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The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the use of color-coded cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk charts for CVD management. This study evaluated the agreement between the laboratory and non-laboratory 10-year CVD risks based on 2019 WHO CVD risk-prediction charts. The agreement of CVD risk scores among 40- to 69-year-old Bhutanese population stratified by gender and age groups (<60 and ≥60 years) was determined via weighted kappa statistics. In the general population, there was substantial agreement between the two CVD risk score charts for all ages and <60 years but a moderate agreement for participants aged ≥60 years. In males, substantial agreement was observed in all ages and in <60 years and moderate agreement in ≥60 years. In females, both the predictions showed substantial agreement in all ages and <60, but a moderate agreement for ≥60 years. The non-laboratory-based risk charts can be used interchangeably with laboratory-based charts for predicting 10-year CVD risk in resource-constrained countries like Bhutan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The relationship between metabolically healthy obese individuals (MHO) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is disputed. This study investigated the association of metabolically unhealthy non-obese(MUNO) individuals and MHO with arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk. Methods A total of 13,435 participants were enrolled and further divided into the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) phenotype (n = 4927), MUNO phenotype (n = 1971), MHO phenotype (n = 2537) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotype (n = 4000) according to body mass index (BMI) and metabolic status. We used brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) to measure arterial stiffness and the Framingham risk score (FRS) to evaluate the 10-year CVD risk. Results The MUO and MUNO phenotypes had higher mean baPWV values than the MHO and MHNO phenotypes, regardless of age (1446.19 ± 233.65 vs. 1423.29 ± 240.72 vs. 1283.57 ± 213.77 vs. 1234.08 ± 215.99 cm/s, P

Background: The relationship between metabolically healthy obese individuals (MHO) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is disputed. This study investigated the association of metabolically unhealthy non-obese(MUNO) individuals and MHO with arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk. Methods: A total of 13,435 participants were enrolled and further divided into the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) phenotype (n = 4927), MUNO phenotype (n = 1971), MHO phenotype (n = 2537) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotype (n = 4000) according to body mass index (BMI) and metabolic status. We used brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) to measure arterial stiffness and the Framingham risk score (FRS) to evaluate the 10-year CVD risk. Results: The MUO and MUNO phenotypes had higher mean baPWV values than the MHO and MHNO phenotypes, regardless of age (1446.19 ± 233.65 vs. 1423.29 ± 240.72 vs. 1283.57 ± 213.77 vs. 1234.08 ± 215.99 cm/s, P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the MUNO and MUO phenotypes were independently correlated with elevated baPWV and 10-year CVD risk, while the MHO phenotype was independently associated with only the 10-year CVD risk. In metabolically healthy subjects, BMI showed a dose-dependent increase in the risk of elevated baPWV, with an adjusted OR of 1.007 (95% CI 1.004–1.010, P < 0.001). However, in metabolically unhealthy participants, the estimate for the relationship between elevated baPWV and BMI was nonsignificant. Conclusions: The MUNO phenotype exhibits increased arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk. However, BMI is positively and dose-dependently correlated with arterial stiffness only in metabolically healthy subjects. We speculate that metabolic status may be a strong confounder in the obesity–elevated baPWV association. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: To improve upon the estimation of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) event risk for individuals without prior CVD or diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region by systematic recalibration of the SCORE2 risk algorithm., Methods: The sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted SCORE2 algorithms were systematically recalibrated to reflect CVD incidence observed in four Asia-Pacific risk regions, defined according to country-level World Health Organization age- and sex-standardized CVD mortality rates. Using the same approach as applied for the original SCORE2 models, recalibration to each risk region was completed using expected CVD incidence and risk factor distributions from each region., Results: Risk region-specific CVD incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 8,405,574 individuals (556,421 CVD events). For external validation, data from 9,560,266 individuals without previous CVD or diabetes were analysed in 13 prospective studies from 12 countries (350,550 incident CVD events). The pooled C-index of the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms in the external validation data sets was 0.710 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.677-0.745). Cohort-specific C-indices ranged from 0.605 (95% CI 0.597-0.613) to 0.840 (95% CI 0.771-0.909). Estimated CVD risk varied several-fold across Asia-Pacific risk regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old non-smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 7% for men in low-risk countries to 14% for men in very-high-risk countries, and from 3% for women in low-risk countries to 13% for women in very-high-risk countries., Conclusions: The SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms have been calibrated to estimate 10-year risk of CVD for apparently healthy people in Asia and Oceania, thereby enhancing the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across the Asia-Pacific region., (© 2024 the European Society of Cardiology, the Asian Pacific Society of Cardiology, and the ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) Federation of Cardiology.)

Background and AimsDietary factor plays an important role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The healthy eating index-2015 (HEI-2015), an indicator of the overall dietary quality, has been introduced to reflect adherence to the 2015–2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). This study aims to explore the associations of the HEI-2015 with predicted 10-year CVD risk and heart age among United States adults aged 30–74 years old using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2014.Methods and ResultsWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis among 6,614 participants aged 30–74 years old. The HEI-2015 scores were calculated from 2-days 24-h dietary recall interviews. The 10-year CVD risk and heart age were derived from the sex-specific Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score. We defined high cardiovascular disease risk as a predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk of > 20%. Multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations of the HEI-2015 with predicted 10-year CVD risk and heart age. Compared with participants in the lowest HEI-2015 quartile, those in the highest quartile had lower predicted 10-year CVD risk (β = −2.37, 95% CI: −3.09 to –1.65, P < 0.0001), lower heart age (β = −2.63, 95% CI: −3.29 to –1.96, P < 0.0001) and lower odds for high risk of CVD (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.80, P-trend < 0.0001) after adjusting for multiple covariates.ConclusionHigher adherence to the 2015–2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans is associated with lower predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and lower heart age among United States adults.

To evaluate the association of shift work with 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Chinese workers. We included 23,064 workers in the first follow-up of the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study. Questionnaires and physical examinations were conducted to collect data for all participants. Framingham Risk Score was calculated according to the multivariable risk algorithms, and used to evaluate 10-year CVD risk. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between shift work and 10-year CVD risk. Among 23,064 individuals, 51.92% of workers suffered shift work, and the proportions of shift work duration of 1-<10, 10-<20, and ≥20 years were 17.29%, 17.35% and 17.30%, respectively. Compared with individuals without a shift work history, the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 10-year CVD were 1.027 (0.900–1.173), 1.058 (0.927–1.206) and 1.191 (1.036–1.368) for individuals with shift work duration of 1-<10 years, 10-<20 years, and ≥20 years, respectively, after adjusting for potential confounders. And the association was more obvious in males. When shift work and obesity were combined, the OR (95%CI) of high 10-year CVD risk (3.373, 2.390–4.761) was significantly increased for obese individuals with shift work of ≥20 years. Besides, the OR (95%CI) for higher 10-year CVD risk associated with shift work decreased as the leaving shift work duration prolonged. Shift work is associated with a higher 10-year CVD risk, especially among males. Obesity has a synergistic effect on such association while leaving shift work reduces such association. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims  The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions. Methods and results  Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C -indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61–0.65] and 0.67 (0.64–0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk. Conclusions  The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and consequential cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are on the increase in Nigeria. The study aimed to identify the prevalence of 10-year CVD risk in a Nigerian population and assess its relationship with different indices of MetS. Method: A cross-sectional study was carried out on apparently healthy persons aged 18 years of age or older. Ten-year risk was calculated using the ATPIII/Framingham criteria. Subjects with risk score <10% were considered as having low risk, 10-20% moderate risk and >20% at high risk of developing CVD in 10 years. MetS was defined based on the Joint Scientific Statement on Harmonizing the MetS. Result: Of the 211 subjects, mean age was 51.3±17.3 years. Average risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years was 3.7±5.3%. Prevalence of low, moderate and high risk of developing CVD among study participants was 86.3% (95% CI 82.0-91.3%), 11.8% (95% CI 6.9-16.1%) and 1.9% (95% CI 0.0-3.8%), respectively. Prevalence of MetS was 26.7% (95% CI 21.0-33.3%). There was poor agreement between MetS and the CVD risk scores (kappa= 0.209, p=0.001) Conclusions: The results showed that complementary use of MetS and CVD risk score is imperative, as there is indication of risk in individuals without MetS. Also a large proportion of the study population requires lifestyle intervention. These findings provide the evidence necessary to tailor public health interventions in this population, especially towards younger age groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: Dietary factor plays an important role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The healthy eating index-2015 (HEI-2015), an indicator of the overall dietary quality, has been introduced to reflect adherence to the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). This study aims to explore the associations of the HEI-2015 with predicted 10-year CVD risk and heart age among United States adults aged 30-74 years old using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2014., Methods and Results: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis among 6,614 participants aged 30-74 years old. The HEI-2015 scores were calculated from 2-days 24-h dietary recall interviews. The 10-year CVD risk and heart age were derived from the sex-specific Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score. We defined high cardiovascular disease risk as a predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk of > 20%. Multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations of the HEI-2015 with predicted 10-year CVD risk and heart age. Compared with participants in the lowest HEI-2015 quartile, those in the highest quartile had lower predicted 10-year CVD risk (β = -2.37, 95% CI: -3.09 to -1.65, P < 0.0001), lower heart age (β = -2.63, 95% CI: -3.29 to -1.96, P < 0.0001) and lower odds for high risk of CVD (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.80, P -trend < 0.0001) after adjusting for multiple covariates., Conclusion: Higher adherence to the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans is associated with lower predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and lower heart age among United States adults., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The reviewer XW declared a past collaboration with one of the authors LZ to the handling editor., (Copyright © 2022 Zhang, Lu, Li, Fan, Li, Liu, Yu and Zhou.)

Aims: The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe., Methods and Results: We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries., Conclusion: SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2021. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions., Methods and Results: Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C-indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65] and 0.67 (0.64-0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk., Conclusions: The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2021. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Non-traditional image markers can improve the traditional cardiovascular risk estimation, is untested in Kerala based participants., Objective: To identify the relationship between the 'Modified CV risk' categories with traditional and non-traditional image-based risk markers. The correlation and improvement in reclassification, achieved by pooling atherosclerotic non-traditional markers with Intermediate (≥7.5% and <20%) and High (≥20%) 10-year participants is evaluated., Methods: The cross-sectional study with 594 participants has the ultrasound measurements recorded from the medical archives of clinical locations at Ernakulum district, Kerala. With carotid Intima-Media Thickness (cIMT) measurement, the Plaque (cP) complexity was computed using selected plaque characteristics to compute the carotid Total Plaque Risk Score (cTPRS) for superior risk tagging. Statistical analysis was done using RStudio, the classification accuracy was verified using the decision tree algorithm., Results: The mean age of the participants was (58.14±10.05) years. The mean cIMT was (0.956±0.302) mm, with 65.6% plaque incidence. With 94.90% variability around its mean, the Multinomial Logistic Regression model identifies cIMT and cTPRS, age, diabetics, Familial Hypercholesterolemia (FH), Hypertension treatment, the presence of Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) as significant (p<0.05). cIMT and cP were found significant for 'Intermediate High', 'High' and 'Very High' 'Modified CV risk' categories. However, age, diabetes, gender and use of hypertension treatment are significant for the 'Intermediate' 'Modified CV risk' category. The overall performance of the MLR model was 80.5%. The classification accuracy verified using the decision tree algorithm has 78.7% accuracy., Conclusion: The use of atherosclerotic markers shows a significant correlation suitable for a nextlevel reclassification of the traditional CV risk., (Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.net.)

Background: Accuracy of Joint British Society calculator3 (JBS3) cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment tool may vary across the Indian states, which is not verified in south Indian, Kerala based population., Objectives: To evaluate the traditional risk factors (TRFs) based CV risk estimation done in Kerala based population., Methods: This cross-sectional study uses details of 977 subjects aged between 30 and 80 years, recorded from the medical archives of clinical locations at Ernakulum district, in Kerala. The risk categories used are Low (<7.5%), Intermediate (≥7.5% and <20%), and High (≥20%) 10-year risk classifications. The lifetime classifications are Low lifetime (≤39%) and High lifetime (≥40%) are used. The study evaluated using statistical analysis; the Chi-square test was used for dependent and categorical CV risk variable comparisons. A multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis for the 10-year risk and odds logistic regression analysis for the lifetime risk model identified the significant risk variables., Results: The mean age of the study population is 52.56±11.43 years. With 39.1% in low, 25.0% in intermediate, and 35.9% has high 10-year risk. Low lifetime risk with 41.1%, the high lifetime risk has 58.9% subjects. The intermediate 10-year risk category shows the highest reclassifications to High lifetime risk. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics indicates a good model fit., Conclusion: Timely interventions using risk predictions can aid in appropriate therapeutic and lifestyle modifications useful for primary prevention. Precaution to avoid short-term incidences and reclassifications to a high lifetime risk can reduce the CVD related mortality rates., (Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.net.)