse liefert., What are diffusion models? How do they work? Can they improve image classification algorithms? These are the main questions I will try to answer in this thesis. I will try to label different images of statistical charts that originate from the open-source library Wikimedia Commons. In total, this library contains almost 100 million media elements. A loose policy regarding the creation of categories and the uploading of images has led to a lot of unlabeled or falsely classified images. Another challenge when labeling the images on Wikimedia Commons is that some niche classes are very small. I will tackle these problems by training image classification algorithms on cleaned data sets of selected categories. I will enhance the training and validation sets with different amounts of artificial images. While there are many exciting results, the most important one is that generative data augmentation seems to work well for major categories but not that well for niche categories, which are similar conceptually.

Diese Dissertation behandelt die Erwerbstätigkeit von Müttern, Fertilität und die Entwicklung von Kindern in Deutschland. In Kapitel zwei evaluieren wir den Effekt der Elterngeldreform von 2007. Zunächst zeigen wir die „child penalty“, den Effekt der Mutterschaft auf die Erwerbstätigkeit. Wir verwenden dann die errechneten „child penalties“ vor und nach der Reform, um zu zeigen, dass die Reform positive Effekte auf die mittelfristige Erwerbstätigkeit hatte. Kapitel drei konzentriert sich auf die sogenannten „Cash-for-Care“-Transferleistungen für Eltern von ein- bis zweijährigen Kindern. Ich zeige eine signifikante Reduzierung der Beschäftigung bei Migrantinnen, wenn die potenziellen Leistungen erhöht werden. Es gibt positive Auswirkungen auf die Fertilität. Keine signifikanten Effekte finde ich für die Entwicklung der Kinder. In Kapitel vier untersuchen wir den Effekt der deutschen Ganztagsgrundschulen auf die Schulkinder. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen positive Auswirkungen auf die Schulleistungen. Wir stellen auch signifikante positive Peer-Effekte der Ganztagsprogramme fest. Allerdings finden wir nicht, dass diese Programme zur Verringerung der Ungleichheit im Schulsystem beitragen. Kapitel fünf behandelt die Untererfassung von Teilzeit in den administrativen Arbeitsmarktdaten, welche bis 2011 vorkam. Wir entwickeln eine Korrekturmethode für fehlerhalft als Vollzeit registrierte Teilzeitbeschäftigungsverhältnisse. Die Korrektur hat Auswirkungen auf die Entwicklung der Lohnungleichheit, aber auch die Müttererwerbstätigkeit. Zusammenfassend befasst sich meine Dissertation mit dem Zeitraum von der Geburt bis zur Grundschule und untersucht Effekte auf Mütter und Kinder. Darüber hinaus wird die fehlerhafte Erfassung von Teilzeitbeschäftigungen in den administrativen Arbeitsmarktdaten adressiert. Die Arbeit zielt darauf ab, wertvolle Erkenntnisse über die Auswirkungen von Transferleistungen und die Gestaltung von Grundschulprogrammen auf Familien in Deutschland zu liefern., This dissertation examines various aspects related to maternal employment, fertility and the skill development of children in Germany. In chapter two, we develop an estimation method for the causal effect of the 2007 parental benefits reform in Germany. Therefore, we first estimate the "child penalty'' on employment outcomes, then we use the estimated child penalties before and after reform implementation to assess reform effects. We find that the reform had positive effects on medium-run employment. Chapter three focuses on the so-called "cash-for-care''-transfers for parents of children aged one to two. I find a significant reduction of employment for migrant mothers if the potential benefit amount is increased. There are positive effects on fertility for the average of the population. However, I do not find significant effects on the skill development of children. In chapter four, we study the expansions of German all-day schools and their impact on children's outcomes. Our findings reveal evidence of positive impacts on children's achievements. We also show significant positive peer effects from classmates attending all-day programs. However, we do not find significant evidence that these programs significantly contribute to decreasing inequality in the German school system. Chapter five addresses an important aspect in the administrative labor market data. By developing a correction for misreported part-time employment spells which happened in the years prior 2011. The corrected data have implications for studying wage inequality, but also for studying maternal employment as the part-time share is very high among mothers of young children. In summary, this dissertation studies the period from birth to primary school. It covers topics such as maternal employment, fertility and skill development. Additionally, it addresses the data problem of misreported part-time spells in the administrative labor market data and presents a correction methodology.

We study the dynamics of capital accumulation, income inequality, capital concentration, and voting up to 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian regions, we re-evaluate the famous Revisionism Debate between orthodox Marxists and their critics. We show that changes in capital accumulation led to a rise in the capital share and income inequality, as predicted by orthodox Marxists. But against their predictions, this did neither lead to further capital concentration nor to more votes for the socialists. Instead, trade unions and strike activity limited income inequality and fostered political support for socialism, as argued by the Revisionists., Peer Reviewed

Given the assumption that weather risks affect crop yields, we designed a weather index insurance product for soybean producers in the US state of Illinois. By separating the entire vegetation cycle into four growth stages, we investigate whether the phase-division procedure contributes to weather–yield loss relation estimation and, hence, to basis risk mitigation. Concretely, supposing stage-variant interaction patterns between temperature-based weather index growing degree days and rainfall-based weather index cumulative rainfall, a nonparametric weather–yield loss relation is estimated by a generalized additive model. The model includes penalized B-spline (P-spline) approach based on nonlinear optimal indemnity solutions under the expected utility framework. The P-spline analysis of variance (PS-ANOVA) method is used for efficient estimation through mixed model re-parameterization. The results indicate that the phase-division models significantly outperform the benchmark whole-cycle ones either under quadratic utility or exponential utility, given different levels of risk aversions. Finally, regarding hedging effectiveness, the expected utility ratio between the phase-division contract and the whole-cycle contract, and the percentage changes of mean root square loss and variance of revenues support the proposed phase-division contract., Peer Reviewed

This study investigates the increased commercialization of African indigenous vegetables (AIV)—former subsistence crops such as African nightshade, cowpea leaves and amaranth species grown mainly by women—from a feminist economics perspective. The study aims to answer the following research question: How does AIV commercialization affect the gendered division of labor, women’s participation in agricultural labor, their decision-making power, and their access to resources? We analyze commercialization’s effects on gender relations in labor and decision-making power and also highlight women’s agency. Based on a mixed method design and analyzing household-level panel data and qualitative focus groups from Kenya, we observe an economic empowerment of women that we relate to women’s individual and collective strategies as well as their retention of control over AIV selling and profits. Yet, while we see economic empowerment of women through commercialization—how they broaden their scope of action and are empowered by generating revenue—that does not contribute to a redistribution of labor or land rights, which are key for gender equality, instead it increases women’s labor burden., Peer Reviewed

We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. Ninety-eight models motivated by economic theory are compared to a boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks are considered. We show that the typical estimation methods are likely to lead to fallacious policy conclusions, which motivates the use of a new approach that we propose in this paper. The boosting algorithm outperforms theory-based models. Furthermore, we extend the current software implementation of conditional Akaike Information Criteria for additive mixed models with observation weights. We present a novel two-step selection process suitable for a wide range of applications that enables to empirically compare theory- and data-driven models with varying data availability., Peer Reviewed

Market-driven, profit-oriented, mainstream neoclassical economics is increasingly being challenged by alternative approaches such as heterodox economics. This article contributes to broader discussions in this field, especially of social provisioning, and suggests that integrating perspectives from the overlapping fields of media history and history of economy could not only provide valuable insights and attract more supporters, but even initiate a bottom-up transformation process. Historical knowledge regarding how neoclassical economics gained mainstream status in the early postwar decades provides hints on how to popularize non-profit-driven, well-designed approaches to social provisioning, often referred to as commoning. More specifically, the article firstly addresses the necessity of a large-scale appropriation of computational methods, procedures, tools, media, and models to experiment with economic issues, which are usually applied mostly by mainstream profit-driven approaches. Secondly, it presents the implications of such a practice, which I tentatively refer to as heterodox modeling, while remembering the 1960s North American context of business simulation games and their role within the large-scale effort to educate and train the newly-defined class of “business managers.” The article, thirdly, theorizes heterodox modeling as being based on a still imaginary, not-yet implemented, networked multi-agent online environment, which would integrate the modular programming of agent-based models, group exercises, role-playing, gaming, and testing of operations and processes within large-scale socio-ecological networks of commoning. Finally, the article argues not only to model heterodox economic theories, but at the same time to model in heterodox ways and highlight associated implications., Peer Reviewed

Empirical studies show that smallholder farmers can benefit from collective action by improving their crop production and access to better markets. Although there are numerous studies on the effects of collective action on production and marketing of staple crops, such studies, particularly on the analysis of gender and collective action, are scarce for underutilized crops such as baobab. To address this gap, we estimate the impacts of cooperative membership on baobab income and food security, using data collected from a survey of 864 baobab collectors in Malawi. We employ the Inverse Probability Weight Regression Adjustment estimator to account for selection bias. We also analyse heterogeneity in the impact of cooperatives attributable to gender. We find that cooperative membership increases baobab income, household dietary diversity score, and food consumption score by 3.57%, 11%, and 5.6%, respectively. However, the welfare outcome of cooperative members differs based on gender. In particular, households with male baobab managers that are cooperative members have higher income and are more food secure. Households with unmarried female managers have better welfare outcomes. The results, therefore, highlight the need to promote collective action through cooperatives in the underutilized crop sector to enhance household welfare., Peer Reviewed

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Standard (S, s) models of lumpy investment allow us to match many aspects of the micro data, but it is well known that the implied interest rate sensitivity of investment is unrealistically large. In fact, the micro-level lumpiness in investment puts empirical discipline on the modeling of investment decisions, and this makes it hard to explain the monetary policy transmission mechanism., Peer Reviewed

Recent disruptions in international trade have had significant impacts on consumers and producers worldwide and stemmed from various reasons. This study aims to identify key vulnerabilities in EU agriculture by examining an import stop on food and feed products. By conducting this stylised simulation using a global PE model (CAPRI), the authors analyse the adjustment mechanisms within the sector, investigate regional differences within the EU and test the model's ability to depict such a comprehensive scenario. The findings suggest that oilseeds are most affected by an import stop due to their high import share. Meat is indirectly impacted as it relies on imported soy for animal feed, whereas other products with high self-sufficiency levels are hardly affected. In response to the import stop, EU production expands, increasing nitrogen surpluses, particularly in regions already facing critical levels. Meat production partially moves out of the EU, increasing global GHG emissions. EU consumers are negatively affected by increased prices, leading to an overall welfare decrease in the EU with exceptions for few member states. Alongside EU imports, exports decrease, affecting prices and welfare outside the EU. In the least developed countries, prices increase especially for products that are already consumed less than recommended., Peer Reviewed

Digital platforms play an increasingly important role in the everyday work practices of creative entrepreneurs and contribute to how their ventures take shape. Taking this observation as a starting point, this paper aims to explore the entanglement of entrepreneurial, artistic, and creative practices and processes with digital platforms. Drawing on interviews and online observations, the study traces the work practices of two creative producers, a textile designer in Berlin, Germany, and a filmmaker in Bengaluru, India, who both extensively use the social media platform Instagram for their work. Based on the two in-depth case studies, we advance the term creative digipreneurs to reflect the close relationship between the platform, the entrepreneur, and the artistic venture. Creative digipreneurs represent a novel hybrid role that includes the work practices of independent cultural producers, artists, independent entrepreneurs, and creators. This novel perspective allows us to 1) analyse how creative digipreneurs build up a creative venture while relating to people, the local creative scene in the respective cities, and to digital technologies such as Instagram. The platform-mediated situation of the creative digipreneurs allows us to reflect on the entanglement of online and offline spaces in the entrepreneurial artistic process. 2) We demonstrate that while Instagram presents an important opportunity for the creative development, marketing, and sales of the creative product; it also introduces novel constraints., Peer Reviewed

The transition towards the circular economy (CE) is one of the major priorities of the European Union (EU). By observing its benefits through the prism of sustainable development, this study aims to reveal the intricate relationships between the CE and the economy–society–environment nexus across 27 EU countries during the period from 2012 to 2020. Utilizing an extensive dataset comprising 243 observations drawn from the EUROSTAT database, we employed a panel data analysis. In this research, we quantified the impact of CE indicators on key dependent variables: GDP per capita (economic dimension), mortality, morbidity, and the welfare cost associated with exposure to environment-related risks (social dimension) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the environmental realm. The findings of our study illuminate the multifaceted connections between circular economy practices and the broader goals of sustainable development within the EU-27 context. The CE indicators aggregated at the EU level not only have a beneficial impact on the economy but also on society and the environment. The analysis reveals that each of the six explanatory variables incorporated into the models exhibits the anticipated relationship with at least one of the outcome variables. This research contributes valuable insights for policymakers, public authorities, and other stakeholders seeking to enhance the circular economy landscape in respective countries., Peer Reviewed

This paper reports the results of a field experiment investigating how attributes of carbon footprint information affect consumer choice in a large dining facility. Our hypotheses and research methods were preregistered via the Journal of Accounting Research’s registration-based editorial process. Manipulating the measurement units and visualizations of carbon footprint information on food labels, we quantify effects on consumers’ food choices. Treated consumers choose less carbon-intensive dishes, reducing their food-related carbon footprint by up to 9.2%, depending on the treatment. Effects are strongest for carbon footprint information expressed in monetary units (“environmental costs”) and color-coded in the familiar traffic-light scheme. A postexperimental survey shows that these effects obtain although few respondents self-report concern for the environmental footprint of their meal choices. Our study contributes to the accounting literature by using an information-processing framework to shed light on the information usage and decision-making processes of an increasingly important user group of accounting information: consumers., Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, Peer Reviewed

This study explores the role of trait self-control in individuals’ changes in performance and well-being when working from home (WFH). In a three-wave longitudinal study with UK workers in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that low self-control workers experienced a significant positive adjustment to WFH over time: The number of reported work distractions decreased, and self-assessed performance increased over the period of four months. In contrast, high self-control individuals did not show a similar upward trajectory. Despite the positive adjustment of low self-control individuals over time, on average, self-control was still positively associated with performance and negatively associated with work distractions. However, trait self-control was not consistently associated with changes in well-being. These findings provide a more nuanced view on trait self-control, suggesting that low self-control individuals can improve initial performance over time when working from home., Peer Reviewed

The omission of pension wealth potentially distorts the international comparison of wealth distributions. Private pension wealth is often included in households’ wealth portfolios, while public pension claims are not. Augmented wealth, the sum of net worth and pension wealth, resolves this limitation by including the present value of social security pension wealth. This article provides a detailed analysis of augmented wealth in Australia between 2002 and 2018, capturing the establishment of the compulsory private pension scheme, Superannuation, which was introduced in 1992. Augmented wealth is slightly less equally distributed in Australia than in Germany or Switzerland but more equal than in the United States. The article also explores the relationship between Superannuation dissaving rates and the means-tested public pension scheme, Age Pension, and its distributional implications., Peer Reviewed

Diese Dissertation umfasst drei Studien. Die erste Studie untersucht Overprecision („Überpräzision“). Ich untersuche, wie Menschen Spannweitenschätzungen vornehmen. Teilnehmende müssen die Größe der Spannweite (Präzision) mit der Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass sie den wahren Wert einschließt (Richtigkeit) balancieren. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Menschen inhärente individuelle Vorlieben für Präzision zu haben scheinen. Gleichzeitig werden vorhersagbar zusätzliche Informationen genutzt, um die Richtigkeit der Schätzungen zu erhöhen. Dafür wird entweder Präzision geopfert, oder die Spannweitenschätzung insgesamt verschoben. Die Richtigkeit der Schätzung wird jedoch nicht maximiert, sondern ein Teil für höhere Präzision aufgegeben. Die zweite Studie untersucht, wie sich die Übersetzung von Finanzberichterstattung auf die Wahrnehmung einer Firma als attraktives Investment auswirkt. Sie beleuchtet drei verschiedene Kanäle: Lesbarkeit, Stimmung, und Präzision der Veröffentlichung. In einem Umfrageexperiment lesen Kleinanleger deutsche und englische Prognoseberichte deutscher Firmen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die deutschen Berichte als besser lesbar wahrgenommen werden. Im Gegensatz zu vorheriger Literatur ist die Lesbarkeit nicht mit einer höheren Investmentattraktivität korreliert. Allein die Stimmung des Textes zeigt eine Korrelation mit höherer Attraktivität. Die dritte Studie untersucht, wie das Angebot von formativen Onlinetests die Leistungen von Studierenden in der Klausur beeinflusst. Sie untersucht zudem, ob die Leistung sich unterscheidet, je nachdem ob die Studierenden zeitlich begrenzten Zugang zu den Tests haben oder ob sie jederzeit auf die Tests zugreifen können. Ein Experiment, welches es ermöglicht den kausalen Intention-to-treat-Effekt zu bestimmen, zeigt, dass die formativen Onlinetests die Studienleistung erhöhen können, allerdings nur für Studierende, welche sich nicht freiwillig für die Tests gemeldet hatten und in der kontinuierlichen Lerngruppe waren., This dissertation comprises three papers. The first study examines overprecision. I examine how people provide range estimates, a challenging task that requires people to balance the width of the range (i.e., its precision) with the probability of the range covering the true value (i.e., accuracy). I find that people appear to have inherent individual preferences for a certain level of precision. At the same time, they appear to predictably incorporate additional information in order to increase accuracy by either sacrificing precision or shifting their ranges altogether. Still, they do not seem to maximise accuracy, but are willing to expend some of it to provide more precise estimates. The second study examines how the translation of financial disclosures changes investors’ perceptions of firms as an attractive investment. It examines three possible channels: readability, tone, and precision of the underlying disclosure. In a survey experiment, retail investors read forecast reports of German firms, provided in German and English. The findings indicate that the German versions are easier to read. Contrary to prior literature, the easier readability does not translate into higher investment attractiveness. Solely tone appears to be correlated with investment attractiveness. The third study analyses how offering formative online assessments influences student performance in the final exam. It further examines whether students perform differently depending on whether they have time-restricted access to the assessments, or whether they can access the assessments at any time. An experiment which allows for the identification of the causal intention-to-treat effect shows that offering formative online assessments can enhance student performance, but only for students who do not opt for taking the test voluntarily and who are in a continuous learning environment.

The notion of a nation-specific inflation trauma among the German population is ubiquitous in the public debate in Germany and beyond. Because of its experience with hyperinflation in 1923, the German population fears rising prices and favors stability-oriented monetary as well as fiscal policy. It is less clear, however, whether this contemporary understanding of the German inflation trauma is as old as its historical point of reference. The majority of the literature presumes that such a traumatic disposition has persisted since 1923 and has been transposed intergenerationally (persistence thesis). Others, however, point to an ex-ante reconstruction of past experiences (reconstruction thesis). By employing an interdisciplinary approach of methodological triangulation drawing on both methods of history and political sciences, we provide new insights on the question of origin. Specifically, we examine the remembrance of hyperinflation in personal memoirs and the German Bundestag in regard to the monetary and fiscal policy lessons connected to memories of 1923. Doing so, we find support for the logic of reconstruction. We show that the hyperinflation was not remembered unambiguously, and that memories were not immediately linked to specific policy lessons. Only from the 1980s onwards, a process of discursive alignment occurred that mirrors the contemporary understanding of the inflation trauma. By providing this insight, our paper allows to better understand the historical origins of today’s popular memory and its political uses., Not Reviewed

We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap approach based on the KLIC and an approach which involves multiple testing for differences of individual parts of the density. In addition, the test is computaionally much faster than the KLIC-based one, which relies on simulations, and allows for comparisons across multiple groups. Using density expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show the usefulness of the test in detecting possible changes in density expectations over time and across different types of forecasters.

Recently, much attention has been devoted to the measurement of macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. I document that the survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure offers a very efficient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many different expectations at low cost.

Sustainability standards have been one of the hopefuls for decades when it comes to ensuring the sustainability of biomass for the bioeconomy, especially in the wake of their evolvement from voluntary, non-governmental to hybrid, public–private governance instruments in recent years. In addition to doubts regarding their legitimacy and effectiveness, however, they have also been associated with a neoliberalization of nature that integrates natural resources into a free market logic. Drawing on a conceptual framework that builds on political ecology and the political sociology of policy instruments, this paper challenges this notion. To this end, it examines sustainability standards in three countries/regions particularly prominent for the bioeconomy—the EU, Brazil, and Indonesia—to illustrate how these can be differentiated in terms of their neoliberal orientation, and what can be inferred from this for the orientation and state of the respective bioeconomies. The results show that the introduction of sustainability standards is not necessarily accompanied by a neoliberalization of nature. Rather, it is shown that the standards and their specific designs—and thus also their intrinsic understanding of sustainability as integration—are primarily intended to serve the material interests of the state and the respective industrial factions, for which neoliberal configurations are sometimes seen as rather obstructive, sometimes as rather useful. The sustainability standards, and thus the bioeconomies for which they stand, therefore, rather serve as instruments to stay on the path of modernization and industrial development already taken or envisaged, or, put differently, as strategies to avoid social–ecological transformation., Peer Reviewed

Bilateral investment treaties constitute an important instrument to facilitate global investment. Recent discussions in political theory have highlighted several normative concerns raised by bilateral investment treaties. One worry is that investment treaties undermine national self-determination as they grant investors far-reaching protections that can be legally enforced. Another worry is that the benefits and burdens entailed in bilateral investment treaties are distributed unfairly in a way that benefits investors at the expense of states and disadvantaged groups within states. Instead of critiquing bilateral investment treaties from a perspective of global (distributive) justice, in this article I develop a class-based critique. This involves a twofold departure. First, the article shifts the focus from distributions to the power relations that are built into the global capitalist economy and that come into sharp relief in the practice of global investment. Second, rather than focusing on the relation between states and investors, I claim that in a class-based critique the relation between workers and investors should take centre stage. I argue that bilateral investment treaties are effectively an instrument of class domination, insofar as they reproduce and increase the power of transnational corporations while at the same time decreasing the power of workers., Peer Reviewed

The publication of this work was supported by the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin., What do we expect when we say something to someone, and what do they expect when they hear it? When is a conversation successful? The book considers a wide set of two-person conversations, and a bit of game theory, to show how conversational statements and their interpretations are governed by beliefs. Thinking about beliefs is suitable for communication analysis because beliefs are well-defined and measurable, allowing to differentiate between successful understandings and their less successful counterparts: misunderstandings. The book describes the theoretical framework and empirical measurements of misunderstandings – written by an economist, but in simple words and using interdisciplinary concepts. The material will benefit students and researchers of behavioural economics and its neighbouring fields, and anyone interested in human language., Peer Reviewed

Eines der grundlegenden Prinzipien der Verträge der Europäischen Union war die Förderung einer nachhaltigen und gerechten Entwicklung ihrer Mitgliedsländer. Um Disparitäten in Wohlstand, Einkommen und Chancen anzugehen, führte die EU die Europäischen Struktur- und Investitionsfonds (ESIFs) ein, eine Reihe finanzieller Instrumente, die aus fünf Hauptprogrammen bestehen. In meiner Bachelorarbeit habe ich mich auf die Rolle der ESIFs bei der Bewältigung der Heterogenität in den Entwicklungsstufen innerhalb der EU konzentriert. Mein Ziel war es, die Wirksamkeit der ESIFs durch eine gründliche Analyse von Paneldaten zu bewerten. Meine Forschung ergab, dass sie einen positiven Einfluss haben, um Disparitäten zwischen den Mitgliedsländern zu mildern., One of the fundamental principles of the European Union’s treaties was to promote a sustainable and equitable development of its member countries. To address disparities in wealth, income, and opportunities, the EU introduced the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIFs), a set of financial tools consisting of five main programmes. In my Bachelor’s thesis, I concentrated on the role of ESIFs in tackling the issue of heterogeneity in the levels of development within the EU. My objective was to assess the effectiveness of ESIFs by conducting a thorough panel data analysis. My research revealed that they have a favorable impact on mitigating disparities among the members.

Diese Dissertation besteht aus einer Einleitung und drei empirischen Kapiteln, die sich mit verschiedenen Aspekten der Offenmarktgeschäfte der Bank of England in der Zwischenkriegszeit befassen. Offenmarktgeschäfte sind der Kauf und Verkauf von kurzfristigen Staatsanleihen. Die Einleitung definiert Instrumente und Ziele der Geldpolitik und beschreibt welche Folgen die veränderte Rolle Großbritanniens in der Welt nach dem 1. Weltkrieg für die Geldpolitik hatte. Das zweite Kapitel zeigt, wie Offenmarktgeschäfte die verfügbare Liquidität auf dem Londoner Geldmarkt erhöhen oder senken können. Dies erlaubt die kurzfristigen Marktzinsen relativ zum Leitzins zu steuern, was wiederum häufige Änderungen der Leitzinsen unnötig machte. Die empirische Analyse zeigt, dass Offenmarktgeschäfte die Wahrscheinlichkeit verändern können, dass Marktteilnehmer sich Geld bei der Diskontfazilität leihen müssen. Das dritte Kapitel zeigt, dass Offenmarktgeschäfte noch weitere Zwecke erfüllen. In der Finanzkrise von 1931 trugen Offenmarktgeschäfte dazu bei die größten Geschäftsbanken in London vor größerem Schaden zu bewahren. Der Verlust von Goldreserven wurde durch Offenmarktgeschäfte in großem Maße kompensiert und stabilisierte so die Liquidität der Geschäftsbanken. Das vierte Kapitel zeigt, dass Offenmarktgeschäfte zudem eine entscheidende Rolle bei der Stabilisierung der kurzfristigen Marktzinsen nach Kriegsausbruch 1939 spielten. Die empirische Analyse zeigt wie sorgfältig gewählte Laufzeiten von Offenmarktgeschäften dazu beigetragen haben, übermäßige Schwankungen der kurzfristigen Marktzinsen zu verhindern. Insgesamt deutet diese Dissertation darauf hin, dass die Bank of England in der Zwischenkriegszeit ähnlich einer modernen Zentralbank agierte. Kurzfristige Marktzinsen waren das operatives Ziel der Geldpolitik und nicht die Zentralbankgeldmenge. Im Jahr 1931 zog die Bank of England es vor die Geschäftsbanken zu stützen, auch wenn dies die Aufgabe des festen Wechselkurses bedeutete., This dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three empirical chapters which deal with various aspects of open-market operations by the Bank of England during the interwar period. Open-market operations are the purchase and sale of Treasury bills. The introduction defines monetary policy implementation and describes the economic circumstances after World War I and outlines what consequences the changing role of Britain in the world had for monetary policy. The second chapter shows how open-market operations could add or drain liquidity in the London money market and help steer short-term market rates relative to the Bank rate, which made frequent changes in the Bank Rate unnecessary. The empirical analysis shows that open-market operations could change the probability of market participants having to borrow at the discount facility. The third chapter argues that in time of crisis the purpose of open-market operations goes further. During the financial crisis of 1931 open-market operations most likely helped to protect the largest clearing banks in London from severe harm. The empirical analysis shows how open-market operations offset the effect of reserves losses at an unprecedented scale and stabilized the liquidity of the London clearing banks. Chapter four examines the role of open-market operation after the outbreak of war in 1939. Open-market operations played a crucial role in stabilizing short-term market rates and preserving the London money market in its original form, most notably the London discount houses and clearing banks. The descriptive evidence shown suggests how carefully chosen maturities of open-market operations helped offset any undue disturbances to short-term market rates after the outbreak of war. Overall, this dissertation suggests that the Bank of England, not unlike modern central banks, targeted short-term market rates, not some monetary quantity, and chose banking stability over a fixed exchange rate in 1931.

The full-information rational expectations (FIRE) assumption is at the core of modern macroeconomics. We revisit recent evidence which rejects FIRE based on survey data. It relates forecast errors to news at different levels of aggregation. The evidence based on consensus forecasts testifies against the full-information assumption, the evidence based on data for individual forecasters against rational expectations. In contrast to earlier survey evidence that was largely dismissed as irrelevant, the recent evidence is likely to have a lasting impact for two reasons. First, the global financial crisis of 2007/08 has led to a certain uneasiness with the state of macro and a readiness to embrace new ideas. Second, the recent literature has put forward a number of promising alternative models of the expectation-formation process. We review these at the end of the paper.

Using firm-level data, we study how firm expectations adjust to news while accounting for a) the heterogeneity of news and b) the heterogeneity of firms. We classify news as either micro or macro, that is, information about firm-specific developments or information about the aggregate economy. Survey data for German and Italian firms allows us to reject rational expectations: Both types of news predict forecast errors at the firm level. Yet while firm expectations overreact to micro news, they underreact to macro news. We propose a general-equilibrium model where firms suffer from ‘island illusion’ to explain these patterns in the data.

Since the late 1960s, the rising volatility of financial markets in the US has troubled econometricians and bank managers alike. Both professions have found it increasingly difficult to forecast savings deposit flows. This article explores these challenges by focusing on two developments. First, it explores the internal adjustment process among econometric models of the savings deposit market. To achieve this aim, I use the so-called FMP (MPS) macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board since 1970 and the deposit forecast model of the Philadelphia Saving Fund Society (PSFS), the oldest and largest savings bank in the US. I find that economists failed to find timeless determinants for the market for savings deposits, partly because the determinants of expectation formation of households kept changing. Instead, economists relied on a large number of time-dependent dummy variables. Second, the article shows how the conditions of the market for savings deposits shaped the demand for macroeconomic forecast models. Here, I again use PSFS as a case study. I show that the demand for econometric models in the banking industry skyrocketed in the 1970s but abated somewhat in the 1980s. While the rising volatility led bank managers to seek sophisticated tools to predict deposit flows, the deregulation of the banking industry and the accompanying change in customer behavior devalued macro models as a reliable forecast technique for individual banks. Instead, it became crucial for banks to predict the future behavior of competing institutions.

The article processing charge was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) – 491192747 and the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin., Malnutrition continues to be a major problem with negative implications on economic and human development in many parts of the world, including in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Strengthening promising underutilized crops that are nutrient dense, climate resilient, and locally adaptable is an instrumental approach to enhancing dietary diversity. Due to their nutritional and economic benefits, African Indigenous Vegetables (AIVs) have the potential to contribute to livelihoods and address challenges of food and nutrition insecurity. Despite their importance but due to their perishability, AIVs tend to suffer from high post-harvest losses (PHLs). Effective distribution systems along the value chain have the potential to reduce PHLs for AIVs. We therefore conducted a scoping review on transport systems and coordination in AIVs value chains in SSA. The objectives of this review were to summarize and analyze the focus of research in AIVs transport, to analyze the extent to which the literature synthesizes interactions of sub-components of the chains, and to identify knowledge gaps in AIVs transport literature. Based on the research foci, we categorize the reviewed articles into seven themes. Our analyses indicate that distance to agricultural market is a fundamental aspect of AIVs transportation, as it interacts with transport costs, market participation, produce quality, and profit efficiency. Results show that collective action is instrumental in the coordination of AIVs transportation and that it contributes to cost reduction. Following light exploration of determinants of choice of means of transport, we recommend further research in this area for improvement of transportation in AIVs value chains., Peer Reviewed

Bitcoin Pricing Kernels (PKs) are estimated using a novel data set from Deribit, the leading Bitcoin options exchange. The PKs, as the ratio between risk-neutral and physical density, dynamically reflect the change in investor preferences. Thus, the PKs improve the understanding of investor expectations and risk premiums in a new asset class. Bootstrap-based confidence bands are estimated in order to validate the results. Investors are heterogeneous in their risk profiles and preferences with respect to volatility and investment horizon. The empirical PKs turn out to be U-shaped for short-dated instruments and W-shaped for long-dated instruments. We find that investors are willing to pay a substantial risk premium to insure themselves against short-term price movements. The risk premium is smaller for longer-dated instruments and their traders are risk averse. The shape of the empirical PKs reveals the existence of a time-varying risk premium. The similarity between the shape of empirical PKs for Bitcoin and other markets that represent aggregate wealth shows that Bitcoin is becoming an established asset class., Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Czech Science Foundation, Peer Reviewed

I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports’ priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in associated business cycle reports. I then employ a supervised approach to aggregate topics with similar themes, thus revealing the proportions of broader macroeconomic subjects. I obtain measures of forecasters’ subject priorities by extracting the subject proportions’ cyclic components. Correlating these priorities with key macroeconomic variables reveals consistent priority patterns throughout economic peaks and troughs. The forecasters prioritize inflation-related matters over recession-related considerations around peaks. This finding suggests that forecasters underestimate growth and overestimate inflation risks during contractive monetary policies, which might explain their failure to predict recessions. Around troughs, forecasters prioritize investment matters, potentially suggesting a better understanding of macroeconomic developments during those periods compared to peaks.

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers (De Gruyter) frei zugänglich., Peer Reviewed

This paper proposes a methodology for building Multivariate Time-Varying STCC–GARCH models. The novel contributions in this area are the specification tests related to the correlation component, the extension of the general model to allow for additional correlation regimes, and a detailed exposition of the systematic, improved modelling cycle required for such nonlinear models. There is an R-package that includes the steps in the modelling cycle. Simulations demonstrate the robustness of the recommended model building approach. The modelling cycle is illustrated using daily return series for Australia’s four largest banks., Peer Reviewed

We analyze price leadership in a Stackelberg game with incomplete information and imperfect commitment. Sequential play is induced by an information system, represented by a spy, that reports the price of one firm to its rival before the latter chooses its own price. However, the Stackelberg leader may secretly revise its price with some probability. Therefore, the spy’s message is only an imperfect signal. This gives rise to a complex signaling problem where both sender and receiver of messages have private information and the sender has a chance to take another action with some probability. We find partially separating and pooling equilibria that satisfy equilibrium refinements such as the intuitive criterion and support collusive outcomes., Peer Reviewed

This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture—the grain invasion from the Americas—in Prussia during the first globalisation (1870–913). We show that this shock led to a decline in the employment rate and overall income. However, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation, which we explain by a strong migration response. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine them with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian and United States trade data to isolate exogenous variation., Peer Reviewed

The cryptocurrency market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study the hedge behaviour and effectiveness for the class of affine jump diffusion models and infinite activity Lévy processes. First, market data is calibrated to stochastic volatility inspired-implied volatility surfaces to price options. To cover a wide range of market dynamics, we generate Monte Carlo price paths using an stochastic volatility with correlated jumps model, a close-to-actual-market GARCH-filtered kernel density estimation as well as a historical backtest. In all three settings, options are dynamically hedged with Delta, Delta–Gamma, Delta–Vega and Minimum Variance strategies. Including a wide range of market models allows to understand the trade-off in the hedge performance between complete, but overly parsimonious models, and more complex, but incomplete models. The calibration results reveal a strong indication for stochastic volatility, low jump frequency and evidence of infinite activity. Short-dated options are less sensitive to volatility or Gamma hedges. For longer-dated options, tail risk is consistently reduced by multiple-instrument hedges, in particular by employing complete market models with stochastic volatility., Peer Reviewed