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Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of risk factors and the Framingham risk score (FRS) is a useful metric for measuring the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of the population. The present study aimed to determine the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease using the Framingham risk score in people with and without MetS in a large Iranian cohort study. Methods This cross-sectional study was done using the Fasa cohort. Participants aged ≥ 35 years old were recruited to the study from 2015 to 2016. The FRS was calculated using age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. MetS was defined as the presence of three or more of the MetS risk factors including triglyceride (TG) level ≥ 150 mg dl− 1, HDL level

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of risk factors and the Framingham risk score (FRS) is a useful metric for measuring the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of the population. The present study aimed to determine the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease using the Framingham risk score in people with and without MetS in a large Iranian cohort study. Methods: This cross-sectional study was done using the Fasa cohort. Participants aged ≥ 35 years old were recruited to the study from 2015 to 2016. The FRS was calculated using age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. MetS was defined as the presence of three or more of the MetS risk factors including triglyceride (TG) level ≥ 150 mg dl− 1, HDL level < 40 mg dl− 1 in men and < 50 mg dl− 1 in women, systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≥ 130/≥85 mmHg or using medicine for hypertension, fasting blood sugar (FBS) level ≥ 100 mg dl− 1 or using diabetes medication and abdominal obesity considered as waist circumference (WC) ≥ 88 cm for women and ≥ 102 cm for men. Multiple logistic regressions were applied to estimate the 10- year CVD risk among people with and without MetS. Results: Of 8949 participants, 1928 people (21.6%) had MetS. The mean age of the participants with and without Mets was 50.4 ± 9.2 years and 46.9 ± 9.1 years respectively. In total 15.3% of participants with MetS and 8.0% of participants without MetS were in the high-risk category of 10-year CVD risk. Among participants with MetS gender, TG, SBP, FBS and in people without MetS gender, TG, SBP, FBS, and HDL showed strong associations with the predicted 10-year CVD risk. Conclusion: Male sex and increased SBP, TG, and FBS parameters were strongly associated with increased 10-year risk of CVD in people with and without MetS. In people without MetS, reduced HDL-cholestrol was strongly associated with increased 10-year risk of CVD. The recognition of participant's TG, blood pressure (BP), FBS and planning appropriate lifestyle interventions related to these characteristics is an important step towards prevention of CVD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Understanding the effects of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition on the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important to improve public health initiatives. However, the 10-year risk of AF considering risk factor burden and genetic predisposition is unknown. Methods A total of 348,904 genetically unrelated participants without AF at baseline from the UK were categorized into three groups: index ages 45 years (n = 84,206), 55 years (n=117,520), and 65 years (n=147,178). Optimal, borderline, or elevated risk factor burden was determined by body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and history of myocardial infarction or heart failure. Genetic predisposition was estimated using the polygenic risk score (PRS), constructed using 165 predefined genetic risk variants. The combined effects of risk factor burden and PRS on the risk of incident AF in 10 years were estimated for each index age. Fine and Gray models were developed to predict the 10-year risk of AF. Results The overall 10-year risk of AF was 0.67% (95% CI: 0.61–0.73%) for index age 45 years, 2.05% (95% CI: 1.96–2.13%) for index age 55 years, and 6.34% (95% CI: 6.21–6.46%) for index age 65 years, respectively. An optimal risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset regardless of genetic predisposition and sex (P < 0.001). Significant synergistic interactions were observed for risk factor burden with PRS at each index age (P < 0.05). Participants with an elevated risk factor burden and high PRS had the highest 10-year risk of AF in reference to those who had both an optimal risk factor burden and a low PRS. At younger ages, optimal risk burden and high PRS might also lead to later onset of AF, compared to the joint effect of elevated risk burden and low/intermediate PRS. Conclusions Risk factor burden together with a genetic predisposition is associated with the 10-year risk of AF. Our results may be helpful in selecting high-risk individuals for primary prevention of AF and facilitating subsequent health interventions.

Background: Understanding the effects of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition on the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important to improve public health initiatives. However, the 10-year risk of AF considering risk factor burden and genetic predisposition is unknown. Methods: A total of 348,904 genetically unrelated participants without AF at baseline from the UK were categorized into three groups: index ages 45 years (n = 84,206), 55 years (n=117,520), and 65 years (n=147,178). Optimal, borderline, or elevated risk factor burden was determined by body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and history of myocardial infarction or heart failure. Genetic predisposition was estimated using the polygenic risk score (PRS), constructed using 165 predefined genetic risk variants. The combined effects of risk factor burden and PRS on the risk of incident AF in 10 years were estimated for each index age. Fine and Gray models were developed to predict the 10-year risk of AF. Results: The overall 10-year risk of AF was 0.67% (95% CI: 0.61–0.73%) for index age 45 years, 2.05% (95% CI: 1.96–2.13%) for index age 55 years, and 6.34% (95% CI: 6.21–6.46%) for index age 65 years, respectively. An optimal risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset regardless of genetic predisposition and sex (P < 0.001). Significant synergistic interactions were observed for risk factor burden with PRS at each index age (P < 0.05). Participants with an elevated risk factor burden and high PRS had the highest 10-year risk of AF in reference to those who had both an optimal risk factor burden and a low PRS. At younger ages, optimal risk burden and high PRS might also lead to later onset of AF, compared to the joint effect of elevated risk burden and low/intermediate PRS. Conclusions: Risk factor burden together with a genetic predisposition is associated with the 10-year risk of AF. Our results may be helpful in selecting high-risk individuals for primary prevention of AF and facilitating subsequent health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background This study aimed to investigate the association between dietary fiber intake and long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. Methods A total of 14,947 participants aged 20–79 from the NHANES database were included in this study between 2009 and 2018. The atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) score was utilized to predict the 10-year risk of CVD in individuals (low, borderline, intermediate, and high risk). Weighted univariate and multinomial multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the association between dietary fiber intake and long-term CVD risk. Results Higher dietary fiber density may be associated with a reduced ASCVD risk in participants with intermediate risk [odds ratio (OR) = 0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.61–0.94] and high risk (OR = 0.60; 95%CI, 0.45–0.81) compared with those in the group with low risk. Higher total dietary fiber intake may also reduce ASCVD risk in participants with high risk (OR = 0.84; 95%CI, 0.75–0.95). Subgroup analyses showed that higher dietary fiber density may be related to reduced ASCVD risk in intermediate-risk participants aged 20–39 (OR = 0.62; 95%CI, 0.43–0.89) and 40–59 (OR = 0.67; 95%CI, 0.49–0.94). In high-risk participants, higher dietary fiber density may reduce ASCVD risk in 20–39-year-old (OR = 0.38; 95%CI, 0.19–0.77), 40–59-year-old (OR = 0.37; 95%CI, 0.20–0.70), male (OR = 0.47; 95%CI, 0.23–0.97) and female (OR = 0.57; 95%CI, 0.38–0.86) participants. Conclusion Higher dietary fiber density and total dietary fiber intake were associated with a lower long-term CVD risk, especially in the 20–39 and 40–59 age groups, where the reduction was most significant.

BackgroundWhether Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is associated with 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event in the United States remains unclear.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, the participants, ranged from 40 to 79 years old, were from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 1999 and 2018. TyG index was the independent variable and 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD was the dependent variable. The other variables, such as age, gender, race, body mass index (BMI), hypertension treatment states, smoking states and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) et al. were considered as the potential confounding factors. Multivariate linear regression models and smooth curve fittings were used to evaluate the association between TyG index and 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event.ResultsA total of 2,142 participants were included in the analysis. The results showed that TyG index was associated with an increased 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event [β = 2.208, 95% (1.716, 2.700), P < 0.00001]. The association had statistical significance in both men [β = 3.862 95% CI (3.274, 4.450), P < 0.00001] and women [β = 1.067, 95% CI (0.286, 1.849), P = 0.00756)] according to subgroup analysis. Smooth curve fittings revealed that TyG index was linearly associated with 10-year risk of ASCVD in both male and female.ConclusionTriglyceride-glucose index was associated with an increased 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event in the United States, suggesting it is necessary to monitor and control an appropriate range of TyG index.

Background: To test whether dietary magnesium is associated with 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event., Methods: In this cross-sectional study, a total of 2980 participants, aged 40 to 79 years, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2018 were analyzed. The association between dietary magnesium and 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event was assessed following adjustment for clinical risk factors, including sex, age, race, educational level, body mass index (BMI), alcohol drinking, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), hypertension treated or not, diabetes and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total energy and dietary fiber. We performed multivariate linear regression models and smooth curve fittings to evaluate the associations between dietary magnesium and 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event., Results: We observed a significant inverse association between dietary magnesium and predicted 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event (β=-0.01, [95% CI: -0.01, -0.00], P = 0.0256). We divided the 10-year risk into two categories, with a statistically significant reduction of ASCVD risk when the 10-year risk ≥7.5% (β=-0.01, [95% CI: -0.01, -0.00], P = 0.0440)., Conclusions: Dietary magnesium intake was inversely associated with the predicted 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event., Competing Interests: Competing interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: This study aimed to investigate the association between dietary fiber intake and long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database.Methods: A total of 14,947 participants aged 20-79 from the NHANES database were included in this study between 2009 and 2018. The atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) score was utilized to predict the 10-year risk of CVD in individuals (low, borderline, intermediate, and high risk). Weighted univariate and multinomial multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the association between dietary fiber intake and long-term CVD risk.Results: Higher dietary fiber density may be associated with a reduced ASCVD risk in participants with intermediate risk [odds ratio (OR) = 0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.61-0.94] and high risk (OR = 0.60; 95%CI, 0.45-0.81) compared with those in the group with low risk. Higher total dietary fiber intake may also reduce ASCVD risk in participants with high risk (OR = 0.84; 95%CI, 0.75-0.95). Subgroup analyses showed that higher dietary fiber density may be related to reduced ASCVD risk in intermediate-risk participants aged 20-39 (OR = 0.62; 95%CI, 0.43-0.89) and 40-59 (OR = 0.67; 95%CI, 0.49-0.94). In high-risk participants, higher dietary fiber density may reduce ASCVD risk in 20-39-year-old (OR = 0.38; 95%CI, 0.19-0.77), 40-59-year-old (OR = 0.37; 95%CI, 0.20-0.70), male (OR = 0.47; 95%CI, 0.23-0.97) and female (OR = 0.57; 95%CI, 0.38-0.86) participants.Conclusion: Higher dietary fiber density and total dietary fiber intake were associated with a lower long-term CVD risk, especially in the 20-39 and 40-59 age groups, where the reduction was most significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundRemnant cholesterol (Remnant-C), rather than TG, is believed to increase the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We evaluated whether Remnant-C is associated with an estimated 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was performed on 2,048 participants (1,130 men and 918 women), aged 40 to 79 years, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 1999 and 2018. The independent variable was Remnant-C; the dependent variable was the 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event (defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or stroke, over a 10-year period among people free from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease at the beginning of the period). The other variables, such as smoking behavior, hypertension, diabetes etc., were considered as the potential effect modifiers. Multivariate linear regression models and smooth curve fittings were used to evaluate the association between Remnant-C and the 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event. Subgroup analyses stratified by gender and race were also performed.ResultsA positive association between Remnant-C and the 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event was demonstrated in the fully adjusted model (β = 0.078, [95%CI: 0.061–0.094], P < 0.001). The 10-year risk was increased by 0.078% for each 1 mg/dl increase in Remnant-C. In the subgroup analysis for gender, this association remained in both men (β = 0.128, [95%CI: 0.108–0.148], P < 0.001) and women (β = 0.043, [95%CI: 0.016–0.070], P = 0.00179). However, in the subgroup analysis for race, the association between Remnant-C and the 10-year risk reached an inflection point at remnant-C 38 mg/dL, where a positive association was not as obvious for the non-Hispanic Black population as for other racial groups.ConclusionsRemnant-C positively correlates with a 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event.

The objectives of this study are to (1) examine the "10-year cardiovascular risk" in the common carotid artery (CCA) versus carotid bulb using an integrated calculator called "AtheroEdge Composite Risk Score 2.0" (AECRS2.0) and (2) evaluate the performance of AECRS2.0 against "conventional cardiovascular risk calculators." These objectives are met by measuring (1) image-based phenotypes and AECRS2.0 score computation and (2) performance evaluation of AECRS2.0 against 12 conventional cardiovascular risk calculators. The Asian–Indian cohort (n = 379) with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), or hypertension were retrospectively analyzed by acquiring the 1516 carotid ultrasound scans (mean age: 55 ± 10.1 years, 67% males, ∼92% with T2DM, ∼83% with CKD [stage 1-5], and 87.5% with hypertension [stage 1-2]). The carotid bulb showed a higher 10-year cardiovascular risk compared to the CCA by 18% (P <.0001). Patients with T2DM and/or CKD also followed a similar trend. The carotid bulb demonstrated a superior risk assessment compared to CCA in patients with T2DM and/or CKD by showing: (1) ∼13% better than CCA (0.93 vs 0.82, P =.0001) and (2) ∼29% better compared with 12 types of risk conventional calculators (0.93 vs 0.72, P =.06). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of dietary saturated, monounsaturated, or polyunsaturated fatty acids on the risk of cardiovascular events remain controversial. This cross-sectional study was performed in 4211 patients, aged 40 to 79 years, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 1999 and 2018. The independent variables were saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids. The dependent variable was the 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular event. The other variables were considered as the potential confounding factors. Multivariate linear regression models and smooth curve fittings were used to evaluate the association between saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, or monounsaturated fatty acids and the 10-year risk. There was no association between dietary saturated fatty acids and 10-year risk after adjusting for all the potential confounding factors; 10-year risk decreased by 0.022% each 1-g increase in monounsaturated fatty acids intake from 0 to 153.772 g, and 0.025% each 1-g increase in polyunsaturated fatty acids intake from 0 to 98.323 g, respectively. Moreover, subgroup analysis showed that monounsaturated fatty acids and polyunsaturated fatty acids were both negatively correlated to 10-year risk in nondiabetes and non-high–low-density lipoprotein patients; monounsaturated fatty acids were also negatively associated with 10-year risk in hypertensive patients. There was no association between dietary saturated fatty acids and 10-year risk. Increased dietary intake of monounsaturated fatty acids or polyunsaturated fatty acids decreased 10-year risk, particularly in nondiabetes, non-high-low density lipoprotein patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Whether Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is associated with 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event in the United States remains unclear., Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the participants, ranged from 40 to 79 years old, were from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 1999 and 2018. TyG index was the independent variable and 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD was the dependent variable. The other variables, such as age, gender, race, body mass index (BMI), hypertension treatment states, smoking states and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) et al. were considered as the potential confounding factors. Multivariate linear regression models and smooth curve fittings were used to evaluate the association between TyG index and 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event., Results: A total of 2,142 participants were included in the analysis. The results showed that TyG index was associated with an increased 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event [β = 2.208, 95% (1.716, 2.700), P < 0.00001]. The association had statistical significance in both men [β = 3.862 95% CI (3.274, 4.450), P < 0.00001] and women [β = 1.067, 95% CI (0.286, 1.849), P = 0.00756)] according to subgroup analysis. Smooth curve fittings revealed that TyG index was linearly associated with 10-year risk of ASCVD in both male and female., Conclusion: Triglyceride-glucose index was associated with an increased 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event in the United States, suggesting it is necessary to monitor and control an appropriate range of TyG index., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Qu, Long, Chen, Wu, Fu and Zhang.)

Initial risk assessment to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is completed by Framingham Risk Score (FRS). In 2012 2 modifications were added to FRS by the Canadian Cardiovascular Society: FRS is doubled in subjects aged 30-59 years who have CVD present in a first-degree relative before 55 years of age for men and 65 years of age for women; and cardiovascular age is calculated for each individual. Our aim was to implement these modifications and evaluate differences compared with traditional FRS. Further, we evaluated the association between dietary intake and 10-year risk. The Canadian Health Measures Survey data cycle 1 was used among participants aged 30-74 years ( n = 2730). Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were conducted using STATA SE 11. Using modified FRS for predicting 10-year risk of CVD significantly increased the estimated risk compared with the traditional approach, 8.66% ± 0.35% versus 6.06% ± 0.18%, respectively. Greater impact was observed with the 'cardiovascular age' modification in men versus women. The distribution of Canadians in low- (<10%) and high-risk (≥20%) categories of CVD show a significant difference between modified and traditional FRS: 67.4% versus 79.6% (low risk) and 13.7% versus 4.5% (high risk), respectively. The odds of having risk ≥10% was significantly greater in low-educated, abdominally obese individuals or those with lower consumption of breakfast cereal and fruit and vegetable and greater potato and potato products consumption. In conclusion, the traditional FRS method significantly underestimates CVD risk in Canadians; thus, applying modified FRS is beneficial for screening. Additionally, fibre consumption from fruit and vegetable or breakfast cereals might be beneficial in reducing CVD risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To establish the distribution of 10-year risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and eligibility for therapeutic approaches among Tehranian adults within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). Study design: Cross-sectional study conducted on data from Phase III of the TLGS (12,521 people aged ≥3 years). Methods: The modified Framingham algorithm adopted by the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III was used to estimate participants' 10-year risk of developing CHD; only participants aged 20-79 years were included. Following the exclusion of subjects without full relevant data, 9483 participants (42.6% men) were enrolled in the final analysis. The distributions of the population needing therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLCs) and additional drug therapy were calculated. Results: Overall, the mean (standard deviation) age was 43.7 (15.4) years; 44.6 (15.9) for men and 43.0 (14.9) for women. Ten-year risk for CHD of <10%, 10-20% and >20% was observed in 86.0%, 12.0% and 2.0% of participants with at least two risk factors and without CHD or a CHD risk equivalent, respectively. For subjects with less than two risk factors and without CHD or a CHD risk equivalent, these values were 14.0%, 8.3% and 14.7%, respectively; 63.1% of subjects had less than two risk factors. The need for TLCs and additional drug therapy was observed in 12% and 12.5% of subjects, respectively. Conclusions: Regarding the estimated 10-year risk for CHD, about one-quarter of Tehranian adults are eligible for therapeutic approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Remnant cholesterol (Remnant-C), rather than TG, is believed to increase the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We evaluated whether Remnant-C is associated with an estimated 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event., Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on 2,048 participants (1,130 men and 918 women), aged 40 to 79 years, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 1999 and 2018. The independent variable was Remnant-C; the dependent variable was the 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event (defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or stroke, over a 10-year period among people free from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease at the beginning of the period). The other variables, such as smoking behavior, hypertension, diabetes etc., were considered as the potential effect modifiers. Multivariate linear regression models and smooth curve fittings were used to evaluate the association between Remnant-C and the 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event. Subgroup analyses stratified by gender and race were also performed., Results: A positive association between Remnant-C and the 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event was demonstrated in the fully adjusted model (β = 0.078, [95%CI: 0.061-0.094], P < 0.001). The 10-year risk was increased by 0.078% for each 1 mg/dl increase in Remnant-C. In the subgroup analysis for gender, this association remained in both men (β = 0.128, [95%CI: 0.108-0.148], P < 0.001) and women (β = 0.043, [95%CI: 0.016-0.070], P = 0.00179). However, in the subgroup analysis for race, the association between Remnant-C and the 10-year risk reached an inflection point at remnant-C 38 mg/dL, where a positive association was not as obvious for the non-Hispanic Black population as for other racial groups., Conclusions: Remnant-C positively correlates with a 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Yang, Yang, Shi, Yang, Zhang, Gao, Shi and Qu.)

Recent Findings: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and poses challenges for healthcare providers globally. Risk-based approaches for the management of CVD are becoming popular for recommending treatment plans for asymptomatic individuals. Several conventional predictive CVD risk models based do not provide an accurate CVD risk assessment for patients with different baseline risk profiles. Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have changed the landscape of CVD risk assessment and demonstrated a better performance when compared against conventional models, mainly due to its ability to handle the input nonlinear variations. Further, it has the flexibility to add risk factors derived from medical imaging modalities that image the morphology of the plaque. The integration of noninvasive carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes with conventional risk factors in the AI framework has further provided stronger power for CVD risk prediction, so-called "integrated predictive CVD risk models.", Purpose: of the review: The objective of this review is (i) to understand several aspects in the development of predictive CVD risk models, (ii) to explore current conventional predictive risk models and their successes and challenges, and (iii) to refine the search for predictive CVD risk models using noninvasive carotid ultrasound as an exemplar in the artificial intelligence-based framework., Conclusion: Conventional predictive CVD risk models are suboptimal and could be improved. This review examines the potential to include more noninvasive image-based phenotypes in the CVD risk assessment using powerful AI-based strategies., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Statistically derived cardiovascular risk calculators (CVRC) that use conventional risk factors, generally underestimate or overestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or stroke events primarily due to lack of integration of plaque burden. This study investigates the role of machine learning (ML)-based CVD/stroke risk calculators (CVRC ML ) and compares against statistically derived CVRC (CVRC Stat ) based on (I) conventional factors or (II) combined conventional with plaque burden (integrated factors)., Methods: The proposed study is divided into 3 parts: (I) statistical calculator: initially, the 10-year CVD/stroke risk was computed using 13 types of CVRC Stat (without and with plaque burden) and binary risk stratification of the patients was performed using the predefined thresholds and risk classes; (II) ML calculator: using the same risk factors (without and with plaque burden), as adopted in 13 different CVRC Stat , the patients were again risk-stratified using CVRC ML based on support vector machine (SVM) and finally; (III) both types of calculators were evaluated using AUC based on ROC analysis, which was computed using combination of predicted class and endpoint equivalent to CVD/stroke events., Results: An Institutional Review Board approved 202 patients (156 males and 46 females) of Japanese ethnicity were recruited for this study with a mean age of 69±11 years. The AUC for 13 different types of CVRC Stat calculators were: AECRS2.0 (AUC 0.83, P<0.001), QRISK3 (AUC 0.72, P<0.001), WHO (AUC 0.70, P<0.001), ASCVD (AUC 0.67, P<0.001), FRS cardio (AUC 0.67, P<0.01), FRS stroke (AUC 0.64, P<0.001), MSRC (AUC 0.63, P=0.03), UKPDS56 (AUC 0.63, P<0.001), NIPPON (AUC 0.63, P<0.001), PROCAM (AUC 0.59, P<0.001), RRS (AUC 0.57, P<0.001), UKPDS60 (AUC 0.53, P<0.001), and SCORE (AUC 0.45, P<0.001), while the AUC for the CVRC ML with integrated risk factors (AUC 0.88, P<0.001), a 42% increase in performance. The overall risk-stratification accuracy for the CVRC ML with integrated risk factors was 92.52% which was higher compared all the other CVRC Stat., Conclusions: ML-based CVD/stroke risk calculator provided a higher predictive ability of 10-year CVD/stroke compared to the 13 different types of statistically derived risk calculators including integrated model AECRS 2.0., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/cdt.2020.01.07). The series “Advanced Imaging in The Diagnosis of Cardiovascular Diseases” was commissioned by the editorial office without any funding or sponsorship. LS served as the unpaid Guest Editor of the series and serves as an unpaid editorial board member of Cardiovascular Diagnosis and Therapy from July 2019 to June 2021. JSS is affiliated to AtheroPointTM, focused in the area of stroke and cardiovascular imaging. The authors have no other conflicts of interest to declare., (2020 Cardiovascular Diagnosis and Therapy. All rights reserved.)

Background: Most cardiovascular (CV)/stroke risk calculators using the integration of carotid ultrasound image-based phenotypes (CUSIP) with conventional risk factors (CRF) have shown improved risk stratification compared with either method. However such approaches have not yet leveraged the potential of machine learning (ML). Most intelligent ML strategies use follow-ups for the endpoints but are costly and time-intensive. We introduce an integrated ML system using stenosis as an endpoint for training and determine whether such a system can lead to superior performance compared with the conventional ML system., Methods: The ML-based algorithm consists of an offline and online system. The offline system extracts 47 features which comprised of 13 CRF and 34 CUSIP. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to select the most significant features. These offline features were then trained using the event-equivalent gold standard (consisting of percentage stenosis) using a random forest (RF) classifier framework to generate training coefficients. The online system then transforms the PCA-based test features using offline trained coefficients to predict the risk labels on test subjects. The above ML system determines the area under the curve (AUC) using a 10-fold cross-validation paradigm. The above system so-called "AtheroRisk-Integrated" was compared against "AtheroRisk-Conventional", where only 13 CRF were considered in a feature set., Results: Left and right common carotid arteries of 202 Japanese patients (Toho University, Japan) were retrospectively examined to obtain 395 ultrasound scans. AtheroRisk-Integrated system [AUC =0.80, P<0.0001, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77 to 0.84] showed an improvement of ~18% against AtheroRisk-Conventional ML (AUC =0.68, P<0.0001, 95% CI: 0.64 to 0.72)., Conclusions: ML-based integrated model with the event-equivalent gold standard as percentage stenosis is powerful and offers low cost and high performance CV/stroke risk assessment., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: Dr. Suri is affiliated to AtheroPoint™, focused in the area of stroke and cardiovascular imaging. Dr. Bhatt discloses the following relationships—Advisory Board: Cardax, Cereno Scientific, Elsevier Practice Update Cardiology, Medscape Cardiology, PhaseBio, Regado Biosciences; Board of Directors: Boston VA Research Institute, Society of Cardiovascular Patient Care, TobeSoft; Chair: American Heart Association Quality Oversight Committee; Data Monitoring Committees: Baim Institute for Clinical Research (formerly Harvard Clinical Research Institute, for the PORTICO trial, funded by St. Jude Medical, now Abbott), Cleveland Clinic (including for the ExCEED trial, funded by Edwards), Duke Clinical Research Institute, Mayo Clinic, Mount Sinai School of Medicine (for the ENVISAGE trial, funded by Daiichi Sankyo), Population Health Research Institute; Honoraria: American College of Cardiology (Senior Associate Editor, Clinical Trials and News, ACC.org; Vice-Chair, ACC Accreditation Committee), Baim Institute for Clinical Research (formerly Harvard Clinical Research Institute; RE-DUAL PCI clinical trial steering committee funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; AEGIS-II executive committee funded by CSL Behring), Belvoir Publications (Editor in Chief, Harvard Heart Letter), Duke Clinical Research Institute (clinical trial steering committees), HMP Global (Editor in Chief, Journal of Invasive Cardiology), Journal of the American College of Cardiology (Guest Editor; Associate Editor), Medtelligence/ReachMD (CME steering committees), Population Health Research Institute (for the COMPASS operations committee, publications committee, steering committee, and USA national co-leader, funded by Bayer), Slack Publications (Chief Medical Editor, Cardiology Today’s Intervention), Society of Cardiovascular Patient Care (Secretary/Treasurer), WebMD (CME steering committees); Other: Clinical Cardiology (Deputy Editor), NCDR-ACTION Registry Steering Committee (Chair), VA CART Research and Publications Committee (Chair); Research Funding: Abbott, Amarin, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chiesi, CSL Behring, Eisai, Ethicon, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Forest Laboratories, Idorsia, Ironwood, Ischemix, Lilly, Medtronic, PhaseBio, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sanofi Aventis, Synaptic, The Medicines Company; Royalties: Elsevier (Editor, Cardiovascular Intervention: A Companion to Braunwald’s Heart Disease); Site Co-Investigator: Biotronik, Boston Scientific, St. Jude Medical (now Abbott), Svelte; Trustee: American College of Cardiology; Unfunded Research: FlowCo, Fractyl, Merck, Novo Nordisk, PLx Pharma, Takeda. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (2019 Cardiovascular Diagnosis and Therapy. All rights reserved.)

Numerous large randomized clinical trials have shown that statin therapy is effective and safe for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) for adults aged 40 to 75 years and support the use of 10-year CVD risk as a means to identify individuals for treatment. Uncertainty exists in those older than 75 years who may be more likely to benefit because of their underlying CVD risk, but also face uncertain harms. Several high-quality mathematical simulation models have shown that statin therapy is cost-effective for primary prevention of atherosclerotic CVD. Despite effectiveness and safety, statins are underutilized for primary prevention., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)